Football

Blessing in disguise

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , ,

As a fan, you never hope to see a player injured. Well at least you shouldn’t. However, Jets fans probably feel a slight sigh of relief knowing that they do not have to watch Geno Smith under center again for the next 6-10 weeks. On the surface, this seems like a real issue for the Jets. But when you dig a little deeper, things start to look pretty good actually.

Geno Smith
Smith’s injury require surgery and he will miss the rest of the preseason, along with anywhere from 2-6 weeks of the regular season.

Smith is out those 6-10 weeks due to a broken jaw he sustained when he was “sucker-punched” in the locker room by a teammate. That sounds like a discipline problem that would be rampant under Rex Ryan. However, Todd Bowles already took care of the issue by swiftly cutting IK Enemkpali, a 2014 sixth round draft pick, who wasn’t expected to make the team anyway. So the guy who caused the problem is already gone. It wasn’t a starter on either side of the ball or someone who the Jets had high hopes for. That certainly makes the problem a lot more manageable.

As for replacing Geno, the Jets already have a contingency plan in place. Ryan Fitzpatrick was brought in the offseason to offer some competition for Smith and will now step into the starting role. Many feel that Fitzpatrick is more suited for the starting job anyway. He showed flashes of brilliance last year, including a six-touchdown performance against Tennessee, while playing for the Texans. He also knows the offense that Smith was attempting to learn for the first time. Fitzpatrick played under now Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey when he was the head coach in Buffalo. He ran the system for a few years and is very familiar with both the terminology and mindset. Fitzpatrick made his only Pro Bowl playing in that offense. Now, it is a bit much to start expecting a Pro Bowl year out of Fitzpatrick but he should be an immediate upgrade over the incumbent Smith given his prior experience.

Ryan_Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick playing last season in Houston. The Texans were 6-6 in games he started.

For management, this opens a previously unforeseen door. This situation should pan out a lot like the Mark Sanchez situation when Smith joined the team as a rookie. Sanchez injured his shoulder late in the preseason and subsequently missed the entire year. That allowed Geno to take over the starting job and the Jets to cut Sanchez when they thought they had a better option in Smith. Additionally, the Jets are able to see what Fitzpatrick can do in this offense. If he excels, the Jets can release Smith and roll with Fitzpatrick under center until rookie Bryce Petty is ready to take over the gig. If Fitzpatrick struggles, then the Jets can turn the offense back over to Geno when he is healthy. This allow New York to see what they have in Fitzpatrick without having to pull the rug out from underneath Smith. It won’t be awkward either to put Smith in either now if Fitzpatrick struggles because he never started previously. Overall, this situation definitely works out in the Jets’ favor.

I’m sure the coaching staff will maintain that they really saw a lot in Smith and were eager to see him start this season but he has two years of mediocre play in his past already that doesn’t promise much. Smith ranked 25th in Total QBR a season ago, tied with Kyle Orton. In 30 career games played, he has thrown for only 5,571 yards with a 6.88 yard per attempt rate. His completion percentage is a lowly 57.5 and he has thrown nine more interceptions than touchdowns. Smith had his few bright spots in his play, namely against Atlanta in 2013 and Miami at the end of last season, but on the whole he has been one of the five worst starting quarterbacks in the league. He would have to make massive strides to get himself on par with even an average NFL quarterback.

Now with Smith out, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Jets target another quarterback, like Matt Flynn, in case Fitzpatrick gets hurt. The latter did miss the final four games of the season with a torn pectoral muscle last year. The Jets want to avoid putting Petty into game action at all costs so finding another suitable backup will be a priority.

Smith’s career is all but over in New York. This injury is a blessing in disguise. It allows the new regime to find a quarterback they selected to start. It may also be a blessing for Geno. All of the reports this offseason have indicated that this was a great camp for him. With no evidence so far to prove otherwise, that means Smith might draw some interest from other clubs if he is released from New York. He would be a project player but because Smith never had a chance to play, he will be an unknown commodity. That usually isn’t a good thing but it certainly beats out being a proven failure, which Smith would have been had he blown yet another chance in New York. When all is said in done, I think this will settle well for everyone. Now, to go send IK Enempalki a thank you card….

NFL Preseason Awards

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL ,

The NFL season sort of officially kicked off last night with the annual Hall of Fame game between the Vikings and Steelers in Canton, Ohio. The starters only played a handful of minutes but it was good to see players back in uniform playing against another team.

With the start of the season comes thoughts of how it will project. Which teams will make the playoffs, which will be bad and who will make the Super Bowl are among the common questions asked. Right now I am going to look at individual performance though for players who will truly have an impact on the game this year. Some of these are no-brainers. Others are a little bit trickier. Either way, here is my best shot at predicted the end of the season award winners.

MVP: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Runner up: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
The popular pick is probably Rodgers with all of the weapons he has at his disposal. Weapons that are nowhere close to as effective with him out of the lineup either. However, Luck has been winning since day 1 in Indianapolis. This team is built around Luck and truly will go as far as he can take them. Adding Andre Johnson and Frank Gore gives the Colts some veteran options to work with and I expect Luck to get the most out of them. Expect another AFC South crown from Indy and this time Luck will be the catalyst to a top spot in the AFC.

Offensive Player of the Year: LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills
Runner up: Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
This seems like an odd pick considering McCoy had a down year last season and is starting with a brand new team. But think for a second what Rex Ryan likes to do more than pretty much anyone in the world. Run the football. McCoy will get more than his fair share of touches in the backfield and will be able to stay fresh with Fred Jackson spelling him whenever he needs. With no reliable quarterback in place either, McCoy will be the main source of offense in Buffalo this season.

Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans
Runner up: Robert Quinn, DE, St. Louis Rams
This is one of those no-brainers when making these selections. J.J. Watt has simply been superhuman over the past three seasons and I see no reason for that not to continue here. He consistently dominates the competition and with some potential help coming the form of Jadeveon Clowney, Watt could have even more opportunities to be disruptive. Look for another strong showing from the league’s best defensive player.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
Runner up: Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders

Amari Cooper might very well be the best player from this draft when all is said and done but for now Melvin Gordon is taking home the honors. Gordon enters a great situation in San Diego. They have a well established offensive line and a team that likes to light things up on offense. You can assume that Gordon will get 15 to 18 touches per game. Which should be more than enough to make his impact felt. He won’t need to be the key source of offense at all times with Phillip Rivers under center but Gordon will still make a major impact.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Leonard Williams, DE, New York Jets
Runner up: Marcus Peters, CB Kansas City Chiefs
When it first happened, the Jets selection of Leonard Williams seemed kind of redundant. Once Sheldon Richardson received his suspension for violating the NFL drug policy and then the ensuing legal run in, Williams seems like he will play a much more important role. He will play alongside Damon Harrison and Mo Wilkerson so there is not much of a chance Williams sees too much of the attention when blocking. He will be a disruptive force in the running game and could wind up with his fair share of sacks with the way Todd Bowles likes to blitz. Williams will have a big year for this defense.

Comeback Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Runner up: Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals
If it wasn’t for the fact that Adrian Peterson is one of the best running backs in the NFL then Palmer would have this award locked up. However, Peterson is returning from a year where he played one game before missing the whole season due to legal trouble. With an offense that seems to have a much more solidified passing attack than when he left, Peterson won’t need to carry this team but he will still be the best player on it. That will be good enough to earn Peterson the award.

Coach of the Year: Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings
Runner up: Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
I think Andy Reid will have a successful year coaching the Chiefs in the wide open West. However, the job that Mike Zimmer has already done with the Vikings should earn him the award. He dealt with the Peterson drama all offseason and now has the Vikings looking like a playoff team. They won’t surpass the Packers for the NFC North title but he will get them into the wildcard. Zimmer will coach this group up to a 10-6 record and get the most out of his guys.

Why Matthew Stafford doesn’t cut it

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL ,

There is a lot of pressure when it comes to making the right choice with the first pick in the NFL draft. We have seen our fair share of Hall of Famers, (Peyton Manning, John Elway, Lee Roy Selmon, Earl Campbell) and we’ve seen some hilarious busts (JaMarcus Russell, Courtney Brown, Ricky Bell, Ki-Jana Carter). It really can be hit or miss sometimes.

Matt_Stafford_2009_croppedMatthew Stafford is one of those first overall picks, from the 2009 edition of the draft. Stafford is by no means a bust. He has put up 21,000 yards and 131 touchdowns in his career. However, Stafford really doesn’t cut it for me. He is not number one overall material in terms of what his value turned out to be. He has been an average NFL quarterback, nothing more nothing less.

There are a lot of reasons I’m not too high on Stafford as a starting NFL quarterback. It starts with his over-inflated passing stats. Stafford consistently throws for 4,500 yards in a season, including over 5,000 in 2011. Those numbers look great but Stafford also throws an enormous amount of passes. His career average yards per attempt sits at 7.01. Stafford has never ranked in the top ten for yards per attempt in a single season. He came close in 2012 finishing 11th. He has finished twice outside the top 20 though, including this past season. Among active starters, Stafford is tied with Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton for yards per attempt in their career at 15th. That is underwhelming for sure. That isn’t all on Stafford because his receivers are responsible for picking up yards after the catch as well. However, part of the explanation comes in the next fault in his game.

Matthew_Stafford_(cropped)59.6 percent. That is Stafford’s career completion percentage. His receivers cannot pick up yards for him if Stafford cannot get them the ball. That number ranks Stafford 19th among active quarterbacks. That is below what would even be considered average. Stafford has only managed to rise above 60 percent twice in his four full years as the starter. This stat can be a little misleading because drops and throwaways can play a roll in driving a quarterback’s completion percentage down. Keep in mind though that Stafford doesn’t really need to be totally accurate when throwing to Calvin Johnson due to his insane catch radius. I think that balances any other factors.

You would think too that with guys like Johnson and nowadays Golden Tate at his disposal, Stafford would have a ridiculous number of touchdowns. Over the last four years, Stafford has tossed on average 28 touchdowns per year, which is pretty darn good. Unfortunately, when you look at the last three seasons though, ignoring his 41 touchdown anomaly in 2011, that number drops to 23.7. That second number is a lot more middle of the pack. Over the past three years as well, Stafford has been all up and down, finishing t-20th, 6th and 14th in touchdown passes. That range brings us to the next point.

Matthew_Stafford_2014Stafford lacks consistency, which is something teams desperately crave in a quarterback. Looking at this past year, Stafford toss multiple touchdowns in half of his games. At the same time, he also had four games where he failed to throw a touchdown pass. He also had five games where he threw for 300+ yards. That was juxtaposed to the three games though where Stafford failed to top 185 yards. And while you should dominate bad teams, none of Stafford’s 300+ yard days where against teams that finished in the top half of the league in pass defense and three of the teams were among the bottom five.

All quarterbacks should beat up on bad teams. However, good quarterbacks need to performance against good teams as well. That is something Stafford has really struggled with. Against teams that finish the season with a winning record, Stafford is a mediocre 3-24 in the last four years. That is downright pathetic. And this has to fall mostly on Stafford’s shoulders if he really wants to be an elite quarterback. He can’t blame a sub par defense or a shoddy running game. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers won Super Bowls with average defenses and mostly non-existent running games. It’s not easy, but it can be done.

Stafford has zero playoff wins, one Pro Bowl selection (after four other quarterbacks dropped out) and is still riding the one year where he put up Pro Bowl caliber numbers, and still failed to make it. And if all of this has failed to convince you that Stafford is simply an average quarterback, maybe this will. ESPN uses the statistic Total QBR to measure a quarterback’s overall contribution to a game and weights the performance based on the number of plays and the scenario in which certain events occur. It is measured on a scale of 1-100 with 50 being average. In his six total NFL seasons, Stafford has finished each year with a rating below 61, including this season when he posted a 53.5. That was worse than Jay Cutler rated. The same guy who was benched toward the end of the season due to his poor play.

Plain and simple, he just isn’t that good. The Lions are never winning a Super Bowl with Stafford under center. He does not step up in big games and displays incredible inconsistency. He might have a few dazzling games here or there but on the whole, he is a largely average quarterback who has a durable enough arm to throw the ball 600 times a season. On the whole, Stafford just doesn’t cut it.

Top ten NFL preseason games to watch

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL

10. Washington vs. Cleveland

This might seem like a game to sleep through but there are some very important things to watch for in this first week matchup. First will be to see how Robert Griffin III looks after another offseason in this new system. He struggled mightily last year and likely won’t play a ton but seeing out on the field for the first time will be something to watch. The focus will also be on this remade Washington defense with Junior Galette and Preston Smith as the pass rushers and Brian Orakpo no longer in the picture. For Cleveland, the biggest takeaway will be who they march out at quarterback to start the game. Mike Pettine has not given much indication as to who will start. This will also be our first chance to get a glimpse of Terrelle Pryor at wide receiver.

9. Denver vs. Houston

Two good teams facing off obviously but with several of things to watch for. Peyton Manning probably won’t take the field, but if he does then it will be interesting to see what kind of shape he is in. There will be some noticeable absences in other parts of the Bronco offense too with Julius Thomas and Manny Ramirez now suiting up for different teams. For Houston, this is another case of who comes out as the starting quarterback. Beyond that, there will be some intrigue as to who excels in the Houston backfield with Arian Foster now expected to miss the beginning of the season due to injury. Plus, it’s probably worth tuning in just in case J.J. Watt does something cool.

8. Buffalo vs. Detroit

Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh left Detroit in free agency so all eyes will be on the Lions defensive line to see who steps up to take the starting job. And while he won’t play much most likely, seeing how Calvin Johnson looks after spending most of last season somewhat banged up will be something to keep an eye on. For Buffalo, this game will likely include a lot of their back ups, including E.J. Manuel. This will probably be his last audition for the Bills to keep him or for him to show enough for another team to sign him in the future. Oh and LeSean McCoy is in a Bills uniform.

7. Chicago vs. Cincinnati

This game features two perennial underachievers in the third week of the preseason. That tends to be the week where the starters play the most. That means we will see if Jay Cutler looks any better throwing to Alshon Jeffrey and Kevin White. It also means we will get to see how many carries Giovanni Bernard will receive in as close to a real game scenario as possible. The game might not count but both of these teams are under intense pressure to perform this season. This will be a chance to see how each team looks in their final dress rehearsal.

6. Kansas City vs. Arizona

Kansas City travels to Arizona during the first week of the preseason and their are a lot of things I want to keep an eye on here. First and foremost is the status of Carson Palmer’s knee. He won’t play much but this will be his first game action since tearing his ACL last November. I also want to see who is getting the majority of the touches in the Arizona backfield as well as how the Cardinal defense is adjusting without Todd Bowles calling the shots. For Kansas City, this will be Jeremy Maclin’s first appearance in a Chiefs uniform which is exciting. It will also be our first glimpse at breakout candidate Travis Kelce this year.

5. Atlanta vs. Miami

The headlines here begin with Ndamukong Suh getting significant playing time in a Dolphins’ jersey. This game is in week three and we will see if Ryan Tannehill really has built on last season. He has better targets this year with DeVante Parker playing alongside Greg Jennings and Jarvis Landry now. Those guys will be going up against a new look Atlanta defense. Former Seahawks coordinator Dan Quinn arrived as the new head coach and has spent a lot of time attempting to remake this defense. This will be a good indicator of whether his work was worth it.

4. Philadelphia vs. Indianapolis

No team underwent more change this offseason than Philadelphia did. LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin are gone. As are Evan Mathis, Nick Foles, Brandon Boykins and a handful of other Eagles starters from a season ago. This will be the first chance to see the new look Eagles in action. The secondary also has a tall task of defending Andrew Luck, which will be a good first sign to see if the group is gelling. For the Colts, Andre Johnson and Frank Gore won’t play much but they will be in Colts’ uniforms for the first time ever which definitely is something to look forward to.

3. Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota

Adrian Peterson returns in the Hall of Fame game. Teddy Bridgewater has a chance to get some game action with his new weapons and the Steelers will begin to adjust to life without LeVeon Bell. The starters won’t play a ton in this one but it will allow us to see Vikings’ receiver Stefon Diggs in action as well, who has been drawing comparisons to Steelers receiver Antonio Brown in training camp. We will also get to see how Trae Waynes and Bud Dupree are adjusting to the NFL for the first time.

2. Green Bay vs. New England

There are a number of reasons to tune into this one. For starters, this could be a Super Bowl preview in the preseason. On top of that, Jimmy Garappolo will likely see a lot of playing time, which is a big deal if he has to start the first four games of this season. The Patriots and every fan on Earth will be eager to see what Garappolo can do as he is about to have to fill in for a future Hall of Famer. For Green Bay, this is mainly the same team but some questions still remain in that secondary. This is the first place they might find answers.

1. New York Jets vs. New York Giants

This is easily my favorite game of the preseason to watch. It is the New York rivalry game. Looking beyond that though the Jets are searching for an answer at quarterback and this will be either Geno Smith’s or Ryan Fitzpatrick’s best chance to prove they deserve to start week one. Not to mention, watching Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie match up across from Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz will be so much to watch. It will also be our first chance to see Cruz in extended game action after, suffering that terrible knee injury a year ago.

Why the NFL had no choice with Brady

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , ,

The NFL is a joke these days. The fact that you can sit there and think to yourself, well what are you referring to here is some indication of how much so. It could be the laughable attempts to improve player safety, the failure to address domestic violence or the continued drug related suspensions. In this case, I’m actually referring to none of those though and I’m focusing on the NFL time and time again reducing or repealing player suspensions.

It has been a long six months for Tom Brady. Usually, the Super Bowl champion would get at least a little time to relax and savor his victory. Instead, he has spent his offseason in the midst of a private investigation regarding the deflation of footballs in the AFC Title Game against the Colts. Brady was subjected to questioning first by the league then later by independent investigators under Ted Wells. The whole story was poked and prodded as much as possible and the media (yes myself included) had a field day with it. It was a supposed stain on the legacy of Brady and the Pats Super Bowl win.

Tom_BradyYet as time has gone on, no real hard evidence has surfaced. The Wells report indicates that Brady “more likely than not” was aware of the situation. Brady once again refuted the claims but the league imposed a four-game ban on the New England quarterback for the start of next season.

That didn’t settle anything though as the NFL Players Association (NFLPA) and Brady went on to appeal the suspension. That to weeks of trials and further investigations into the situation. What surfaced most recently definitely puts Brady in some hot water. It turns out he had destroyed his cell phone and sim card while the NFL was trying to acquire them as evidence. He claims it was a normal procedure for him as he was replacing his old phone. I can bet Brady wouldn’t want his own personal information, messages or photos falling into the wrong hands and winding up online. It makes sense to destroy. Unfortunately, he just picked a really bad time to do it.

The phone destruction doesn’t necessarily prove anything but it certainly makes Brady look guilty and that was enough for the NFL to vote to uphold the suspension. Brady and the NFLPA are now appealing that decision because apparently you can appeal everything in the NFL. Maybe Brady has a point that the NFL doesn’t have enough hard evidence but that’s not why they are making an example of him.

As I have made clear the NFL is a joke with reducing and repealing suspensions. So it should come as no surprise that the league feels it is pressured to uphold Brady’s suspension to save face. The NFL can attempt to be as harsh as it wants but it has previously set precedents that the NFLPA will often use as a way to negotiate down a suspension. There seems to be no rhyme or reason to the length of some of them either (see Ray Rice, domestic violence). In short, the NFL has looked weak and it seems like the NFLPA has just been pushing them around.

Tom BradyThe league has no desire to look weak obviously. Already this summer Greg Hardy and LeVeon Bell had suspensions reduced after appealing the decision. The league needed to make a stand and show that it is capable of dishing out a suspension then upholding it. The NFL gave itself no choice but to uphold the suspension. Brady just seems to be caught in the crossfire. Now I can’t tell you if Tom Brady is innocent or not. That much has not been clear. What is clear is the overall lack of cohesion between the NFL and the NFLPA and the amount of leeway Commissioner Roger Goodell has with suspensions.

The NFL was in many ways forced to implement a system that established standard sentences regarding domestic violence punishments. The league also has a system in place for violations of the substance abuse policy. However, outside of those two categories, there is a lot left open for interpretation. That is where Goodell simply seem to slap an arbitrary number of weeks on the table and say it is final. The league needs to find a way to avoid that at all costs. That sort of uncertainty surrounding the suspension allows it to be appealed. Brady’s situation is unique but that does not mean that Goodell should choose what he feels is warranted. It is more than clear that Goodell’s judgement is questionable at best.

The easiest thing for the league to do is arrange an outside board that collaborates with the NFLPA to assign suspensions that fall outside the realm of domestic violence or substance abuse. That was not everything is being appealed before it even hits the table and Goodell is removed from the equation.

As for Brady, there is only one way that the league will relent on his four-game suspension, if he admits that he was involved or had knowledge of the situation. Even then, it would only cut his suspension in half. I don’t see Brady going this far only to back off and say he knew. Whether he did or not. I think Brady is just going to have to bite the bullet and sit out the four games. No one seems capable of coming to his rescue. Not even the NFLPA. The NFL is determined to make up for past weaknesses.  It is at war. And it seems determined to win.