Author: Chris McGlynn

NFC Playoff Scenarios

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , , , ,

Week 17 in the NFL is approaching quickly and while the playoff picture is beginning to take shape, there is still a lot of shuffling around that can occur. I am going to take some time here to explain all of the scenarios and then tell you which I think is the most likely.

Here is what we already know: five of the six teams getting into the playoffs have been figured out. Seattle, Dallas, Arizona, Detroit and Green Bay have all earned playoff berths. That is about all that has been determined in the NFC. There is an incredible amount of moving around that can occur in the final week. Let’s start looking at some of the possibilities.

For Seattle, a win would mean home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Seahawks control their destiny and beating Saint Louis at home on Sunday would make Seattle a legitimate threat to return to the Super Bowl as long as the Packers and Lions do not tie this weekend and Dallas does not win. That is really specific but that would give the Cowboys a tiebreaker over Seattle. The Seahawks can still hang on to a home playoff game even with a loss to the Rams if the Cardinals lose as well but the Hawks would not have a first round bye. I think a Seahawks win is the most likely outcome. The Rams have been up and down all year and Seattle seems to be hitting its stride.

Dallas is in a weird spot between the first, second and third seed. Jerry Jones’ team can’t go any lower. A win over Washington is essential and the only way Dallas earns the first seed is if the Lions and Packers tie this weekend while Seattle wins or Arizona loses. It is an odd scenario that would trigger a tiebreaker over Seattle because Dallas beat them head to head but lost to Arizona. That means Dallas would need Seattle to win the division so that the tiebreaker with the Cardinals does not come into effect. The Cowboys need a lot of help too to get that second seed. With a Cardinals loss and a Seahawks loss on Sunday the Cowboys would lock up a first round bye, even if Washington beats them. Dallas could also end up second if the Lions and Packers tie, the Cardinals win and the Seahawks win. The Cowboys will more likely be playing as the third seed come wildcard weekend as I don’t see both Arizona and Seattle falling or a tie in the NFC North title game. I do think Dallas will trounce Washington though to gain momentum going into the playoffs.

The Lions have quietly lined themselves up for home field advantage this season. Detroit will finish as the first seed with a victory in Green Bay and a loss by the Seahawks. Most of what happens to the Lions depends on a win over the Packers. Even if Seattle wins, Detroit will still have a first round bye if it holds off Aaron Rodgers and company. A loss at Lambeau will set the Lions back to a wildcard spot as the sixth seed. Detroit cannot earn the fifth seed because of tiebreakers the Cardinals and Seahawks hold. A tie against Green Bay could make things weird. Detroit would win the division but would be stuck as the third seed if Dallas and Arizona or Seattle wins. That is extremely unlikely but it could happen. Unfortunately for Lions’ fans, sixth is where I think Detroit will finish. Winning at Lambeau field has been a tough thing to do for a very long time, especially against Aaron Rodgers.

The Cardinals will need a win over the 49ers but must rely on some outside help to get a first round bye. Assuming Arizona wins, then Seattle must fall in Saint Louis and the Lions must win in Lambeau for the Cards to clinch home field advantage. Bruce Arians’ squad has a tiebreaker over the Lions but not over the Packers, meaning a Detroit win is pivotal for the Cardinals chances. A loss against the 49ers would mean being the fifth seed or even the sixth seed if the Packers and Lions tie. Arizona will win the division with a win or tie and a Seattle loss. A tie against San Francisco plus a Dallas and a Detroit or Green Bay win would make the Cardinals the third seed. All these potential ties make the NFC a crazy place. I think Arizona finishes as the fifth seed based on a likely Seattle victory no ties between Detroit and Green Bay.

Speaking of the Packers, Green Bay has a lot of shuffling to do. A win over Detroit means a division title and a first round bye with a Seattle win. If Seattle loses, then Green Bay has home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Arizona’s result does not matter due to a Packers’ tiebreaker. With a loss or a tie though, Green Bay would be a wildcard. A loss will mean the Pack is the sixth seed. A tie and a loss by either Arizona or Seattle would give the Packers the fifth seed. I think the Packers will win but so will Seattle meaning Green Bay will finish as the second seed.

The fourth playoff seed is the easiest one to figure out. If the Panthers win or tie with Atlanta then Carolina wins the NFC South and plays as the fourth seed. If the Falcons win then Atlanta is the NFC South champion and fourth seed. Finally, something is simple. I think Atlanta wins this game. Matt Ryan has been on a bit of a tear recently and the defense looks solid.

That’s all the possible scenarios here. So my wild card round matchups would be the Cowboys hosting the Lions and Arizona visiting Atlanta to play. Keep an eye for first round predictions once the playoff field is set. To see the AFC playoff scenarios, click here. Hope you enjoy this final week of regular season football.

Nets looking to restart?

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA , , , , ,

The rumors have quieted a little bit but apparently, the Brooklyn Nets might be looking to hit the reset button. The Nets front office locked up what was occasionally referred to as “The Big 5.” It began years ago when the Nets picked Brook Lopez in the 2008 NBA Draft. Brooklyn traded with Utah back in 2011 to land Deron Williams. The front office stepped up and traded for Atlanta’s Joe Johnson in 2012. The Nets finished collecting superstars in 2013 when they made a draft night trade to acquire Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce from the Boston Celtics. This group has been together for less than two full years. That is a pretty small window of opportunity to prove that this group win a title, but it seems like they are running out of time fast.

Pierce already jumped ship and joined the Washington Wizards as a free agent this past off-season. Lopez has been injury prone playing only 33 games since the start of last season. Williams’ ankles have rendered him slow and unable to cope with the same number of minutes he once played. Garnett is starting to show his age. Not many players can still contribute at 38 years old. Johnson is the only one who has continued to perform in a Nets uniform into 2014. He is the only one of this starting five (well now four with Pierce gone) that I can see staying with the Nets past this years’ trade deadline. At least the only one the Nets might want to keep. Plus, his contract is difficult to move. Lopez might not be able to be moved because of his injury history. Brooklyn should find suitors for Garnett and Williams. Neither one of them can carry a team the NBA anymore but they can both contribute to a title contending team. Here is where I could see those two moving.

Williams could go to another team in the Eastern Conference such as Indiana who has been devastated by injuries at guard this year. Williams could also move to the other team from the Eastern Conference Finals last season in Miami. The Heat has been looking for an upgrade at point guard over Mario Chalmers for years. Shabazz Napier could become that player in a few seasons but he is not that player right now. Houston has been busy recently with trades but it could potentially be in play for a move for Williams. Having him setting James Harden and Dwight Howard is a scary thought. I think the most likely possibility here is Miami as they are the ones with the most tradable pieces.

For Lopez, if he is moved. I could see him landing in Golden State. The Warriors tried hard to land Kevin Love but instead they could land Lopez and make a title run if he can stay healthy. The Lakers have also been in the market for anyone who is not currently under contract. Getting a big man who can score in the paint won’t get the Lakers to the playoffs but it will get them on the right track and maybe help them acquire another big name player in the off season. The Suns could also be in play for Lopez. Phoenix could use an upgrade at center and could move Eric Bledsoe finally as has been rumored for about a year now.

Lastly, Garnett might find his way back to one of his former teams. I could see him playing for either Minnesota or Boston in his final few seasons as a way for the organizations draw fans while they rebuild. I could also see him joining Toronto if it chooses to add another frontcourt weapon before making a playoff run. The Raptors currently sit atop the Eastern Conference but a deeper team featuring Amir Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas and Garnett rotating in could be scary for teams to deal with.

I don’t know if the Nets organization will definitely hit the panic button and restart but I think it might be a wise move. The longer this team stays together, the more Brooklyn is putting off attempting to find young talent to replace this aging crew. I think the Nets need a fresh start. Building around Joe Johnson for the time being could be the plan. They might also hope that building around Lopez is still an option. Either way, this team needs to start moving in a different direction.

The post-Rondo rebuild begins in Boston

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA , ,

I guess Boston knew they had to rebuild already but now the Celtics are in for a full scale remodeling. Celtic’s General Manager Danny Ainge just pulled the trigger on shipping away Boston’s last piece from the Big 3 era: Rajon Rondo is now a Dallas Maverick. That is a great thing for Dallas fans, but we will get to that in a little bit. Right now, I want to look at the Celtics side of things.

The trade officially sends Rajon Rondo to the Mavericks in exchange for Jae Crowder, Jameer Nelson and Brandon Wright as well as a future first and second round draft pick. Boston might lose their superstar but it gains three competent veterans that can contribute and the draft picks allow them to continue building this young team. The Celtics already have some promising young players in Marcus Smart, Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynek. There are a couple players who could still pan out in Evan Turner and Tyler Zeller as well. While Boston is still a while away from being a title contender again, adding Nelson, Crowder and Wright is a plus. And this team is still only half a game out of a playoff spot in the unbelievably weak Eastern Conference. Wright has been having a very consistent and efficient year contributing on both ends of the court. Nelson is a decent scoring option and does well distributing the ball. Crowder is young and cheap. Another piece Celtics’ coach Brad Stevens has a chance to mold. None of these guys are starters by any means but they are all solid role players who can contribute and make an NBA team better.

Now for the Mavericks’ side of the deal. Dallas managed to avoid giving up very much, the one that hurts the most is Wright because of his contributions on both ends. Nelson was not getting any better at 31 years old and Crowder was barely averaging 10 minutes a game. Mavericks’ General Manager/Owner Donnie Nelson managed to keep his team mostly intact and he landed an All-Star point guard. Rondo brings a little flare offensively to the Dallas Mavericks. He is not a great shooter as it is often pointed out but he is the best distributor in the NBA. And now you pair him up with the likes of Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis and Chandler Parsons, Rondo will be dishing out more assist than ever. I think it will also make Rondo into a better offensive player because he will have to shoot less and he won’t be the center of attention for the defense. Rondo also gives Dallas a good perimeter defender. He is averaging 1.68 steals per game this year, good for 11th in the league this year. Hopefully, it will improve a Dallas defense that is allowing the seventh most points per game. Assuming there are no bumps in the transition, this makes the Mavericks a title contender in the West. Rondo is an upgrade of current starter J.J. Barea, who will still fill an important role off the bench for Dallas. Rondo is still only playing around 32 minutes per game meaning Barea will still see playing time.

This trade involves two teams going in very different directions. Boston continues to plunge into rebuild mode while Dallas just elevated itself to a top pick to win the rugged Western Conference and likely the NBA title this season. While that may be true, both teams benefited from this deal. Dallas landed their final assumed final piece to the puzzle and is poised to make a title run while Boston cashed in on Rondo while it still could, as he was likely to leave in free agency otherwise. Only time will tell who got the better end of the deal but right now, Dirk Nowitzki must be really happy he took that pay cut this summer to give the Mavericks flexibility with cap space. It is likely going to pay off with a deep playoff run this year. The interesting question is will Rondo stay will Dallas passed this season. But that is something to worry about later. For now, sit back and watch Rondo assist Nowitzki on one of his famous fadeaways. It will take a while to get used to that, especially for Boston fans.

Thursday Night Preview: Week 16

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL ,

Week 16 kicks off tonight with an AFC South matchup between the Jaguars and Titans. This is not one of the exciting games between title contenders but it is a battle to avoid finishing last in the division. It is also likely that one of these teams will be holding the first pick in the NFL draft next May and this game will play a part in determining which team that is. Tennessee is coming off a mostly awful performance against the Jets last week while Jacksonville lost a tough game in Baltimore. Both teams are really more suited to begin looking towards next year but that starts with tonight’s contest. We should see some young players getting a shot to impress the coaching staff and earn themselves a job for next season.

<span “font-size:13.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:”times=”” mso-bidi-font-family:arial”=”” roman”;=””>Tennessee has been a mess this year. They have had three different starting quarterbacks in as many weeks now with Charlie Whitehurst getting tonight’s start. The only other quarterback on the roster is the recently sign Jordan Palmer. If Whitehurst were to get hurt, Palmer would be thrust into action, who has only attempted 15 regular season passes in his six-year career. The running game has not been very effective for Tennessee either ranking in the bottom quarter of the league. Defensively Tennessee has managed to hold up through the air, sitting around the middle in terms of yards allowed per game but on the ground, the defense has gotten blasted for a league-high 140 yards per contest. Tennessee might be able to hold their own tonight though as Jacksonville’s running back Dennard Robinson is out injured. Look for the Titans to work hard shutting down the running game, making Jaguars’ rookie Blake Bortles have to start carrying the offense. Bortles has been turnover prone this year and the Titans will be hopefully the rookie coughs up a couple more if he forced to throw a lot. On offense, look for a lot of shorter passes, or at least passes that don’t travel too far in the air. Whitehurst does not have the strongest arm, but he can be very accurate on the short to intermediate distance throws.

The Titans are falling apart while the Jaguars are starting to build some momentum. The Jaguars beat the Giants a few weeks back and had an impressive defensive showing last week in Baltimore. That is not exactly stringing together strong performances but it is a start. Jacksonville will also be looking to avenge a two-point loss to Tennessee earlier this year. The Jaguars have improved since the last matchup as well. Jacksonville’s defensive line has been playing better. Unfortunately, the offense is still sputtering. The offensive line has been abysmal and the running game has faded a bit. However, I still think this team has enough talent to beat Tennessee, whose offensive line, and offense in general is banged up.

Prediction: The Titans have lost two many players on offense to compete. Between the two quarterbacks ahead of Whitehurst, the versatile Dexter McCluster and several offensive linemen out for tonight, I don’t expect much. Jacksonville manages to run the ball enough to keep all of the pressure off of Bortles and the Jaguars win 20-10.

What it means to bench Jay Cutler

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL ,

The Chicago Bears announced yesterday that Jimmy Clausen will be the new starting quarterback going forward. That means that the veteran Jay Cutler will be riding it out on the bench for the last two weeks of the season, barring an injury. This move was preempted by the comments released last week that the Bears’ front office and coaching staff was feeling some “buyer’s remorse” after signing Cutler to a big extension in the off season that has left the team both cash strapped and in an unenviable position. This is showing some signs as well that current coach Marc Trestman will not go down without a fight. Trestman’s job is rumored to be on the line and the Bears’ poor play of late is not helping his odds. Everyone has pegged this as being Cutler’s fault though. Clearly he bears the burden for the team’s failures right? Well maybe not. Let’s take a second look.

Cutler is actually in the midst of a career year in Chicago. I won’t go as far as to say that he deserved all of the money he makes right now but he is definitely a serviceable starter in the NFL. Cutler was on pace to put up over 4,000 yards, something he had never done as a Bear and he already threw for a career high in touchdowns. His completion percentage is well above his career average (66.1 compared to 61.7). His quarterback rating is also at a career high while his QBR (rating system that takes into account a quarterback’s full body of work in a game) is on par with past years. The league leading 18 interceptions jump out as an indicator of a bad year but in reality Cutler has been about as average as they come.

Does that mean that he gets a pass? Absolutely not. With an offense consisting of Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffrey and Martellus Bennett, you should not be a 5-9 team if you are a good quarterback. But all of the blame should not fall on Cutler. The Bears defense has been one of the worst in the league. This unit is giving up an average of 6.1 yards per play, tied for third worst in the league. Chicago has given up the second most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns. The run defense has been mostly average all year falling in the middle of the pack for yards and touchdowns allowed. On the whole though, the Bears have allowed the most points per game to opponents out of any team in the NFL. There Bears’ offense might not have lived up to all of its expectations but it is not hard to see why they get outscored week in and week out.

The rushing attack hasn’t been much help either. The Bears rank in the bottom quarter of the league when it comes to running the ball and Chicago’s running backs have fallen right in line with the league average per carry (4.1). By no means is the ground attack something Cutler can rely on if he is struggling or some of his top targets, most recently Brandon Marshall, are hurt. The Bears also do not have the luxury of being able to run because of how frequently they find themselves trailing in the second half of games.

So no, Jay Cutler should not be forgiven for every mistake he has made and immediately named to the Pro Bowl but the Bears woes this season do not fall all on his shoulders. Yet, time and time again, the quarterback seems to be the one who is praised when the team does well, and the one who is scapegoated when the team struggles. That is just part of the job. Cutler’s laid back attitude probably doesn’t help his image much either when it comes to fans who think he does not care enough to work harder. Unfortunately, this team needs a bit more than just an attitude change to compete again. It might begin with Cutler, but it certainly goes much deeper than that.