NFL

Falling 49ers

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, Free Agency, NFL

San Francisco seemed to have a revelation on its hands two years ago. At this time in 2013, the 49ers were about a month removed from a Super Bowl loss to the Baltimore Ravens. However, it was the team’s first trip to the NFL Title game since Steve Young was under center back in 1994. The Niners seemed set for years to come with a young gunslinger with incredible speed running the show in Colin Kaepernick. He was supported by a dominant running game led by Frank Gore and had Pro Bowl caliber receivers in Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree. He had a top-tier offensive line in front of him as well. San Francisco’s defense ranked as the best in the business, with talent at all three levels. Fast forward these past two years to now and everything is falling apart. It is time for this Bay Area team to begin a rebuild.

The 49ers are seeing the foundation of the team crumble before their eyes. Aging running back Frank Gore is headed to Philadelphia. Michael Crabtree is searching for a new club to sign with. All-Pro guard Mike Iupati is entertaining other offers. Defensive stalwarts Justin Smith and Patrick Willis both announced their retirements. Oh and Jim Harbaugh is in Ann Arbor. This team is going through an extreme makeover right now and it will likely continue in the coming days as free agency opens. The 49ers have some major holes to fill and will not be able to in just one offseason.

Let’s start with Gore’s departure. The blow is lessened by his already declining play last year and the presence of Carlos Hyde but still this changes the dynamic of San Francisco’s running game. Neither Gore nor Hyde were transcendent in 2014 but together they formed a pretty good backfield tandem. Now Hyde is left to pick up the slack and it is unclear if he has what it takes to do that. Hyde is a downhill runner, much like Gore, who will drag a defender or two along with him but he is very limited as a pass catcher. Gore excelled in the pass game, meaning that the Niners will need to find a way to replace that element of their offense.

Crabtree’s imminent move out of San Francisco leaves the 49ers with very little talent at wideout. While he was not as productive this past seasons as he was in years past, Crabtree still provided Kaepernick with a big target. Boldin is still a good receiver, but as he will turn 35 this October, he is past his prime. The Niners have been searching for new talent at wide receiver for years now, adding players such as A.J. Jenkins, Brandon Lloyd and Quinton Patton in recent years, but none has turned into a solid contributor.

Iupati has been an integral part of San Francisco’s dominant ground attack in the past few seasons. If he leaves, the 49ers will be scrambling to find a replacement. Already, cracks have started to show in the offensive line, as they allowed the third highest number of sacks last season with 52. The two teams who allowed more are Jacksonville and Washington and the team that allowed the same amount was Tampa Bay. No, matter how you look at it, that is not good company to have.

For Smith and Willis, the impact will be felt fairly quickly but will not be as severe as many fear. This 49ers defense was outstanding last season ranking fifth overall in yards per game allowed and tenth in points conceded per game. Willis missed a lot of time last year due to injury and Smith saw his numbers slip. Their leadership will be sorely missed but San Francisco will recover well. Chris Borland is already in place to fill the void of Willis and with over $21 million in cap space, San Francisco could make a run at top defensive ends in free agency like Greg Hardy or B.J. Raji.

The 49ers have some work to do defensively but with most of the defense staying intact, offense will be the priority. The 49ers will still be competitive this year but look for the team to try to find new ways to utilize Kaepernick. They will also add a veteran running back, potentially C.J. Spiller or Ryan Matthews on short, “prove it” deals. The draft will be very important as the Niners are sure look to add a top end receiver and help along the offensive line. This team will still be competing for a playoff spot come December next season, but with how tough the NFC is, it will be a year or two before the cherry red and gold make it back to the postseason. Sure some rebuilding is needed, but much of the foundation can still stay the same.

NFL Cornerstones: Free Safety

Chris McGlynn Cornerstones, Football, NFL , , , , ,

Cornerstone players will be a recurring theme on Second Look Sports where I look at each position in a certain sport and I choose a cornerstone player to build my franchise around. I have a couple of parameters for this selection though. I will factor in age, potential, injury history, experience, reputation and production. I think this should be a fun and interesting topic to discuss on here. I hope you all agree.

The selection: Earl Thomas, Seattle Seahawks
Honorable mentions: Rahim Moore, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Harrison Smith, Devin McCourty, Tashaun Gipson

If speed kills, strength intimidates and Earl Thomas has both. The Seattle free safety is a bullet flying around in the secondary, simply wreaking havoc. Thomas is a dominant defender on one of the best defenses in NFL history. That right there should speak volumes about his play. There are several other talented players at the free safety position but comparatively, none of them bring the incredible cumulative skill set that Thomas does.

Thomas has some of the most important attributes to playing safety in the NFL, but he has some other traits that set him apart. Thomas is still young, at just 25-years old and 5 years played in the league. His youth spells years of elite production to come. And he can be counted on to stay on the field. Since joining the Seahawks in 2010, Thomas has yet to miss a game, starting every single one of them. He has dependability and consistency, something many of the other players considered do not. Thomas’ biggest competition came from a fellow member of the 2010 draft class.

Devin McCourty burst onto the scene in his rookie season with 7 interceptions and 17 passes defended. He has yet to ever match that kind of productivity. Not that anyone every really expected him to based on the absurd level at which he played. Over their careers, McCourty and Thomas have posted very similar stats in their respective five-year span. It makes the decision between the two very difficult.

As a pass defender, McCourty does have a slight advantage. He has recorded 17 interceptions in his career to Thomas’ 16. That is very close but McCourty blows Thomas out of the water when it comes to disrupted passes with the split standing 58 to 38. However, that could also mean that McCourty is thrown at more. Either way, McCourty has topped Thomas in two of the most important categories for free safeties. The question remains how does Thomas get selected? Well…

Thomas is a far superior tackler than McCourty. Thomas has racked up 442 tackles or 88 per season. His Patriot counterpart has only 388 or roughly 77 a year. Thomas is all over the field, getting involved in as many plays as he can. Not that McCourty doesn’t but Thomas certainly does it better. In terms of making things happen when they make the tackle, the two once again are inseparable. Both have forced eight fumbles in their career. Thomas has a slight advantage here though with his four fumble recoveries to McCourty’s one. Both have almost identical run stopping numbers as well with 13 run stuffs for McCourty and 11 for Thomas.

It is near impossible to separate these two based on statistics alone. However, based on their skills there is a bit of a gap. McCourty and Thomas have very similar body types, both measuring in at 5 foot 10 inches. Thomas does weigh slightly more at 202 pounds compared to McCourty’s 195. However, Thomas’ blazing speed, impeccable awareness and superior strength set him apart. You can argue that Thomas has better running mates than McCourty but McCourty’s surrounding talent is Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. Not to mention that McCourty benefits from playing under one of the best defensive coaches of all-time.

Simply stated, this is a very close call. However, I like Thomas’ tenacity and speed. Those two things make him a dynamic player, not to mention that they are traits that you cannot coach. On top of that, Thomas is two years younger than McCourty, giving him hopefully a little bit larger window to play at an elite level. Either one would be great to build at defense around, but Thomas’ physical tools make him the better selection.

For more Cornerstone selections, click here.

Shocking trade changes the landscape of the NFL

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , , ,

It might have only been a swap of two players but the impact is immense. A trade that no one saw coming was agreed upon today between the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles swapping to big name players. The Eagles sent star running back LeSean McCoy to the Bills in exchange for the promising Kiko Alonso. The trade will not be finalized until Tuesday because that is the official start of the new league year but it seems pretty safe to assume that this deal is going to go through. The deal is a shocking one that will impact much of both team’s offseasons.

If I am an Eagles fan, I am not happy right now. Sure, Alonso is one of the most talented young players in the league but he is still relatively unproven. He has played one season in the NFL in 2013 and then missed all of 2014 with a knee injury. So even with how productive he was as a rookie, Alonso is not a guarantee, particularly coming off the major injury. This also comes off as Head Coach Chip Kelly showing he will not be bullied in Philly. He landed yet another ex-Oregon player for his squad and while I think Alonso will be a boost to a battered linebacking corps, the team definitely had other needs.

On top of all of that, McCoy is now a Bill. Philadelphia just sent the best running back in franchise history packing because Kelly “did not like his contract.” With how much the landscape of the league has shifted to a pass-happy one, McCoy certainly does carry a hefty price tag at tail back but his impact on the game expanded well beyond the ground game. The man known as Shady did it all in an Eagles uniform. He racked up 1300-plus yards rushing in three of the past four years. He also caught at least 40 balls every year of his career but this last one. McCoy is a multifaceted player with the big play ability to break a game open. He will be sorely missed in Philly next year.

For the Bills, this shores up their injury riddled backfield. The addition of McCoy also ensures that C.J. Spiller will be on his way out, as he has already announced to the media. It also lessens the Bills’ concerns at quarterback. This takes a lot of the pressure off E.J. Manuel to lead this offense and gives him a new weapon in the passing game. Concerns have been raised about McCoy’s ability to hold up under the stress of another season of 300 plus carries but the likelihood is that Fred Jackson will spell him and keep his carry count down closer to 250 on the season. Rex Ryan has always been a fan of having multiple backs to shoulder the load. The Bills managed to do a lot to help their offense with this acquisition and avoided hurting their defense. Buffalo’s defense ranked in the top five last season even without Alonso and will be ready for the challenge again with few starters likely to be leaving.

What this means for both teams going forward is that their offseason plans have now altered. The Bills, who sit without a first round draft pick this season, will likely focus on adding depth to its front seven and offensive line with their draft picks. It also leaves them with plenty of money to resign a couple of defensive studs as well. There is no doubt that this team will be in play for a big name corner as well as Ryan loves cornerback depth. For the Eagles, they now jump into the top five of teams with money to spend this offseason. That could mean that they can lock up Jeremy Maclin to a long-term deal as well as take a stab at a big name free agent to solidify that defense. Byron Maxwell is already rumored to be headed to the City of Brotherly Love. Could Ndamokung Suh join him to solidify this defense? That is now a possibility with the $48 million the Eagles now have to spend. With no clear starting running back on the roster, the Eagles now become players to draft one of the talented rushers in this year’s draft.

Both teams ensured that they will look different heading into next year. It seems like the Bills will be buying into Rex Ryan’s ground and pound mentality with the two-headed dragon in McCoy and Jackson. Meanwhile, the Eagles are showing commitment to rebuilding a defense that let down the team in big games last season. Kelly also officially put his stamp on the team in his new role as head of personnel. Lots of work is still left to be done on both sides but this is clearly a big jump-start into the reshaping both teams are doing to make a run at the playoffs in 2015 after narrowly missing out on the action last season.

NFL Cornerstones: Middle Linebacker

Chris McGlynn Cornerstones, Football, NFL , , , , ,

Cornerstone players will be a recurring theme on Second Look Sports where I look at each position in a certain sport and I choose a cornerstone player to build my franchise around. I have a couple of parameters for this selection though. I will factor in age, potential, injury history, experience, reputation and production. I think this should be a fun and interesting topic to discuss on here. I hope you all agree.

The selection: Luke Kuechley, Carolina Panthers Honorable mentions: Paul Worrilow, C.J. Mosley, Chris Borland, Curtis Lofton, Bobby Wagner

Hard to argue with probably the most productive linebacker over the last three years. Luke Kuechley since entering the NFL in 2012 has been a stalwart on a very good Carolina defense. He began his blossoming career with a Defensive Rookie of the Year Award and he continues to impress. Kuechley has set himself apart from his peers by simply dominating the position. The most talented middle linebacker the league has seen since Ray Lewis is rolling through his career. There are a number of young up and coming linebackers in the NFL but Kuechley is the cream of the crop.

For starters, the Panthers defensive mainstay has never missed a game in his three years; he also started every single one of them. He has youth, at the ripe age of 23, potential, as a former first round draft pick, and talent, based on his incredible production. Kuechley is also an all-around stud. He has the ability to play the run or the pass better than just about any linebacker does in the league. It all starts with his tackling. Kuechley has led the league in tackling in two of his three seasons; he finished fourth in 2013. He has registered at least 150 tackles in every season. He also demonstrates an ability to make both open field and gang tackles on the field. He is one of the best tacklers in the league and at middle linebacker, fundamental tackling is the backbone of success.

To his ability as a run stuffer, Kuechley has proven to be an asset over a liability. Kuechley has 29 run stuffs in his career, with some solid consistency in recording them. He has tallied at least eight in each of his three seasons. For a comparison, Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner only has 16 in his three-year career. Kuechley’s totals have marginally declined each year, which is mildly concerning but assuming her continues to produces with consistency, he will be a piece of a great rush defense.

Kuechley is even more prolific as a cover man. His numbers in pass coverage are impressive in general. The former Boston College All-American has 26 pass deflections since 2012. Again, Kuechley has never tallied any fewer than 8 in a season. His 26 total disrupted throws is only one less than Curtis Lofton has in his entire 7-year career. Wagner only 14 pass deflections over the same span as Kuechley. The Panthers’ defensive quarterback was only one of three linebackers to record 10 or more pass deflections in 2014, and the only middle linebacker. That coupled with his tackling ability makes him ideal to drag down players down in open space as is usually required of coverage linebackers.

Linebackers often thrive on big plays and Kuechley has also been an elite source of turnovers and impact plays in career. In his 3 years, Kuechley has accounted for four forced fumbles, seven interceptions and a forced fumble as well. He has proven that he can force turnovers in multiple ways. He is a dynamic player that makes plays all over the field. Winning the turnover battle is the most crucial part a football game. Having a game changer like Kuechley makes a huge difference.

Kuechley is playing at a Pro Bowl level already as a 23-year old. If that is indication of how talented he is, he will likely be a Hall of Famer one day. He is the unparalleled best middle linebacker in the NFL, at any age. He is an elite tackler, top pass defender and excellent run defender. No one is capable of putting up the same numbers with any form of consistency. The one thing that would likely put Kuechley into the category as one of the best defensive players of all-time would be if he was a more prolific pass rusher. However, Kuechley is still an iconic player who will dominant the league for the next dozen years. He is easily the best to make as a cornerstone linebacker in the NFL.

Adrian Peterson’s bold stand

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL

Roughly six months removed from a horrific scandal, Adrian Peterson is stealing headlines again. As the NFL Combine wraps up, the chatter among the league about the exciting prospects has been quieted. Instead, fans, coaches and other players alike watch as Peterson begins a war against the Minnesota Vikings. The former MVP was suspended by the NFL this season for beating his three-year old child. Rumors surfaced that Peterson was not happy with his franchise’s response to the allegations and later the support team officials provided. Peterson decided that he no longer wishes to play for the Vikings as it was announced today that his agent had a heated discussion with Vikings’ Vice President of Football Operations that Peterson will never play for the team again.

This whole situation is getting out of hand quickly. Just a few short weeks ago, Vikings’ officials entertained the media, explaining that they were excited to get Peterson back on the field and of course, the team wanted him back. Now, it does not seem like a happy reunion is on the horizon. For the franchise’s all-time leading rusher, his time in the Twin Cities is at an end. I am reading reports that the Vikings are unwilling to trade Peterson and want him to remain with the team. Meanwhile, it appears Peterson has once again made it public that he wants to play for Jerry Jones in Dallas. Time to roll through some possible Peterson scenarios.

What probably will not happen, is the Cowboys landing AP. The Cowboys are cash-strapped and have their own free agent priorities. Peterson will count $15.4 million according to Spotrac, making him just about impossible for the Cowboys to afford. With Dallas ruled out, and we can likely cross off any chance of him going to a division rival, the question remains where else could Peterson wind up next season.

Cleveland could be a major player as this all unfolds. Cleveland has a couple of young backs who have had middling success in a running back by committee setting. Landing Peterson in the backfield could solve a lot of the Browns offensive problems. It certainly makes the job for whomever the Browns have under center, whether it is Johnny Manziel, Brian Hoyer or someone else, infinitely easier. The Browns also have the assets to land a player like Peterson, with two first round picks in this year’s draft and just short of $50 million in cap space. Not likely that Peterson is satisfied with going to a perennial basement dweller in Cleveland but the Browns went 7-9 this year with very little offense. This added boost could be all they need to make it over that playoff hump. And in a year where there are going to be a lot of big name free agents at wide receiver, the Browns could construct a solid offense to pair with their stellar defense.

Another team that has to jump to mind is Indianapolis, with their less than ideal situation at running back The Colts are in the midst of negotiating a new deal for Andrew Luck, but with almost $38 million available for Indy this season, the Colts could afford to land the star rusher. Indianapolis would have to find some assets to send over to Minnesota but judging by the Vikings’ predicament, the deal might come off a little cheaper than would be usually expected. Unfortunately, the Colts will likely want to save their picks and cap space to bolster their defense. Still would be a great fit.

Two last wildcards to land the veteran running back are San Diego and Seattle. With all of the injuries the Chargers had at running back this past season, a sturdy replacement could make sense. Giving Philip Rivers an elite rusher that he hasn’t had since Ladanian Tomlinson left the Chargers could make this offense incredibly scary. For Seattle, the only reason this is even being mentioned is because of the situation surrounding Marshawn Lynch. Lynch is apparently mulling retirement and if the Seahawks believe he is heading out of the league, they could make a splash to land another massive star in their backfield. Not overly likely, with Russell Wilson’s contract yet to be decided but still would fit a need if Lynch did in fact call it quits.

With all of this turmoil and chaos surrounding Peterson at the moment, I think it will eventually just blow over. There are few teams in the NFL willing to pay upwards of $15 million for a running back. Not to mention that after a year out of the league and Peterson not getting any younger, it might be difficult to find a buyer at his expensive price tag. In reality, I think the Vikings’ will find a way to smooth things over down the line and get their priced ball carrier back in a purple uniform. Still, with the NFL you never know, so this should be a fun situation to keep an eye on.