NFL Preseason Award Predictions

September 8, 2016September 9, 2016 Chris McGlynn Football, NFL NFL awards, NFL Kickoff, Russell Wilson

It’s that time of year again. Where we can all pretend to being doing work while actually setting our fantasy football lineups. The NFL season is about to kickoff.

This time of year also means it is time for me to (probably incorrectly) predict the 2016 NFL award winners. Prepare for a couple of dark horse candidates.

NCAA Football: National Championship-Ohio State vs Oregon — Elliott was the highest drafted running back since Trent Richardson in 2012. (*Wikimedia Commons)*

Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Ezekiel Elliott, Running Back, Dallas
Let’s start with an easier one. Put the best running back from the 2016 draft class behind arguably the best offensive line in the league and he is bound to be successful. Tony Romo’s injury probably helps Ezekiel Elliott’s chances even more as he will likely be leaned on more than if Romo was on the field. This kid might end up with 1,800 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns, as a rookie.

Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Xavien Howard, Cornerback, Miami
This might be a bit of a headscratcher for some, but Xavien Howard is in the best position to make his presence felt early and often. Starting alongside Byron Maxwell, Howard likely won’t draw the top receiver on each team, but he will be on the field to make plays. Joey Bosa would have been a likely candidate here, but well, I’m sure you know by now…

Offensive Player of the Year:
Todd Gurley, Running Back, Los Angeles
Le’Veon Bell continues to miss out on this award with his suspensions, which opens the door for the second year bruiser, Todd Gurley. He won’t be a huge asset in the passing game, but he will likely carry the Rams offense for most of the 2016 season. Case Kennum, Sean Mannion and Jared Goff probably won’t be lighting up the score board, so expect Gurley to have a monster season.

Mack is the only player in NFL history to be named All-Pro at two different positions. (*Wikimedia Commons)*

Defensive Player of the Year:
Khalil Mack, Defensive End, Oakland
J.J. Watt will likely start the season for Houston, but he is not going to be at full strength coming off surgery. That means Khalil Mack gets his shot at taking the award. Mack had 15 sacks and 77 tackles in just his second year as a pro in 2015. He has become a disruptive force in the NFL and moves fluidly between the defensive line and linebacking core. Oakland has also added some other pieces around Mack in the form of Sean Smith and Bruce Irvin, which means he will have even more opportunities to make explosive plays. If Mack manages to take another step forward in his development, he could be threatening some records this year.

Comeback Player of the Year:
Jamaal Charles, Running Back, Kansas City
This is definitely a risky pick. Jamaal Charles will turn 30 in December and he is coming off his second major knee injury of his career. However, Charles has never more than 285 carries in a season and is not a volume touch player. He is very effective when he gets the ball, averaging 5.5 yards per carry in his career. Look for Charles to hit the 1,000 yard rushing mark and score at least 10 total touchdowns in 2016.

Coach of the Year:
Andy Reid, Kansas City
Another member of the Chiefs’ organization taking an award. Kansas City has been a solid team for the last few years, but this year, Andy Reid has his team set to win the division and possibly earn a buy into the divisional round of the playoffs. A strong defense and a reliable running game is how Reid has built this team, and it will carry them to a division title and another playoff appearance.

Most Valuable Player:
Russell Wilson, Quarterback, Seattle
Saving the best for last. At this point, the MVP award just goes to a quarterback. Adrian Peterson is the only non-quarterback in the past 10 years to win the award and he rushed for over 2,000 yards that season. In Seattle, the ground game is as uncertain as it has maybe ever been and Russell Wilson just continues to grow as a passer. In 2015, he tossed 34 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions and threw for over 4,000 yards. That doesn’t include anything he did with his legs either. Wilson accomplished all of that with a porous offensive line that got better this offseason. Look for the former third round pick to snag his first MVP award this year.

Are Rookie Quarterbacks Set up to Fail?

August 25, 2016August 25, 2016 Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NFL

I don’t know if it is all rookie quarterbacks. After all, every great NFL quarterback was a rookie once. However, it seems that many of these young signal callers leave college with tons of potential only to crash and burn in the pros.

Below is a list of the quarterbacks drafted in the first round since the year 2000.

Chad Pennington, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, J.P Losman, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christain Ponder, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, E.J Manuel, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch.

Jared Goff, this year’s first overall pick, has struggled heavily this preseason. (*Wikimedia Commons)*

There are some really good quarterbacks in that group. However, there are several others that flamed out or turned out to be duds. It’s very hit or miss.

I chose to focus on the first round only because there are only two quarterbacks that weren’t chosen in the first round, but started their rookie year currently in the league (Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson).

Part of the reason is that these players come into situations where the team is not very good if they are spending a first round pick on a quarterback. A weak supporting cast can often cause these quarterbacks to struggle right out of the gate. There are several examples of this one. David Carr spent most of his career being battered behind an awful offensive line. Joey Harrington joined a talent-deprived team in Detroit on both sides of the ball.

The bigger reason though is that most of these quarterbacks end up not being pro ready, yet having to play right away because the team views them as the best option. The players who are in italics on the list above all played in at least 12 games during their rookie seasons. These young signal callers do not have the time to learn the intricate playbook and fully acclimate themselves to the speed of the NFL more often than not. This rushed development hinders the growth process in a young quarterback, which is arguably the most hyper-specific of an position in the league.

Very few of these kids get what I will call the Aaron Rodgers treatment. There is no doubt that Rodgers is supremely talented, but his three years of sitting behind Brett Favre paid off in a big way with his capability to understand and command the offense from the first day he took the starting job. Even Eli Manning sat for half a season behind Kurt Warner before taking the reigns. You could probably have given J.P Losman five years to learn on the bench and he still would have been terrible, but a few years of development might have really changed the careers of guys like Mark Sanchez or E.J. Manuel.

Fewer quarterbacks are getting the chance to learn from the bench first. From 2000 to 2007, only seven of the 21 quarterbacks taken in the first round played 12 or more games during their rookie season. From 2008 to 2015, 14 of the 20 quarterbacks selected in the first round played at least games during their rookie season. That might help explain why it seems like the league is burning through quarterbacks at an incredible rate.

Being a first round selection really increases your odds of getting a big paycheck and starting for a team. It does not always correlate to success though.

Taking a look around the NFL, of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the league, 21 of them were first round selections (I’m not counting Goff here, as rumor has it Case Keenum will start in Los Angeles.) Four of them were second rounders, Wilson is the lone third round pick with a starting job. Fourth rounder Kirk Cousins is alone as well. No one starting now came from the fifth round but Tyrod Taylor and Tom Brady were sixth round selections. Ryan Fitzpatrick came from the seventh, while Tony Romo and Keenum were not drafted at all.

Ben_Roethlisberger — Roethlisberger is one of the most successful rookie quarterbacks of all-time, going 13-0 in games he started during the regular season. *(Wikimedia Commons)*

However, of those 32 guys, only 18 of them are entering their third consecutive year of being the starter for the team they are currently on. It just goes to show how much turnover there is in a three-year span at the quarterback position. There are some exceptions in the form of Brady, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers, but on the whole, these quarterbacks don’t have much job security. This also speaks to the lack of patience NFL teams now have to develop a quarterback before just throwing him onto the field. The level of turnover, especially in recent years, has been through the roof.

The reality is that there is no best way to groom young quarterbacks. However, it seems that when you try to force the majority of them to play during their first year, it becomes a very hit or miss process. For every Cam Newton, you also get a JaMarcus Russell.

This year might break the recent trend though, as none of the current rookies seem slated to start under center early in the season. Maybe, just maybe, that will give them a fighting chance to make it in this league.

Goodell’s continued power struggle

August 21, 2016 Chris McGlynn NFL NFL, NFLPA, PEDs, Roger Goodell

Football is finally back, more or less, and with it has come a brand new controversy involving a number of NFL players. While what they are being accused of is not as stupid as Ryan Lotche’s situation, it still is not a good look for the players or the league.

Four players, James Harrison, Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers and Mike Neal, all are facing allegations of PED use stemming from a report by the now-defunct Al Jazeera America. The NFL decided they wanted to look into the issue, but the players seemed less than pleased to comply, maintaining that nothing had happened. Much of the report’s backing faded once the doctor at the heart of it recanted his statements.

However, the league still is insisting on meeting with the players, but the players all seemed unwilling to do so. Naturally, Roger Goodell responded by threatening to suspend the players.

No, seriously he did. Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, which runs through the 2020 season, Goodell has the power to act as judge, jury and executioner. Sounds unfair right? Well don’t feel too bad for the players.

This is their fault. Aaron Rodgers pointed out this week that the players have no one to blame but themselves for the amount of power Goodell has. They focused heavily on fewer padded practices and more mandatory days off to prevent injury during the 2011 negotiations. As a result, the league got to push a more stringent agenda regarding the powers of the league office and most notably Goodell.

The NFLPA is reportedly urging all of these players to take a stand against the NFL in this case to challenge Goodell’s power. However, it sounds like Peppers, Matthews and Harrison are all going to meet with the NFL in the coming days. Neal will not though as he is currently a free agent and theoretically has nothing to lose. The latest is that the NFLPA wants Neal to sue the league over the issue. There is no word on what Neal thinks of that plan yet.

New_York_Giants_vs_Green_Bay_Packers — Mike Neal (far right) played most recently for the Green Bay Packers, along side the also accused Clay Matthews. (*Wikimedia Commons)*

On the surface, it seems like the players truly have nothing to lose in meeting with the NFL if they have not taken PEDs. They would have their names cleared and avoid a possible suspension. However, this goes much deeper than that. It seems that a number of players, especially Harrison, are fed up with the way that Goodell wields his power. Taking a stand would be a point of pride in acting as if the allegations were beneath you and a challenge to the authority of Goodell.

Unfortunately, after the results of Deflategate, where Tom Brady ultimately will have to serve his four game suspension, players have seen just how far Goodell and the league office are willing to go to maintain this power struggle. It takes a lot of investment to oppose the NFL on an issue like this because of the potential length of the proceedings. Not to mention the NFL’s persistence. We all thought Deflategate was as good as dead when Brady avoided suspension last season, only to find that the league managed to slap him with it this year instead.

The underlying point is that this will continue to be an issue until after the 2020 season, when the CBA is renegotiated. The scary thing is, with how intense the league has been about maintaining absolute control in player discipline, you have to wonder how willing it might be to budge. And if that is the case, we could be looking at another NFL lockout at the start of the decade. The NFLPA is not willing to back down from this fight and continues to look to find ways to challenge this standard even before the CBA is up.

This will be the main topic of those negotiations and you can bet those arguments are going to be very heated.

Suck it up NFL Quarterbacks

June 24, 2016 Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, Free Agency, NFL

This has been the offseason of the whiny quarterback in the NFL. Several quarterbacks either aren’t happy with the current situation they find themselves in on their roster or aren’t pleased with the offers they’ve received in free agency.

I’m talking mostly about Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Nick Foles for the most part, although Colin Kaepernick might also be in the mix. He seems to have checked his ego though and let his bank account swell.

Foles hasn’t been too bad either, but he isn’t being a good team player. Coming off one of the worst seasons a quarterback has had in the league in sometime as a mostly starting option, the Rams made the move to find Foles’ replacement or future replacement in this year’s draft. Los Angeles drafted Jared Goff after some maneuvering up to the number one pick. There were rumors that Case Keenum was favored to start over Foles before Goff even arrived on scene.

Now Foles appears to be pouting about his situation. He skipped voluntary workouts for the team in protest of Goff’s selection. Rumor has it that the Rams are looking to trade him now. The Cardinals, Jets and 49ers have all been linked as potential trade partners.

Sam Bradford — Bradford had the 3rd-worst Total QBR in the league last season. (*Wikimedia Commons)*

While Foles is clearly unhappy and looking for a change of scenery, he has been as openly frustrated as Bradford. The two quarterbacks are somewhat linked after a trade last offseason saw them swap teams. Bradford seemed to be Chip Kelly’s passer of choice in Philly, but now Kelly is in California while Bradford remains in eastern Pennsylvania.

Bradford still seems to have his job as well, and is scheduled to make $35 million over the next two seasons. He really has nothing to whine about, but that hasn’t stopped him so far.

Before, I mentioned the Jets as a potential trade partner to land Foles and that is because they have a disgruntled quarterback of their own. Well kind of. Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t currently under contract with New York, but they seem to be his only real suitors. The Jets know that they likely cannot find much success this season with Geno Smith as the starting quarterback. Fitzpatrick knows that too. However, Fitzpatrick knows that the league doesn’t seem interested in paying a soon to be 34-year old journeyman quarterback a competitive salary. The Jets know that too. Hence the ridiculous stalemate.

Ryan Fitzpatrick — Fitzpatrick threw a career-best 31 touchdowns in 2015. (*Wikimedia Commons)*

It seems like New York is willing to give him a reasonable contract, but Fitzpatrick is interested in getting top dollar for his services. He continues to holdout for a better deal and has voiced his discontent to his former teammates. He even has gone as far as to say that he would consider retirement if he could not find an acceptable offer.

For all three of these quarterbacks, it’s time for them to suck it up and realize that the NFL is a business. Now I know that I cannot speak from a player’s perspective on these issues, but they are being paid a lot of money to play this game and their satisfaction with every decision the franchise makes is not part of the contract. To me, these three signal callers demonstrate an unfortunate trend with professional athletes who think that their needs trump those of all others. They are so focused on themselves that they are not willing to think of the well-being of the team.

Those are the kinds of players that, as a coach, a general manager or a fan, I don’t want on my team. Their selfishness shows that they are not willing to make sacrifices for the good of the team and weak mental makeup shows that they are not what you are looking for in the form of a quarterback.

2016 NFL Pro Potential Power Rankings

June 15, 2016June 16, 2016 Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NCAAF, NFL, Power Rankings

For many college football players, the goal is to have success at school to earn a spot in the NFL. Most players who turn pro after college enter the league via the NFL Draft.

With this year seeing a host of Ohio State players drafted in the first three rounds, I was curious which schools have the best track record for sending players to the next level. Not just getting them there, but producing players that go high up in the draft. I set up a scoring system for player selections in each round and then scored the last five NFL Drafts to come up with our first ever Pro Potential Power Rankings. This is college football we are talking about, so here is the top 25.

The scoring system is as follows:
1st round-10 points
2nd round-7 points
3rd round-5 points
4th round-4 points
5th round- 3 points
6th round- 2 points
7th round- 1 points

1. Alabama Crimson Tide- 225 points
Highest Drafted Player– Trent Richardson, 3rd Overall, 2012
This should come as no surprise. Alabama has become a football factory under Nick Saban. They have the most first rounders of any team over the past five years and are one of only a few teams to have a first rounder in each year I looked at.

2. Florida State Seminoles- 183 points
Highest Drafted Player– Jameis Winston, 1st Overall, 2015
There is a sizable drop off from number one to number two, but that’s Alabama for you. Jimbo Fisher has done well at producing high profile draft picks though with first rounders going in each of the last four drafts.

3. Ohio State Buckeyes- 166 points
Highest Drafted Player- Joey Bosa, 3rd Overall, 2016
Something tells me that these guys are going to challenge Alabama next year. The Buckeyes had 10 players drafted in the first three rounds this past year with plenty more pro prospects expected in the next few years.

4. LSU Tigers- 160 points
Highest Drafted Player– Barkevious Mingo/Morris Caliborne, 6th Overall, 2013/2012
It has been two years now since Les Miles’ club has produced a first rounder, but with Leonard Fournette on the horizon, next year LSU should expect another one. These guys will be staying in the top ten for a while.

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish- 151 points
Highest Drafted Player– Ronnie Stanley, 6th Overall, 2016
The Fighting Irish are one of the most high-profile teams in college football. That reflects in the draft as well. Notre Dame continually produces players going in the first three rounds. 2015 was the only season they did not produce a first round selection.

6. Florida Gators- 145 points
Highest Drafted Player– Dante Fowler Jr., 3rd Overall, 2015
It hasn’t always lead to on the field success, but Florida has continued to produce elite level college prospects. 2012 was the only year the Gators didn’t have a players selected in the first round.

7. Stanford Cardinal- 137 points
Highest Drafted Player– Andrew Luck, 1st Overall, 2012
Don’t be surprised if Stanford takes a dip in next year’s rankings. They are still riding a 2012 draft that saw four players go in the first two rounds. However, Christian McCaffrey seems like a lock for a first round pick next year, so they shouldn’t drop too far.

8. Clemson Tigers- 134 points
Highest Drafted Player– Sammy Watkins, 4th Overall, 2014
This is another team we should see continue to rise up the rankings. Clemson has had a player drafted in the first round each of the last four years. Next year should make it five with DeShaun Watson a projected top five pick.

9. Georgia Bulldogs- 125 points
Highest Drafted Player– Todd Gurley, 10th overall, 2015
Another SEC team in the top ten should be no surprise. Georgia has a strong tradition of producing NFL-caliber players. If we went back further, Georgia might have been higher up on this list.

10. Texas A&M Aggies- 108 points
Highest Drafted Player– Luke Joeckel, 2nd Overall, 2013
Why not have another SEC in the top ten? A&M is another one of those schools to have a first rounder in each of the past five years. They should be locked in as a top 15 school with the recruits they continue to attract.

11. USC Trojans- 107 points
Highest Drafted Player– Matt Kalil, 4th Overall, 2012
10 years ago, USC likely would have topped this list. Just goes to show how far USC has fallen since the Reggie Bush scandal broke. The Trojans will eventually regain composure, but they need to solve their coaching debacle first.

12. Oklahoma Sooners- 106 points
Highest Drafted Player– Lane Johnson, 4th Overall, 2013
Oklahoma is a traditional football power but that doesn’t always translate to high draft picks. In fact Johnson, is the only Sooner in the last five years to go in the first round. Oklahoma has thrived off players being selected in the second through fourth rounds.

13. Oregon Ducks- 101 points
Highest Drafted Player– Marcus Mariota, 2nd Overall, 2015
Oregon’s success in the NFL Draft is mostly a testament to Chip Kelly’s time in the Pacific Northwest. Mariota is the biggest name taken, but Oregon has several other first round draft picks, mainly over the past three years. The Ducks aren’t going away any time soon.

14. Miami Hurricanes- 92 points
Highest Drafted Player– Ereck Flowers, 9th Overall, 2015
Miami isn’t the same football factory it was back in the late 90s and early 2000s, but the U is on it’s way back. Brad Kayaa is a projected top five pick next season. The Hurricanes could be moving up these rankings very quickly.

15. Wisconsin Badgers- 92 points
Highest Drafted Player– Melvin Gordon, 15th Overall, 2015
Despite having the same score as Miami, Wisconsin loses out because Flowers was drafted earlier. The Badgers are in for a drop on this list next year with a stellar 2012 class doing most of the heavy lifting in their score. Still, top 15 is very good for Wisco.

16. West Virginia Mountaineers- 90 points
Highest Drafted Player– Kevin White, 7th Overall, 2015
We are not grading schools based on pro success, because that might be a category where West Virginia struggled. Or at least living up to expectations. Either way, the Mountaineers have done really well producing players in the first three rounds of the draft.

17. UCLA Bruins- 90 points
Highest Drafted Player– Anthony Barr, 9th Overall, 2014
Another PAC 12 team makes the list. UCLA has had mixed results over the past few season in terms of draft success. The Bruins seem to do well at sending players to the NFC North (Barr, Brett Huntley, Datone Jones). They lose out to West Virginia because White was drafted higher than Barr.

18. Louisville Cardinals- 88 points
Highest Drafted Player– Sheldon Rankins, 12th Overall, 2016
This is probably the most surprising team on the list. Louisville is not a traditional top 25 team, but they have had a player drafted in the first round each of the past three years. They are helped mainly by the three that came out in 2014.

19. South Carolina Gamecocks- 87 points
Highest Drafted Player– Jadeveon Clowney, 1st Overall, 2014
Still riding a strong 2012 draft class featuring Stephon Gilmore, Melvin Ingram and Alshon Jeffrey, South Carolina is likely in for a drop off next season. However, the SEC often finds ways to produce pro-ready players out of nowhere, so the Gamecocks will be interesting to watch.

20. Michigan State Spartans- 87 points
Highest Drafted Player– Jack Conklin, 8th Overall, 2016
Michigan State has been one of the most successful college football teams in the country over the past few years. That is beginning to translate into draft success. Sparty is another program we could see rising up the rankings in the near future.

21. Missouri Tigers- 81 points
Highest Drafted Player– Sheldon Richardson, 13th Overall, 2013
Only two Missouri players have gone in the first round since 2012, but a solid number of mid-round selections pushes them onto the list. Just goes to show that even some of the middling teams in the SEC produces high draft picks.

22. UNC Tar Heels- 74 points
Highest Drafted Player– Eric Ebron, 10th Overall, 2014
There were a couple of players that I was surprised to discover went to North Carolina. Giovani Bernard was one, Sylvester Williams another. Either way, the Tar Heels haven’t produced a tremendous amount of prospects, but the ones they do churn out, tend to go high in the draft.

23. Penn State Nittany Lions- 74 points
Highest Drafted Player– Donovan Smith, 34th Overall, 2015
Penn State was the only team to make the list without a player selected in the first round over the past five years. Happy Valley continues to churn out mid round selections, particularly second rounders.

24. Baylor Bears- 73 points
Highest Drafted Player– Robert Griffin III, 2nd Overall, 2012
Because I am only looking at the last five years of draft history, Baylor is a popular bet to drop out of the rankings next year. Most of Baylor’s points come from a strong 2012 class, but the 2016 group wasn’t bad. The recent scandal unfolding in Waco doesn’t bode well for the future though.

25. Washington Huskies- 71 points
Highest Drafted Player– Danny Shelton, 12th Overall, 2015
A 2015 draft featuring three Washington players sneaks the Huskies into the top 25. Washington is very top heavy, not having produces many draftees, but placing a lot of them in the first round.

Others Receiving Votes: Arkansas- 69 points, Boise State- 68 points, Mississippi State– 66 points, Auburn– 66 points, Cal- 61 points

Note: All images courtesy of Wikimedia Commons

The Aftermath

When sporting news breaks, we cover the fallout.

NFL

NFL Preseason Award Predictions

Are Rookie Quarterbacks Set up to Fail?

Goodell’s continued power struggle

Suck it up NFL Quarterbacks

2016 NFL Pro Potential Power Rankings

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this: