Football

How the Raiders can replace Derek Carr and where Carr could land in 2023

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , , , , , , , ,
Carr’s completion percentage dipped to 60.8 percent this year, down from 68.4 percent a year ago. (Wikimedia Commons)

The Raiders are not officially eliminated from playoff contention, but they are already preparing for 2023. To be fair, their playoff odds are long, needing wins over the 49ers and Chiefs to close the season along with a litany of other results to go their way. However, Las Vegas essentially waved the white flag on Wednesday, announcing that Jarrett Stidham will start the final two regular season games with Chase Garbers set to be his backup. This means Derek Carr’s season is done and along with it, potentially his career with the Raiders.

How did we get to this point? Well, it started with the contract extension Carr signed last offseason. It looked as though the Raiders had locked up their franchise quarterback for years to come. Instead, it was actually a one-year pact with the framework to keep him in house if the team desired. Carr can be released or traded this offseason for a dead cap hit of just $5.625 million while saving Las Vegas $29.25 million in cap space.

The door was cracked open to Carr’s exit this offseason at that point. It was blown wide open as the year rolled on and the Raiders continued to struggle. The team that thrived in close games a year ago suddenly could not close out contests. A pair of losses would send the Raiders to 6-11 on the season, nowhere near the lofty expectations that were set after acquiring Devante Adams this offseason.

So what’s next for Carr? It seems like he will be searching for a new team this offseason. He won’t be shopping long. There are so many QB needy teams in the league right now, he will have his fair share of suitors. Before we get to where he might land, we need to figure out what the Raiders’ plan might be.

There certainly seems to be a shortage of quality NFL quarterbacks at the moment. There are something like a dozen teams who could be in the market for a new signal caller this offseason. It is a bit surprising to see the Raiders opt to get into the mix despite having at least an average starting option. It begs the question: how can they upgrade at the position? Is it even possible to upgrade this offseason?

Brady reportedly nearly joined the Raiders in 2020 before signing with the Buccaneers. (Wikimedia Commons)

Well, let’s look at some veteran options first. The first name that comes to mind is Tom Brady. Yes, the GOAT could very well leave Tampa Bay this offseason and head for a new team with a familiar face. He and Raiders coach Josh McDaniels worked together for a long time in New England, so this seems like a logical reunion. Las Vegas would unquestionably need to upgrade his protection either through the draft or in free agency. However, I imagine the prospect of throwing to Adams, Hunter Renfroe and Darren Waller would be an appealing one.

Otherwise, Jimmy Garoppolo feels like the only other seasoned signal caller that would be a viable option. He, like Brady, has history with McDaniels and will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Outside of Garoppolo, there aren’t too many realistic targets. I don’t expect Lamar Jackson to leave the Ravens. Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater don’t feel like upgrades. Perhaps the Raiders would hope to ride the Geno Smith wave, but that also feels unlikely.

If not a veteran, the draft is always an option. The Raiders are on track to land a top-10 pick in the draft. However, they find themselves behind as many as six different teams that could draft a quarterback this year. The Texans, Seahawks, Colts, Falcons, Lions and Panthers will all at least consider selecting a rookie QB. Some of that could be impacted by the offseason carousel, but I doubt that all six of those clubs will pass on a quarterback. At best, the Raiders would likely be taking the third or fourth choice passer from this class. Sometimes, that works out really well. Just ask the Bills. However, taking that would be a bold risk to take.

While the Raiders work on finding his replacement, Carr will be looking to refresh his career. Let’s take a look at where he might land.

Indianapolis Colts
Indy has been searching for a long-term solution at quarterback since Andrew Luck retired. After one-year rentals of Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan, Carr could end the search, at least for a few years. Calling Carr a bridge quarterback feels disrespectful given his success in the league and the fact he is only 31 years old. He would likely offer a lot more stability at the position than the Colts have had in years. If Indianapolis is able to land one of its top targets on the draft board, it currently holds the 5th overall pick, this likely won’t make sense, but if they want a veteran option to compete a bit faster and use that premium pick to bolster the roster elsewhere, Carr would be a logical choice.

New York Jets
Zach Wilson does not feel long for New York and Mike White has yet to really earn enough trust to be considered a long-term solution. Jimmy Garoppolo has been heavily linked to Gang Green given his connection to Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur, but Carr could be another viable option for a team that feels like it is a quarterback away from at least being in the Super Bowl conversation. Joe Douglas will need to revamp the offensive line in order for Carr to succeed, but that is likely true of any quarterback New York brings in.

New Orleans Saints
This probably would not be a huge upgrade over the contingent of Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston, but progress is progress. New Orleans’ cap situation seems horrible, but they find ways to get around that pretty much annually. With a number of talented players already on the roster (think Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Tyrann Mathieu, Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis, etc.), finding some stability at quarterback could go a long way to getting the Saints back on track in a weak division. New Orleans is technically still in the playoff hunt right now despite a 6-9 record. Without a first-round pick, there aren’t a ton of other options, so Carr could be a target.

Washington Commanders
This feels like a sneaky good option for Carr. Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson would give him a solid supporting cast. This team has a good defense and could use a boost at quarterback. Carson Wentz is very expendable and would actually save the Commanders roughly $26.2 million in cap space with zero dead cap. I don’t know if this move would make Washington a real contender, but if this team can compete for a playoff spot with below average quarterback play, even getting average quarterback play could go a long way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I did say that Brady’s exit from Tampa Bay felt likely, didn’t I? Maybe, he and Carr could just trade places. The Buccaneers do not have a true succession plan on the roster right now and with them in line to win the NFC South, it is unlikely they will be in position to draft a quarterback in the first round. Carr could help this team stay in contention in the division. A healthy offensive line plus receivers like Chris Godwin and Mike Evans could lead to a very successful offense. Carr is still young enough to be considered the present and the short-term future at the position.

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Draft Season Never Ends: Will Anderson Jr. vs. Jalen Carter

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Who should you choose: the elite edge rusher from Alabama or the game-wrecking defensive tackle from Georgia? Chris does his best to break them both down and explain which one he would pick.

You can find every episode on Anchor, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube or wherever you find your podcasts. As always, I appreciate reviews, feedback and when you hit that subscribe button.

Tyree Wilson 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report

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Name: Tyree Wilson
Position: Edge rusher
School: Texas Tech
Height: 6’6″
Weight: 275 lbs
Games watched: vs. NC State (2022), vs. Baylor (2022), vs. Kansas State (2022), vs. Texas (2022), vs. Mississippi State (’21 Liberty Bowl), vs. Oklahoma (2021)

I had not watched much of Texas Tech this year for one reason or another. Tyree Wilson’s name was one that I heard a lot and saw popping in mock drafts. I assumed he was going to be some twitchy edge rusher with gobs of untapped potential. I was very wrong. Put on the tape and you will see a polished run defender with great power and very solid production. Wilson posted 7 sacks in each of the past two seasons along with 27.5 tackles for loss combined.

That production earned him 1st team All-Big 12 and 2nd team AP All-American honors this season and a spot at the 2023 Senior Bowl, where he figures to be one of the top prospects participating. His imposing 6’6″ frame with long arms and good football IQ will definitely draw the attention of NFL scouts. The Texas A&M transfer made the most of his time at Lubbock and has turned a lot of heads with his play.

Pros

Wilson is an incredibly powerful defender. He has an excellent bull rush that collapses the pocket and allows him to be very active against the run. His eye discipline is impressive. You will rarely see Wilson get fooled when put into conflict. He routinely reads his keys and handles his assignment. His length is apparent and can bother opposing linemen when they try to stymie his pass rush moves. Those long arms allow him to make contact with quarterbacks while rushing, disrupting plays even if he can’t get home. Texas Tech moved Wilson all over the defensive line and he made his mark no matter where he was lined up. I think he would be capable of playing anywhere from a 3-4 outside linebacker to a 4-3 defensive tackle. I like him best as a 5-tech end in four man fronts, but he has versatility.

Cons

Most of Wilson’s game is predicated on being stronger and longer than his opponents. He has decent wiggle and burst, but it is far from elite. In watching his film, you rarely see him bend and turn the corner as a pass rusher. His impact is primarily felt overpowering linemen rather than overwhelming them with speed and agility. Wilson is a solid tackler, but is guilty of failing to wrap up on occasion. His change of direction ability leaves a bit to be desired. Wilson should not be used in coverage either.

Synopsis

I don’t know if Wilson will ever become a dominant pass rusher at the next level. He lacks the elite burst and speed to consistently get home against NFL talent. However, his length, power and awareness make him an excellent run defender who can still bring value on passing downs.

Ideal scheme fit: 5-technique defensive end

Grade: 89

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Jalen Carter 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report

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Name: Jalen Carter
Position: Defensive lineman
School: Georgia
Height: 6’3″
Weight: 300 lbs
Games watched: vs. Kentucky (2021), vs. Clemson (2021), vs. Oregon (2022), vs. Tennessee (2022), vs. Alabama (SEC Championship ’21), vs. LSU (SEC Championship ’22)

If you want just a quick snapshot on just how good Jalen Carter really is, he might be the best player from the 2021 Georgia defense. That defense included Travon Walker, Devonte Wyatt, Jordan Davis, Nolan Smith, Nakobe Dean, Lewis Cine, Channing Tindall and Quay Walker, among others. He was 2nd team All-SEC despite only playing in a rotational role. Carter got the chance to truly shine in his junior season, wrecking opposing game plans and terrorizing quarterbacks all season long.

His 2022 numbers are far from eye-popping, with three sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss and a pair of forced fumbles, but if you put on his tape, you will be blown away by his speed, ferocity and athleticism. His efforts did not go unnoticed either, netting him AP 1st team All-American and 1st team All-SEC honors. He dominated the trenches and has the potential to be an All-Pro level player at the next level.

Pros

Carter has an incredible get off for a player his size. He throws his weight around well and his play strength is astounding. He routinely knocked opposing linemen on their backside in both run and pass sets. He has a fantastic rip move to disengage from blockers, allowing him to penetrate the backfield quickly. Carter will be very effective in pass rush stunts at the next level as well with his ability to eat up double teams and draw additional attention. He can line up pretty much anywhere along the defensive line, with Georgia deploying him as a nose tackle and a standup edge rusher in the same game. If Carter does not get home, he has a knack for getting his hands into passing lanes to disrupt throws.

Cons

There are a handful of weak points in Carter’s game, but they are few and far between. He has a tendency to lose his balance as a pass rusher, ending up knocked way off his line or on the ground from time to time. It almost seems to be a byproduct of how fast he plays. There is the occasional snap where he gets moved off the ball in the run game. As I noted before, his production leaves a little bit to be desired as well, posting just six sacks over the past two seasons. I’ve seen some recent reports that Carter has some character issues. I’m not privy to that type of information at all, but it is something worth noting as we move through the pre draft process.

Synopsis

Carter is a menace and the highest graded player I have so far in this draft class. He is a three-down option with plenty of stamina to stay on the field all three plays. He competed against the best of the best in the SEC and should be a force in the NFL. Look for him to have a Quinnen Williams or Chris Jones type impact on a defense.

Ideal scheme fit: 1-technique defensive tackle

Grade: 95.5

NFL Draft Daily: How the transfer portal could help NFL draft scouting

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NFL Draft Daily looks at top stories, historical trends, player performances and more all through the lens of the NFL Draft. After all, there are only 129 until the 2023 NFL Draft.

Entering the transfer portal is the thing to do these days in college football. Over 1,600 players had entered the portal as of this past Thursday. That staggering number could climb even higher as bowl games wrap up over the next month. The portal will not close until January 18.

What this means is that upwards of one thousand college football players will be looking for new homes, stepping into new programs, learning new systems and working with new coaches. If that sounds anything like NFL free agency, that is essentially because it is. Players are allowed to pick new schools if they are unhappy (maybe they want more NIL money). However, the programs need to be interested as well. It’s basically college free agency.

USC Head Coach Lincoln Riley quickly rebuilt his program through the transfer portal in his first season. (Wikimedia Commons)

It sounds great in theory, but there are plenty of cautionary tales for why the transfer portal does not always work out how players want. Not every player who enters the portal is going to land with a Power 5 program. There are going to be tons of players disappointed by the options they have available to them.

However, there could be a huge benefit down the line for NFL teams with players switching schools. For evaluators, it is an opportunity to see prospects in different systems, which helps answer questions about scheme fit at the next level. For example, if you have a corner that plays in a mostly man-to-man defense before transferring to a school whose defensive coordinator favors zone concepts, you now have way more information on that player than you would have had they stayed at the first school. You can evaluate how they fare in both schemes and better identify both strengths and weaknesses in their game.

There is also something to be said for small school or even non D-1 school players getting the chance to prove themselves against better competition. Jared Verse is the perfect example. Verse dominated at the University of Albany, which competes at the FCS level. We’ve seen several FCS stars in recent years work their way through the draft ranks and wind up as early draft picks, such as Trey Lance, Trevor Penning and Jeremy Chinn.

Unfortunately, those players are often few and far between, facing questions about the level of competition and their ability to make the jump to the NFL level. Verse erased any of those concerns after transferring to Florida State in 2022. He dominated the ACC, racking up 7.5 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss. Under the previous system, we likely would have seen Verse transfer and sit out a year, or wait until he completed his degree before moving as a graduate transfer. Instead, Verse is getting genuine first-round draft buzz for 2023. There will likely be several more to join the ranks of the FCS to FBS to NFL draft pipeline. Washington State’s Cam Ward (formerly at Incarnate Word) and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders (previously with Jackson State) figure to be two high-profile quarterback recruits in 2024 who began their collegiate career playing in the FCS.

Even for players who started out at the FBS level, the portal offers a second chance and a chance to rebuid their draft stock. I wrote about how D.J. Uiagalelei needs to go through that process right now, and how he could follow in the footsteps of Bo Nix (who announced he is returning for another year at Oregon) and Spencer Rattler. Nix in particular is a great example of a player who struggled to find his footing at his first school before really turning it around during his second stop.

Daniels is back in the transfer portal after one season with West Virginia. (TigerNet.com)

On the flip side, the portal helps weed out players who maybe don’t quite make the cut that might have previously been drafted based on potential because coaches believed they could “fix” the player. Former highly-touted quarterbacks like Kedon Slovis and J.T. Daniels stand out here. Both arrived in college football with a ton of fanfare and showed flashes at USC. However, neither managed to prove that the Trojans and the former coaching staff were really the problem, struggling with injuries and consistency in subsequent stops. Daniels is now searching for his fourth college team. Slovis is seeking his third. Neither seems to have legitimate draft hopes at this point due in large part because there is no mystery left surrounding them. No coach can look and believe that he has the perfect system to unlock either of these players after seeing both struggle to take hold in multiple schemes at this point. Hopes of a change of scenery will only get you so far.

For as flawed and maligned as the transfer portal might be at this stage, there could be a ton of good that comes out of it when it comes to evaluating players. Scouting is all about gathering information on prospects, and the more you have, the more likely you are to get the evaluation right. It will never be an exact science, but there is a chance we start to see fewer players fall through the cracks and more players given a second chance because they were able to turn things around at a different school. College football is a rapidly changing landscape, and I think there is plenty to be excited about.

Follow the Aftermath via email to get every article delivered right to your inbox. Enter your email in the text box to subscribe. You can also follow us on Facebook and Twitter. You can also check out our podcast Draft Season Never Ends, available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube.