Year: 2016

A vote against NFL playoff expansion

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL, Playoffs ,

This first weekend of the NFL playoffs was interesting to say the least. Brian Hoyer looked colorblind. Aaron Rodgers returned to superhuman form. Blair Walsh missed a chip shot. The Bengals and Steelers got physical with each other. It was equal parts surprising and exciting. For the most part, it delivered on all of the hype.

Roger_Goodell
Roger Goodell has pushed for expanding the NFL season either by adding two more regular season games or two playoff games.

There were definitely things that could have improved the weekend. A better showing from Houston. Shorter games maybe. The one thing that definitely was not missing? Another set of games in each conference.

Over the past few years, there have been whispers about the NFL expanded its current playoff field to 14 teams from the 12-team format. The highlights of the plan would be to add another game, increase the suspense and make the road to the Super Bowl even tougher.

After this season though, I cannot imagine a reason to include two more teams. It simply seems unnecessary. The quality of the competition would drop. Already we saw what happened with the weakest division winners making the playoffs. Houston was embarrassed by Kansas City and Washington found Green Bay way too much to handle. Any games added by introducing more teams would likely be a bust. Sure, the Jets playing the Patriots in Foxborough would be exciting. Watching Arizona trash a .500 Atlanta team, that is something I could live without. It wouldn’t be good football. These mid-tiered teams would just be outmatched.

Moreover, they don’t deserve it. People spent a great deal of time complaining about how weak the AFC South and NFC East was this season. Across message boards and comment sections, there were calls for the NFL to reformat so that these teams that won each division would not automatically receive a bid to the postseason. The argument was that they did not have good enough records to make the playoffs. In the case of Houston, that turned out to be true, as the Jets had a better record, but the Texans made the playoffs instead. If those teams, who were division winners, were not good enough to qualify for the postseason, then why would teams even further down the list be considered in playoff expansion?

I am of the mentality that for a team to really be good enough to compete in the playoffs, they should have a winning record. Only one team that did not qualify for the postseason this year had a winning record. That was the Jets. Some others were close, like Atlanta and Indianapolis, but they finished at .500. In other words, they were average. It is pretty easy to argue that the Jets did not deserve to make the playoffs either. New York only beat two teams with winning records this year. In the NFL, we don’t want to see average teams make the playoffs. We want the best of the best so we can see some truly iconic and terrific games.

In the NFL, teams are made to be average. It is rare that there are 14 teams nowadays that have winning records. Only once in the past five seasons have there been at least 14 teams above .500 at the end of the season. It is not easy to get those kinds of results any more. The league is full of parity. It is also a bit ambitious to expect close to half the league to win more than half of their games.

The morale here? 12 is good. 12 is great. That potentially even more than we need. It is nice to keep the hope of some Cinderella teams alive (see 2007 Giants, 2009 Cardinals). However, introducing even more of them would just be overkill. It would detract from the postseason more than it would add to it. Let’s just keep this as it is and put this conversation of expansion to bed.

NFL Playoff Predictions: Wildcard Round

Chris McGlynn Football, NHL, Playoffs , , , , ,

I wish I had a rooting interest in this year’s playoffs, but all the same, this is going to be a year to remember. There are tons of great storylines and some incredible games to be played and that starts today with Wildcard Weekend. Let’s start predicting some matchups.

Kansas City vs. Houston
2014 NFL Pro BowlFar from the sexiest matchup of the wildcard round. In fact, I would go as far as to say it is the least exciting. Still well worth watching though, which lets you know how great these playoffs will be. This projects to be more of a defensive struggle. Duane Brown’s injury is already a big blow to the Texans offense. Houston overall was lucky to make the playoffs. I think Alex Smith will show everyone his ability to handle the pressure of a playoff game. Charcandrick West and Stephen Ware should also help wear down a stout Texans defensive front. Mixing a mediocre Houston offense and the league’s third best scoring defense sounds like a recipe for disaster. I think the Chiefs will win this comfortably, 24-10.

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
DeAngelo_WilliamsNothing beats a divisional battle in the playoffs. If it couldn’t be Steelers-Ravens, (one of the best rivalries in NFL history) then I’m happy it could at least be Steelers-Bengals. These two split the season series, with the road team winning each matchup. I don’t think we are going to see that trend continue. I know Cincy is still without Andy Dalton but an even bigger blow comes on the other side. Pittsburgh will be without DeAngelo Williams, meaning that Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman will be carrying the load for the Steelers. For as much as this team relies on Ben Roethlisberger, I think they are going to be too one-dimensional. Throwing the ball constantly doesn’t allow you to control the game offensively and I don’t think the Steelers will be able to close it out late. A.J. McCarron has had a few weeks to learn the offense. Hue Jackson is one of the best offensive coordinators in the league and I think he will have a plan to upend the rival Steelers. Final score, Bengals 31 – Steelers 27

Seattle vs. Minnesota
Russell_WilsonMany are pointing at the midseason meeting between these two teams as the reason for why Seattle will win again. I don’t think it means anything how these two previously played. The Seahawks rode Thomas Rawls for a good portion of that victory. Rawls will not be playing on Sunday and neither will Marshawn Lynch. Russell Wilson is truly going to have no running game to support him in this one. Christine Michael will be the starting running back for the Hawks. Going up against a defense like Minnesota’s, that doesn’t bode well. That being said, this defense knows how to bottle up Adrian Peterson and will force Teddy Bridgewater to beat them with his arm. Bridgewater does not have a ton of weapons of his own in the passing game that will likely win one-on-matchups with this Seattle secondary. If this is a duel between Bridgewater and Wilson, I am taking Wilson every time. Seattle wins this blizzard bowl 21-10.

Green Bay vs. Washington
Kirk_CousinsThis is not a game many would have predicted at the beginning of the year. I for one though Washington would not come anywhere near the playoffs. I doubt many would have guessed that Green Bay would be on the road either. As much as I like Aaron Rodgers, especially in the playoffs, I don’t think he will be leaving the nation’s capital with a win. The Packers have failed to find any consistency on offense, whether it be running or passing. On the flip side, Kirk Cousins has been on fire for Washington. He’s been yelling, “You like that!” a lot, which is good news for this DC team. I think Washington’s passing attack will prove too much for an underwhelming Packers’ secondary to handle. Momentum has a lot to do with this one. Washington has won four straight while Green Bay has dropped its last two.  It will be close but I think Washington will win its first playoff game in 10 years, 27-24.

Potential NFL Cap Casualties

Chris McGlynn Football, Free Agency, NFL , ,

For 12 NFL teams, the focus remains on the playoffs. For the other 20 teams though, it is time to start thinking about the offseason. With a little (ok a lot) of help from Spotrac.com, I went through and determined the players on the 20 teams not in postseason action most likely to be cap casualties this offseason.

Falcons logoAtlanta Falcons
Tyson Jackson, DE
Roddy White, WR
Matt Bryant, K
Jacob Tamme, TE
Total Savings: $13.45 million
The first year of the Dan Quinn era got off to a good start, but there were some veterans on the team who definitely did not contribute to what their pay grade indicates they should have. Tyson Jackson failed to register a sack this season and has a $6.35 million price tag attached to him. Roddy White showed his age and is not worth the 6 million and change it would cost to keep him. Matt Bryant has been good but at age 40 he is reaching the end of his career and Atlanta can find a cheaper option. Tamme is a back up on the team and would save over a million if they cut him.

Ravens logoBaltimore Ravens
Ladarius Webb, CB
Dennis Pitta, TE
Total Savings: $11.5 million
Ladarius Webb just turned 30 and is on the downside of his career. Dennis Pitta has not been able to stay healthy over the past few years and is not worth the $7.2 million he counts against the cap next season. They will probably restructure Joe Flacco’s contract as well, as it would save them over $11 million in cap space. Maybe with the money, Baltimore can invest in a wide receiver.

Bills logoBuffalo Bills
Mario Williams, DE
Total Savings: $15.5 million
Paying $19.9 million for any player is ridiculous, especially when you can cut him to save that much. Rex Ryan has already made it clear that Williams will not be back. Look for the team to restructure Marcel Dareus’ contract as well to save an additional $6 million.


Bears logoChicago Bears
Antrel Rolle, S
Total Savings: $3 million
Rolle is 33 now and the Bears need to infuse some youth on this defense. Chicago actually has a ton of cap space to work with already (roughly $59 million). The Bears could create a ton of room as well if they can restructure Jay Cutler’s deal. It would save them about $13 million in cap space, giving them $75 million to spend.

Browns logoCleveland Browns
Dwayne Bowe, WR
Josh McCown, QB
Karlos Dansby, LB
Total Savings: $11.78 million
Cutting Dwayne Bowe doesn’t save a ton compared to what his cap hit was supposed to be, but he was so terrible in 2015, he needs to go. Josh McCown does not have a spot on this team either. Dansby is 34 and saves $5 million in cap space if he is cut. The Browns could rework Joe Haden’s deal to save an extra $7 million as well.

Cowboys logoDallas Cowboys
No one
Total Savings: None
This seems lame but really the Cowboys have no one to cut that will make a huge difference. At least no one they can afford to lose. I think Dallas will restructure Tony Romo’s and Tyron Smith’s deals though in order to free up close to $21.4 million in cap space.

image

Detroit Lions
Brandon Pettigrew, TE
Rashean Mathis, CB
Total Savings: $5.15 million
With rumors circulating that Calvin Johnson might retire, the Lions could have even more cap room. Eric Ebron has taken over for Pettigrew at tight end and Mathis is 35 already. Detroit desperately needs to infuse some youth and spend some draft picks on their secondary. If Megatron stays, don’t be surprised to see his deal restructured, as it would save the Lions over $12 million.

image

Indianapolis Colts
Andre Johnson, WR
Trent Cole, OLB
Erik Walden, OLB
Total Savings: $15.25 million
All three of these players are coming off disappointing seasons. Cole and Johnson had the worst seasons of their careers while Walden failed to make much of an impact.

image

Jacksonville Jaguars
Chris Clemons, DE
Dan Skuta, OLB
Total Savings: $7.6 million
Neither one of these guys has to go and I wouldn’t be surprised if they both stayed. They are just the two most likely players to get cut. Clemons only started seven games this year and registered just three sacks. Skuta was also a spot starter and with both Telvin Smith and Dante Fowler projecting as the starters for next season, he is more of a surplus at this point.

image

Miami Dolphins
Quinton Coples, OLB
Greg Jennings, WR
Total Savings: $12.75 million
Neither of these players did much in 2015. Jennings has been replaced in the offensive by both Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. Coples was a midseason signing with no track record. Cutting him costs the Dolphins nothing and saves them $7.75 million. Look for them to rework Ndomakung Suh’s and Ryan Tannehill’s deals to save about $25.1 million.

image

New Orleans Saints
Marques Colston, WR
Total Savings: $5.5 million
Colston started to show his age this year and will likely not be returning. The Saints won’t cut Drew Brees, most likely, but they will force him to take a pay cut for sure. He counts $30 million against the cap next year and the Saints cannot afford that.

image

New York Giants
Victor Cruz, WR
Total Savings: $8 million
The Giants can afford to keep Cruz, but at 29 with a long injury history, New York will likely let him walk. The Giants can also restructure Eli Manning’s deal to give them an additional $12.4 in cap space. That would give New York close to $60 million in cap room for the upcoming offseason.

image

New York Jets
Antonio Cromartie, CB
Breno Giacomini, RT
Geno Smith, QB
Total Savings: $13.5 million
The Jets are very deep in the secondary and with Cromartie already at 31 years old, New York can let him walk. Cutting Giacomini, who has been underwhelming, would let the Jets draft a tackle in the first round to fix that spot. Getting rid of Smith only saves $1 million, but it lets the Jets move on from a terrible draft pick. If the team needs money to make a big deal in free agency, Darrelle Revis’ contract can be reworked to save over $12 million.

image

Oakland Raiders
Sebastian Janikowski, K
Total Savings: $3.6 million
Janikowski is 37 now and has one of the highest cap numbers for kickers in the league. Like Jacksonville, Oakland doesn’t need to cut him, but if they cut someone, I think he is most likely. The Raiders already have $64 million in cap room.

image

Philadelphia Eagles
Brent Celek, TE
Total Savings: $5 million
Over the last two years, Brent Celek has clearly become second fiddle to Zach Ertz. He turned 30 this year as well, which doesn’t help his case. I think Philly will rework Byron Maxwell’s deal to save some additional space.

image

San Diego Chargers
Donald Brown, RB
Total Savings: $3.5 million
With Bradon Oliver, Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead already in San Diego, Donald Brown probably gets ruled as excess. Look for San Diego to rework Philip Rivers’ deal to save north of $11 million in cap space too.

image

San Francisco 49ers
Colin Kaepernick, QB
Erik Pears, RT
Total Savings: $15.5 million
With Anthony Davis potentially coming back in 2016, the 49ers won’t need the 33-year old Pears anymore at right tackle. We’ve also likely seen the last of Colin Kaepernick in the Bay Area. Cutting him will save the Niners $13.4 million in cap space.

image

St. Louis Rams
No one
Total Savings: None
Similar to Dallas, the Rams don’t have anyone they would like to cut to save money. We could see Robert Quinn’s deal restructured though to save St. Louis about $5.3 million.

image

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vincent Jackson, WR
Logan Mankins, LG
Total Savings: $16.8 million
Over the past two seasons, Vincent Jackson’s production has dropped off. Granted this season he was hurt, but he will be 33 in 2016 and Tampa needs to continue to build a young foundation. Releasing him saves the Bucs almost $10 million. Logan Mankins was great for a stop-gap solution but he is not the long term answer. Rather than keep him on another year, save $7 million and cut him now.

image

Tennessee Titans
Da’Norris Searcy, SS
Total Savings: $5 million
Searcy is not the answer at safety and the Titans do not need to have him count that extra $5 million against the cap while they find his replacement. The Titans need to draft well to get back into playoff contention.

No love for Lovie

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , ,

I was sitting playing NBA 2K last night, when my phone buzzed. It was a notification from ESPN breaking the news about now former Buccaneers Head Coach Lovie Smith.

I immediately opened my phone and texted Matt Lupinno, whom many of you know from his contributions to this site. Matt has been a Bucs fan for as long as I have known him. He was dumbfounded when he heard about Smith being fired.

Lovie Smith
Smith posted an 81-63 record while he was the head man in Chicago.

I have to admit that I am in the same boat. Lovie Smith is one of the better coaches I’ve seen in the NFL over the last 10 years. He has a career record above .500, he lead Chicago to a Super Bowl with Rex Grossman under center and posted five winning seasons in his nine year tenure in the Windy City.

I was confused after his firing from Chicago. The Bears went 10-6 that season and narrowly missed the playoffs. I’m even more perplexed by his firing from Tampa Bay. Smith took over a struggling Tampa team two years ago and laid the ground work for Tampa to be a playoff contender next season. His record, 8-24, isn’t very impressive, but it there were definitely signs of improvement this season.

Doug_Martin
A big part of Tampa’s rise to fifth was Doug Martin, who finished second in the NFL in rushing.

The Bucs were the NFL’s worst team in 2014, winning just two games. The offense was pitiful, ranking 29th in scoring offense and 30th in yards per game. The defense wasn’t much better, ranking 25th in both scoring and yards allowed. 2015 saw Tampa take major strides as the team’s offensive scoring jumped to 20th, the offensive yards rank moved up to fifth and the defensive yards rank pushed to seventh.

The only reason I can think of for Lovie being fired was because the scoring defense actually got worse. The Bucs were 26th in the league in points allowed per game this season. Smith is supposed to be a defensive guru, so that type of stat really reflects poorly on him.

Yet, it still shouldn’t have been enough for the Tampa front office to pull the plug. The Bucs are clearly trending in the right direction. This was a rebuilding project down in western Florida.

The Buccaneers had a rookie quarterback, left tackle and right guard starting this year. They had a second year starting wide receiver, the explosive Mike Evans, and sophomore tight end as well. Their number three receiver was an undrafted rookie. That group produced the fifth most yards in the NFL this season. That is tremendous for such a young group with so much room to grow.

On defense, the Bucs had four guys who started at least 11 games for them, all 25 years old or younger. By the end of the season, either due to injuries or poor play from veterans, Tampa was starting seven players 25 or under. The scoring defense was woeful but finishing seventh in yards allowed has to count for something.

With so much youth and potential, it does not seem to make sense to fire the man at the forefront of this rebuilding project. The fact that this team relies so heavily on it’s youth too shows how well Smith has done at building the team through the draft. The Bucs brought in Lovie to rebuild their team. He laid the foundation to build on and then the cut him loose, just before the team had a chance to really shine.

Jameis_Winson and Mike_Evans
Winston (left) and Mike Evans (right) were the Bucs first round picks under Lovie Smith.

If anything, I think this move actually hurts Tampa Bay. You have a rookie quarterback in place who is definitely your future at the position in Jameis Winston. You let him play for a year in an offensive system, then get rid of his head coach and force him to restart in a different system. That seems counter productive to Winston’s growth.

The real question now is who will replace Smith. There are not many ways in which Tampa can really find an upgrade. The only hire I think that would make sense is Adam Gase. He is a young coach with a lot of potential himself. Many have pegged him as the premier head coaching candidate for the last three seasons. He would present the Bucs with a coach that would grow with the team. Otherwise, I fail to see who the front office could target that would have more upside than Smith.

As for Lovie, I hope he isn’t out of a job for long. I could see him taking over the Tennessee gig, getting to work with the other quarterback selected at the top of the 2015 NFL draft. Other potential fits for Smith could be New York, where the Giants need a defensive make over, or Cleveland, who is in desperate need of a proven coach to help turn around their situation.

Well I definitely gave Lovie some love in this post. Hopefully, someone else will give him some soon.

 

The legend or the new guy?

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , ,

Editor’s Note: I started to work on this before the Broncos made their announcement. Still does not change how I feel about the situation. 

Peyton Manning or Brock Oswieler? This seems like a very simple question. It does not have a clear answer though. Over the past two months, the Denver Broncos accidentally created one of the biggest quarterback controversies we have seen in the quite some time in the NFL.

Peyton_Manning
Manning had the worst statistical season of his 17-year career in 2015.

Flashback to November 15, when Manning lead the Broncos against the rival Chiefs at home. Manning broke Brett Farve’s record for most career passing yards early in the game, but as the afternoon wore on, it became clear that he no longer looked like a future Hall of Famer. He looked a lot like Tim Tebow, if Tebow couldn’t run. Manning completed just 5 of his 20 passes and threw four of them to the wrong team. Peyton’s 17 interceptions are the second most by any quarterback this season, even though he only played 10 games. In the second half, Manning found himself on the bench and Denver gave Brock Osweiler his chance.

Brock Osweiler
Osweiler earned his first career start this season against Chicago.

The Broncos drafted Osweiler in the second round of the 2012 draft; the same one that produced Luck, RG3, Wilson and Cousins. Osweiler had waited a long three and a half years to get his shot at the starting gig. He made the most of it. He didn’t have the greatest second half against Kansas City, but the 25-year old showed poise as he helped Denver win four of their next six games. It seemed like Osweiler had the Broncos headed in the right direction. No one was looking to have Manning step back into the picture. It seemed like it was Osweiler’s team going forward.

Then Osweiler fell apart against San Diego. He had three turnovers in the first half. That led to Gary Kubiak pulling Osweiler in favor of Manning. The 39-year old played decently well in his first game action since November, but not enough to put the conversation to bed.

Now, Denver faces a very difficult situation. Do you play the young quarterback who carried you to the playoffs or do you return to the legendary five time MVP? It is not an easy question to answer.

Osweiler seemed to play well over his six starts before his benching. Manning struggled all season. However, Manning had a serious foot injury that he spent the last six weeks recovering from. Rumor is that he is completely healthy now.

Comparing their stats side by side makes it seem like Osweiler is the better option. On the season Peyton has 225 yards per game, 9 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in ten games played, with a completion percentage of just 59.8. Brock has 245.8 yards per game, 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in eight games played, with a completion percentage of 61.8. That is pretty easy to see on paper; Osweiler has outplayed Manning this season.

However, you have to take into account that Osweiler has never played in a playoff game before. Manning has played more than a full regular season worth of playoff games during his long career. Having playoff experience is priceless. The atmosphere is different. That is something Peyton is used to and Brock is not.

That being said, Manning’s career playoff record is far from stellar. He is 11-13 lifetime in the postseason. Those 11 wins are invaluable, especially when compared to Osweiler’s zero, but a losing playoff record does not inspire confidence.

Brock_Osweiler
Osweiler is in a contract year and will be an unrestricted free agent following this season.

While he is not in his best form heading into the playoffs, I think the Broncos should go with Osweiler at quarterback. I love Peyton. I love watching him play. I would love for him to get a second ring and retire on top like his current team president John Elway did all those years ago in a Broncos uniform himself. I also don’t see Manning returning to his pre-2015 form. All season he has struggled. For more than a year now, people have placed the cause of his declining play on injuries. Those injuries have been to his thigh and foot, never to his arm. He no longer has the same arm strength he once did. He constantly under throws receivers and often puts the target of the pass in a tough spot when he tries to compensate for the lack of arm strength.

I think Denver is trying too much to have a storybook narrative here. Yes, Peyton was one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever touch a football. That’s a general fact. It is also a fact that his prime is behind him and by delaying his assent to the throne, the Broncos are holding Osweiler back from entering his prime. Osweiler has shown he has all of the tools to be a great NFL quarterback and more playing time is the only way he is going to develop. He has already spent three plus years on the bench. There is not a whole lot more he can learn as a backup.

Denver has not had a strong running game for much of this season either and the offensive line has allowed for a ton of pressure to reach the quarterback over the course of the season. Peyton will not hold up under the constant siege. Osweiler, being 14 years younger and much more mobile, is better suited to run the Bronco offense right now.

The Broncos playing Manning should not discount their chances of winning the Super Bowl though. This is still the league’s best defense and Manning can make enough plays for Denver to win, especially when throwing to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. However, I think Osweiler gives them a much better chance to win, and less of the pressure then falls on the defense to be great.

Kubiak will start with Manning. If he struggles though, it will be interesting to see how long it takes before the Denver crowd forces him to change to the heir apparent.