NFL

Are you kidding me Mayock?

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NCAAF, NFL ,

Seriously? After all this time now he makes a change. Based on what? For those who are unaware, NFL Network draft expert Mike Mayock made a major switch today in his big board rankings. He moved former Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota ahead of his Florida State counterpart Jameis Winston. This may seem like no big deal on the surface because both players are still being evaluated but there seems to be no reason for the change. Mayock cited that the new rankings are being released with pro days being wrapped up but that doesn’t provide any answers either. Winston had a stellar pro day workout with only 11 incompletions on over 100 throws. Mariota on the other hand, threw only 7 incompletions but on only 65 throws. The numbers aren’t even what was concerning. The wide consensus following the workouts was that he had nailed it and Mariota was “underwhelming.”

With all of that said, I have no idea why Mariota would get the bump up to the number one positional spot for quarterbacks according to Mayock. He might just be one guy but he is a bit of a draft guru as NFL Network’s answer to Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay. What he says usually holds some weight. Now this makes me wonder if Mayock knows something the rest of us don’t. Has he been talking to teams who feel that Winston hasn’t won them over? Whatever the case may be, it raises some concerns, even if they are minor, about Winston.

Another report appeared today, which should also shake some confidence in the Winston camp. Tampa Bay hosted Mariota for a private workout earlier and Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dick Koetter called the workout “outstanding.” They raved about his footwork, athleticism and speed. The workout also came from the Bucs, not from Mariota. All of these signs definitely point to a boost in Mariota’s draft stock. After being considered the lock as the top pick for so long, Winston’s move down comes as almost a shock for fans.

However, I think this might be part of the learning experience from last year. Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater had a very tough pro day last year and that led to him dropping all the way from the first projected overall pick down to being actually selected thirty-second overall. Bridgewater went on to be arguably the best rookie quarterback in the NFL last season. That mistake on many team’s part probably underlines why teams have not made as big a deal this year about Mariota’s lackluster pro day. It doesn’t mean a ton but these trends should be noted at the very least when it comes to projected who might be selected where.

To be honest, my assessment of the two is that Winston is more pro ready with a lower ceiling, while Mariota is a little rawer with a much higher ceiling. In the short term, Winston will be a much better pick. He will make a big difference for a team next season but he won’t improve a ton over his time in the league. He will likely become a steady, above average starter if he can work out some of his accuracy issues and ball security. Meanwhile, Mariota has the potential to be a game changer once he fully develops. He will take at least one season to get comfortable in a true pro system but he has enough talent that he could become an elite quarterback if he gets the right coaching and stays healthy. His concerns will be more just grasping the offense gameplan.

If I had to pick though, I think I would go with Mariota. He projects better in the long term and he definitely has shown more maturity off the field. He has demonstrated his ability to buy into a system and he definitely a player that I would feel comfortable leading my team for the next 15 years.

NFL Cornerstones: Cornerback

Chris McGlynn Cornerstones, Football, NFL , , , , ,

Cornerstone players will be a recurring theme on Second Look Sports where I look at each position in a certain sport and I choose a cornerstone player to build my franchise around. I have a couple of parameters for this selection though. I will factor in age, potential, injury history, experience, reputation and production. I think this should be a fun and interesting topic to discuss on here. I hope you all agree.

The selection: Joe Haden, Cleveland Browns
Honorable Mentions: Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson, Chris Harris Jr., Kyle Fuller, Vontae David

Sorry Richard Sherman, you don’t make the cut here. Sherman is a fantastic corner who has a nose for the football and can make some of the most athletic plays by a corner in the last couple of years, but he has some things that hold him back here. First of all, he plays on only one side of the formation. In Seattle’s defense, Sherman does not have to play both sides of the field, which means that he doesn’t always matchup with the best receiver on the field. That drains Sherman of some of his versatility. Don’t get me wrong, Sherman is a fantastic corner, but he is not the guy I want to build around right now.

Instead, I head over to Cleveland, where perennial Pro Bowler Joe Haden plays his football. The 26-year old has good size at 5’11” and excellent awareness on the field. The thing that many will focus on from the very beginning here is the number of interceptions has in his career. Sherman more picks, despite playing one less season. Haden does have a solid 0.22 interception per game ratio, which is on par with both Patrick Peterson and Vontae Davis. However, at corner, it is not always about interceptions. A true lock down corner does not allow his matchup to catch the ball. No one does that quite as well as Haden.

Over the past five seasons, the Browns’ cover man has ranked in the top six for passes defended, with the exception of 2012 where Haden was injured. Haden is also averaging an absurd 17.4 pass break-ups per seasons, despite only playing 11 games in 2012. If we exclude break the number down to knock downs per game, his number of 1.21 ranks better than everyone else considered. In fact, Sherman is the only other corner with an average above one. Haden is test early and often and he clearly holds up well under the constant bombardment.

Haden is a talented tackler as well. He records roughly 4.25 tackles per contest, best of any of the corners considered and the only player with an average over 4. The one knock here is that Haden often get help on his tackles. He has been assisted on roughly 18 percent of his tackles throughout his career, which is essentially identical to Sherman. Meanwhile, Peterson dominants as an open field tackler as he has been assisted on only 9 percent of his takedowns. Haden obviously has a nose for the ball, but he is not the only one in on the play.

What makes Haden the ideal corner is his consistency. He has tallied at least three interceptions per year over the past three seasons. He has registered at least 18 passes defended when he has played at least 15 games. Haden is a force to be reckoned with at the cornerback position. There few players who manage with the same amount of poise and skill at the position. He still has four strong years left of him playing at the highest level. If I needed to pick a corner to build a defense around, Joe Haden is my guy. No other corner gives me the combination of intangibles, talent and versatility that Haden possesses. Without a doubt, he is one of the best corners to take the field in the past 20 years.

Rivers leaving SoCal?

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NFL , , , , ,

The rumors continue to swirl about various NFL franchises making the move to Los Angeles. It likely will not be for a couple of years now that a team actually makes the transition. However, the teams most frequently involved in talks of a move to Southern California are the Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams and oddly the San Diego Chargers. The last one is a real head-scratcher. The Chargers had an average attendance last season of 65,530 per game last season on average. The maximum capacity of their stadium is only 70,561. The fan base is available for the Chargers in San Diego but that doesn’t seem to be enough. It might be soon enough though if the team is serious about keeping its best player.

Since 2006, Philip Rivers has been the starting quarterback in San Diego. As the starter, he has led the Chargers to five postseason appearances and really been the focal point since LaDainian Tomlinson left for New York. He has been named to the Pro Bowl on five separate occasions. Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now and while he might not be the best in the business. He is a well above average starter. However, with all the rumors circulating that the team might be moving, Rivers has made it clear that he does not want to resign with the Chargers. His contract is set to expire after this season so that makes this a very time sensitive issue.

The potential solution rumored to swirling around the winds of NFL news is to trade Rivers away to a quarterback needy team to cash in on a top draft pick. The Chargers hold the 17th pick in this year’s draft but with many teams in the top five wanting a bonafide franchise signal caller, there is a market for Rivers. The issue is that whatever compensation San Diego might get will likely not be enough to really offset the loss of Rivers. If the team traded away the five-time Pro Bowler, they would likely be looking to land Marcus Mariota from Oregon as his replacement.

However, as it has been well-documented, Mariota likely will not be a Day 1 starter. He will need a year to work out the final kinks in his game before taking over as the starter. The Chargers would more or less be pushing back any chances of competing in the playoffs for about two years, at least, with Mariota at the helm. The reality is that this team needs to run the risk of Rivers leaving. There is no guarantee that the organization moves out to LA and even if they did you can hope that maybe Rivers will change his mind.

Sure it would be nice to get a security policy in case Rivers does leave but the smarter way for San Diego to do that would be to draft a quarterback in the second or third round that has the potential to replace Rivers in 2016 if he does leave. With Brent Hundley, Byrce Petty and Garrett Grayson all expect to go in one of those following two rounds, the Chargers could find a talented, quarterback with a lot of potential. It would be an ideal situation where you let him learn from the veteran Rivers for a season before letting him take the reins the following year.

My final evaluation, keep the sure thing rather than gamble your future on something that may or may not happen. Rivers is on the cusp of very good and elite. He is not someone you can simply replace. Only netting the second, or potentially later, pick in the draft should not be enough to tip the Chargers’ hand. Selecting Hundley or one of those other players in a later round is a much safer plan and it allows you to cover your bases, as the Chargers clearly want to. Word I am hearing is that the San Diego organization is looking to just ride this year out and wait to see what happens with both relocation and Rivers’ contract. My opinion: keep number 17 in Charger powder blue. He gives them the best chance to win, and after narrowly missing the playoffs last year, the Chargers could be poised to make a postseason run. Under a rookie quarterback, none of that is possible.

When does the risk outweigh the reward?

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL, Social Issues , , ,

When you have fame, glory, all of the money you can imagine, admirers and thousands upon thousands of fans cheering your name on a weekly basis, why would you ever give it all up? When the risk outweighs the reward. But the real question is how much risk could you possibly have to overshadow all that the NFL can offer. Chris Borland demonstrated that maybe all of the lavish rewards that come along with being a football player in the U.S. are not all they are cracked up to be. Borland announced on Monday that he would be walking away from football after just one year in the league, citing concern over suffering from extensive head trauma.

What makes Borland’s retirement so surprising is that he was one of the best, young, promising linebackers in the NFL. The 24-year old from the University of Wisconsin-Madison played incredibly well this season, better than just about any linebacker in the league for the second half of the year. Then, just like that, he walked away. I commend Borland in his decision to choose his health over the sport he loves. That had to be a tough decision but it is one that I am not surprised to see him make.

Borland’s concern of injury is a reasonable one, especially with all of the turmoil surrounding the NFL regarding the rising injury toll and residual effects from playing extended years in the league. Hundreds of former players are suing the league for improper care following their playing days while dozens of others have died or committed suicide from adverse health effects linked to the NFL. Borland is not the first to pass up on his prime playing years in order to protect his health; he isn’t even the first this offseason.

Jason Worilds finished up the 2014 season in Pittsburgh with his contract set to expire. Many expected Worilds to be paid handsomely based on his previous two seasons of production in which he had racked up 122 tackles and 15.5 sacks from his outside linebacker position. Then, in a shocking turn of events, Worilds announced his retirement from football, at the age of 27. He would only have been entering his sixth season in the NFL had he stayed and likely had a couple good years left in him. Instead, Worilds chose to cash in on his five great years in Pittsburgh and hang up his cleats.

While Worilds decision was unexpected, I do not think anyone saw Jake Locker’s announcement coming. In 2011, the Tennessee Titans invested their first round selection in a fleet-footed kid out of the University of Washington named Jake Locker. Locker showed flashes of potential with his slow improvement over his first three seasons in the league. Following his rookie season, Locker was named the starter in Tennessee and that’s where the problems began. Locker missed 23 games over the next three years in the NFL, with notable injuries to his shoulder, hip and foot. Locker was still expected to come back and fight for the starting job this year for the Titans before, at the age of 26, he decided to retire.

All of these players, Borland, Worilds and Locker, represent a growing problem in the NFL: players are beginning to feel that the cons outweigh the pros. These three players were in, or were entering, the prime of their careers. And instead of cashing in on their athletic abilities, they decided to step away in order to protect themselves. The NFL has been making strides in lowering the injury risk for NFL players, but unfortunately, the league is far from eliminating or even reducing the risk by a considerable margin. Football is an extremely dangerous sport to play and for the first time, the NFL is beginning to see some of its talented young players walk away from the money on the table. For so long, the league has simply been able to count on top athletes having an ever-burning desire to play football. Now we are beginning to see that the allure is fading.

I think these three have sent a powerful and important message to the league and its fans. Borland, Worilds and Locker are essentially saying there is more to life than football. To be honest, I think this could be a rising trend in the NFL in the coming years as medical research on former and current players becomes more and more revealing. The risk of playing football is reaching a point where there is no reward to outweigh it. Sure, it will be nice to be a multimillionaire more fame than is conceivable for most people. But if you are unable to comfortably live due to the injuries sustained from your time in the NFL, then what good does all of that do? The league has stressed player safety as being a top priority but clearly not enough to reassure its players that the problem is under control. The players are everything in this league and if they begin to walk away, the consequences could be scary.

Processing the NFL’s crazy 24 hours

Chris McGlynn Football, Free Agency, NFL , , , , ,

Everyone new that the start of the new league year was sure to bring some fireworks. I don’t think anyone saw that coming though. We are only a little over 24 hours into the 2015 NFL league year and the chaos is only now beginning to subside. We saw the Seahawks land the highest paid tight end in history. Darrelle Revis rejoined his old team for a small fortune. The Eagles continued to wheel and deal under Chip Kelly. Even Ryan Fitzpatrick changed teams (wait that happens pretty much every offseason). Time to take a second look at some of the teams involved in the fray after the dust has started to settle.

Winners:
This does not mean these teams won free agency, which, according to Michael Schottey of Bleacher Report, may not really matter. Either way, these are the teams who are in the best shape following the first day of signings.

Seattle Seahawks: No matter what you give up, getting arguably the best tight end in the NFL is a good deal. The Seahawks did give up All-Pro center Max Unger and their first round pick, but centers tend to be easier to replace than tight ends and with an historically week tight end class scheduled to hit the NFL next year, this was a good move. The Seahawks really need to work to rebuild that offensive line as both Unger and Carpenter are in new homes heading into next year. Still, for the defending NFC champions, this makes Russell Wilson even more deadly. Bringing in Cary Williams as a nickel corner doesn’t hurt either.

New York Jets: It is hard to look at the Jets and not think that this team looks infinitely better than it did on Sunday. The Jets have shelled out a lot of picks and money to do so but New York has made major strides in its rebuilding process. The secondary immediately becomes one of the best in the league signing Revis and Buster Skrine. The offense looks a lot better with the addition of Brandon Marshall. James Carpenter could prove to be an asset as well. The Jets were also smart to release Percy Harvin rather than give him the $10.5 million he was due. Bringing in Ryan Fitzpatrick is an upgrade over Geno Smith, especially under Chan Gailey. There is still more work to be done but the change is drastic.

St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford and his mega contract is gone. In return, the Rams now have Nick Foles suiting up. Both of these players are coming off of injuries but you would have to imagine that Foles is in much better shape. Bradford tore his ACL for the second straight season while Foles broke his collarbone. The Rams also managed to avoid giving up anything more than a fourth round pick this year. They might potentially lose a second rounder next year if Foles meets certain criteria but as a Rams fan, I am much happier having Foles as my prospective starter.

Losers

Philadelphia Eagles: On one hand, I look at the Eagles defense and I am impressed with how much better it looks now. Signing Byron Maxwell, Walter Thurmond and trading for Kiko Alonso will do that for you. However, I flip to the offensive side of the ball and I cringe. The Eagles are now without their starting quarterback, running back or leading receiver from a season ago. Pair that with Todd Herremanns leaving for Indianapolis and the Eagles have a lot of holes to fill. Signing Ryan Matthews could be the answer at running back but he is very injury prone, as is new quarterback Sam Bradford. Chip Kelly has taken the couple of questions surrounding Philadelphia and multiplied them ten-fold.

Denver Broncos: The Broncos did not make any splash signings and no one really expected them too. But the players they let walk away really hurt. Denver lost starting tackle Orlando Franklin to the division rival Chargers. Terrance Knighton also informed the Broncos that he would not be returning next year. Couple those two departures with Julius Thomas signing with Jacksonville and suddenly the Broncos are down three starters from 2014. With Nate Irving and Rahim Moore still unsigned, the Broncos could lose a few more starters before free agency is all said and done.

Indianapolis Colts: Indy has spent a combine total of $64.2 million on four players. The average age of those four players is roughly 32. These players all have big names but none of them are likely to make the impact the Colts are paying for. Andre Johnson is not going to return to Pro Bowl form any time soon. Neither is Frank Gore. Kendall Langford is a nice addition to the defensive line but pairing Trent Cole across from Rasheed Mathis give the Colts one of the oldest starting outside linebacker duos. With better players available, the Colts could have found a way to spend this money a little more wisely.

Free agency is far from over but after the first day or so of player signings, mixed with all of the crazy trades, this how the league appears to be trending. Some other things to note would if Oakland lands DeMarco Murray, the free agent class suddenly looks much better. New England will once again sit out on over spending for free agents, but don’t be surprised to see a trade involving the Patriots to surface. Lastly, the Saints have actually set themselves up fairly well for the coming future but their moves in the coming days will dictate whether or not this can continue to be a successful offseason. I will definitely be back with more in the coming days as more agents begin to sign.