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Things have changed quite dramatically for Spencer Rattler over the past four months. The soon-to-be former Oklahoma quarterback entered the season as the Heisman favorite and a fixture in the top five of NFL mock drafts. He seemed poised for a big year and almost assuredly would find himself playing pro football in 2022.
Instead, his season went a bit sideways. For the second year in a row, he was benched against rival Texas. This time though, he stayed on the bench as Caleb Williams engineered a dramatic comeback victory over the Longhorns in the Red River Showdown. Rattler did not start again the rest of the season and entered the transfer portal.
So how is it that this Heisman favorite and blue-chip prospect is suddenly off draft boards and looking for a new home? Consider it the fallacy of media hype and the assumption that players will only ever get better. Rattler had not earned that level of trust and confidence yet. Lincoln Riley had though, so we were all willing to bet on Rattler becoming the latest quarterback to flourish in his offense. He flashed high-end potential in his first season as the starter at OU, but there were also plenty of warning signs of what was to come.
In short, chalk it up to the Lincoln Riley effect finally failing. We expected Rattler to make a jump into elite quarterback territory. He didn’t. If anything, he regressed from his 2020 performance. This time, Riley just so happened to have a very capable replacement. However, this is not the end of the line for Rattler as a draft prospect. If he was capable of generating this much buzz once, he could assuredly draw the attention of NFL scouts again.
But where will he do it? Arizona State was the easy prediction early on for the Phoenix, Arizona native, but with Jayden Daniels returning to school, that rules out a move to Tempe. The list is still long. Let’s take a look at some schools where Rattler could be in line for immediate play on a big enough stage for him to reclaim the national spotlight.
Notre Dame Let’s start with a big-name program with legitimate title aspirations. Notre Dame’s only loss of 2021 came against Cincinnati and the Irish finished one spot out of a playoff spot. Jack Coan was a serviceable starter as a grad transfer from Wisconsin, but his eligibility is up and Notre Dame will certainly be looking for a new starter next year. Drew Pyne and Tyler Buchner are both four-star recruits that could be in line to start, but Rattler would be a better option than either of them for 2022. Pyne played the second half of the Cincinnati game and struggled. He finished 9-of-22 throwing, with a touchdown pass.
Buchner is seen as the future at the position, but could new head coach Marcus Freeman be interested in bringing in a veteran option with a lot more experience? This could be a bit of a risk for Rattler given that much of the coaching staff that recruited Buchner is still intact, but if he could win the job and perform well in South Bend, he would certainly have the clout necessary to generate positive draft buzz again. Notre Dame is known for having strong offensive lines and reliable run games as well. Both of those elements would likely make Rattler’s transition easier and would bode well for future success.
UNC This is operating under the assumption that Sam Howell declares for the NFL draft. Mack Brown has put UNC back in the national spotlight very quickly. The Tar Heels did not have the kind of season they had hoped for after opening the year at No. 10 in the AP poll, but the potential for offensive success is still incredibly high. Sam Howell put up some big numbers in his second year under Brown despite having his top two receivers and top two running backs playing in the NFL this season.
The potential is there for Rattler to do the same. Jacolby Criswell would be his main competition for the starting job. However, Rattler was a much higher-rated recruit coming out of high school. Playing in a pro-style offense in the ACC should give him the stage to flourish and rebuild his draft stock. Howell was generating buzz alongside Rattler as the potential first overall pick prior to the season. There is no doubt he could rebound in Chapel Hill.
Georgia This is an interesting and perhaps unlikely destination, but I think it could work well. Stetson Bennett is a redshirt senior, so he will not be back next season. J.T. Daniels still has one more year of eligibility remaining, but he has struggled to stay healthy and I’m not totally convinced the coaching staff believes in him at this stage. Brock Vandagriff could be in the mix as well. The former five-star recruit only appeared in two games this season though, so he will have four more years to work with.
Georgia is undoubtedly going to lose talent to the NFL, but Kirby Smart is arguably the best recruiter in the country. They will reload quickly on both sides of the ball. Putting Rattler in an offense that features Brock Bowers, a dominant running back room and maybe even George Pickens if he returns to Athens sets him up nicely to have success. If he can mature as a decision maker under Todd Monken and perform well against SEC defenses, the NFL will be lining up to watch Rattler play again.
LSU Brian Kelly could use a quarterback. The former Notre Dame coach inherits a roster with a lot of talent, but a huge hole at quarterback following transfers by Max Johnson and Myles Brennan. Garrett Nussmeier is still enrolled at the school and could be the future at the position, but it might take another year for him to be fully ready to start. There is also the tough spot he finds himself with regards to LSU’s bowl game. With Johnson and Brennan gone, he would be in line to start, but that would officially burn a year of eligibility.
It will be interesting to track how Kelly handles that situation. I don’t think it will impact how he approaches the quarterback situation for next year. LSU has five-star quarterback Walker Howard committed for 2022, but I think Kelly could pursue Rattler to give himself a veteran option to start his first season while he turns over the program. Most of LSU’s skill players will return for next year as well, led by Kayshon Boutte. Especially if Joe Brady happens to return to Death Valley, this feels like a dream scenario for Rattler.
UCLA/Oregon Some of this will hinge on what happens next with Chip Kelly. It looks like he is headed back to Oregon after four seasons with UCLA. However, the Bruins will still need a quarterback no matter who the coach is next year. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is graduating after a solid career and the only other quarterback in the mix right now is freshman Ethan Garbers, who transferred in from Washington this year. If Kelly leaves though, this becomes a much less appealing landing spot for Rattler.
Maybe Rattler could follow Kelly to Oregon though. Anthony Brown is done after spending five years with Boston College and Oregon. The Ducks have three freshmen that could all contend for the starting job, but the coach who recruited them there, Mario Cristobal, is now at Miami. It would not be a surprise to see at least one of them enter the transfer portal.
The bottom line is that Kelly’s offense probably bodes well for Rattler’s skillset. He is not quite as mobile as Thompson-Robinson or Marcus Mariota, who thrived under Kelly at Oregon back in the day. That is why this feels like such a good fit. Kelly has a decent track record of developing quarterbacks. Mariota went on to be the No. 2 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft. With Lincoln Riley headed to USC, there is also an opportunity for Rattler to stick it to his former coach. There is a lot to like about Rattler landing in the Pac-12, especially growing up in the Southwest.
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Kelly broke the record for most wins in Notre Dame program history in 2021. (Wikimedia Commons)
Brian Kelly became the first coach to ever leave Notre Dame for a different college job when he decided to head to the SEC and join LSU. He brings with him an impressive track record of recruiting and developing NFL-caliber offensive linemen, turning South Bend into a pipeline to the next level.
I should admit now that I am a big proponent of building a strong offensive line. If you gave me control of an NFL roster or asked me to build an expansion team, I would focus on building up a rock solid offensive line before doing anything else. I definitely subscribe to the idea of building in the trenches. I would even argue that having an elite offensive line is more important to team success than an elite quarterback. That quarterback cannot do much if he does not have time to throw. Anyway, I digress.
Yesterday, I talked about the impact of a coach moving programs and the long-term implications when a coach is known for developing a specific position group. Lincoln Riley’s move to USC bodes well for future Trojan quarterbacks finding success at the next level. He has a strong track record for developing quarterbacks and preparing them for the pros. It is fair to wonder if Kelly could do the same thing with the Tigers.
It is important to separate school history from future success. We saw this year how harmful that can be when D.J. Uiagalelei attempted to replace Trevor Lawrence at Clemson. In short, just because Ohio State has a long history of producing successful NFL defensive backs, that does not mean that every Buckeye corner will be a Pro Bowler. It is important to individually evaluate each player independent of where they went to school, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t look at history to guide where we start looking.
With all that in mind, Kelly developed a ton of high-end NFL starters across the offensive line in his time at Notre Dame. Quenton Nelson and Zack Martin are arguably the two best guards in the league. Ronnie Stanley and Mike McGlinchey, when healthy, are both quality starting tackles. Time will tell when it comes to the three offensive linemen drafted from Notre Dame in 2021. There could be another lineman or two selected in 2022, namely Jarrett Patterson.
Martin is a four-time First-Team All-Pro and six-time Pro Bowler. (Wikimedia Commons)
This begs the question: Can Kelly replicate this success at LSU?
Fans will obviously hope so. The Tigers have produced some talented linemen, though not at the same level as the Irish. Lloyd Cushenberry and Damien Lewis are both young starters in the league. Ethan Pocic actually starts next to Lewis in Seattle. The most successful LSU alum on the offensive line in recent years has to be Trai Turner, who went to five straight Pro Bowls from 2015 to 2019. Some success, but far from Nelson and Martin caliber.
Kelly will look to bring that success recruiting and developing linemen for the pros while not jeopardizing LSU’s already existing moniker of DBU. I know there are challenges by Ohio State, Alabama, Florida and strangely Texas to that title, but I firmly believe the true defensive back U is located in Baton Rouge. Tre’Davious White, Tyrann Mathieu, Patrick Peterson are among the best in the league. Kristian Fulton might not be far behind. Derek Stingley Jr. will likely be the latest top-10 defensive back in 2022. Alabama has a legitimate case with Patrick Surtain II, Trevon Diggs and Marlon Humphrey, but I still give LSU the edge.
Kelly has deep recruiting ties in the midwest from his time spent at Central Michigan, Cincinnati and Notre Dame. As it turns out, there are a lot of talented offensive linemen that hail from that region. Ryan Ramcyzk, Terron Armstead, Tristan Wirfs, Taylor Moton, Jack Conklin, Taylor Decker, Joe Thuney, Brandon Scherff, Corey Linsley and Zack Martin hail from either Ohio, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana or Michigan.
On top of that, Louisiana actually had the most active NFL players per capita at the start of the 2021 season. There will be talent for Kelly to work with. He needs to find a way to meld his midwest background with the recruiting hotbed in the Bayou. That is obviously easier said than done, but I think Kelly should be in position to accomplish it. He will need to fill out his staff with coaches who know the territory. While talent is important, having people who can help Kelly create inroads in a state that Kelly himself admitted he had never even been to prior to accepting the job will be vital in upping the program’s offensive linemen production while sustaining their success with developing elite defensive backs.
Much like Lincoln Riley’s move to USC, it will take several years to see the full impact on draft prospects. That being said, I will definitely be tracking LSU linemen a little more closely in the coming years, especially if Notre Dame offensive line coach Jeff Quinn does in fact follow Kelly to Louisiana.
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Lincoln Riley rocked the college football world when he left Oklahoma to become the new head coach at USC. With rumors swirling that Riley could be headed for Baton Rouge, his move to SoCal came as a shock. Before too long though, I began to wonder how this will impact the NFL draft.
I am fascinated by the draft and I always like to explore the ripple effects of moves like this. There is the obvious that Oklahoma is likely going to suffer a short-term setback while USC’s ceiling is raised substantially. How about the implications for USC’s quarterback production at the next level?
Riley is known as a quarterback guru, and for good reason. In a three-year span, Oklahoma produced two Heisman winners, a Heisman runner up, two No. 1 overall picks and a second-round pick. Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts are all starting quarterbacks in the NFL. It is very early in all of their careers, but it is safe to say Riley turned a lot of heads with his ability to make OU a quarterback factory.
Riley went 55-10 in five seasons at Oklahoma. (Wikimedia Commons)
Meanwhile, there is a lot of chatter about USC’s inability to produce NFL-caliber quarterbacks. Not in the draft process, several USC quarterbacks have been first-round selections over the past decade, but when it comes to actually achieving success in the pros, the Trojans are surprisingly lacking.
Since 2000, USC has produced a long list of quarterbacks that played in the NFL. Most have failed to live up to high expectations. Carson Palmer remains the most successful of the group, and he graduated in 2002. Mark Sanchez is still the last USC quarterback to win a playoff game, and that was in 2010.
A closer look sees a list that includes Matt Leinart, who only started 18 games in his pro career. He was a top-10 selection. So was Sanchez, who won a ton of games early in his career behind an incredible offensive line, an elite defense and a reliable run game. He hung around a while and managed to finish his career with a winning record as a starter. However, he also threw three more interceptions than he did touchdowns coupled with a career completion percentage of 56.6.
Matt Barkley followed Sanchez. He seemed poised to be a top-15 pick in 2012, but chose to return to school, had a horrible senior year and fell into the fourth round. He started seven games in six seasons in the NFL. Cody Kessler was next and never wowed scouts. A third-round selection, no one expected him to be a Hall of Famer, but three years split between the Browns and Jaguars ensured that his NFL career never got going. He appeared in nine games during Cleveland’s winless 2016 season as a rookie.
Darnold struggled with turnovers, committing 76 in 47 games. (Wikimedia Commons)
After that was Sam Darnold. The No. 3 pick in 2018, he went two picks after Mayfield, which was a bit of surprise at the time. Darnold has shown flashes in his four-year career, but the Jets cut bait after three seasons and shipped him to Carolina. After a strong start with the Panthers, his production fell off a cliff as he reverted to his interception-happy ways, tossing 11 in nine games. He was eventually benched a few times before suffering a season-ending injury. Carolina will be searching for a new starter in 2022 despite having Darnold under contract for another season for about $19 million.
Needless to say, USC quarterbacks have earned a reputation among draft evaluators. The old adage insists we scout the player, not the helmet. However, I am starting to believe in scouting the coach, if that makes sense. Certain schools have a good reputation for producing good players at certain positions. LSU, Ohio State and Alabama all excel at producing defensive backs that succeed in the NFL. Penn State was known for a long time for producing excellent linebackers. Most of the Big Ten is synonymous with elite offensive line play.
It does not mean that other schools are incapable of producing elite prospects at that position or that any players who goes through these programs are immediately going to be better in the NFL, but we can usually point to certain coaches for being able to recruit and develop well at different positions. There is a reason Alabama dominates the early rounds of every draft. Nick Saban knows how to recruit and develop. Same can be said for Kirby Smart on the defensive side of the ball. Kirk Ferentz has a penchant for producing NFL-caliber tight ends at Iowa.
Bottom line, something has to give. USC has struggled to produce quality NFL quarterbacks, but Riley is known for doing just that. It might be a bit premature to truly award him that recognition given that his three notable quarterbacks are still just getting started in the NFL. Riley’s most recent project was also a failure. Spencer Rattler lost his starting job in October despite entering the year as the Heisman favorite. He will be looking to transfer.
However, there is no doubt that Mayfield, Murray and maybe even Hurts are better NFL quarterbacks than anyone USC has produced this side of Palmer. Caleb Williams also flashed some incredible physical traits and won a lot of games for Oklahoma as a true freshman in relief of Rattler. Early returns indicate that Riley is in fact the real deal.
Slovis is rumored to be considering declaring for the NFL draft. (Wikimedia Commons)
So how soon could Riley snap this streak? Kedon Slovis entered the season as a potential first-round pick. By the end of the year, he went the way of Rattler and lost his job to a talented freshman. That freshman, Jaxson Dart, could be Riley’s first protégé in L.A. If not, Miller Moss, who stepped in for an injured Dart to finish the season against Cal, could be in line for that role. Dart and Moss were four-star recruits, ranking 10th and 12th respectively, in the 2021 recruiting class, according to 24/7 Sports.
What is more likely is that it will take a few seasons before we really see the Lincoln Riley effect take hold at USC. The Trojans do not have any quarterbacks currently committed for 2022. However, 2023 five-star recruit Malachi Nelson has already flipped his commitment from Oklahoma to USC to follow Riley. Nelson feels like the first quarterback that will truly be Riley’s handpicked option. He won’t be draft eligible until 2026 though.
So, it might take a while, but keep in mind that Mayfield, Murray and Hurts were all transfers to Oklahoma. It is very possible that Riley goes that route again. Former five-star Quinn Ewers announced he is transferring from Ohio State. Texas is believed to be the favorite to land Ewers, bringing him back to the Lone Star state, but could Riley lure him to USC? This is not to say Riley will bail on Dart and Moss, but he also did not recruit them.
My guess is that Riley will ride with either Dart or Moss for 2022 before giving Nelson a real chance to compete for the starting job when he arrives in 2023. It might not be immediate, but it feels like USC is finally in line to change the narrative around their quarterback prospects at the NFL level.
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Let’s take a look at the longest win streaks in the NFL right now. The Patriots (guess they are officially back) have won seven straight. The Chiefs (turns out they aren’t out of title contention yet) are winners of five in a row. As are the Dolphins (wait, is that right?) Washington (is this a typo) has won *checks notes* four straight games.
As the old saying goes, it’s not about how you start, it’s about how you finish. Surely, all of those teams would have preferred stronger starts to the year, but New England is now the top seed in the AFC while Kansas City leads the AFC West. Washington is currently in a wildcard spot and Miami is 1.5 games back of one. Just a reminder it is important not to overreact to September football. This is setting up a very interesting final few weeks of the NFL season.
Elsewhere, we had the Lions finally winning a game and the return of Minshew Mania! Here is how all 32 teams stack up through 13 weeks.
1. Arizona Cardinals: 10-2(Last Week: 1) Won 33-22 at Chicago One of the quietest 10-win teams in recent memory. Arizona welcomed Kyler Murray back to the starting lineup. He marked the occasion with four touchdowns in a comfortable win for the Cardinals. Not to be outdone, the defense came up with four interceptions of Andy Dalton to set the offense up for success. This team still has to prove itself in the postseason, but it is very possible the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC could run through the desert.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-3(Last Week: 2) Won 30-17 at Atlanta Tom Brady stays undefeated against the Falcons in his career. The Patriots did not play them very often, but that is still wildly impressive. Brady put up some huge numbers, marred only by a pick-six that kept the Falcons in the game just before halftime. Thankfully, the defense stepped up in the second half and shut out Atlanta over the final 30 minutes of action. Tampa still feels like it is ironing out some kinks. It is certainly scary to think they could get even better, but maybe a little worrying that we still see some uneven play in December.
3. Green Bay Packers: 9-3(Last Week: 3) Bye Week Few teams needed a bye week as badly as the Packers did. David Bahktiari, Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith are in line to practice this week. Those are the three high-impact players that will only raise the ceiling for a Green Bay team that is 9-2 with Aaron Rodgers in the starting lineup. Speaking of Rodgers, a week off likely gave him some time to rest his fractured toe. Same goes for Aaron Jones, who played in limited action against the Rams in Week 12. If this team can get healthy, look out.
4. New England Patriots: 9-4(Last Week: 4) Won 14-10 at Buffalo That was about as ugly as it gets, but the Patriots put on a masterclass in 1940s football. Mac Jones attempted just three passes in a slugfest that featured a lot of bend, don’t break defensive possessions. With gusting winds that made kicking and throwing very difficult, Bill Belichick leaned into his run game. The plan very nearly fell apart, but great red zone defense and a missed field goal in the fourth quarter saw New England keep its top seed in the AFC.
5. Kansas City Chiefs: 8-4(Last Week: 5) Won 22-9 vs. Denver Defense wins championships and it really looks like the Chiefs have a great defense right now. Kansas City held Denver out of the end zone for the first 55 minutes of action. Daniel Sorenson even got on the board with a defensive touchdown. Patrick Mahomes is still struggling to get on track, managing just 184 passing yards, no touchdown passes and an interception. He did punch in a rushing touchdown, but these are not the performances we have become accustomed to seeing from Mahomes.
6. Dallas Cowboys: 8-4(Last Week: 8) Won 27-17 at New Orleans Dallas picked up an important win to maintain a two-game lead in the NFC East. Following three losses in a four-game stretch, this felt like a must-win for the Cowboys. It certainly wasn’t the cleanest game we’ve ever seen from the offense. Dak Prescott threw a costly pick and the team went 2-for-13 on third down conversion opportunities. The defense covered up any issues though with four interceptions. Dan Quinn is running away with the Assistant Coach of the Year award given the turnaround for Dallas’ defense this season.
7. Los Angeles Rams: 8-4(Last Week: 9) Won 37-7 vs. Jacksonville Nothing like a get-right game against the Jaguars to help ease the pain. Los Angeles dominated Jacksonville in all three phases. Odell Beckham Jr. looked much more comfortable in the offense and got in the end zone again. The only concern was a brutal hit Matt Stafford took that briefly knocked him out the game. Rumors have persisted that Stafford has not been healthy for weeks. Seeing him take shots like the one Roy Robertson-Harris laid on him is worrying. If Stafford goes down, this team can kiss its already questionable championship hopes goodbye.
8. Indianapolis Colts:7-6(Last Week: 10) Won 31-0 at Houston For the second straight week, the Colts scored 31 points. However, this time around, they didn’t give up any points. Beating the Texans is far from something to highlight on your resume, unless you are the Jets. Credit Indianapolis for not playing down to the competition. While winning games is the most important thing, it would be good to see Frank Reich conserve Jonathan Taylor a bit more, especially in blowouts. He had 32 carries, playing well into the fourth quarter despite a three-score lead. Deon Jackson and Nyheim Hines eventually took over in the backfield, but keeping Taylor fresh for the stretch run would be a very wise move.
9. Baltimore Ravens: 8-4(Last Week: 6) Lost 20-19 at Pittsburgh If that ball was six inches closer to Mark Andrews, we would be talking about what a great decision this was from John Harbaugh to go for the win rather than play for overtime. I think it was the right move. Heading to overtime is literally a coin flip. It was a tough break. However, there are still some red flags. Pittsburgh sacked Lamar Jackson seven times. Comparatively, the Ravens managed just one sack of their own. This offense has a lot that needs resolving.
10. Los Angeles Chargers:7-5 (Last Week: 12) Won 41-22 at Cincinnati Los Angeles put the struggles from Week 12 behind them with a big bounce-back win over the Bengals. Justin Herbert looked sharp with over 300 passing yards and three passing touchdowns. Meanwhile, the defense was very opportunistic, forcing four turnovers, including a scoop and score from Tevaughn Campbell. Ball security was an issue for the Chargers as well though. Herbert threw an interception while Austin Ekeler coughed it up twice. Still, this was an important win to keep pace in the AFC West and the playoff race.
11. Cincinnati Bengals: 7-5 (Last Week: 7) Lost 41-22 vs. Los Angeles Will they or won’t they? Cincinnati continues to struggle with consistency. The Bengals have yet to win more than two games in a row. Every time it feels like they are beginning to build momentum, a somewhat surprising result brings them back down to Earth. Turnovers were a major issue as was pass protection. Joe Burrow was sacked six times and was clearly pressing throughout the game. All in all, it was not a good enough performance from the Bengals, who missed out on a chance to go atop the AFC North.
12. Buffalo Bills: 7-5(Last Week: 11) Lost 14-10 vs. New England New England ran it down Buffalo’s throat and the Bills could not reciprocate. Josh Allen was the team’s leading rusher with 39 of the team’s 99 yards. Meanwhile, the Patriots racked up 222 yards on the ground. While that is far from ideal, the more concerning aspect was the offense’s inability to convert in the red zone. A missed field goal and a failed fourth-down play limited Buffalo to just three points on three trips inside the 20 in the second half. A daunting trip to Tampa Bay is up next.
13. Tennessee Titans:8-4(Last Week: 13) Bye Week Did the Titans find a way to reinvent themselves during their bye week? Without Derrick Henry and a pair of banged up star receivers, Tennessee struggled mightily heading into its week off. Julio Jones could be back, but Ryan Tannehill cannot carry this team. His four-interception performance against the Texans proved that. All that said, Tennessee has one of the easiest closing schedules. The Jaguars, Steelers, 49ers, Dolphins and Texans remain. Just beating the Jaguars and Texans should get the Titans into the postseason.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers:6-5-1(Last Week: 18) Won 20-19 vs. Baltimore This feels like a big move up for a one-point win, but everyone around the Steelers seemingly lost this weekend. Pittsburgh did just enough to pull off the victory. It might have been a bit of a lucky break that saw them hold on, but they did a lot to create that luck, if you will. The Steelers had seven sacks and nine tackles for loss. They also scored the go-ahead touchdown and converted on the all-important two-point conversion that put them up by seven with less than two minutes to play. Take the wins however you can get them.
15. San Francisco 49ers:6-6(Last Week: 14) Lost 30-23 at Seattle The 49ers hit a speed bump. Maybe they were a little guilty of underestimating the Seahawks after Russell Wilson and company had floundered leading into this game. Jimmy Garoppolo tossed two interceptions while the offense managed just 2.8 yards per carry. Seattle gave San Francisco plenty of chances to win this game. The 49ers held a 23-14 lead at halftime, but their second half drives ended in a fumble, a safety, an interception, two punts and a turnover on downs. That is not a winning formula.
16. Cleveland Browns 6-6(Last Week: 19) Bye Week Suddenly, the outlook for the Browns does not seem so bleak. Losses by the Ravens and Bengals keep Cleveland within striking distance in the division. Plus, losses by the Bills, Raiders and Broncos keeps them firmly in the wildcard chase. With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt hopefully back at full strength and Baker Mayfield rested up, the Browns’ offense should be much more competitive. A rematch with the Ravens awaits.
17. Miami Dolphins:6-7(Last Week: 20) Won 20-9 vs. New York As I talked about earlier, this is quite the turnaround from Miami. Tua Tagovailoa is settling in nicely to the offense and taking care of the football. It certainly helped to face Mike Glennon instead of Daniel Jones, but this was still a pretty strong showing by the ‘Fins defense. Now if only Miami could run the ball consistently. The Dolphins get a week off before looking to continue their hot streak in a matchup with the Jets.
18. Philadelphia Eagles: 6-7 (Last Week: 21) Won 33-18 at New York Minshew Mania is back! Gardner Minshew made his first start for the Eagles and did not disappoint. Granted, it was against the Jets, but the former Jaguars quarterback was hyper efficient and provided a different element to the Eagles offense. He got tons of help from Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell, who combined for 229 yards of offense and a touchdown. Dallas Goedert was heavily involved in the offense as well. Nick Sirianni has already said that Jalen Hurts is still the starter. Hurts could return following the bye week, but if he struggles, Philly fans will be clamoring for Minshew to see more action.
19. Washington:6-6(Last Week: 23) Won 17-15 at Las Vegas I don’t know if winning 17-15 games is very sustainable, but Washington repeated the feat this week. Hometown hero Brian Johnson won it with a go-ahead 48-yard field goal in the final minute. It hasn’t been too pretty, but Washington is finding ways to win. It is far from likely, but with five divisional games remaining on the schedule, Washington controls its own fate.
20. Las Vegas Raiders: 6-6 (Last Week: 15) Lost 17-15 vs. Washington Another winnable game blown by the Raiders. Las Vegas now has losses to Washington, Chicago and the New York Giants. All three have felt like missed opportunities. Winning even two of them would have the Raiders tied atop the AFC West. Instead, Vegas is tied with Cleveland and Denver for 10th in the conference. Unfortunately, the Chiefs are next on the schedule.
21. Denver Broncos: 6-6(Last Week: 17) Lost 22-9 at Kansas City Fresh off a win over the Chargers, the Broncos absolutely fell flat against the Chiefs. Maybe a road win was too much to hope for, but three points through the first three and a half quarters is a disappointing output from the offense. Costly turnovers from Teddy Bridgewater were the difference in the game. If nothing else, this offered a clear reminder that the Broncos will be in the market for a quarterback this offseason.
22. Minnesota Vikings: 5-7(Last Week: 16) Lost 29-27 at Detroit It was bound to happen to someone eventually, but being the first team to lose to the Lions this year still stings quite a bit. Keep in mind, this team beat a mostly full-strength Packers side just two weeks ago. The offense got off to a sluggish start to life without Dalvin Cook, managing just six points in the first half. Minnesota stormed back to lead 27-23, but the defense wilted in the critical moments, giving up a walk-off touchdown. Turn back up the heat on Mike Zimmer’s seat.
23. New Orleans Saints:5-7(Last Week: 22) Lost 27-17 vs. Dallas Things look rough for the Saints right now. Taysom Hill finally got back on the field at quarterback and provided a spark with his mobility. Unfortunately, he suffered a similar injury to Russell Wilson, who missed a month with a torn ligament in his finger. Hill threw four interceptions, ending any hopes of upending the Cowboys. New Orleans has now lost five straight and show little sign of turning things around. It will be interesting to see if Sean Payton looks to bring in a free-agent quarterback.
24. New York Giants: 4-8(Last Week: 24) Lost 20-9 at Miami So maybe the quarterback isn’t the root cause of all the issues for the Giants offense. Mike Glennon looked mediocre, but didn’t get much protection either. He took eight hits and will begin this week in the concussion protocol. Now, it looks like New York will be starting Jake Fromm against the Chargers in Week 14. On the bright side, the Giants seem to be capable of running the ball. New York averaged 5.4 yards per carry. If Freddie Kitchens can establish the run early in the game and stay within reach, that will take a lot of pressure off the young quarterback.
25. Atlanta Falcons: 5-7 (Last Week:25) Lost 30-17 vs. Tampa Bay Stat to know: Atlanta has a point differential of -113 this season. Detroit has a point differential of -116. That is the sort of company the Falcons are keeping. Matt Ryan and the offense moved the ball up and down the field, but consistently stalled when it mattered most. Atlanta scored a touchdown on its first drive and then managed a field goal the rest of the game. This team is technically not far out of the playoff picture, but the Falcons do not feel anywhere near the playoff conversation.
26. Carolina Panthers:5-7(Last Week: 26) Bye Week In perhaps some of the most shocking and under the radar news of the weekend, the Panthers fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Sure, the Panthers offense has not lit the world on fire, but he is working with Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker and Cam Newton. Christian McCaffrey has played in just seven of the team’s 12 games so far. Carolina has also dropped 22 passes this year, second most in the NFL. Brady was considered one of the brightest young offensive minds in football. He was the architect behind LSU’s record-setting attack in 2019, when the Tigers won a national championship. If this was a reaction to Newton’s 5-of-21 passing performance against the Dolphins in Week 12, I think that is a huge mistake. Trying to find someone to build an offense around Newton is incredibly shortsighted. Brady will likely land on his feet. He will be a highly sought after offensive coordinator in the league and could be in the mix for a return to the college ranks.
27. Seattle Seahawks:4-8 (Last Week: 28) Won 30-23 vs. San Francisco While it might be too little too late for this season, this felt like a crucial win for the Seahawks. Ideally, this allows Russell Wilson to build some momentum and get this team trending in the right direction. Seattle still has a host of problems that need solving, namely its run game. Travis Homer ripped off a huge touchdown run on a fake punt, but that one play accounted for half of the team’s rushing yards on the afternoon. Neither Rashaad Penny nor Adrian Peterson could really get rolling. Shane Waldron has a chance to prove he can scheme some ways to spark the ground game.
28. Chicago Bears: 4-8(Last Week: 27) Lost 33-22 vs. Arizona QB1 had a rough day. Andy Dalton threw four interceptions in an embarrassing performance for the Bears offense. Somehow, Chicago did manage 22 points, but the defense simply could not overcome that many turnovers and short-field situations. Matt Nagy’s days in the Windy City are numbered.
29. New York Jets: 3-9 (Last Week: 29) Lost 33-18 vs. Philadelphia For one fleeting moment, it felt like the Jets were turning the corner. New York scored three touchdowns in the first half (even if they missed two field goals and failed on a two-point conversion attempt). There were some special teams miscues away from being tied at halftime. Instead, the Jets were shut out in the second half. Their four drives in the half resulted in a punt, an interception, a turnover on downs and the end of the game. Focusing on the positive is that Zach Wilson looked a bit better this week. As long as he continues to improve, results do not matter.
30. Detroit Lions: 1-10-1 (Last Week: 32) Won 29-27 vs. Minnesota When is the ticker tape parade??? Detroit reacted a bit like it had won the Super Bowl. While winning one meaningless regular season game is not really cause for celebration usually, this a huge weight off Dan Campbell and his entire team. The Lions had come agonizingly close on several occasions this year. This ensures that this Detroit side will not join the infamous group of winless teams. Who knows, maybe Campbell can even build off this. I wouldn’t consider it likely, but I also wouldn’t want to be the Broncos this week.
31. Houston Texans: 2-10 (Last Week: 30) Lost 31-0 vs. Indianapolis Congratulations to the Texans for being the first team to be eliminated from playoff contention! Houston managed 141 yards of offense on an ungodly 2.8 yards per play. Tyrod Taylor suffered another injury as well, which means Davis Mills takes the reins again. Things are going to get much worse in Houston before they get better.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-10 (Last Week: 31) Lost 37-7 at Los Angeles It’s days like Sunday where I am left to sit around and wonder how on Earth the Jaguars managed to beat the Bills.
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After an exhilarating college football regular season, we have finally reached championship weekend. The SEC, Big 12, AAC and Big Ten championship games all carry a ton of significance with each one featuring at least one team ranked in the College Football Playoff committee’s top six. In the case of the SEC, both teams are in the group.
While it is likely we will see all the higher ranked teams win and a fairly predictable final four, Oklahoma State would probably replace Alabama in the top 4, this season has been anything but predictable. Each game could offer a really interesting wrinkle in determining which teams will compete for a national title. Here is the impact each game from championship weekend will have on the playoff.
SEC Championship Game No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 3 Alabama Saturday, 4 p.m. ET on CBS
This obviously has the biggest impact of any game this weekend. Georgia is one of just two undefeated D-I teams in the country this season, Cincinnati being the other. Meanwhile, Alabama has struggled a bit defensively in recent weeks, losing to Texas A&M earlier this season. However, the Tide have won six of the past nine SEC titles. The Bulldogs only have one SEC title since 2005. Kirby Smart has also never beaten his former boss, Nick Saban. There is a ton of the line for both sides and definitely some history to be made.
If Georgia wins… The Bulldogs will stay at No. 1 and cruise into the College Football Playoff at 13-0. Things become tricky on the other side of the matchup. A two-loss team has never made the final four. Alabama would be 11-2 on the season with a loss. That likely eliminates them, but there are scenarios where the Tide could still get in. However, they would need a lot to go their way. Baylor would have to win the Big 12 over Oklahoma State and at least one of Cincinnati or Michigan would have to lose. That would set up a playoff composed of Georgia, Cincinnati or Michigan, Notre Dame and then one more team. Alabama would likely be up against Baylor, Ohio State and potentially Oregon for that final spot. Perhaps the committee would like to avoid a rematch. It is far from a guarantee, but ‘Bama would be in the mix if it is a close game.
The only other scenario I can think of would be if Michigan and Cincinnati both lost their conference championship games. Regardless of who wins the Big 12, Alabama would once again be in the conversation. Notre Dame could move up to No. 2 if Baylor wins while Alabama, Ohio State and Oregon, if it wins the Pac-12, would be in the mix for the final two spots. Would the committee opt for conference champions and pick Baylor and Oregon? Maybe, but it feels more likely that Alabama or Ohio State beats out one of those teams.
If Alabama wins… The Tide almost assuredly move up to No. 1. Maybe Michigan would, but being the first team to beat Georgia would be a pretty big resume booster. That likely sees two SEC teams in the playoff. Georgia could slide down to No. 3 and face the Wolverines, assuming they beat Iowa. Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and company would all be fighting for the final spot. Georgia is pretty much the only team that could conceivably lose this weekend and comfortably make the playoff. Other teams certainly could if the right results break their way, but I don’t see a scenario where the Bulldogs are left out.
Big Ten Championship Game No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 13 Iowa Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on FOX
Jim Harbaugh finally got that Ohio State-shaped monkey off his back, but Michigan’s job is not done yet. Beating the Buckeyes is a huge momentum boost and should buy Harbaugh some good will with Wolverines fans, but it would be a disappointment not to see them finish the season with a conference championship and a berth in the College Football Playoff. On the flip side, it was not that long ago that Iowa was in position to reach the playoff, climbing all the way to No. 2 in the AP Poll this season. Now, the Hawkeyes are just hoping to spoil the Wolverines celebrations and win their first conference championship game.
If Michigan wins… The Wolverines will be in the playoff and Harbaugh will likely be in line for a further extension that his current deal that runs through 2025. Michigan could climb to No. 1 if Alabama knocks off Georgia, but that could also see the Tide surge right past them. For Iowa, there is not a ton that changes. They will probably be one of the top Big Ten teams to receive bowl invitations. The Citrus Bowl seems to be a likely landing spot.
If Iowa wins… Rose Bowl baby! A win for the Hawkeyes would see them play in the “Granddaddy of them all”, surging into the top 10 of the rankings as well. For the CFP implications, there are many. Michigan would almost definitely be out. A two-loss non-conference champion stands basically no chance of reaching the playoff, but the Wolverines are ranked at No. 2 right now. If Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and Alabama all lose, there could be a way Michigan sneaks in. Unlikely, I know, but would the committee put Ohio State, whom Michigan just beat, in ahead of them? Maybe the playoff ends up being Georgia, Notre Dame, Baylor and Oregon in that scenario.
A Michigan loss opens the door for a number of other teams to get in. There will be a lot of teams rooting for Iowa to pull off the upset. That being said, it is hard to see the Hawkeyes moving all the way from No. 13 into the top four. Iowa can solely play spoiler.
American Athletic Conference Championship Game No. 4 Cincinnati vs. No. 21 Houston Saturday, 4 p.m. ET on ABC
Easily the biggest AAC title game ever, Cincinnati hosts this monumental showdown with Houston. It will be the fifth time that the game will consist of two ranked teams, but this time, there are legitimate College Football Playoff implications. That has to matter. In a year where the ACC has no shot and the Pac-12 needs about six different things to break their way, it is pretty interesting to see the AAC’s place in college football’s national hierarchy. Unfortunately, both these teams are heading to the Big 12 in 2024. Enjoy it while it lasts.
If Cincinnati wins… Then the Bearcats should be in. It is far from a guarantee. The committee has an unrelenting bias against Group of 5 schools. If Cincinnati were to struggle a bit in the victory and Oklahoma State looks strong against Baylor, we could see the Cowboys leapfrog Luke Fickell’s team. If Alabama beats Georgia, then there is a good chance Cincinnati would get frozen out yet again and the nation would go into an uproar over expansion. Houston will likely find itself playing in some meaningless bowl game despite an 11-2 season.
If Houston wins… Told you so. That’s what the committee will be feeling. They have questioned Cincinnati’s strength of schedule all year long despite the Bearcats owning one of the best wins in the country. A loss would end Cincinnati’s playoff hopes and potentially drop them out of the top 10. The door would unquestionably open for Oklahoma State, Notre Dame and others to move up and maybe even Alabama to stay in the mix even if it loses. Houston would likely vault into a better bowl game, but don’t expect to see them in a New Year’s Six game. They would likely be playing after Christmas though.
Big 12 Championship Game No. 5 Oklahoma State vs. No. 9 Baylor Saturday, 12 p.m. ET on ABC
Quietly the only conference outside of the SEC to feature two top-10 teams, the Big 12 is hoping to send a team other than Oklahoma to the playoff for the first time ever. Oklahoma State being ranked above Notre Dame in Tuesday’s rankings definitely opens the door for Cowboys to get in with a win. Baylor could also crash the party, although the committee moved the Bears down a spot after a narrow victory over Texas Tech.
If Oklahoma State wins… The Cowboys could be in the playoff. Mike Gundy also might be named the mayor of Stillwater. Oklahoma State is going to need just a little bit of help. If Georgia beats Alabama, that likely opens up a spot. As the top ranked team outside the top four, OK State will almost assuredly get the nod. There is even a scenario where the Cowboys could jump Cincinnati, which I touched on earlier. The committee definitely feels Oklahoma State is facing better competition with Baylor at No. 9 and Houston at No. 21. A convincing win could see them get in if Cincinnati struggles. Plus, the Cowboys would have three wins over top-10 opponents.
If Baylor wins… Things will get really murky. The Bears winning is not enough to get them in. They would certainly need some help. However, beating a top-five team would definitely give their resume a boost and put them in the conversation. If Michigan, Cincinnati and Alabama all lose, unlikely, but possible, Baylor should have a legitimate shot. A Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Baylor playoff could make sense at that stage. If we have learned anything over the years, it is that the committee tends to favor conference champions. Maybe Alabama or Michigan would still get in over Baylor, but it is not out of the question.
However, there is something to be said for the Bears dropping to No. 9. More significantly, they moved behind Ole Miss. The Bears will have a chance to redeem themselves, but that clearly indicates that the committee is not overly impressed by their resume at this point. We have never seen a team jump from this far back into the playoff in the final week of the rankings.
Pac-12 Championship Game No. 10 Oregon vs. No. 17 Utah Friday, 8 p.m. ET on ABC
Maybe just leave ABC on all weekend, with four conference championship games airing between Friday and Saturday. I already mentioned that the ACC title game has no bearing on the College Football Playoff. There is a chance that the Pac-12 doesn’t either. Oregon and Utah both have at least two losses entering Friday’s game. There is still plenty to play for with a trip to the Rose Bowl on the line, but the implications on the national landscape are more peripheral.
If Oregon wins… Could the Ducks make the playoff? Probably not, but apparently anything goes in 2021. Let’s say Georgia beats Alabama while both Michigan and Cincinnati lose. The door suddenly opens for Oregon. Notre Dame would be in. The Big 12 champion likely would be, too, even if Baylor wins. Would the committee take Alabama or Michigan fresh off a loss? How about Ohio State, whom Oregon beat earlier this season? It gets a bit unclear. Likely, Alabama would get the nod, but a Power 5 conference champion would certainly be in the conversation. There is also something to be said for the Ducks avenging their most recent loss of the season.
I’m not saying it is likely, but at that point, the committee would be picking between two-loss Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Ole Miss and Oregon. It becomes an interesting discussion. The fact that Oregon is ranked behind all of them and facing a team outside the top 10 makes it feel unrealistic. Maybe a win by Oregon makes Ohio State’s resume look better? I don’t know. This year has just been so confusing.
If Utah wins… Go enjoy the Rose Bowl and revel in beating the Ducks twice. Utah will not be in the playoff. This year is weird, but not weird enough for a three-loss team to somehow reach the final four. Mario Cristobal could be headed for Miami though as a result. Food for thought.
The Aftermath 