Year: 2016

Chill on Dak Prescott

Chris McGlynn Football, Uncategorized , , ,

Everyone just relax. No seriously, take a deep breath and stop calling him the second coming of Tom Brady. The NFL world has exploded over the past month as Dak Prescott tortured NFL defenses during the preseason. His emergence in his first three preseason games was impressive, but not indicative of anything.

dak-prescott
Prescott is a fourth round pick from Mississippi State. (Wikimedia Commons)

To start with, it was three preseason games where he played about half of each one. None of these games count for anything. Prescott also played most of the second game against Miami’s backups on defense. Defenses aren’t sending full blitz packages, coverage schemes are still being implemented and top defensive stars likely aren’t even playing. So yes, while the performance was impressive, it has to be taken with a grain of salt.

Looking past that, Prescott was never going to touch the field in the regular season unless Tony Romo got injured. This was not a quarterback competition. Romo is in no danger of losing his starting job once he is fully healthy. One day we might see Prescott as the preferred starter under center, but it won’t be until Romo retires or leaves Dallas.

And even when we do see him play, we don’t have any guarantee that he will put up the same video game-like numbers we saw during the preseason. Odds are, he will be outplayed by his New York counterpart Eli Manning. Prescott’s sample size is tiny and that should be a red flag to anyone proclaiming him as the next great quarterback. This article I found today from CBS Sports is already calling Prescott a future Super Bowl-winning passer. He hasn’t played a snap of a regular season game yet!

And what even more people seem to forget is that this is Tony Romo we are talking about. The same guy who was an MVP candidate in 2014 and lead Dallas to the divisional round of the playoffs. You know, Romo, who has over 34,000 career passing yards and 247 career touchdown passes, both franchise records. This is the same team that Troy Aikman and Roger Staubach played for I will remind you. Tony Romo is right on the cusp of being a Hall of Famer. His numbers are better than those of Staubach and Aikman who are both in Canton. You don’t just kick your Pro Bowl quarterback to the curb because a rookie has a couple of impressive preseason games.

Tony_Romo
Romo is out several week with a broken bone in his back. (Wikimedia Commons)

This article is not just so I can hate on Dak Prescott. In fact, with the pieces that are around him, I do think Prescott has a bright future. He has shown flashes of brilliance, shows that he has most of the physical tools to play the position at a high level and he is on a team with a recipe for him to be successful. Between that stellar offensive line and fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott, Prescott has some nice pieces to grow with and compliment him. Hopefully, by the time he takes over as the starter, (if we reach that point) the Cowboys will have found another receiver to either aid or replace Dez Bryant.

Prescott will be under center Sunday for Dallas as they take on the Giants. New York had the worst statistical defense in the league a year ago, so this might be the perfect way to east him into regular season football. But even if does have a great game against the Giants, let’s hold off on anointing him a Hall of Famer until maybe he finishes his first season in the pros.

NFL Preseason Award Predictions

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , ,

It’s that time of year again. Where we can all pretend to being doing work while actually setting our fantasy football lineups. The NFL season is about to kickoff.

This time of year also means it is time for me to (probably incorrectly) predict the 2016 NFL award winners. Prepare for a couple of dark horse candidates.

NCAA Football: National Championship-Ohio State vs Oregon
Elliott was the highest drafted running back since Trent Richardson in 2012. (Wikimedia Commons)

Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Ezekiel Elliott, Running Back, Dallas
Let’s start with an easier one. Put the best running back from the 2016 draft class behind arguably the best offensive line in the league and he is bound to be successful. Tony Romo’s injury probably helps Ezekiel Elliott’s chances even more as he will likely be leaned on more than if Romo was on the field. This kid might end up with 1,800 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns, as a rookie.

Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Xavien Howard, Cornerback, Miami
This might be a bit of a headscratcher for some, but Xavien Howard is in the best position to make his presence felt early and often. Starting alongside Byron Maxwell, Howard likely won’t draw the top receiver on each team, but he will be on the field to make plays. Joey Bosa would have been a likely candidate here, but well, I’m sure you know by now…

Offensive Player of the Year:
Todd Gurley, Running Back, Los Angeles
Le’Veon Bell continues to miss out on this award with his suspensions, which opens the door for the second year bruiser, Todd Gurley. He won’t be a huge asset in the passing game, but he will likely carry the Rams offense for most of the 2016 season. Case Kennum, Sean Mannion and Jared Goff probably won’t be lighting up the score board, so expect Gurley to have a monster season.

Khalil_Mack.JPG
Mack is the only player in NFL history to be named All-Pro at two different positions. (Wikimedia Commons)

Defensive Player of the Year:
Khalil Mack, Defensive End, Oakland
J.J. Watt will likely start the season for Houston, but he is not going to be at full strength coming off surgery. That means Khalil Mack gets his shot at taking the award. Mack had 15 sacks and 77 tackles in just his second year as a pro in 2015. He has become a disruptive force in the NFL and moves fluidly between the defensive line and linebacking core. Oakland has also added some other pieces around Mack in the form of Sean Smith and Bruce Irvin, which means he will have even more opportunities to make explosive plays. If Mack manages to take another step forward in his development, he could be threatening some records this year.

Comeback Player of the Year:
Jamaal Charles, Running Back, Kansas City
This is definitely a risky pick. Jamaal Charles will turn 30 in December and he is coming off his second major knee injury of his career. However, Charles has never more than 285 carries in a season and is not a volume touch player. He is very effective when he gets the ball, averaging 5.5 yards per carry in his career. Look for Charles to hit the 1,000 yard rushing mark and score at least 10 total touchdowns in 2016.

Coach of the Year:
Andy Reid, Kansas City
Another member of the Chiefs’ organization taking an award. Kansas City has been a solid team for the last few years, but this year, Andy Reid has his team set to win the division and possibly earn a buy into the divisional round of the playoffs. A strong defense and a reliable running game is how Reid has built this team, and it will carry them to a division title and another playoff appearance.

Russell_Wilson
Wilson has led Seattle to the playoffs in each of his four seasons. (Wikimedia Commons)

Most Valuable Player:
Russell Wilson, Quarterback, Seattle
Saving the best for last. At this point, the MVP award just goes to a quarterback. Adrian Peterson is the only non-quarterback in the past 10 years to win the award and he rushed for over 2,000 yards that season. In Seattle, the ground game is as uncertain as it has maybe ever been and Russell Wilson just continues to grow as a passer. In 2015, he tossed 34 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions and threw for over 4,000 yards. That doesn’t include anything he did with his legs either. Wilson accomplished all of that with a porous offensive line that got better this offseason. Look for the former third round pick to snag his first MVP award this year.

 

Are Rookie Quarterbacks Set up to Fail?

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NFL

I don’t know if it is all rookie quarterbacks. After all, every great NFL quarterback was a rookie once. However, it seems that many of these young signal callers leave college with tons of potential only to crash and burn in the pros.

Below is a list of the quarterbacks drafted in the first round since the year 2000.

Chad Pennington, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, J.P Losman, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christain Ponder, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, E.J Manuel, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch.

Jared Goff
Jared Goff, this year’s first overall pick, has struggled heavily this preseason. (Wikimedia Commons)

There are some really good quarterbacks in that group. However, there are several others that flamed out or turned out to be duds. It’s very hit or miss.

I chose to focus on the first round only because there are only two quarterbacks that weren’t chosen in the first round, but started their rookie year currently in the league (Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson).

Part of the reason is that these players come into situations where the team is not very good if they are spending a first round pick on a quarterback. A weak supporting cast can often cause these quarterbacks to struggle right out of the gate. There are several examples of this one. David Carr spent most of his career being battered behind an awful offensive line. Joey Harrington joined a talent-deprived team in Detroit on both sides of the ball.

The bigger reason though is that most of these quarterbacks end up not being pro ready, yet having to play right away because the team views them as the best option. The players who are in italics on the list above all played in at least 12 games during their rookie seasons. These young signal callers do not have the time to learn the intricate playbook and fully acclimate themselves to the speed of the NFL more often than not. This rushed development hinders the growth process in a young quarterback, which is arguably the most hyper-specific of an position in the league.

Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers had to wait three years before taking the starting job in Green Bay. (Wikimedia Commons)

Very few of these kids get what I will call the Aaron Rodgers treatment. There is no doubt that Rodgers is supremely talented, but his three years of sitting behind Brett Favre paid off in a big way with his capability to understand and command the offense from the first day he took the starting job. Even Eli Manning sat for half a season behind Kurt Warner before taking the reigns. You could probably have given J.P Losman five years to learn on the bench and he still would have been terrible, but a few years of development might have really changed the careers of guys like Mark Sanchez or E.J. Manuel.

Fewer quarterbacks are getting the chance to learn from the bench first. From 2000 to 2007, only seven of the 21 quarterbacks taken in the first round played 12 or more games during their rookie season. From 2008 to 2015, 14 of the 20 quarterbacks selected in the first round played at least games during their rookie season. That might help explain why it seems like the league is burning through quarterbacks at an incredible rate.

Being a first round selection really increases your odds of getting a big paycheck and starting for a team. It does not always correlate to success though.

Taking a look around the NFL, of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the league, 21 of them were first round selections (I’m not counting Goff here, as rumor has it Case Keenum will start in Los Angeles.) Four of them were second rounders, Wilson is the lone third round pick with a starting job. Fourth rounder Kirk Cousins is alone as well. No one starting now came from the fifth round but Tyrod Taylor and Tom Brady were sixth round selections. Ryan Fitzpatrick came from the seventh, while Tony Romo and Keenum were not drafted at all.

Ben_Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger is one of the most successful rookie quarterbacks of all-time, going 13-0 in games he started during the regular season. (Wikimedia Commons)

However, of those 32 guys, only 18 of them are entering their third consecutive year of being the starter for the team they are currently on. It just goes to show how much turnover there is in a three-year span at the quarterback position. There are some exceptions in the form of Brady, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers, but on the whole, these quarterbacks don’t have much job security. This also speaks to the lack of patience NFL teams now have to develop a quarterback before just throwing him onto the field. The level of turnover, especially in recent years, has been through the roof.

The reality is that there is no best way to groom young quarterbacks. However, it seems that when you try to force the majority of them to play during their first year, it becomes a very hit or miss process. For every Cam Newton, you also get a JaMarcus Russell.

This year might break the recent trend though, as none of the current rookies seem slated to start under center early in the season. Maybe, just maybe, that will give them a fighting chance to make it in this league.

Goodell’s continued power struggle

Chris McGlynn NFL , , ,

Football is finally back, more or less, and with it has come a brand new controversy involving a number of NFL players. While what they are being accused of is not as stupid as Ryan Lotche’s situation, it still is not a good look for the players or the league.

Four players, James Harrison, Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers and Mike Neal, all are facing allegations of PED use stemming from a report by the now-defunct Al Jazeera America. The NFL decided they wanted to look into the issue, but the players seemed less than pleased to comply, maintaining that nothing had happened. Much of the report’s backing faded once the doctor at the heart of it recanted his statements.

Roger_Goodell
Goodell has the final say on all things regarding player discipline. (Wikimedia Commons)

However, the league still is insisting on meeting with the players, but the players all seemed unwilling to do so. Naturally, Roger Goodell responded by threatening to suspend the players.

No, seriously he did. Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, which runs through the 2020 season, Goodell has the power to act as judge, jury and executioner. Sounds unfair right? Well don’t feel too bad for the players.

This is their fault. Aaron Rodgers pointed out this week that the players have no one to blame but themselves for the amount of power Goodell has. They focused heavily on fewer padded practices and more mandatory days off to prevent injury during the 2011 negotiations. As a result, the league got to push a more stringent agenda regarding the powers of the league office and most notably Goodell.

The NFLPA is reportedly urging all of these players to take a stand against the NFL in this case to challenge Goodell’s power. However, it sounds like Peppers, Matthews and Harrison are all going to meet with the NFL in the coming days. Neal will not though as he is currently a free agent and theoretically has nothing to lose. The latest is that the NFLPA wants Neal to sue the league over the issue. There is no word on what Neal thinks of that plan yet.

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Mike Neal (far right) played most recently for the Green Bay Packers, along side the also accused Clay Matthews. (Wikimedia Commons)

On the surface, it seems like the players truly have nothing to lose in meeting with the NFL if they have not taken PEDs. They would have their names cleared and avoid a possible suspension. However, this goes much deeper than that. It seems that a number of players, especially Harrison, are fed up with the way that Goodell wields his power. Taking a stand would be a point of pride in acting as if the allegations were beneath you and a challenge to the authority of Goodell.

Unfortunately, after the results of Deflategate, where Tom Brady ultimately will have to serve his four game suspension, players have seen just how far Goodell and the league office are willing to go to maintain this power struggle. It takes a lot of investment to oppose the NFL on an issue like this because of the potential length of the proceedings. Not to mention the NFL’s persistence. We all thought Deflategate was as good as dead when Brady avoided suspension last season, only to find that the league managed to slap him with it this year instead.

The underlying point is that this will continue to be an issue until after the 2020 season, when the CBA is renegotiated. The scary thing is, with how intense the league has been about maintaining absolute control in player discipline, you have to wonder how willing it might be to budge. And if that is the case, we could be looking at another NFL lockout at the start of the decade. The NFLPA is not willing to back down from this fight and continues to look to find ways to challenge this standard even before the CBA is up.

This will be the main topic of those negotiations and you can bet those arguments are going to be very heated.

Understanding Phelps’ dominance

Chris McGlynn Olympics , ,

Michael Phelps claims that he swam his last Olympic race Saturday night in the 4X100 medley relay. His teammates aren’t convinced of that though.

Michael Phelps
At age 31, Phelps has said that this was his last Olympics. (Wikimedia Commons)

I would love to see Phelps keep competing. After all, US swimmer Anthony Ervin just won a gold medal at age 35. That is how old Phelps would be when the 2020 Olympics roll around.

Let’s assume though that the greatest Olympian ever really is done. It is time to put into perspective what he has accomplished.

His gold in the relay gave him 28 medals from Olympic competition. He is far and away number one on the list of most awarded male swimmers of all time, with second belonging to current teammate Ryan Lochte. Lochte “only” owns 12 medals of his own. An impressive seven of those are individual medals, meaning he was not part of a team that won the medal. Phelps has 13 individual medals, more than Lochte has total medals.

Outside of the US, the competition isn’t even close. Ian Thorpe of Australia is the top-ranked, non-American swimmer in terms of total medals in history with nine. Phelps blows away all swimming competition, with most of it coming within his own country.

Let’s looking outside swimming though, at the Olympics as a whole. How well has Phelps done there? Well, it turns out that he leads that group too, once again by a sizable margin. Larisa Latynina amassed 18 medals during the 50s and 60s competing for the Soviet Union in gymnastics. Reminder, Phelps has 23 gold medals alone and 28 in total. He has 10 more medals than any other Olympic athlete in history.

In terms of finishing first, the gap is even more staggering. Latynina is tied for second with nine golds along with Americans Mark Spitz and Carl Lewis as well as Finland’s Paavo Nurmi. The fact that Phelps has more than double the number of golds of any other athlete in history should speak volumes about the level of his dominance.

And if all of that wasn’t enough, the New York Times reported that Phelps broke records so old, Jesus wasn’t even born yet when it was set. Phelps won his 13th individual gold medal in the 200 meter IM at Rio this year, which pushed him past Leonidas of Rhodes. Leonidas won his final Olympic medals in the year 152 B.C. That means that Phelps toppled a 2,168-year old record. Just consider that for a second. Done? Yeah, it still hasn’t really sunk in.

The modern iteration of the games hasn’t provided Phelps with any real competition either. Latynina along with fellow Soviet members Nikolai Adrianov and Boris Shakhlin all have six individual gold medals. However, Phelps only narrowly beats out Latynina in terms of total individual medals, by a count of 16 to 14. Still, in ever sense of the word, Phelps is the greatest.

Michael_Phelps
Phelps added six more medals, five gold and one silver, in Rio. (Wikimedia Commons)

This level of dominance is unprecedented. No one has ever had this kind of success in really any other sport. It is not that Phelps just wins these races, he also swims his way through qualifying and semifinal rounds before even reaching the chance to compete for a spot on the podium.

Phelps competed in 30 Olympic finals during his long career. He won a medal in 28 of them. That means that Phelps reached the podium in 93.33 percent of those finals and won gold 76.7 percent of the time. Overall, he competed in 63 Olympic events, including qualifying and semifinal rounds. He or his team finished first 45 times. Even if a medal wasn’t on the line, Phelps won 71.4 percent of the time in his career at the Olympics.

It is hard to really wrap your head around what Phelps has done in his Olympic career. The reality is we will probably never see anyone like him again. The only one who might come close is Katie Ledecky, but we have a long ways to go before we can start truly comparing their medals.