NBA

How good is Andrew Wiggins?

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA , , ,

People have been talking all season about how good Andrew Wiggins has been in his rookie year. The kid as essentially run away with the NBA Rookie of the Year award. Wiggins has been the bright spot in a dismal season for the Minnesota Timberwolves. The real question is, is Wiggins really a dominant force, or is he just the favorite by default.

This has been a very weak rookie class so far. Only five players are averaging more than ten points per contest this season. Wiggins is the only one average more than 12 with his 16.7 points per game. (Jabari Parker was over 12 a night prior to being injured this season). Wiggins also ranks fifth among qualified rookies in rebounds per game this season. He also sits fifth in terms of steals per contest and sixth in rejections. Wiggins is shaping himself into a very capable all-around player.

One major knock against Wiggins despite all of his talent is his underwhelming assist-to-turnover ratio. He may only be a small forward, but with the amount of time Wiggins spends on the ball, (22.1% usage rating) it would be nice to see Wiggins as a distributor. He is one of only a few players that owns a ratio under 1 sitting at 0.91 assists for every turnover. In fact, he is the only small forward to play 30 minutes or more per game yet still post a ratio under one.

The kid out of Kansas is still young though and has a long time to develop that side of his game. It really should not be much of a concern. The overall athleticism he exudes though is tantalizing for anyone with interest in the Wolves. It might seem harsh to judge the kid on what he has done through just one season but I am curious to see how he stacks up with some of the other top picks in the past several years.

Already, Wiggins is in elite company. Of the top picks since 2008, five out of six have been named All-stars. Those players include Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, John Wall, Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis. The only one yet to live up his billing as the top pick is Wiggins’ teammate, Anthony Bennett. It is not really fair to compare Wiggins to the last small forward drafted first overall either, seeing as that was LeBron James. However, there are a couple of other star small forwards we can compare this budding superstar.

Carmelo Anthony was taken in the same draft as James. His numbers put up against Wiggins’ are superior although not by much. Anthony averaged 21 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal and 0.5 blocks per outing as a rookie playing for the Denver Nuggets. However, he also posted an assist-to-turnover ratio that was under one. Wiggins actually trumps Melo in shooting percentage though with 43.6 compared to 42.3.

Wiggins also stacks up pretty comparably with Kevin Durant’s rookie season. Obviously, the huge discrepancy in height makes this comparison a little tough but Durant averaged 20 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1 steal and 1 block per game. Durant has the edge in the scoring department but once again, Wiggins is shooting at a higher percentage, especially from behind the arc. Durant posted a 28.8 percent success rate from three his rookie year; meanwhile, Wiggins has drained 32.5 percent of his takes. Once again, Durant had an assist-to-turnover ratio below one.

The best comparison for Wiggins though might be to a former Boston legend. Not many others have played better than Paul Pierce over the course of his career. Pierce is also the same style player as Wiggins, switching between a two-guard and a winger. Pierce had a very similar stat line to Wiggins when he first began playing for the Celtics back in 1999. Pierce tallied 16.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.75 steals and 1 block a night, however only in 48 games. Those are not too far off from Wiggins is doing now and Pierce posted an assist-to-turnover ratio of almost exactly one. If this means that Wiggins is destined to average 21, 6 and 4, I think fans in Minnesota will be more than content with that.

While it looks like he is running away with this years’ award, keep in mind that Wiggins still has a lot of growing to do before he can be considered an elite player. However, with him only at 19 and oozing with potential I don’t think the growth will be that hard to come by. Wiggins has the potential to be a perennial All-star in this league and maybe even make Minnesota competitive in a couple of years. With Wiggins at the center of a young core, it seems like the Wolves are off to a good start. His presence certainly makes it easier to forget the absence of certain Love Minnesota used to have.

George needs to be back on the court for Indiana

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA ,

Paul George needs to come back to the Pacers’ as soon as he is healthy enough to do so. The notion that he could disrupt the team’s chemistry is laughable. There will probably be a slight adjustment period where George acclimates himself to playing in the NBA again but that shouldn’t take too long. The sooner George returns the better for both Indiana’s hopes of making the playoffs and making some noise when they get there.

The Pacers currently sit seventh in the Eastern Conference, holding tiebreakers over both the Heat and the Celtics. Obviously, the race is very tight and with those three teams fighting over two playoff spots, it is still entirely conceivable that the Pacers miss the postseason altogether. This is the first part of where having George back is a necessity. He is the unquestioned leader of this Indiana squad and even if he has yet to suit up for them this year, he will still fill a very notable void. Not to mention that George will be a much-welcomed replacement to Solomon Hill in the starting lineup.

Statistically, George represents an upgrade in every facet of the word. George, in his career, has a better career shooting, three-point shooting, free throw shooting, rebounding, assisting, stealing, blocking and scoring average than Hill has this season. That is an across the board improvement on both offense and defense. George will instantly make this team better, even if he is a little rusty at first and leads to some small adjustments in the Pacers’ play.

From a team perspective as well, the two-time all-star will provide an immediate boost in some key areas. Indiana has struggled all year to score, ranking as the 25th best scoring team in the league. Their leading scorer right now is George Hill, with only 15 point per contest and he has only appeared in 27 games anyway. The next highest is Rodney Stuckey, who is averaging under 14 point a night. George over his last two season tallied roughly 19.5 points per game. He will provide an immediate injection of offense into a team struggling to make baskets. Additionally, the Pacers have been a below average three-point shooting team in George’s absence. His 36 percent career shooting percentage from beyond the arc should provide a boost as well. George is also one of the best on ball defenders in the NBA. The small forward clocked in with the most defensive win shares in 2013 and the second most in 2014, according to Basketball Reference.

Those added benefits should carry Indiana to a playoff berth. Even without George, the Pacers could likely make it to postseason but if he is not on the court, then they have no shot of legitimately competing. I mentioned before that George is the unquestioned leader of this team. He also turns up his level of play come playoff time. During Indiana’s run last season to the Eastern Conference Finals, George carried the team. He posted phenomenal numbers, averaging over 22 points, 7 rebounds and 2 steals per game while draining more than 40 percent of his shots from three-point territory. Having a player who understands what is at stake and raises his game when the postseason roles around is invaluable.

If George is playing at full strength come the playoffs, it becomes a lot harder to count the Pacers out. If they were to matchup with Toronto or even Cleveland, it is not unconceivable that Indiana could find a way to win. They have the type of team that can wear you out over the course of a series and if they manage to push it to six or seven games, I would definitely pick the Pacers to win. Another little nugget that should convince you of how dangerous Indiana might be with a healthy George in the postseason is their record in the division. The Pacers actually have the best in division record for anyone playing in the Central region. At 7-5, Indiana ranks higher than Cleveland, Chicago, Milwaukee and Detroit. Those first three teams all sit ahead of Indiana in the standings and will be part of the playoff field.

It is not guaranteed that George will immediately return to the same level he played at before his injury. But if there is even a possibility he might and he is healthy enough to be in the lineup, then Frank Vogel would be crazy to hold him out. The Pacers are a much better team when George is on the court and if he can play, Indiana might just find itself back in the Eastern Conference Finals once again.

Some Love lost in Cleveland

Chris McGlynn Basketball, Free Agency, NBA , , , , ,

The Cleveland Cavaliers have returned to being one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this year with LeBron James’ return home. However, this team has its fair share of deficiencies, starting with how players fit together on the floor. It is no secret that Kevin Love has had a tough year. He has been a decent contributor but not at the level that the Cavs thought he would play when they acquired him last summer.

Love is posting career lows as a starter in attempts per game and makes per game this year. His shooting percentage is at its worst mark in a season where Love has started at least 20 games. His rebound average is the lowest it has been since his rookie year. On top of all of that, Love’s scoring has dipped by almost ten points this season. He clearly does not fit with the Cavaliers. Realistically, Love will likely leave Cleveland at the end of the season with his contract set to expire. Here are the best places that Love could land next offseason.

Minnesota Timberwolves: This would be the icing on the cake for the T-Wolves. Getting Love back and hanging on to Wiggins. Essentially, the Cavaliers would have traded for the 3-time All-star in exchange for clearing Anthony Bennett of the books. This is not the most likely scenario, as Minnesota will probably be looking elsewhere to spend their money. With a ton of youth, the Wolves could look to sign a veteran power forward instead. Either way, the Wolves have a need at the position and Love would certainly fit their system. However, Minnesota ranks as the worst defensive team in the league. Love, who is primarily an offense first player, would be benefit from playing elsewhere.

New Orleans Pelicans: With Omar Asik’s contract about to expire, he could become expendable. Enter Love and suddenly, the Pelicans have one of the best duos in basketball in their frontcourt. Anthony Davis and Love teamed up together could be scary. Love would also assuredly benefit from Davis’ shot blocking presence, negated much of his poor play defensively. Unfortunately, Love could run into the same problem that he has in Cleveland. There would be a lot of mouths to feed in New Orleans with Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, Jrue Holiday, Davis and Love all wanting high volume touches.

Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks are one of the best defensive squads in basketball and with Larry Sanders unlikely to return, the Bucks could use a new body in their frontcourt. Love’s addition to Milwaukee could pose some problems with Jabari Parker’s return next season and Giannis Antetokounmpo already stationed at small forward. Love would be able to take over as a lead scorer on this team though as the Bucks have zero front court players scoring more than ten points per game. Plus, with Milwaukee ranking at 25th in rebounds per night, adding Love would be a welcome addition.

Indiana Pacers: The odds that this one happens might be the highest of any team. It makes a lot of sense to me. Love is a great scorer and can play alongside one other top scorer in Paul George. He would join a team that is one of the best defensively in the league, which is a perfect fit for Love. On top of that, he would play alongside a great rim protector in Roy Hibbert and an excellent distributor in George Hill. And no one else on the Pacers requires a ton of touches except for George, which creates a nice opening for Love to come in and be an elite scorer. This moves when it is broken down makes a ton of sense and would propel Indiana into the conversation of best team in the East if George returns the same.

Love might return to Cleveland because he wants a shot at a championship but he would be smart to walk away. This is not the best spot for him and he would benefit tremendously playing elsewhere. It will be an interesting year in free agency and teams would likely be willing to spend a year in biting the bullet of the luxury tax knowing that the 2016 offseason will provide a massive boost to the cap. Getting a top offense weapon like Love in a weaker offseason will be a smart move for an offensive needy team. Now it just remains to be seen who will make a run for the former UCLA product.

Comparing college big men

Chris McGlynn Basketball, Draft, NBA, NCAAM , ,

The NBA Draft is a long way off but there is already plenty of buzz surrounding the top pick. More specifically, many college and professional basketball fans alike want to know who is going to be the first selection in the 2015 draft. There are a couple of talented athletes expected to hear their names called early on in the draft. The talk of number one though has been mostly eaten up by Duke center Jahlil Okafor and Kentucky center Karl-Anthony Towns. Both of these highly recruited freshmen are expected to make the jump to the NBA following the close of the college season. One of them could very well be hoisting a national championship trophy come April but that a discussion for another blog post. I want to compare these two centers and come to a conclusion of which one of them should be selected first.

With how well both Okafor and Towns have played, both look NBA ready. Each, in his own right, is full of potential. They have shown that they truly look like men among boys playing against other college players. Comparing these two via statistics can be a little tricky though due to the wide gap in average minutes played per night. However, I will calculate them per 36 minutes (roughly what an NBA starter plays every night) to level the playing field. It should be noted though, right away, that Towns plays on 20 minutes per game, while Okafor plays 31.

Both players have been incredibly efficient this season. Okafor has hit an unreal 66.5 percent of his shots this season while attempting 11 shots per game. Towns, despite taking 5 fewer shots per game, is only hitting 55.3 percent of his attempts so far this season. Those stats are unaffected by the amount of time players spend on the floor each night. On top of that, Okafor matches up with much better than Towns does. The Duke center has played against 7 ranked opponents, including 6 against the top 15. Towns has only played four games against ranked teams, but 3 of them were against top 6 programs. However, Towns is the far superior free throw shooter, knocking down 79 percent of his shots at the line, compared to Okafor’s 54 percent conversion rate.

Examining the per 36 minutes stats turned out to be an interesting comparison. Towns averages 16.5 points while Okafor tallies 21.3 points per 36 minutes of action. That is a pretty large gap in points per night translated to a theoretical NBA level. Granted, it is not exactly fair to assume that both players will produce at the NBA level; in terms of what they are capable of now as scorers, Okafor has a clear upper hand. Both kids are above average rebounders as well. Towns snags 11.4 boards per 36 minutes while Okafor reels in 11.2.

Defensively, Towns clearly has the edge. Okafor only averages 1.62 blocks per 36 minutes, which is a nice number. However, Towns swats roughly 4.26 shots per 36 minutes of play, blowing away Okafor’s numbers. Towns clearly has immense value as a defensive centerpiece, meanwhile Okafor has shown that he has a lot of work to do defending in the paint. That statement is almost funny when you consider that they are the same height but Okafor actually outweighs Towns by about 20 pounds.

So here is my assessment on both. Okafor is an elite offensive big man. He hits an absurd percentage of his shots and scores at a high level. He cleans up the boards well, using his frame to box out opponents for rebounds. He needs to improve defensively and his free throw shooting. He is not a liability by any means but his play as the man in the middle will need to step up at the NBA level. As for the free throw shooting, we’ve seen what teams have done with guys like Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan, who are notoriously poor from the line.

For Towns, there is a lot of athleticism that can be turned into offensive prowess. He has not reached the point yet where he is a top scorer. He also has proven to be a good rebounder, capable of using his size to shield the opposition from the ball. On the defensive end of the floor though, Towns is a force to be reckoned with. His skills as a rim protector make him invaluable to a lot of teams at the next level. Towns knows how to position himself to force opponents to put up difficult shots and does an excellent job of contesting them as they are released. His impressive free throw shooting also keeps him from being the same liability Okafor could be at the next level.

Who to pick? This is a tough call. Okafor is much more pro-ready. Towns is slightly more of a project, but likely has more potential. His athleticism gives him the opportunity to morph into another Kentucky product that came before him, Anthony Davis. I am not saying he will reach that level, but I do believe he has that potential. The concerns for me are the low number of minutes leaving what Towns can do in more minutes a major question mark. Okafor also has the bonus playing more games against better opponents, erasing a lot of the questions that still remain for Towns. The Duke big man has also demonstrated a type of maturity that his Kentucky counterpart has yet to unlock. Either way, I am almost certain you will be hearing one of these two names called when Adam Silver walks to the podium this June. If I had to make a pick, I am likely going with Okafor. As a GM, you cannot argue with production, and he certainly has plenty of that.

Future in question for D-Rose and the Bulls

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA ,

In the 2012 playoffs, he went down with a torn ACL in his left knee. After missing the 2012-2013 season, he returned to play the opening month of the 2013-2014 season, before tearing his meniscus in his right knee. The long road back resulted in him playing on and off through the beginning of the 2014-2015 season. He finally seemed to be hitting his stride and the injuries concerns were starting to fade. Then last night Derrick Rose had tragedy strike again, this time in the form of a torn right meniscus again.

Now four years removed from his stellar MVP campaign in 2011, Rose has suffered three devastating injuries. Each time he has rehabbed to come back and make his return, only to find that his body once again betrayed him. Rose has shown no indication that this is going to end his career, just simply derail it temporarily. As good as Rose has been for the Bulls, for his own sake, he should walk away before he suffers any more injuries.

The Chicago-native has been incapable of staying healthy. Even before his first major knee surgery, Rose only managed 40 games between the regular and postseason in 2012-2013. The following year, Rose returned for 10 appearances before blowing out his knee a second time. Before this premature ending to his season, Rose only played in 46 of the team’s 57 games. Including the playoffs, the Bulls’ point guard has missed 219 games in the past four years. That is an average of 55 games per year. If you can only count on a player being available for a third of the season, he is no long worth it for the team and it is really time for the player to walk away.

Additionally, Rose has also seen his production drastically drop. In the two seasons before his injuries started, Rose averaged about 23 points, 7 plus assists and 4 rebounds per night. In the two hobbled seasons since he tore his ACL, Rose’s production dropped to 17.1 points, 4.7 assists and 3.2 rebounds per contest. Those are still efficient numbers, but it is clear how much of a toll the injuries are taking on Rose’s ability to compete at an elite level. His number of minutes also took a dip, dropping from 37 to 31 minutes per game. He also has seen his ability to shoot effectively leave him. Rose has only hit 38.1 percent of his attempts since the beginning of 2013. For his sake, Rose needs to think about moving on.

We are seeing a player decline right before our eyes. He is taking the route of Brandon Roy and Greg Oden before him. They all have unbelievable amounts of talent but they are unable to stay on the court consistently enough to make a real impact. For the Bulls from a financial standpoint, they are losing big time. Despite only playing 41 percent of his regular season games in the past three years, Chicago has paid Rose roughly $53 million in that time span according to Spotrac. It is tough to shame the Bulls for signing D-Rose to the contract that they did but now it is clearly proven to be a bad deal for them.

The reality is thought, that if Rose does not retire, Chicago has no choice but to leave him on the roster. If the team released Rose after this year, it would count as $21 million in dead cap money. Let me make something clear, I do not want to see Derrick Rose retire as a sports fan. I want to see that budding superstar we all witnessed in 2011 return to terrorizing the league, but let’s face it, we are never going to see that again. Rose is too hindered by the state of his knees to play at an MVP caliber again. I already feel so bad for the 26-year old with everything he has had to battle through to even reach this point, but I cannot bear to watch him go through it all again. I wish there was another way to solve the problem but Rose needs to call it quits. He is never going to regain that form he once had. He has sacrificed his body enough for his team. Giving it a rest now might not be what I want as a basketball fan, but as outside observer putting my love sports aside, I want Rose to get a break. He needs it more than anyone else.