Round of 16 matchup between Belgium and the United States

The majority of the United States watched today as their men’s national team took on the mighty Germany squad. The U.S. fell to Germany 1-0 but managed to advance to the next round after Christiano Ronaldo ended Ghana’s dreams of advancing with a late goal to give Portugal the win. Ironically, Ronaldo was also the same man who set up the goal that prevented the United States from qualifying last week. Funny how these things happen.

On the flip side, Belgium just wrapped up group play with a 1-0 defeat of South Korea. They won all three of their group play games and sealed the deal as Jan Vertonghen scored the game winner despite playing with only ten men. It was an impressive display of resilience. Belgium looked shaky throughout, but for all the U.S. fans gaining a false sense of hope, know that Belgium means business.

This will be an intense match when these two teams, the United States and Belgium, take the pitch on Tuesday. It is hard to say what the outcome of this game will be based on prior results. Belgium beat the USA in a friendly match in Cleveland last May but that does not mean a whole lot. Belgium won 4-2 but two of their goals were scored by striker Christian Bentenke, who is not playing for Belgium this World Cup due to injury. The United States team also resembles nothing of what it currently looks like today. Eddie Johnson was one of the U.S. strikers and Clarence Gooden started next to Omar Gonzales at center back. Jermaine Jones, Matt Besler and Fabian Johnson all did not play in this game for the U.S. either. This time around should be very different.

Unfortunately for the United States, Belgium is a very good team that has an incredible amount of talent all over the pitch. The American midfielders will really need to step up their game if the U.S. expects to be competitive in this game. They looked very sloppy today as they had too many unforced errors. If they play similar to how they played against Germany today, the U.S. will most definitely be on their way home.

The keys for the United States in this game will be maintaining possession and attacking effectively. Having possession will limit the creativity of the Belgium midfielders and it will give their defense a much-needed reprieve. The U.S. had a record low in terms of possession during their game against Germany. The Germans had possession of the ball for 67.5 percent of the match. You can be sure Jurgen Klinsmann will be discussing that with his players this week. They need to be more efficient when they in a position to attack and work the goalkeeper. There is a possibility that Jozy Altidore will be back for the Round of 16 and the United States will need him if they have any hopes of advancing.

For Belgium, the keys will be moving the ball quickly offensively and spreading the ball out wide for cross opportunities. Belgium is extremely athletic and possesses the ability to kill opponents with their speed. With Eden Hazard and Dries Mertens creating a lot of the Belgium chances, they will be looking place through balls and win one on one battles with U.S. defenders who have been a step slow a couple of times in this World Cup. The other aspect of the game that Belgium could exploit the Americans on is the height they possess. Axel Witzel is 6’1″ and Marouane Fellaini is 6’4″. Together these two should find success in directed headers towards goal and giving the United States a lot to deal with.

Both sets of players will be looking to make a play that will announce to the world that they mean business. It should be a great game.

How hard is it to repeat?

The soccer gods really have it out for Spain. They have just become the first defending World Cup champion to be eliminated after the first two matches of group play. Spain and a good part of the world I believe were shocked by the sudden fall of the Spanish national team that was so dominant four years ago. It was not gradual either. Spain entered this tournament still maintaining the number one rank in the world. Suddenly, they have dropped two games by a combined score of seven to one. They were simply blown out of the water by Holland and Chile and it truly looks as if an era has ended for Spain. Andres Iniesta will not be returning, neither will Fernando Torres, Sergio Ramos, Iker Casillas, Pepe Reina, Xavi Alonso nor David Villa. This team is going to most likely be decimated.

However, this is not unheard of in international soccer anymore. At three of the last four World Cups, including this one, the defending champion has failed to make it out of group play. France, Italy and now Spain have all failed to return to the same form they were in during the previous championship campaign. It is shocking how quickly teams can fall apart.

Believe it or not, over the same time frame (twelve years) the NFL has seen similar problems. Of the twelve Super Bowl winners, starting with the 2001 New England Patriots all the way to the 2013 Baltimore Ravens, only six of those twelve teams even made it back to the playoffs the next year. Additionally, only the Patriots won back-to-back championships in 2003 and 2004. Those six unsuccessful teams fell apart over the course of less than a year and failed to even make it back for a shot at another championship.

Baseball has a very similar story. From the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks to the 2012 San Francisco Giants, only six of those twelve teams have made it back to the postseason the following year. None of them have repeated as champions. Again, only half of the teams who win a championship one year even make it back to the playoffs the next year. Baseball only has 10 of its team making the playoffs, the fewest of any major sport, making it even harder to make it back to the playoffs the following season.

I was surprised to see this trend across more than one sport. A lot of the issues with repeating as champions can be traced to lack of desire or drive. That edge you have when seeking that championship the first time around fades often times going into the next campaign as teams become complacent and rest on their laurels. Another key aspect is players looking for more money. This happens more in the NFL and MLB than in international soccer. Players who have a successful run in the playoffs look for more money and often become unaffordable.

This doesn’t completely explain the ass-kicking Spain got in the first two games but it certainly helps to identify where the issues may have started. Let me know your theories as to why the Spanish fell so far so fast.

Expanding goal line technology

I just read yet another reaction to the controversial and widely regarded as incorrect penalty awarded to Brazil’s Fred in the World Cup opener against Croatia. All of this talk has gotten me thinking about whether FIFA should find a way to solve this from happening. I keep hearing how it is part of the game and it keeps the human element but it does not seem right to me.

In many ways, I feel like Croatia was cheated of a chance to beat Brazil. Would if not have been more beneficial to introduce replay capabilities to review the legitimacy of penalties. I think it would make sense to add it. It would eliminate any bias or uncertainty from the official. It also would not make much of a difference to have the review. The official can simply add stoppage time to compensate for it. It seems only like a logical progression. Every other major sport utilizes replay technology, which is more than accessible.

It also helps in other situations as well. After watching Mexico play Cameroon and seeing on two separate occasions a goal wrongly disallowed for Mexico. Mexico eventually won the game 1-0 but what if they hadn’t. If somehow Cameroon had scored in the game and forced a draw, Mexico loses out on two points in the world’s biggest competition. They would have been robbed of a win they should have had. If the wrongly disallowed goals were reviewable and overturned then it wouldn’t be an issue.

I only see this benefitting soccer. It adds even more integrity to the game as now teams cannot win on a technicality or a mistake from an official. It makes the game much more fair. Not to mention no longer has to make embarrassing apologies for poor officiating. I don’t see a downside to this either. They could use the same technology that ESPN has on every play involving offsides, which clearly shows the correct call. FIFA has already embraced this integration of technology with the new goal line technology. It only seems like the next logical step.

Those are my thoughts on it. Let me know what you think.

Spain’s early demise

For anyone that read my predictions on the World Cup, you would be correct in saying that I was confident in my pick of Spain as the winner of Group B. I mean, come on, they are the reigning champions and still the number one team in the world. Apparently, that meant absolutely nothing to Robin Van Persie and company as they dispatched Spain to the tune of a 5-1 final score.

I realize the error I made when analyzing the pool before the tournament began. The Netherlands was playing with a chip on their shoulder. They were clearly the underdogs and they had been beat by this exact team four years prior to today in a battle for world soccer supremacy. Spain also had to fight off the feeling of being complacent and the feeling that they were going to win simply because they were thought to be the best. Holland demonstrated, really for the entirety of this match, their burning desire to get revenge. They were first to every loose ball; they were more aggressive in their defending; they were more confident in their strikes on goal, converting five of them. They were simply the better team on the field rather than on paper.

The first take away from the match today has to be how poorly Spain played. They looked lackluster on offense and lazy on defense. Iker Casillas, who I lauded as being a special player for Spain, looked downright out of sync. He hasn’t been getting much time with the first team at Madrid and he certainly looked out of practice today. Casillas single-handedly gave away two goals today; one when he misplayed a cross from a free kick and one where he essentially pass Van Persie the ball in front of the net. I think Casillas will improve from here as he gets into a better rhythm but that has to be concerning for Spain’s supporters. We also witnessed the continued fall of Fernando Torres as he failed to beat a defender one on one to score a goal on an empty net. I don’t think I need to say more than that.

Now, even though Spain had a terrible performance, that should not take away from what the Dutch did today. They played fast and incredibly tactical offense and they played smothering defense. Van Persie and Arjen Robben showed signs of being one of the most dynamic duos on the international stage accounting for four different goals in the match. The fact that Spain’s only goal came from a penalty should indicate dominant the defense played throughout the whole game.

Now here is the fun part: projecting what happens next. I think this puts the Netherlands in the position to sweep the pool and take first. That would mean they would match up with the runner up from Group A, a much easier game than having to likely play Brazil at home. They could make a bit of a stretch run and I think they will wind up in the semi finals.

As for Spain, I still think they move on taking second in the pool. That would likely mean that we would get a matchup of two underachieving teams, Spain and Brazil. It really could be anyone’s game and one of these two tournament favorites could be heading home very early.

The last thing I have to say is how much I enjoyed watching the Spain-Holland game. It was so energetic and fast-paced. It was very entertaining soccer. I simply cannot remember enjoying watching soccer as much as I did today. This might have been one of the best I will ever see. As always, I am open to comments. Thanks for reading.

World Cup Mania

With the World Cup rapidly approaching, there has been so much talk from every national team about injury news to who will start in Brazil. It has become borderline insane. I am going to go through and make my picks here on who will advance from each group and eventually pick a winner.

Group A

The first spot clearly goes to Brazil. I don’t see a single team in this pool as being capable of upsetting the host nation. They better get that stadium done on time. I really think that it will come down to some fast break opportunities. Brazil is just too fast for Croatia, Cameroon or Mexico to handle. That home crowd supporting them will certainly help ease the burden as they coast to 9 points.

The second spot I see going to Mexico. They looked pretty good last Friday against Portugal eventually falling one to nil. It was unfortunate to see that El Tri still is having trouble scoring but they did play well defensively. They killed on a set piece but they will work on that just a bit more before they kick off against Cameroon next week. Chicharito came on and played well for Mexico in the closing minutes. He will have to find his stride for Mexico to have any success.

Group B

This might have been the easiest group for me to pick. Clearly the top spot goes to Spain. They are the world’s number one and when you have players like Andrès Iniesta, Sergio Ramos, Gerard Pique, David Villa and Iker Casillas, you honestly have a shot to beat anyone. Villa has announced he will be retiring from international play following the World Cup but he scored both goals in Spain’s most recent tune-up so I think he still has something left in the tank.

The runner-up will easily be Netherlands. The Dutch were also the runner-up to Spain in 2010, that in the World Cup final. The scary duo of Arjen Robben and Robin Van Persie will likely be enough to carry this team offensively. Those two are more than capable of making plays on their own. I am really looking forward to watching the rematch of the 2010 final where I think Spain will drop its first point in a draw, but still win the pool on goal difference.

Group C

This one was a bit tougher to figure out. I really couldn’t figure it out. I ended up choosing the Ivory Coast. They have remained for the most part healthy (see Radamel Falcao of Colombia). Additionally, both Colombia and Greece are in a little bit of a slump. Colombia is now without their top goal scorer and Greece has been struggling to find the back of the net. I think the staying power of Didier Drogba and the creativity of Yaya Touré will carry this team into bracket play.

Colombia will sneak in as well edging Greece for the second spot. This is their first time in the tournament since 1998 so there is not a single player on this roster that has World Cup experience. Despite all of that, I think they will find a way to win without their top player. This is a talented club who will be eager to show the world that it can compete. I know Greece is good, I just don’t think good enough.

Group D

This group has a ton of big names but I am picking Uruguay to win this one. It has been widely stated that England is rebuilding and Italy is searching for goals. Uruguay is anchored defensively by Atletico Madrid’s Diego Godin. He has been the mainstay defensively and will continue to impress on the international level. Additionally, Uruguay has one of the world’s top scorers in Luis Suarez, who set the Premier League on fire this year scoring a league leading 31 goals this year.

I think the next spot does fall to Italy who proves to be too much for a very young England squad. England has some talented young players that could make them scary at the next World Cup but this year will be just a year of gaining experience as Italy rolls through to bracket play once again. Get ready for Mario Balotelli to get angry again and start on a goal scoring tear.

Group E

This was an interesting group to pick with Switzerland and France being the two bigger name teams. I see Switzerland taking the group with some definitive play. This team will not blow you away with its scoring ability but they play sound defense. They won both of their tune-up games over Jamaica and Peru respectively without allowing a goal. It is time to see what they can do against some better competition now.

After imploding at the 2010 World Cup, France will be looking for a bounce back tournament. After managing only two points four years ago I think they will likely grab six. They will be hurting with the loss of mainstay Franck Ribery, who will be missing the World Cup with a back injury. But that won’t stop Karim Benzema from scoring goals and pushing France through group play.

Group F

This group features one of the world’s top teams in Argentina who I see grabbing all nine points in this pool to win it and go on to the round of sixteen. Argentina has Lionel Messi. If you don’t know who he is go Google his name and then just watch in awe for a few minutes. (Same applies for Christiano Ronaldo and Luis Suarez) There is no one is this pool who has the same amount of play making ability to compete with Argentina.

The runner up would definitely have to be the next highest ranked team, Bosnia-Herzegovina. This team is fairly unknown, with only one big name star but they are a solid team who will simply outclass their other two competitors, Iran and Nigeria. They have Edin Dzeko, the same one who helped Manchester City win its first EPL title in 44 years, who is still a fierce striker and can carry this team.

Group G

Aptly named the group of death, this is the most highly competitive group that a world cup has seen in recent memory. Featuring two FIFA top five ranked teams, the number thirteenth ranked United States and the always dangerous Ghana; this group will be a slug fest. Likely though, Germany presses its will on its opponents with its stifling defensive and explosive offensive demonstrating why they think they are finals bound.

The runner-up will almost undoubtedly be Portugal. Sorry US fans, there just isn’t enough certainty with that defense or offensive fire power to make the plays to advance. Portugal has some of the world’s top players and even without Christiano Ronaldo (same as mentioned above) should be able to put away both Ghana and the US. They will be too well organized and skilled on the ball to fall to either of those clubs.

Group H

The final group probably had what I thought to be the most clear-cut winner in Belgium. This is a scary team that oozes both youth and athleticism. With a midfield that consists of Chelsea’s Eden Hazard, Zenit’s Axel Witzel, Manchester United’s Marouane Fellaini and Wolfsberg’s Kevin De Bruyne this is a squad to be reckon with. This might be the most complete starting eleven out of any team in the tournament.

The likely runner-up will be Algeria, just edging out South Korea and Russia for a chance to make it group play. After getting pummeled by Belgium, every one of these teams will be in a fight to win that second spot. This will be a tight contest that comes down to who will have more big play making ability. In group play, mental toughness does not matter too much yet. That will come in when it becomes win or go home.

Round of Sixteen

This round features some very entertaining match-ups, especially with the host Brazil and the Netherlands. I think Brazil wins that one in a close game to move on to the quarters sending the Dutch home much earlier than in 2010. The other team from Group B will likely fair better as Spain should steamroll a lucky to be there Mexico squad.

Group C winner Ivory Coast gets to find out just how good Mario Balotelli is when he is angry after likely being booked in at least one pool play game as Italy coasts to victory. On the other side, Uruguay should rough up a Colombia side still struggling to score as they face off without Falcao.

Switzerland gets something of a break playing the inexperienced Bosnia-Herzegovina as this is their first World Cup. Switzerland should advance to the quarters. Argentina matches up with a weakened French squad as they bury the French with some incredible goal scoring from Gonzolo Higuain and Messi.

Germany continues its dominance in Brazil as it rings out Algeria in what seems like almost a formality for Germany to reach the quarters. Meanwhile, Portugal makes an early exit as Ronaldo and Raul Miralles prove to not be fully recovered and exposed against a very deep Belgium squad.

Quarterfinals

The hosts bow out of the tournament as well as they get shocked by Italy for the Italians first return to the semi finals since winning it all in 2006. Another European power house advances as Spain sends Uruguay home after Uruguay struggles against the veteran Spanish defense. Spain is one game away from a return to the finals.

Germany once again meets a team that does not measure up to its elite level of play and mental toughness as they smack around Switzerland to move on to the semis. Belgium loses out on a chance to proceed any further as they run into an even more athletic and better skilled Argentinean squad who is hungry for a shot on knocking off the champions.

Semifinals

Germany and Italy meet in a thrilling European battle only to be won by the more mentally strong Germans. Germany does what it could not in South Africa and makes it to the championship game. In the other semifinal, Messi and company take it up another notch to edge Spain after needing extra time and send the reigning champions home empty handed.

Finals

Spain crushes Italy in the consolation game for third but the game that matters proves to be a thriller. Argentina gets revenge for 2010 and defeats the outmatched Germans. Argentina’s athleticism and scoring ability proves to be too much for Philipp Lahm and friends as Argentina wins its first World Cup since 1986 and its third title overall.

That is all I have for now. Let me know if you agree or disagree. I am always open to comments.