Free Agency

Why Griffin Makes Sense in Cleveland

Chris McGlynn Football, Free Agency, NFL , , , , ,

So I was right! I was just about six months early.

Robert Griffin III
Griffin has 40 career touchdown passes from his time in Washington.

Robert Griffin III signed with the Cleveland Browns this afternoon, joining the laundry list of quarterback to play for Cleveland over the last 15 years. While the internet might have had some fun with this, signing Griffin makes a lot of sense for the Browns.

It’s not like the Browns have many better options on their roster right now. Josh McCown is 36 going on 70 and that Manziel guy is now a free agent with some legal trouble. The only other guy on the roster is Austin Davis, whose 13 career NFL starts have left a lot to be desired.

So instead, the Browns are taking a gamble on the former Heisman trophy winner. And there is really no harm in that. Cleveland will likely draft a quarterback with the second overall pick and all signs point to it being Carson Wentz.

Wentz has looked solid during the pre-draft process and he is seemingly pro ready. However, the Browns know better than anyone else on planet Earth that forcing quarterbacks to play in the NFL before they are ready can be catastrophic.

Griffin’s contract is reportedly for two years and maxes out at $15 million. Paying about $7.5 million per year for a short term starting quarterback isn’t a bad deal and because the deal is short, the Browns are not really committed to Griffin. He essentially has a two-year window to show if he can still play in the league. If the answer is no, then start Wentz in 2017.

RG3
Griffin is 15-24 over the first three seasons of his career. 

The reality is that the Browns need someone to play quarterback and they are taking a low-risk high-reward gamble on RGIII. And this is not Denver where they are likely just a quarterback away from a deep playoff run. Cleveland would miss the playoffs this year with Russell Wilson under center. There just isn’t enough talent. Getting Griffin gives the Browns a stopgap while they continue to try to improve in other areas of the roster and groom a future starter.

Imagine for just a second if Griffin somehow reverts to his 2012, rookie of the year form during the next two seasons with the Browns. First of all, Griffin would then have suitors around the league after his contract is over and Cleveland would have the happy situation of having two starting quarterbacks.

In the best case scenario, Griffin proves to be a stud and the Browns ship him off to Denver or Philadelphia after his first season for some draft picks. Worst case scenario is that Griffin flounders again, or even more likely gets hurt, and Cleveland turns the keys over to Wentz at the start of his second year.

All in all, I think this is a great deal for both sides. Cleveland gets a two-year rental at quarterback and Griffin gets one last shot to prove he can still play in this league.

Potential landing spots for Alex Mack

Chris McGlynn Football, Free Agency, NFL , , , ,

Every year, there is a premier talent that hits the open market in the NFL. Turns out that the hottest commodity is one we did not expect.

Alex Mack
Mack started every game in six out of his seven seasons with Cleveland.

Alex Mack announced at Pro Bowl practice that he would like to opt out of his current deal with the Cleveland Browns. Mack is a three-time Pro Bowler and a former All-Pro. He is widely regarded as a top five player at his position.

Mack is set to make $8 million with his current deal, but he and his agent believe that he is worth a lot more than that and that he can get a lot more than that. With few other centers expected to be available in free agency, we could see that boost Mack’s value even more.

While this does not mean that Mack is definitely leaving the Browns, the possibility now exists. So I figured it was time to find a couple of good fits for when he hits the free agent market. Something to note is that Mack definitely fits better as a pass blocker than a run blocker, so that needs to be considered.

Hue Jackson
Jackson should make retaining Mack a priority in his first days as coach.

Cleveland Browns
Obviously, Mack would have just opted out of his Browns deal, but it seems more monetary than distain for Cleveland. With the Browns under a new direction with Hue Jackson at head coach, Mack might be enticed into hanging around. The Browns would need him too. The closest thing to a backup center is either long-snapper Charley Hughlett or rookie right guard Cameron Erving, who played center at Florida State. Mack would be a center piece on a developing offense that needs a huge makeover already.

Russell_Wilson
Wilson suffered the most sacks of his career this season.

Seattle Seahawks
This past offseason, Seattle outsmarted itself in trading for Jimmy Graham. It was assumed that the former All-Pro tight end would push the Seahawks of the brink and turn them into a true powerhouse. However, the lack of a steady offensive line proved to be the constant issue for the offense all year. Part of the deal to acquire Graham involved sending Pro Bowl center Max Unger to New Orleans. Bringing in Mack would truly make Seattle’s offense scary. If they cut down on the 46 sacks allowed this past season and give Russell Wilson more time to pick apart offenses, look out.

Blake Bortles
Bortles was sacked 106 times over the last two seasons.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Even though spending big every season in free agency hasn’t seemed to work, adding Mack could be a savvy move for this young Jaguars squad. Blake Bortles is clearly coming into his own and the skill positions for Jacksonville look to be improving. Solidifying the offensive line by signing a proven veteran like Mack would make a major impact. Jacksonville allowed the fourth most sacks in the league this season and failed to impress in the running game. Mack would immediately remedy both of those issues, along with replace soon-to-be free agent Stefan Wisniewski. In the end, Jacksonville should push very hard to sign Mack.

NFL: Preseason-Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans
Mariota only managed to start 12 games in his rookie season.

Tennessee Titans
Another AFC South team could use some help on the offensive line, especially when you consider the circumstances. Tennessee has a young quarterback in Marcus Mariota who got banged around this season and missed some time with various injuries. The Titans also match up twice a year with the Houston Texans, which means a nice dosage of J.J. Watt. The Titans allowed the most sacks by any NFL team this season and had a ground game that was average at best. Plugging in Mack and then drafting Laremy Tunsil first overall makes this group look like one of the better ones in the league. Mack’s presence could make a huge difference in whether the Titans continue to falter near the bottom or start showing signs that the rebuild has worked.

Free agency is still a long way off but Mack seems intent on exploring his options. If Mack does leave Cleveland, I think his first choice would be to play in Seattle, but I would not be surprised to see him land in Jacksonville either.

Potential NFL Cap Casualties

Chris McGlynn Football, Free Agency, NFL , ,

For 12 NFL teams, the focus remains on the playoffs. For the other 20 teams though, it is time to start thinking about the offseason. With a little (ok a lot) of help from Spotrac.com, I went through and determined the players on the 20 teams not in postseason action most likely to be cap casualties this offseason.

Falcons logoAtlanta Falcons
Tyson Jackson, DE
Roddy White, WR
Matt Bryant, K
Jacob Tamme, TE
Total Savings: $13.45 million
The first year of the Dan Quinn era got off to a good start, but there were some veterans on the team who definitely did not contribute to what their pay grade indicates they should have. Tyson Jackson failed to register a sack this season and has a $6.35 million price tag attached to him. Roddy White showed his age and is not worth the 6 million and change it would cost to keep him. Matt Bryant has been good but at age 40 he is reaching the end of his career and Atlanta can find a cheaper option. Tamme is a back up on the team and would save over a million if they cut him.

Ravens logoBaltimore Ravens
Ladarius Webb, CB
Dennis Pitta, TE
Total Savings: $11.5 million
Ladarius Webb just turned 30 and is on the downside of his career. Dennis Pitta has not been able to stay healthy over the past few years and is not worth the $7.2 million he counts against the cap next season. They will probably restructure Joe Flacco’s contract as well, as it would save them over $11 million in cap space. Maybe with the money, Baltimore can invest in a wide receiver.

Bills logoBuffalo Bills
Mario Williams, DE
Total Savings: $15.5 million
Paying $19.9 million for any player is ridiculous, especially when you can cut him to save that much. Rex Ryan has already made it clear that Williams will not be back. Look for the team to restructure Marcel Dareus’ contract as well to save an additional $6 million.


Bears logoChicago Bears
Antrel Rolle, S
Total Savings: $3 million
Rolle is 33 now and the Bears need to infuse some youth on this defense. Chicago actually has a ton of cap space to work with already (roughly $59 million). The Bears could create a ton of room as well if they can restructure Jay Cutler’s deal. It would save them about $13 million in cap space, giving them $75 million to spend.

Browns logoCleveland Browns
Dwayne Bowe, WR
Josh McCown, QB
Karlos Dansby, LB
Total Savings: $11.78 million
Cutting Dwayne Bowe doesn’t save a ton compared to what his cap hit was supposed to be, but he was so terrible in 2015, he needs to go. Josh McCown does not have a spot on this team either. Dansby is 34 and saves $5 million in cap space if he is cut. The Browns could rework Joe Haden’s deal to save an extra $7 million as well.

Cowboys logoDallas Cowboys
No one
Total Savings: None
This seems lame but really the Cowboys have no one to cut that will make a huge difference. At least no one they can afford to lose. I think Dallas will restructure Tony Romo’s and Tyron Smith’s deals though in order to free up close to $21.4 million in cap space.

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Detroit Lions
Brandon Pettigrew, TE
Rashean Mathis, CB
Total Savings: $5.15 million
With rumors circulating that Calvin Johnson might retire, the Lions could have even more cap room. Eric Ebron has taken over for Pettigrew at tight end and Mathis is 35 already. Detroit desperately needs to infuse some youth and spend some draft picks on their secondary. If Megatron stays, don’t be surprised to see his deal restructured, as it would save the Lions over $12 million.

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Indianapolis Colts
Andre Johnson, WR
Trent Cole, OLB
Erik Walden, OLB
Total Savings: $15.25 million
All three of these players are coming off disappointing seasons. Cole and Johnson had the worst seasons of their careers while Walden failed to make much of an impact.

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Jacksonville Jaguars
Chris Clemons, DE
Dan Skuta, OLB
Total Savings: $7.6 million
Neither one of these guys has to go and I wouldn’t be surprised if they both stayed. They are just the two most likely players to get cut. Clemons only started seven games this year and registered just three sacks. Skuta was also a spot starter and with both Telvin Smith and Dante Fowler projecting as the starters for next season, he is more of a surplus at this point.

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Miami Dolphins
Quinton Coples, OLB
Greg Jennings, WR
Total Savings: $12.75 million
Neither of these players did much in 2015. Jennings has been replaced in the offensive by both Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. Coples was a midseason signing with no track record. Cutting him costs the Dolphins nothing and saves them $7.75 million. Look for them to rework Ndomakung Suh’s and Ryan Tannehill’s deals to save about $25.1 million.

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New Orleans Saints
Marques Colston, WR
Total Savings: $5.5 million
Colston started to show his age this year and will likely not be returning. The Saints won’t cut Drew Brees, most likely, but they will force him to take a pay cut for sure. He counts $30 million against the cap next year and the Saints cannot afford that.

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New York Giants
Victor Cruz, WR
Total Savings: $8 million
The Giants can afford to keep Cruz, but at 29 with a long injury history, New York will likely let him walk. The Giants can also restructure Eli Manning’s deal to give them an additional $12.4 in cap space. That would give New York close to $60 million in cap room for the upcoming offseason.

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New York Jets
Antonio Cromartie, CB
Breno Giacomini, RT
Geno Smith, QB
Total Savings: $13.5 million
The Jets are very deep in the secondary and with Cromartie already at 31 years old, New York can let him walk. Cutting Giacomini, who has been underwhelming, would let the Jets draft a tackle in the first round to fix that spot. Getting rid of Smith only saves $1 million, but it lets the Jets move on from a terrible draft pick. If the team needs money to make a big deal in free agency, Darrelle Revis’ contract can be reworked to save over $12 million.

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Oakland Raiders
Sebastian Janikowski, K
Total Savings: $3.6 million
Janikowski is 37 now and has one of the highest cap numbers for kickers in the league. Like Jacksonville, Oakland doesn’t need to cut him, but if they cut someone, I think he is most likely. The Raiders already have $64 million in cap room.

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Philadelphia Eagles
Brent Celek, TE
Total Savings: $5 million
Over the last two years, Brent Celek has clearly become second fiddle to Zach Ertz. He turned 30 this year as well, which doesn’t help his case. I think Philly will rework Byron Maxwell’s deal to save some additional space.

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San Diego Chargers
Donald Brown, RB
Total Savings: $3.5 million
With Bradon Oliver, Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead already in San Diego, Donald Brown probably gets ruled as excess. Look for San Diego to rework Philip Rivers’ deal to save north of $11 million in cap space too.

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San Francisco 49ers
Colin Kaepernick, QB
Erik Pears, RT
Total Savings: $15.5 million
With Anthony Davis potentially coming back in 2016, the 49ers won’t need the 33-year old Pears anymore at right tackle. We’ve also likely seen the last of Colin Kaepernick in the Bay Area. Cutting him will save the Niners $13.4 million in cap space.

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St. Louis Rams
No one
Total Savings: None
Similar to Dallas, the Rams don’t have anyone they would like to cut to save money. We could see Robert Quinn’s deal restructured though to save St. Louis about $5.3 million.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vincent Jackson, WR
Logan Mankins, LG
Total Savings: $16.8 million
Over the past two seasons, Vincent Jackson’s production has dropped off. Granted this season he was hurt, but he will be 33 in 2016 and Tampa needs to continue to build a young foundation. Releasing him saves the Bucs almost $10 million. Logan Mankins was great for a stop-gap solution but he is not the long term answer. Rather than keep him on another year, save $7 million and cut him now.

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Tennessee Titans
Da’Norris Searcy, SS
Total Savings: $5 million
Searcy is not the answer at safety and the Titans do not need to have him count that extra $5 million against the cap while they find his replacement. The Titans need to draft well to get back into playoff contention.

Players in make or break years

Chris McGlynn Football, Free Agency, NFL , , , ,

Every NFL player is under intense scrutiny but these ten players have the heat turned up just a bit higher.

Mike_WallaceMike Wallace, Minnesota Vikings
The speedster who looked like an inevitable star in Pittsburgh took his talents to South Beach and then disappeared. Well not completely disappeared but he never became the star that the Dolphins paid him to become. He was still productive though, tallying 1792 yards and 15 touchdowns during his two years in Miami. However, Wallace found himself looking for a job at season’s end and now joins a young Minnesota team. With Charles Johnson bursting onto the scene and Corradelle Patterson still trying to find his way, there is room for Wallace in this team. However, if Patterson rediscovers his rookie year form and either Stephan Diggs or Jerrell Wright starts showing promise, don’t be surprised if Wallace’s time with the Vikings is short.

Trent_RichardsonTrent Richardson, Oakland Raiders
The 2012 draft is full of running backs that failed to live up to their billing. The most successful pick turned out to be Alfred Morris and that was in a draft where the potential of guys like Doug Martin and David Wilson had GMs drooling. Richardson is likely the most disappointing of them all though and now entering his fourth season, Richardson is joining his third team in as many years. Averaging a pedestrian 3.3 yards per carry heading to Oakland is not a good sign. This is likely the former Alabama products last chance to stick in the league. If he fails in Oakland, no one else is going to gamble on him again.

RG3Robert Griffin III, Washington
RG3 has had expectations heaped on him since day one. He electrified the league as a rookie but a knee injury and some adjustment to the read option offense have largely quashed what looked to be a promising career. However, the Redskins have not had a whole lot of success rotating other quarterbacks into the lineup, spare a Monday Night Miracle by Colt McCoy. Griffin is going to get one last shot at turning it around in Washington and recapturing his Rookie of the Year performance. This is the final year of his contract and if he does not show signs of marked improvement, you can be sure that Washington will not be looking to renew his deal. That would definitely put Griffin in the conversation for biggest draft bust of all time.

Geno SmithGeno Smith, New York Jets
Geno Smith probably doesn’t need reminding that he is running out of time in New York. Smith has failed to make a great first impression in his first two season with the Jets and now with Ryan Fitzpatrick waiting in the wings, Smith has real competition. Pair that with the fact that the team has a new coach and a new GM and that spells the end of Smith’s tenure in the Big Apple at the first sign of trouble. The Jets have indicated that they will give Geno every chance to win the starting job and grow but if he struggles at any point, don’t be surprised to see Todd Bowles turn to Fitzpatrick.

Percy_HarvinPercy Harvin, Buffalo Bills
Joining his fourth team in as many years is not how most people thought you would be describing Percy Harvin back in 2012. But after a trade to Seattle that was marred with injuries and another trade to the Jets that was average at best, Harvin is now set to join the Bills. He could fit the roll of a C.J. Spiller type of do it all player. However, this team is searching for an identity with a new coach. Harvin has some background with the coach in question as he played for Rex Ryan in New York just last year. If Harvin fails to impress though or cannot stay on the field, he could find himself bouncing to yet another team.

Prince_AmukamaraPrince Amukamara, New York Giants
The former first round pick is set to enter his fifth big league season. However, Amukamara has only played all 16 games once so far in his career. Over the past four years, Prince has been unavailable for 20 of New York’s games. Amukamara started off last season promising with 3 picks and 11 pass deflections in the first half of the year before once again suffering a season ending injury. With Dominique Rogers-Cromartie on one side, the Giants will be relying on Amukamara on the other. If he fails to hold up or cannot survive the rigors of a full season, New York will more than likely begin searching for his replacement.

Jarvis_JonesJarvis Jones, Pittsburgh Steelers
58 total tackles and 3 sacks is not what Pittsburgh thought they were getting when they drafted Jarvis Jones in 2013. The former first rounder came in with a lot of promise as a pass rusher but has failed to make much of an impact. Jones hasn’t managed to stay healthy either, appearing in only 21 games over the past two seasons. The Steelers’ once great defense is now a shell of itself in need of some new stars. The chance for Jones to step up is certainly there but with Pittsburgh tabbing Bud Dupree in the first round of this year’s draft, he will certainly have some competition.

Jay_CutlerJay Cutler, Chicago Bears
Believe it or not, Jay Cutler wasn’t always unpopular in Chicago. After the last two years of mediocre play which included being benched in favor of Jimmy Clausen, Bears fans’ indifference towards Cutler has turned to anger and disgust. He hasn’t always had the best offensive line in front of him, but Cutler has certainly had his fair share of targets to throw too. With Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett in his arsenal Cutler had no excuses. Yet he still tossed 18 interceptions in 15 games. At 32, Cutler is running out of time to win over the fans, and the management in Chicago.

May 10, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts linebacker Bjoern Werner (92) walks off the field after practicing in the Colts Rookie Minicamp at the Indiana Farm Bureau Insurance Football Center. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Bjorn Werner, Indianapolis Colts
Two years into his professional career, Werner has failed to turn too many heads. He was selected in the first round by Indianapolis back in 2013 with the label of a project. However, he has failed to develop a whole lot with only 68 tackles and 6.5 sacks in 28 career games. Nagging injuries have certainly played into Werner’s slow development but that isn’t a reassuring excuse. Werner will likely have to duke it out with Trent Cole and Erik Walden just to get playing time. Once he gets it, he needs to capitalize or he will be out of a job.

Sam_BradfordSam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles
Signing the richest rookie contract in history at the time was great for Sam Bradford. It turned out to not be so great for the Rams. Bradford only managed to play 49 games in 5 seasons for St. Louis. Coming off his second ACL tear in as many years, many doubt that Bradford is a reliable starting quarterback option. Bradford might be the player with the best chance to breakout this year on this list joining the playoff-hopeful Eagles. Chip Kelly has high hopes for him but if he hits the shelf again due to injury, don’t expect Bradford to be back again.

How much do you pay for a franchise quarterback?

Chris McGlynn Football, Free Agency, NFL , ,

Two Super Bowl appearances. One ring. Two-time Pro Bowler. Yeah Russell Wilson has a pretty impressive resume for a player entering only his fourth season. Yet he ranks 44th among quarterbacks in terms of how much he is paid. Wilson is paid less than Kellen Clemens, Bruce Gradkowski and Blaine Gabbert who combined attempted 13 passes all year for a grand total of 60 yards. In fact, Wilson only stands to make $200,000 more than Tavaris Jackson, Seattle’s backup quarterback.Russell_Wilson_with_Lombardi_Trophy

Obviously, Wilson is being grossly underpaid. His earnings for the 2015 season will come out to about six percent of what Drew Brees stands to make on the year. The Seattle signal caller obviously benefits from a strong running game and a smothering defense but the reality is that Wilson has put up nearly 10,000 career passing yards and 72 touchdowns in three years. And that’s while throwing to a group of largely unspectacular receivers. In his three seasons, Wilson has played with 12 different wideouts, who combined for three Pro Bowls among all of them. None of those Pro Bowl appearances were in a Seahawk uniform either.

It is only a matter of time before Wilson lands a big pay day. Between his spectacular play and his entering the final year of his rookie contract, there is no doubt it will be coming soon. The question that has started to form in many minds though is will it be from Seattle?

The Seahawks have negotiated with Wilson for several months now and it appears that the two sides are at a bit of a stalemate. Seattle wants to lock their franchise quarterback up for the next five or six years but they are trying to be creative with how they do so. The team has a number of other high profile players, mainly on defense, who could be in line for a new contract soon as well. If Wilson’s deal becomes too cap consuming then Seattle would likely have to watch a lot of talent walk out the door.

That isn’t sitting too well with Wilson though. He has always come off as a team player and an excellent teammate but he is maintaining that he wants to be paid like the high-profile quarterback he is. Wilson has gone as far as to say that he wants to be paid like a free agent now, despite still being under contract. It is a really interesting scenario that the Seattle front office finds itself in as they try to keep their Super Bowl window open.

Russell_WilsonWhat eventually comes from this situation could greatly alter the NFL landscape for the foreseeable future. It is starting to look possible that the Seahawks will let Wilson play out the last year of his contract. That could pay off as it allows Seattle to keep their financial flexibility and make another Super Bowl run with their plethora of talent.

Seattle could also choose to resign Wilson but to an unconventional contract. The general thinking is that the Seahawks could offer Wilson a deal that would only pay him 14 million dollars per year but that would be mostly or fully guaranteed. For example, if Seattle gave him a fully guaranteed 5-year, $70 million contract, this would offer an interesting balance. The $70 million total would rank as the 14th richest contract among quarterbacks. However, Wilson would have more guaranteed money than any quarterback in history. This appeals to Seattle as well because Wilson’s cap hit wouldn’t skyrocket. He would be tied with Tom Brady for the 14th largest hit in the league.

Should the latter occur, then we could see the model for which teams attempt to sign star players transform. By giving deals that focus less on lucrative incentives and more on less, but fully guaranteed, money teams would be able find more cap flexibility. It is certainly a risky move on the part of the team who would be locked in to paying the player all of the money regardless of performance, but it would be a high-risk, high-reward move. By avoiding having an exorbitant cap hit at the quarterback position would allow the team to pursue talent at other positions. For Seattle this could mean finding a way to pay Bruce Irvin as well as Wilson, prolonging the team’s Super Bowl window even further.

The outcome of Wilson’s contract could take some time to pan out. We really might not find an answer until next summer if the two sides cannot reach an agreement. The whole situation could really alter the playing field though in the NFL. If Wilson decided to walk away from Seattle, then we could start to see the NFL trend toward resembling the NBA with star players frequently switching teams. It is a bit of a stretch but it a conceivable trend.

The bottom line remains that Wilson will get paid, one way or another. It is simply a matter of when not if. He has threatened to join the MLB but realistically he won’t make the jump. Seattle struggled for year’s to find Matt Hasselback’s replacement. If they fail to play their cards right, they could be scrambling to find Wilson’s successor next year.