Football

Is it time for Peyton to hang ’em up?

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL ,

He looked battered. He looked beaten. He looked broken. That is the best way to describe Peyton Manning as he departed from the field on Sunday night. The 38-year old veteran had lost for the thirteenth time in the playoffs, an NFL record. Every loss, especially a playoff loss, has to hurt, but this one stings just a little bit more. The defeat came at the hands of Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, the man who replaced Peyton as quarterback in Indy after Manning’s 13-year tenure with the team. Now, Peyton must enter the offseason with that sour taste in his mouth and wonder if it is worth coming back for the 2015 season.

It is hard to admit it, but it is time for Peyton Manning to call it quits on his playing career. I love watching Manning compete but saying he should stay would be selfish. We saw as the season progressed on that the Broncos quarterback began to struggle. Part of the reason was due to the torn quad Manning played with for the last month of the season. That aside, Manning threw for over 700 fewer yards, 16 fewer touchdowns and saw his completion percentage drop 2 percent. Sure, it might not be fair to compare him to the best statistical year ever produced by an NFL quarterback but the offense around him did not change. Nope, Manning actually had more support from the running game and even a better defense, yet his play declined. Manning was still playing at high level, just not the level he could have been.

The bigger issue though was the continual drop in zip Peyton had on his passes. His arm strength is clearly deteriorating and the offseason will only further that trend. Manning, unfortunately, is declining and the odds that he is going to turn around next season and play well enough to get this Denver team to a Super Bowl is highly unlikely. Peyton is not going to get any better before next season and I would really hate to see him come back for another year and put up a mediocre performance because his body was beginning to fail him. It is hard to say what you want the guy to do because he was so great this past season, putting up top-5 quarterback numbers. However, if Sunday’s game was a sign of what is to come, then maybe it is best that Peyton just rests on his laurels. Manning completed only 56.5% of his passes, averaged only a measly 4.6 yards per attempt, posted a meager 75.5 passer rating and finished with a lowly 27.7 total quarterback rating. Not to say that’s always how Manning would play, but if it’s any indicator, then Peyton should stay on his couch.

Another contributing factor would be the departure of Head Coach John Fox. This likely means that the team will undergo some pretty serious overhaul in the offseason as it attempts to find a new direction. There are also rumors that offensive and defensive coordinators Adam Gase and Jack Del Rio could be on the outs, which would mean an almost completely fresh start in Denver. All of the change likely wouldn’t suit Manning and if it turns out that General Manager John Elway is looking towards the future then it is likely that Manning would not even really be part of his plans. Manning after all does count for $21.5 million if he is on the roster at the beginning of the new league year. With Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, Orlando Franklin, Will Montgomery and Jacob Tamme’s contracts set to expire, that money could be crucial. It is still likely at least one of them will not be back meaning the offense will take a hit. Three defensive starters could also be missing next year. That is a decent amount of turnover for a professional team and I think the uncertainty could cause Manning to reconsider returning to Mile High for another year.

In all honesty, Manning does not have much left to play for. He holds the single season record for passing touchdown and passing yards. He set the career mark this season for passing touchdowns and ranks second for career passing yards. He is tied for the most passing touchdowns in a game. He surpassed Dan Marino this year for the most game-winning drives in NFL history and has the most fourth quarter comebacks of all time as well. Manning also ranks only behind Brett Favre for most career wins. There is no doubt that Peyton will be a Hall of Famer. At this point, I do not know what else he has to prove. I do not think that he can suffer through a whole season to lead Denver to another Super Bowl win. He could probably catch Favre in both career wins and career passing yards next season but outside of that, there is little left for Manning to accomplish.

As sad as it is to see a great player retire, I think now is the right time. It is certainly not how Peyton would have wanted it to go but if he tries to hang on too much longer, it is only going to hurt his legacy. I would think that Manning would want people to remember how dominant he was during his illustrious career and never leave a doubt in anyone’s mind that he was one of the best ever. If he comes back and struggles, it tarnishes that legacy with the last season fans have to look back on being one where number 18 showed his age and was clearly past his prime. I just do not think it will get any better for Peyton and with the way things are going this seems like the perfect time to get out. But I guess that is for him to decide. Manning is a competitor and this loss might have just lit a fire under him. We will have to see what his future holds.

National Championship preview

Chris McGlynn Football, NCAAF , , ,

It may be the first of many to come but this College Football Playoff has been exciting from the very beginning and is definitely an improvement to the old system. Now, we will see who wins the ultimate prize of a National Championship when Oregon clashes with Ohio States. The battle of the Ducks and the Bucks will be a heated one and I am here to break down what you need to know for the game.

This marks the first meeting between the Buckeyes and Ducks since 2009, when Ohio State defeated Oregon in the Rose Bowl. In the previous eight meetings between these teams, Oregon has never managed to win a game. History is not going to matter too much in this matchup but it is definitely not in the Ducks’ favor. In that 2009 Rose Bowl loss, Oregon’s signal caller was Jeremiah Masoli, who ended up transferring to Ole Miss following the season. This year the Ducks have Heisman winner Marcus Mariota under center, which is certainly a major upgrade over Masoli. Mariota might not be the only reason the Ducks are in the title game but he is definitely a key component to this championship run. The Hawaiian-born quarterback has been nothing short of excellent this year amassing 4121 passing yards and 56 total touchdowns, 40 through the air, 15 on the ground and even 1 receiving. He has a quarterback rating of 184.3, ranking as one of the best single season marks in history. Mariota was also one of the best avoiding turnovers throwing only 3 interceptions on 408 attempts. That means that Mariota threw an interception on less than 1 percent of his throws. He accomplished all of this while completing a career high 68.6 percent of his passes as well. He will be the focal point of this Oregon squad.

Mariota struggled a bit more than we are used to seeing at the beginning of the Florida State game but settled down and had a stellar second half. It will be largely up to the Ohio State defense to keep the Buckeyes in this game. The offense can score, as we saw when it racked up 42 points against a top defense in Alabama on New Year’s Day, but the defense will need to keep Mariota and this high flying Duck’s attack in check. This group will be up to the task. The Buckeye’s secondary came up with three interceptions of Blake Sims last week and the defensive line limited the big plays from Bama’s tailback duo of Xavier Henry and T.J. Yeldon. This pass rush also registered 43 sacks on the season, which ranks ninth in FBS. This defense is explosive and can make Mariota uncomfortable. Ohio State is also the type of team that could really do a lot of damage to the Duck’s offense but not in the way you would think. The Buckeyes’ grounded out 281 yards rushing against the nation’s second best run defense in the Sugar Bowl. Oregon ranks all the way down at fiftieth in terms of run defense and that could spell trouble for the Ducks. If Ohio State can run the ball effectively with Ezekiel Elliot, they will not only wear out Oregon, they will also limit the number of chances Mariota gets to make plays on offense. Usually, Oregon’s fast paced offense has tired out defenses by the end of games, making it easy to score, but if the Ducks are getting fewer drives then Ohio State’s defense should be able to hold up for the entirety of the game. That should be Ohio States game plan going into this game: run the ball and keep the Heisman winning quarterback for the Ducks on the sideline. Elliot will be the center of the Buckeye’s attack, and if he gets rolling, it could spell the end for Oregon’s title hopes.

Oregon’s defense might have a slight edge though as they will get to face Ohio State quarterback Cardale Jones in only his third career start. The Buckeye’s are rolling right now and changing quarterbacks for the second time this season has not seemed to affect them but Jones is still young and learning. The sophomore from Cleveland struggled against Alabama’s defense, particularly when the Buckeye’s were in passing downs. He completed only 51.4 percent of his passes and definitely seemed like he was not fully ready to handle throwing more than twice as many passes in the Sugar Bowl than he did in the Big Ten Championship game. Oregon’s pass rush is talented as well registering 36 sacks on the year. If Oregon can find a way to slow down the Ohio State running game and force the Buckeyes into third and long situations, we could see some the Buckeyes’ offense stalling quite a bit. I would not be surprised if the Ducks defense crowds the box and forces Jones to beat them using his arm. It is risky but the kid is still fairly young and is liable to make some costly mistakes.

The players might be on the field, but the coaches control the game. These two coaches come from very different backgrounds. Ohio State’s Urban Meyer has two national titles to his name from his time with the Florida Gators. Mark Helfrich spent a few years as the offensive coordinator in Oregon following his time at Colorado as the offensive coordinator. Meyer has eight years of head coaching experience; Helfrich is just completing his second season as the lead man in Pacific Northwest. Both have been extremely successful in their respective coaching careers. Meyer and Helfrich are a combined 49-6 over the past two years. Neither one of them is going to back down and both know what this would mean to their respective programs. For Meyer, it would be validating that Ohio State is back and that the Big 10 can be a premier conference. For Helfrich, it will be the school’s first national title and completely pull Helfrich out of Chip Kelly’s shadow. These two are both great coaches and should have many more years of running top programs but only one will be the first ever college football playoff champion.

As for which of them it will be raising that trophy while soaked in Gatorade, it is a tough call. Oregon’s offense is second to none but the suspension of freshman wide receiver Darren Carrington is a big blow. He was a big play machine against Florida State accounting for 165 yards and two touchdowns. At the same time, Ohio State is still trying to find their way offensively with a quarterback in his third ever start on the biggest stage possible. The first half will be full of experimentation by both teams as we see what these coaches have cooked up over the past week and half for this game. I really like Ohio State’s chances in this game, but I cannot go against the Heisman winner in Mariota. He won the award for his continually incredible play and I think, in the end, he will be the difference maker. This game will absolutely be high scoring and Ohio State will be competitive but Oregon wins 47-38.

Why choosing the Bills will be a mistake for Ryan

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , ,

Rumors are flying around right now that Rex Ryan could be on his way to coach in Buffalo next season to the tune of $27.5 million over the next five years. Ryan is an excellent coach and will make a stout Bills’ defense even better but going to Buffalo is a mistake for Ryan. He is being lured in by all of the money and apparently did not appreciate the Falcons lukewarm response to their first interview with the former Jets coach. Ryan should avoid coaching this northern New York team for a laundry list of reasons.

The Bills have a top shelf defense and some decent offensive weapons. The offensive line is a solid unit and this team can run the ball effectively. However, Buffalo is searching for an upgrade at quarterback due to the less than stellar play at the position holding back the team. Sound familiar? This is the exact same situation Rex Ryan walked away from in New York, just with a slightly improved defense. The gap is really not that much. The Bills finished with the fourth ranked defense allowing 312.2 yards per game. The Jets finished sixth with 327.2 yards per game allowed. That’s a difference of only 15 yards per game. New York even had a better run defense than Buffalo. Buffalo was no doubt better though allowing 7 points fewer per game and the Bills generated 17 more turnovers over the course of the season than its AFC East rival. Certainly, the Bills are a step up, but it is not a huge step.

The issue the two teams share is the mostly mediocre quarterback play. The Bills 2014 starter Kyle Orton just announced his retirement and I do not see him coming back. That leaves Buffalo with E.J. Manuel as the only quarterback on the roster going into the offseason. Manuel would be a reclamation project for Ryan and we saw in New York that he struggled to develop quarterbacks in both Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith. There is a very limited free agent pool of quarterbacks with starting experience in the 2015 class, the best options being either former Titan Jake Locker or Sanchez himself. The Bills are also without a first round pick following the trade last spring with Cleveland in order to pick Sammie Watkins, which means that drafting a quarterback of the future in the first round is out of the question. Buffalo could explore trading for a player like Kirk Cousins in Washington or Johnny Manziel in Cleveland but both of those would be shots in the dark. Ryan once again does not have a proven quarterback and will have his team struggle until he finds one.

I am still very surprised to see Buffalo leaning in the direction of selecting a defensive-minded coach when the offense has struggled so mightily. Ryan is a great coach but he is walking into the same mess that led to a disaster with the Jets. I think he could be viewing this as another opportunity to take a shot at Bill Belichick in New England. Ryan would once again have a chance to meet the Patriots coach twice a year in divisional games. Ryan would love nothing more than to best Belichick and while I am not saying it could be the only reason for Ryan’s decision, it could be a motivating factor. I think Ryan is making a mistake by walking into Buffalo. He has shown his impeccable ability to create defensive schemes that can stymie Hall of Fame caliber quarterbacks but he has struggled to generate an offense. Over Ryan’s six-year stint in New York, the Jets finished 20th, 11th, 25th, 30th, 25th and 22nd in total offense. They also finished 17th, 13th, 13th, 28th, 29th and 28th in scoring offense in that same time span. The Bills need a shot in the arm offensively and Ryan cannot provide it. Looking at it, it just seems like a mistake on paper. I guess now we have to see if what is on paper translates to the playing field.

NFL Divisional round predictions

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , , , , , ,

The Wildcard round featured storied rivalries and entertaining finishes. This weekend though gives us some of the best storylines of the season. We will see Tom Brady face off with the team that has given him so much trouble in the playoffs when Joe Flacco and the Ravens come to town. Two quarterbacks who have greatly changed how the position is viewed will share the field in Seattle when Russell Wilson’s Seahawks host Cam Newton’s Panthers. Two MVP candidates square off as a hobbled Aaron Rodgers takes on Tony Romo’s Cowboys at the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. The best though is the showdown in Denver between golden boy quarterbacks of present and future. Andrew Luck battles the man he replaced in Indianapolis, Peyton Manning, when the Broncos match up with the Colts. This is Manning’s first playoff game ever against the franchise that drafted him in 1998. Now it is time to break down these divisional round games and tell you who will be advancing to the conference championship.

I will start in New England with the Patriots and Ravens will play for the second time in three years in the playoffs. The last time these two teams met, the Pats lost in Foxboro as Baltimore continued its run to the Super Bowl. This time around will be very different though. This New England defense resembles nothing that it did two years ago. There are a couple of holdovers but the biggest additions include corners Brandon Browner and Darelle Revis. Those two alone allow Bill Belichick to pressure the quarterback without safety help for his corners. Joe Flacco has been on a quite a run of late in the playoffs but it will end in Foxboro. Belichick will be sending pressure Flacco’s way all game long and he will emphasize shutting down the Ravens rushing attack as Pittsburgh did a week ago. I think Brady will exorcise some demons and key on a Baltimore secondary that struggled throughout the regular season. Look for Tim Wright and Rob Gronkowski to have big games. The Ravens are a talented enough team to keep the game close but I think New England will pull away late and win 27-14.

Flipping to the NFC now, many are calling this a mirror image game. Seattle and Carolina play very similar styles of football relying heavily on the defense to make plays and the offense to kill the clock with an explosive running game. At the helm, both squads have talented, mobile quarterbacks, who can give defensive coordinators nightmares when trying to game plan against them. The Panthers have been on a hot streak entering the playoffs and continued it last week with a commanding win over Arizona. The score was closer than the game ever seemed. Seattle had the week off and should be ready for the former Heisman winner. Saturday’s game will be very scrappy and I expect some turnovers. Seattle had the best defense in the league and Carolina’s was no slouch either ranking tenth. The first half will be a lot shifting momentum with both teams exchanging field goals. The Panthers might be the underdog but this team came close to upending Seattle earlier this season. This game will go down to the wire and I think in the end Russell Wilson’s ability to make plays outside the pocket will be too much for Carolina to handle. In this defensive battle will be low scoring and finish 19-13, Seahawks on top. When all is said and done, Seattle should be set to host its second straight NFC Championship game.

Dallas will travel north to take on Green Bay in the other NFC divisional round game to travels to Seattle. This should be an exciting game to watch. The Cowboys will need to start fast in this one if they have any hopes of surviving until the next round. They fell behind early and were lucky to escape with a win over Detroit. This game could be much easier for Dallas though than was initially thought if Aaron Rodgers is truly not at 100% with a serious calf injury. However, Rodgers was clearly hobbled in his game against Detroit two weeks ago and still led the Packers to a victory. Yet, the key to this game will be the Packers’ defensive front. The Lions laid out the blueprint to beat the Cowboys last week getting after Tony Romo and limiting Demarco Murray’s ability to break long runs. Romo was sacked six times, Murray averaged less than four yards per carry and it was clear Dallas struggled. I think Green Bay will come out with a plan early to get after Romo. Meanwhile, Dallas’ defense ranked in the bottom quarter of the league for passing yards allowed. I think Rodgers gets the Packers out to an early lead that the Cowboys, as good as they can be, are unable to overcome. Green Bay wins 34-28.

The last game pits two quarterbacks desperate for a playoff win. Peyton Manning’s career is winding down and his critics have always pointed out Manning’s struggles in the playoffs. On the other hand, Andrew Luck has burst onto the scene and has be called a great quarterback but the doubters still have yet to see Luck take his team past the divisional round of the playoffs. When the Colts visit the Broncos, we should see two offenses heading in completely different directions. Indy has struggled running the ball all year and Denver’s defense ranked second during the regular season for rushing yards allowed. This game will fall squarely on the shoulders of the former Stanford quarterback if Indianapolis is going to stand a chance in this game. Luck has the ability to put up incredible numbers but he has also been turnover prone of late. He will need to play mistake free to give the Colts a chance. For Denver though, this game will be about running the football. Offensive coordinator Adam Gase completely restructured Denver’s offense down the stretch this season to rely heavily on the running game, taking the weight off Manning. The Broncos will want to keep the ball out of Luck’s hands as much as possible and simply wear the Colts defense out with C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. This approach should make also negate the Colts pass rush, which registered an impressive 41 sacks this season. This should be an interesting game but in the end, I think the quarterback of the present holds off the quarterback of the future. Broncos win 31-21.

So my prediction is that we will see the Packers travel to Seattle and another round of Brady versus Manning in the conference championship. Let me know if you think I completely overlooked something or you have a different idea of how next weekend will look. Keep an eye for next week’s predictions as well. Enjoy all of these great matchups this weekend.

NFL Wildcard madness

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , , , , , ,

The Wildcard round of the 2015 playoffs kicks off tomorrow meaning postseason professional football is back. Saturday’s games include the Cardinals versus the Panthers and the Steelers hosting the Ravens. Sunday features the Cowboys taking on the Lions and the Bengals visiting the Colts. The playoffs are unpredictable and can bring out the best in players. Nothing is a sure bet in the NFL, but I will do my best to predict who will win and who will go home.

I will start in Charlotte where the Panthers snuck into the playoffs with a losing record, only the second team ever to do so. That being said, Carolina is hot at the right time as the Panthers won four straight to make the postseason, which included a 34-3 thumping of division rival Atlanta to clinch the division. Arizona on the other hand, has limped into the postseason losing its last two games. The running game has stalled since Andre Ellington landed on injury reserve. The Cards are playing Ryan Lindley at quarterback as well having lost both Drew Stanton and Carson Palmer for the season. Bruce Arians still has the Cardinals alive though between creative play calling and an attacking defense that is capable of keeping Arizona in games, even when the offense sputters. This will be a defensive battle. Carolina caused three turnovers last week and should generate more at home against a shaky Lindley. I think the Panthers have too much momentum and Cam Newton can create just enough offense for Carolina to pull out the victory. Panthers win 24-14.

To the other NFC game, the Dallas Cowboys are in the playoffs for the first time since 2009 and this Cowboys team is definitely better suited to make a Super Bowl run. The Cowboys have one of the most versatile offenses in the NFL between Tony Romo, Demarco Murray and Dez Bryant. Dallas can beat you through the air or on the ground. Romo is having the best season of his career, as is Murray. These two will carry the Cowboys offense when it goes into battle with Detroit. The Lions’ defense has been one of the many surprises of this 2014 season. This unit finished second in total defense, third in scoring defense and tops in rush defense. Those are some elite numbers. The Lions front four grinds on offenses and generates hits on the quarterback. Eventually those start to take a toll. This game will rest more than anything else on Romo’s ability to improvise in the pocket and exploit Detroit’s secondary, which has only been average so far this year. Offensively, Matt Stafford and the Lions have looked out of sync. I do not expect too much from them, especially going on the road Stafford completion percentage on the road is thirteen percent worse than at home and his yards per attempt drops from 8.0 to 6.3. Detroit also has only one win against a .500 or better team this year. Look for Dallas to roll through a Detroit team still a year or two away from seriously contending. Cowboys win 31-17.

Switching over to the AFC, two young quarterbacks will duel in Indianapolis on Sunday when the Colts take on the Bengals. Andrew Luck and Andy Dalton lead their respective teams into a rematch of a Week 7 game. Indy won the regular season matchup between these two teams, blowing away Cincinnati 27-0. However, the Bengals ground attack has vastly improved since then with Jeremy Hill forming an excellent one-two punch with Giovani Bernard. The Bengals can wear down opposing defenses with its running game but this team’s playoff hopes still hinge on Dalton. Luck knows how to generate points and can get the Colts out to a lead in a hurry. If this game rely too heavily on Dalton’s arm, Cincy will lose. Dalton has never performed well in the playoffs and I do not see it starting now as a solid Colts’ pass rush and Vontae Davis roaming the secondary will cause him problems. For the Colts, Chuck Pagano has to be sure he gets Luck to avoid committing early mistakes. The former Stanford signal caller accounted for 28 turnovers this season. If Luck can hold on to the ball, this is Indy’s game to lose. Neither team is perfect but I trust Luck in the playoffs a lot more than I trust Dalton. I think the Colts win 34-21.

Every year, division rivals meet twice during the regular season, unless they matchup in the playoffs. Saturday night brings us one of the best division rivalries in league history as the Ravens travel to Pittsburgh for round 3. Pittsburgh will be without star running back LeVeon Bell meaning Ben Roethlisberger will have more pressure than ever to carry his team to victory. The toughest thing for the Steelers is how much Bell’s injury limits the play calling. Not only was Bell a top rusher, he was also an asset out of the backfield. Pittsburgh could have desperately used a bye week to get ready but Big Ben has shouldered the load before and he knows what is coming his way with a familiar foe. The Ravens are getting back to playing smash mouth football though which could make life difficult for Roethlisberger and company. Justin Forsett has been a revelation at tail back for Baltimore and taken a lot of pressure off Joe Flacco. The Ravens also have a potentially dynamic passing attack if the offense is firing on all cylinders. The Ravens defense finished tied for second this season in sacks with 49. Look for Baltimore to bring the house, as it knows Pittsburgh’s ground attack is weakened. This should be a great game but in the end, the Steelers’ other one-man show, Antonio Brown, should prove to be way too much for a reeling Ravens’ secondary. Steelers win round 3 by a score of 20-13.