Landing spots for top NBA free agents

With the NBA draft happening tomorrow night plenty of attention is being directed to who will be picked, and rightfully so. However, the draft, more often than not, is completely hit or miss. Don’t believe me? Take a look at 2007. The first two picks were Kevin Durant and Greg Oden. Both are immensely talented players, more so Durant than Oden, but they were both regarded as excellent picks that could make an impact and likely become all-star caliber players. Durant did, but Oden could never shake the injury bug and because of that, he has had a largely unsuccessful career. Oden ultimately wound up as a reserve player with Miami this year and saw very little court time.

So, that little tangent leads us to where my focus is instead: the proven performers at the NBA level. The 2014 Free Agents. This is quite the class this year with some massive names potentially hitting the open market including Carmelo Anthony, Lance Stephenson, Dirk Nowitzki, Pau Gasol and, the biggest name by far, LeBron James. With another year of big names looking to switch teams, this year’s free agent pool will be fun to watch. I am going to address some of the free agents who will be moving this year.

Carmelo Anthony- Not that he could never resign with the Knicks but I think it is unlikely. Melo really wants a ring and will find a contender. He will probably stay in the East just based on how tough the West is historically. Sorry Lakers fans. I think the most likely landing spot would be Chicago. This is a team that is in desperate need of more scoring and the rest of the team plays defense so well that they could make up for Anthony’s lack of skill on that end of the floor. I think having an established coach in Tom Thibodeau and the potential to play with superstars in Derrick Rose (assuming he is healthy) and Joakim Noah. A wildcard to sign Melo would probably be the Charlotte Hornets. The combination of Al Jefferson, Kemba Walker and Melo could be enough to propel this team much further into the playoffs. Maybe he could team up with a big name big man (Zach Randolph) and head there for a shot at a title. Could Michael Jordan pull together a championship team? We will see.

Luol Deng- There is no way he goes back to Cleveland. None. He didn’t fit there and he will be moving on. Where to will be interesting.  I think Deng will end up in Houston or Memphis (if Zach Randolph leaves). Now Deng is clearly not as sexy for Houston as LeBron but he could be a solid starter pairing up with Dwight Howard and giving the Rockets a much needed defensive presence. Memphis seems like a logic fit just because of the nature of play. They run a lot through their big man Marc Gasol and always love to out rebound and out defend their opposition. Deng could gel nicely with Gasol. The wildcard for Deng: he returns to Chicago. I know the team dealt him last year but he is a talented player that fit into the system and allow Chicago to continue to defend the hell out of opponents. It is unlikely but it is a possibility. Lance Stephenson- This might come as a surprise but I think Stephenson will walk away from the Pacers. He fits the system but I think it is clear he wants a bigger role elsewhere. I honestly think he could end up in Charlotte. That would be quite the off-season for MJ if he got Stephenson to pair with Melo and add to the combo of Walker and Jefferson. I think Stephenson would be allowed to operate as a playmaker with the Hornets. It seemed like he wanted to do that in Indiana but simply wasn’t given the opportunity. He also fits the playing style of the Chicago Bulls but I think Charlotte has a better chance of landing him. A dark horse team to sign Stephenson could be the Minnesota Timberwolves. They need an upgrade at shooting guard and they definitely need some help on defense. Money should not be an issue with Kevin Love likely coming off the books. It isn’t being talked about, but I see that as being a logical move.

LeBron James- I saved King James for last because he would be the hardest to pin down. I think he could return to South Beach but more likely, he will return to his birthplace of Ohio. For as sour Cavs fans have been since he spurned them four years ago, they would welcome their prodigal son home with open arms. With Deng likely leaving, the Cavs would have a hole at power forward. Who better to fill it with than the best player in the world? All 30 NBA teams will be in the mix for signing the superstar do-it-all James but a team that I think could jump in without being perceived favorites could be the Boston Celtics. LeBron will be looking to stay in the Eastern Conference and if he and Melo have any real desire to play together, Boston could be the place to do it. They have a young, up and coming coach in Brad Stevens and LeBron and Melo could team up with Rajon Rondo to form the new Big Three in the NBA. Boston is also looking to land a star to please Rondo. Why not land the two biggest stars in the market?

All of this madness will begin in the days following the end of June as free agency opens. Let me know what projections you agree with and which ones I got completely wrong.

How hard is it to repeat?

The soccer gods really have it out for Spain. They have just become the first defending World Cup champion to be eliminated after the first two matches of group play. Spain and a good part of the world I believe were shocked by the sudden fall of the Spanish national team that was so dominant four years ago. It was not gradual either. Spain entered this tournament still maintaining the number one rank in the world. Suddenly, they have dropped two games by a combined score of seven to one. They were simply blown out of the water by Holland and Chile and it truly looks as if an era has ended for Spain. Andres Iniesta will not be returning, neither will Fernando Torres, Sergio Ramos, Iker Casillas, Pepe Reina, Xavi Alonso nor David Villa. This team is going to most likely be decimated.

However, this is not unheard of in international soccer anymore. At three of the last four World Cups, including this one, the defending champion has failed to make it out of group play. France, Italy and now Spain have all failed to return to the same form they were in during the previous championship campaign. It is shocking how quickly teams can fall apart.

Believe it or not, over the same time frame (twelve years) the NFL has seen similar problems. Of the twelve Super Bowl winners, starting with the 2001 New England Patriots all the way to the 2013 Baltimore Ravens, only six of those twelve teams even made it back to the playoffs the next year. Additionally, only the Patriots won back-to-back championships in 2003 and 2004. Those six unsuccessful teams fell apart over the course of less than a year and failed to even make it back for a shot at another championship.

Baseball has a very similar story. From the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks to the 2012 San Francisco Giants, only six of those twelve teams have made it back to the postseason the following year. None of them have repeated as champions. Again, only half of the teams who win a championship one year even make it back to the playoffs the next year. Baseball only has 10 of its team making the playoffs, the fewest of any major sport, making it even harder to make it back to the playoffs the following season.

I was surprised to see this trend across more than one sport. A lot of the issues with repeating as champions can be traced to lack of desire or drive. That edge you have when seeking that championship the first time around fades often times going into the next campaign as teams become complacent and rest on their laurels. Another key aspect is players looking for more money. This happens more in the NFL and MLB than in international soccer. Players who have a successful run in the playoffs look for more money and often become unaffordable.

This doesn’t completely explain the ass-kicking Spain got in the first two games but it certainly helps to identify where the issues may have started. Let me know your theories as to why the Spanish fell so far so fast.

Expanding goal line technology

I just read yet another reaction to the controversial and widely regarded as incorrect penalty awarded to Brazil’s Fred in the World Cup opener against Croatia. All of this talk has gotten me thinking about whether FIFA should find a way to solve this from happening. I keep hearing how it is part of the game and it keeps the human element but it does not seem right to me.

In many ways, I feel like Croatia was cheated of a chance to beat Brazil. Would if not have been more beneficial to introduce replay capabilities to review the legitimacy of penalties. I think it would make sense to add it. It would eliminate any bias or uncertainty from the official. It also would not make much of a difference to have the review. The official can simply add stoppage time to compensate for it. It seems only like a logical progression. Every other major sport utilizes replay technology, which is more than accessible.

It also helps in other situations as well. After watching Mexico play Cameroon and seeing on two separate occasions a goal wrongly disallowed for Mexico. Mexico eventually won the game 1-0 but what if they hadn’t. If somehow Cameroon had scored in the game and forced a draw, Mexico loses out on two points in the world’s biggest competition. They would have been robbed of a win they should have had. If the wrongly disallowed goals were reviewable and overturned then it wouldn’t be an issue.

I only see this benefitting soccer. It adds even more integrity to the game as now teams cannot win on a technicality or a mistake from an official. It makes the game much more fair. Not to mention no longer has to make embarrassing apologies for poor officiating. I don’t see a downside to this either. They could use the same technology that ESPN has on every play involving offsides, which clearly shows the correct call. FIFA has already embraced this integration of technology with the new goal line technology. It only seems like the next logical step.

Those are my thoughts on it. Let me know what you think.

Spain’s early demise

For anyone that read my predictions on the World Cup, you would be correct in saying that I was confident in my pick of Spain as the winner of Group B. I mean, come on, they are the reigning champions and still the number one team in the world. Apparently, that meant absolutely nothing to Robin Van Persie and company as they dispatched Spain to the tune of a 5-1 final score.

I realize the error I made when analyzing the pool before the tournament began. The Netherlands was playing with a chip on their shoulder. They were clearly the underdogs and they had been beat by this exact team four years prior to today in a battle for world soccer supremacy. Spain also had to fight off the feeling of being complacent and the feeling that they were going to win simply because they were thought to be the best. Holland demonstrated, really for the entirety of this match, their burning desire to get revenge. They were first to every loose ball; they were more aggressive in their defending; they were more confident in their strikes on goal, converting five of them. They were simply the better team on the field rather than on paper.

The first take away from the match today has to be how poorly Spain played. They looked lackluster on offense and lazy on defense. Iker Casillas, who I lauded as being a special player for Spain, looked downright out of sync. He hasn’t been getting much time with the first team at Madrid and he certainly looked out of practice today. Casillas single-handedly gave away two goals today; one when he misplayed a cross from a free kick and one where he essentially pass Van Persie the ball in front of the net. I think Casillas will improve from here as he gets into a better rhythm but that has to be concerning for Spain’s supporters. We also witnessed the continued fall of Fernando Torres as he failed to beat a defender one on one to score a goal on an empty net. I don’t think I need to say more than that.

Now, even though Spain had a terrible performance, that should not take away from what the Dutch did today. They played fast and incredibly tactical offense and they played smothering defense. Van Persie and Arjen Robben showed signs of being one of the most dynamic duos on the international stage accounting for four different goals in the match. The fact that Spain’s only goal came from a penalty should indicate dominant the defense played throughout the whole game.

Now here is the fun part: projecting what happens next. I think this puts the Netherlands in the position to sweep the pool and take first. That would mean they would match up with the runner up from Group A, a much easier game than having to likely play Brazil at home. They could make a bit of a stretch run and I think they will wind up in the semi finals.

As for Spain, I still think they move on taking second in the pool. That would likely mean that we would get a matchup of two underachieving teams, Spain and Brazil. It really could be anyone’s game and one of these two tournament favorites could be heading home very early.

The last thing I have to say is how much I enjoyed watching the Spain-Holland game. It was so energetic and fast-paced. It was very entertaining soccer. I simply cannot remember enjoying watching soccer as much as I did today. This might have been one of the best I will ever see. As always, I am open to comments. Thanks for reading.

Contract of the future?

This past Wednesday, Colin Kaepernick signed a six-year $126 million contract extension, including $61 million of guaranteed cash. What…The…Hell…? This was a shock to me. Colin Kaepernick is one of the most mobile and running oriented quarterback in the league not named Robert Griffin III. He is always at risk to tear up his knee from one crushing hit. And the 49ers are going to be paying him $10 million per year. The 49ers were smart and structured the contract to be easy to get out of every year but I am at a loss to understand the logic behind this deal.

Don’t get me wrong, I think Kaepernick is a great young quarterback with a ton of potential. And the 49ers aren’t making this deal on potential alone. Kaepernick has led his team to the Super Bowl and the NFC Title game during his last two seasons. I still don’t think I have seen enough that I would sign him to a contract with more guaranteed money that anyone in the league, including Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

Moreover, Kaepernick will now head into this season as the sixth highest paid player in league for 2014. The only players in front of him are Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. Four of those guys have a Super Bowl ring. Matt Ryan has led his team to the playoffs four separate times and has over 150 career touchdowns. The guy after Kaepernick is the league’s best wide receiver Calvin Johnson. I just don’t think he fits with these names yet. Heck, Kaepernick isn’t even the best quarterback in his division (see Wilson, Russell).

Potentially the most interesting thing about Kaepernick’s contract is the way it is structured. San Francisco pretty much created an escape route for themselves if things go south with Kaepernick. It makes me wonder if this is something we will see more of in the future. Will teams look to cover themselves by avoid true long-term deals and simply look to create incentive-based contracts instead. It allows them to review players on a year-to-year basis and if the player continually shows they are worth the money, then they will be guaranteed it for the next year. I don’t see this being something many players will be looking to sign but it is a smart move by the 49ers for the way it is structured.

I think this was a great idea for the 49ers, just not the right player to give it to. Maybe if we were sitting here this time next year and Colin Kaepernick had just made it two his third consecutive NFC Title game then I would be a little less hesitant about this but truthfully Kaepernick has played one full season in the NFL and now he getting paid like a future Hall of Famer. He has no MVP awards, no Super Bowl rings, he hasn’t even throw for 25 touchdowns in one season.  I just don’t think he is worth being paid as the sixth best football player in the league.

That’s just my take on it. Let me know what you think.