Month: April 2015

2015 New York Mets Predictions

Chris McGlynn Baseball, MLB ,

by Brian Mandel

After months of waiting, Opening day or should I say Opening Night has finally arrived. Yesterday ended what was one of the craziest MLB offseason ever with a last minute trade that sent Kimbrel and Upton Jr. to the upstart Padres.

This wild offseason brought parity to a league that last season saw some of the most parity the sport has ever seen. Almost every team has chance to make the playoffs, and for the first time in the Sandy Alderson era, the Mets do too.

Last year the Mets ended off with a 79-83 record in what was thought of as a lost season with the absence of Matt Harvey while he was recovering from Tommy John. However, the team showed improvements throughout the season with players like National League Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom, Gold Glove winner Juan Lagares and the Mets upstart bullpen full of young flamethrowers. Finally, after years of the front office saying next year, it looks like 2015 is the year where the Mets could contend for a playoff spot. Although, some people think the quite offseason will hinder the team this year, the real game changers are the return of Harvey and Wright to all-star form. .

Here are my grades and predictions for the Mets this season:

Starting Rotation: B+
Opening Day:
Bartolo Colon R
Jacob Degrom R
Jon Neise L
Matt Harvey R
Dillon Gee R

The rotation is seen as the Mets strength coming into the season and what could possibly carry them to a wild card berth. Every great Met team was centered around the starting pitching. Unfortunately, the rotation took a big hit with the loss of Zach Wheeler to Tommy John during spring training, but the Mets were able to recover slightly because of their immense pitching depth. The Mets were not able to trade Dillon Gee over the offseason and he was going to be an afterthought in the bullpen, but he was able to regain his rotation spot with the Wheeler injury. Look for Gee to be a veteran presence that will once again rely on off speed pitches. Bartolo Colon will be going into his final year of his contract and will keep his role as the underrated veteran innings eater on the team. Furthermore, deGrom hopes to build off of his rookie campaign. The two biggest question marks are Harvey and Neise. Can Harvey return to all-star form? Can Neise go through a full season healthy? If the team lives up to its potential it could be a top five rotation in the MLB. Also, look for the mid-season call ups of Noah Syndergaard (Thor) and Steven Matz, two guys who could be rotation staples of the future.

Bullpen: B+
Opening Day:
Closer: Jenry Mejia R
Set-Up: Jeurys Familia R
Carlos Torres R
Sean Gilmartin L
Buddy Carlyle R
Jerry Belvins L
Alex Torres L

The Mets bullpen is coming off one of their best seasons in recent memory. They went off the Cardinal’s mold of converting hard throwing starters in the minors into high leverage relief pitchers. Mejia and Familia look like one of the best young one two punches in baseball. Of course the bullpen did not escape Spring Training without and injury. They lost LOOGY Josh Edgin to Tommy John, but Alderson was able to recover with trades for Belivns and Torres. Look for rule 5 draft pick Gilmartin, long man Carlos Torres and minor league signee Carlyle to be solid role players. The biggest X-Factors of the bullpen with be the return of Bobby Parnell and Vic Black, two flamethrowers that can push the bullpen to an elite level.

Lineup: Ranging from C- to B+…let’s go with a B- for now
Opening Day:
Curtis Granderson L
David Wright R
Lucas Duda L
Michael Cuddyer R
Daniel Murphy L
Juan Lagares R
Travis d’Arnaud R
Wilmer Flores R
Pitcher
Why a range? This is the biggest question mark of the whole team. Hopefully, some of the Spring Training hitting and new hitting coach Kevin Long’s philosophy will translate to the regular season. Granderson looks to improve on a shaky first year with the Amazins’. It seems like reuniting him with his old hitting coach allowed him to change his approach using all fields. Coming off his shoulder injury David Wright, the heart and soul of the team, will make or break this line up. Lucas Duda is coming off his first 30 homerun campaign and for the first time will be coming into the season the starting first baseman. If he learns to hit lefties then the Met’s will that much more dangerous. Cuddyer and Murphy are both professional hitters and when healthy should be solid contributors to the lineup.   Defense was never a question for Lagares, but his hitting was. Last season he silenced some doubter by hitting .282. However, he had three separate trips to the DL and has to build off last year improving his OBP. The biggest question marks are d’Arnaud and Flores. We saw d’Arnaud’s potential last year in the second half, but he has to do that over a whole season. Flores’s name has been around for years but he hasn’t proven much in the Show yet. With all of the question marks of injury, down years and break out years the Mets offense can be anything form what have see the past five years to a solid line up from 1-9.

Fielding: B
Opening Day:
C: D’Arnaud
1B: Duda
2B: Murphy
3B: Wright
SS: Flores
LF: Cuddyer
CF: Lagares
RF: Granderson
Bench: Rueben Tejada, John Mayberry Jr., Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Anthony Recker

The Mets defense has anything from Gold Glovers to well below average defenders. Look for Lagares to anchor down center field catching anything that come his way. He is the first outfielder since Andruw Jones to have two years of 28 defensive runs saved in a row. However, Cuddyer and Granderson are both below league average defender, but Lagares should equalize that out. The captain, David Wright, will command the infield playing Gold Glove caliber defense at third. Although everyone thinks Flores cannot play SS, his arm counteracts his range. You will not see him making any web gems, but he makes all of the easy plays. At the keystone, Murphy will have below average defense. Duda will play above average defense at first. Finally, d’Arnaud did lead the league in past balls last year, but he is one of the best pitch framers in the Show. An important thing for team that will rely on their pitching. All in all the positives out way the negatives in the Mets defense and they will have an above average defense.

Manager: C+
Terry Collins

Terry Collins will be on the hot seat this year because this is now the time for the Mets to start winning. He is a fiery manger that will get out and argue with the ump. He also prefers veterans starting over the young players which is counter intuitive for a rebuilding team. Furthermore, his bullpen methods are not very good. He tends to pick one arm every year and burn it out. Many Mets fans want change asking for guys like Wally Backman. I’ll give Terry the benefit of the doubt.

Overall Prediction: 85-77
Like I have said before, the season is on the shoulders of David Wright and Matt Harvey. If they have good seasons, then the Mets can contend for a while card spot. The team will have to rely on the starting rotation and the bullpen. They are in the mold of last year’s Royals with a strong rotation and bullpen and solid starting lineup. Let’s Go Mets.

2015 New York Yankees predictions

Chris McGlynn Baseball, MLB ,

by Matt Luppino

Ah, it’s the most wonderful time of the year. No it’s not the holiday season, it’s not summer vacation, and it’s not even March Madness (technically it’s April Madness now).

That’s right.  It’s baseball season once again. A time when everything in a sport completely resets. A time when last place teams can win a championship a season later. And a time when Yankee fans once again revel in the past… wait, that’s every day.

This year’s 2015 Yankees face an uphill battle after what frankly the ball club will call an unsuccessful season last year. Finishing 84-78 while marred by injuries, the Bronx Bombers missed the playoffs for the second year in a row for the first time since the early 90s, and did not do much to improve. Yes, long time captain, fan favorite, and baseball icon Derek Jeter retired, going out in spectacular fashion in his last home game, but the losses of closer David Robertson, who signed with the Chicago White Sox, and starter Hiroki Kuroda, to the Japanese league, were also unexpected and could prove costly. And of course, after a year-long suspension filled with lawsuits and media hysteria, Alex Rodriguez returns to the diamond.

Here are my grades and predictions for the Yankees this season:

Starting Rotation: B-
Opening Day:
Masahiro Tanaka R
Michael Pineda R
CC Sabathia L
Nathan Eovaldi R
Adam Warren R

The entire Yankees team faces huge question marks, but this is one of their largest.  The rotation was largely affected by injuries last year, some of which are still not resolved.  Tanaka’s elbow, which shut him down after a masterful first half last season, appears healthy but not to full strength.  The same can be said about Sabathia’s knee, though the aging left-hander still needs to learn how to adjust to the lack of velocity in his pitches now, a fact that has haunted him the past few seasons. The addition of the young flamethrower Eovaldi is intriguing, but last season his control often escaped him.  This group has a lot of promise if they manage to pitch to their potential, but there is also a chance that Tanaka and Sabathia could reinjure themselves too.  The X-factor here: Ivan Nova is expected to return from Tommy John surgery in May or June, which would add another strong starter to this team and put Warren back in the bullpen, where he was very strong last year.  If he returns to form, Tanaka once again pitches like the ace we saw a glimpse of last year, and Eovaldi, and Pineda for that matter, find the strike zone, then this could be one of the stronger rotations in baseball.

Bullpen: A-
Opening Day:
Closer: Dellin Betances R
Set-Up: Andrew Miller L
David Carpenter R
Justin Wilson L
Esmil Rogers R
Chasen Shreve L

In spite of the loss of Robertson, one of the top closers in baseball, he could have just been replaced with someone even better.  Betances, an All-Star last season, struck out 135 batters in only 90.0 innings last season, a rate of 13.5 K/ 9 IP.  His ERA of 1.40 and WHIP of 0.78 were among the tops in baseball as well.  He has struggled this spring, but if the adrenaline of a regular season game kicks in, he should be a dominant pitcher once more.  Crafty lefty Andrew Miller offers a strong alternative, for he is equally strong against batters on both sides of the plate.  David Carpenter and Justin Wilson are hard throwers, righty and lefty-specialists respectively.  Plug Warren back into here, and this is one of the best pens in baseball.

Lineup: Ranging from C- to B+…let’s go with a B- for now
Opening Day:
Jacoby Ellsbury L
Brett Gardner L
Carlos Beltran S
Mark Teixeira S
Brian McCann L
Chase Headley S
Alex Rodriguez R/Garrett Jones L
Stephen Drew L
Didi Gregorius L

Why a range?  Because this lineup could be either really good or really bad.  On the good side, Ellsbury and Gardner can both be scary on the basepaths and will set up well for the heart of the lineup.  From the 1-7 spot in this lineup is homerun power, especially with the short porches at Yankee Stadium.  Plus, Gregorius, though not known for his bat, could still be an improvement over the groundball-specialist Jeter.  But, there are questions, mainly injuries.  Beltran, Teixiera, and McCann all suffered from injuries last year, and were rather ineffective when they were playing.  After a year of no baseball, we have no idea what kind of hitting shape A-Rod is in (though this spring has not been awful so far).  Ellsbury and Gregorius suffered minor injuries this spring, though appear to be healthy now.  And Stephen Drew frankly is not very good.  This lineup is very unpredictable, but has the tools in place to score some runs for certain.  If healthy, this is a Bronx Bombers-esque team.

Fielding: B-
Opening Day:
C: McCann
1B: Teixeira
2B: Drew
3B: Headley
SS: Gregorius
LF: Gardner
CF: Ellsbury
RF: Beltran
DH: Rodriguez/Jones
Bench: Chris Young, Brendan Ryan, John Ryan Murphy, Jose Pirela

There is a fairly glaring problem created by the return of Alex Rodriguez.  With two bad hips on a 39-year-old body, a year without baseball, and another 3rd baseman in Headley, Rodriguez is expected to spend most of his time at DH this season. Problem: Beltran and his two bad knees on a 37-year-old body are now forced to be an everyday right fielder.  This is not only a defensive liability, but is also a great plan to get Beltran injured.  Once he gets hurt, there is not a true backup. Garrett Jones is not much of an improvement, and while Chris Young could be, his lack of bat does not make up for it in the lineup. Otherwise, this is not an awful unit.  While Headley and Drew are not great, Teixeira is one of the best fielding first basemen in the game, and Gregorius is a huge upgrade over Jeter, who lacked range in his later years.  Gardner and Ellsbury can easily cover all of the extended left and center fields (and will probably need to cover most of right for Beltran) and are usually Gold Glove caliber fielders who make highlight reel players commonly. McCann is not a great fielder behind the plate, but he is adept at throwing out base stealers and is an excellent game caller.

Manager: A
Joe Girardi

Girardi has never had a losing record in the Bronx, even though the injuries suffered in each of the last two seasons easily warranted it.  He is excellent at resting his players to keep them fresh when needed.  He is also a very good bullpen manager.  Of the 78 losses the Yankees had last season, only 27 were lost by a reliever, about 1/3 of the total.  Girardi knows how to match up against opposing lineups well, and is good at managing innings to keep a pitcher ready for the next game.  With three lefties in his pen and a plethora of long relievers at his disposal, do not expect this to change anytime soon.  Girardi is one of the best.

Overall Prediction: 82-80
I don’t see many of the Yankees staying healthy all season.  If they do, they can contend for the playoffs.  But they are too old and fragile for my liking.  The pitching especially could be troublesome; younger starters from last season like Shane Greene and Vidal Nuno have moved on, leaving open voids should anything happen.  With a fairly weak farm system, the Yankees will struggle to fill the gaps.  This could be a good season, or a disastrous one. We will wait to see the results.

NFL Cornerstones: Cornerback

Chris McGlynn Cornerstones, Football, NFL , , , , ,

Cornerstone players will be a recurring theme on Second Look Sports where I look at each position in a certain sport and I choose a cornerstone player to build my franchise around. I have a couple of parameters for this selection though. I will factor in age, potential, injury history, experience, reputation and production. I think this should be a fun and interesting topic to discuss on here. I hope you all agree.

The selection: Joe Haden, Cleveland Browns
Honorable Mentions: Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson, Chris Harris Jr., Kyle Fuller, Vontae David

Sorry Richard Sherman, you don’t make the cut here. Sherman is a fantastic corner who has a nose for the football and can make some of the most athletic plays by a corner in the last couple of years, but he has some things that hold him back here. First of all, he plays on only one side of the formation. In Seattle’s defense, Sherman does not have to play both sides of the field, which means that he doesn’t always matchup with the best receiver on the field. That drains Sherman of some of his versatility. Don’t get me wrong, Sherman is a fantastic corner, but he is not the guy I want to build around right now.

Instead, I head over to Cleveland, where perennial Pro Bowler Joe Haden plays his football. The 26-year old has good size at 5’11” and excellent awareness on the field. The thing that many will focus on from the very beginning here is the number of interceptions has in his career. Sherman more picks, despite playing one less season. Haden does have a solid 0.22 interception per game ratio, which is on par with both Patrick Peterson and Vontae Davis. However, at corner, it is not always about interceptions. A true lock down corner does not allow his matchup to catch the ball. No one does that quite as well as Haden.

Over the past five seasons, the Browns’ cover man has ranked in the top six for passes defended, with the exception of 2012 where Haden was injured. Haden is also averaging an absurd 17.4 pass break-ups per seasons, despite only playing 11 games in 2012. If we exclude break the number down to knock downs per game, his number of 1.21 ranks better than everyone else considered. In fact, Sherman is the only other corner with an average above one. Haden is test early and often and he clearly holds up well under the constant bombardment.

Haden is a talented tackler as well. He records roughly 4.25 tackles per contest, best of any of the corners considered and the only player with an average over 4. The one knock here is that Haden often get help on his tackles. He has been assisted on roughly 18 percent of his tackles throughout his career, which is essentially identical to Sherman. Meanwhile, Peterson dominants as an open field tackler as he has been assisted on only 9 percent of his takedowns. Haden obviously has a nose for the ball, but he is not the only one in on the play.

What makes Haden the ideal corner is his consistency. He has tallied at least three interceptions per year over the past three seasons. He has registered at least 18 passes defended when he has played at least 15 games. Haden is a force to be reckoned with at the cornerback position. There few players who manage with the same amount of poise and skill at the position. He still has four strong years left of him playing at the highest level. If I needed to pick a corner to build a defense around, Joe Haden is my guy. No other corner gives me the combination of intangibles, talent and versatility that Haden possesses. Without a doubt, he is one of the best corners to take the field in the past 20 years.

How good is Andrew Wiggins?

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA , , ,

People have been talking all season about how good Andrew Wiggins has been in his rookie year. The kid as essentially run away with the NBA Rookie of the Year award. Wiggins has been the bright spot in a dismal season for the Minnesota Timberwolves. The real question is, is Wiggins really a dominant force, or is he just the favorite by default.

This has been a very weak rookie class so far. Only five players are averaging more than ten points per contest this season. Wiggins is the only one average more than 12 with his 16.7 points per game. (Jabari Parker was over 12 a night prior to being injured this season). Wiggins also ranks fifth among qualified rookies in rebounds per game this season. He also sits fifth in terms of steals per contest and sixth in rejections. Wiggins is shaping himself into a very capable all-around player.

One major knock against Wiggins despite all of his talent is his underwhelming assist-to-turnover ratio. He may only be a small forward, but with the amount of time Wiggins spends on the ball, (22.1% usage rating) it would be nice to see Wiggins as a distributor. He is one of only a few players that owns a ratio under 1 sitting at 0.91 assists for every turnover. In fact, he is the only small forward to play 30 minutes or more per game yet still post a ratio under one.

The kid out of Kansas is still young though and has a long time to develop that side of his game. It really should not be much of a concern. The overall athleticism he exudes though is tantalizing for anyone with interest in the Wolves. It might seem harsh to judge the kid on what he has done through just one season but I am curious to see how he stacks up with some of the other top picks in the past several years.

Already, Wiggins is in elite company. Of the top picks since 2008, five out of six have been named All-stars. Those players include Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, John Wall, Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis. The only one yet to live up his billing as the top pick is Wiggins’ teammate, Anthony Bennett. It is not really fair to compare Wiggins to the last small forward drafted first overall either, seeing as that was LeBron James. However, there are a couple of other star small forwards we can compare this budding superstar.

Carmelo Anthony was taken in the same draft as James. His numbers put up against Wiggins’ are superior although not by much. Anthony averaged 21 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal and 0.5 blocks per outing as a rookie playing for the Denver Nuggets. However, he also posted an assist-to-turnover ratio that was under one. Wiggins actually trumps Melo in shooting percentage though with 43.6 compared to 42.3.

Wiggins also stacks up pretty comparably with Kevin Durant’s rookie season. Obviously, the huge discrepancy in height makes this comparison a little tough but Durant averaged 20 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1 steal and 1 block per game. Durant has the edge in the scoring department but once again, Wiggins is shooting at a higher percentage, especially from behind the arc. Durant posted a 28.8 percent success rate from three his rookie year; meanwhile, Wiggins has drained 32.5 percent of his takes. Once again, Durant had an assist-to-turnover ratio below one.

The best comparison for Wiggins though might be to a former Boston legend. Not many others have played better than Paul Pierce over the course of his career. Pierce is also the same style player as Wiggins, switching between a two-guard and a winger. Pierce had a very similar stat line to Wiggins when he first began playing for the Celtics back in 1999. Pierce tallied 16.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.75 steals and 1 block a night, however only in 48 games. Those are not too far off from Wiggins is doing now and Pierce posted an assist-to-turnover ratio of almost exactly one. If this means that Wiggins is destined to average 21, 6 and 4, I think fans in Minnesota will be more than content with that.

While it looks like he is running away with this years’ award, keep in mind that Wiggins still has a lot of growing to do before he can be considered an elite player. However, with him only at 19 and oozing with potential I don’t think the growth will be that hard to come by. Wiggins has the potential to be a perennial All-star in this league and maybe even make Minnesota competitive in a couple of years. With Wiggins at the center of a young core, it seems like the Wolves are off to a good start. His presence certainly makes it easier to forget the absence of certain Love Minnesota used to have.