NBA

What if Cleveland hadn’t won the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery?

Chris McGlynn Basketball, Draft, NBA , ,

Andrew_Wiggins_2014The NBA draft lottery is always difficult to predict. The last time the team with the highest chance of winning the lottery landed the top pick was over a decade ago when the Magic won back in 2004. That pick turned into Dwight Howard and drastically changed Orlando’s fortunes for the next several years. Some teams have simply gotten lucky with the draft lottery. Cleveland ended up with the top pick in the draft three out of the past four years, including 2014, where the Cavs won despite only having a 1.7 percent chance. That is simply unprecedented. It makes you wonder what might have happened if the Cavaliers’ fortunes weren’t so great. Here is what would have happened if the Cavs did not win the 2014 NBA draft lottery.

First thing is first, Andrew Wiggins doesn’t go first overall anymore. Milwaukee wins the draft lottery instead and the Bucks made it clear they wanted Jabari Parker no matter what. Instead, Wiggins goes second overall to the 76ers, making Philadelphia a scary young team. What transpires after the draft drastically changes the outlook of the 2014-2015 NBA season.

With no elite bargaining chip, the Cavaliers are unable to pry Kevin Love from the Minnesota Timberwolves. Instead, Love is shipped to Boston in exchange for Marcus Smart, Rodney Hood and two future first round picks. With Love headed for the Celtics instead of the Cavaliers, LeBron James decides to opt into his contract with Miami. The King’s presence in South Beach means that Chris Bosh walks away from the Heat for a contract with the Houston Rockets. Bosh teams up with the aforementioned Howard and James Harden to form a new Big Three in Texas. Some other free agents change their decision as well. Pau Gasol joins Miami to fill Bosh’s void. The incredible amount of spending by the Heat means they cannot afford to add the young Hassan Whiteside, who instead joins Philadelphia now that Joel Embiid is not in the picture. And with Gasol bound for Florida, the Bulls hang on to Jusuf Nurkic rather than trade for Doug McDermott. Chicago also finds an incredible amount of cap space they use to lure Carmelo Anthony away from New York.

The season starts with plenty of crazy headlines. Orlando cannot wait to pair Embiid with Nikola Vucevic next season. The 76ers love their core of Michael Carter-Williams, Nerlens Noel and Andrew Wiggins and never send MCW to Milwaukee. Rajon Rondo could not be happier in Boston with another star present in the form of Love. Dallas is in desperate need of a point guard but with Rondo locked in for the Celtics, the Mavericks find themselves out of luck. Right around the trade deadline, with the playoffs essentially out of sight with Dallas, Oklahoma City and New Orleans all in front of them, Phoenix deals Goran Dragic to the Knicks in exchange for Tim Hardaway Jr. and Lance Thomas. The Suns also send Isiah Thomas packing but this time to Charlotte for Lance Stephenson and a couple of future picks.

When the playoffs roll around, the super teams in each conference, Miami and Houston, enter as the top seeds. Milwaukee and Dallas miss the postseason due to the trades that now never happen. The Heat matches up with the eighth-seeded Cavaliers in the first round as LeBron inflicts even more pain on Cleveland with a 4-0 sweep. Miami edges the fourth-seeded Celtics and beats out the talented Bulls for a return to the NBA Finals for a fifth straight year. They meet the Memphis Grizzlies after the Griz outlast Houston in the Western Conference Finals. Pau and Marc Gasol become the first brothers to face each other in the NBA Finals. It would be the elder Gasol who gets the last laugh as Miami snags its third title in five years.

LeBron_JamesThe following offseason, with his contract up and three rings to his name, James walks away from the Heat and joins the Cavaliers. Linking up with Kyrie Irving, James sets out to recruit either LaMarcus Aldridge or Marc Gasol to join him in Cleveland. Minnesota is still sitting with the worst record in the league after an atrocious 11-71 season. The Knicks and Lakers both join the Wolves as those among the bottom three in the league. All of this happens if a different ping-pong ball was picked back in May of last year. Instead of talking about Cleveland, all the hype would still be in Miami right now with the playoffs just getting underway and the MVP conversation would likely be over as James dominated the league once again. Who knows, maybe LeBron will still get that third ring anyway.

NBA MVP debate

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA , , ,

Three Second Look writers decided to talk about who the NBA Most Valuable Player should be for 2015. Here are the cases for who we think should be crowned league MVP.

Anthony_Davis

Anthony Davis has only improved in his first three seasons in the NBA. He had career highs across the board and played 68 games for the first time in his career. Most importantly, Davis carried his New Orleans Pelicans to the playoffs, and that is the reason why he is a dark horse MVP contender.

Let’s first compare Anthony Davis to other power forwards, and when one looks he is by far the best power forward. He has the highest the PER among all power forwards with 30. The next highest one was Blake Griffin with 22. LaMarcus Aldridge is not as efficient as Davis is, does not average as many points or rebounds and his defense is nowhere close to the level of Davis’.  Moreover, Griffin missed more games than Davis and did not even average anything close to a double double. Clearly, Davis has the clear advantage over his power forward peers.

Davis is the unanimous MVP of the Pelicans. When one looks at the other players they see that no one comes close.  Only four other players on the team averaged over 10 points, and no other player other than Davis averaged over 20 points. Davis’ MVP stock goes down because his team was an eighth seed. However, I think this is where Davis’s main argument for MVP comes in. This team had no business of getting into the playoffs without him. If you look at the 14 games Davis missed, New Orleans went 6-8 without him. The Pelicans are a below .500 team without the Kentucky product in the lineup. The fact that they were even an eighth seed in the stacked West should amaze most people.

The real comparison comes to the rest of the league though and Davis comes out on top. He led the whole league in PER this year. Better then both leading MVP candidates Harden and Curry. He also had a lower usage percentage then most of the top ten players and still averaged over 24 points a game. Davis was also in the top five in scoring, top ten in rebounding and led the league in the blocks. Stats like this prove he is a two-way player and a true MVP-caliber player.

When you look at Davis’ resume, he should win the MVP. He is the best power forward in the league. He is far and away the best man on the Pelicans not to mention the catalyst for their postseason berth. Davis was the most efficient player in the league and is arguably the most well-rounded player in the league. Many of players with a PER over 30 during a single season have won MVP. He should win this year, but the truth is, even if he doesn’t, he will be a candidate for the award for years to come.
Brian Mandel

James_Harden

For individuals, this basketball season may go down as one of the best in history. Here we are in April, season having ended a few days ago, and there are 6 players with legitimate MVP candidacies, whom in any other year may have run away with the title.

Chris Paul had a pretty typical year for him, to the point where now voters expect this out of him rather than recognize his brilliance as the undisputed best pure point guard in the league today. LeBron James did not impress enough on the stat-line, in spite of his 25.3 PPG, 7.4 APG, and 6 PPG. Russell Westbrook only playing 67 games, and many others without Kevin Durant, will cost him a trip to the playoffs and the MVP. Anthony Davis won’t win, even though he lifted the Pelicans into the playoffs for the first time. When Steph Curry is off the floor, Golden State is still a great team.

Yes, James Harden should be the MVP. When I look at value, it is beyond just the stat sheet (although 27.4 points, 7 APG, and 5.7 RPG is nothing to scoff at either). Harden is the only reason that Houston sits as the #2 seed in a stacked Western Conference. With injuries throughout the season to Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverly, Terrence Jones, and Donatas Motiejunas, Harden was forced into shouldering the lead for the Rockets; he responded by leading the league in minutes played all season. Take out Harden, and this team does not come close to making the playoffs, let alone have home court advantage for the first two rounds.

Harden was put into the limelight and had to singularly take on teams for himself, knowing that he had no other weapons to shield him from opposing teams. This especially comes into play on defense, a spot where Harden is known for his struggles in the past. This season, Harden did the beginning of a 180, tying for 5th in the league with 1.9 steals per game.  While he will never be recognized as a defensive force, he easily played his part in a weakened defense. Head into the playoffs now with Howard back lurking and Josh Smith on the wings, and Houston’s defense is strong enough to make opposing defenses sweat, especially when they have to outscore the Beard on offense.

If you take the player off the team, how much of a difference would it make? For me, the Rockets are nothing without Harden. He is the most valuable player for their team, by a landslide. The Rockets performed very well against the rest of the league, especially in one of the toughest schedules in basketball (Do you want to play the Spurs, Mavs, and Grizzlies 4 teams a year? I wouldn’t). For that, James Harden should win one of the most competitive and coveted Most Valuable Player awards in history.
Matt Luppino

Stephen_Curry

I know it is the easy to just say Steph Curry should be the NBA MVP, but he truly earned it. He piloted the Warriors to the top seed in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. This sharp-shooting phenom took the league by storm and should rightfully walk away with the MVP award.

Chris Paul might be the best pure-point guard (and should be the runner-up for the award) but Curry edges in terms of all-around player. He might have only been sixth in scoring but he was also sixth in assists per game. Curry is a true marksman, drilling shots from anywhere on the court. He led all point guards in shooting percentage. He finished third from beyond the arc and led the league when it came to shooting from the free throw line. Not to mention, he finished tied third for true shooting percentage and second in effective field goal percentage. Curry is the most lethal shooter in the NBA, making him invaluable to any team.

Defensively, Curry showed he could mix it up with anyone as well. He ranked fourth in the league with two steals per game. He vastly improved his pick and roll defense this year preventing big men from rolling to the basket and not allowing guards to drive as easily. He upped his perimeter defense as well. There is still plenty of room for Curry to improve on the defensive side of the ball but he definitely has reached the level of being a great two-way player. Anthony Davis was the only player other than Curry to rank in the top 15 for offensive and defensive win shares.

Beyond all of that, Curry is the most important cog in this Golden State machine. Curry played in 80 of the teams’ 82 games this season. The Warriors lost both of those games and neither of those games were against playoff bound teams. When you consider that Golden State only lost 15 games all season that is even more significant. The Warriors need Curry to be an elite team. He has the highest value over replacement rating in the NBA this year. The all-star point guard finished third in the league in total win shares. Breaking that down even further, Curry led the league in win shares per 48 minutes played. Curry earned his team the most win shares per full game played of anyone in the league. Curry might have a great supporting cast but they are nowhere near as effective without their leader.

The man they call the “Baby-Faced Assassin” had an incredible year as the best player on the league’s best team and was the integral part to their success. Curry demonstrated that he not limited to just being an efficient scorer. He can facilitate a team’s offense and provide an impact on defense. Curry’s incredible all-around play should land him his first MVP award, and with the level that he plays at, it might not be his last either.
Chris McGlynn

Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA, Playoffs

The playoffs are finally here in the NBA. Time to wonder who might stop the Cavaliers in the East and who might survive in the West. This is going to be one of the most difficult NBA playoffs to predict in recent memory. There will be some great first round matchups (Clippers vs. Spurs) and some rather lopsided ones (Cavaliers vs. Celtics). It’s time to breakdown the first wave of postseason matchups, this time in the East. These will be a fun batch of games to watch.

Atlanta vs. Brooklyn
Prediction: Hawks in four games
The Nets are a talented team that has yet to figure out how to get that talent to play well together. The Hawks have the best record in the Eastern Conference. The regular season series between these two teams finished four games to none and Atlanta blew Brooklyn out in three of them. The Hawks have an incredible starting five. Their Al Horford and Paul Millsap will give the Nets hell and I do not think they will find an answer for Kyle Korver. Joe Johnson will make some plays but not enough to even get Brooklyn a win against his former team.

Cleveland vs. Boston
Prediction: Cavaliers in five games
Boston comes into the playoffs on a six-game winning streak. That momentum should be enough to earn the Celtics a win somewhere in the early goings of this series. Unfortunately, that’s about all it gets them. Boston has some talented guards that will keep them in games for a little while. Isiah Thomas will find a way to ignite the offense. But defensively, the Celtics have no answer for LeBron James or Kyrie Irving. Cleveland’s two-man wrecking crew will provide enough offense to overpower a Celtics team that tied with New York for 21st in the league for scoring defense. That is not convincing in any way, so the Cavs will roll in just five. (Bonus prediction: Kevin Love will win his first playoff series as an overall non-factor).

Chicago vs. Milwaukee
Prediction: Chicago in six games
I really like Milwaukee, I really do. Just not more than I like Chicago unfortunately. I think the Bucks might have a shot at knocking either the Raptors or the Wizards out of the playoffs but the Bulls are simply too strong. This matchup will feature several low scoring games as both teams rank in the top nine in defensive scoring. The Bucks lack the consistent scoring threat needed to knock off the Bulls. Having rookie Jabari Parker in this series would have been a huge boost. If Derrick Rose comes back playing a consistently above average level, Milwaukee doesn’t really have a shot of pulling off the upset.

Toronto vs. Washington
Prediction: Washington in seven games
This is probably the toughest Eastern Conference series to call. The Raptors looked less than convincing as they geared up for the postseason. Since April began, Toronto lost to Brooklyn once and Boston twice and narrowly defeated Orlando and Miami. None of those teams had records above .500 either. Washington is hard to figure out as well. The Wizards in their last four games got crushed by the Nets before beating Atlanta. They then went on to lose in overtime to the Pacers and Cavs. It is difficult to get a sense for how good either of these teams are. With all of that inconsistency, I think the series will go to seven games with a lot of momentum shifting back and forth. In the end, I think John Wall will be the x-factor giving the Wizards the edge.

Major League Baseball has laid out the blueprint

Chris McGlynn Baseball, Basketball, Football, Hockey, MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, Social Issues ,

So now the question is, when does everyone else start catching up? Major League Baseball suspended four different pitchers in the past 2-plus weeks for use of a steroid called stanozolol. Popular among body builders, the drug reportedly helps athletes lose fat while maintaining lean body mass. Ervin Santana, David Rollins, Arodys Vizcaino and Jenrry Mejia all tested positive for the steroid under the new MLB anti-doping policy. The league also announced they will be investigating the repeated appearance of the drug, using the 2013 Biogenesis investigation as a model. Clearly, MLB has made major strides in its handling of steroid usage and cases showing an initiative to clean up the league.

Despite the obvious success MLB has seen since the implementation of the new system, other professional sporting leagues have yet to follow. The NFL has some basic steroid testing in place but not to the full extent possible. The NBA and NHL have relatively weak systems that do not pose much of a threat to players who are using these drugs. Each of them have clearly outlined systems but none of them are being enforced anywhere close to as heavily. Let’s go through some basic comparisons.

Roger_Goodell

NFL
The NFL is probably next in line behind MLB but they are still fairly far behind. Players are subjected to random drug testing during the season. If a player were to test positive for steroids, HGH or stimulants, they would immediately receive a 4-game suspension. On a second offense, players are suspended for ten games and a third offense results in a minimum two-year ban from the league and all related activity. Players have to apply for reinstatement as well following the minimum two years. If a player tests positive for stimulants during the offseason, they are referred to the league substance abuse program. The NFL also does a relatively good job of enforcing the drug policy, with roughly 100 players suspended since 2010. The HGH testing is new for the league though, which shows they are still conscious that the policy can be tweaked and improved.

Adam_Silver

NBA
The NBA seems to have a solid program in place. NBA players are subjected to a reasonable number of tests per season with four random tests during the course of the league year. Players can even be tested on reasonable cause, determined by a third-party expert. However, the penalties are pretty minor with a first offense resulting in only a ten game suspension. A second offense means the player only earns a 25-game ban and a third offense results in a yearlong ban. A fourth offense would result in a permanent ban from the league. That is all well and good, except when you look at the numbers. The NBA has suspended exactly three players since 2010 for violating the NBA drug policy. That includes drugs of abuse and other illegal substances outside of steroids. Those numbers are not too high when you compare them to anywhere else.

Gary_Bettman

NHL
Hockey, like basketball, has never really gripped the nation with a major drug scandal. The NHL does a fairly good job of testing as many players as possible. Each player is subjected to two unannounced drug tests per season and one of them must be a team-wide test. The number of tests is on the smaller side unfortunately but the punishment is better than the NBA and probably on par with the NFL. A first-time offender receives a 20 game suspension, a second offense results in a 60-game suspension and a third offense is a permanent suspension. Like the NFL, players can apply for reinstatement after the minimum two years are served. The league does not crack down too much on players. They have only suspended three players under the new performance enhancing drug policy, but it was only launched last year.

Rob_Manfred

MLB
It is rare that I think baseball is truly way ahead of the curve when it comes to the major sports in the United States, but for steroid testing, it isn’t even close. Every year at the start of spring training, each player is subjected to a urine and blood test. The league then randomly chooses 3,200 urine and 260 blood tests of random players throughout the course of the season to catch those who begin doping following the spring training tests. The league also selects certain urine tests to undergo carbon isotope ratio mass spectrometry analysis. MLB, like the NBA allows reasonable cause testing, something the NFL and NHL have not yet implemented as far as I could find in the bylaws. MLB is also much harsher with its punishments. The league hands out an 80-game suspension following a first offense and a season-long suspension after a second offense. A third offense will result in a permanent ban with a minimum of two years required before a player can request reinstatement. MLB has suspended 19 players since May of 2012 and that doesn’t include 5 minor leaguers as well.

Overall, there is still clearly cheating in American sports due to performance enhancing drugs. Baseball has taken the right initiative with the intensive measures used in its testing. The key thing that MLB has that other sports desperately lack is the public shame that comes with steroid use. Dozens of players have been held out of the Hall of Fame due to their checkered past with steroids. It creates a major stigma for the player and MLB is continuing to enforce the image that steroids make you a cheater. The NFL does not do that, often refraining from using the word steroids, opting instead to refer to them as performance enhancing drugs. The idea is still the same, but the stigma that comes with being called a steroid user is just not there. The NBA’s and NHL’s rate of suspending players is a joke.

And none of this seems to be a problem for them. According to an article from ESPN, NBA general counsel, Rick Buchanan, was quoted saying, “We think we have a program that is as good as any other in pro sports.” That is the underlying issue. No one is putting enough pressure on these other leagues to make a change. Fans agonized over MLB’s faulty system until they made some major improvements, and now the league has easily the best anti-doping program of any American sport. We might all like to think that these leagues will strive for change on their own, but without a little push from their fans, there is no chance that the NBA, NFL or NHL make the necessary moves to truly fight steroid use in American sports.

Salvaging the Wolves

Chris McGlynn Basketball, Draft, Free Agency, NBA , , ,

The Minnesota Timberwolves are bad. That’s it. Plain and simple. This team is currently tied with the hapless Knicks for the worst record in the NBA with just two games to go in the season. Obviously, the Timberwolves do not have much left to play for this season. That doesn’t mean that these games don’t mean something for the players. In a lot of ways, this is a tryout to see who might be on the team next year. It also could help the Minnesota front office figure out what to do with some of the veterans on the team. Guys like Ricky Rubio, Nikola Peckovic and Kevin Martin have all had good runs with the team but none of them have really lived up to the money they are paid. With some of the guys they have rising through the ranks, it might be time for the Wolves to start looking elsewhere.

Kevin_Martin

Kevin Martin, Shooting Guard
Age: 32
Decision: Sell
Kevin Martin has shown the ability to light up the scoreboard and be a great offensive piece for Minnesota. However, with his age and overall ineffectiveness shooting the basketball, his value significantly drops for this rebuilding team. Martin has shot only 42.3 percent from the field this season. He also provides little when it comes to assists and rebounds on a night-to-night basis. The other major concern for Martin is his health. He only has appeared in 38 games this year, marking the fifth time in his career that Martin has been unable to play in more than 51 games. He simply is not a player Minnesota can consistently rely on. He should be moved, maybe in a deal with the next player on this list.

Ricky_Rubio

Ricky Rubio, Point Guard
Age: 24
Decision: Sell
Despite being one of the most promising point guards when he entered the league four years ago, Ricky Rubio has never really been able to convert the potential into talent. Entering his fourth year in the NBA, Rubio showed signs of being ready to take a big step. Instead, he was injured once again and has spent another injury-riddled season mostly on the bench. The Timberwolves are running out of time to wait on him to develop as well. In his only season where he played a full slate of games, Rubio failed to average more than ten points per game and shot a mediocre 38 percent from the field. And then here’s a scary stat, that was a career-high for Rubio when it comes to shooting percentage. Meanwhile, rookie point guard Zach LaVine has caught fire recently. The athletic freak has averaged 19 points, 5 assists and 5 rebounds on 44.5 percent shooting over the past 10 games. It looks like Minnesota might already have Rubio’s replacement in house.

Nikola_Pekovic

Nikola Pekovic, Center
Age: 29
Decision: Sell
While he might be one of their best offensive assets but with one of the top picks in this year’s draft, the Timberwolves can replace Nikola Pekovic. Through five years in the NBA, Pekovic has never played more than 65 games in one season. He shot a career worst 42.4 percent from the field and his season ended very early due to an Achilles injury. The Wolves also owe Pekovic roughly $12 million each of the next three seasons. That’s a lot to be paying for a player who is not on the court very often. He also saw his scoring drop to the lowest since his rookie year and his rebounding totals dip to the lowest since 2011. Overall, Pek is not really improving at this point in his career. With either Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns likely set to wear a Timberwolves jersey next season, Pekovic could be expendable.

Kevin Garnett

Kevin Garnett, Power Forward
Age: 38
Decision: Keep
Even though he is going to be 39 years old next season, Kevin Garnett provides some value for this young Timberwolves team. He doesn’t do a ton on the court anymore when it comes to converting on the court but when he does play, Garnett has been fairly effective. He is more suited as a sixth man or role player next year but after shooting 58 percent from the floor and providing almost eight points per game in limited minutes since returning to Minnesota, he has made a difference. Plus, his veteran leadership and championship experience are invaluable. Garnett can bring a bit of fire to this team and improve them from a mental aspect. He might not be worth the $12 million price tag he has at the moment, but bringing him back would be a smart move.

The Timberwolves are going to look like a very different team next year pretty much no matter what. Gary Neal and Garnett are set to be free agents and if Chase Budinger opts out this club would have some holes to fix. With what is shaping up to be a fairly strong draft class, trading away some of the veterans for a couple of middle of the order draft picks could be a great way for Minnesota to restart and rebuild.