The United States faces off with Ecuador on Thursday night in the Copa America Centenario quarterfinals. Many expected America to be here, but not against this opponent. Peru messed up what should have been a meeting between the U.S. and Brazil, with some help from Costa Rica.

America is favored to beat Ecuador now and advance to the semifinal round. All of that would be great and it makes you wonder if Jurgen Klinsmann has taken himself off the hot seat.

Klinsmann has had some mixed results in 2016 and continues to alienate players from MLS. Many felt that a poor showing in this tournament would see him packing his bags. We saw what failing to get out of group play can do to a manager of a very successful team (see Brazil). It was certainly in the realm of possibility that Klinsmann would be unemployed if his team failed to advance.

Even with the U.S. qualifying for the knockout stage, I don’t think Klinsmann has completely gotten himself out of hot water. The United States beat Paraguay and Costa Rica. The game against Los Ticos was spectacular and the Paraguay match was solid. However, they also lost in a rough offensive showing against Columbia. Now, the latter is the number three team in the world at the moment. Overall, this is a good slate of results for the Red, White and Blue.

But the U.S. hasn’t beat anyone they weren’t supposed to. Costa Rica was a toss up and Paraguay was a game America was expected to win. Columbia would have been a major victory. Those two wins were good results but nothing out of the ordinary. Really, the USMNT was lucky to win the pool.

A win over Ecuador would be significant, as they are currently ranked 13th in the world. A semifinal victory could be a huge sign of progress for this team. The US will likely play either Argentina, Chile or Mexico. Defeating one of those three teams would be a significant benchmark in the preparation for the 2018 World Cup.

Realistically, the United States has no chance of winning this tournament. They lack to the defensive discipline and offensive fire power to upset potentially three top 20 ranked teams in the world back to back to back.

So while the U.S. won the pool and enter the knockout stage with high hopes, realize that nothing significant has happened yet. They won the pool mainly due to Costa Rica stunning Columbia in the groups’ final game. Everything the Americans have done to this point they were supposed to do.

If they lose to Ecuador, this is an average tournament for the USA. If they beat Ecuador, Klinsmann and his group has a positive result to take from this tournament going forward. Anything past that would be phenomenal progress for the United States. Klinsmann is trending in the direction of safety but I don’t think he has made it quite yet.