I never thought I would see the day Tom Brady left the Patriots. I figured he would play as long as he could in New England and then retire. His decision to join the Buccaneers shakes up the entire league. Really, with Brady in Tampa, Philip Rivers in Indy and Teddy Bridgewater in Carolina, the quarterback market has shifted drastically. New England is now a major player, while the obvious candidates like Cincinnati, Miami and Los Angeles still remain.
With free agency mostly behind us, it feels like a good like to reexamine how the first round could shake out. After all, Minnesota and San Francisco now own an extra pick each in the opening round. While players like Jadeveon Clowney, Jameis Winston and Robby Anderson remain unsigned, there aren’t really any others that could influence the decision making behind a first round pick. With the dust mostly settled, here are the trades I like to go down.
Dolphins send 1.5 and 1.26 to Lions for 1.3
Buccaneers send 1.14, 2.45 to Arizona for 1.8, 4.114
Vikings send 1.22, 3.89 and 5.155 to Cowboys for 1.17
Broncos send 2.46, 3.83 to 49ers for 1.31
Trying to predict draft day trades is like trying to pick the winning lottery numbers. Fun, but nearly impossible. There will be plenty more moves I never saw coming. With just about a month until the draft gets underway, let’s dive in to this latest mock draft!
1. Cincinnati Bengals – Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
Unless Cincinnati suddenly gets an offer that blows them away, this will likely be the pick. He handles pressure exceptionally well and can throw on the move. Those will be important early on given the Bengals offensive line struggles.
2. Washington – Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
The likely smokescreen for Tua Tagovailoa took a hit with the coronavirus shutdown of the pre-draft process. I think Washington was always going to take Young. He has the physical tools all coaches crave and will be a Day 1 contributor.
3. Miami Dolphins via Detroit Lions – Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama
I still believe Miami needs to move up to secure this deal. If not, I think the Giants will be getting a lot of calls at pick four. Tagovailoa’s medicals looked good the last time we had an update. He would come into a situation where he can fully rehab for a year behind Ryan Fitzpatrick while this team continues to rebuild.
4. New York Giants – Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama
I expect the Giants to listen to some trade offers here, but when it’s all settled, I think Dave Gettleman will gladly just take an offensive lineman. They have their pick of a talented bunch and I think they will land on Wills. He is solid as a pass blocker with room for some growth in the run game. Keeping Daniel Jones clean has to be a priority.
5. Detroit Lions via Miami Dolphins – Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State
Detroit moves down and still lands the player everyone expects them to target. Even with Desmond Trufant on the roster, this team needs so much help at corner. Okudah is dominant in man-to-man coverage, using smooth hips and good closing speed to make a lot of disruptive plays.
6. Los Angeles Chargers – Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Los Angeles is committed to starting Tyrod Taylor in 2020. While that is a mistake for at least a dozen reasons, there is no one on this roster that looks the part of a franchise quarterback. Herbert has his knocks, but his arm strength and experience make him a solid fit for a Chargers team needing to rebuild.
7. Carolina Panthers – Isaiah Simmons, LB/S, Clemson
With Luke Keuchley gone, this feels like an obvious move. Carolina could target an offensive tackle here, but I think they trust their recent draft picks to step up. Simmons can be a game-changing player on defense and someone new coach Matt Rhule can rebuild this defense around.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers via Arizona Cardinals – Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa
They got the future Hall of Fame quarterback. Now Tampa needs to protect Brady. Trading up to get their pick of those remaining is important, and it’s far from a guarantee anyone will still be available at 14. Wirfs can step in and lock down the right side of the line immediately at either guard or tackle. His versatility is intriguing and his long-term potential at left tackle makes him the best option here.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars – Javon Kinlaw, DL, South Carolina
This vaunted Jaguars defense is in shambles. They spent some money on Joe Shobert, but that does not solve the underlying issues. Assuming Yannick Ngakoue stays, Kinlaw would be a great fit next to him. He can collapse the pocket and has the size to plug up the middle against the run.
10. Cleveland Browns – Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
Cleveland found it’s right tackle in Jack Conklin. Now it needs to find its left tackle. Thomas is a pro-ready option who can run block with the best of them. He has some raw power to work with. He is my favorite tackle in this class. I just don’t think his potential is quite as high the rest.
11. New York Jets – Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville
Joe Douglas has sunk a lot into the offensive line, but the outlook at tackle is still a bit murky. Becton needs a lot of refining, but based on raw skill and size, he has the highest ceiling of any tackle in this class. He should be in the mix at right tackle right away with the potential to kick to the other side with a bit of seasoning.
12. Las Vegas Raiders – CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
I had been mocking receivers to the Raiders for months. While they haven’t done much to address the need, I think they will wait given the relative depth of the class. Instead, they tab the best corner on the board. I don’t rate Henderson this highly, but it is unlikely he makes it to their second selection this round. He has the athleticism and size to develop into a solid starting option.
13. San Francisco 49ers – Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
The defensive line was getting too expensive to keep together, so John Lynch pulled a masterclass move to position himself to find his receiver of the future. Jeudy is the best route runner in the class and has plenty of athleticism. With Emmanuel Sanders headed to New Orleans, this fills a huge need.
14. Arizona Cardinals via Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Derrick Brown, DL, Auburn
Arizona can recoup the second round pick it gave up in the trade for DeAndre Hopkins. This might be best case scenario as well for the Cardinals defense as they land a talented interior option. Brown shows flashes of being an elite pass rusher and should contribute against the run. He fits the build of a 3-4 end with good upside.
15. Denver Broncos – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
Courtland Sutton is a great starting option. However, he needs a partner in crime. Lamb should benefit from playing with an arm like Drew Lock’s. Sutton and Lamb have the potential to develop into the best tandem in the NFL in a few years. This would be a huge step in the Broncos turning this roster around.
16. Atlanta Falcons – K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU
Picking up Dante Fowler is a nice addition, but Atlanta can’t count on that being enough. Chaisson brings impressive strength for his size. I see him as being a situational rusher for the Falcons while he continues to develop other parts of his game. He has a long way to go as a run defender.
17. Minnesota Vikings via Dallas Cowboys – Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama
With two first round picks and a ton of of mid round options, Minnesota can afford to be aggressive in finding its replacement for Stefon Diggs. Ruggs has dynamite speed with a bigger frame than most realize. He has a different skill set than Diggs, but should help this Vikings offense add a new dimension to the passing game.
18. Miami Dolphins – Josh Jones, OT, Houston
Miami made some questionable moves in free agency, but did not find it’s offensive tackle of the future, so taking a flier on Jones feels like a smart move. He is a bit raw despite being a little older than some of the other tackles in this class. However, he brings an impressive blend of mobility and power to the table and should be able to help the Dolphins in both the short term and long term.
19. Las Vegas Raiders via Chicago Bears – Tee Higgins, WR, Alabama
Mike Mayock loves Clemson players. Even if the Raiders GM hadn’t spent three picks on former Tigers in 2019, this would be a great landing spot for Higgins. His size and ball skills make him a matchup nightmare with tons of potential to contribute in the red zone. He didn’t run at the combine, so he might never get to answer questions about his speed for teams, but his game tape makes him worth a top-20 pick.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars via Los Angeles Rams – Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
Gardner Minshew is the best option Jacksonville has for 2020, but beyond that, that is up for debate. Love is an unfinished product with lots of potential. After shipping off Nick Foles, this team could use another option to build around going forward.
21. Philadelphia Eagles – Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
After trading for Darius Slay and signing Jonathan Hargreave, Philly has set themselves up to target a receiver early in this draft. Jefferson is a great fit given his size and playmaking ability. Given the team’s struggles at receiver this past season, this will be a welcome addition.
22. Dallas Cowboys via Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills – Bryce Hall, CB, Virginia
Dallas slides back a few spots and still lands a solid corner with some potential to contribute for next season. Hall is coming off an injury, but he was putting together a really strong senior year before going down. He tracks the ball well in coverage and has the size to be a prototypical starter. With Byron Jones now in Miami, this is a huge need.
23. New England Patriots – Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
What comes next for the Patriots without Tom Brady is anyone’s guess. What feels like a Bill Belichick move is to grab a linebacker with great coverage ability and range. Queen is the perfect fit for New England’s defense with the loss of Kyle van Noy.
24. New Orleans Saints – Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma
Emmanuel Sanders is 32 and does not solve New Orleans’ long-term need for a receiver, but it does give them flexibility in the draft. Adding a downhill linebacker with good speed and instincts is never a bad thing. The Saints have been trying to solidify their linebacking corps for years. Murray might actually help them do it.
25. Minnesota Vikings – Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
The Vikings went bold and grabbed a top-end receiver, but they still need to patch up the secondary. Gladney is a bit undersized, but he plays the ball well and plays his man even better. He is a bit rough around the edges, but he should be capable of contributing early on in his NFL career.
26. Detroit Lions via Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans – A.J. Epenesa, DL, Iowa
Adding Danny Shelton was a good move, but it does not solve all of Detroit’s defensive line needs. Epenesa has really good play strength and some versatility as a pass rusher. He is a bit inconsistent, but when he is on, he has the talent of a top-10 player in this draft. This is not the biggest need on Detroit’s board, but he is the best player left available and they pick again early in round 2.
27. Seattle Seahawks – Ross Blacklock, DL, TCU
Rumors point to Jadeveon Clowney returning to Seattle, who at the time of writing, is still unsigned. If Clowney does come back, Blacklock could slot in well next to him and create a dynamic front four for the Seahawks. He rarely loses ground in the trenches and often drew double teams at TCU. It would be fun to see him run free because Clowney would definitely be drawing the majority of the attention.
28. Baltimore Ravens – Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama
Baltimore made some savvy moves to restock the defense without breaking the bank, but those moves were in the front seven. To round out the defense, the Ravens can tab a rangy safety who likes to play down in the box. McKinney should help soften the blow of Tony Jefferson’s departure and give John Harbaugh another starting option in the secondary.
29. Tennessee Titans – Austin Jackson, OT, USC
Jack Conklin is now a Brown. That means the Titans desperately need help on the right side of the line. Jackson is a bit of a project. However, he has great size and measurables along with some solid moments on tape. Putting him on the right side could hide some of his deficiencies while he develops.
30. Green Bay Packers – Michael Pittman Jr., WR, USC
Here is my comp for Pittman: Jordy Nelson. Nelson is 6’3″, 217 pounds and ran a 4.51 40 time. Pittman is 6’4″, 223 pounds and ran a 4.52 40 time. We know what Aaron Rodgers did with Nelson. I think Pittman could be the perfect complement to Davante Adam’s and help jumpstart this offense.
31. Denver Broncos via San Francisco 49ers – Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
With a bunch of mid-round picks, Denver can get aggressive in moving up to find Chris Harris’ replacement. Yes, they traded for A.J. Bouye, but when you play in the same division as Patrick Mahomes, you need a few good corners. Fulton is aggressive and played against some great competition this year. He is a bit inconsistent, but at his best, he is a lockdown corner.
32. Kansas City Chiefs – Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama
Given the way the board broke for the Chiefs, I could see them trading out. Instead, Kansas City should tag the lengthy Diggs to help rebuild a decimate cornerback room. His size and physicality would bring a different element to this Chiefs secondary and it should be a welcome one.
For more NFL Draft coverage, check out the Aftermath’s NFL Draft Podcast, with new episodes every Thursday.