NFL

The fall of a Giant?

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL ,

It is no secret that the New York Giants are in free fall right now. Big Blue has dropped seven straight games, including the debacle in Jacksonville on Sunday. At this point, it is fair to start looking to the future as the Giants are guaranteed a losing record this season. They likely will be battling it out with Washington to avoid the bottom spot in the NFC East and New York will almost definitely land a top 10 pick.

A friend of mine recently mentioned to me that he was excited at the prospect for the Giants to have such a high pick. I figured that made sense. Any team with a top 10 pick has a chance to grab an impact player. But my friend stopped me and pointed out that the last top 10 pick the Giants had turned into Eli Manning. That shocked me a bit. Manning was selected a decade ago which meant that the Giants had avoided finishing in the NFL cellar for quite some time now. Eli turned out to be the best pick the Giants have made likely over that decade as well (maybe Odell Beckham Jr. will prove that wrong but for now it’s Eli). Yet, with their team’s recent struggles, Giants fans are beginning to call for drastic changes, including moving on from Manning.

I will say this bluntly: are you kidding me? You want to replace the Ole Miss product that won the Giants two Super Bowls? That just baffles me. Sure, you can’t rest on your laurels too long but honestly, I don’t think Eli is the problem. Jettisoning the best quarterback in franchise history is not a good idea. And yes, Manning is absolutely the best quarterback to ever don a Giants uniform. It may be hard to see sometimes but it is definitely true. I am also considering quarterbacks who played the majority of their career in New York, which rules out Fran Tarkenton and Y.A. Tittle. That leaves Eli’s biggest competition to be Giants legend Phil Simms.

Many Giants fans fondly remember Simms playing days of the 80s and 90s but he comes up short compared to Manning. The two have actually played a nearly identical number of games in the NFL (Eli has played one more), even though Simms played 14 seasons and Manning has only played 10. This is mostly due to Simms’ inability to stay healthy over the course of his career. Manning on the other hand has never missed a start since taking over the starting job as a rookie. That’s definitely a win for Eli over Phil.

Looking at pure passing stats in the regular season, Manning has a better completion percentage (58.8 to 55.4), more passing yards (over 5,000 more) and a better quarterback rating (81.9 to 78.5). Breaking down some of the stats to analyze a little deeper, Manning has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio (1.31) than Simms does (1.26).

Simms does have a better yards per attempt average than Manning does and was sacked nearly twice as much as Eli, which could explain the injuries. Simms also provided a bit more mobility than Manning does now, as Simms rushed for about three times as many yards as Manning has. Simms also has a better record through as the starting quarterback.

Both quarterbacks led their respective Giants teams to the playoffs in five different seasons. Both were equally as inconsistent as well. Outside of their Super Bowl runs, Simms amassed two touchdowns to six interceptions over seven games. Manning has the same numbers but in only three games. On the flip side, Simms won one Super Bowl in 1986 and Eli has two rings with wins in both 2007 and 2011. He is also great when put in clutch situations engineering 31 game winning drives (not including 5 in the playoffs which ranks as the third best mark in NFL history) while Simms only managed 17.

Both quarterbacks were great in their own right but the edge has to go to Eli. Eli has had more success even though Simms clearly had a better supporting cast. The Giants won the Super Bowl in 1990 while Simms was injured. If Simms had been that important to the team’s success there is no way that they could have accomplished that feat without him. Simms was even replaced the following season when backup Jim Hostetler outplayed him for the starting job in training camp.

It is time to give this Manning brother some credit and take him out of the shadow of his older brother. Eli has beaten Tom Brady twice in the Super Bowl while his Peyton has struggled to conquer Brady throughout his career. Eli has Lombardi trophies, two Super Bowl MVP awards and just about every meaningful passing record in Giants history. So don’t go calling to replace him quite yet. This Giants legend-in-the-makings means more to New York than Simms ever did.

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , ,

Week 14 kicks off tonight with two NFC teams fighting to stay alive in the playoff race. Dallas visits Chicago and both teams are desperate for a win. The Cowboys at 8-4 are in a good spot but can’t afford to give up any ground given how strong the rest of the NFC is. They are still on the outside looking in. Meanwhile, a loss for Chicago and a win from either Seattle or Detroit would eliminate them from playoff contention. This game has a lot of playoff implications so it should be a fun one to watch.

Dallas is coming off a beating they took at home to division rival Philadelphia. The running game failed to get going and the Cowboys’ offensive line finally showed some cracks as Tony Romo was sacked four times by the end of the game. It was also the first time since Week 1 that Romo threw more than one interception in a game. Dallas offense will be out to prove last week was a fluke and that they weren’t just getting into typical Cowboy December form. The defense also gave up a season high 256 yards on the ground to LeSean McCoy and company. Defensive Coordinator Rod Marinelli will need to get his front seven into shape if they plan to contain Chicago’s Matt Forte.

On the other side, the Bears are also coming off a humiliating loss on Thanksgiving to a division rival in the Lions. The Bears jumped out to an early lead over Detroit but falter and were down again by halftime, never scoring again after the first quarter. Calvin Johnson battered the defense and Matt Stafford began to pick apart Chicago’s defense. Mark Trestman is coaching for his job right now in the Windy City. The Bears could have some success spreading the Cowboys out and attack them down the field and through screens designed for Alshon Jeffrey and Forte. Defensively, look for Chicago to bring the house and bottle up Demarco Murray. The Cowboys have struggled whenever their running back has been unable to get on track.

Prediction: Dallas plays it safe early, getting Murray and Romo into a groove and jumping out to an early lead. Jay Cutler brings the Bears back but tries to do too much later in the game once the Cowboys have opened up their offense. Cutler has two costly second half interceptions and Dallas pulls away to win 31-17.

Johnny Florida

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL

The NFL season is entering week 12 and as always, the league is crazy right about now. Some teams are starting to drop out of playoff contention though. The Oakland Raiders were eliminated on Sunday and more are sure to follow.

I want to turn my attention the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have been underwhelming in 2014 posting a 2-8 record so far. The team is only two games back in the division but they do not have a win against a division opponent. The Buccaneers could be set to reload in the offseason though with a potential top-10 (or even top-5) pick in what is shaping up to be a very deep and talented draft. However, I think Tampa’s main priority should be someone who was already drafted.

One of the Buccaneers points of weakness this season has been quarterback. Josh McCown continues to prove that last season was a fluke and Mike Glennon looks like serviceable, yet replaceable backup. Clearly, neither one of the two will be starting next season under center, barring some sort of injury elsewhere. So I think it could be time for a fresh start for a former Heisman-winning dual threat quarterback, not too far removed for his days playing in the SEC, whose playmaking ability has created a borderline cult-like following.

Before I lose all my credibility, I do not mean Tim Tebow. I am talking about Johnny Manziel. This might still seem like a head-scratcher. Manziel has spent this season on the bench and has yet to prove himself in the NFL but there are a couple of reasons that I think Tampa is a fit for Johnny.

First, this is a Buccaneers offense that needs a shot in the arm. It ranks 28th in rushing and 19th in passing yards. I think that this could be a pivotal move to turn the Lovie Smith era around in year 2. Looking at the Bucs’ offense, you see a young, talented wide receiver in Mike Evans, who is coming off a 7-catch, 200+ yard performance against Washington. Evans has plenty of history with Manziel as they played together in college. Evans was also Manziel’s favorite target. The two combined for roughly 2,500 yards and 17 touchdowns in over their two years at Texas A&M. Manziel can also be a threat with his legs. He could provide a spark for Tampa’s anemic ground attack. This is also a team attempting to find its identity on offense. It presents the option to build around Manziel’s playmaking ability. I also think Lovie Smith’s disciplined coaching style would keep the rookie, known for his off the field antics, in line. Things could fall into place pretty well with a switch.

While Manziel is currently a member of the Browns, Cleveland seems set with Brian Hoyer as their quarterback and reluctant to let Manziel see the field. This could present a prime opportunity for Bucs to snag the former Aggie, and even a late round pick, in return for a disgruntled Vincent Jackson, whom the team is reportedly looking to move anyway. That could create a hole at wideout for Cleveland but with that top-10 pick, Tampa could easily target Alabama’s Amari Cooper. An offense featuring Manziel, Evans, Cooper and either a big-name free agent running back (Marshawn Lynch maybe?) or a rookie from a very deep draft class (Melvin Gordan perhaps?) could be downright scary. This just seems to make too much sense to me. Let me know what you think.

Ryan Tannehill on the way out?

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL

If you are surprised by this headline, you should be. It doesn’t really make a ton of sense. However, this is a legitimate consideration down in South Beach where the Miami Dolphins coaching staff is currently dissecting a 34-15 loss at the hands of the previously winless Kansas City Chiefs. Sure Tannehill didn’t look very good in the game, but I am shocked that I am seeing people calling for him to be replaced. It just does not add up to me that Miami would be looking to pull the plug on Tannehill so soon.

Let’s look at his stats. So far, in Tannehill’s very short career (only 35 games) he has thrown for 7,831 yards (roughly 225 yards per game), 40 touchdowns (just over one per game), 32 interceptions (just under one per game) and has an average quarterback rating of 78.6. Those numbers don’t jump of the page, but you need to look into them a little bit. Tannehill is only beginning his third season in the NFL. His rookie numbers are not that impressive but not many rookie quarterbacks’ are. From year one to year two, Tannehill threw 12 more touchdowns and for over 600 more yards, falling just short of 4,000 for the season. That is a nice improvement for just one year. His quarterback rating also jumped from 76.1 to 81.7. Statistically, there is some hope for him, even if he has had a bit of a rough start to 2014. (Stats from espn.com).

Because his stats are not eye popping in a pass heavy league, people argue that Tannehill is not a suitable quarterback. But can you really blame him for it? His supporting cast has been awful. He had the worst offensive line in football last year as he was sacked a league-high 58 times last year or 3.63 times per game. He also has not had much help in the running game either. The Dolphins ranked 26th in the NFL last season running the football and only mustered eight rushing touchdowns as a team, one coming from Tannehill himself. Then there are the receivers. I don’t really have too many statistics on this one but Tannehill hasn’t had much to work with. He has big play threat Mike Wallace who is a solid receiver but then the drop off following that is enormous. Rookie wide out Jarvis Landry and consistently average Brian Hartline are nice options and Charles Clay is a serviceable tight end but none of them really make Tannehill’s life much easier. They make a couple of plays here and there but none of them is a playmaker in an offense that desperately lacks one.

Now to break down Tannehill’s first games of the season. He looked average in the season opener against New England finishing with a completion percentage of 56.2 and throwing for 178 yards. He did not play great but he made enough plays to help the Dolphins win. The running game finally stepped up and made a difference for him making his life easier. Then the second week against the Bill, the Dolphins offense reverted to 2013 form. Tannehill got sacked 4 times and was asked to throw the ball 49 times as the running game was stagnant all day finishing with only 80 yards (Tannehill had 11 of them) at less than 4 yards a carry. He managed a touchdown pass but he also threw an interception. Despite him not playing well, he was still Miami’s best offensive player. Then yesterday against the Chiefs, Tannehill was truly at fault. He avoided throwing an interception but his completion percentage dropped below 50 and the running game did plenty to help him finishing with 132 yards excluding Tannehill at 6.9 yards a clip. Once again though, Tannehill was sacked four times and definitely felt the pressure.

What this long-winded analysis is trying to get at is that I don’t think it is fair to blame this all on Tannehill. He hasn’t played particularly well to start the year but he is not the only player failing to meet expectations. The running game has been up and down through 3 weeks. He still doesn’t have a go to offensive playmaker and he is still there as one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the game. If Tannehill continues to fail to show up, then maybe it is time to look elsewhere. Otherwise, benching the third year kid for a veteran back up in Matt Moore doesn’t add up. The Dolphins organization already knows what Moore can do and he is not going to be improving any time soon. Tannehill being as young as he is can still get better. If you ask me, they need to stick with this kid a little longer before they declare him a bust.

Monday Night Preview: Week 3

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL

Tonight will wrap up week three of the NFL season as the Chicago Bears visit the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium tonight. This is an inter-conference match up that features one of the NFL’s most potent offenses against one of the league’s best front sevens. This is an important game for both teams as they look to keep pace with the leaders in their division. There is also the interesting storyline of former Jets wide receiver Santonio Holmes returning to play his former team for the first time.

The predictions for this one are all over the place because both teams are so inconsistent. The Bears got shocked at home against Buffalo week one before taking a trip to the San Francisco 49ers new home where they completed a huge second half comeback to win the game late in the fourth quarter. The Jets handled the Raiders at home week one in what was an ugly game for both teams and then traveled to Green Bay where the outplayed the Packers in the first half, before blowing an 18 point lead and overturning their own scoring play, not by penalty but by an ill-advised timeout.

Both teams sit at .500 for the moment, but the Bears definitely have the momentum coming into the game. Quarterback Jay Cutler looked very comfortable in the second half of last week’s game finding his collection of big targets all over the field. Look for Cutler to continue that tonight with Jets cornerback Dee Milliner likely out for the game. Bears’ running back Matt Forte might find it difficult to get going in between the tackles against the Jets’ stout defensive front but if Bears’ coach Marc Trestman is creative with screens and counters, that could get Forte in some space and let him do some damage.

For the Jets, they have had the week to review what went wrong in their meltdown against Green Bay. The Jets’ best chance at hanging around in this game is to pound the Bears with the run. While they have improved from last year, the Bills pushed around the Bears in their first game, which could be a blueprint for success for this other New York team. Defensively, Jets’ coach Rex Ryan is going to have to balance the desire to get after Cutler and his fear of being burned by the likes of Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall and Martellus Bennett. That trio could spell trouble for a depleted New York secondary. Ryan might be better off running a lot of zone concepts in order to protect some of his young corners from going one-on-one with some of the league’s best receivers.

Overall, I think we are going to see two very different styles of offense as the Bears will run screens early and often while looking to take plenty of deep shots. The Jets will focus heavily on running the ball and keeping the ball out of Cutler’s hands. Their passing game will likely focus on short routes and high percentage throws, especially with Jets’ wide out Eric Decker being hobbled. This should be a competitive game but the Bears should prove to be too much for the Jets, as they can’t seem to find enough offensive firepower to support their reeling secondary. Bears win it with a late touchdown to seal the victory 27-17.