Hello fans of Second Look Sports. I am pleased to announce that I have officially changed the name of my site to The Aftermath. I felt the new name better reflected what I was doing on the site and I felt that it was time for a change. I also bought the web domain, meaning that I am no longer a wordpress site. So welcome to aftermathsports.com. I hope you guys enjoy the new site!
Month: September 2015
Who’s fault was it anyway?
Overall, this was not a great offseason for the San Francisco 49ers. They are returning half of their starters on opening day a year ago. One of the starters that left was wide receiver Michael Crabtree. He left the Bay Area…wait no he actually stayed in the Bay Area and moved to the other side to join the Oakland Raiders.
The divorce wasn’t too ceremonious. Crabtree let it be known that he had no interest in returning to San Francisco. Now, he is taking shots at his former quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Crabtree was quoted saying, “I needed a quarterback that can deliver the ball, and that was hungry like I was.”
That is flat out harsh. Telling reporters that he didn’t get the ball enough and that Kap wasn’t motivated is some serious criticism. First, it makes Crabtree sound selfish. Second, how much more did he want the ball thrown his way? Kaepernick targeted Crabtree 108 times last season. That ranked him tied 34th in the league among receivers, which doesn’t seem like very much. Consider as well that Kaepernick also targeted Anquan Boldin 130 times as well, which has to make Crabtree feel like he is an afterthought.
However, you have to wonder maybe Kaepernick started to lose some confidence in Crabtree as the season wore on. Crabtree only managed to pick up 10.3 yards per reception last season, including 6.55 yards per catch over the last five games.
Meanwhile, Boldin racked up 12.8 yards per catch over the course of the season. Also, throwing in Boldin’s direction was a much better decision for the 49ers as a team. On 108 targets last year, Crabtree picked up on 698 yards, for an average of 6.46 yards per target. Throwing Boldin’s way was much more productive. Boldin tallied 1062 yards on 130 targets, for an average of 8.17 yards per target. That might not seem like much but even if you were to target both receivers 10 times in one game, the difference would be 17 yards per game. Over the course of a 16-game season, the difference becomes 272 yards per season.
It’s no wonder Kaepernick stopped looking his way as the season continued. There were other reasons too. Both Boldin and Crabtree dropped seven balls over the course of 2014. However, their comparative drop rate was 5.3 percent for Boldin and 6.5 percent for Crabtree. Clearly, Boldin showed better hands and was less likely to drop the ball when it was thrown his way.
Crabtree is also delusional if he thinks that heading to Oakland will result in an immediate upgrade for him at quarterback. Kaepernick hasn’t been a Hall of Famer but he has definitely played better than Derek Carr. In 2014, Kaepernick had a better completion percentage, more passing yards, a better yards per attempt, fewer interceptions and considerably more rushing yards. Then looking deeper, Kaepernick finished the season with a Total QBR of 60.2, which was the 14th best mark in the league. On the other hand, Carr completed the year with a QBR of 38.2, better than only two other quarterbacks in the league. There is no chance that anyone is picking Derek Carr to lead a team over Colin Kaepernick this season. Maybe two years from now, sure. But right now? No chance.
I think Kaepernick has been about as effective as you could expect considering his lack of general surrounding talent. Honestly, based on last season showed us, it should be Kaepernick taking shots at Crabtree for being ineffective. Crabtree has no right complaining about the play of his quarterback until he starts playing like wide receiver he thinks he is.
What was Greg Hardy thinking?
Complain all you want about Brady’s suspension being overturned or celebrate it. Either is appropriate in this situation. However, Greg Hardy got the wrong impression from Brady’s suspension being overturned. No one should be complaining about his suspension and that includes Hardy.
Hardy, who is set to miss the first four games of the season for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. He violated it for his involvement in a domestic abuse case back in April of 2014. He missed all but one game of the 2014 season on the commissioner’s exempt list and now will miss four more this year. However, once he heard about Brady’s suspension being vacated, he considered pushing for another appeal to turn over his own suspension.
The fact that Hardy thought he should have a fair chance of having his suspension vacated now based on what happened to Brady. There are a lot of things that don’t add up and make that notion both laughable and despicable.
Firstly, Brady’s suspension was overturned because the NFL doled out his punishment with no form of hard evidence. In Hardy’s situation, that was not the case. He was convicted of assault and found guilty in court. He received 18 months probation instead of 60 days in prison, which already showed some leniency. Then, his charges were later dismissed after a civil suit agreement with the accuser. He might have missed 15 games on the commissioner’s list, but he was still being paid for all of the games he missed. The NFL never officially gave Hardy a punishment and now these four games are the punishment he deserves. On top of all of that, the league actually suspended Hardy for 10 games initially, which he appealed and that resulted in the four game suspension.
Say whatever you want about Tom Brady being a cheater or having a tainted legacy. It does not matter. He was accused of cheating in a game of football. Bad, yes. But on the same level and physical assaulting a women? Absolutely not. Somehow though, Hardy equated those two things in his head and decided that if Brady got off, then he should too.
That idea is ridiculous. Where on Earth did Hardy get the idea that fans or a judge/jury were going to support his claim that he did not deserve his punishment. During his trial, “the accuser testified that she was assaulted by Hardy at his apartment after a night of drinking. She also said Hardy threatened to kill her and put his hands around her neck,” according to ESPN reports. Brady’s four games were for deflating footballs. Hardy’s are for threatening a women’s life. Those don’t equate on any level so Hardy should consider himself lucky that he only has to face the four games.
Hardy, thankfully, decided to hold off on appealing again. That shows some recognition that the two situations were not similar but the fact that Hardy had the intentions to shows that we still have a long way to go with teaching NFL players what is acceptable. Hardy believed that he had served his punishment for a domestic violence scandal even though he was paid during the time that he was held off the field. In his mind, he came up with the idea that deflating footballs and assaulting a women were comparable. Obviously, he would never admit to that but by simply saying that the outcome for Brady could change his situation means that he made some parallel between the two.
It shows that the NFL has a long way to go before they finally teach their players that domestic violence will simply not be tolerated. Players still think they can find their way out of suspensions or at the very least negotiate their way down from where they start because it’s just domestic violence. You can maintain that it isn’t true but that is the message that the league and it’s players send when they fail to properly react to these types to situations.
Hardy made the right decision to accept his punishment in the end. I have to commend him for that much. I just really wish he had never even brought up a second appeal. Had he really put his efforts into having his suspension vacated, their would have been a big uproar and I can guarantee you that I would have been part of it.
He got off without jail time, he still got paid and he had his initial suspension reduced. Hardy couldn’t have asked for much more and the fact that he almost did bothers me. I can only hope that the time comes where the NFL no longer has to deal with these types of situations. It will take some time but it is a day that we will accept with open arms.
NFL Power Rankings: Week 1
1. Indianapolis Colts (Last week: 1)
Indy’s first test of the season could be a tough one as they have no idea what kind of offense Buffalo will roll out with Tyrod Taylor under center. We will get to see just how good the Colts’ offense can be right off the bat with a battle against Rex Ryan’s new Bills.
2. New England Patriots (Last week: 2)
The Pats stay here in part because I messed up and didn’t finish the power rankings before last night’s game. The run defense looked atrocious but it won’t matter much if Brady, Edelman and Gronkowski play like they did last night.
3. Green Bay Packers (Last week: 3)
The Packers get a nice easy start to their season. Aaron Rodgers threw for 617 yards and 10 touchdowns last season against the Bears, while completing 72.7 percent of his passes. Even without Jordy Nelson, Rodgers should bully Chicago again.
4. Seattle Seahawks (Last week: 4)
This offensive line flat out scares me and facing a group as good as the Rams front four week 1 is not what Seattle needs. This is baptism by fire for this offensive line. The Seahawks are also without All-Pro safety Kam Chancellor which will certainly come as a major blow.
5. Dallas Cowboys (Last week: 6)
Dallas added another running back to its stable by trading for Christine Michael. The former Texas A&M star will give the ‘Boys an insurance policy and a good change of pace back. It will be fun to see him get the ball behind this road grading offensive line.
6. Denver Broncos (Last week: 5)
The Broncos drop just because Dallas got better. Cutting Montee Ball was for the best unfortunately. How Denver comes out week 1 against the Ravens will be a big indicator for how their season will go.
7. Arizona Cardinals (Last week: 7)
In games Carson Palmer started for the Cardinals last season, they were undefeated. This Arizona team is a legitimate Super Bowl contender with Bruce Arians at the helm. They will be even more of one if Andre Ellington stays healthy.
8. Kansas City Chiefs (Last week: 8)
While their are still some question marks surrounding this Chiefs team, there are probably even more surrounding division rival Denver. I would not be surprised if Kansas City led the AFC West at season’s end.
9. Philadelphia Eagles (Last week: 9)
Putting this high-octane offense against the worst passing defense in the league a season ago should be a recipe for a win week 1 for Philly. What will be more telling is how the defense holds up against Atlanta’s offense.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (Last week: 10)
Pittsburgh’s defense looked lost and confused for good chunks of last night. Leaving All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski wide open in the middle of the field probably wasn’t part of the game plan but it happened on a number of occasions. The running game looked good though with DeAngelo Williams flashing his speed last night.
11. Minnesota Vikings (Last week: 12)
I am much higher on the Vikings than most people who don’t live in Minnesota. However, I saw a lot of promise from this young squad in the preseason. If they can win 7 games without Adrian Peterson, I am willing to bet they can win 10 with him.
12. Miami Dolphins (Last week: 13)
DeVante Parker might be back in the fold earlier than expected. That is really good news for Ryan Tannehill as he has the best supporting cast of his young career. With Suh clogging the middle now on defense as well, Miami should be at the edge of the playoff picture all year.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (Last week: 11)
The Bengals resigned A.J. Green this morning and now have over $200 million committed to their inconsistent signal caller Andy Dalton and the oft-injured Green. Cincy needs for these investments to start paying off if they have any chance of making it past the wildcard round this year.
14. Detroit Lions (Last week: 15)
I am interested to see which Matthew Stafford shows up on Sunday. The one that can’t win big games or the one that shreds teams through the air. Against the Chargers, I think we are going to see the later in a convincing Detroit win.
15. Baltimore Ravens (Last week: 16)
I will be honest here. I really don’t like the Baltimore Ravens in 2015. They have no proven receivers outside of Steve Smith Sr. He can only do so much for this team. Joe Flacco better hope the Ravens ground game is as good as it was a season ago or he is in for a very long season.
16. San Diego Chargers (Last week: 13)
San Diego had a rough preseason running the ball. They finished with an abysmal 3.1 yards per carry, which tied them with Browns for 26th in the league. That includes Melvin Gordon, who picked up 45 yards on 20 carries. Phillip Rivers might still be looking for help on the offense.
17. Buffalo Bills (Last week: 17)
Rex Ryan actually won his only game against Andrew Luck in the latter’s rookie year. Luck has grown a lot since then but Ryan has a way for flustering quarterbacks. It wouldn’t shock me if he found a way to get after Luck this weekend and kept the game closer than most expect.
18. Houston Texans (Last week: 18)
Last week I picked on Houston for not running the ball well without Arian Foster. With reports that the Pro Bowl running back could be back after only two or three weeks of the regular season, the Texans have a much better chance at making a playoff push.
19. Atlanta Falcons (Last week: 19)
Atlanta’s reworked defense is going to be tested early and often against the Eagles. It will be a real test for rookie head coach Dan Quinn to get it to hold up for all four quarters.
20. New York Jets (Last week: 20)
New York has struggled at finding a good quarterback to start for them since anyone can remember. Thankfully for them, they are playing the one team who probably has a worse quarterback situation. The Jets’ defense should feast on Cleveland’s lack of skill players in week 1.
21. New Orleans Saints (Last week: 21)
Giving Brees a lot of time in the pocket will be useful but outside of Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston, the skills players are a bunch of unknowns. The crazy thing is, the Saints are in as good of a position as any to win the NFC South this year.
22. New York Giants (Last week: 22)
The Giants finally paid Eli. Now he can focus on football. Victor Cruz is officially out week 1 but the Giants have become pretty adept to playing without him. Now if the offensive line and make shift secondary can hold, New York might have a chance of walking out of Dallas with a win.
23. St. Louis Rams (Last week: 25)
Todd Gurley will officially miss week 1 but once he is on the field, St. Louis has a deep and talented backfield. If they can find any form of consistency in the passing game against the Seahawks on Sunday, there is a chance that the Rams defense can do enough to get the win.
24. Carolina Panthers (Last week: 24)
The Panthers locked up Luke Keuchley for the foreseeable future. Now all they need is a to find a wide receiver who can catch the ball from Cam Newton for the foreseeable future. Carolina will struggle to move the ball and could be upset on the road in Jacksonville.
25. Cleveland Browns (Last week: 23)
I got a little too over zealous last week moving the Browns up to 23 with thoughts they could sign Robert Griffin III. Dropping them back down is good. Sunday will likely start another long season for Cleveland where the most I can see them winning is a handful of games.
26. San Francisco 49ers (Last week: 26)
Remember two years ago when San Francisco was in the NFC championship game only a year after losing to the Ravens in the Super Bowl. That seems like a lifetime ago and most of that group that helped them to that success is gone. The 49ers are in desperate need of some new leaders on this team.
27. Oakland Raiders (Last week: 28)
There is a little bit of hope in Oakland for the first time in what seems like years. The Raiders are making the right moves and are slowly beginning to develop a young nucleus to build this team around. The results won’t come in 2015 though.
28. Chicago Bears (Last week: 27)
With rumors that Alshon Jeffery could miss week 1, the Bears’ chances of even mounting a push against the Packers are even slimmer. Chicago hasn’t beaten Green Bay at Soldier Field since 2010. And they will likely have to wait until at least next year to even think about breaking that streak.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (Last week: 29)
Julius Thomas had a successful surgery and should be back for week 4. Unfortunately, that means the Jaguars are rolling out a very inexperienced receiving core. Pair that with a sophomore quarterback and a rookie running back, this Jacksonville squad has a lot of growing up to do this season and they have to do it fast.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last week: 30)
Tampa Bay has a great chance to start the season with a win as the top two picks face off week one. Jameis Winston against Marcus Mariota will one day be a great matchup to watch. For now though, this is two teams fighting to avoid being in the NFL cellar.
31. Tennessee Titans (Last week: 31)
The same that was said for the Bucs can be said for the Titans. Adding Browns castoff Terrance West could be a solid move for Tennessee but this team is still a few years away from competing in the AFC South.
32. Washington (Last week: 32)
They deserve to be at the bottom. With the way they handle personnel decisions and the obvious lack of cohesion between the coaching staff and management, Washington is a mess. They have some great skill position players but an inconsistent line and a backup quarterback mean that Washington is in for a rough season.
Projecting the postseason
Football is back!!! It has been too long that we’ve had to wait to watch the best sport in America. Matt and myself continued our tradition by picking the winner of every NFL game. You can see those here and here. Now we move on to the playoffs.
For a refresher of who I had in the playoffs, here our how the conferences finished the year.
Playoffs
AFC
- Indianapolis
- Denver
- New England
- Pittsburgh
- Kansas City
- New York
NFC
- Arizona
- Green Bay
- Dallas
- Atlanta
- Seattle
- Minnesota
Wildcard
(3) New England over (6) New York
(4) Pittsburgh over (5) Kansas City
(3) Dallas over (6) Minnesota
(5) Seattle over (4) Atlanta
The Jets were lucky to make the playoffs thanks to a really easy schedule. Their luck completely runs out against division rival New England. The Pats may have lost a lot of their defensive talent but that doesn’t mean that they don’t have enough to handle the Jets. Pittsburgh’s ground game will rumble them through Chiefs defense. LeVeon Bell is a stud and Ben Roethlisberger will probably light it up versus a young KC secondary. Dallas proves to be too much for this young Minnesota team. The offensive line keeps Romo clean for way too long. Seattle might be a wildcard team but it doesn’t matter. They will run Atlanta out of their own building.
Divisional
(1) Indianapolis over (4) Pittsburgh
(2) Denver over (3) New England
(1) Arizona over (5) Seattle
(3) Dallas over (2) Green Bay
We get some absolutely fantastic matchups in the second round. Pittsburgh’s patchwork secondary folds under the wieght of Andrew Luck and company. Manning vs. Brady returns to the playoffs for another round. Manning gets the better of Brady in this one as that same Patriots defense fails to hold up against Denver’s diverse passing attack. The better matchups are actually in the NFC though. Arizona and Seattle face off as the two best teams in the conference. Arizona’s steady offensive play and smothering defense proves to be too much for a shaky Seattle o-line. Dallas finally gets its revenge at Lambeau and finally we can all put the Dez catch talk to bed.
Conference Championships
(1) Indianapolis over (2) Denver
(1) Arizona over (3) Dallas
Sure it is kinda lame to have the two number one seeds going on but they both deserve it. Peyton returns to where he began and falls against his replacement. Luck and his new veteran friends Frank Gore and Andre Johnson defeat the Broncos once again and Manning must once again consider retirement. People think I am too high on Arizona but the Cardinals were undefeated last year in games that Carson Palmer started. A revamped offensive line with Mike Iupati means that they keep him clean and defeat Dallas.
Super Bowl
Indianapolis over Arizona
This is probably Carson Palmer’s best shot at a ring. However, that isn’t enough for them to overcome Andre Luck and the Colts. Luck is primed for a huge season in a contract year and some new weapons. The Colts are crazy deep at wide receiver and the defense gets Robert Mathis back. Arizona will be tough to beat with a great defense. However, the running game just isn’t enough to keep that potent Colts offense off the field enough. Luck wins his first of what I’m sure will be many Super Bowl appearances.
So that’s it. The whole season predicted from start to finish. Check out Matt’s playoff picks here and enjoy your season!
The Aftermath 