Grading each NFL coaching hire

All of the NFL’s vacancy signs now have a glowing no next to them. Tennessee wrapped up the NFL coaching carousel by retaining Mike Mularkey and removing his interim tag. Now that all of the dust has settled, it is time to rank each of these new coaching hires. I am evaluating the hires based on situation, personnel fit and long-term projection.

 

Hue Jackson
Cleveland is the third AFC North that Jackson has coached for.

Cleveland Browns:
Hue Jackson (Previously OC for Cincinnati)
Grade: A-

Cleveland is no stranger to coaching changes, as they make their fifth coaching change since 2010. Hue Jackson arrives from Cincinnati, having helped build one of the best offenses in the NFL. Jackson found a system that worked well for Andy Dalton and made him look like a Pro Bowler before his late-season injury. Even without Dalton, Jackson proved that he could be a creative play caller, making things easy on inexperienced A.J. McCarron.

Some other key points that make Jackson such a high ranking hire is that he leaves a division rival and that he has previous coaching experience. It might only be one year, but Jackson was at the helm during the most successful season the Oakland Raiders put together since 2002. Give Jackson a little bit of time and I am sure that he will at least have the Browns heading in the right direction.

 

Adam Gase
Gase coached Manning during his record breaking 2013 season.

Miami Dolphins:
Adam Gase (Previously OC for Chicago)
Grade: A

This was the best coaching hire in paper by any team this season. Going into the coaching search process, I believed that Adam Gase was the best coaching candidate available. He is young at only 37 years old and worked with a great quarterback (Peyton Manning) and a great mentor (John Fox) before he arrived. Many in the media doubt whether Gase has what it takes and seem to discount the progress he made with the Chicago offense this season. Sure, the Bears still were not good and their rankings were fairly similar, but it was only one year that Gase had his system in place and he made the most of it. Getting Jay Cutler to cut down on his turnovers was huge and managing to keep this team afloat when many weeks they had a rookie running back and Eddie Royal as their primary target shows that Gase can make things work when he has limited options.

He enters the Miami picture with a quarterback in need of some rejuvenation and some other interesting pieces on offense. Ryan Tannehill can be productive enough and I believe Gase will get more out of him. I also think he will continue to find unique ways to utilize playmaker Jarvis Landry. If Lamar Miller returns to South Beach, I think Gase will make him a useful piece of the offense, rather than a sidenote as Joe Philbin did. The Dolphins made the right decision here.

 

Ben McAdoo
McAdoo was Aaron Rodgers’ quarterbacks coach in Green Bay before heading to New York.

New York Giants:
Ben McAdoo (Previous OC for Giants)
Grade: B

The Giants decided it was time to move on from Tom Coughlin and stayed in house while finding his replacement. Ben McAdoo spent the last two seasons as the Giants’ offensive coordinator and helped Eli Manning produce two of the best seasons of his career. That was helped some by the addition of Odell Beckham Jr., but that should not discount the immense progress we have seen this New York offense make over the last two seasons.

This grades out as a B because it keeps the same system in place and sometimes continuity can be a very good thing for a football team. McAdoo also has plenty of potential to turn the Giants into an annual playoff contender, having learned from Mike McCarthy before he arrived in New York. The reason why McAdoo does not rank higher is because of his lack of experience and his offensive background. The Giants need help on defense in the worst way. McAdoo will not bring that. I think it has to do a lot with the lack of talent on the defense, but the coaching plays a part too. It will also be interesting to see how McAdoo plans to revive the Giants’ ground game. Using four running backs this past season clearly did not work as New York finished 18th in rushing as a team, with only five ground scores.

 

Doug-Pederson
Pederson is a former NFL quarterback who played in Philadelphia just before Donovan McNabb took over.

Philadelphia Eagles:
Doug Pederson (Previously OC for Kansas City)
Grade: B

Philly needed a change after Chip Kelly and they went in a very different direction. Doug Pederson contrasts will Kelly greatly from a system standpoint. Pederson like to control the clock and ran something of a heavy running west coast system in Kansas City. This seems to be a good fit because of the depth and talent the Eagles have at running back, with DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. Pederson will find a way to get the ball in each of these players’ hands several times a game.

There are some drawbacks to this hire. Pederson has zero previous head coaching experience. The other major thing that holds this hire back from being a slam dunk is where Pederson comes from. Current Kansas City head coach Andy Ried lead the Eagles for more than a dozen years before the Philly brass ran him out of town. Now they return to the Ried coaching tree to fix the fallout from firing Ried in the first place. Pederson is a great hire, but the circumstances surrounding his arrival hurts Philly’s grade.

 

Chip_Kelly
Kelly went 10-6 in his first two seasons with the Eagles before starting 6-9 this year.

San Francisco 49ers:
Chip Kelly (Previously HC for Philadelphia)
Grade: C-

The San Francisco 49ers desperately crave stability, similar to what they had in the early years under Jim Harbaugh. Hiring Chip Kelly does not bring that. The 49ers have had an exodus of talent over the past few years as a result of the franchise not doing well at keeping players happy. Kelly had the same issues in Philly. That does not sound like a winning formula. Kelly also has not shown any ability to build a team. In fact, indications point to the exact opposite, as the Eagles went from a playoff team in Kelly’s first year to a joke this past season.

However, there might be a system fit here with Kelly and quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick fits the prototypical role of a strong-armed mobile quarterback, who can run the read option and use his athleticism to create matchup problems. Kelly will need to fill some holes along the rest of the offense, but the quarterback is a huge piece of it. There are some concerns on defense, but whoever comes in as the defensive coordinator will be left to solve that problem.

 

Dirk Koetter
Koetter arrived in Tampa Bay in 2015 from Atlanta to take over as offensive coordinator.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Dirk Koetter (Previously OC for Tampa Bay)
Grade: B

I have talked about the Buccaneers at great length when it comes to their decision making. I still do not fully understand the firing of Lovie Smith. The team seemed to be heading in the right direction and Koetter was already part of the equation. It did not seem like Koetter was going to leave for elsewhere, but maybe the Bucs just wanted to be sure they did not lose their man.

There are a lot of benefits to hiring Koetter though, most notably being the consistency for franchise quarterback Jameis Winston. These first few years can break a young quarterback’s career. Keeping the same system will go a long way to ensuring that Winston improves on his rookie success. In the next few years, Koetter will have to take this team to the playoffs with consistency. I think he will be up to the task, but if he does not, then this is a huge flop and everyone will wonder what if Lovie had stayed.

 

Mike Mularkey
Mularkey has an 18-39 record as a head coach in the NFL.

Tennessee Titans:
Mike Mularkey (Previously TE coach for Tennessee)
Grade: B+

Finally, someone is giving Mike Mularkey a real chance. He showed signs of promise in Buffalo ten years ago before resigning. He also had one year in Jacksonville before they showed him the door. Now Mularkey takes over in Tennessee after half a season with the interim tag with a shot at building this team. No one should be expecting the Titans to compete right away, as they finished with an abysmal 3-13 record in 2015. This team is in serious rebuild mode, which might make you think that starting fresh would be the right idea.

However, this is a similar situation to Tampa Bay in keeping consistency for a young quarterback. Marcus Mariota showed flashed of being special this season. Making him start over could stunt his growth. By keeping a familiar face in charge Mariota should have every opportunity. Mularkey is not going to have too long before the has to show some signs of progress in Tennessee, but with a completely blank slate (except for quarterback) he will have every opportunity to mold this team.

Packing their bags for more than just money

After a 21-year vacation, it looks like the Rams are heading back to Los Angeles. NFL owners voted 30-2 in favor of the former St. Louis franchise setting up shop in Inglewood. The plan is in place now and the team is set to move in 2017, once the new stadium is built. They will play their home games at the LA Memorial Collesium this year, home of the USC Trojans, for the time being.

While the Rams are celebrating, the Chargers still have a lot of work to do if they want to move. There is an option for the Chargers to join the Rams in Inglewood in 2017 and there are still some rumblings about a new stadium in Carson as well. It is still looking good for the Bolts to be LA bound too, which is important because their stadium lease is up.

On the other hand, the Raiders seem to be screwed. Their proposal to move back to Los Angeles was rejected by the owners and the team seems like it will have to stay in Oakland. However, Raider czar Mark Davis indicated that the team will do everything it can to leave. Rumor has it that a San Antonio site could be pursued. As of right now, the Raiders do not have a place to play their home games. Their lease for their current stadium is up and Davis seems determined not to renew it. Apparently they are next in line for LA if the Chargers pass, but that doesn’t seem too likely.

Todd_Gurley
Todd Gurley is the face of this new Rams franchise.

So why all of the push to move? Well part of it is because money talks. Teams think that they can turn a big profit in Los Angeles with all of the fans that are hungry for football. To me though, this isn’t just about money.

All of these franchises are in the midst of average or below average seasons. None of them have won a Super Bowl since back in 1999, when the Rams took home the Lombardi Trophy thanks to the Greatest Show on Turf. It seems like these teams just want a fresh start. A chance to start over and see what they can build.

For the Rams, it means moving to a big market from a small market. Not many players want to settle down in quiet old St. Louis, Missouri. It is not glamorous by any means, even if it is a great place to live. The Rams suddenly have an opportunity to draw attention of players seeking the spotlight. St. Louis also tends to be a smaller market dominated by baseball. With the Rams failing to make the postseason during the last 11 seasons, it is not easy to command respect in the fan base.

Philip Rivers
Rivers is the aging face of this seemingly average team.

The Chargers seem to be in a slightly different boat. San Diego wants to move into the more prominent light of California. For years, despite all of the Raiders struggles, San Diego has failed to win over the state. The 49ers commanded all of the respect and had most of the support of California fans. Between five Lombardi Trophies and all of the big names, think Rice, Montana, Young, Walsh and Lott, San Fran definitely has the better history. San Diego had Dan Fouts, but many view him as a poor man’s Dan Marino. They also had Kellen Winslow and Lance Alworth, but those guys don’t quite match the mystique of those famed Niners. Even now as the 49ers seem to be in rebuild mode, the Raiders look like a serious playoff contender for the first time in a decade. San Diego just can’t seem to catch a break. They will add another one soon (Tomlinson), but either way, this is about turning the page in the franchise’s history and making the team more popular. Not for the sake of attracting players, more for appealing to fans.

Derek Carr
The Raiders also have a player to build around and market in Derek Carr.

Meanwhile, the Raiders don’t seem to care where they move to, as long as they don’t stay in Oakland. I don’t know why but it seems like the Davis family just does not want to be there. Al Davis, Mark’s father, moved the team to Los Angeles during the 80s, leaving Oakland then too. This has nothing to do with money if you ask me. The Raiders just want to start over. They are building a good young team and they seem to want to leave their past behind them. This organization’s last 10 years was a joke. From drafting Jamarcus Russell to firing Hue Jackson after an 8-8 season, there are some bad memories. Relationships with the local government don’t seem to be great the Raiders would prefer to play in a football specific stadium, rather than share with the Athletics. San Antonio could be a likely spot; I’ve even heard some far-fetched rumors that the team could fill the Rams spot in St. Louis. This is all about escaping Oakland for the Raiders.

All of the cards have yet to completely shake out regarding relocation but for these three franchises, a move represents a lot more than just an increase in potential revenue and new fans in the seats. This is a chance to start fresh.

Steelers face a difficult choice

Saturday’s thrilling win over Cincinnati came at a huge cost for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Late in the game, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger took a shot from Vontez Burfict that tore ligaments in his shoulder and sprained his AC joint.

Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger left Saturday’s game against the Bengals only to return and lead the game-winning drive. 

Monday seemed to offer comfort for Steelers nation as multiple sources reported that Roethlisberger would most likely play in the team’s next playoff game against Denver. However, Tuesday, Ben addressed the media and admitted that he has not tried throwing a football since the game. That does not inspire confidence.

Roethlisberger also said that he would play if he could, but would never take the field if he thought it would hurt his team. I don’t think Ben will be the best judge of that.

Roethlisberger did reenter the game on Saturday following his injury and made a handful of short throws to move the ball down the field. He didn’t look completely comfortable though, which makes you wonder if he will be able to run this high powered Steelers offense. Roethlisberger is a tough player, fighting through ankle injuries all season to play, but if he cannot make the throws required, then the team is better off with him on the bench.

This Broncos team that Pittsburgh will face this weekend is fresh off a bye and looking to avenge a loss from a month ago in the Steel City. Their defense is arguably the best in the league with probably the most depth at the outside pass rushing positions. Denver has excelled all season at pressuring the quarterback, registering the most sacks in the NFL. Denver also has a ball hawking secondary that has time and time again limited teams en route to becoming the league’s (enter ranking here) pass defense.

Mike Tomlin
Tomlin has not named a starter for this weekend’s game with Denver.

If I’m Mike Tomlin, knowing that Roethlisberger has a torn up throwing shoulder, I am starting his back up Landry Jones. He hasn’t started a playoff game before or won two Super Bowls like Roethlisberger, but a healthy Jones will keep the defense honest. With Big Ben under center, I could easily see Denver stacking the box on every play, daring Roethlisberger to throw it down field. With a bum shoulder, he would never be able to do it. Jones is definitely not as talented, but the threat of him throwing the ball down field should open up some other things for the Steelers offense.

Thinking more about it, I don’t know if I want to risk Roethlisberger either. Pittsburgh has a good young core that they have built around Roethlisberger. If he happened to injure his shoulder further in this game, a real possibility with how often Denver reaches the quarterback, the Steelers could be in danger of starting next season without Roethlisberger or jeopardizing his career. Big Ben isn’t so young any more, as this is his eleventh year in the league. Putting my franchise quarterback who has won two Super Bowls at risk is not high up on my to do list if I am Tomlin.

Earlier Wednesday, Pittsburgh announced that Roethlisberger would play in this weekend’s game against Denver, leaving me to shake my head once again. It does not seem to throw him back into the fire like that with the season on the line. It has also been well documented in the media just how banged up Big Ben is. That will likely provide those Broncos pass rushers a little extra incentive to get back there and nail Roethlisberger if they can.

There is very little to gain from putting an injury-riddled quarterback out on the field. There does not seem to be a way to fully protect Roethlisberger other than sitting him out of the contest. It would be in the best interest for both the team and for Ben himself. Landry Jones did not endear himself to the fans or the coaching staff when he threw that interception against Cincinatti, but for right now, he is there best, and realistically their only hope.

A vote against NFL playoff expansion

This first weekend of the NFL playoffs was interesting to say the least. Brian Hoyer looked colorblind. Aaron Rodgers returned to superhuman form. Blair Walsh missed a chip shot. The Bengals and Steelers got physical with each other. It was equal parts surprising and exciting. For the most part, it delivered on all of the hype.

Roger_Goodell
Roger Goodell has pushed for expanding the NFL season either by adding two more regular season games or two playoff games.

There were definitely things that could have improved the weekend. A better showing from Houston. Shorter games maybe. The one thing that definitely was not missing? Another set of games in each conference.

Over the past few years, there have been whispers about the NFL expanded its current playoff field to 14 teams from the 12-team format. The highlights of the plan would be to add another game, increase the suspense and make the road to the Super Bowl even tougher.

After this season though, I cannot imagine a reason to include two more teams. It simply seems unnecessary. The quality of the competition would drop. Already we saw what happened with the weakest division winners making the playoffs. Houston was embarrassed by Kansas City and Washington found Green Bay way too much to handle. Any games added by introducing more teams would likely be a bust. Sure, the Jets playing the Patriots in Foxborough would be exciting. Watching Arizona trash a .500 Atlanta team, that is something I could live without. It wouldn’t be good football. These mid-tiered teams would just be outmatched.

Moreover, they don’t deserve it. People spent a great deal of time complaining about how weak the AFC South and NFC East was this season. Across message boards and comment sections, there were calls for the NFL to reformat so that these teams that won each division would not automatically receive a bid to the postseason. The argument was that they did not have good enough records to make the playoffs. In the case of Houston, that turned out to be true, as the Jets had a better record, but the Texans made the playoffs instead. If those teams, who were division winners, were not good enough to qualify for the postseason, then why would teams even further down the list be considered in playoff expansion?

I am of the mentality that for a team to really be good enough to compete in the playoffs, they should have a winning record. Only one team that did not qualify for the postseason this year had a winning record. That was the Jets. Some others were close, like Atlanta and Indianapolis, but they finished at .500. In other words, they were average. It is pretty easy to argue that the Jets did not deserve to make the playoffs either. New York only beat two teams with winning records this year. In the NFL, we don’t want to see average teams make the playoffs. We want the best of the best so we can see some truly iconic and terrific games.

In the NFL, teams are made to be average. It is rare that there are 14 teams nowadays that have winning records. Only once in the past five seasons have there been at least 14 teams above .500 at the end of the season. It is not easy to get those kinds of results any more. The league is full of parity. It is also a bit ambitious to expect close to half the league to win more than half of their games.

The morale here? 12 is good. 12 is great. That potentially even more than we need. It is nice to keep the hope of some Cinderella teams alive (see 2007 Giants, 2009 Cardinals). However, introducing even more of them would just be overkill. It would detract from the postseason more than it would add to it. Let’s just keep this as it is and put this conversation of expansion to bed.

Potential NFL Cap Casualties

For 12 NFL teams, the focus remains on the playoffs. For the other 20 teams though, it is time to start thinking about the offseason. With a little (ok a lot) of help from Spotrac.com, I went through and determined the players on the 20 teams not in postseason action most likely to be cap casualties this offseason.

Falcons logoAtlanta Falcons
Tyson Jackson, DE
Roddy White, WR
Matt Bryant, K
Jacob Tamme, TE
Total Savings: $13.45 million
The first year of the Dan Quinn era got off to a good start, but there were some veterans on the team who definitely did not contribute to what their pay grade indicates they should have. Tyson Jackson failed to register a sack this season and has a $6.35 million price tag attached to him. Roddy White showed his age and is not worth the 6 million and change it would cost to keep him. Matt Bryant has been good but at age 40 he is reaching the end of his career and Atlanta can find a cheaper option. Tamme is a back up on the team and would save over a million if they cut him.

Ravens logoBaltimore Ravens
Ladarius Webb, CB
Dennis Pitta, TE
Total Savings: $11.5 million
Ladarius Webb just turned 30 and is on the downside of his career. Dennis Pitta has not been able to stay healthy over the past few years and is not worth the $7.2 million he counts against the cap next season. They will probably restructure Joe Flacco’s contract as well, as it would save them over $11 million in cap space. Maybe with the money, Baltimore can invest in a wide receiver.

Bills logoBuffalo Bills
Mario Williams, DE
Total Savings: $15.5 million
Paying $19.9 million for any player is ridiculous, especially when you can cut him to save that much. Rex Ryan has already made it clear that Williams will not be back. Look for the team to restructure Marcel Dareus’ contract as well to save an additional $6 million.


Bears logoChicago Bears
Antrel Rolle, S
Total Savings: $3 million
Rolle is 33 now and the Bears need to infuse some youth on this defense. Chicago actually has a ton of cap space to work with already (roughly $59 million). The Bears could create a ton of room as well if they can restructure Jay Cutler’s deal. It would save them about $13 million in cap space, giving them $75 million to spend.

Browns logoCleveland Browns
Dwayne Bowe, WR
Josh McCown, QB
Karlos Dansby, LB
Total Savings: $11.78 million
Cutting Dwayne Bowe doesn’t save a ton compared to what his cap hit was supposed to be, but he was so terrible in 2015, he needs to go. Josh McCown does not have a spot on this team either. Dansby is 34 and saves $5 million in cap space if he is cut. The Browns could rework Joe Haden’s deal to save an extra $7 million as well.

Cowboys logoDallas Cowboys
No one
Total Savings: None
This seems lame but really the Cowboys have no one to cut that will make a huge difference. At least no one they can afford to lose. I think Dallas will restructure Tony Romo’s and Tyron Smith’s deals though in order to free up close to $21.4 million in cap space.

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Detroit Lions
Brandon Pettigrew, TE
Rashean Mathis, CB
Total Savings: $5.15 million
With rumors circulating that Calvin Johnson might retire, the Lions could have even more cap room. Eric Ebron has taken over for Pettigrew at tight end and Mathis is 35 already. Detroit desperately needs to infuse some youth and spend some draft picks on their secondary. If Megatron stays, don’t be surprised to see his deal restructured, as it would save the Lions over $12 million.

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Indianapolis Colts
Andre Johnson, WR
Trent Cole, OLB
Erik Walden, OLB
Total Savings: $15.25 million
All three of these players are coming off disappointing seasons. Cole and Johnson had the worst seasons of their careers while Walden failed to make much of an impact.

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Jacksonville Jaguars
Chris Clemons, DE
Dan Skuta, OLB
Total Savings: $7.6 million
Neither one of these guys has to go and I wouldn’t be surprised if they both stayed. They are just the two most likely players to get cut. Clemons only started seven games this year and registered just three sacks. Skuta was also a spot starter and with both Telvin Smith and Dante Fowler projecting as the starters for next season, he is more of a surplus at this point.

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Miami Dolphins
Quinton Coples, OLB
Greg Jennings, WR
Total Savings: $12.75 million
Neither of these players did much in 2015. Jennings has been replaced in the offensive by both Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. Coples was a midseason signing with no track record. Cutting him costs the Dolphins nothing and saves them $7.75 million. Look for them to rework Ndomakung Suh’s and Ryan Tannehill’s deals to save about $25.1 million.

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New Orleans Saints
Marques Colston, WR
Total Savings: $5.5 million
Colston started to show his age this year and will likely not be returning. The Saints won’t cut Drew Brees, most likely, but they will force him to take a pay cut for sure. He counts $30 million against the cap next year and the Saints cannot afford that.

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New York Giants
Victor Cruz, WR
Total Savings: $8 million
The Giants can afford to keep Cruz, but at 29 with a long injury history, New York will likely let him walk. The Giants can also restructure Eli Manning’s deal to give them an additional $12.4 in cap space. That would give New York close to $60 million in cap room for the upcoming offseason.

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New York Jets
Antonio Cromartie, CB
Breno Giacomini, RT
Geno Smith, QB
Total Savings: $13.5
million
The Jets are very deep in the secondary and with Cromartie already at 31 years old, New York can let him walk. Cutting Giacomini, who has been underwhelming, would let the Jets draft a tackle in the first round to fix that spot. Getting rid of Smith only saves $1 million, but it lets the Jets move on from a terrible draft pick. If the team needs money to make a big deal in free agency, Darrelle Revis’ contract can be reworked to save over $12 million.

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Oakland Raiders
Sebastian Janikowski, K
Total Savings: $3.6 million
Janikowski is 37 now and has one of the highest cap numbers for kickers in the league. Like Jacksonville, Oakland doesn’t need to cut him, but if they cut someone, I think he is most likely. The Raiders already have $64 million in cap room.

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Philadelphia Eagles
Brent Celek, TE
Total Savings: $5 million
Over the last two years, Brent Celek has clearly become second fiddle to Zach Ertz. He turned 30 this year as well, which doesn’t help his case. I think Philly will rework Byron Maxwell’s deal to save some additional space.

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San Diego Chargers
Donald Brown, RB
Total Savings: $3.5 million
With Bradon Oliver, Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead already in San Diego, Donald Brown probably gets ruled as excess. Look for San Diego to rework Philip Rivers’ deal to save north of $11 million in cap space too.

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San Francisco 49ers
Colin Kaepernick, QB
Erik Pears, RT
Total Savings: $15.5 million
With Anthony Davis potentially coming back in 2016, the 49ers won’t need the 33-year old Pears anymore at right tackle. We’ve also likely seen the last of Colin Kaepernick in the Bay Area. Cutting him will save the Niners $13.4 million in cap space.

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St. Louis Rams
No one
Total Savings: None
Similar to Dallas, the Rams don’t have anyone they would like to cut to save money. We could see Robert Quinn’s deal restructured though to save St. Louis about $5.3 million.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vincent Jackson, WR
Logan Mankins, LG
Total Savings: $16.8 million
Over the past two seasons, Vincent Jackson’s production has dropped off. Granted this season he was hurt, but he will be 33 in 2016 and Tampa needs to continue to build a young foundation. Releasing him saves the Bucs almost $10 million. Logan Mankins was great for a stop-gap solution but he is not the long term answer. Rather than keep him on another year, save $7 million and cut him now.

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Tennessee Titans
Da’Norris Searcy, SS
Total Savings: $5 million
Searcy is not the answer at safety and the Titans do not need to have him count that extra $5 million against the cap while they find his replacement. The Titans need to draft well to get back into playoff contention.