Month: September 2015

Predicting the playoffs

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , ,

by Matt Luppino
What are we talking about?!?!? Somewhere, Jim Mora is displeased, but I’m going to do it anyways. As a reminder, here are my playoff teams from each league based off of my predictions posted yesterday.

AFC

  • Denver
  • Indianapolis
  • New England
  • Pittsburgh
  • Kansas City
  • Buffalo

NFC

  • Green Bay
  • Seattle
  • New York
  • Atlanta
  • Arizona
  • Philadelphia

Wild Card
(3) New England over (6) Buffalo
(5) Kansas City over (4) Pittsburgh
(6) Philly over (3) NYG
(5) Arizona over (4) Atlanta

Rex Ryan will bring a tough defense to Foxborough, but pissed off Tom Brady should be able to easily dispatch of them. I like the potency of Kansas City’s offense against a weaker and less experienced Steelers defense, especially Jamaal Charles in the cold weather of Pittsburgh. If the Giants struggle to get a pass rush on Sam Bradford, I could see him picking apart that secondary with ease while being more successful in covering the Giants. The Cardinals defense will be tough on Matt Ryan, and if Carson can avoid mistakes, he should punish Atlanta, even at home.

Divisional
(1) Denver over (5) Kansas City
(2) Indianapolis over (3) New England
(1) Green Bay over (6) Philadelphia
(2) Seattle over (5) Arizona

I don’t like picking all of the bye week teams, but I feel good on most of these picks.  Once again assuming Peyton is still Peyton, I can see him performing well against the Chiefs at altitude to grind out a tough win.  In a rematch of the famous Deflategate game, we might see an even more pissed off Colts team than just simply pissed off Tom Brady, and I see Andrew Luck finally besting him to move on; should be a good game though.  Sam Bradford has little playoff experience, and most of that Packers team, especially Aaron Rodgers, has plenty; I see Green Bay, at Lambeau, outclassing the Eagles.  As for the NFC West matchup, it is also a toss-up, but I see the Seahawks defense as more dangerous against Carson Palmer than Atlanta, allowing them to move on at a raucous CenturyLink Field.

Andrew LuckConference
(2) Indianapolis over (1) Denver
(2) Seattle over (1) Green Bay

After Peyton bested Luck in Indianapolis during the regular season, I see Luck repaying the favor in Denver. The new experience on the Colts team will pay off, and (bonus prediction) Peyton Manning will retire without the elusive second ring he went to Denver for. In the NFC, this is a tight matchup in a rematch of last year’s NFC championship. In another close game, I see Seattle’s rushing attack being more explosive than Green Bay’s in a likely showdown on Lambeau’s frozen tundra, sending the Hawks to their third straight Super Bowl.

Colts logoSuper Bowl
Indianapolis over Seattle

My initial takeaways from this game being in San Francisco: 1) it should be warmer, which is better for passing than colder temperatures; 2) it is very close to Stanford, making a large pocket of the fans pro-Luck; and 3) San Francisco HATES Seattle with passion. So in a pro-Indy environment, where Luck has the ability to pass effectively, I see him besting the dreaded Legion of Boom, scoring enough to keep Russell Wilson and Beast Mode at bay, and winning his first Super Bowl ring, 31-23.

And with that, let’s welcome back football.  In the highly unlikely event that all of these predictions are right, I told you so. Check out Chris’ picks here, and have a great season everyone. Go Tampa!

Projecting the entire NFL regular season

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , ,

With the season starting tomorrow night, Chris and I completed our annual tradition and predicted every NFL game this upcoming season. Here are my results. Chris’ are here. Check back tomorrow to see how the playoffs shake out. 

Pittsburgh_Steelers logoAFC North
Steelers 11-5
Ravens 8-8
Bengals 5-11
Browns 2-14

This year, a slightly weakened division will allow for an easier time for the Steelers, with a now potent offense; LeVeon Bell, Antonio Bryant, and Martavius Bryant are strong weapons surrounding Ben Roethlisberger, who is coming off his best year as a pro. Baltimore faces issues on offense: with Torrey Smith gone to Baltimore and rookie Breshad Perriman is the only replacement. Joe Flacco will be forced to rely on the swan song season of Steve Smith, who may struggle to carry the load again at 35. In Cincy, Andy Dalton needs to be effective in protecting the football if they are going to have any chance of contending with the strong defenses in this division. I don’t see that happening, and Jeremy Hill will not be able to change that. As for Cleveland, Josh McCown is not the answer, and the lack of a running game is a big issue; if Cleveland struggles early, we may see Johnny Manziel starting a lot earlier than Week 16 this year.

Patriots LogoAFC East
Patriots 13-3
Bills 9-7
Jets 8-8
Dolphins 8-8

This is a strong division this year, but I find it hard to bet against a pissed off Tom Brady on a consistent basis, especially since the Pats returns all of his weapons from a year ago. The Bills defense, already a fierce defense with a lethal pass rush, only get better by adding one of the best defensive head coaches in the game, Rex Ryan; if Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy can lead to a fairly average offense, their defense can carry them to the playoffs. The Jets were primed to be better this season, until they pulled several classic Jets moves. In spite of the loss of Sheldon Richardson, the additions of Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and rookie Leonard Williams could be enough to support Ryan Fitzpatrick and his strong cast of receivers. Miami improves on defense just by adding Ndamukong Suh; if Ryan Tannehill can continue his success from last year, they could also make a push to the playoffs. A wild card will likely come out of this division, and any team behind New England has a chance to win it.

Colts logoAFC South
Colts 13-3
Texans 6-10
Jaguars 4-12
Titans 4-12

Indy is the class of the AFC South; Andrew Luck will have his way with weak defenses on his way to another divisional title. The additions of Frank Gore and Andre Johnson give them the veteran presence and depth needed to go deep into the playoffs. Houston will struggle for the first few weeks while Arian Foster recovers from groin surgery, but once he returns, they could see some success; until then, maybe they give the offensive playbook to JJ Watt and see what he can do with it. Jacksonville could have made a big step forward had they not lost Dante Fowler to an ACL injury. Even so, Blake Bortles is the future of this team, and adding a stud TE like Julius Thomas is a big deal for his development. Tennessee will run with Marcus Mariota and he might see some success, but this team is bare of talent at almost every position; they need a few more years before seeing any success.

Denver_BroncosAFC West
Broncos 13-3
Chiefs 12-4
Chargers 6-10
Raiders 3-13

Denver will be strong again this year if Peyton is still Peyton. The emergence of CJ Anderson and the return of a strong defensive front will take some pressure off him. In Kansas City, weapons, such as the return of Eric Berry from cancer treatment, the signing of Andy Reid’s favorite weapon, Jeremy Maclin, and the huge big play potential Jamaal Charles, and easily propel the Chiefs to the playoffs, perhaps even past Denver. The Chargers may have locked down Phillip Rivers for now, but he is lacking the team around him. Even is Melvin Gordon can be successful off the bat, the defense does not have the chops to compete week to week. Oakland has no running game or secondary, which means a lot of pressure will fall on Derek Carr. That is a lot to ask of a second year quarterback whose best weapon is a rookie out wide.

Packers logoNFC North
Packers 14-2
Lions 9-7
Vikings 8-8
Bears 3-13

Even with the loss of Jordy Nelson, the Packers are poised to win this division again behind the best QB in football, Aaron Rodgers, and a generous schedule. I have more faith in Matt Stafford than the average American apparently; the resurgence of Calvin Johnson and the emergence of Ameer Abdullah gives him strong weapons to work with as the Lions make a playoff push. Teddy Bridgewater is ready to make a big sophomore step with the return of Adrian Peterson to open up the secondary for him; if the defense can step up, this could be a playoff team. Chicago, in spite of John Fox’s first year as coach, is missing talent, especially on defense; if Jay Cutler cannot prove his worth, this team will struggle, and he might be looking for a new job after the season.

Giants Logo NFC East
Giants 11-5
Eagles 10-6
Cowboys 9-7
Washington 1-15

I see the Giants pulling it out with a strong passing attack behind the receiving corps of Odell Beckham and Victor Cruz. If Sam Bradford can stay healthy, do not be surprised to see him repeat his strong preseason performances and lead Philly to the playoffs. The Cowboys are poised to regress unfortunately, with the losses of Orlando Scandrick to injury and DeMarco Murray to Philly will cost Dallas, though they can make a push if Tony Romo can repeat his performance from last year. As for Washington, they are a broken team right now that is not ready to compete with Kirk Cousins at QB. Their year is over already.

Falcons logoNFC South
Falcons 10-6
Buccaneers 9-7
Saints 6-10
Panthers 5-11

The Falcons, behind star QB Matt Ryan and a healthy receiving corps, is the favorite to pull out the division win if the defense can play respectably. The Buccaneers come into this season with talent on both sides of the ball and one of the league’s easiest schedules. If the offensive line can keep Jameis Winston upright and help Doug Martin get some yardage, then don’t be surprised if the Bucs sneak into the playoffs. The problem with the Saints this year is their defense; not to mention Drew Brees started showing signs of age last season. The Panthers have lost weapons, namely DeAngelo Williams to Pittsburgh and Kelvin Benjamin to a knee injury. Unless Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly can singularly prop up this team, they will not repeat as divisional champions.

Seahawks logoNFC West
Seahawks 14-2
Cardinals 12-4
Rams 6-10
49ers 2-14

Seattle returns most of their defense, and adds a major offensive weapon in Jimmy Graham for Russell Wilson to throw to; best defense plus best rushing plus potent passing equals a very good football team. Arizona is also poised to repeat their success to start last season with Carson Palmer back from injury, particularly if Andre Ellington can keep defenses honest. The Rams will get the short end of the QB exchange this season, with Nick Foles not able to capitalize on a new team without anyone good to throw to, though the D-line could make this team interesting. San Francisco lost way too much on defense this season to be successful this season, and Jim Tomsula is not ready to field a winning football team yet.

Playoffs
AFC

  1. Denver
  2. Indianapolis
  3. New England
  4. Pittsburgh
  5. Kansas City
  6. Buffalo

NFC

  1. Green Bay
  2. Seattle
  3. New York
  4. Atlanta
  5. Arizona
  6. Philadelphia

Picking the winner of every 2015 NFL game

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , ,

The NFL season kicks off in just over 48 hours and as part of a time honored tradition with Matt Luppino and myself, we have picked the entire NFL season, game by game, for all of 2015. There are some surprises without a doubt and there are some no-brainers. Check back in tomorrow to see Matt’s picks.

Pittsburgh_Steelers logoAFC North
Steelers 11-5
Ravens 7-9
Bengals 5-11
Browns 3-13
Analysis: Pittsburgh will struggle early in the season without Bell but an easy schedule should see them return to the postseason. Baltimore only has one receiver on the roster with more than 30 catches a season ago. Andy Dalton’s spotty play will finally cost the Bengals big time and the Browns are a bit of a ways away from competing. For the first time in a while, the Steelers are the only AFC North team headed to the postseason.

Patriots LogoAFC East
Patriots 12-4
Jets 10-6
Bills 10-6
Dolphins 9-7
Analysis: Everyone is chalking this up as the NFL’s toughest division this year. They aren’t wrong as all four teams finish above .500. The Jets need to play consistently well but with an easy schedule, featuring the AFC South, Cleveland, Washington and Oakland, 10 wins is achievable. Miami plays well but a tough schedule and an even tougher division will bar them from the postseason. Buffalo just misses out on ending their postseason drought. Don’t be surprised if the final standings are this close and end in just about any order after the Patriots on top.

Colts logoAFC South
Colts 14-2
Texans 7-9
Titans 2-14
Jaguars 1-15
Analysis: The Colts could probably start resting their starters after Week 12 and still win the AFC South. Indy’s defense should be good enough for the offense to outscore just about anyone. Arian Foster missing the beginning of the season will be too much for the Texans to overcome. The Titans and Jaguars still have a lot of rebuilding to do as neither team will improve on their previous campaigns.

Denver_BroncosAFC West
Broncos 13-3
Chiefs 12-4
Chargers 5-11
Raiders 3-13
Analysis: Denver continues its reign atop the division but only after a close call with Kansas City. The running game will be a factor in Denver winning football games and this defense will play well after feeling like their were slighted a year ago in terms of credibility. The Chiefs bolstered their secondary with Marcus Peters and the return of Eric Berry. Not to mention Jeremy Maclin should probably catch a touchdown this year. San Diego finds that playing without Antonio Gates is really tough on an offense that lacks a go to receiver. Oakland looks better but still isn’t ready to compete.

Packers logoNFC North
Packers 13-3
Vikings 11-5
Lions 9-7
Bears 2-14
Analysis: It has been the Packers and then everyone else for quite some time now. The Lions made a push last year but the losses of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley are monumental. Matt Stafford is still inconsistent at best. The Bears are in a tailspin and even John Fox cannot turn them around in one year. The Vikings will be the closest challenger this year with Teddy Bridgewater taking another step forward and Adrian Peterson back on the field. However, the Packers still reign supreme, even without Jordy Nelson, due to a relatively friendly schedule.

Cowboys logoNFC East
Cowboys 12-4
Eagles 11-5
Giants 8-8
Washington 1-15
Analysis: It probably won’t matter who starts in Washington if the defense is still as bad as it is. The Giants turn in another average year as the defense cannot keep up with the offense. Philly takes another step forward, going 11-5, but still misses the playoffs in a really tough NFC. The Cowboys repeat as division champs even without DeMarco Murray. Tony Romo will lead the Cowboys to some key wins against a light schedule.

Falcons logoNFC South
Falcons 10-6
Buccaneers 8-8
Saints 8-8
Panthers 4-12
Analysis: The NFC South will experience a major shakeup in 2015. The Bucs rise out of the basement after adding some good value in the draft and in free agency. Games against Tennessee, Washington and Jacksonville comprise an easy first half followed by a much tougher second half. Atlanta gets back to its winning ways with an improved defense and running game. New Orleans is in the midst of a really odd rebuild and find themselves at a crossroads. Carolina drops way down, unable to overcome the losses of Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Hardy.

Arizona_Cardnals_logo_(1994-2004)NFC West
Cardinals 15-1
Seahawks 13-3
Rams 4-12
49ers 3-13
Analysis: 15-1 probably seems lofty for the Cardinals but with only 5 games against 2015 playoff teams and Carson Palmer back under center, Arizona means business. Seattle will still be in the playoffs, and will actually be the only team to beat Arizona this year. The Rams will have a great run game to occasionally bail out their lack of a passing attack. San Francisco simply will not be able to keep up with the number of exits they had this offseason.

Playoff teams
AFC

  1. Indianapolis Colts
  2. Denver Broncos
  3. New England Patriots
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers
  5. Kansas City Chiefs
  6. New York Jets*

New York wins the tie breaker with Buffalo due to a better record against division opponents (3-3 vs. 4-2).

NFC

  1. Arizona Cardinals
  2. Green Bay Packers
  3. Dallas Cowboys
  4. Atlanta Falcons
  5. Seattle Seahawks
  6. Minnesota Vikings**

Minnesota wins the tie breaker over Philadelphia based on strength of victory (.416 vs. .325).

Check back in at the end of the week to see who me and Matt select as the Super Bowl Champions.

What if Brees had landed in Miami?

Chris McGlynn Football, NCAAF, NFL , , , ,

If you follow football, you’ve heard of Nick Saban. You’ve probably also heard of Drew Brees. These two have been wildly successful at what they do. Saban has coached Alabama to three National Titles in four years and Brees has both a Super Bowl trophy and the record for most consecutive games with a passing touchdown. These two have been very successful in their own right, but they could have been very successful together.

Nick Saban2006. Way back before either of them had had any of their major triumphs, Nick Saban was the head coach of the Miami Dolphins and Drew Brees was a young quarterback on the San Diego Chargers. Neither one had anything to do with each other. Saban was fresh from his days of coaching LSU and made the move to Miami. Brees was dealing with a career-threatening shoulder injury that had caused the Chargers to let him walk into free agency. The two nearly crossed paths, and we are going to discuss what might have happened if they had.

The Dolphins were searching for a starting quarterback during the 2006 offseason. Gus Ferrotte had been the Dolphins starter under center the year before but was not convincing by any means. Brees was a free agent and the Dolphins were in contract talks with him. Miami ended up ending negotiations when they traded for Dante Culpepper and Brees signed with New Orleans. But what if the Dolphins had signed Brees?

Brees had turned the Saints from a doormat to a playoff team in just one year. The Dolphins were already a pretty solid team and the addition of Brees would have put them over the top. Brees’ receivers would have been Chris Chambers, Marty Booker, and Randy McMichael, with Ronnie Brown in the backfield as well. Before you know it, the Phins would have had an offense that scared people. Brees would have had Andre Whitworth to protect his backside when Miami used their second round pick on him instead of trading it to the Vikings for Culpepper.

Drew_BreesInstead of faltering down the stretch, the Dolphins make a huge push toward the postseason in 2006, making it as a wildcard. As a result, Saban never jumps ship for Alabama and stays in South Beach. The Dolphins would be preparing for a stellar season in 2007.

Meanwhile, down in the Bayou, the Saints never end up with a quarterback, which means they select Vince Young in the 2006 draft. Young has a nice year for New Orleans as a rookie but fails to get much else going. After another year or two of poor play from the Saints, the team packs up and heads to Los Angeles. 

2007 comes and goes and the Patriots dominate the league going 16-0 again. Rather than suffer through a 1-15 season with Cleo Lemon at the helm, Brees guides the Phins to yet another wildcard berth. The defense is rock solid behind the play of Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, Channing Crowder and Joey Porter. After the emergence of bench player Wes Welker with the gun slingin’ Brees at quarterback, Miami has no need for Tedd Ginn Jr. and opts to bolster their offensive line instead drafting Ben Grubbs.

In a storybook tale, Brees matches up with his former team, the Chargers and delivers a shocking win. Miami followed that up with an upset of the Peyton Manning led Colts, leading to a matchup with the rival Patriots. Miami is simply outmatched in that game, and falls in the AFC championship. The Dolphins get some satisfaction though as New England still loses in the Super Bowl as Tom Brady can’t seem to find enough offense with Welker on the field.

Instead, Welker and Brees are tearing apart the league, and in 2008 when Brady goes down for the season with a major knee injury, the Dolphins have their chance. The Dolphins rule the AFC and roll to a number one seed. Instead of Chad Pennington throwing four interceptions to end the Dolphins’ hopes in the wildcard round, Brees catches fire and the Dolphins look destined for glory.

Miami beats up the outmatched Steelers in the AFC title game and heads on to the Super Bowl played in nearby Tampa Bay. The Dolphins win a shootout with the Cardinals and Brees wins his first Super Bowl a year earlier than he would have in New Orleans.

The Dolphins go on to compete with the Patriots as the top team in the AFC, and the Brees vs. Brady matchup becomes a biannual classic. Saban goes down as a great NFL coach, instead of a quitter. Alabama never turns into a football factory and the Saints live out their days competing with the Raiders to avoid being the worst team in California.

There are some other interesting nuggets that would happen in this scenario. Brees would still go on to break the single season passing record, eclipsing Dan Marino, this time in a Dolphins uniform. However, unlike Marino, Brees would have a ring, which would probably hold weight for the conversation of greatest quarterback to don a Miami uniform.

Just think, all of this could have happened, if only the Dolphins had decided to sign Drew Brees in the summer of 2006. 

Preseason performers who will make an impact

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , , , , ,

We see a lot of talented players in the preseason and sometimes we happen to see a player beginning a breakout. Here are some candidate for some breakout players based on their impressive preseason performances.

Kenjon BarnerKenjon Barner, Running Back/Kick Returner
Philadelphia Eagles
Most of the preseason in Philly was spent fawning over Tim Tebow being back but Kenjon Barner was really the player to watch. He didn’t have too many carries but he found a way to be useful in other ways. Against Indianapolis, he had six punt returns for 131 yards, including a 92-yard punt return for a touchdown. Then he had 94 yards on five returns, including a 68-yard touchdown against Baltimore. The following week, he flashed his skills again with 59 yards on two receptions, one of them being a 50 yard catch and scamper. This kid has a lot of explosiveness. Chip Kelly will find a way to work him in occasionally.

Chris Givens, Wide Receiver
St. Louis Rams
The Rams have been searching for a solid receiver for the better part of about two years now. Tavon Austin was supposed to be transcendent, but didn’t really go anywhere. It is definitely a bit of a stretch but Chris Givens had a really nice preseason. He showed off his big play ability that Austin has lacked. He scored two touchdowns, one that went 80 yards, on nine catches. His 204 yards receiving were the fourth best mark of the preseason. He is buried behind guys like Kenny Britt, Brian Quick and Austin right now on the depth chart but if anyone goes down or struggles, don’t be surprised to see Givens get some game action.

Ronnie_HillmanRonnie Hillman, Running Back
Denver Broncos
Trying to guess who will be the starting running back at the end of the season is very hard. Last year, it seemed like Montee Ball was lined up to be the bell cow back. Now he sits fourth on the depth chart. CJ Anderson appears to be in place as the starter but you never quite know with Denver. Ronnie Hillman had a really good preseason, mostly playing with the twos though. He will definitely be an integral part of the Bronco running game and there is still a chance that he could usurp Anderson for the starting job if the latter begins to falter during the season.

Zach Zenner, Running Back
Detroit Lions
It might have only been preseason, but Zach Zenner led the NFL in rushing yards through those four games. He had two touchdowns, an impressive 5.2 yards per carry and even got involved in the passing game with some receptions out of the backfield. He finished with 183 yards on the ground and he could be in line for some regular season carries now. Joique Bell has been hampered all preseason by injury and Ameer Abdullah has been hot and cold. If Bell can’t go, expect Zenner to split the load with Abdullah in the backfield.

Jerryd Haynes, Running Back/Kick Returner
San Francisco 49ers

Every once in a while, the NFL sees a former Rugby player enter its ranks. Jerryd Haynes did that and made a statement that he deserved to stay. Haynes finished second in the NFL for preseason rushing yards, rumbling seven yards a carry. He even caught a couple of passes out of the backfield and showed off his kick returning skills, amassing 196 total return yards. Carlos Hyde is expected to be the lead man in San Francisco but if Reggie Bush proves ineffective behind him, Haynes could find his way onto the field for some carries.

Kenny PhillipsKenny Phillips, Safety
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans shelled out a lot of money a season ago to sign Jarius Byrd. So far, he has played four games and suffered major knee injuries. He is a candidate to start on the PUP list for the regular season which would open a void for Kenny Phillips to fill. He looked like he was becoming a star in New York before injuries side tracked his career. After spending a year out of the league, Phillips returned and had a great preseason. His 27 tackles were tied for most in the league. He started New Orleans’ final three preseason games as well, which makes you think he has earned the starting gig for week one.

Damontre Moore, Defensive End
New York Giants
From a former Giant, to a current Giant. Jason Pierre Paul is going to miss some time and Robert Ayers has a lingering ankle injury. It sounds like Damontre Moore will see some significant playing time. He recorded 3.5 sacks this preseason, tied for third in the league, and forced 2 fumbles. Don’t expect any JPP-like production out of Moore but after a solid 2014 and a good preseason, he is primed to make an impact.