On December 26, the New Jersey Devils’ front office informed coach Peter DeBoer that he was being let go. It was a move that made sense based on where the Devils sat in the standings but I fail to understand the firing past that. I am not saying that DeBoer should have been kept on past this season but I do not know what New Jersey was thinking severing ties before even reaching the midpoint of the season. It is time to take a second look at DeBoer’s dismissal.
Now, I understand that DeBoer was struggling to get positive results from his team, as New Jersey went 12-17-3 this year with him as the coach. The Devils ranked among the bottom teams in the league in terms of goals per game and goals allowed per game. New Jersey’s special teams were struggling as well as the penalty kill ranked in the bottom third of the league. The Devils are also tied for most shorthanded goals allowed with five. All of the shortcomings were abundantly clear for DeBoer’s ability to morph the Devils into a competitive team. Clearly, he was not getting it done any more as the lead man in New Jersey. The Devils organization recognized that and took care of it. That is not the issue. The issue is New Jersey’s course of action after the front office has taken in the days following DeBoer’s release.
It is becoming painfully more obvious by the day that the Devils’ organization did not have a plan in place for how they would proceed following DeBoer’s firing. The team, now more than a week later, has still not announced a head coach. General Manager Lou Lamoriello hinted that the front office might not name anyone head coach for the remainder of the season and instead will have three coaches picking of the slack, making them all assistant head coaches. Not only is that unconventional, it just does not make sense. I understand that DeBoer was struggling as the coach but why would you fire him if you do not intend to replace him. I fail to grasp the logic behind the move.
It has not lead to any newfound success either. The Devils have gone 1-3 since firing DeBoer and are dropping further down the standings. New Jersey now sits 11 points behind the rival Rangers for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. While that margin is not insurmountable, it is highly unlikely that the Devils earn twelve more points than New York the rest of the way. So, it does not seem like the Devils’ organization fired DeBoer to make a run at the playoffs either, making this move even more head-scratching. New Jersey does not have enough easy games in January either to make me think that it could potentially climb back into the playoff conversation. The Devils only play three teams this month that do not have more wins than loses. That does not exactly make me too confident.
So once again, the Devils had every right to fire DeBoer. I am not in any way questioning the motive behind the move. I am just perplexed by the handling of the ensuing situation. The New Jersey front office needs to find some stability at head coach because this new model for coaching they are implementing is not very effective. I hardly think that this team stood a chance of turning itself around if DeBoer had stayed on. However, as New Jersey regains star Patrick Elias from illness, thus making the team infinitely more competitive, it makes me think that the Devils would have been better off keeping DeBoer for the time being and waiting until season’s end to let him go. As of right now, I see a team with no direction and no hopes of finding one without a legitimate head coach.
Year: 2015
NFL Wildcard madness
The Wildcard round of the 2015 playoffs kicks off tomorrow meaning postseason professional football is back. Saturday’s games include the Cardinals versus the Panthers and the Steelers hosting the Ravens. Sunday features the Cowboys taking on the Lions and the Bengals visiting the Colts. The playoffs are unpredictable and can bring out the best in players. Nothing is a sure bet in the NFL, but I will do my best to predict who will win and who will go home.
I will start in Charlotte where the Panthers snuck into the playoffs with a losing record, only the second team ever to do so. That being said, Carolina is hot at the right time as the Panthers won four straight to make the postseason, which included a 34-3 thumping of division rival Atlanta to clinch the division. Arizona on the other hand, has limped into the postseason losing its last two games. The running game has stalled since Andre Ellington landed on injury reserve. The Cards are playing Ryan Lindley at quarterback as well having lost both Drew Stanton and Carson Palmer for the season. Bruce Arians still has the Cardinals alive though between creative play calling and an attacking defense that is capable of keeping Arizona in games, even when the offense sputters. This will be a defensive battle. Carolina caused three turnovers last week and should generate more at home against a shaky Lindley. I think the Panthers have too much momentum and Cam Newton can create just enough offense for Carolina to pull out the victory. Panthers win 24-14.
To the other NFC game, the Dallas Cowboys are in the playoffs for the first time since 2009 and this Cowboys team is definitely better suited to make a Super Bowl run. The Cowboys have one of the most versatile offenses in the NFL between Tony Romo, Demarco Murray and Dez Bryant. Dallas can beat you through the air or on the ground. Romo is having the best season of his career, as is Murray. These two will carry the Cowboys offense when it goes into battle with Detroit. The Lions’ defense has been one of the many surprises of this 2014 season. This unit finished second in total defense, third in scoring defense and tops in rush defense. Those are some elite numbers. The Lions front four grinds on offenses and generates hits on the quarterback. Eventually those start to take a toll. This game will rest more than anything else on Romo’s ability to improvise in the pocket and exploit Detroit’s secondary, which has only been average so far this year. Offensively, Matt Stafford and the Lions have looked out of sync. I do not expect too much from them, especially going on the road Stafford completion percentage on the road is thirteen percent worse than at home and his yards per attempt drops from 8.0 to 6.3. Detroit also has only one win against a .500 or better team this year. Look for Dallas to roll through a Detroit team still a year or two away from seriously contending. Cowboys win 31-17.
Switching over to the AFC, two young quarterbacks will duel in Indianapolis on Sunday when the Colts take on the Bengals. Andrew Luck and Andy Dalton lead their respective teams into a rematch of a Week 7 game. Indy won the regular season matchup between these two teams, blowing away Cincinnati 27-0. However, the Bengals ground attack has vastly improved since then with Jeremy Hill forming an excellent one-two punch with Giovani Bernard. The Bengals can wear down opposing defenses with its running game but this team’s playoff hopes still hinge on Dalton. Luck knows how to generate points and can get the Colts out to a lead in a hurry. If this game rely too heavily on Dalton’s arm, Cincy will lose. Dalton has never performed well in the playoffs and I do not see it starting now as a solid Colts’ pass rush and Vontae Davis roaming the secondary will cause him problems. For the Colts, Chuck Pagano has to be sure he gets Luck to avoid committing early mistakes. The former Stanford signal caller accounted for 28 turnovers this season. If Luck can hold on to the ball, this is Indy’s game to lose. Neither team is perfect but I trust Luck in the playoffs a lot more than I trust Dalton. I think the Colts win 34-21.
Every year, division rivals meet twice during the regular season, unless they matchup in the playoffs. Saturday night brings us one of the best division rivalries in league history as the Ravens travel to Pittsburgh for round 3. Pittsburgh will be without star running back LeVeon Bell meaning Ben Roethlisberger will have more pressure than ever to carry his team to victory. The toughest thing for the Steelers is how much Bell’s injury limits the play calling. Not only was Bell a top rusher, he was also an asset out of the backfield. Pittsburgh could have desperately used a bye week to get ready but Big Ben has shouldered the load before and he knows what is coming his way with a familiar foe. The Ravens are getting back to playing smash mouth football though which could make life difficult for Roethlisberger and company. Justin Forsett has been a revelation at tail back for Baltimore and taken a lot of pressure off Joe Flacco. The Ravens also have a potentially dynamic passing attack if the offense is firing on all cylinders. The Ravens defense finished tied for second this season in sacks with 49. Look for Baltimore to bring the house, as it knows Pittsburgh’s ground attack is weakened. This should be a great game but in the end, the Steelers’ other one-man show, Antonio Brown, should prove to be way too much for a reeling Ravens’ secondary. Steelers win round 3 by a score of 20-13.
What’s wrong with the Cavaliers?
Cleveland was finally supposed to have something to be proud of regarding sports. This city was supposed to see an NBA superstar team rise up with the acquisition of LeBron James and Kevin Love this offseason. Those two, paired with Kyrie Irving were expected to turn the Cavaliers into a top 3 team in the Eastern Conference and compete for a spot in the NBA Finals. However, this team has been average at best. James has not been as dominant as usual. Love has struggled to find his where he fits into the offense on this team. With Cleveland announcing that center Anderson Varejao has been lost for the year due to a torn Achilles, this team does not seem to be in good shape.
They sit fifth in the Eastern Conference through 32 games and would be set for series against Chicago in the first round if the season ended today. The Cavs’ point differential is an average +2.5 and rank near the middle of the league in both points for and points against (13th and 14th). LeBron and company rank 11th in shooting percentage but a lowly 25th in shooting percentage against. This team commits the same number of turnovers as it generates. Every aspect of this team shouts average. The Cavaliers do not seem to do anything especially well, other than maybe scoring fast break points. With all of the moves the Cleveland front office made spanning for landing James in free agency, to mortgaging the team’s future on Love, to bringing in a new head coach in David Blatt, to signing veterans Mike Miller, James Jones and Shawn Marion. This Cavs team resembles nothing of what it did a year ago. And it has drastically improved, just not to the level it was expect to reach. Now it is time to uncover what is holding them back.
The biggest issue has been Love’s contribution to the team. The power forward was good in Minnesota as a scorer and rebounder. Part of that though was due to the sheer volume of the offense that ran through the former Timberwolf. Love is taking close to six fewer shots per game this season than last season and his shooting percentage has dropped from 45.7% to 43.4% from the field. From beyond the arc, the drop is even worse as Love has declined from 37.6% to 33.8%. As a result, Love’s scoring average has dropped from 26.1 to 17.1. On top of that, the All Star forward has seen his rebounding totals drop from 12.5 to 10.2. Much of this can be explained away by James and Irving’s offensive skill while Love is trying to learn a new system but this is a fairly large decline in production. Love does not really fit in well for Cleveland. The Cavs really need a defensive presence around the basket and he does not provide it. The best thing the Cleveland brass can hope to do is trade Love away in exchange for a couple of draft picks, a little more depth and, most importantly, a rim protector.
Another major setback for the Cavs has been the lack of production from role players. Players like offseason acquisitions Miller, Jones and Marion have fallen flat while younger talent such as Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson have failed to make enough of an impact. Waiters is the only player averaging over 10 points per game. Marion is averaging just over five points and Jones and Miller are averaging less than four points per game. If we saw anything from the James’ days with Miami, it was that role players make a huge impact on a team when they play well. Without them, it is very hard to be a top team in the league.
LeBron also hasn’t been the same dominant player he used to be either. He is scoring two points fewer per game. More importantly, his shooting percentage has dropped from 56.7% to 48.8%. That is a huge drop off and it hurts the Cavaliers due to James’ overall drop in efficiency. His rebound numbers are down by about two per game as well while his assists are on the rise. LeBron is morphing slightly this season but his transformation has not been enough to benefit the Cavaliers. He also has had all of the minutes he has played catch up to him as well. LeBron has missed a few games this season and has been playing banged up throughout the entire season to date.
This combination of players has essentially been a bit of an experiment. Mixing Irving, who is a score first point guard, Love, who relies on his outside shooting opportunity and a high usage percentage, and James, who is arguably the best pure scorer in the league behind Kevin Durant does not translate to success. These three players are each talented in their own right but do not mesh well as a team. This is not a team that is capable of winning a championship with its current roster. This offseason will surely see a lot of changes for the Cavaliers. There is a reason the James only signed a two-year contract. He wanted to be sure this would all work out. Do not be surprised if he looks to leave Cleveland again when it expires unless the roster is seriously overhauled. It simply does not work right now. I do not think it will ever work. The best thing for Cleveland would be to rework the lineup and find a pure point guard and a defensive big man in exchange for Love while switching Irving to more of a scoring guard role. All of this is unlikely but that’s the only way this team will be successful while keeping its current core.
Buffalo joins the hunt for a head coach
Just minutes ago, Doug Marrone informed the Buffalo Bills organization that he is opting out of the final two years of his contract. Marrone is now a free agent and will be allowed to interview with any interested teams searching for a coach. I am surprised to see this happen. The former Syracuse coach had finished with his first winning record in his two seasons and many believed the team was heading in the right direction. Marrone has abandoned ship though. Time to break down what this means for Buffalo and other teams looking land a coach.
I will start with Marrone. I am hearing that the division rival Jets are the front-runners to land his services. Personally, I do not really like the idea. If we saw nothing from his time in Buffalo, we saw Marrone struggled to develop a quarterback, specifically E.J. Manuel, eventually benching him for Kyle Orton. The Jets have a struggling young signal caller in Geno Smith who likely will stay with the team this year and will need some serious coaching during the offseason and beyond to salvage his career in New York. The kid has shown some glimpses of potential but overall he has been a below average quarterback. However, with few other options available, this should be a last chance for the organization to work with Smith to see if he is working keeping around. I do not think Marrone is the right coach to oversee this reclamation project so I think the Jets should look elsewhere.
I think Marrone is better suited to spend a year as a coordinator in the NFL or move back to college. There are not any college jobs open at the moment as most organizations who fired their head coach have found his replacement already. The only other place I think Marrone would maybe be a fit for is Atlanta. The Falcons have a proven quarterback and desperately need help on the defensive side of the ball. Marrone helped form a top-five defense in Buffalo this year. He could be a good fit for a Falcons organization in need of fresh start with a man who has previous head coaching experience. Atlanta is an improved defense away from making some noise in the NFC next season.
As for the Bills, I think the front office should immediately bring in Mike Smith for an interview. From Smith’s time in Atlanta, it is obvious he knows how to orchestrate a top-flight offense. He will not have a ton of options to improve through the draft this year as Buffalo traded away its first round pick in the deal that landed them Sammy Watkins. Smith would have some pieces to work with though in Watkins, C.J. Spiller and Robert Woods. The offense needs a little retooling and an upgrade at quarterback to make the jump to the playoffs. I think Smith could be the guy to run Buffalo’s offense. It makes sense for the former Falcons boss to choose the Bills too because of the defense already in place. Atlanta struggled so much this season because of the woes it had on defense. Smith will not run into that in Buffalo.
In short, Buffalo and Atlanta should swap coaches. I think that would be the best-case scenario for both teams. I just do not see Marrone as a fit for New York. His lack of a track record with quarterbacks makes me think that he might not be the best man for the job. It will be interesting to see where Marrone goes and I do not see him staying on the market for very long. Let me know if you think you know where Marrone will end up or who you think should coach Buffalo.
NFL coaching changes
Five head coaching positions opened up in the NFL on Monday. The New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears and Oakland Raiders all are searching for a new man to run the show. There are dozens of candidates available so I am going to take my guess at who will be the next hire each organization makes. My decisions will be based on personnel, strong points and weaknesses as well as financial flexibility.
Atlanta Falcons
Previous coach: Mike Smith (67-49)
Projected new coach: Rex Ryan (Previous with NYJ)
The Falcons over the last two years have gone from being a Super Bowl contender to a middling team that disappoints too often. In 2012, Atlanta came within one game of the Super Bowl. Since then, Mike Smith’s Falcons went 11-21, missing the playoffs two straight seasons. This team has all sorts of offensive weapons but desperately lacks an identity on defense. The offensive line needs work too but there is some young blood there. Enter Rex Ryan. The former Jets coach may have seen a steady decline in performance over the last three years with New York, but almost all of the struggles were on offense. Ryan would have a lot of improvements to make. The Falcons defense ranked last in yards allowed per game and 27th in scoring defense as well. Atlanta also tied for second to last in sacks. Ryan is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL. Tasking him with fixing Atlanta’s defense is the best solution Falcons’ owner Arthur Blank will find.
San Francisco 49ers
Previous coach: Jim Harbaugh (44-19)
Projected new coach: Adam Gase (Currently with DEN)
Unlike Atlanta, the defense was never the problem in San Francisco. It was the dysfunctional offense. Many witnessed the 49ers miserable up and down season. Through it all, the 49ers showed that its defense might be the deepest in the entire league. San Francisco lost several defensive starters to injuries and suspensions over the course of the season yet still ranked in the top 5 for yards allowed and the top 10 for points allowed. The offense however was anemic. The unit ranked 20th in yards per game and 25th in points per game. Colin Kaepernick looked lost at times and Frank Gore finally showed signs of aging. Michael Crabtree was not as reliable as he once was making Anquan Boldin the only true weapon. The offense needs a lot of help and that is where Adam Gase comes in. Gase has spent the last two years as Denver’s offensive coordinator helping Peyton Manning run his record setting attack. Gase has proven his versatility and understanding this year with his ability to change the Broncos gameplan as needed from week to week. He will have some molding to do with Kaepernick but the potential is there. Gase is also inventive enough to deploy Kaepernick’s running abilities in a way similar to Russell Wilson, truly utilizing the dual threat quarterback. Gase will garner a lot of attention from teams but I think he will ultimately choose San Francisco.
New York Jets
Previous coach: Rex Ryan (46-50)
Projected new coach: Josh McDaniels (Currently with NE)
The Jets are in full rebuild. Owner Woody Johnson fired both his coach and GM making this hard to call right now as to the coach will be without a GM in place. New York looked poised to become an AFC power in 2011, but then the wheels fell off and the team has not fully recovered since. Part of that is due to Rex Ryan’s inability to coach the offensive side of the ball. The other is the obvious lack of talent that the Jets have on that same side of the ball. The Jets began building a better foundation this year with the additions of Percy Harvin and Eric Decker but neither has been enough to turn the offense around. That is where Josh McDaniels comes in. McDaniels has spent the last three years coaching division rival New England’s offense. The Patriots may have Tom Brady but McDaniels has played a large part in designing the offense he runs. McDaniels also has head coaching experience from his time in Denver. He would likely be assigned the task of trying to salvage Geno Smith’s career with likely a rookie developing behind the scenes as well as retooling the offense around him. New York’s defense is still in good shape following the Ryan era but needs some work in the secondary. McDaniels would have his work cut out for him. It would certainly take some time as well to turn the Jets around but McDaniels is the right man for the job.
Oakland Raiders
Previous coach: Dennis Allen/Tony Sporano (went 3-13 this season)
Projected new coach: Dan Quinn (Currently with SEA)
The Oakland Raiders seem to have more fresh starts than anyone else in the NFL, but this one is has a little bit of promise. The Raiders have two pieces, quarterback Derek Carr and linebacker Kahlil Mack, to build around for the 2015 season. This team needs a ton of help on both sides of the ball. It is going to be more than a one season project. Oakland would have a decent amount of money to play with in free agency and a high draft pick meaning Dan Quinn can go to work on the Oakland roster. Quinn, over the past two years, has coached one of the greatest defenses of all time in Seattle and that pedigree will be something GM Reggie McKenzie hopes he can carry over to the Bay Area. Oakland has a couple of other young players in D.J. Hayden and Latavius Murray who have shown some promise but the Raiders will need to get rid the aging veterans McKenzie and Dennis Allen brought in last year as stop gaps. They did not pay off and Quinn will want a fresh start. In a division where Phillip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Jamaal Charles rule, Quinn would have a tall task in making sure the Raiders’ defense is ready to compete.
Chicago Bears
Previous coach: Marc Trestman (13-19)
Projected new coach: Frank Reich (Currently with SD)
The Bears are another team that completely cleaned house this offseason. The Chicago brass decided to fire head coach Marc Trestman, general manager Phil Emory and offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer. This team will be looking all to pretend the Trestman era never happened. The Bears, in many ways, are stuck with Jay Cutler as their quarterback so it is time to bring in a man who has worked with Phillip Rivers over the last two years and made him look like an MVP candidate at times, Frank Reich. Reich is a former NFL quarterback, which bodes well for helping Cutler. He managed to keep San Diego’s offense afloat despite losing this year, Ryan Mathews, Danny Woohead and Ronnie Brown at running back this season. Keenan Allen also fell into a deep sophomore slump. However, the Bears have a ton of offensive talent and need someone to generate some production out of them. The defense struggled as well but the return of Charles Tillman and Lamaar Houston as well as continual development of a young linebacking core could make the defense much better next season. This team has a lot of work to do if it wants to avoid being one of the most disappointing in recent NFL history. Reich should be ready to get the job done.
The Aftermath 