NBA Draft

NBA Mock Draft

Chris McGlynn Basketball, Draft, NBA, NCAAM ,

by Matt Luppino

The NBA Draft goes live tonight at 7 pm. Here are my predictions for how the first round goes:

  1. Minnesota Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Kentucky

Best player with most upside and fewest flaws.  A sure pick for the Wolves.

  1. L.A. Lakers Jahlil Okafor, F/C, Duke

The Lakers need a big guy more than they need another guard.  Kobe Bryant, Jeremy Lin, and Nick Young are all still there, so grab the polished Okafor and have at it on offense.

  1. Philadelphia Mario Hezonja, G/F, Croatia

A classic “why the $*&%?” moment out of Sam Hinkie, but there is a method to the madness here.  Apparently, he can shoot the lights out, which will help a hapless offense in Philly.

  1. New York D’Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State

Finally, someone on the Knicks that can shoot!  Russell can run the offense and put up points too, perfectly fitting into Phil Jackon’s arsenal.

  1. Orlando Kristaps Porzingis, F/C, Latvia

If he’s here at 5, Orlando is ecstatic.  7’1” with a jump shot.

  1. Sacramento Emmanuel Mudiay, G, China

Kings need a guard to feed Cousins and hopefully make him happy enough to stay in Northern California.

  1. Denver Justise Winslow, F, Duke

Winslow is a strong defender and an athletic slasher, but he shot over 40% from 3 as well at Duke.  With those numbers, he could be a beast.

  1. Detroit Willie Cauley-Stein, F/C, Kentucky

So what if Greg Monroe leaves in free agency?  Cauley-Stein will be cheap and probably better by the end of the day.

  1. Charlotte Devon Booker, G, Kentucky

Another great shooter, he can step in alongside Kemba Walker to take the spot of the since-traded Lance Stephenson.

  1. Miami Stanley Johnson, F, Arizona

Johnson is another athlete, who can bring some life to the Heat, who are still reeling from the loss of LeBron James, and maybe now Dwayne Wade too.

  1. Indiana Cameron Payne, G, Murray State

Paul George is healthy, and the front court in Indiana is still pretty strong.  A point guard will put it all together for them.

  1. Utah Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconson

Utah became a defensive stronghold last season, but lacked scoring.  Frank the Tank will not only slot right into the defense, but the big guy can shoot with the best of them.

  1. Phoenix Trey Lyles, F/C, Kentucky

He, like Okafor, is a skilled offensive big man, who could slot in alongside the big, lumbering Alex Len.

  1. Oklahoma City Justin Anderson, G/F, Virginia

The Thunder are only here because of injuries.  But in Anderson, they get a good outside shooter and a great perimeter defender – the last piece they might need to finally win a title.

  1. Atlanta Myles Turner, F/C, Texas

Fits in alongside the punishing defender in Al Horford and the skilled shooter in Paul Millsap.  Can fill in for either one off of the bench.

  1. Boston Sam Dekker, F, Wisconson

A good shooter and an above average defender, he boosts the Celtics immediately.

  1. PHILADELPHIA (Tony Wroten, 2 2nd rounders (35 and 37)) Tyus Jones, G, Duke

THAT’S WHAT HINKIE IS DOING WITH ALL THOSE PICKS!!!  In a shocker, and Milwaukee not seeing many players they need here, they take the back up point guard and more picks in a solid group of second round talent.  Meanwhile, the Sixers get the point guard they desperately need.

  1. Houston Bobby Portis, F, Arkansas

Portis is a big bruiser who went toe-to-toe with Kentucky a few times.  The dude can play.

  1. Washington Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, F, Arizona

With Paul Pierce and Trevor Ariza not getting any younger, a fresh infusion of defensive prowess and energy is a great fit here late in the first round.

  1. Toronto Kelly Oubre, F, Kansas

Oubre has a ton of potential, who will have the time to develop with the young, talented nucleus above the border.

  1. Dallas Jerian Grant, G, Notre Dame

Arguably one of the best scorers in the draft, Grant can play alongside either Rajon Rondo as the scorer, or Monta Ellis as the facilitator.

  1. Chicago Terry Rozier, G, Louisville

When Derrick Rose is off the court, the Bulls take a serious step back.  Here, they get their much needed asset at the point.

  1. Portland Montrell Harrell, F/C, Louisville

Now that Lamarcus Aldridge plans on leaving Portland, Harrell, skilled at both ends and the centerpiece behind another strong Louisville team, can begin his role as the successor.

  1. Cleveland Delon Wright, G, Utah

With how frail Kyrie Irving is and how inefficient the Cavs were without a true point guard this postseason, a ball handler has to be at the top of the list for them.

  1. Memphis Anthony Brown, G, Stanford

A 3 and D player, Brown fits in perfectly with the tough defense in Memphis, and Mike Conley will get him the ball.

  1. San Antonio Pat Connaughton, G/F, Notre Dame

Another great shooter and a really high energy guy on defense.  He is an excellent role player for Gregg Popovich.

  1. L.A. Lakers RJ Hunter, G, Georgia St.

Not just the star of the Cinderella Bulldogs, Hunter is a skilled scorer and ball handler, capable of stepping up for the now ancient Kobe.

  1. Boston Kevon Looney, F, UCLA

He might be really, really good at the stretch 4, so the Celtics can take that risk with Jared Sullinger proven in front of him.

  1. Brooklyn Michael Frazier, G, Florida

Deron Williams and Joe Johnson are getting up there in age, so this begins the new wave of Brooklyn talent.

  1. Golden State Nikola Milutinov, C, Serbia
    Scouting report: “Potential pick-and-roll monster that can protect the rim.”  Sounds like the champs to you?  He will be a bigger Draymond Green, alongside Draymond Green.

Comparing college big men

Chris McGlynn Basketball, Draft, NBA, NCAAM , ,

The NBA Draft is a long way off but there is already plenty of buzz surrounding the top pick. More specifically, many college and professional basketball fans alike want to know who is going to be the first selection in the 2015 draft. There are a couple of talented athletes expected to hear their names called early on in the draft. The talk of number one though has been mostly eaten up by Duke center Jahlil Okafor and Kentucky center Karl-Anthony Towns. Both of these highly recruited freshmen are expected to make the jump to the NBA following the close of the college season. One of them could very well be hoisting a national championship trophy come April but that a discussion for another blog post. I want to compare these two centers and come to a conclusion of which one of them should be selected first.

With how well both Okafor and Towns have played, both look NBA ready. Each, in his own right, is full of potential. They have shown that they truly look like men among boys playing against other college players. Comparing these two via statistics can be a little tricky though due to the wide gap in average minutes played per night. However, I will calculate them per 36 minutes (roughly what an NBA starter plays every night) to level the playing field. It should be noted though, right away, that Towns plays on 20 minutes per game, while Okafor plays 31.

Both players have been incredibly efficient this season. Okafor has hit an unreal 66.5 percent of his shots this season while attempting 11 shots per game. Towns, despite taking 5 fewer shots per game, is only hitting 55.3 percent of his attempts so far this season. Those stats are unaffected by the amount of time players spend on the floor each night. On top of that, Okafor matches up with much better than Towns does. The Duke center has played against 7 ranked opponents, including 6 against the top 15. Towns has only played four games against ranked teams, but 3 of them were against top 6 programs. However, Towns is the far superior free throw shooter, knocking down 79 percent of his shots at the line, compared to Okafor’s 54 percent conversion rate.

Examining the per 36 minutes stats turned out to be an interesting comparison. Towns averages 16.5 points while Okafor tallies 21.3 points per 36 minutes of action. That is a pretty large gap in points per night translated to a theoretical NBA level. Granted, it is not exactly fair to assume that both players will produce at the NBA level; in terms of what they are capable of now as scorers, Okafor has a clear upper hand. Both kids are above average rebounders as well. Towns snags 11.4 boards per 36 minutes while Okafor reels in 11.2.

Defensively, Towns clearly has the edge. Okafor only averages 1.62 blocks per 36 minutes, which is a nice number. However, Towns swats roughly 4.26 shots per 36 minutes of play, blowing away Okafor’s numbers. Towns clearly has immense value as a defensive centerpiece, meanwhile Okafor has shown that he has a lot of work to do defending in the paint. That statement is almost funny when you consider that they are the same height but Okafor actually outweighs Towns by about 20 pounds.

So here is my assessment on both. Okafor is an elite offensive big man. He hits an absurd percentage of his shots and scores at a high level. He cleans up the boards well, using his frame to box out opponents for rebounds. He needs to improve defensively and his free throw shooting. He is not a liability by any means but his play as the man in the middle will need to step up at the NBA level. As for the free throw shooting, we’ve seen what teams have done with guys like Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan, who are notoriously poor from the line.

For Towns, there is a lot of athleticism that can be turned into offensive prowess. He has not reached the point yet where he is a top scorer. He also has proven to be a good rebounder, capable of using his size to shield the opposition from the ball. On the defensive end of the floor though, Towns is a force to be reckoned with. His skills as a rim protector make him invaluable to a lot of teams at the next level. Towns knows how to position himself to force opponents to put up difficult shots and does an excellent job of contesting them as they are released. His impressive free throw shooting also keeps him from being the same liability Okafor could be at the next level.

Who to pick? This is a tough call. Okafor is much more pro-ready. Towns is slightly more of a project, but likely has more potential. His athleticism gives him the opportunity to morph into another Kentucky product that came before him, Anthony Davis. I am not saying he will reach that level, but I do believe he has that potential. The concerns for me are the low number of minutes leaving what Towns can do in more minutes a major question mark. Okafor also has the bonus playing more games against better opponents, erasing a lot of the questions that still remain for Towns. The Duke big man has also demonstrated a type of maturity that his Kentucky counterpart has yet to unlock. Either way, I am almost certain you will be hearing one of these two names called when Adam Silver walks to the podium this June. If I had to make a pick, I am likely going with Okafor. As a GM, you cannot argue with production, and he certainly has plenty of that.