NFL

NFC Playoff Scenarios

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , , , ,

Week 17 in the NFL is approaching quickly and while the playoff picture is beginning to take shape, there is still a lot of shuffling around that can occur. I am going to take some time here to explain all of the scenarios and then tell you which I think is the most likely.

Here is what we already know: five of the six teams getting into the playoffs have been figured out. Seattle, Dallas, Arizona, Detroit and Green Bay have all earned playoff berths. That is about all that has been determined in the NFC. There is an incredible amount of moving around that can occur in the final week. Let’s start looking at some of the possibilities.

For Seattle, a win would mean home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Seahawks control their destiny and beating Saint Louis at home on Sunday would make Seattle a legitimate threat to return to the Super Bowl as long as the Packers and Lions do not tie this weekend and Dallas does not win. That is really specific but that would give the Cowboys a tiebreaker over Seattle. The Seahawks can still hang on to a home playoff game even with a loss to the Rams if the Cardinals lose as well but the Hawks would not have a first round bye. I think a Seahawks win is the most likely outcome. The Rams have been up and down all year and Seattle seems to be hitting its stride.

Dallas is in a weird spot between the first, second and third seed. Jerry Jones’ team can’t go any lower. A win over Washington is essential and the only way Dallas earns the first seed is if the Lions and Packers tie this weekend while Seattle wins or Arizona loses. It is an odd scenario that would trigger a tiebreaker over Seattle because Dallas beat them head to head but lost to Arizona. That means Dallas would need Seattle to win the division so that the tiebreaker with the Cardinals does not come into effect. The Cowboys need a lot of help too to get that second seed. With a Cardinals loss and a Seahawks loss on Sunday the Cowboys would lock up a first round bye, even if Washington beats them. Dallas could also end up second if the Lions and Packers tie, the Cardinals win and the Seahawks win. The Cowboys will more likely be playing as the third seed come wildcard weekend as I don’t see both Arizona and Seattle falling or a tie in the NFC North title game. I do think Dallas will trounce Washington though to gain momentum going into the playoffs.

The Lions have quietly lined themselves up for home field advantage this season. Detroit will finish as the first seed with a victory in Green Bay and a loss by the Seahawks. Most of what happens to the Lions depends on a win over the Packers. Even if Seattle wins, Detroit will still have a first round bye if it holds off Aaron Rodgers and company. A loss at Lambeau will set the Lions back to a wildcard spot as the sixth seed. Detroit cannot earn the fifth seed because of tiebreakers the Cardinals and Seahawks hold. A tie against Green Bay could make things weird. Detroit would win the division but would be stuck as the third seed if Dallas and Arizona or Seattle wins. That is extremely unlikely but it could happen. Unfortunately for Lions’ fans, sixth is where I think Detroit will finish. Winning at Lambeau field has been a tough thing to do for a very long time, especially against Aaron Rodgers.

The Cardinals will need a win over the 49ers but must rely on some outside help to get a first round bye. Assuming Arizona wins, then Seattle must fall in Saint Louis and the Lions must win in Lambeau for the Cards to clinch home field advantage. Bruce Arians’ squad has a tiebreaker over the Lions but not over the Packers, meaning a Detroit win is pivotal for the Cardinals chances. A loss against the 49ers would mean being the fifth seed or even the sixth seed if the Packers and Lions tie. Arizona will win the division with a win or tie and a Seattle loss. A tie against San Francisco plus a Dallas and a Detroit or Green Bay win would make the Cardinals the third seed. All these potential ties make the NFC a crazy place. I think Arizona finishes as the fifth seed based on a likely Seattle victory no ties between Detroit and Green Bay.

Speaking of the Packers, Green Bay has a lot of shuffling to do. A win over Detroit means a division title and a first round bye with a Seattle win. If Seattle loses, then Green Bay has home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Arizona’s result does not matter due to a Packers’ tiebreaker. With a loss or a tie though, Green Bay would be a wildcard. A loss will mean the Pack is the sixth seed. A tie and a loss by either Arizona or Seattle would give the Packers the fifth seed. I think the Packers will win but so will Seattle meaning Green Bay will finish as the second seed.

The fourth playoff seed is the easiest one to figure out. If the Panthers win or tie with Atlanta then Carolina wins the NFC South and plays as the fourth seed. If the Falcons win then Atlanta is the NFC South champion and fourth seed. Finally, something is simple. I think Atlanta wins this game. Matt Ryan has been on a bit of a tear recently and the defense looks solid.

That’s all the possible scenarios here. So my wild card round matchups would be the Cowboys hosting the Lions and Arizona visiting Atlanta to play. Keep an eye for first round predictions once the playoff field is set. To see the AFC playoff scenarios, click here. Hope you enjoy this final week of regular season football.

Thursday Night Preview: Week 16

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL ,

Week 16 kicks off tonight with an AFC South matchup between the Jaguars and Titans. This is not one of the exciting games between title contenders but it is a battle to avoid finishing last in the division. It is also likely that one of these teams will be holding the first pick in the NFL draft next May and this game will play a part in determining which team that is. Tennessee is coming off a mostly awful performance against the Jets last week while Jacksonville lost a tough game in Baltimore. Both teams are really more suited to begin looking towards next year but that starts with tonight’s contest. We should see some young players getting a shot to impress the coaching staff and earn themselves a job for next season.

<span “font-size:13.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:”times=”” mso-bidi-font-family:arial”=”” roman”;=””>Tennessee has been a mess this year. They have had three different starting quarterbacks in as many weeks now with Charlie Whitehurst getting tonight’s start. The only other quarterback on the roster is the recently sign Jordan Palmer. If Whitehurst were to get hurt, Palmer would be thrust into action, who has only attempted 15 regular season passes in his six-year career. The running game has not been very effective for Tennessee either ranking in the bottom quarter of the league. Defensively Tennessee has managed to hold up through the air, sitting around the middle in terms of yards allowed per game but on the ground, the defense has gotten blasted for a league-high 140 yards per contest. Tennessee might be able to hold their own tonight though as Jacksonville’s running back Dennard Robinson is out injured. Look for the Titans to work hard shutting down the running game, making Jaguars’ rookie Blake Bortles have to start carrying the offense. Bortles has been turnover prone this year and the Titans will be hopefully the rookie coughs up a couple more if he forced to throw a lot. On offense, look for a lot of shorter passes, or at least passes that don’t travel too far in the air. Whitehurst does not have the strongest arm, but he can be very accurate on the short to intermediate distance throws.

The Titans are falling apart while the Jaguars are starting to build some momentum. The Jaguars beat the Giants a few weeks back and had an impressive defensive showing last week in Baltimore. That is not exactly stringing together strong performances but it is a start. Jacksonville will also be looking to avenge a two-point loss to Tennessee earlier this year. The Jaguars have improved since the last matchup as well. Jacksonville’s defensive line has been playing better. Unfortunately, the offense is still sputtering. The offensive line has been abysmal and the running game has faded a bit. However, I still think this team has enough talent to beat Tennessee, whose offensive line, and offense in general is banged up.

Prediction: The Titans have lost two many players on offense to compete. Between the two quarterbacks ahead of Whitehurst, the versatile Dexter McCluster and several offensive linemen out for tonight, I don’t expect much. Jacksonville manages to run the ball enough to keep all of the pressure off of Bortles and the Jaguars win 20-10.

What it means to bench Jay Cutler

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL ,

The Chicago Bears announced yesterday that Jimmy Clausen will be the new starting quarterback going forward. That means that the veteran Jay Cutler will be riding it out on the bench for the last two weeks of the season, barring an injury. This move was preempted by the comments released last week that the Bears’ front office and coaching staff was feeling some “buyer’s remorse” after signing Cutler to a big extension in the off season that has left the team both cash strapped and in an unenviable position. This is showing some signs as well that current coach Marc Trestman will not go down without a fight. Trestman’s job is rumored to be on the line and the Bears’ poor play of late is not helping his odds. Everyone has pegged this as being Cutler’s fault though. Clearly he bears the burden for the team’s failures right? Well maybe not. Let’s take a second look.

Cutler is actually in the midst of a career year in Chicago. I won’t go as far as to say that he deserved all of the money he makes right now but he is definitely a serviceable starter in the NFL. Cutler was on pace to put up over 4,000 yards, something he had never done as a Bear and he already threw for a career high in touchdowns. His completion percentage is well above his career average (66.1 compared to 61.7). His quarterback rating is also at a career high while his QBR (rating system that takes into account a quarterback’s full body of work in a game) is on par with past years. The league leading 18 interceptions jump out as an indicator of a bad year but in reality Cutler has been about as average as they come.

Does that mean that he gets a pass? Absolutely not. With an offense consisting of Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffrey and Martellus Bennett, you should not be a 5-9 team if you are a good quarterback. But all of the blame should not fall on Cutler. The Bears defense has been one of the worst in the league. This unit is giving up an average of 6.1 yards per play, tied for third worst in the league. Chicago has given up the second most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns. The run defense has been mostly average all year falling in the middle of the pack for yards and touchdowns allowed. On the whole though, the Bears have allowed the most points per game to opponents out of any team in the NFL. There Bears’ offense might not have lived up to all of its expectations but it is not hard to see why they get outscored week in and week out.

The rushing attack hasn’t been much help either. The Bears rank in the bottom quarter of the league when it comes to running the ball and Chicago’s running backs have fallen right in line with the league average per carry (4.1). By no means is the ground attack something Cutler can rely on if he is struggling or some of his top targets, most recently Brandon Marshall, are hurt. The Bears also do not have the luxury of being able to run because of how frequently they find themselves trailing in the second half of games.

So no, Jay Cutler should not be forgiven for every mistake he has made and immediately named to the Pro Bowl but the Bears woes this season do not fall all on his shoulders. Yet, time and time again, the quarterback seems to be the one who is praised when the team does well, and the one who is scapegoated when the team struggles. That is just part of the job. Cutler’s laid back attitude probably doesn’t help his image much either when it comes to fans who think he does not care enough to work harder. Unfortunately, this team needs a bit more than just an attitude change to compete again. It might begin with Cutler, but it certainly goes much deeper than that.

Monday Night Preview: Week 15

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL ,

Tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup features two teams who had higher expectations heading into this season. The 5-8 Saints take on the 5-8 Bears in Chicago. This game won’t do much for the Bears as they have already been eliminated from the playoffs but the Bears’ coaching staff could be coaching for their collective jobs. New Orleans, as poor as its record stands, is currently in first place in the NFC South and would jump a full game ahead of the division rival Falcons with a win tonight. This game should have a lot of tensions as these two struggling teams battle with completely different forms of motivation.

For the Bears, it will be a game of trying to figure out what is wrong with its abysmal defense. The unit has been given up an NFL-worst 29.1 points per game this season and ranks fourth to last in total defense. This secondary was gashed by injuries early in the season and since then has been torched by opposing quarterbacks. Against an electric Saints passing attack, look for Bears’ defensive coordinator Mel Tucker to bring the house early to throw Drew Brees off and get his defense off the field. Also expect the Bears to limit Jimmy Graham’s success with double coverage his way all night. When Graham is taken out of the game, the Saints tend to struggle. On offense, Head Coach Mark Trestman will likely look to find a balanced attack against a terrible Saints defense. Look for Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery involved a lot in the attack plan, especially with Brandon Marshall injured.

Meanwhile, New Orleans has to find some sort of plan to fix its defense. The unit is allowed the most yards per game in the league this year and sit only two spots ahead of the Bears for the higher amount of points allowed per game. There is also some talk that Saint’s safety Kenny Vaccaro could be benched for his recent poor play. The coaching staff is clearly looking to mix it up in an attempt to give this defense a spark. Offensively, the Saint’s will probably air it out early and often against the slumping Bears defensive back but expect Brees to look away from Kyle Fuller. The Chicago rookie has been a ball magnet and can cause trouble. Look for Mark Ingram to play a role but mainly later in the game when the defense is tired.

Prediction: The Saints come out firing early on but the Bears play with a lot of tenacity causing Brees to make some mistakes and keep the game close. Watch for Jay Cutler to play with a chip on his shoulder after the “buyer’s remorse” comments made this week by the coaching staff. This is likely going to be a shootout and it should be close, but the Saints need the win more and will come away with a 38-30 win in the Windy City.

The new Beckham mesmerizing America

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL ,

In the early 2000s, the United States saw soccer superstar David Beckham leave the English Premier League and venture into Major League Soccer. This spawned a huge uptick in soccer interest across the country. This was the big name player on the world stage choosing the MLS as his new home. Beckham retired some years ago from soccer but there is a new Beckham taking America by storm from East Rutherford, New Jersey.

The world was introduced to Odell Cornelious Beckham Jr. a few weeks ago on Sunday Night Football. The Giants took on the division rival Cowboys at MetLife Stadium that night. Beckham started just his seventh career NFL game in New Jersey and he made a name for himself with just one play. You can hear NBC commentator Cris Collinsworth say in the broadcast that it may have been the greatest catch that he had ever seen. Twitter exploded. ESPN had a field day. Athletes all over the US reacted. Little did we know that it wasn’t even the best we would see of the Giants rookie we would see this year.

The Giants would lose that game to Dallas but no one seemed to care. Beckham had already been producing well. Three weeks before that Cowboys game, against Indianapolis, the LSU product racked up the incredible catch with an 8-catch 156-yard performance. Then against Seattle two weeks before the Dallas game, matched up with one of the best cover corners in the league in Richard Sherman, Beckham registered 7 catches for 108 yards. And in San Francisco, the talented rookie had 6 grabs for 93 more yards. After Beckham’s unreal catch against Dallas he had a solid week against Jacksonville with 7 catches and 90 yards before exploding again for 11 receptions and 130 yards against Tennessee just last week.

Today, Beckham returned to New Jersey to take on rival Washington. He dominated the entire day with 12 grabs for 143 yards and three touchdowns. Odell’s athleticism and massive hands have been too much for defensive backs to handle week in and week out. Beckham has made Eli Manning look like a much better quarterback over the past 9 weeks that he has been playing, coming down with a number of ridiculous jump balls.

The collective body of work has already thrown Beckham into the Pro Bowl conversation with only ten games played. The Offensive Rookie of the Year award will likely go to either the Giants wideout or Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans. Numbers do not fully cover how incredible Beckham has been but they are still impressive. In his very short career, he has racked up 71 catches for 972 yards and 9 touchdowns. That is usually a pretty good rookie season for a lot of rookies. What is even more impressive is that those 71 catches come on just 84 targets. That is an unbelievable ratio, especially when looking at the rest of the league. Before today’s games, Roddy White and Kelvin Benjamin have the same number of catches (59) on 85 and 110 targets respectively. Beckham only had 69 targets.

This kid from LSU is exciting to watch and Giants fans have to be excited for his potential. It is a very small sample size but Beckham has exceled without having a full offseason under his belt. I am not going to say that everyone should expect this same production next season because receivers are often susceptible to that sophomore slump. But Beckham should be a top-5 receiver year in year out if he continues to play like he has this season. You have to wonder too how dangerous this Giants passing attack could be if Victor Cruz was healthy and drawing coverage from Beckham as well. The point is, don’t be surprised when this guy is dominating secondarys over the next couple of years barring injury. Beckham might turn out to be the best of this outstanding rookie wide receiver class. Only time will tell.