NFL Power Rankings: Preseason Week 2

1. Green Bay Packers (Last week: 1)
The Pack managed to make it through the first week of the preseason without any major injuries. A win over the Patriots was solid as well. Aaron Rodgers looked sharp in his brief appearance. The future looks bright as well after Brett Hundley’s impressive appearance.

2. Indianapolis Colts (Last week: 2)
Don’t read too much into the loss to the Eagles. Andrew Luck complete five of his six passes for 42 yards. The running game will be much improved as well once Frank Gore returns this week. The defense did fairly well with the starters playing, holding Mark Sanchez to just two of seven passing.

3. Seattle Seahawks (Last week: 3)
Not the best start of all time for Seattle. That offensive line looks like it could use some work as it allowed two sacks of Russell Wilson in the early going. The big concern was how the Seahawks would fair without Max Unger and it doesn’t look like those concerns were quieted. Tyler Lockett was a bright spot though.

4. Dallas Cowboys (Last week: 4)
Hard to judge the Cowboys performance this week versus the Chargers as Tony Romo, Joseph Randle and Dez Bryant all missed the game. However, it was nice to see a strong performance out of Gavin Escobar with five catches for 47 yards.

5. Denver Broncos (Last week: 6)
Denver moves up a spot mainly due to the Patriots’ issues. Peyton Manning didn’t appear in this first preseason matchup but Brock Osweiler, Ronnie Hillman and Cody Latimer all looked good in this one. The latter two could be integral parts of this Bronco offense in 2015.

6. New England Patriots (Last week: 5)
It is hard to say the Patriots are in trouble after just one week but Jimmy Garrappalo did not exactly instill confidence in Pats’ fans. He completed 20 of 30 passes but only amassed 156 yards. That will improve as more of New England’s starting offensive lineman begin to play, but still not a great first impression.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (Last week: 8)
It was good to see Ben Roethlisberger hit a Steeler wide receiver not named Antonio Brown for a touchdown pass. The Steelers have to hope that Deangelo Williams can fill in for LeVeon Bell those first two weeks still, which is a scary thought.

8. Arizona Cardinals (Last week: 7)
Adding Chris Johnson could be a nice addition for this team. Mike Iupati going down for 6-8 weeks is not good though. It was also nice to see Carson Palmer back under center. He looked great too, completing all four passes for 79 yards in his brief appearance.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (Last week: 9)
The Bengals defense looked good against what many expect to be a potent Giants offense. Cincy also has two great young runners to take some of the pressure of the often-disappointing Andy Dalton. The Bengals have to feel good about their playoff chances entering the season.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (Last week: 11)
The first team offense struggled without Jamaal Charles in the picture. That should tell you just how valuable he is to this team. They will go as far as he can carry them this season.

11. Philadelphia Eagles (Last week: 12)
Ignoring Tim Tebow’s return is for the best in terms of looking at the Eagles’ hopes of doing well. Nelson Agholor showed some flashes though, as did Kenjon Barner. The Eagles might have found some need skill position players to help score points this season.

12. San Diego Chargers (Last week: 10)
Melvin Gordon did not impress much in his first ever NFL game. Six carries for 11 yards is Trent Richardson-like numbers. This Chargers team needs a solid starter to rely on after the mess the backfield turned into last season.

13. Minnesota Vikings (Last week: 13)
Teddy Bridgewater looked really strong in his short time on the field. The defense managed to bully the rookie Jameis Winston as well in his first action, recording two sacks and a pick. Good outing for the Vikings. We still all just want to see Adrian Peterson play again.

14. Miami Dolphins (Last week: 14)
If the Patriots struggle out of the gate without Brady, this could be Miami’s division to win. A strong defense and a steadily improved Ryan Tannehill could do the trick for the Fins this year.

15. Detroit Lions (Last week: 15)
Detroit bullied the Jets all night long. The pass defense looked strong and the Lions offense took it to this vaunted New York D. Ameer Abdullah looks as good as he has been advertised in camp too.

16. Baltimore Ravens (Last week: 16)
It is going to be tough for the Ravens to make the playoffs again. You have to assume they would be looking for a wildcard spot behind either Pittsburgh or Cincinnati atop the division. And the AFC is wide open with teams that could challenge for those two spots.

17. Houston Texans (Last week: 20)
The move is more due to the circumstances of teams around them. Alfred Blue did pretty well in relief of Arian Foster and Cecil Shorts III looked like he could be a weapon on his 58-yard touchdown reception. Now if only they had a clue as to who will play quarterback.

18. Buffalo Bills (Last week: 18)
Tyrod Taylor is getting a start for the Bills. That probably isn’t a good sign. He might end up being decent but based on his track record, Buffalo is in trouble if this is the best guy they have in camp at the moment.

19. New York Giants (Last week: 19)
Landon Collins will likely miss some time now with a sprained MCL. That is not a good sign to start the season for a Giants’ defense that allowed the fourth-worst yards per attempt average in 2014.

20. Atlanta Falcons (Last week: 22)
The Falcons might actually be the favorite to win this division despite looking like a .500 team on paper. If Tevin Coleman can put together a good season for this team though, they will be much more balanced on offense.

21. New Orleans Saints (Last week: 23)
The Saints are not exactly a playoff bound team but they have a shot in the weak NFC South. With Junior Galette and Jimmy Graham gone though, that could be an uphill battle.

22. New York Jets (Last week: 21)
Some were saying the Jets could be a playoff contender if their offseason acquisitions pay off. It didn’t look like it though in Detroit though as New York finished the night with 56 passing yards. That was for the whole game. It might be preseason, but that is not a good sign.

23. Carolina Panthers (Last week: 17)
Carolina struggled to make the playoffs last year. And that was with Kelvin Benjamin. With the second-year wideout done for the season with an ACL tear, Cam Newton is in for a very long season.

24. St. Louis Rams (Last week: 24)
The Rams need Todd Gurley to be a factor this season. That doesn’t mean rush him back but if he does very little, St. Louis is going nowhere in the standings and likely headed for Los Angeles.

25. Cleveland Browns (Last week: 27)
Before anyone gets too excited, let’s remember it’s preseason. That being said, Johnny Manziel looked pretty good the other night. He finally looked like a quarterback with a ton of athleticism rather than an athletic dude trying to play quarterback. There is still a long way to go though from here.

26. San Francisco 49ers (Last week: 26)
There is no hiding the fact that this will be a long year for the fans of the red and gold. Carlos Hyde is unproven and there is not a wide receiver with a future on this roster. Now with Aldon Smith gone, San Fran is in a lot of trouble.

27. Chicago Bears (Last week: 25)
With rumors that Kevin White could miss the whole season due to injury, the Bears have to be in panic mode. If people thought Jay Cutler looked bad last year, 2015 could be even worse.

28. Oakland Raiders (Last week: 28)
The Raiders had a good first week of the preseason. This team could pull off a couple of upsets throughout the season, but they will be upsets. The Raiders are favorite against almost no one in the NFL.

29. Washington (Last week: 29)
Robert Griffin III announced to the media that he thought he was the best quarterback in the NFL. Washington proceeded to ban RG3 from future media engagements, and then announced he will start the whole season no matter what. Considering this is election season, I can’t believe the football team is the one surrounded with the most uncertainty in the nations capital.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars (Last week: 30)
Well it is hard to be worse than the Buccaneers and Titans. We will see if the Jags can find a way to get Blake Bortles comfortable in this offense and maybe try to keep him upright for once.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last week: 31)
Well Jameis Winston finally debuted in an NFL uniform. His first appearance was pretty uneven though. He threw a pick and completed less than half his passes but there were certainly bright spots as well.

32. Tennessee Titans (Last week: 32)
Marcus Mariota first game started about as poorly as possible. He was strip sacked and picked off on his first two drives. However, Mariota settled down and completed the rest of his passes. Seems like the kid can bounce back.

NFL Power Rankings: Preseason Week 1

The season is not underway yet but that doesn’t mean we can’t start ranking teams. The preseason is set to kickoff tomorrow so it is time to begin my first NFL Power Rankings of 2015.

1. Green Bay Packers
The Packers come into the season as my Super Bowl pick. Aaron Rodgers is probably the best quarterback in the NFL and he has way too many weapons on offense between Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Davonte Adams and Eddie Lacy. Think the Packers can win based on offense alone? Their 2012 Super Bowl win was due in large part to their second ranked defense. Just saying.

2. Indianapolis Colts
Like Green Bay, this team wins games by scoring points. Andrew Luck is an MVP candidate heading into this season and should have a much improved running game to support him with Frank Gore coming to town. The Colts suddenly have a very deep wide receiving core as well with Andre Johnson and Phillip Dorsett joining Indy during the offseason. The defense probably still needs some work but with the Patriots weakened, this is my pick to win the AFC.

3. Seattle Seahawks
This is supposed to be the year that the Seahawks finally let Russell Wilson loose. He has more weapons than ever, thanks to the arrival of Jimmy Graham. The offensive line might take a little bit of figuring out with Pro Bowl center Max Unger gone but this defense looks just about as strong as it ever did. Seattle is still going to be very hard to beat.

4. Dallas Cowboys
If they still had DeMarco Murray, they might be number one. The Cowboys defense isn’t perfect but adding Greg Hardy and Randy Gregory will improve it and might even push it to the territory of above average. Tony Romo is thankful to keep Dez Bryant around and Bryant is thankful he finally got paid. Dallas should win the NFC East again and make some noise in the playoffs.

5. New England Patriots
Without Darrelle Revis, Vince Wilfork or Tom Brady for the first four games, the Patriots are going to struggle. Even after Brady returns, this team is going to have to find a way to generate a lot of points to make up for the weak defense. They remain at five because they are the raining Super Bowl Champions but this team is going to slide a bit if they can’t get on track.

6. Denver Broncos
There are a lot of question marks surrounding this team. The biggest one is how well will Peyton Manning perform. I think this Broncos offense is going to dip some but due to the losses of Julius Thomas, Manny Rivera and Wes Welker rather than Manning’s declining play. Denver is certainly not a lock to win the West this year.

7. Arizona Cardinals
If Carson Palmer returns to pre-surgery form, the Cardinals could very well be the team to beat in the NFC West. Arizona went 11-5 last season despite playing with either their second or third string quarterback under center for 10 out of their 16 games. With Palmer, they were undefeated. Oh and they had the fourth best scoring defense. This is a complete team.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers will struggle without LeVeon Bell in the lineup. Plain and simple. However, with those two games coming against the Bradyless Patriots and the reeling San Francisco 49ers. Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger should be more than enough to beat those two teams.

9. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals will challenge Pittsburgh again for the division. They will also probably end up as one of the wildcards from the AFC. And then they will almost definitely find a way to blow it in the wildcard game. If the Bengals bow out of the first round yet again, expect a new coach in Cincy.

10. San Diego Chargers
Melvin Gordon could be the missing piece in San Diego. Phillip Rivers is in a contract year too so he will be hard pressed to put up good numbers. The Chargers pair they vamped up offense with a defense that ranked in the top ten last season for yards allowed. They should challenge Denver for the division crown.

11. Kansas City Chiefs
Maybe I am over estimating the talent in the AFC West this season but the Chiefs have a vastly improved secondary after getting Eric Berry back and drafting Marcus Peters. Jamaal Charles will still be the workhorse but Jeremy Maclin definitely improves this passing attack and should catch at least one touchdown this season.

12. Philadelphia Eagles
Definitely the toughest team to figure out by a landslide. This Eagles team could be a Super Bowl contender or a basement dweller. No one is quite sure. Losing McCoy and Maclin definitely hurt what was a talented Eagles offense. The jury is still out on the health of DeMarco Murray and Sam Bradford as well.

13. Minnesota Vikings
I think a lot of people are sleeping on the Vikings this year. They are loaded up at skill positions and Teddy Bridgewater is the reigning Rookie of the Year. The defense was solid but needed some help when it came to stopping the run. Spending their first three picks on defense showed the Vikings were ready to address the problem. They should be a Wild Card team in the NFC.

14. Miami Dolphins
Miami is right on the cusp of being a good team. Ndomakung Suh immediately improves a Dolphin run defense that ranked 24th last season. Once Devante Parker is healthy, Ryan Tannehill is going to have some weapons to work with as well. Miami could sneak into the Wild Card picture by season’s end.

15. Detroit Lions
You can’t pretend that the loses of Nick Fairley and the aforementioned Suh won’t really hurt the Lions rush defense. Matthew is still not an elite quarterback either. Stafford’s record against teams that finish with winning records is 3-24 over the last four years. Tells you all you need to know.

16. Baltimore Ravens
Short and sweet, I am not a huge fan of the 2015 Ravens. Breshad Perriman cannot replace Torry Smith nor can Timmy Jernigan replace Haloti Ngata. This team is going to struggle to throw the ball with Steve Smith Sr. as the only proven receiver on the roster. And he’s 36.

17. Carolina Panthers
This division should be marginally better than it was a year ago, but still not good. And the Panthers should still win it. The defense looks solid and Cam Newton has a good rapport with Kelvin Benjamin. That offensive line is shaky at best thought. Newton could be in for a long year.

18. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are going to look very different from last season. C.J. Spiller is gone in favor of LeSean McCoy. Matt Cassell takes over Kyle Orton’s role. Kiko Alonso is now an Eagle. And Rex Ryan is now calling the shots. The Bills are one of those teams that, if they had a quarterback, they would be really good.

19. New York Giants
Injuries once again plague the Giants and the season hasn’t even begun yet. Will Beatty will miss most of this season with a torn pectoral muscle. That means Ereck Flowers will be thrown into the starting role. Having a rookie left tackle protecting Eli Manning’s blindside is not comforting.

20. Houston Texans
Like the Bills, the Texans have just about all of the pieces in place, except for at quarterback. They at least have a group with some promise. It will be interesting to see how the franchise fares with Andre Johnson though. A lot is riding on DeAndre Hopkins being a true number one receiver.

21. New York Jets
Probably the only team in the league that benefits from having their starting quarterback’s jaw broken. Ryan Fitzpatrick knows the system from his time with offensive coordinator Chan Gailey in Buffalo. The Jets could compete this year, or completely fold and go 5-11.

22. Atlanta Falcons
Offense has never been the problem for Atlanta. Still the Falcons bolstered their ground attack with Tevin Colemon. On the other side of the ball, Dan Quinn arrives from Seattle to rejuvenate the league’s worst statistical defense. I think Vic Beasley is a bust (see Gohlson, Vernon for comparison) but only time will tell.

23. New Orleans Saints
Giving Drew Brees more time to throw the ball was a good decision. The Saints need some of their gambles, like C.J. Spiller and Stephone Anthony to pay some immediate dividends if New Orleans has any hope of returning to the playoffs in 2015. It’s a slight chance but with Brees under center you never know.

24. St. Louis Rams
How on Earth the Rams front office convinced the Eagles that Sam Bradford was worth Nick Foles AND draft picks is beyond me. If Foles stays healthy, the Rams could be a sleeper team to challenge for a wild card spot. However, Foles doesn’t have the same targets he did in Philly.

25. Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler is a marked man in Chicago. However, Adam Gase is pretty good at coaching up quarterbacks. With Kevin White and a fully healthy defense, the Bears should improve this season. Based on how tough the division (ok mostly the Packers) look though, it might not be by much.

26. San Francisco 49ers
It’s amazing that just two years ago, this team was a crazy Seattle interception away from being in the Super Bowl for what would have been a second consecutive season. Now, the 49ers are the basement dwellers in the NFC West in terms of talent. This is going to be a long year for the Bay Area football.

27. Cleveland Browns
Yeah I know the Browns almost avoided a losing record and weren’t eliminated from the playoffs until Week 16 but Cleveland is still a mess. After letting Brian Hoyer walk, the Browns found themselves with Josh McCown and the science experiment still known as Johnny Manziel. Pair that with the fact that former quarterback Terrelle Pryor might be Cleveland’s best receiver and you understand why they are ranked where they are.

28. Oakland Raiders
The beginning of the David Carr era was less than stellar but there was some promising moments for the young quarterback. With a real weapon in Amari Cooper and a potential possession receiver in Michael Crabtree, Oakland’s offense could be at least average. Especially with Latavius Murray in the backfield. Watch out for that kid on highlight reels.

29. Washington
This ranking could change very quickly if Washington finally finds a competent quarterback. The running game is there and the defense is starting to come along with some bright young corners and a couple of potentially impactful pass rushers. If RGIII comes close to his 2012 form, Washington will be better this year.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars
Losing your first round pick mere weeks after signing him to a season-ending injury is rough and yet it totally seems to for the Jaguars. With reports Justin Blackmon will never play again, the Jags keep losing out on young talent. However, Blake Bortles seems to be the exception.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They might have finished with the worst record in football a season ago so the Bucs are already in better shape than a season ago. This team is still lacking in talent but locking down the talented guys they have like Lavonte David is how Tampa needs to continue to rebuild.

32. Tennessee Titans
Without a clear running back or wide receiver set to start for Tennessee the offense will probably struggle. Pair that with the fact that they have a rookie quarterback and it’s almost a guarantee. The defense doesn’t look much better but bringing in Brian Orakpo is a step in the right direction. The Titans probably won’t be leaving the NFL cellar anytime soon though.

Blessing in disguise

As a fan, you never hope to see a player injured. Well at least you shouldn’t. However, Jets fans probably feel a slight sigh of relief knowing that they do not have to watch Geno Smith under center again for the next 6-10 weeks. On the surface, this seems like a real issue for the Jets. But when you dig a little deeper, things start to look pretty good actually.

Geno Smith
Smith’s injury require surgery and he will miss the rest of the preseason, along with anywhere from 2-6 weeks of the regular season.

Smith is out those 6-10 weeks due to a broken jaw he sustained when he was “sucker-punched” in the locker room by a teammate. That sounds like a discipline problem that would be rampant under Rex Ryan. However, Todd Bowles already took care of the issue by swiftly cutting IK Enemkpali, a 2014 sixth round draft pick, who wasn’t expected to make the team anyway. So the guy who caused the problem is already gone. It wasn’t a starter on either side of the ball or someone who the Jets had high hopes for. That certainly makes the problem a lot more manageable.

As for replacing Geno, the Jets already have a contingency plan in place. Ryan Fitzpatrick was brought in the offseason to offer some competition for Smith and will now step into the starting role. Many feel that Fitzpatrick is more suited for the starting job anyway. He showed flashes of brilliance last year, including a six-touchdown performance against Tennessee, while playing for the Texans. He also knows the offense that Smith was attempting to learn for the first time. Fitzpatrick played under now Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey when he was the head coach in Buffalo. He ran the system for a few years and is very familiar with both the terminology and mindset. Fitzpatrick made his only Pro Bowl playing in that offense. Now, it is a bit much to start expecting a Pro Bowl year out of Fitzpatrick but he should be an immediate upgrade over the incumbent Smith given his prior experience.

Ryan_Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick playing last season in Houston. The Texans were 6-6 in games he started.

For management, this opens a previously unforeseen door. This situation should pan out a lot like the Mark Sanchez situation when Smith joined the team as a rookie. Sanchez injured his shoulder late in the preseason and subsequently missed the entire year. That allowed Geno to take over the starting job and the Jets to cut Sanchez when they thought they had a better option in Smith. Additionally, the Jets are able to see what Fitzpatrick can do in this offense. If he excels, the Jets can release Smith and roll with Fitzpatrick under center until rookie Bryce Petty is ready to take over the gig. If Fitzpatrick struggles, then the Jets can turn the offense back over to Geno when he is healthy. This allow New York to see what they have in Fitzpatrick without having to pull the rug out from underneath Smith. It won’t be awkward either to put Smith in either now if Fitzpatrick struggles because he never started previously. Overall, this situation definitely works out in the Jets’ favor.

I’m sure the coaching staff will maintain that they really saw a lot in Smith and were eager to see him start this season but he has two years of mediocre play in his past already that doesn’t promise much. Smith ranked 25th in Total QBR a season ago, tied with Kyle Orton. In 30 career games played, he has thrown for only 5,571 yards with a 6.88 yard per attempt rate. His completion percentage is a lowly 57.5 and he has thrown nine more interceptions than touchdowns. Smith had his few bright spots in his play, namely against Atlanta in 2013 and Miami at the end of last season, but on the whole he has been one of the five worst starting quarterbacks in the league. He would have to make massive strides to get himself on par with even an average NFL quarterback.

Now with Smith out, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Jets target another quarterback, like Matt Flynn, in case Fitzpatrick gets hurt. The latter did miss the final four games of the season with a torn pectoral muscle last year. The Jets want to avoid putting Petty into game action at all costs so finding another suitable backup will be a priority.

Smith’s career is all but over in New York. This injury is a blessing in disguise. It allows the new regime to find a quarterback they selected to start. It may also be a blessing for Geno. All of the reports this offseason have indicated that this was a great camp for him. With no evidence so far to prove otherwise, that means Smith might draw some interest from other clubs if he is released from New York. He would be a project player but because Smith never had a chance to play, he will be an unknown commodity. That usually isn’t a good thing but it certainly beats out being a proven failure, which Smith would have been had he blown yet another chance in New York. When all is said in done, I think this will settle well for everyone. Now, to go send IK Enempalki a thank you card….

NFL Preseason Awards

The NFL season sort of officially kicked off last night with the annual Hall of Fame game between the Vikings and Steelers in Canton, Ohio. The starters only played a handful of minutes but it was good to see players back in uniform playing against another team.

With the start of the season comes thoughts of how it will project. Which teams will make the playoffs, which will be bad and who will make the Super Bowl are among the common questions asked. Right now I am going to look at individual performance though for players who will truly have an impact on the game this year. Some of these are no-brainers. Others are a little bit trickier. Either way, here is my best shot at predicted the end of the season award winners.

MVP: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Runner up: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
The popular pick is probably Rodgers with all of the weapons he has at his disposal. Weapons that are nowhere close to as effective with him out of the lineup either. However, Luck has been winning since day 1 in Indianapolis. This team is built around Luck and truly will go as far as he can take them. Adding Andre Johnson and Frank Gore gives the Colts some veteran options to work with and I expect Luck to get the most out of them. Expect another AFC South crown from Indy and this time Luck will be the catalyst to a top spot in the AFC.

Offensive Player of the Year: LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills
Runner up: Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
This seems like an odd pick considering McCoy had a down year last season and is starting with a brand new team. But think for a second what Rex Ryan likes to do more than pretty much anyone in the world. Run the football. McCoy will get more than his fair share of touches in the backfield and will be able to stay fresh with Fred Jackson spelling him whenever he needs. With no reliable quarterback in place either, McCoy will be the main source of offense in Buffalo this season.

Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans
Runner up: Robert Quinn, DE, St. Louis Rams

This is one of those no-brainers when making these selections. J.J. Watt has simply been superhuman over the past three seasons and I see no reason for that not to continue here. He consistently dominates the competition and with some potential help coming the form of Jadeveon Clowney, Watt could have even more opportunities to be disruptive. Look for another strong showing from the league’s best defensive player.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
Runner up: Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders

Amari Cooper might very well be the best player from this draft when all is said and done but for now Melvin Gordon is taking home the honors. Gordon enters a great situation in San Diego. They have a well established offensive line and a team that likes to light things up on offense. You can assume that Gordon will get 15 to 18 touches per game. Which should be more than enough to make his impact felt. He won’t need to be the key source of offense at all times with Phillip Rivers under center but Gordon will still make a major impact.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Leonard Williams, DE, New York Jets
Runner up: Marcus Peters, CB Kansas City Chiefs

When it first happened, the Jets selection of Leonard Williams seemed kind of redundant. Once Sheldon Richardson received his suspension for violating the NFL drug policy and then the ensuing legal run in, Williams seems like he will play a much more important role. He will play alongside Damon Harrison and Mo Wilkerson so there is not much of a chance Williams sees too much of the attention when blocking. He will be a disruptive force in the running game and could wind up with his fair share of sacks with the way Todd Bowles likes to blitz. Williams will have a big year for this defense.

Comeback Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Runner up: Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals

If it wasn’t for the fact that Adrian Peterson is one of the best running backs in the NFL then Palmer would have this award locked up. However, Peterson is returning from a year where he played one game before missing the whole season due to legal trouble. With an offense that seems to have a much more solidified passing attack than when he left, Peterson won’t need to carry this team but he will still be the best player on it. That will be good enough to earn Peterson the award.

Coach of the Year: Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings
Runner up: Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
I think Andy Reid will have a successful year coaching the Chiefs in the wide open West. However, the job that Mike Zimmer has already done with the Vikings should earn him the award. He dealt with the Peterson drama all offseason and now has the Vikings looking like a playoff team. They won’t surpass the Packers for the NFC North title but he will get them into the wildcard. Zimmer will coach this group up to a 10-6 record and get the most out of his guys.

Why Matthew Stafford doesn’t cut it

There is a lot of pressure when it comes to making the right choice with the first pick in the NFL draft. We have seen our fair share of Hall of Famers, (Peyton Manning, John Elway, Lee Roy Selmon, Earl Campbell) and we’ve seen some hilarious busts (JaMarcus Russell, Courtney Brown, Ricky Bell, Ki-Jana Carter). It really can be hit or miss sometimes.

Matt_Stafford_2009_croppedMatthew Stafford is one of those first overall picks, from the 2009 edition of the draft. Stafford is by no means a bust. He has put up 21,000 yards and 131 touchdowns in his career. However, Stafford really doesn’t cut it for me. He is not number one overall material in terms of what his value turned out to be. He has been an average NFL quarterback, nothing more nothing less.

There are a lot of reasons I’m not too high on Stafford as a starting NFL quarterback. It starts with his over-inflated passing stats. Stafford consistently throws for 4,500 yards in a season, including over 5,000 in 2011. Those numbers look great but Stafford also throws an enormous amount of passes. His career average yards per attempt sits at 7.01. Stafford has never ranked in the top ten for yards per attempt in a single season. He came close in 2012 finishing 11th. He has finished twice outside the top 20 though, including this past season. Among active starters, Stafford is tied with Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton for yards per attempt in their career at 15th. That is underwhelming for sure. That isn’t all on Stafford because his receivers are responsible for picking up yards after the catch as well. However, part of the explanation comes in the next fault in his game.

Matthew_Stafford_(cropped)59.6 percent. That is Stafford’s career completion percentage. His receivers cannot pick up yards for him if Stafford cannot get them the ball. That number ranks Stafford 19th among active quarterbacks. That is below what would even be considered average. Stafford has only managed to rise above 60 percent twice in his four full years as the starter. This stat can be a little misleading because drops and throwaways can play a roll in driving a quarterback’s completion percentage down. Keep in mind though that Stafford doesn’t really need to be totally accurate when throwing to Calvin Johnson due to his insane catch radius. I think that balances any other factors.

You would think too that with guys like Johnson and nowadays Golden Tate at his disposal, Stafford would have a ridiculous number of touchdowns. Over the last four years, Stafford has tossed on average 28 touchdowns per year, which is pretty darn good. Unfortunately, when you look at the last three seasons though, ignoring his 41 touchdown anomaly in 2011, that number drops to 23.7. That second number is a lot more middle of the pack. Over the past three years as well, Stafford has been all up and down, finishing t-20th, 6th and 14th in touchdown passes. That range brings us to the next point.

Matthew_Stafford_2014Stafford lacks consistency, which is something teams desperately crave in a quarterback. Looking at this past year, Stafford toss multiple touchdowns in half of his games. At the same time, he also had four games where he failed to throw a touchdown pass. He also had five games where he threw for 300+ yards. That was juxtaposed to the three games though where Stafford failed to top 185 yards. And while you should dominate bad teams, none of Stafford’s 300+ yard days where against teams that finished in the top half of the league in pass defense and three of the teams were among the bottom five.

All quarterbacks should beat up on bad teams. However, good quarterbacks need to performance against good teams as well. That is something Stafford has really struggled with. Against teams that finish the season with a winning record, Stafford is a mediocre 3-24 in the last four years. That is downright pathetic. And this has to fall mostly on Stafford’s shoulders if he really wants to be an elite quarterback. He can’t blame a sub par defense or a shoddy running game. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers won Super Bowls with average defenses and mostly non-existent running games. It’s not easy, but it can be done.

Stafford has zero playoff wins, one Pro Bowl selection (after four other quarterbacks dropped out) and is still riding the one year where he put up Pro Bowl caliber numbers, and still failed to make it. And if all of this has failed to convince you that Stafford is simply an average quarterback, maybe this will. ESPN uses the statistic Total QBR to measure a quarterback’s overall contribution to a game and weights the performance based on the number of plays and the scenario in which certain events occur. It is measured on a scale of 1-100 with 50 being average. In his six total NFL seasons, Stafford has finished each year with a rating below 61, including this season when he posted a 53.5. That was worse than Jay Cutler rated. The same guy who was benched toward the end of the season due to his poor play.

Plain and simple, he just isn’t that good. The Lions are never winning a Super Bowl with Stafford under center. He does not step up in big games and displays incredible inconsistency. He might have a few dazzling games here or there but on the whole, he is a largely average quarterback who has a durable enough arm to throw the ball 600 times a season. On the whole, Stafford just doesn’t cut it.