Is this premature? Absolutely. Am I going to do it anyway? You bet.
We haven’t seen quarterback drama like this in New England since at least 2017 when the team traded Jimmy Garoppolo to San Francisco. At that point, the Patriots still had Tom Brady. Mac Jones seemed to be Brady’s heir after the Pats spent a first round pick on him in 2021. New England reached the playoffs and Jones was in the conversation for Rookie of the Year.
Oh how things have changed.
Jones opened the season as the unquestioned starter, but suffered an ankle injury in Week 3 that forced him to miss the next three games. Brian Hoyer was supposed to be his short-term replacement, but then the veteran quarterback suffered a concussion during his first start against the Packers.
Enter Bailey Zappe.
The rookie fourth-round pick from Western Kentucky was a bit of a surprise pick by the franchise in this draft, but most viewed him as a developmental prospect who could be a quality backup long term. That has not been the case so far. Zappe nearly upset the Packers in Week 4 coming in to replace Hoyer. He led the Patriots to back-to-back wins over the Lions and Browns, completing 41 of 55 passes for 497 yards with three touchdowns and an interception.
Needless to say, fans in New England were ready for Zappe Hour and The Zappening and everything in between. However, Mac Jones was cleared to return for Monday Night Football against the Bears and got the start. Jones didn’t last long though. He attempted just six passes, amassing 13 yards, and was pulled after throwing an interception. Zappe got the offense moving, scoring a pair of touchdowns to take a 14-10 lead. Things went off the rails from there. Chicago went on to win 33-14.
Zappe clearly provided a spark, but it fizzled and it left New England in a tricky spot at quarterback. Belichick dodged questions about who his starting quarterback would be going forward. He said Jones was taken out of the game because he wasn’t healthy. If that was really the case, then why was Jones out there in the first place? This whole situation is a bit bizarre and really casts a shadow over his future with the team.
It certainly appears that Belichick is no longer 100% committed to Jones. He has been underwhelming this season, with just three touchdowns to six interceptions. His passer rating and completion percentage are also down from a year ago.
As I already noted, this is definitely a bit early to talk about Jones no longer being with the Patriots. This would be very early to move on from a first-round pick at quarterback after just two seasons, especially without a change in the front office. Still, stranger things have happened. If Jones does become available, there are a few teams that will definitely be interested.
Indianapolis Colts The Colts have been searching for a quarterback since Andrew Luck retired. Matt Ryan was the team’s fourth opening day starter in as many years. This team has been searching for a long-term solution, but has only had stop-gap answers. Acquiring Jones could potentially end the carousel at the position.
Now, I can understand why Indianapolis might be hesitant to make this move. The Colts brought in Carson Wentz hoping a change of scenery would bring out the best in a player that looked like an MVP before he suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2017. That obviously didn’t work out as the Colts shipped him out to Washington after just one season.
The difference here is that Jones is still on his rookie deal. Wentz had already signed a mega extension with a ton of money guaranteed. It makes acquiring Jones a much lower-risk move by comparison. Frank Reich is on the hot seat. I’m not sure he will get another chance with this team, but Chris Ballard has put together a pretty good roster outside of the quarterback spot. Jones could give him a consistent, accurate passer to operate a run-focused offense centered around Jonathan Taylor.
New Orleans Saints The Jameis Winston experiment in New Orleans has not gone according to plan. His play has been inconsistent, but more importantly, his health has kept him off the field. An ACL injury cost him the remainder of the 2021 season. Now, he is dealing with multiple fractures in his back and a lingering ankle injury. Andy Dalton has fared well in relief, but I can’t imagine that the Saints really believe he could be the long-term answer at quarterback.
Jones has a similar playstyle to Drew Brees and while Sean Payton is no longer the head coach, this is still largely the same staff. Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael had a lot of success with an incredibly accurate quarterback who lacked elite mobility and arm strength. New Orleans has already sunk a lot of draft capital into this team, so I would not be shocked to see them go all in by acquiring an upgrade at quarterback.
Washington Commanders I already talked about Carson Wentz and how he struggled in Indianapolis. Things have not been much better since he joined the Commanders. His protection was terrible before he suffered a thumb injury that landed him on injured reserve. According to Spotrac, Washington can move on from Wentz this offseason with minimal dead. Releasing him would free up $27 million in cap space. Needless to say, Wentz’s future in D.C. doesn’t look great. I think it is also safe to assume that Washington does not believe in Taylor Heinicke long term. They went out and acquired Wentz despite having Heinicke still on the roster. It feels like this team is poised to look elsewhere this offseason when it comes to the quarterback position.
Jones would certainly need better protection if he were to thrive in Washington, but $27 million would give the Commanders a decent amount to invest in their offensive line. Terry McLaurin would unquestionably be the best receiver Jones has ever worked with and it would be a reunion with his former teammate Brian Robinson. This is another tricky spot with Ron Rivera on the hot seat, but adding a young quarterback on a rookie deal could buy him a bit more time to turn things around in Washington.
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The Patriots drafted Mac Jones in the first round just a year ago. (Wikimedia Commons)
Interesting approach in New England continues The Patriots have made headlines the past few days for shocking everyone with some of their early picks. Saturday didn’t generate any headlines, but it was still a surprising afternoon. New England took Bailey Zappe in the fourth round, ahead of Sam Howell. I supposed the Pats view Zappe, who broke several D-1 passing records at Western Kentucky, as a backup quarterback to Mac Jones. I definitely would have expected Bill Belichick to bring in a veteran to back up Jones. That pick was sandwiched by a pair of running backs. This made absolutely no sense to me. New England has Damien Harris and James White as veteran backs. Rhamondre Stevenson was a third-round selection last year. They also have depth with J.J. Taylor still on the roster. I can’t envision a scenario where the Patriots keep six running backs. White did miss most of this past season with a hip injury, so perhaps this is the end of his time in New England.
A run on punters Well, that’s probably untrue. It wasn’t so much a run, as much as it was surprising to see two punters selected as early as they were. For the first time since 2007, two punters were selected in the first four rounds. Jordan Stout and Jake Camarda were joined later in the draft by Matt Araiza, the booming punter from San Diego State, and Trenton Gill. That made it the most punters taken in one draft since 2018. Not a huge storyline, but something draft nuts like me are interested in.
Speaking of punters… While the unexpected number of punters coming off the board in the fourth round was fun, it did raise some interesting questions in Baltimore. The Ravens traded away Marquise Brown on Thursday night to acquire a first-round pick, which eventually, following a trade down with the Bills, turned into Tyler Linderbaum. Lamar Jackson was notably unhappy with the decision to move on from Brown and he made it clear on Twitter.
Yeah, definitely not a good sign for the Ravens. Jackson and Brown were very close, so this was obviously tough to swallow. Baltimore could have made it a bit easier to swallow by finding a new receiver for Jackson. However, despite having seven Day 3 picks, including six in the fourth round, the Ravens did not draft a receiver. Before you panic, the Ravens are actually flush with young mid-round receivers. They have taken Devin Duvernay, Tylan Wallace and James Proche over the past two drafts. That is in addition to taking Rashod Bateman in the first round in 2021. It seems like they are counting on one of them to step up. There are also veterans receivers like Jarvis Landry, T.Y. Hilton and Odell Beckham Jr. still available. I have a feeling that is how Baltimore plans to address the position.
Sam Howell has a chance to start sooner than you might think The Commanders grabbed Sam Howell with the first pick of the fifth round, stopping the slide for a player that entered the college season as a projected first-round pick. Most quarterbacks taken in the fifth round are not taken with real hopes of starting in the NFL. Strange things happen though. Mike White, a fifth-round pick in 2018, started for the Jets this past season when injuries popped up. Gardner Minshew was a sixth-round pick in 2019. However, I think there is a chance Howell could be in contention to be Washington’s 2023 starter. First of all, he is reunited with one of his college wide outs in Dyami Brown. Second, the Commanders can release Carson Wentz after this season with ZERO dead money. It’s a move that would save the team about $26.1 million in cap space. Now, if Wentz is able to reclaim the form he showed early in his NFL career with the Eagles, this won’t even be a question. But if he struggles again like he did down the stretch with the Colts, this could get interesting, especially if Washington is not in a position to take one of the top quarterbacks in the 2023 draft. Just some food for thought regarding a quarterback I had an early third-round grade on. I think he has starter potential in the league.
Georgia sets a new benchmark In 2020, 14 LSU players heard their name called, matching Ohio State in 2004 for the most players selected in a seven-round draft. Georgia surpassed that on Saturday. Derion Kendrick and John FitzPatrick went with back-to-back picks in the seventh round to set a new record with 15 players drafted from one school in a single draft. It underscores just how talented the Bulldogs were this season and how much Kirby Smart will have to replace this upcoming season. I have a feeling the Dawgs will be moving up in my Pro Potential Power Rankings.
The Steelers do it again Pittsburgh made a sixth-round selection that probably didn’t turn too many heads, but continues a fun trend for this Steelers team. They selected Connor Heyward, a fullback out of Michigan State. He is the brother of Cam Heyward, the Steelers’ stalwart defensive tackle. It actually gives the team four sets of brothers on the roster. Just a fun nugget from today’s draft coverage that gives a bit more context and intrigue to the selection of a sixth-round fullback.
STEELERS NOW HAVE 4 SETS OF BROTHERS ON THEIR ROSTER 🤯
TJ Watt & Derek Watt Terrell & Trey Edmunds Carlos & Khalil Davis Cameron & Connor Heyward (drafted in 6th round of 2022) pic.twitter.com/kQWRSFuk8N
The Jets had a good draft I want to close this out by talking about my team a bit. Part of the reason that I am such a huge fan of the NFL draft is because I’m a Jets fan. When your team is regularly not in the playoffs, you start to think about the future and what could be. Browns and Lions fans know what I’m talking about. There is always hope, followed by bitter disappointment. For the first time in a long time though, I think I might be willing to let myself be optimistic. The Jets crushed this draft on paper. They found value, filled needs and navigated the board with a veteran savvy that felt very out of place given how this team has been run for the past decade. I certainly don’t think the Jets are Super Bowl contenders, but they might actually be a year away from legitimately competing. They rounded out their draft by taking Max Mitchell from Louisiana and Micheal Clemons from Texas A&M. Mitchell has the potential to kick inside in the NFL, which would fill a need for the Jets. Meanwhile, Clemons brings some pass rushing depth to the roster.
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Ridder was the second quarterback selected in the draft at No. 74 overall. (Wikimedia Commons)
If we thought yesterday was rough for quarterbacks… Kenny Pickett was the only quarterback taken on Thursday. We all assumed there would be a flurry early in the second round that would see Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral and Sam Howell all come off the board. Instead, it took until 10 picks into the third round for another quarterback to come off the board. It was the longest we had to wait for the second quarterback to be selected since 1996. Perhaps even more surprising, it was Ridder, not Willis who landed with Atlanta. We knew this quarterback class was not thought of too highly by decision makers in the league, but this was ridiculous.
Willis lands in a great spot Jon Robinson said earlier this offseason that he wanted to find Ryan Tannehill’s successor in this draft. Well, now we know who they intend that to be. Willis will get the chance to sit and learn during his first year or two in the NFL. Tannehill’s contract runs through 2023. Willis has a tremendous amount of upside with his strong arm and mobility. However, he has no pocket awareness and needs to learn how to process at an NFL level. Given Tannehill’s struggles in the postseason each of the past two years, the Titans clearly feel they needed to work on a succession plan. Willis, who was the No. 20 player on my board, has the potential to be better than Tannehill ever was.
Nakobe Dean’s unexpected fall Five Georgia defenders were selected on Day 1. As it turned out, we had to wait until the middle of the third round for the next one to be selected. Nakobe Dean was frequently projected to go late first-round, early second-round. His tumble confounded draft analysts and fans alike. Reports started to surface that Dean passed up shoulder surgery this offseason after coming off pectoral and knee injuries. Those injury concerns caused a massive drop. This is a good situation for Dean though, who will get to play with Jordan Davis again in the NFL. He will also not be asked to start in 2022, allowing him to get healthy.
Belichick traded down three times already in the 2022 draft. (Wikimedia Commons)
Bill Belichick marches to the beat of his own drum I have learned better than to really question what Belichick does. That being said, it seems like the Patriots are picking off a very different board than the rest of the league. Cole Strange in the first round was a bit of a stunner. Tyquan Thornton might have been even more surprising. He went ahead of George Pickens, Skyy Moore and Alec Pierce, among others. Marcus Jones in the third round was pretty on par with expectations. New England clearly had a very different board from many others out there. That being said, both players are good scheme fits and should be productive early in their careers. It was just a surprise to see the Patriots take these players where they did.
No one navigates the draft like Eric DeCosta After having Kyle Hamilton fall into their lap and trading back into the first round to take Tyler Linderbaum, the Ravens landed another elite prospect in David Ojabo. He unquestionably comes with injury concerns and will miss much of this season after tearing his Achilles in March at his pro day, but the upside is incredible. He was regularly mocked to go in the top 15 prior to the injury. Baltimore took it a step further in the third round when it grabbed Travis Jones. They didn’t panic, they simply retooled their defense with a number of players that will help them in 2022 and beyond. Linderbaum replaces one of their biggest free-agent losses. With six, yes that’s right six, fourth-round picks, the Ravens will continue to rebuild the depth on their roster and potentially add some 2023 draft capital if they trade a couple of those selections.
Extending their fives seconds of fame If you were watching the draft, you witnessed some very long lead ups to the announcement of the pick. With celebrities and former players announcing several of the Day 2 selections. For the most part, it went well. There were a couple of slip ups, like Elvis Dumervil calling it the 2002 NFL Draft. However, there were a few notable announcements that took WAAAAAY too long to get to the pick. Former Vikings player turned actor Ed Marinaro took over two minutes to read the name on his card. So long in fact, that the NFL sent a runner on stage to ask him to wrap it up. Kyle Brandt and The Miz took their time, going as far as to declare the Bills and Browns respectively the future champions of Super Bowl LVII. It was probably the worst part of the draft. Just get on the stage, say hi to the fans and read the card. It’s not that hard.
Best players available As you would expect, the consensus started to fall apart on Day 2. Plenty of players expected to go on Day 3 found their way into Day 2 and vice versa.
47. Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA 52. Darian Kinnard, OL, Kentucky 59. Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota 64. Sam Howell, QB, UNC 66. Amare Barno, EDGE, Virginia Tech 67. Cade Otton, TE, Washington 69. Isaiah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M 82. Charlie Kolar, TE, Iowa State 84. Domonique Robinson, EDGE, Miami (Ohio) 87. Brandon Smith, LB, Penn State 91. Dameon Pierce, RB, Florida 93. Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State 94. Calvin Austin III, WR, Memphis 95. Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati 97. Tyler Goodson, RB, Iowa 98. Daniel Bellinger, TE, San Diego State 99. Pierre Strong Jr., RB, South Dakota State
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It’s almost time for football! Training camp is getting underway and the NFL rumor mill is in full effect. Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson and even Chandler Jones could be on the move.
There will be plenty of time to get into all of the potential scenarios for the big names looking for a change of scenery. I wanted to take a look at where every coach in the NFL stands though as we approach the preseason. Every year, we see about seven or eight head coaching openings in the league. Those openings don’t happen without a coach losing his job. Here is an early look at which coaches could be sweating it out at the end of the season. My plan is to update this list at the midway point and again after the regular season.
New York Jets – Robert Saleh Heat Index: 🔥 A rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback. It’s the first time the Jets have ever had both heading into the same season in franchise history. That takes the pressure off everyone here. While seeing a massive turnaround from a 2-14 season would be great, it is not expected. As long as Saleh can show signs that he is putting the pieces in place for future success, that’s all that matters. Besides, after dealing with Adam Gase for two years, Saleh will be a breath of fresh air.
New England Patriots – Bill Belichick Heat Index: 🔥🔥 Could the Patriots really fire Bill Belichick? It feels unlikely. At this point, I think it is more likely Belichick retires or leaves on his own accord than being fired. Still, after a very rocky 2020 season, the Patriots spent a ton of money in the offseason to retool their roster. They also spent a first round pick on Mac Jones. If New England takes a step backward though and the offense flops again, maybe the team could think about making a change. Again, it feels incredibly unlikely, but the expectations are certainly higher for the Patriots in 2021.
Buffalo Bills – Sean McDermott Heat Index: 🔥🔥 The Bills are entering a clear championship window in the final two years of Josh Allen’s rookie deal. Allen took a massive step in 2020 and put together an MVP-caliber campaign. If he can come close to replicating that performance, Buffalo will be very capable of winning its first Super Bowl in franchise history. In order to get to that point, Sean McDermott needs to get the defense back to its 2019 form. With higher expectations comes increased pressure. It would take a truly miserable season for McDermott to lose his job, but he has to deliver.
Miami Dolphins – Brian Flores Heat Index: 🔥 Honestly, if the Dolphins went 0-17 and Tua Tagovailoa lost his starting job to Jacoby Brissett, I think Brian Flores might still keep his job. He is a ton setter and a great culture builder. Let’s be clear, I don’t expect the above scenario to come true. Miami came up one game short of reaching the playoffs in an incredibly competitive AFC. Even if Tagovailoa falters again, I think Flores would get a chance to pick another quarterback and continue building the framework of this team.
Indianapolis Colts – Frank Reich Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥 Which direction are the Colts headed? The team has a championship-caliber roster in a lot of areas. Their front seven is incredible. The secondary should be even better in 2021. The offensive line is definitely among the top five units in the league. They lack a true No. 1 receiver at this point, but they have depth at the skill positions. It now all falls on Frank Reich and Carson Wentz. Indianapolis acquired Wentz this offseason for a decent amount of draft capital, reuniting him with his offensive coordinator from his early days in Philadelphia. If the Colts struggle in what looks to be a fairly weak AFC South and miss the postseason, there could be some significant turnover in Indy.
Houston Texans – David Culley Heat Index: 🔥 If there was ever a team that could be accused of tanking in the NFL, it has to be the Houston Texans. After releasing franchise icon J.J. Watt amid a massive quarterback controversy on the heels of a 4-12 season, it seems like the Texans are entering a long rebuild. With limited draft capital in recent years, this roster has a massive talent deficit compared to the rest of the league. The roster building is confusing as well, as the team continues to target veteran running backs. Deshaun Watson was likely not going to play this season before his pending legal situation unfolded. Now it seems certain he will not see the field in 2021. All of this is to say, there is absolutely no pressure on David Culley to succeed this season.
Tennessee Titans – Mike Vrabel Heat Index: 🔥🔥 Mike Vrabel has the Titans playing at an extremely high level. They are tough, determined and disciplined, which is usually a product of good coaching. After making a splashy move to land Julio Jones, the pressure is on for Tennessee to make a deep postseason run. With Arthur Smith heading to Atlanta, it is going to be interesting to see if the Titans can maintain their offensive success. A major step backward could see Vrabel come under scrutiny. I think his job is safe, but stranger things have happened.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Urban Meyer Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥 It is very bizarre to say a first-year head coach is on the hot seat, but Urban Meyer is unlike most rookie coaches. Meyer comes with a ton of clout from his days at Ohio State and Florida. He also just drafted arguably the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. The heat here mostly stems from Meyer’s checked history with team culture. The league fined the Jaguars $200,000 for OTA violations and slapped Meyer with a $100,000 fine of his own. The fines stemmed from breaking the non-contact rules of OTAs. This comes on the heels of Meyer hiring former Iowa strength coach Chris Doyle. Doyle resigned one day after his hire following a chorus of former Hawkeyes saying he discriminated against them. The Jaguars have a chance to build something special around Trevor Lawrence. There have already been red flags. Jacksonville needs to be sure it has the best possible system in place for Lawrence to succeed.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Mike Tomlin Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥 With Ben Roethlisberger’s tenure in Pittsburgh seemingly at its end, could the Steelers opt for a fresh start and move on from Mike Tomlin as well? It certainly feels possible. Despite winning the AFC North and reaching the playoffs, Pittsburgh struggled mightily down the stretch, including a dismal playoff loss against the rival Browns. With no clear succession plan in place and a roster coming up against the cap, the Steelers could look to rebuild with a new coach and a new quarterback.
Baltimore Ravens– John Harbaugh Heat Index: 🔥🔥 A few years ago ago, it felt very possible the Ravens were set to move on from John Harbaugh. Baltimore missed the playoffs from 2015-2017. Joe Flacco was struggling. The defense was far from its championship-winning dominance in 2012. Lamar Jackson likely saved Harbaugh’s job. Baltimore is now among the top title contenders heading into 2021. Harbaugh feels very safe, but there is always a scenario where he could not be back. There have been concerns around the Ravens offense being too one dimensional with Jackson at the helm. Finally winning a playoff game took the edge off, but if Baltimore somehow misses the postseason in 2021, the heat will be turned up on Harbaugh.
Cleveland Browns – Kevin Stefanski Heat Index: 🔥 After reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2002 and winning the franchise’s first playoff game since 1994, Kevin Stefanski is among the safest coaches in the league. His run-heavy approach was incredibly successful, utilizing the two-headed attack of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to great effect. Stefanski also put Baker Mayfield’s career back on the right path. Now, there are still questions that persist around Mayfield, but after investing heavily in the defense, he might not need to do much for the Browns to be successful again.
Cincinnati Bengals – Zac Taylor Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 Through two years on the job, Zac Taylor owns an ugly 6-25-1 record as a head coach. Some of that is a product of joining a team in the midst of a rebuild, but this is the year to start seeing some progress. Joe Burrow is undoubtedly the quarterback of the future in Cincinnati. Coming off a gruesome knee injury, expectations will be tamped down some for Burrow, but another double-digit loss season could cost Taylor his job. The team needs to take advantage of Burrow being on his rookie contract and can’t afford to waste another year of his development and that salary cap window waiting to see if Taylor can put together a winning formula.
Kansas City Chiefs – Andy Reid Heat Index: 🔥 Unsurprisingly, the pressure seems to be fairly low on Andy Reid. He delivered the franchise its first Super Bowl victory since 1970 in 2019. He led the team back to the big game in 2020 despite having an offensive line decimated by injuries. It cost the Chiefs a chance at repeating, but Kansas City is expected to be among the top contenders to lift the Lombardi in 2021. As long as Reid and Patrick Mahomes are still clicking, the Chiefs are going to be among the best teams in the league.
Denver Broncos – Vic Fangio Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Maybe this is a bit warmer than Vic Fangio truly deserves, but the Broncos are heading into a pivotal season. The team put a lot of faith in Drew Lock by passing on Justin Fields and Mac Jones on draft night. Courtland Sutton is back after missing 2020 due to injury. So is Von Miller. Winning the division is an incredibly tall task at this point with the Chiefs leading the way, but it feels like the Broncos need to be in the playoff conversation for Fangio to keep his job. Another five-win season with suspect quarterback play and a subpar defense is going to trigger a rebuild.
Los Angeles Chargers – Brandon Staley Heat Index: 🔥 Brandon Staley walks into a fantastic situation. He has a talented defense with a number of proven playmakers. He inherits one of the most exciting quarterback prospects in the league in Justin Herbert. Los Angeles is also stocked with some reliable playmakers on offense with Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. The Chargers are simply looking to take a step in the right direction this year. Anthony Lynn was a good coach, but struggled with time management and maintaining leads. If Staley can show an ability to at least be average in those two areas, he will be a major improvement and the Chargers will be at least a league average team.
Las Vegas Raiders – Jon Gruden Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 At what point are the Raiders going to put it all together? Heading into his fourth year of his second stint with the franchise, Jon Gruden has yet to post a winning record or reach the postseason. Las Vegas had its moments in 2020, but on the whole it was a disappointing campaign. If the Raiders don’t show signs of progress, expect a rebuild to follow. Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock have had ample opportunity to shape this team how they want it to. Now it is time for the results to follow.
New York Giants– Joe Judge Heat Index: 🔥🔥 Only entering his second year, Joe Judge might be a victim of circumstance more than anything else if he were to lose his job after this season. New York had a rocky 2020 campaign, finishing 6-10 and struggling to figure out its direction offensively. The Giants are in for a much better season in 2021. Saquon Barkley should be healthy at some point early in the year. Dave Gettleman invested draft capital at wide receiver and edge rusher, two positions of need. However, if Daniel Jones struggles and New York suffers through another 6-10 season, Gettleman will almost definitely be gone and the Giants will be looking to find a new franchise quarterback. If there is already that much turnover, Judge could be gone as well.
Philadelphia Eagles – Nick Sirianni Heat Index: 🔥🔥 It is incredibly rare that coaches are fired after just one season. However, it has also happened twice in the past three years. Steve Wilks only got a single season in Arizona and was fired after 2018. Cleveland canned Freddie Kitchen after a disappointing 2019 campaign. It’s not out of the question for the 2021 season either. I already touched on Meyer. Nick Sirianni is not facing as much pressure as his Jacksonville counterpart, but Philadelphia has never been known for being patient. Sirianni inherits a team with more questions than answers at a number of key positions, namely quarterback. If Jalen Hurts flames out and Sirianni shows no signs of building a positive culture, I could see a scenario where ownership decides to clean house.
Dallas Cowboys– Mike McCarthy Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Speaking of coaches lasting one year with a team, there was some buzz that Mike McCarthy could be done after a single season in Dallas. Even before Dak Prescott went down for the season, the Cowboys looked outmatched. It got much worse after that. McCarthy did enough to somehow earn a second year, but now the pressure is on. Dallas needs to win the NFC East for McCarthy to keep his job. It is an incredibly weak division and the Cowboys have the most talented roster, at least on paper. McCarthy might even need to win a playoff game to truly secure his place in 2022.
Washington Football Team – Ron Rivera Heat Index: 🔥🔥 Ron Rivera seems to have endeared himself well to the fans and to the locker room in D.C. After scraping together a playoff appearance despite a losing record, Washington still has not addressed the quarterback position long term. If it takes a step back in 2021, I don’t think that will be enough to force Rivera out. It would take a truly terrible season to see him lose his job. However, there will be those who feel like Washington’s defense gives them a good chance to repeat as division champions. Expectations lead to increased pressure. Given what we’ve seen in recent years, nothing is out of the question.
Atlanta Falcons – Arthur Smith Heat Index: 🔥 After impressing as the offensive coordinator in Tennessee, Arthur Smith has earned the chance to lead a team of his own. The Falcons are coming off a tough season full of late-game collapses and bad injury luck. Atlanta is caught in limbo as well. They have some veteran players that would make you believe they want to contend, mainly Matt Ryan. The front office gave Ryan a vote of confidence, or realized they could not afford to move him, when it passed on Justin Fields in the 2021 draft. Instead, they grabbed an elite pass-catcher in Kyle Pitts for Ryan to work with. That feels like a move towards contending in the short term. Then, the Falcons traded Julio Jones to Smith’s former team. Like I said, the team is in limbo. I think that bodes well for Smith’s job security while Atlanta attempts to figure out its direction moving forward.
New Orleans Saints – Sean Payton Heat Index: 🔥🔥 It is the end of an era in the Bayou. Drew Brees’ retirement leaves the Saints with uncertainty at quarterback for the first time in a decade and a half. New Orleans is also in salary cap hell after loading up to contend in the future Hall of Famers’ final few years. Now, the Saints seem set for a step backward. Where does that leave Sean Payton? He has shown he can win games without Brees in recent years with Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill stepping in to lead the team when Brees went down with injury. I think the pressure is likely off for Payton in 2021. It is a year for the Saints to retool their roster and identify their new franchise quarterback. If New Orleans tanks, Payton’s seat could get warmer, but I expect him to be back in 2022.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Bruce Arians Heat Index: 🔥 The only way Bruce Arians is not the coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2022 is if he decides to retire after the season. Fresh off a Super Bowl victory, the Buccaneers brought back essentially their entire roster to make a run at a repeat. Even if Tampa suffers from a major Super Bowl hangover and misses the postseason, it would be a rash move to fire Arians. He has the trust of Tom Brady, which goes a really long way in securing his position on one of the best teams in the league.
Carolina Panthers – Matt Rhule Heat Index: 🔥 2020 was a rebuilding year for the Panthers. Carolina rebuilt its defense in the 2020 NFL draft, gave Teddy Bridgewater a try at quarterback and lost their best player for most of the season due to injury as Christian McCaffrey played in just three games. Honestly, going 5-11 was a decent feat given how young Carolina’s starters were on both sides of the ball. Matt Rhule has earned the title of one of the best teachers in the game. His coaching skills were showcased during the Senior Bowl this past January. Given that the Panthers made a move to acquire Sam Darnold, I think the expectations will be slightly higher, but I still don’t think Rhule has anything to worry about heading into 2021.
Detroit Lions – Dan Campbell Heat Index: 🔥 If Detroit goes 1-16 in 2021, that might just be mission accomplished for the Lions. Avoiding a winless season and setting the team up to find its quarterback of the future would be a solid start to what will likely be a long rebuild. Dan Campbell likely won’t let any of that happen. He is competitive as hell and I think we could see the Lions win a game or two that they probably shouldn’t simply by putting in a ton of effort. Campbell is going to have his team motivated to play every week. Unless his tough as nails persona rubs players the wrong way in the locker room, I think Campbell will be given a few more years to rebuild this team.
Chicago Bears – Matt Nagy Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 Drafting Justin Fields likely takes a little bit of heat off Matt Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace. However, I don’t think it changes a tremendous amount for how this duo needs to approach the 2021 season. It needs to be clear at the end of the year that Fields is on track to be a franchise quarterback and that Nagy is the right person to help him reach his potential. Nagy was lucky to keep his job following a 2020 season where Chicago’s offense was nothing short of anemic. The combination of Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky was tough to watch. David Montgomery having a breakout season made up for some of those deficits, but the Bears need to show major progress offensive. It does not mean they will suddenly become the Chiefs or the Buccaneers, but fewer turnovers and sharper play will go a long way.
Green Bay Packers– Matt LaFleur Heat Index: 🔥🔥 Much of how Matt LaFleur will be judged stems from what happens with Aaron Rodgers. Will management blame him for the fractured relationship with the 2020 MVP? Unlikely, seeing as Rodgers’ issues seem to stem more from how the front office operates. There are two ways to spin LaFleur’s tenure in Green Bay. The Packers have reached back-to-back NFC Championship games and dominated the NFC North. For reference, Seattle was the last NFC team to reach back-to-back conference title games in 2012 and 2013. However, unlike the Seahawks, the Packers have been unable to get over the hump. Could another year where the team comes up short in the postseason raise enough questions about LaFleur’s ability to win the biggest games of the year to cost him his job? That seems bold, but don’t rule it out.
Minnesota Vikings – Mike Zimmer Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥 Mike Zimmer said after the 2020 season that Minnesota’s defense was the worst he ever coached. Enter Patrick Peterson, Mackensie Alexander, Bashaud Breeland, Dalvin Tomlinson, Chazz Surratt and Patrick Jones II. Now, it falls on Zimmer to get the most out of this new talent. Kirk Cousins is locked in through 2022, but another lackluster season from the Vikings could get the wheels turning on a rebuild. Especially if Aaron Rodgers does not play this season, this is Minnesota’s division to lose. Failing to do so would be a major letdown that would likely cost Zimmer his job.
Seattle Seahawks – Pete Carroll Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥 An underperforming defense, inconsistent play and a disgruntled star quarterback are a recipe for losing your job as a head coach in the NFL. Pete Carroll has the Seahawks in the mix as a playoff regular, but they have not made it past the division round since their 2014 Super Bowl loss. With Russell Wilson complaining this offseason about his offensive line, it certainly will turn up the scrutiny on Seattle’s performance this season. Another early playoff exit highlighted by a team that can’t quite put it all together could spell the end of Carroll’s tenure.
Arizona Cardinals – Kliff Kingsbury Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥 Entering his third year in charge of the Cardinals, Kliff Kingsbury needs to start producing some results. Arizona came close to reaching the playoffs in 2020, losing the tiebreaker to Chicago for the final spot. However, after starting 5-2, the Cardinals limped to a 3-6 finish. I mean limped literally as well because the team started to struggle right around the time Kyler Murray suffered an ankle injury. Murray still has three years left on his rookie deal, which gives Arizona a fairly lengthy Super Bowl window, but this year feels like an important one to show some progress after signing veterans like J.J. Watt, Malcolm Butler and James Conner to an already talented roster.
Los Angeles Rams – Sean McVay Heat Index: 🔥🔥 While Cam Akers certainly strikes a blow to Los Angeles’ title hopes, it should not drastically change the team’s expectations for 2021. After making the bold move to acquire Matthew Stafford, the Rams are positioning themselves as championship contenders. Taking all of that into account, I still think Sean McVay is entrenched in the organization that he can weather an underwhelming season. Long praised as one of the great offensive minds in the sport, McVay has proven himself to be valuable to this franchise. After all, the team is only three years removed from a Super Bowl appearance. Not to mention, the Rams upset the Seahawks in Seattle with an injured Jared Goff at quarterback. I think McVay is likely safe, but expectations are high for this Rams team heading into 2021.
San Francisco 49ers – Kyle Shanahan Heat Index: 🔥 After slogging through a ridiculous season of injuries, the 49ers seem poised to bounce back in a big way in 2021. However, the team is also facing a changing of the guard at quarterback after selecting Trey Lance with the No. 3 pick in April. I think that actually increases the likelihood Kyle Shanahan keeps his job. He is praised as an offensive guru who has developed several quarterbacks in his coaching career. On top of that, he and general manager John Lynch signed six-year extensions following a Super Bowl appearance. Shanahan will be around for a while in San Francisco.
It’s officially draft week! To kick off our week of draft content at the Aftermath, Brian Mandel, Jack Venezia and Matt Luppino joined me via Zoom to mock the first round of this year’s draft. This was our sixth annual mock draft together. We each take eight picks and operate as the general manager for that selection. This is what we would do if we were in charge on draft day, not what we think is going to happen. It’s a really fun exercise because we each have different priorities and draft boards. For the second year running, we also allowed for picks to be traded. We got a few really interesting swaps, which are as follows.
Detroit trades 1.7 to New England for 1.15, 2.46 and a 2022 second-round pick
New York Giants trade 1.11 and 4.116 to Miami for 1.18 and 2.36
Those moves shook up much of the first round and led to some really fun scenarios. We even got a bonus trade the day after we finished the mock when the Ravens sent Orlando Brown Jr. to the Chiefs and acquired the 31st pick. We obviously went back and amended our final two selections. Without further ado, this is what we think should happen on Thursday night in Cleveland.
1.Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson You know I had to think long and hard on this one. But there is simply no way around it: Trevor Lawrence is the best player named Trevor in this draft class. How could the Jaguars go anywhere else with this pick? Jokes aside, the Jaguars will hope that they found a franchise quarterback in Lawrence. – Venezia
2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU After Darnold was inevitably traded (best of luck to him in Carolina), the Jets could use the opportunity of the second pick to draft their new quarterback of the future. Although Jets decided to pick Wilson, who all of the experts have them picking in their mock drafts, the quarterbacks after Lawrence are closer in ability than many think. Still, Wilson is super athletic, has a great arm, and is an improviser, so a perfect pick for a modern NFL offense. – Mandel
3.San Francisco 49ers via Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State Really interesting pick here – any of the three quarterbacks could flourish in the Kyle Shanahan offense. However, for my money, the big arm, playmaking, and big-game pedigree inch Justin Fields just above Trey Lance and Mac Jones. Oh, and which of these other quarterbacks have beaten Trevor Lawrence head-to-head? That would be Fields. – Luppino
4. Atlanta Falcons – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State Much of the NFL draft hinges on what the Atlanta Falcons decide to do with this pick. It is a popular trade spot in many mock drafts. There were no offers to move up here, so I grabbed the Falcons’ quarterback of the future. Trey Lance has the potential to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL with a huge arm, incredible mobility and a good head on his shoulders. He needs some time to get up to speed in the NFL without a ton of game reps in college. Sitting behind Matt Ryan for a year or two is a great situation for him. Atlanta has other needs, but this sets the team up for future success. – McGlynn
5. Cincinnati Bengals – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon Joe Burrow may want more wide receivers, but with the injuries he has accumulated behind the Bengals’ make-shift offensive line, I had to go elsewhere. Penei Sewell is the clear-cut top offensive tackle pick, making this choice easy for the Bengals. – Venezia
6. Miami Dolphins – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU The Dolphins’ war room is very excited at this moment. They, somehow, have the opportunity to draft the top wide receiver or tight end in the draft. Ja’Marr Chase is one of the best receivers to declare for the draft in a while, and will be an immediate difference maker for Tua Tagovailoa. – Mandel
7. New England Patriots via Detroit Lions – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama Is this the Patriot Way? Maybe not, but with Detroit begging someone to trade up with them and a field general in Mac Jones available, I see New England picking up the phone for their quarterback of the future. If there are several suitors for this pick (Denver, Washington, Chicago), don’t be surprised if that 2022 pick becomes their first rounder. – Luppino
8.Carolina Panthers – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern Carolina would be wise to learn from the Jets’ mistakes with Sam Darnold. Darnold rarely had good protection during his time in the Big Apple. Greg Little is not a reliable left tackle and Russell Okung still has not been re-signed. Rashawn Slater gives the Panthers an instant upgrade at the position. He brings good play power and an extremely high floor because of his ability to play guard. Even if he does not work out as a tackle, he will be a starting caliber interior lineman. – McGlynn
9. Denver Broncos – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State With all of the top quarterbacks taken at this point, the Broncos biggest need is at linebacker. Micah Parsons is the type of all-around player who you could fit into any defensive scheme. While off-the-field issue may be a concern, the Broncos won’t pass up this talent. – Venezia
10.Dallas Cowboys – Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama The Cowboys have a lot of needs to be filled going into the draft, and most of them have to do with their defense. There is a few different directions they could go here, but it’s hard argue against Patrick Surtain II. He has the potential to be a shut down corner, and should be able to play in a few different defensive schemes. – Mandel
11.Miami Dolphins via New York Giants – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida Somehow, Kyle Pitts fell all the way to the 11th pick. The Dolphins see this as chance to have an embarrassment of riches at their skill positions, and know once and for all if Tua Tagovailoa is the right guy to lead their offense. It might have been a little bit of an overpay for them to move up, but it’s worth it for a tight end with Travis Kelce-type potential. – Mandel
12.Philadelphia Eagles via Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama Good luck stacking the box against the Eagles after this. Between Jalen Reagor and Jaylen Waddle, Philly would have two game-breaking receivers. Unlike Reagor though, Waddle is worth the first-round pick. He is possibly the most electric athlete in this class. His suddenness and change of direction speed is incredible and would give the Eagles a reliable No. 1 receiver. Everyone will point to DeVonta Smith’s success, but Waddle was actually putting up even better numbers prior to his injury. He would be a steal at this spot. – McGlynn
13.Los Angeles Chargers – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech Justin Herbert took the NFL by storm last season and if the Chargers want to protect that asset they will make the smart pick and take Christian Darrisaw. He is a bit of a reach at this point in the draft, but the drop off at the position after him is substantial. – Venezia
14.Minnesota Vikings – Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami The Vikings could have gone either side of the line with this pick. With some of the top offensive linemen off the board, drafting Jaelan Phillips seemed to be the best direction. Phillips has the ability to be a top edge rusher with his combination of power, speed and pass rushing moves. He can be an impact defender against the run, too. Still, teams have to recognize that Phillips has some legitimate injury concerns. – Mandel
15.Detroit Lions – DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama Did Detroit just get two second round picks and is still able to get the guy probably at the top of their board? Dan Campbell is killing his first draft! But seriously, after losing Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr., this pick needs to be a receiver, and no one will complain about the Heisman Trophy winner’s route running and hands. – Luppino
16.Arizona Cardinals – Alijah Vera-Tucker, G, USC Arizona is getting by with Brian Winters and Justin Pugh, but Alijah Vera-Tucker would provide a great upgrade along the interior of the offensive line. He could even take over at tackle potentially after playing there during his final season at USC. Kyler Murray loves to scramble, but he can be dangerous from the pocket as well. Keeping him clean as much as possible is essential to the Cardinals’ success. – McGlynn
17.Las Vegas Raiders – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina Cornerback may not the biggest need for the Raiders at this point, but Jaycee Horn was too good of a value to pass up at this point in the draft. Horn could slot in as a starter for Las Vegas from the get-go. Looking back on this now, knowing that none of us drafted Trevon Moehrig in the first round, this is where he should have gone. – Venezia
18.New York Giants via Miami Dolphins – Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan The Giants’ biggest hole is on the edge, but they could not easily justify taking one at 11 with guys like Kyle Pitts still available. Taking advantage of the phone ringing lets Dave Gettleman still grab the top pass rusher on my board, and grab a little capital off the pick-rich Dolphins to fill in other needs. – Luppino
19.Washington – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame The Football Team (can’t believe we are still at this point) thought about trading up for a quarterback before the Patriots swooped in, but they can survive a year with Ryan FitzMagic and Taylor Heinicke running the show rather than having to give up what could be an early 2022 first round pick to move up. Instead, take the best defender available, and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is just that. He will fly all over the field. – Luppino
20. Chicago Bears – Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas Perhaps this is a bit of a reach, but I have always felt that offensive tackle is a good place to be aggressive. Samuel Cosmi is massive at 6’7″, but has some room to fill out his frame. He moves incredibly well for someone his size and could be a real asset in Matt Nagy’s offense. He likely needs a bit of time to fully mature, but he has incredible upside at a major position of need, and value, for the Bears and across the league. – McGlynn
21. Indianapolis Colts – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech I really struggled with this pick. It may have actually been the longest of this mock draft. The offensive tackles and edge rushers (the two biggest needs for the Colts) that are left on the board here are reaches. While the Colts are thin at wide receiver, their current receiving corps is young, and I think they would be better served by signing a veteran after the draft. So, I went for best value available in Caleb Farley, who could have been taken five picks earlier. Venezia
22.Tennessee Titans – Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia The strategy for the Titans is best player available (as it should be for all NFL teams), given all of the holes they have across their team. By picking Azeez Ojulari, Tennessee should be solving one of them. Ojulari will have the potential to be an every down edge ruser that is constantly disrupting the pocket. – Mandel
23.New York Jets – Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern Lots of amazing receivers here – Rashod Bateman, Kadarius Toney and Elijah Moore all caught my eye – but with the Jets holding the 34th pick and two third rounders, I will turn to defensive needs first. Corner is a huge one, especially with division rivals stockpiling weapons in this draft already. The speed of Greg Newsome will do well for a defensive-minded coach like Robert Saleh, maybe even as the team’s top cornerback. – Luppino
24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan I considered grabbing Najee Harris here, but I think Pittsburgh’s issues running the football are more closely linked to a poor offensive line than unreliable running backs. Jalen Mayfield seems poised to start from Day 1 on the right side of the line for the Steelers and could grow into a left tackle with some further coaching. He has great size at 6’5″, 320 pounds and you can’t coach that. There will be some growing pains, but he has the ability to develop into a reliable starter. – McGlynn
25. Jacksonville Jaguars – Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU There are a lot of wide receivers on the board to choose from at this point. Terrace Marshall Jr. stands out to me both literally and physically. He is one of the largest receivers available at this point in the draft and that lanky frame will pair well with Trevor Lawrence’s game. Plus, Jacksonville’s receivers aren’t much to write home about these days. – Venezia
26. Cleveland Browns – Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami With Greg Newsome off the board, I saw this pick as a chance to give the Browns one of the scariest pass rushing groups in the entire NFL. Rousseau has tremendous upside, and should be in a good position to develop next to Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney. He also has shown the ability to to line up on anywhere on the D-Line, which should allow the Browns to get creative on defense. – Mandel
27. Baltimore Ravens – Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa Baltimore could really use an edge rushing linebacker here to replace Yannick Ngakoue and Matthew Judon, both of whom left in free agency. Zaven Collins should probably be right at the top of their list – even though he profiles more as a 4-3 outside linebacker, he showed flashes of pass rushing ability at Tulsa to pair with good coverage and ball pursuit skills. – Luppino
28. New Orleans Saints – Jabril Cox, LB, LSU Jabril Cox is built to play linebacker in the modern day NFL defense. He is fast and reliable in space. His ability to cover backs and tight ends makes him a true three-down player. I love the experience he has coming from both North Dakota State and LSU. He strikes me as a Day 1 starter at weak side linebacker with the potential to take over in the middle when Demario Davis eventually retires. – McGlynn
29.Green Bay Packers – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota The Packers have avoided drafting a wide receiver in the early rounds for a few years, but, as of this moment, they do not have any wide receivers under contract past 2021. Rashod Bateman is an NFL-ready receiver who will provide a solid option opposite Davante Adams while learning from Aaron Rodgers this year. He could also be a foundational piece in years to come. – Venezia
30.Buffalo Bills – Najee Harris, RB, Alabama I was hoping a cornerback or an offensive lineman would fall to Buffalo. However, that failed to happen. Thus, the Bills have to “settle” for Najee Harris. Drafting a running back in the first round can be successful when the team is in a contention window, like the Bills. Ultimately, Harris will super charge an already solid running back group with his power running and jukes. – Mandel
31.Baltimore Ravens via Kansas City Chiefs – Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss Seeing Rashod Bateman off the board not even four picks before it is on the clock hurts, as Baltimore really needs a possession receiver to partner with the reliable Mark Andrews and the home-run threat Marquise Brown. Luckily, Elijah Moore can be that guy out of the slot for Lamar Jackson, running crisp routes over the middle of the field and making guys miss with the ball in his hands. He can go up and get balls too, even though undersized. – Luppino
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama Somehow, Tampa brought back just about everyone from its Super Bowl run despite having a ton of free agents. This team has very few short-term needs, but there are a number of long-term needs along the defensive front seven. Christian Barmore is athletic and powerful and feels like the perfect successor to Ndamukong Suh in Todd Bowles’ defense. With Suh having turned 34 this year, he is likely in the final years of his career. Barmore can serve as a rotational option this season with hopes of starting in 2022.
The Aftermath 