Basketball

Lance’s landing spots

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA , ,

Lance Stephenson has not fit in too well with Charlotte. I wrote back in June that I thought this would be a good fit for the ex-Pacers guard but clearly, that hasn’t been the case as the front office is rumored to be looking to move him via trade. Today marks the first day that Stephenson can be traded because of an NBA rule regarding players who sign contracts in free agency. So now that he can be moved, it’s time to take a second look.

Believe it or not, Stephenson is actually having a career year for himself so far. He scoring 10.4 points per game and average 5 assists and 7.2 rebounds a game. All of those would be career bests. The issue is he has shot an abysmal 39% from the floor and hit only 16.7% of his three point attempts. Needless to say, he has not been an effective shooter and that is more of what Charlotte was looking for to pair with his great on ball defense. Here are the teams that I think could be interested in acquiring Stephenson.

The obvious on would be the Indiana Pacers. This is the team Stephenson walked away from in free agency because he did not get opportunities he wanted offensively. The Pacers have been decimated by injuries this year, particularly in the backcourt. Having Stephenson back could be a major boost to the team’s guard play for sure and might break Stephenson from his shooting woes. The Pacers would likely have to give up a couple of players the most likely players would be CJ Miles, Chris Copeland and maybe a future second round draft pick in exchange for the out-of-favor Stephenson. That would prevent the Pacers from giving up too much allowing them to still compete in the East and would give Charlotte a couple of talented players to work into its rotation.

Another team with plenty of guard injuries is the Minnesota Timberwolves. They struggled all year to stay healthy and have been one of the worst defensive teams in basketball this year ranking second to last in the league for points allowed per game. Stephenson would provide a much need defensive presence for a young Wolves team. He would also provide some veteran leadership on a team with rookies Andrew Wiggins and Zach Lavine and second-year players Anthony Bennett and Shabazz Muhammad. In return, Charlotte could likely receive Chase Budinger and Corey Brewer. Both players have been rumored to be pieces Minnesota would like to move and could fill in as productive role players for the Hornets.

The last team is a bit of a wild card but apparently, the Brooklyn Nets are contemplating a fire sale. They would be looking move practically all of their star players. This could be the opportunity for Charlotte to snag a top player in a deal to get rid of Stephenson. The Hornets could land Kevin Garnett potentially along with a young guard in Sergey Karasev while shipping Stephenson, Cody Zeller and PJ Hariston to Brooklyn. This would give Charlotte better option at power forward creating a formidable frontcourt with Al Jefferson. It also allows the Nets to experiment with some young players.

The most likely scenario is Stephenson goes back to Indiana. I have no doubt though that Stephenson will be moved sooner rather than later. The NBA’s Eastern conference is wide open right now and if you can avoid matching up with either Chicago or Cleveland in the first round, you have a chance to run the table and win a playoff series. I think Charlotte, right now, is still thinking about competing. The Hornets made the playoffs last year and gave the Heat a run for its money in a couple of games in that series. We will see what Michael Jordan decides to do.

What does the Alex Poythress injury mean for Kentucky?

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NCAAM

Thursday brought some terrible news to the number one ranked Wildcats. The team learned that junior forward Alex Poythress was lost for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Poythress sustained the injury without contact in practice on Thursday will shooting a lay-up. It will go down as a freak injury for Kentucky’s oldest starter. The question is can Kentucky shake off this injury and continue to play as the best team in the nation?

It will be a tough task but my initial thought is no. Poythress was a valuable cog in the system John Calipari runs which features two different lines of players that Coach Cal rotates in throughout the game. The two usually get mostly equal playing time. So when looking at Poythress’ numbers, it doesn’t look like Kentucky is missing much with him gone. The forward was only averaging 5.5 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. When you factor in that he was only playing about half of every game, those numbers start to count a bit more. That becomes a chunk of that platoon’s effectiveness. This blow to the starting line hurts more than the numbers will show.

So that would be that, except then you look at Kentucky’s remaining schedule. The Wildcats only have two games remaining against ranked opponents. Coach Cal’s squad plays a UNC team on Saturday that has been struggling recently to score points. Kentucky has one of the nation’s best defenses and has routinely blown out opponents who cannot find a way to keep pace. The country’s top team then will travel to fourth-ranked Louisville for the battle of Kentucky in late December. That could be the only game Kentucky loses all year in the regular season. After that, they begin SEC play and the SEC does not have a single ranked team outside of the Wildcats. The only other difficult games on this schedule would be in a week against a high-scoring UCLA team or in early February when Kentucky travels to Gainesville to take on Florida. The Gators have lost a couple of close games early in the year but will be tough to beat on its home court.

Looking at this, the loss of Poythress definitely hurts the Wildcats but I still think college basketball’s deepest team will be a top-four team come Selection Sunday in March, earning a number one seed in the NCAA tournament. I think this team is still the safest bet to make the Final Four. I don’t know if Kentucky is all but a lock to win a National Championship anymore. The games coming up in the next two weeks will let us know how well Kentucky can adjust to not having Poythress. I think this team has enough talent to make up for it. Now we just have to wait and see.

Athletes recognizing social issues

Chris McGlynn Basketball, Football, NBA, NFL, Social Issues , ,

Athletes have always been among the most polarizing people on Earth. They have the mostly unwavering attention of the media. Many of them are known in all corners of the world. These past few days, those same athletes, mainly of the NBA and NFL have been testing how influential they can be when stepping outside of the world of sports.

One week ago, a grand jury decided not to indict a police officer for the strangulation of a unarmed black man by the name of Eric Garner. The outrage following the decision has been seen nationwide already before a handful of players took it to the next level. A handful of players from both the NFL and the NBA wore shirts with the words “I Can’t Breathe” emblazoned on them as a response. It started with Derrick Rose this past Saturday night in Chicago, then continued with Reggie Bush Sunday in Detroit even made it to the West Coast with Kobe Bryant and his Lakers teammates donning shirts on Tuesday. The most notable gesture came Monday night in Brooklyn, not far where Garner’s murder took place, when the world’s most polarizing athlete LeBron James walked onto the court sporting an “I Can’t Breathe” shirt. ESPN had a field day with the story (as they do with just about anything James does). LeBron handled every question asked with a level head that displayed his social awareness and his desire to support Garner’s family in this difficult time.

This comes on the heels of a much more controversial sports protest against a major social issue. On November 30, five members came out of the tunnel before a home game with their hands held up in surrender, clearly in reference to the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri. The act sparked controversy with the St. Louis Police Department and they immediately demanded an apology. To the credit of both the league and the Rams organization, they refused to issue an apology or punish the players in any way. I tend to be very critical of the NFL but I am genuinely proud of the league’s decision to let these players speak their mind without any repercussions.

These also are not just uninformed athletes deciding to get involved. Rose pointed out that some of these athletes can relate to these issues. In an article from Bleacher Report, the Bulls’ guard stated, “I grew up and I saw it every day,” Rose said. “Not killing or anything like that, but I saw the violence every day. Just seeing what can happen. If anything, I’m just trying to change the kids’ minds across the nation and it starts here.”  I am glad that these athletes are taking the time to speak their minds and open up about the world around them. It is rare that we see this side of them because of how genuinely obsessed our nation is with their performance on the court or field.

It may not be much, but it is a start. It presents an uncommon source of spreading social awareness. You do not have to agree with all the statements these athletes are making to recognize the importance of what they are doing. This affects everyone. LeBron said it himself in an interview with ESPN, “It’s not a [Cavaliers] thing; it’s a worldly thing…. As a society we have to do better, we have to be better for one another, no matter what race you are.” That speaks volumes to me about what this means to athletes. Hopefully, we will continue to see more athletes speaking their mind about pressing social issues. Too often, they are relegated to an observer in these cases because of the role they play in representing an organization. I still have hope that this could lead to a positive change as well, but only time with tell.

Who means more: The Big Three or Kawhi?

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA , , , ,

It’s not often the reigning NBA champion Spurs make headlines for anything other than winning. Especially not for something said by Head Coach Gregg Popovich. Yet it happened. Popovich was quoted this past week talking about his young forward Kawhi Leonard and it was some high praise. According to cbssports.com, Popovich told Leonard, “To heck with those guys. The Big Three, they’re older than dirt. To hell with them. You’re the Big One. You’ve got to go do your deal.”

All this praise for the 2014 NBA Finals MVP begs an obvious question: is Pop right? Does Leonard really mean more than Manu Ginobli, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker? Popovich has been calling this kid the new face of the franchise since drafting him in 2012.

I decided to break it down a little bit. I wanted to see if there was a way I could find a way to place a value on Leonard, even if just in comparison to his teammates. So let’s take a look at everything we can find.

The basic stats won’t cut it, but they are helpful so we will start there. Leonard is second on the Spurs in points per game (14.9) this season behind Parker (16.2) and ahead of Duncan (14.0). He also ranks second in rebounding nightly (8.0) behind Duncan (10.4) and Leonard leads the team in steals per game (1.88). Leonard is also second among starters in terms of player efficiency rating with an 18.7 behind Duncan, who has a 21.4. Clearly, Leonard can pull his own weight as he is contributing across the board. He is also a solid shooter, hitting 45.6% of his shots and is third on the team in 3-point shots made, behind Danny Green and Ginobli. Looking at it this way, Leonard seems more to me as a part of a Big 4 potentially, rather than a Big One just yet. Nevertheless, we need to search a little deeper.

Some adjusted statistics tell the story a little better especially when you look at the Big 3’s and Leonard’s averages per 36 minutes of play. Leonard is scoring at the same rate as Duncan (16.7) and behind both Ginobli (18.0) and Parker (18.7). The rebounding gap between Duncan and Leonard also widens a bit with them averaging 12.3 and 9.0 respectively. Once again, this seems like Leonard is just a part of the Big 4.

The advanced statistics are fun to examine as well as they show Leonard be an important cog in the team, but not the important one. Leonard has snagged 14% of possible rebounds while he has been on the floor this season. That is a solid mark but that only ranks 4th on the team (among players of have played at least 100 minutes) Duncan is 19.3% of the rebounds when he is on the floor. He does come up with a steal on 3% of all opponents possessions, which ranks ninth in the league. Leonard additionally has the lowest usage percentage out of the Big 4 (I am just calling them that now).

Leonard is tied for the team lead of Win Shares with Green and Duncan. The third year pro also has the second highest wins over replacement value behind Green but ahead of the rest of the Big 4. The gap though is only a meager 0.2 between him and Tim Duncan (3.5 and 3.3). For a reference point, Stephen Curry leads the league this season with a value of 8.0. That is not enough to give Leonard an edge for the title of “The Big 1.”

This does not mean by any stretch that I doubt that the former San Diego State product can’t eventually become the best player on a very talented Spurs team but for now, I am sticking with Leonard being a part of the Big 4. Kawhi Leonard is a very good player, don’t get me wrong. But I don’t think he is as good as his coach wants him to think he is quite yet. Only time can tell. Let me know what you think.

Landing spots for top NBA free agents

Chris McGlynn Basketball, Draft, NBA

With the NBA draft happening tomorrow night plenty of attention is being directed to who will be picked, and rightfully so. However, the draft, more often than not, is completely hit or miss. Don’t believe me? Take a look at 2007. The first two picks were Kevin Durant and Greg Oden. Both are immensely talented players, more so Durant than Oden, but they were both regarded as excellent picks that could make an impact and likely become all-star caliber players. Durant did, but Oden could never shake the injury bug and because of that, he has had a largely unsuccessful career. Oden ultimately wound up as a reserve player with Miami this year and saw very little court time.

So, that little tangent leads us to where my focus is instead: the proven performers at the NBA level. The 2014 Free Agents. This is quite the class this year with some massive names potentially hitting the open market including Carmelo Anthony, Lance Stephenson, Dirk Nowitzki, Pau Gasol and, the biggest name by far, LeBron James. With another year of big names looking to switch teams, this year’s free agent pool will be fun to watch. I am going to address some of the free agents who will be moving this year.

Carmelo Anthony- Not that he could never resign with the Knicks but I think it is unlikely. Melo really wants a ring and will find a contender. He will probably stay in the East just based on how tough the West is historically. Sorry Lakers fans. I think the most likely landing spot would be Chicago. This is a team that is in desperate need of more scoring and the rest of the team plays defense so well that they could make up for Anthony’s lack of skill on that end of the floor. I think having an established coach in Tom Thibodeau and the potential to play with superstars in Derrick Rose (assuming he is healthy) and Joakim Noah. A wildcard to sign Melo would probably be the Charlotte Hornets. The combination of Al Jefferson, Kemba Walker and Melo could be enough to propel this team much further into the playoffs. Maybe he could team up with a big name big man (Zach Randolph) and head there for a shot at a title. Could Michael Jordan pull together a championship team? We will see.

Luol Deng- There is no way he goes back to Cleveland. None. He didn’t fit there and he will be moving on. Where to will be interesting.  I think Deng will end up in Houston or Memphis (if Zach Randolph leaves). Now Deng is clearly not as sexy for Houston as LeBron but he could be a solid starter pairing up with Dwight Howard and giving the Rockets a much needed defensive presence. Memphis seems like a logic fit just because of the nature of play. They run a lot through their big man Marc Gasol and always love to out rebound and out defend their opposition. Deng could gel nicely with Gasol. The wildcard for Deng: he returns to Chicago. I know the team dealt him last year but he is a talented player that fit into the system and allow Chicago to continue to defend the hell out of opponents. It is unlikely but it is a possibility. Lance Stephenson- This might come as a surprise but I think Stephenson will walk away from the Pacers. He fits the system but I think it is clear he wants a bigger role elsewhere. I honestly think he could end up in Charlotte. That would be quite the off-season for MJ if he got Stephenson to pair with Melo and add to the combo of Walker and Jefferson. I think Stephenson would be allowed to operate as a playmaker with the Hornets. It seemed like he wanted to do that in Indiana but simply wasn’t given the opportunity. He also fits the playing style of the Chicago Bulls but I think Charlotte has a better chance of landing him. A dark horse team to sign Stephenson could be the Minnesota Timberwolves. They need an upgrade at shooting guard and they definitely need some help on defense. Money should not be an issue with Kevin Love likely coming off the books. It isn’t being talked about, but I see that as being a logical move.

LeBron James- I saved King James for last because he would be the hardest to pin down. I think he could return to South Beach but more likely, he will return to his birthplace of Ohio. For as sour Cavs fans have been since he spurned them four years ago, they would welcome their prodigal son home with open arms. With Deng likely leaving, the Cavs would have a hole at power forward. Who better to fill it with than the best player in the world? All 30 NBA teams will be in the mix for signing the superstar do-it-all James but a team that I think could jump in without being perceived favorites could be the Boston Celtics. LeBron will be looking to stay in the Eastern Conference and if he and Melo have any real desire to play together, Boston could be the place to do it. They have a young, up and coming coach in Brad Stevens and LeBron and Melo could team up with Rajon Rondo to form the new Big Three in the NBA. Boston is also looking to land a star to please Rondo. Why not land the two biggest stars in the market?

All of this madness will begin in the days following the end of June as free agency opens. Let me know what projections you agree with and which ones I got completely wrong.