Author: Chris McGlynn

2015 New York Yankees predictions

Chris McGlynn Baseball, MLB ,

by Matt Luppino

Ah, it’s the most wonderful time of the year. No it’s not the holiday season, it’s not summer vacation, and it’s not even March Madness (technically it’s April Madness now).

That’s right.  It’s baseball season once again. A time when everything in a sport completely resets. A time when last place teams can win a championship a season later. And a time when Yankee fans once again revel in the past… wait, that’s every day.

This year’s 2015 Yankees face an uphill battle after what frankly the ball club will call an unsuccessful season last year. Finishing 84-78 while marred by injuries, the Bronx Bombers missed the playoffs for the second year in a row for the first time since the early 90s, and did not do much to improve. Yes, long time captain, fan favorite, and baseball icon Derek Jeter retired, going out in spectacular fashion in his last home game, but the losses of closer David Robertson, who signed with the Chicago White Sox, and starter Hiroki Kuroda, to the Japanese league, were also unexpected and could prove costly. And of course, after a year-long suspension filled with lawsuits and media hysteria, Alex Rodriguez returns to the diamond.

Here are my grades and predictions for the Yankees this season:

Starting Rotation: B-
Opening Day:
Masahiro Tanaka R
Michael Pineda R
CC Sabathia L
Nathan Eovaldi R
Adam Warren R

The entire Yankees team faces huge question marks, but this is one of their largest.  The rotation was largely affected by injuries last year, some of which are still not resolved.  Tanaka’s elbow, which shut him down after a masterful first half last season, appears healthy but not to full strength.  The same can be said about Sabathia’s knee, though the aging left-hander still needs to learn how to adjust to the lack of velocity in his pitches now, a fact that has haunted him the past few seasons. The addition of the young flamethrower Eovaldi is intriguing, but last season his control often escaped him.  This group has a lot of promise if they manage to pitch to their potential, but there is also a chance that Tanaka and Sabathia could reinjure themselves too.  The X-factor here: Ivan Nova is expected to return from Tommy John surgery in May or June, which would add another strong starter to this team and put Warren back in the bullpen, where he was very strong last year.  If he returns to form, Tanaka once again pitches like the ace we saw a glimpse of last year, and Eovaldi, and Pineda for that matter, find the strike zone, then this could be one of the stronger rotations in baseball.

Bullpen: A-
Opening Day:
Closer: Dellin Betances R
Set-Up: Andrew Miller L
David Carpenter R
Justin Wilson L
Esmil Rogers R
Chasen Shreve L

In spite of the loss of Robertson, one of the top closers in baseball, he could have just been replaced with someone even better.  Betances, an All-Star last season, struck out 135 batters in only 90.0 innings last season, a rate of 13.5 K/ 9 IP.  His ERA of 1.40 and WHIP of 0.78 were among the tops in baseball as well.  He has struggled this spring, but if the adrenaline of a regular season game kicks in, he should be a dominant pitcher once more.  Crafty lefty Andrew Miller offers a strong alternative, for he is equally strong against batters on both sides of the plate.  David Carpenter and Justin Wilson are hard throwers, righty and lefty-specialists respectively.  Plug Warren back into here, and this is one of the best pens in baseball.

Lineup: Ranging from C- to B+…let’s go with a B- for now
Opening Day:
Jacoby Ellsbury L
Brett Gardner L
Carlos Beltran S
Mark Teixeira S
Brian McCann L
Chase Headley S
Alex Rodriguez R/Garrett Jones L
Stephen Drew L
Didi Gregorius L

Why a range?  Because this lineup could be either really good or really bad.  On the good side, Ellsbury and Gardner can both be scary on the basepaths and will set up well for the heart of the lineup.  From the 1-7 spot in this lineup is homerun power, especially with the short porches at Yankee Stadium.  Plus, Gregorius, though not known for his bat, could still be an improvement over the groundball-specialist Jeter.  But, there are questions, mainly injuries.  Beltran, Teixiera, and McCann all suffered from injuries last year, and were rather ineffective when they were playing.  After a year of no baseball, we have no idea what kind of hitting shape A-Rod is in (though this spring has not been awful so far).  Ellsbury and Gregorius suffered minor injuries this spring, though appear to be healthy now.  And Stephen Drew frankly is not very good.  This lineup is very unpredictable, but has the tools in place to score some runs for certain.  If healthy, this is a Bronx Bombers-esque team.

Fielding: B-
Opening Day:
C: McCann
1B: Teixeira
2B: Drew
3B: Headley
SS: Gregorius
LF: Gardner
CF: Ellsbury
RF: Beltran
DH: Rodriguez/Jones
Bench: Chris Young, Brendan Ryan, John Ryan Murphy, Jose Pirela

There is a fairly glaring problem created by the return of Alex Rodriguez.  With two bad hips on a 39-year-old body, a year without baseball, and another 3rd baseman in Headley, Rodriguez is expected to spend most of his time at DH this season. Problem: Beltran and his two bad knees on a 37-year-old body are now forced to be an everyday right fielder.  This is not only a defensive liability, but is also a great plan to get Beltran injured.  Once he gets hurt, there is not a true backup. Garrett Jones is not much of an improvement, and while Chris Young could be, his lack of bat does not make up for it in the lineup. Otherwise, this is not an awful unit.  While Headley and Drew are not great, Teixeira is one of the best fielding first basemen in the game, and Gregorius is a huge upgrade over Jeter, who lacked range in his later years.  Gardner and Ellsbury can easily cover all of the extended left and center fields (and will probably need to cover most of right for Beltran) and are usually Gold Glove caliber fielders who make highlight reel players commonly. McCann is not a great fielder behind the plate, but he is adept at throwing out base stealers and is an excellent game caller.

Manager: A
Joe Girardi

Girardi has never had a losing record in the Bronx, even though the injuries suffered in each of the last two seasons easily warranted it.  He is excellent at resting his players to keep them fresh when needed.  He is also a very good bullpen manager.  Of the 78 losses the Yankees had last season, only 27 were lost by a reliever, about 1/3 of the total.  Girardi knows how to match up against opposing lineups well, and is good at managing innings to keep a pitcher ready for the next game.  With three lefties in his pen and a plethora of long relievers at his disposal, do not expect this to change anytime soon.  Girardi is one of the best.

Overall Prediction: 82-80
I don’t see many of the Yankees staying healthy all season.  If they do, they can contend for the playoffs.  But they are too old and fragile for my liking.  The pitching especially could be troublesome; younger starters from last season like Shane Greene and Vidal Nuno have moved on, leaving open voids should anything happen.  With a fairly weak farm system, the Yankees will struggle to fill the gaps.  This could be a good season, or a disastrous one. We will wait to see the results.

NFL Cornerstones: Cornerback

Chris McGlynn Cornerstones, Football, NFL , , , , ,

Cornerstone players will be a recurring theme on Second Look Sports where I look at each position in a certain sport and I choose a cornerstone player to build my franchise around. I have a couple of parameters for this selection though. I will factor in age, potential, injury history, experience, reputation and production. I think this should be a fun and interesting topic to discuss on here. I hope you all agree.

The selection: Joe Haden, Cleveland Browns
Honorable Mentions: Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson, Chris Harris Jr., Kyle Fuller, Vontae David

Sorry Richard Sherman, you don’t make the cut here. Sherman is a fantastic corner who has a nose for the football and can make some of the most athletic plays by a corner in the last couple of years, but he has some things that hold him back here. First of all, he plays on only one side of the formation. In Seattle’s defense, Sherman does not have to play both sides of the field, which means that he doesn’t always matchup with the best receiver on the field. That drains Sherman of some of his versatility. Don’t get me wrong, Sherman is a fantastic corner, but he is not the guy I want to build around right now.

Instead, I head over to Cleveland, where perennial Pro Bowler Joe Haden plays his football. The 26-year old has good size at 5’11” and excellent awareness on the field. The thing that many will focus on from the very beginning here is the number of interceptions has in his career. Sherman more picks, despite playing one less season. Haden does have a solid 0.22 interception per game ratio, which is on par with both Patrick Peterson and Vontae Davis. However, at corner, it is not always about interceptions. A true lock down corner does not allow his matchup to catch the ball. No one does that quite as well as Haden.

Over the past five seasons, the Browns’ cover man has ranked in the top six for passes defended, with the exception of 2012 where Haden was injured. Haden is also averaging an absurd 17.4 pass break-ups per seasons, despite only playing 11 games in 2012. If we exclude break the number down to knock downs per game, his number of 1.21 ranks better than everyone else considered. In fact, Sherman is the only other corner with an average above one. Haden is test early and often and he clearly holds up well under the constant bombardment.

Haden is a talented tackler as well. He records roughly 4.25 tackles per contest, best of any of the corners considered and the only player with an average over 4. The one knock here is that Haden often get help on his tackles. He has been assisted on roughly 18 percent of his tackles throughout his career, which is essentially identical to Sherman. Meanwhile, Peterson dominants as an open field tackler as he has been assisted on only 9 percent of his takedowns. Haden obviously has a nose for the ball, but he is not the only one in on the play.

What makes Haden the ideal corner is his consistency. He has tallied at least three interceptions per year over the past three seasons. He has registered at least 18 passes defended when he has played at least 15 games. Haden is a force to be reckoned with at the cornerback position. There few players who manage with the same amount of poise and skill at the position. He still has four strong years left of him playing at the highest level. If I needed to pick a corner to build a defense around, Joe Haden is my guy. No other corner gives me the combination of intangibles, talent and versatility that Haden possesses. Without a doubt, he is one of the best corners to take the field in the past 20 years.

How good is Andrew Wiggins?

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA , , ,

People have been talking all season about how good Andrew Wiggins has been in his rookie year. The kid as essentially run away with the NBA Rookie of the Year award. Wiggins has been the bright spot in a dismal season for the Minnesota Timberwolves. The real question is, is Wiggins really a dominant force, or is he just the favorite by default.

This has been a very weak rookie class so far. Only five players are averaging more than ten points per contest this season. Wiggins is the only one average more than 12 with his 16.7 points per game. (Jabari Parker was over 12 a night prior to being injured this season). Wiggins also ranks fifth among qualified rookies in rebounds per game this season. He also sits fifth in terms of steals per contest and sixth in rejections. Wiggins is shaping himself into a very capable all-around player.

One major knock against Wiggins despite all of his talent is his underwhelming assist-to-turnover ratio. He may only be a small forward, but with the amount of time Wiggins spends on the ball, (22.1% usage rating) it would be nice to see Wiggins as a distributor. He is one of only a few players that owns a ratio under 1 sitting at 0.91 assists for every turnover. In fact, he is the only small forward to play 30 minutes or more per game yet still post a ratio under one.

The kid out of Kansas is still young though and has a long time to develop that side of his game. It really should not be much of a concern. The overall athleticism he exudes though is tantalizing for anyone with interest in the Wolves. It might seem harsh to judge the kid on what he has done through just one season but I am curious to see how he stacks up with some of the other top picks in the past several years.

Already, Wiggins is in elite company. Of the top picks since 2008, five out of six have been named All-stars. Those players include Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, John Wall, Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis. The only one yet to live up his billing as the top pick is Wiggins’ teammate, Anthony Bennett. It is not really fair to compare Wiggins to the last small forward drafted first overall either, seeing as that was LeBron James. However, there are a couple of other star small forwards we can compare this budding superstar.

Carmelo Anthony was taken in the same draft as James. His numbers put up against Wiggins’ are superior although not by much. Anthony averaged 21 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal and 0.5 blocks per outing as a rookie playing for the Denver Nuggets. However, he also posted an assist-to-turnover ratio that was under one. Wiggins actually trumps Melo in shooting percentage though with 43.6 compared to 42.3.

Wiggins also stacks up pretty comparably with Kevin Durant’s rookie season. Obviously, the huge discrepancy in height makes this comparison a little tough but Durant averaged 20 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1 steal and 1 block per game. Durant has the edge in the scoring department but once again, Wiggins is shooting at a higher percentage, especially from behind the arc. Durant posted a 28.8 percent success rate from three his rookie year; meanwhile, Wiggins has drained 32.5 percent of his takes. Once again, Durant had an assist-to-turnover ratio below one.

The best comparison for Wiggins though might be to a former Boston legend. Not many others have played better than Paul Pierce over the course of his career. Pierce is also the same style player as Wiggins, switching between a two-guard and a winger. Pierce had a very similar stat line to Wiggins when he first began playing for the Celtics back in 1999. Pierce tallied 16.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.75 steals and 1 block a night, however only in 48 games. Those are not too far off from Wiggins is doing now and Pierce posted an assist-to-turnover ratio of almost exactly one. If this means that Wiggins is destined to average 21, 6 and 4, I think fans in Minnesota will be more than content with that.

While it looks like he is running away with this years’ award, keep in mind that Wiggins still has a lot of growing to do before he can be considered an elite player. However, with him only at 19 and oozing with potential I don’t think the growth will be that hard to come by. Wiggins has the potential to be a perennial All-star in this league and maybe even make Minnesota competitive in a couple of years. With Wiggins at the center of a young core, it seems like the Wolves are off to a good start. His presence certainly makes it easier to forget the absence of certain Love Minnesota used to have.

Fighting to be considered Elite

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NCAAM ,

And then there were 16. Must be pretty sweet to still be dancing at this point in the tournament. Each region has it’s own story. The Midwest is still Kentucky’s to lose but apparently West Virginia (who busted my bracket last week) believe that Kentucky’s perfection ends tonight when the two teams take the court. Witchita State is still alive and kicking as well. In the East, the top seeds have fallen and the remaining matchups read eight versus four and three versus seven. Upsets have riddled this side of the bracket as Virginia and Villanova fell last weekend. Out West, the bracket has avoided too many upsets, as Baylor is the sole top-four seed not to reach the Sweet 16, only to be replaced by sixth-seeded Xavier. Down South, old school powers meeting the new kids on the block. UCLA is the surprise in the regional semi-final as an eleven seed in this one. All of these storylines mean we are in for a great four days of basketball.

Midwest

#1 Kentucky vs. #5 West Virginia: West Virginia freshman Daxter Miles Jr. made it clear that he does not think much of Kentucky. He called them out for not playing hard. That sounds like something you should do after you have beaten them if you ask me. Kentucky will come into this game with even more of something to prove now than ever before. The Wildcats rank third in the country in defensive scoring and second in blocks. That will spell trouble for a Mountaineer team that already does not shoot the ball very well from the field.

#3 Notre Dame vs. #7 Witchita State: Many said that the Shockers would be a tough matchup for Kansas and that proved to be true as Witchita rolled through the Jayhawks. However, I think the run stops here for the Shockers. They will have their eyes set on a rematch with Kentucky after the Wildcats knocked them out of the tournament last year and ended their perfect season. I don’t think Witchita gets the chance though. The Irish are battled tested with victories in a couple of close games. Notre Dame has only dropped one game in past eleven, I think they will move on to the Elite Eight.

West

#1 Wisconsin vs. #4 North Carolina: This is a tough one to call. UNC has the talent and ability to beat anyone in the country, and I mean anyone, when they are firing on all cylinders. However, they aren’t playing at their best very often. This Tar Heel squad is often streaky and they are facing one of the most consistently dominant teams in America tonight. The Heels rank second in the country for rebounds and assists per game this year though. That is a pretty tough combination to top. If Marcus Paige is on, UNC marches on to the next round.

#2 Arizona vs. #6 Xavier: The Musketeers were fortunate to have made it this far if you ask me. With games against Ole Miss and Georgia State, Xavier has yet to play a team that is not a double-digit seed. That said, they might stand a chance in the Sweet 16, if they were playing a team other than Arizona. The Wildcats have won by fewer than 10 points just once since playing Utah back in February. That one game? It was against UCLA, another Sweet 16 team. Arizona advance.

East

#4 Louisville vs. #8 North Carolina State: Raise your hand if you picked this game to happen. I wish I could say I did. NC State really busted my bracket last week when they knocked out Villanova, whom I had in the finals. As if this game was not important enough, this is rematch between ACC teams. The Wolfpack won the first time around but with Louisville finally starting to find a bit of a rhythm offensively, the Cardinals will be the ones who get to keep dancing a little longer.

#3 Oklahoma vs. #7 Michigan State: I didn’t predict this game correctly either. I had Dayton pulling the upset of Oklahoma but the Sooners ruined my fun. However, the Spartans looked convincing in their last two wins, especially Sunday against Virginia. Travis Trice caught fire against the Cavaliers, and if he does again on Friday, that could mean lights out for Oklahoma. I’ve got Tom Izzo’s crew heading to the next round.

South

#1 Duke vs. #5 Utah: This one will be fun to watch. We get to see Jahlil Okafor and the highlight reel that is Duke’s offense pitted against a Utah squad that excels in locking down the defensive end of the floor. The Utes ranked eleventh in the country this season in points allowed per game. Moreover, Utah has seven-footer Jakob Poeltl to contend with Okafor. Watch these two freshmen battle it out in the paint should be an entertaining matchup. I still think Duke has too many offensive weapons for Utah to contain. Blue Devils slide into the Elite Eight.

#2 Gonzaga vs. #11 California Los Angeles: Talk about a surprise guest. There were not too many people who foresaw UCLA in the Sweet 16. The Bruins were a bubble team to begin with. Gonzaga has been good this season but this has every element of a trap game to it. I think the Bruins will come out with a chip on their shoulder and give the Zags a tough test early. If Gonzaga can weather that test than they will be fine. If they falter early, like I think they will, UCLA will continue their Cinderella run.

Rivers leaving SoCal?

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NFL , , , , ,

The rumors continue to swirl about various NFL franchises making the move to Los Angeles. It likely will not be for a couple of years now that a team actually makes the transition. However, the teams most frequently involved in talks of a move to Southern California are the Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams and oddly the San Diego Chargers. The last one is a real head-scratcher. The Chargers had an average attendance last season of 65,530 per game last season on average. The maximum capacity of their stadium is only 70,561. The fan base is available for the Chargers in San Diego but that doesn’t seem to be enough. It might be soon enough though if the team is serious about keeping its best player.

Since 2006, Philip Rivers has been the starting quarterback in San Diego. As the starter, he has led the Chargers to five postseason appearances and really been the focal point since LaDainian Tomlinson left for New York. He has been named to the Pro Bowl on five separate occasions. Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now and while he might not be the best in the business. He is a well above average starter. However, with all the rumors circulating that the team might be moving, Rivers has made it clear that he does not want to resign with the Chargers. His contract is set to expire after this season so that makes this a very time sensitive issue.

The potential solution rumored to swirling around the winds of NFL news is to trade Rivers away to a quarterback needy team to cash in on a top draft pick. The Chargers hold the 17th pick in this year’s draft but with many teams in the top five wanting a bonafide franchise signal caller, there is a market for Rivers. The issue is that whatever compensation San Diego might get will likely not be enough to really offset the loss of Rivers. If the team traded away the five-time Pro Bowler, they would likely be looking to land Marcus Mariota from Oregon as his replacement.

However, as it has been well-documented, Mariota likely will not be a Day 1 starter. He will need a year to work out the final kinks in his game before taking over as the starter. The Chargers would more or less be pushing back any chances of competing in the playoffs for about two years, at least, with Mariota at the helm. The reality is that this team needs to run the risk of Rivers leaving. There is no guarantee that the organization moves out to LA and even if they did you can hope that maybe Rivers will change his mind.

Sure it would be nice to get a security policy in case Rivers does leave but the smarter way for San Diego to do that would be to draft a quarterback in the second or third round that has the potential to replace Rivers in 2016 if he does leave. With Brent Hundley, Byrce Petty and Garrett Grayson all expect to go in one of those following two rounds, the Chargers could find a talented, quarterback with a lot of potential. It would be an ideal situation where you let him learn from the veteran Rivers for a season before letting him take the reins the following year.

My final evaluation, keep the sure thing rather than gamble your future on something that may or may not happen. Rivers is on the cusp of very good and elite. He is not someone you can simply replace. Only netting the second, or potentially later, pick in the draft should not be enough to tip the Chargers’ hand. Selecting Hundley or one of those other players in a later round is a much safer plan and it allows you to cover your bases, as the Chargers clearly want to. Word I am hearing is that the San Diego organization is looking to just ride this year out and wait to see what happens with both relocation and Rivers’ contract. My opinion: keep number 17 in Charger powder blue. He gives them the best chance to win, and after narrowly missing the playoffs last year, the Chargers could be poised to make a postseason run. Under a rookie quarterback, none of that is possible.