Year: 2015

Who means more: The Big Three or Kawhi?

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA , , , ,

It’s not often the reigning NBA champion Spurs make headlines for anything other than winning. Especially not for something said by Head Coach Gregg Popovich. Yet it happened. Popovich was quoted this past week talking about his young forward Kawhi Leonard and it was some high praise. According to cbssports.com, Popovich told Leonard, “To heck with those guys. The Big Three, they’re older than dirt. To hell with them. You’re the Big One. You’ve got to go do your deal.”

All this praise for the 2014 NBA Finals MVP begs an obvious question: is Pop right? Does Leonard really mean more than Manu Ginobli, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker? Popovich has been calling this kid the new face of the franchise since drafting him in 2012.

I decided to break it down a little bit. I wanted to see if there was a way I could find a way to place a value on Leonard, even if just in comparison to his teammates. So let’s take a look at everything we can find.

The basic stats won’t cut it, but they are helpful so we will start there. Leonard is second on the Spurs in points per game (14.9) this season behind Parker (16.2) and ahead of Duncan (14.0). He also ranks second in rebounding nightly (8.0) behind Duncan (10.4) and Leonard leads the team in steals per game (1.88). Leonard is also second among starters in terms of player efficiency rating with an 18.7 behind Duncan, who has a 21.4. Clearly, Leonard can pull his own weight as he is contributing across the board. He is also a solid shooter, hitting 45.6% of his shots and is third on the team in 3-point shots made, behind Danny Green and Ginobli. Looking at it this way, Leonard seems more to me as a part of a Big 4 potentially, rather than a Big One just yet. Nevertheless, we need to search a little deeper.

Some adjusted statistics tell the story a little better especially when you look at the Big 3’s and Leonard’s averages per 36 minutes of play. Leonard is scoring at the same rate as Duncan (16.7) and behind both Ginobli (18.0) and Parker (18.7). The rebounding gap between Duncan and Leonard also widens a bit with them averaging 12.3 and 9.0 respectively. Once again, this seems like Leonard is just a part of the Big 4.

The advanced statistics are fun to examine as well as they show Leonard be an important cog in the team, but not the important one. Leonard has snagged 14% of possible rebounds while he has been on the floor this season. That is a solid mark but that only ranks 4th on the team (among players of have played at least 100 minutes) Duncan is 19.3% of the rebounds when he is on the floor. He does come up with a steal on 3% of all opponents possessions, which ranks ninth in the league. Leonard additionally has the lowest usage percentage out of the Big 4 (I am just calling them that now).

Leonard is tied for the team lead of Win Shares with Green and Duncan. The third year pro also has the second highest wins over replacement value behind Green but ahead of the rest of the Big 4. The gap though is only a meager 0.2 between him and Tim Duncan (3.5 and 3.3). For a reference point, Stephen Curry leads the league this season with a value of 8.0. That is not enough to give Leonard an edge for the title of “The Big 1.”

This does not mean by any stretch that I doubt that the former San Diego State product can’t eventually become the best player on a very talented Spurs team but for now, I am sticking with Leonard being a part of the Big 4. Kawhi Leonard is a very good player, don’t get me wrong. But I don’t think he is as good as his coach wants him to think he is quite yet. Only time can tell. Let me know what you think.

The fall of a Giant?

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL ,

It is no secret that the New York Giants are in free fall right now. Big Blue has dropped seven straight games, including the debacle in Jacksonville on Sunday. At this point, it is fair to start looking to the future as the Giants are guaranteed a losing record this season. They likely will be battling it out with Washington to avoid the bottom spot in the NFC East and New York will almost definitely land a top 10 pick.

A friend of mine recently mentioned to me that he was excited at the prospect for the Giants to have such a high pick. I figured that made sense. Any team with a top 10 pick has a chance to grab an impact player. But my friend stopped me and pointed out that the last top 10 pick the Giants had turned into Eli Manning. That shocked me a bit. Manning was selected a decade ago which meant that the Giants had avoided finishing in the NFL cellar for quite some time now. Eli turned out to be the best pick the Giants have made likely over that decade as well (maybe Odell Beckham Jr. will prove that wrong but for now it’s Eli). Yet, with their team’s recent struggles, Giants fans are beginning to call for drastic changes, including moving on from Manning.

I will say this bluntly: are you kidding me? You want to replace the Ole Miss product that won the Giants two Super Bowls? That just baffles me. Sure, you can’t rest on your laurels too long but honestly, I don’t think Eli is the problem. Jettisoning the best quarterback in franchise history is not a good idea. And yes, Manning is absolutely the best quarterback to ever don a Giants uniform. It may be hard to see sometimes but it is definitely true. I am also considering quarterbacks who played the majority of their career in New York, which rules out Fran Tarkenton and Y.A. Tittle. That leaves Eli’s biggest competition to be Giants legend Phil Simms.

Many Giants fans fondly remember Simms playing days of the 80s and 90s but he comes up short compared to Manning. The two have actually played a nearly identical number of games in the NFL (Eli has played one more), even though Simms played 14 seasons and Manning has only played 10. This is mostly due to Simms’ inability to stay healthy over the course of his career. Manning on the other hand has never missed a start since taking over the starting job as a rookie. That’s definitely a win for Eli over Phil.

Looking at pure passing stats in the regular season, Manning has a better completion percentage (58.8 to 55.4), more passing yards (over 5,000 more) and a better quarterback rating (81.9 to 78.5). Breaking down some of the stats to analyze a little deeper, Manning has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio (1.31) than Simms does (1.26).

Simms does have a better yards per attempt average than Manning does and was sacked nearly twice as much as Eli, which could explain the injuries. Simms also provided a bit more mobility than Manning does now, as Simms rushed for about three times as many yards as Manning has. Simms also has a better record through as the starting quarterback.

Both quarterbacks led their respective Giants teams to the playoffs in five different seasons. Both were equally as inconsistent as well. Outside of their Super Bowl runs, Simms amassed two touchdowns to six interceptions over seven games. Manning has the same numbers but in only three games. On the flip side, Simms won one Super Bowl in 1986 and Eli has two rings with wins in both 2007 and 2011. He is also great when put in clutch situations engineering 31 game winning drives (not including 5 in the playoffs which ranks as the third best mark in NFL history) while Simms only managed 17.

Both quarterbacks were great in their own right but the edge has to go to Eli. Eli has had more success even though Simms clearly had a better supporting cast. The Giants won the Super Bowl in 1990 while Simms was injured. If Simms had been that important to the team’s success there is no way that they could have accomplished that feat without him. Simms was even replaced the following season when backup Jim Hostetler outplayed him for the starting job in training camp.

It is time to give this Manning brother some credit and take him out of the shadow of his older brother. Eli has beaten Tom Brady twice in the Super Bowl while his Peyton has struggled to conquer Brady throughout his career. Eli has Lombardi trophies, two Super Bowl MVP awards and just about every meaningful passing record in Giants history. So don’t go calling to replace him quite yet. This Giants legend-in-the-makings means more to New York than Simms ever did.

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , ,

Week 14 kicks off tonight with two NFC teams fighting to stay alive in the playoff race. Dallas visits Chicago and both teams are desperate for a win. The Cowboys at 8-4 are in a good spot but can’t afford to give up any ground given how strong the rest of the NFC is. They are still on the outside looking in. Meanwhile, a loss for Chicago and a win from either Seattle or Detroit would eliminate them from playoff contention. This game has a lot of playoff implications so it should be a fun one to watch.

Dallas is coming off a beating they took at home to division rival Philadelphia. The running game failed to get going and the Cowboys’ offensive line finally showed some cracks as Tony Romo was sacked four times by the end of the game. It was also the first time since Week 1 that Romo threw more than one interception in a game. Dallas offense will be out to prove last week was a fluke and that they weren’t just getting into typical Cowboy December form. The defense also gave up a season high 256 yards on the ground to LeSean McCoy and company. Defensive Coordinator Rod Marinelli will need to get his front seven into shape if they plan to contain Chicago’s Matt Forte.

On the other side, the Bears are also coming off a humiliating loss on Thanksgiving to a division rival in the Lions. The Bears jumped out to an early lead over Detroit but falter and were down again by halftime, never scoring again after the first quarter. Calvin Johnson battered the defense and Matt Stafford began to pick apart Chicago’s defense. Mark Trestman is coaching for his job right now in the Windy City. The Bears could have some success spreading the Cowboys out and attack them down the field and through screens designed for Alshon Jeffrey and Forte. Defensively, look for Chicago to bring the house and bottle up Demarco Murray. The Cowboys have struggled whenever their running back has been unable to get on track.

Prediction: Dallas plays it safe early, getting Murray and Romo into a groove and jumping out to an early lead. Jay Cutler brings the Bears back but tries to do too much later in the game once the Cowboys have opened up their offense. Cutler has two costly second half interceptions and Dallas pulls away to win 31-17.

Johnny Florida

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL

The NFL season is entering week 12 and as always, the league is crazy right about now. Some teams are starting to drop out of playoff contention though. The Oakland Raiders were eliminated on Sunday and more are sure to follow.

I want to turn my attention the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have been underwhelming in 2014 posting a 2-8 record so far. The team is only two games back in the division but they do not have a win against a division opponent. The Buccaneers could be set to reload in the offseason though with a potential top-10 (or even top-5) pick in what is shaping up to be a very deep and talented draft. However, I think Tampa’s main priority should be someone who was already drafted.

One of the Buccaneers points of weakness this season has been quarterback. Josh McCown continues to prove that last season was a fluke and Mike Glennon looks like serviceable, yet replaceable backup. Clearly, neither one of the two will be starting next season under center, barring some sort of injury elsewhere. So I think it could be time for a fresh start for a former Heisman-winning dual threat quarterback, not too far removed for his days playing in the SEC, whose playmaking ability has created a borderline cult-like following.

Before I lose all my credibility, I do not mean Tim Tebow. I am talking about Johnny Manziel. This might still seem like a head-scratcher. Manziel has spent this season on the bench and has yet to prove himself in the NFL but there are a couple of reasons that I think Tampa is a fit for Johnny.

First, this is a Buccaneers offense that needs a shot in the arm. It ranks 28th in rushing and 19th in passing yards. I think that this could be a pivotal move to turn the Lovie Smith era around in year 2. Looking at the Bucs’ offense, you see a young, talented wide receiver in Mike Evans, who is coming off a 7-catch, 200+ yard performance against Washington. Evans has plenty of history with Manziel as they played together in college. Evans was also Manziel’s favorite target. The two combined for roughly 2,500 yards and 17 touchdowns in over their two years at Texas A&M. Manziel can also be a threat with his legs. He could provide a spark for Tampa’s anemic ground attack. This is also a team attempting to find its identity on offense. It presents the option to build around Manziel’s playmaking ability. I also think Lovie Smith’s disciplined coaching style would keep the rookie, known for his off the field antics, in line. Things could fall into place pretty well with a switch.

While Manziel is currently a member of the Browns, Cleveland seems set with Brian Hoyer as their quarterback and reluctant to let Manziel see the field. This could present a prime opportunity for Bucs to snag the former Aggie, and even a late round pick, in return for a disgruntled Vincent Jackson, whom the team is reportedly looking to move anyway. That could create a hole at wideout for Cleveland but with that top-10 pick, Tampa could easily target Alabama’s Amari Cooper. An offense featuring Manziel, Evans, Cooper and either a big-name free agent running back (Marshawn Lynch maybe?) or a rookie from a very deep draft class (Melvin Gordan perhaps?) could be downright scary. This just seems to make too much sense to me. Let me know what you think.

The end of an era

Chris McGlynn Baseball, MLB

A legend said goodbye last night. Fans waved to their leader as he took the field one last time. Family and friends gathered to meet him as he walked off that diamond in the Bronx. The last of the “Core Four” walked away from a place he called home. Derek Jeter played his last ever game in a pinstripe uniform in the house that he has so famously built.

All of this of course happened after the Yankee captain stepped into that batter’s box one last time and hit an opposite field single to score a man from second and end the game against the Orioles. The game doesn’t mean anything in the standings, but it certainly means a lot to all of the fans who watched it unfold. Jeter walked it off and then took one last walk around his home to wave farewell to all the people who had come to watch him one last time.

They used to call the old Yankee Stadium “The House that Ruth Built.” There have been some to coin the new home as “The House that Jeter Built” and after last night, they definitely should. In case you weren’t aware, Derek Jeter has been on his farewell tour all season. He played in his final all-star game, he passed Honus Wagner to move into number six on the all-time hits list and he gave Yankee fans one last season of fun.

Now, I will be the first to say that all of the praise Jeter has gotten this year for his play. He really has been average at best, especially by the standard fans have come to expect of him. But it has been fun to watch him go. He has been the iconic face of the most successful sports franchise in the world. And now, it seems like suddenly and too soon, the sporting world must say goodbye to the Yankee shortstop. And upon his retirement, it makes you wonder who is going to that kid from Kalamazoo as the face of this Yankee team. (I say replace for lack of a better word cause no one can really replace what he has done). Could it be David Robertson? Or Brett Gardner perhaps? Or maybe someone we don’t know yet? There is no real way of knowing until it happens.

But until then, the baseball world will be engrossed with just how amazing of an ending that was to one of the most respected and successful careers in all of sports. The only guy who might have done it better is John Elway. And I say might of. The fans at the stadium let Jeter know how much they appreciated his two decades of work chanting, “THANK-YOU JE-TER” for the majority of last night. Jeter kept it as classy as ever and thanked the fans for all their support and saying he didn’t know what they were thanking him for. He was just doing his job. But now I am going to say it too. Thank you Jeter for proving that there is a right way to go about being a professional athlete. Thank you for being respectful, passionate and humble playing for all these years. So this is farewell captain. Thanks for all the memories.

The sun has truly set on an era. What a way for it to end.