Month: January 2016

No love for Lovie

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , ,

I was sitting playing NBA 2K last night, when my phone buzzed. It was a notification from ESPN breaking the news about now former Buccaneers Head Coach Lovie Smith.

I immediately opened my phone and texted Matt Lupinno, whom many of you know from his contributions to this site. Matt has been a Bucs fan for as long as I have known him. He was dumbfounded when he heard about Smith being fired.

Lovie Smith
Smith posted an 81-63 record while he was the head man in Chicago.

I have to admit that I am in the same boat. Lovie Smith is one of the better coaches I’ve seen in the NFL over the last 10 years. He has a career record above .500, he lead Chicago to a Super Bowl with Rex Grossman under center and posted five winning seasons in his nine year tenure in the Windy City.

I was confused after his firing from Chicago. The Bears went 10-6 that season and narrowly missed the playoffs. I’m even more perplexed by his firing from Tampa Bay. Smith took over a struggling Tampa team two years ago and laid the ground work for Tampa to be a playoff contender next season. His record, 8-24, isn’t very impressive, but it there were definitely signs of improvement this season.

Doug_Martin
A big part of Tampa’s rise to fifth was Doug Martin, who finished second in the NFL in rushing.

The Bucs were the NFL’s worst team in 2014, winning just two games. The offense was pitiful, ranking 29th in scoring offense and 30th in yards per game. The defense wasn’t much better, ranking 25th in both scoring and yards allowed. 2015 saw Tampa take major strides as the team’s offensive scoring jumped to 20th, the offensive yards rank moved up to fifth and the defensive yards rank pushed to seventh.

The only reason I can think of for Lovie being fired was because the scoring defense actually got worse. The Bucs were 26th in the league in points allowed per game this season. Smith is supposed to be a defensive guru, so that type of stat really reflects poorly on him.

Yet, it still shouldn’t have been enough for the Tampa front office to pull the plug. The Bucs are clearly trending in the right direction. This was a rebuilding project down in western Florida.

The Buccaneers had a rookie quarterback, left tackle and right guard starting this year. They had a second year starting wide receiver, the explosive Mike Evans, and sophomore tight end as well. Their number three receiver was an undrafted rookie. That group produced the fifth most yards in the NFL this season. That is tremendous for such a young group with so much room to grow.

On defense, the Bucs had four guys who started at least 11 games for them, all 25 years old or younger. By the end of the season, either due to injuries or poor play from veterans, Tampa was starting seven players 25 or under. The scoring defense was woeful but finishing seventh in yards allowed has to count for something.

With so much youth and potential, it does not seem to make sense to fire the man at the forefront of this rebuilding project. The fact that this team relies so heavily on it’s youth too shows how well Smith has done at building the team through the draft. The Bucs brought in Lovie to rebuild their team. He laid the foundation to build on and then the cut him loose, just before the team had a chance to really shine.

Jameis_Winson and Mike_Evans
Winston (left) and Mike Evans (right) were the Bucs first round picks under Lovie Smith.

If anything, I think this move actually hurts Tampa Bay. You have a rookie quarterback in place who is definitely your future at the position in Jameis Winston. You let him play for a year in an offensive system, then get rid of his head coach and force him to restart in a different system. That seems counter productive to Winston’s growth.

The real question now is who will replace Smith. There are not many ways in which Tampa can really find an upgrade. The only hire I think that would make sense is Adam Gase. He is a young coach with a lot of potential himself. Many have pegged him as the premier head coaching candidate for the last three seasons. He would present the Bucs with a coach that would grow with the team. Otherwise, I fail to see who the front office could target that would have more upside than Smith.

As for Lovie, I hope he isn’t out of a job for long. I could see him taking over the Tennessee gig, getting to work with the other quarterback selected at the top of the 2015 NFL draft. Other potential fits for Smith could be New York, where the Giants need a defensive make over, or Cleveland, who is in desperate need of a proven coach to help turn around their situation.

Well I definitely gave Lovie some love in this post. Hopefully, someone else will give him some soon.

 

The legend or the new guy?

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , ,

Editor’s Note: I started to work on this before the Broncos made their announcement. Still does not change how I feel about the situation. 

Peyton Manning or Brock Oswieler? This seems like a very simple question. It does not have a clear answer though. Over the past two months, the Denver Broncos accidentally created one of the biggest quarterback controversies we have seen in the quite some time in the NFL.

Peyton_Manning
Manning had the worst statistical season of his 17-year career in 2015.

Flashback to November 15, when Manning lead the Broncos against the rival Chiefs at home. Manning broke Brett Farve’s record for most career passing yards early in the game, but as the afternoon wore on, it became clear that he no longer looked like a future Hall of Famer. He looked a lot like Tim Tebow, if Tebow couldn’t run. Manning completed just 5 of his 20 passes and threw four of them to the wrong team. Peyton’s 17 interceptions are the second most by any quarterback this season, even though he only played 10 games. In the second half, Manning found himself on the bench and Denver gave Brock Osweiler his chance.

Brock Osweiler
Osweiler earned his first career start this season against Chicago.

The Broncos drafted Osweiler in the second round of the 2012 draft; the same one that produced Luck, RG3, Wilson and Cousins. Osweiler had waited a long three and a half years to get his shot at the starting gig. He made the most of it. He didn’t have the greatest second half against Kansas City, but the 25-year old showed poise as he helped Denver win four of their next six games. It seemed like Osweiler had the Broncos headed in the right direction. No one was looking to have Manning step back into the picture. It seemed like it was Osweiler’s team going forward.

Then Osweiler fell apart against San Diego. He had three turnovers in the first half. That led to Gary Kubiak pulling Osweiler in favor of Manning. The 39-year old played decently well in his first game action since November, but not enough to put the conversation to bed.

Now, Denver faces a very difficult situation. Do you play the young quarterback who carried you to the playoffs or do you return to the legendary five time MVP? It is not an easy question to answer.

Osweiler seemed to play well over his six starts before his benching. Manning struggled all season. However, Manning had a serious foot injury that he spent the last six weeks recovering from. Rumor is that he is completely healthy now.

Comparing their stats side by side makes it seem like Osweiler is the better option. On the season Peyton has 225 yards per game, 9 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in ten games played, with a completion percentage of just 59.8. Brock has 245.8 yards per game, 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in eight games played, with a completion percentage of 61.8. That is pretty easy to see on paper; Osweiler has outplayed Manning this season.

However, you have to take into account that Osweiler has never played in a playoff game before. Manning has played more than a full regular season worth of playoff games during his long career. Having playoff experience is priceless. The atmosphere is different. That is something Peyton is used to and Brock is not.

That being said, Manning’s career playoff record is far from stellar. He is 11-13 lifetime in the postseason. Those 11 wins are invaluable, especially when compared to Osweiler’s zero, but a losing playoff record does not inspire confidence.

Brock_Osweiler
Osweiler is in a contract year and will be an unrestricted free agent following this season.

While he is not in his best form heading into the playoffs, I think the Broncos should go with Osweiler at quarterback. I love Peyton. I love watching him play. I would love for him to get a second ring and retire on top like his current team president John Elway did all those years ago in a Broncos uniform himself. I also don’t see Manning returning to his pre-2015 form. All season he has struggled. For more than a year now, people have placed the cause of his declining play on injuries. Those injuries have been to his thigh and foot, never to his arm. He no longer has the same arm strength he once did. He constantly under throws receivers and often puts the target of the pass in a tough spot when he tries to compensate for the lack of arm strength.

I think Denver is trying too much to have a storybook narrative here. Yes, Peyton was one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever touch a football. That’s a general fact. It is also a fact that his prime is behind him and by delaying his assent to the throne, the Broncos are holding Osweiler back from entering his prime. Osweiler has shown he has all of the tools to be a great NFL quarterback and more playing time is the only way he is going to develop. He has already spent three plus years on the bench. There is not a whole lot more he can learn as a backup.

Denver has not had a strong running game for much of this season either and the offensive line has allowed for a ton of pressure to reach the quarterback over the course of the season. Peyton will not hold up under the constant siege. Osweiler, being 14 years younger and much more mobile, is better suited to run the Bronco offense right now.

The Broncos playing Manning should not discount their chances of winning the Super Bowl though. This is still the league’s best defense and Manning can make enough plays for Denver to win, especially when throwing to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. However, I think Osweiler gives them a much better chance to win, and less of the pressure then falls on the defense to be great.

Kubiak will start with Manning. If he struggles though, it will be interesting to see how long it takes before the Denver crowd forces him to change to the heir apparent.

 

NBA balance of power has flipped

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA, Uncategorized ,
Hassan Whiteside
Whiteside leads the NBA with 4 blocks per game.

We are nearing the halfway point in the NBA season and certain things are abundantly clear. The Warriors are the best team in the NBA. The 76ers are still terrible. Oh and don’t try shooting near Hassan Whiteside. Those were pretty much expected coming into the season, but we have seen an interesting flip between the Eastern and Western conferences.

In years past, the East has been top heavy while the West has been a gauntlet. You could say with almost certainty which teams from the East would be in the conference final while the West was a toss up. This year has been a bit backwards. The teams in the Eastern Conference are all clumped together while the West is very spread out. Every team in a playoff spot for the East has a winning record, but the seventh and eighth seeds in the West are below .500.

The Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic are currently tied for the final spot in the Eastern conference playoffs. They sit just 5.5 games behind the Cavaliers, who are on top of the conference. The Utah Jazz have a losing record but hold the last spot in the Western Conference playoff picture. They sit 16.5 games behind the first place Warriors.

To further the point, the Oklahoma City Thunder missed the playoffs last season with a record of 45-37. That record would have made them the sixth seed in the East. The seventh-seeded Mavericks in the West had the same record as the third-seeded Bulls in the East. The Spurs were the sixth seed in the West but would’ve been second in the East. It was clear that the West was the much stronger of the conferences.

Sure it isn’t realistic to compare finishing spots across conferences, but they didn’t have inflated records because the bottom of the West was just that bad. The bottom of the East was actually worse.

The question now is why was there a switch. There weren’t too many big name free agents who left the West. The biggest ones were probably Aaron Afflalo, Robin Lopez and Monta Ellis. None of them are future Hall of Famers or even All-Stars for that matter.

New York Knicks
Lopez (8) and Porzingis (6) have been a part of a largely improved Knicks team from a season ago.

The draft has seemed to produce a couple of talented players. Kristaps Porzingis for the Knicks, Jahlil Okafor for the 76ers and Karl-Anthony Towns for the Timberwolves. None of those teams are even in the playoff picture though, so that doesn’t seem to explain it either.

Could it be that some trade deadline movements are finally starting to make an impact? Gorgan Dragic moved from Phoenix to Miami. Reggie Jackson also joined the Pistons from the Thunder. Thaddeus Young left Minnesota for Brooklyn. Boston landed Isiah Thomas in a deal with Phoenix. Thomas, Dragic and Jackson have all become very valuable pieces on their new teams.

There is no definite answer right now. The East has suddenly just turned itself around and become the more competitive of the two conferences. My best guess is that some combination of trades, draft picks and free agent signings combined have had some impact on the change. I really don’t think that explains it all.

It is still early enough that we could see the tables turn and the West could have a strong second half. To this point though, the East seems to be reigning supreme.

Have we seen the last of Johnny Manziel?

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL, Social Issues , , ,

In the past I have defended Johnny Manziel. That ends here. He lost my support. He has proven to me that he does not belong in this league.

Johnny Manziel 2014
Manziel became a fan favorite in Cleveland before he ever played a down in the NFL.

Rumors surfaced yesterday that the Browns coaching staff and management was done with Johnny Manziel. Who can blame them? He might have generated a lot of excitement and fan fair when he drafted, but Manziel has been nothing but a pain in the ass since he walked through the door two years ago. He has shown himself to be unreliable, immature and uncommitted.

It pains me to say these things about Manziel. He is one of my favorite players to watch. He is riveting on the field. He has the potential to be electric. He makes you gasp and groan and everything in between. Unfortunately, off the field, he often makes you shake your head and now Manziel is in hot water for his latest antics.

The 23-year old was inactive this week due to a concussion, so Manziel decided he didn’t want to be with the team. He was reportedly spotted in Las Vegas last night, before the Browns season finale with the Steelers. He was supposed to show up for a scheduled meeting with team doctors on Sunday morning, but failed to appear. This was the final straw for Cleveland, who has been trying to police this kid from day one. Between DUIs and rehab stints, Manziel has been a tabloid writer’s dream.

Johnny_Manziel
Manziel did post a 54.7 Total QBR rating this season, which was fractionally better than Cleveland’s other quarterback, Josh McCown.

Rumor has it that Manziel is interested in leaving the Browns in order to join the Cowboys during the offseason. Remember, Dallas showed a lot of interest in Manziel during the 2014 draft and came close to selecting him in the middle of the first round. With his track record though, you have to start wondering if Manziel wants to play for the Cowboys, or hit the Dallas party scene with a couple of the team’s cheerleaders.

It is hard to name a player who has been more irresponsible during his first two seasons in the NFL. Sure, every player has their own adjustment period when they join the league but Manziel doesn’t show any signs of settling down. He just keeps doing whatever he pleases, making it clear just how selfish he is as a teammate.

The Browns are already an embarrassment of a franchise. Since 1999, Cleveland have just two winning seasons and played in just one playoff game. The Browns also managed to churn through 26 starting quarterbacks during that time span. This team is already down and out, they certainly don’t need things like videos of their starting quarterback drunk at a house party cropping up online. No franchise needs that.

Manziel has burned his only bridge in Cleveland. I can’t imagine that many teams will touch the former Texas A&M Heisman winner with a 10-foot pole. He brings with him a media hailstorm, a questionable work ethic, a tendency to get into trouble and a lack of production.

Johnny Manziel
Manziel has failed to live up to expectations heaped on him when he arrived in Cleveland.

It is easy to pretend that Manziel’s problems are solely off the field. He struggles a lot on the field as well. He has posted a 57 percent completion rate in his two seasons, while turning the ball over 14 times. He averages a lackluster 6.5 yards per attempt and lacks the mechanics of a pro quarterback. If you watch him play, it is rare that Manziel looks to more than his first option before he starts to scramble.

On all sides, Manziel is a mess. He is a middling quarterback with an attitude problem and an inability to stay out of trouble. Even if he says that he just did not like Cleveland and he would be willing to do all the right things for a different team, what does that say about his demeanor and character? That is not the type of guy that I would want in my locker room.

Jerry Jones
Dallas selected offensive linemen Zach Martin instead of Manziel in 2014.

However, Jerry Jones showed earlier this year that he was not afraid of a potential locker room cancer. He signed Greg Hardy, who immediately flared up and started fights with coaches and teammates. Jones responded by saying he wanted to resign Hardy. Jones was also apparently at the forefront of the bring Manziel to Dallas campaign back in 2014. Something tells me that he is salivating at the thought of bring him in from Cleveland. He will surely cite Dallas’ shakiness at the quarterback position behind Tony Romo as a justification for bringing Manziel on, if he does choose to sign him.

I think Dallas is the only team that might give Manziel a shot, otherwise, we could see Manziel take the route of another polarizing former Heisman trophy winning first round selection in Tim Tebow. Could you imagine those two working together on the SEC Network? Oh what I would give to listen to those off-camera conversations.

Back to the point, Manziel has made it very difficult for any general manager to consider signing him. There are simply too many red flags surrounding him. More and more frequently, teams are staying away from players with any character issues.

Maybe Manziel would straighten himself out with another team. Maybe he would benefit from learning for a year behind a veteran quarterback. Maybe he would play better with a better supporting cast. All of this is plausible but I don’t know if we will ever find out. If Dallas will not sign him, I think we have seen the last of Johnny Manziel.

Decision Day in the NFL

Chris McGlynn NFL

One last day will decide everything in the NFL. Ten of the twelve playoff spots have been locked up but there is still a lot of movement that could occur based on the results of today’s games. And that last playoff spot will be very interesting to watch. Here are all of the possible scenarios for the teams still alive in week 17.

AFC logoNew England Patriots:
With a win today against the Dolphins or a Denver loss against San Diego, the Patriots lock up homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. However, if the Pats lose to Miami and Denver hold of the Chargers, the Patriots drop to the second seed. That is as far as they can drop.

Denver Broncos:
A win today and a Patriots loss would place Denver in the top spot in the conference. If New England wins then the Broncos would have to settle for second, assuming they beat the Chargers. The Broncos can fall as far as the sixth seed though. A loss to San Diego paired with wins by the Chiefs and Jets would knock Denver down to the final wildcard spot. If Kansas City also loses Denver would still win the division but a win by the Bengals would push Denver to the third seed. Assuming that Denver loses still, they could end up with the fifth seed if Kansas City wins but the Jets lose. Denver really could end up all over the map after today.

Cincinnati Bengals:
This is much simpler. A win and a Denver loss would push the Bengals up to the second seed. A loss or a Bronco victory would keep them third, not landing a bye in round one. Those are the only possibilities for Cincy here.

Houston Texans:
A win would lock up the AFC South for the Texans and a trip to the playoffs. They could still make it if they lose with a Colts loss or a win by the Browns, Jets, Raiders, Saints, Chargers, Bengals or Patriots. Yes that is crazy. Houston will only be the fourth seed if they make it.

Kansas City Chiefs:
Entering week 17, Kansas City isn’t in line for a first round bye but they could get a home playoff game with a win against Oakland and a Denver loss to San Diego. Wins by both the Broncos and Chiefs would keep Kansas City at the five seed, as would a loss to Oakland as long as the Jets lost too.  If the Chiefs lose to the Raiders though and the Jets win against Buffalo, Kansas City drops to the sixth seed.

New York Jets:
It’s simple, win and they’re in. As long as the Jets beat Buffalo, they will secure a playoff spot. The Jets could lose and still make it, as long as Pittsburgh loses too. New York could only move as high as fifth, but they would need some help. A win over Buffalo paired with either a Chiefs loss, or a Chiefs win and a Broncos loss would jump them up a spot.

Pittsburgh Steelers:
Here is a team that does not control its own destiny. The Steelers need a win against the Browns and a loss by the Jets to get in. They can only be the sixth seed.

Indianapolis Colts:
Chuck Pagano might want to play the lottery because he has a better shot at winning that than making the playoffs. The Colts need a win and losses by the Texans, Jets, Browns, Saints, Chargers, Patriots, Bengals and Chiefs to make the postseason. If any of that goes wrong, the Colts are done.

NFC LogoCarolina Panthers:
This is pretty simple, win and they lock up homefield advantage. If Carolina loses to Tampa Bay, but Arizona falls against Seattle, they still hold onto the NFC’s top seed. A win by Arizona paired with Panther loss would drop Carolina to two though.

Arizona Cardinals:
A win over Seattle is meaningless unless the Panthers lose, as it would move them into first in the conference. Otherwise, Arizona will stay as the two seed in the NFC.

Green Bay Packers:
A win over the Vikings means the Pack get to host a home playoff game in the wildcard round as the three seed. A loss to Minnesota would relegate Green Bay to a wildcard spot. The Packers can only be the third or fifth seeds.

Washington:
This game is meaningless for them no matter what. They are the four seed in the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings:
There is a lot on the line for Minnesota here. A win would give them the division and a home playoff game. A loss to Green Bay and a loss by Seattle would mean they stick as the five seed. However, if Minnesota loses and the Seahawks upset Arizona, then the Vikings will drop to the sixth seed.

Seattle Seahawks:
Seattle is in the postseason no matter what and they are going to be a wildcard team, this is just a matter of seeding. A win and a Viking loss would give Seattle the five seed and a matchup with Washington. A Viking win or a loss to the Cardinals would leave the Seahawks as the NFC’s sixth seed.

Those are all of the playoff scenarios on the line for Week 17. Hope you enjoy watching as the madness unfolds.