10 weeks into the NFL season, we still have no idea what the draft order is going to look like, but we have a pretty clear sense for what team’s biggest needs are at this point.
The number of teams that feel like they could make a quarterback change this year is outrageous. The Jets, Jaguars, Washington, Cowboys, Giants, Vikings, Falcons, 49ers, Patriots, Bears, and Colts all have question marks at the position beyond this season. The Steelers, Saints and Buccaneers all need to identify the successor to their future Hall of Fame passer nearing the end of his career.
Now this is shaping up to be a great quarterback draft, but not every one of those teams is going to draft a quarterback in the first round. Players like Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, Sam Darnold and Dwayne Haskins could all be starting for different teams next year as well. Trying to predict too much is meaningless at this stage, so I will stick to just mocking draft picks in this one.
This current draft order is from Tankathon before the Vikings and Bears meet on Monday Night Football. Let’s get started!
1. New York Jets (0-9) – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Yes, Sam Darnold was never really given a chance to succeed in New York. I believe he will be successful somewhere else, Pittsburgh perhaps, but there is really not argument to keep him and pass on Trevor Lawrence at this point. Sure, Joe Douglas could probably net a bounty of picks, but with four first-round selections already over the next two years and Lawrence looking like the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, taking the golden boy from Clemson just makes too much sense. Netting a pair of mid-round picks for Darnold should hopefully allow Douglas to set Lawrence up for success in a way that the Jets never could for Darnold.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
It does not look like Jake Luton is the answer at quarterback either. Jacksonville has arguably the least talented roster in the league. This franchise needs to full hit the reset button. Justin Fields is a great player to rebuild around. He tossed 42 touchdowns to just one interception in 2019. He is completing an absurd 86.7% of his passes through three games. It is fun to daydream about Trey Lance’s potential, but Fields looks to be the smarter choice at this stage.
3. Dallas Cowboys (2-7) – Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama
Dallas will feel it has hit the lottery here. The Cowboys have a choice to draft a rookie and rebuild, or trade back with a quarterback-needy team and demand a haul to get in front of Washington. I did not allow trades in this mock draft, but the phones in Dallas would be lighting up with offers at this point. With the Cowboys forced to stand pat, they address their struggling secondary. Byron Jones’ departure created a massive hole. Patrick Surtain is the most talented corner in the draft and should be a Day 1 starter.
4. Washington Football Team (2-7) – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Conversely, this might be worst-case scenario for Washington. Needing a quarterback in a draft that feels like it has a clear top three prospects and needing to make a trade with a division rival to secure one is an unenviable situation. Some will point to Zach Wilson as a potential option if Lance is gone, but I think there is a clear gap between the two right now. Lance has one of the prettiest deep balls I’ve seen in awhile. There is no quarterback that missed out on a chance to cement his draft stock more than Lance after a matchup with Oregon was canceled and his school’s season was moved to the spring. It will be interesting to see how teams view him after just one season as a starter in the FCS.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (2-7) – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Things have been rough for Chargers fans as the team continues to lose in agonizingly close fashion. Still, the future is bright in L.A. with the quarterback of the future in Justin Herbert. And if all these close losses result in the Chargers landing Penei Sewell, I think it will be worth the suffering. Sewell is the clear top lineman prospect in this draft and could go sooner if not for the clear need at quarterback. At 6’6″, 330 lbs, Sewell certainly looks the part of a NFL left tackle. We won’t see him again until the predraft process, but he should be going in the top 10 of every mock draft.
6. Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans (2-7) – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
The future is now! Tua Time is off to a great start in Miami. What makes it more exciting is having the Texans’ first-round pick this year to help bolster this roster no matter how much success the Dolphins continue to have. The clear need on this team is for a receiver. DeVante Parker has had his moments, but has never established himself as a true No. 1 target. Injuries and opt outs have decimated Miami at the position as well. Ja’Marr Chase would change all of that. Coming off one of the best statistical seasons in college football history, Chase opted out of 2020 and declared for the draft. His playmaking ability would take this offense to the next level.
7. Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1) – Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
Cincinnati is still clearly a rebuilding team. They have needs across the board, but grabbing the top edge rusher in the class is a good way to bolster the defense. The Bengals have struggled to get to the quarterback all season. Cincinnati ranked 29th in pass rush win rate heading into Sunday and have registered just 11 sacks in nine games this season. Gregory Rousseau can lineup outside or inside and press the pocket. He dominated college football as a redshirt freshman before opting out of 2020. Rousseau could just have been a one-season wonder, but his measurables make it easy to project him having success at the next level as well.
8. New York Giants (3-7) – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
When you think about some of the greatest defenses in Giants history, they were routinely led by great linebackers. The Giants of the 80s and 90s featured stars such as Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks, Harry Carson and Pepper Johnson. While not quite at the same level, even the 2007 and 2011 Super Bowl winning teams had good linebacker play. It is something this franchise has lacked for way too long. Micah Parsons should help restore this defense to its former glory. New York has actually taken huge strides as the year has rolled on, but could still use a dynamic playmaker like Parsons at the center. His sideline-to-sideline ability and potential as a three-down player makes him a great value here.
9. Carolina Panthers (3-7) – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
James Bradberry is gone. The combination of Rasul Douglas and Donte Jackson isn’t really getting the job done. Adding Caleb Farley should bolster this secondary. He is physical and long. He was arguably the ACC’s top corner in 2019. He continues a string of players selected here that opted out of 2020. His tape from a year ago was impressive. If Farley shows out at the combine, he could easily be the first corner selected in 2021.
10. Atlanta Falcons (3-6) – Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
Atlanta spent a first-round pick on A.J. Terrell last year, but still needs all kinds of help in the secondary. Shaun Wade spent much of 2019 as Ohio State’s nickel corner, but has moved outside for 2020. He has the size at 6’1″ to play on the outside, but his experience in the slot only increases his value. He would be a a welcome addition to the Falcons’ cornerback group regardless of who is the head coach next year.
11. Denver Broncos (3-6) – Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
Has Garett Bolles finally figured it out? He has yet to allow a sack this season, but he has still committed five penalties according to Pro Football Focus. He is also 28 and his contract is up at the end of the year. I don’t see Bolles earning a long-term deal, but perhaps he will take a one-year prove it type offer. Regardless, Denver could use some help on the offensive line. Samuel Cosmi looks the part of an NFL tackle. At 6’7″, 309 lbs, he is not someone you want to mess with. He moves well and should be able to hold up on the perimeter at the next level. Consider him the potential long-term solution at left tackle once Ja’Wuan James returns to play on the right side.
12. Minnesota Vikings (3-5) – Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State
Minnesota seems to finally be leaning into this ball control, run-focused offense. It has worked extremely well for the Vikings in recent weeks. So why not open some more running lanes for Dalvin Cook? Wyatt Davis is exactly the type of nasty player you want on the interior of your offensive line. He finishes plays and can move well in space. He would be a welcome addition to a unit that has lacked consistency this year.
13. San Francisco 49ers (4-6) – Israel Mukuamu, CB, South Carolina
Could San Francisco move on from Jimmy Garoppolo? It is certainly possible, but I think they will give him one more year with a, hopefully, healthy supporting cast. The 49ers are just one year removed from a Super Bowl appearance. Garoppolo is not the reason they are winning, but they know they can win with him. I think bolstering the roster around him is the best bet for 2021. They can still move on from him for next to no dead money after the 2021 season. Adding a player with Israel Mukuamu’s unique skill set could make the difference. Richard Sherman can’t play forever and Mukuamu has even been taking some snaps at safety this year. His size allows him to match up with tight ends or receivers and his potential is through the roof. He needs to clean up things like footwork and hand placement, but those are coachable aspects of his game.
14. Detroit Lions (4-5) – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola are all free agents after the season. It is unlikely all three return. It is possible none of them return. Even if Golladay is back, he will need someone to play across from him. Jaylen Waddle was in the midst of a Heisman-type year before suffering a season-ending injury. His electric speed, playmaking ability and route-running skill make him a player ready to contribute on Day 1 and capable of adjusting to whatever is needed of him in a given week. He also brings the added bonus of special teams play. Matt Stafford would have a lot of fun in this offense with Golladay and Waddle.
15. New England Patriots (4-5) – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Is it too soon to kill the Cam Newton experiment? New England’s offense has been far from reliable this year, but Newton does not have much around him. His receivers are among the least proven in the league. He gets essentially zero production out of the tight end. His running backs have been banged up. It is easy to make excuses for Newton’s occasional poor play, but he will need to keep winning games to keep his job. I think the Patriots will look to find the long-term solution in the draft. Zach Wilson has come from off the radar to generating top-five hype. He seems to have put the struggles of 2019 behind him. If he can perform like this down the stretch, it should be enough to make people overlook his lackluster first two seasons of college ball.
16. Chicago Bears (5-4) – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Chicago is in free fall right now. Another loss could see them enter the Zach Wilson sweepstakes as well. With Wilson off the board, Chicago gets aggressive in taking Mac Jones. Much like Wilson, Jones seems to have turned the corner in his development, improving his numbers significantly from the year before. He is playing really high-level football right now, airing it out all over. He has a chance to go even higher if he can maintain this level of production.
17. Cleveland Browns (6-3) – Marvin Wilson, DL, Florida State
Myles Garrett needs some help along that defensive line and Marvin Wilson is the best player available to give it to him. Wilson has not been quite as dominant this season as he was in 2019 before an injury ended his season. While the disruptive plays might not be happening quite as frequently, Wilson is still capable of making them. His athleticism is apparent on film and he could be a contributor early on for this Browns defense.
18. Tennessee Titans (6-3) – Rondale Moore, WR Purdue
With Corey Davis set to be a free agent at the end of the year, wide receiver could be a big need for the Titans this offseason. While Tennessee already has A.J. Brown, adding a playmaker like Rondale Moore could really change the offense. Moore’s electric speed and incredible playmaking ability would force the defense to be more honest in pass coverage, opening even more running room for Derek Henry. Surrounding Ryan Tannehill with talent feels like an appropriate focus given how much money the Titans are paying him now.
19. Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1) – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
This has been a season to forget for the Eagles. Injuries, bad secondary play and an overtaxed Carson Wentz have decimated Philadelphia this season. Despite all their clear flaws, the Eagles still hold a playoff spot at the moment by virtue of winning the hapless NFC East. With them picking at the end of the teens, Philly misses out on some of the top-end talent in this draft. I should not be throwing that much shade at Jaycee Horn. He excels in man coverage, possesses NFL pedigree and seems to look, dare I say it, pro ready.
20. New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks (6-3) – Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pittsburgh
When was the last time the Jets had a reliable pass rusher? It has been a long time. New York definitely needs to surround Trevor Lawrence with more talent, but it would also be good if he didn’t have to score 30 points every game in order to win. Patrick Jones II has dominated the ACC over the past two years with 16.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss in his past 19 games. He has the size to be a 3-4 outside linebacker, or he could bulk up a little bit and be a 4-3 end if the Jets change schemes after this season. Either way, he would provide a huge boost to a terrible defense.
21. Arizona Cardinals (6-3) – Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami
Chandler Jones cannot play forever. He will be 31 next season coming off a torn bicep injury. Arizona has been solid getting after opposing quarterbacks even without Jones this season, but adding another edge rusher would be wise. Hasson Reddick is a free agent after the season. Enter Quincy Roche, starring at Miami this year after three seasons with Temple. His sack numbers are down in 2020, but he still has racked up 50.5 tackles for loss in his collegiate career, including 11 this year. He is disruptive and would benefit from playing exclusively on the outside. Miami has taken to kicking him inside this year a little too often.
22. Miami Dolphins (6-3) – Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Let’s just make Tua Tagovailoa as comfortable as possible in Miami and give him his old backfield mate Najee Harris to play with. Miles Gaskin has been a nice revelation this year, but he is not a feature back. Harris brings a great blend of power, agility and pass catching ability to an offense that could use a proven playmaker. Surrounding Tagovailoa with Harris and Ja’Marr Chase would make this a very exciting offense to watch.
23. Indianapolis Colts (6-3) – Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse
It is a passing league and that also means you have to defend the pass. The Colts have done that really well in 2020, but Malik Hooker is a free agent and Indy will have a need at safety next year. Grabbing the best ball-hawking defender in this class is a nice way to fill that spot. Andre Cisco had a ridiculous 13 interceptions in 24 career games at Syracuse. He has some work to do as a tackler, but he has the range to play single-high safety. His playmaking ability makes him a great value towards the end of Round 1.
24. Baltimore Ravens (6-3) – Creed Humphrey, C, Oklahoma
Baltimore could certainly use a few more edge rushers, but with the addition of Yannick Ngakoue, that can wait until sometime on Day 2. Instead, the Ravens can upgrade at center to get this offense back on track. Matt Skura has struggled this year and the offense is suffering as a result. Creed Humphrey is about as pro ready of a prospect as you can find. He has started the past three years at Oklahoma. He has blocked for mobile quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts. He is mean and powerful in trenches. He fits what this Ravens team wants to do and should be a nice plug-and-play option along this offensive line.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars via Los Angeles Rams (6-3) – Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
If you are going to set your rookie quarterback up for success, it is important to give him the tools to grow. Pat Freiermuth is a matchup nightmare. He does not put up gaudy numbers in Penn State’s run heavy attack, but it has allowed him to showcase his blocking skills. When he does get a chance to run some routes, he has showcased great athleticism and speed for a player his size. The Jaguars have a good group of young wide receivers already, so adding a top-tier tight end is a logical next step.
26. Las Vegas Raiders (6-3) – Carlos Basham, DL, Wake Forest
Las Vegas needs pass rushing help. However, they seem to like the combo of Maxx Crosby and Clelin Ferrell on the outside, so let’s find an interior pass rusher for them. Carlos “Boogie” Basham burst onto the scene in 2019 with 10 sacks. He has been solid this season again with five sacks in six games for the Demon Deacons. He would be an easy fit as a three technique tackle who can collapse the pocket. Don’t overlook his disruptive skills as well. He has seven forced fumbles over the past two years. Finding someone who generates turnovers is crucial for the Raiders this offseason.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) – Jalen Twyman, DL, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay has one of the deeper, more complete rosters in the NFL, but Ndamukong Suh is a 33 and a free agent after the season is over. Finding his replacement is likely towards the top of the Buccaneers’ to-do list. Jalen Twyman is not a like-for-like replacement, but he could be a difference maker in this defense. He had an outstanding sophomore season with 12 tackles for loss and 10 sacks before opting out of 2020. He is built very much like another former Pittsburgh interior lineman named Aaron Donald. I don’t expect Twyman to live up to those standards, but he can fill that pass rushing role along Tampa’s defensive line.
27. Buffalo Bills (7-2) – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Stefon Diggs has been a welcome addition to the Bills’ offense. As a result, Josh Allen is having his best season so far. Giving Allen more weapons to work with should be the priority. Kyle Pitts is a tight end, wide receiver hybrid at 6’6″, 240 lbs. He can line up all over the formation and brings with him big-play ability. Buffalo would definitely need to bring him along as a blocker, but his upside as a receiver makes him more than worthy of a first-round selection.
29. Green Bay Packers (7-2) – Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama
Green Bay is horrible against the run. The Packers are giving up 4.6 yards per carry and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns so far this season. If it wasn’t for the fact that Aaron Rodgers almost always has the Packers ahead, this team could be giving up way more yards per game than they already do. Adding Dylan Moses won’t fix that, but it should make a dent. After missing all of 2019 with a torn ACL, Moses has not yet returned to his 2018 form. He is still productive with 46 tackles, including five behind the line, so far this year, but his testing at the combine and medical checks could be the difference for him come draft day.
30. Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) – Trey Smith, OT, Tennessee
If you spent $500 million on something, you would definitely have a protection plan on it. That’s what the Chiefs can do here for Patrick Mahomes by drafting Trey Smith. Mitchell Schwartz and Mike Remmers have held down the left side of the Chiefs offensive line so far, but Smith would give Kansas City a long-term solution. He has dominated in the SEC since finally returning after dealing with blood clots in his lungs. That is definitely a medical red flag for every team, but if he checks out, he could be gone well before the Chiefs are picking in Round 1.
31. New Orleans Saints (7-2) – DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
It is tempting to take a quarterback here, but I think the Saints will ride it out with Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill next season. What the Saints desperately need is a long-term answer across from Michael Thomas. DeVonta Smith has been the top receiver at Alabama production wise each of the past two seasons. When you consider he played alongside Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs and Jaylen Waddle, that is really impressive. What drops him to the end of the first round is his size. He has not had any injury issues so far, but at 175 lbs, you worry about his durability at the next level. He is going to have to add some mass to his frame to survive in the NFL.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0) – Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
The dream season continues for the Steelers. They have a gritty defense with tons of playmakers. The offense is deep at every skill position. Ben Roethlisberger is nearing the end of his playing career, but I would expect this team to go all in on surrounding him with talent in his final few years rather than find his successor in the draft right now. Alex Leatherwood is a jack-of-all-trades lineman, having played every position other than center at Alabama. Injuries have hurt the Steelers’ offensive line this year, making it clear that some depth and maybe a new starter at right tackle is necessary. Leatherwood could compete for that job right away and provide crucial depth if he is not ready to start on Day 1.
33. New York Jets (0-9) – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
34. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) – Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama
35. Washington (2-7) – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
36. Los Angeles Chargers (2-7) – Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford
37. Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans (2-7) – Jeremiah Owusu-Karomoah, LB/S, Notre Dame
38. Dallas Cowboys (2-7) – Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
39. Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1) – Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami
40. Carolina Panthers (3-7) – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
41. New York Giants (3-7) – Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
42. Denver Broncos (3-6) – Jay Tufele, DL, USC
43. Atlanta Falcons (3-6) – Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas
44. Jacksonville Jaguars via Minnesota Vikings (3-5) – Jevon Holland, DB, Oregon
45. San Francisco 49ers (4-6) – Jackson Carman, OT, Clemson
46. New England Patriots (4-5) – Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest
47. Detroit Lions (4-5) – Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
48. Chicago Bears (5-4) – Mohamed Ibrahim, RB, Minnesota
49. Tennessee Titans (6-3) – Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
50. Cleveland Browns (6-3) – Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC
51. Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1) – Richard LeCounte, S, Georgia
52. Arizona Cardinals (6-3) – Cade Mays, OT, Tennessee
53. Miami Dolphins (6-3) – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
54. Indianapolis Colts (6-3) – Seth Williams, WR, Auburn
55. Baltimore Ravens (6-3) – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
56. Seattle Seahawks (6-3) – Chris Rumph, EDGE, Duke
57. Las Vegas Raiders (6-3) – Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
58. Los Angeles Rams (6-3) – Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State
59. Buffalo Bills (7-3) – Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida State
60. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) – Brock Purdy, QB, Iowa State
61. Green Bay Packers (7-2) – Charlie Kolar, TE, Iowa State
62. Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
63. New Orleans Saints (7-2) – Derion Kendrick, CB, Clemson
64. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0) – Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State