Houston Texans

2023 NFL Mock Draft: Buccaneers, Vikings select QBs while two running backs go in Round 1

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NFL , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Merry Christmas! I mean, Happy Draft Day! For those of us that love the NFL draft, this does feel a bit like Christmas morning. With the anticipation of waiting to find out where all of these prospects will land and which one will end up holding up our favorite team’s jersey, it’s hard not to feel like you are just waiting to open your presents.

To celebrate, I had to put together my final mock draft of the year. Unlike the mock I dropped on Monday, this is what I would do if I were the general manager for each team, not what I anticipate will happen tonight.

Reminder, the first round is only 31 picks this year because the Dolphins were penalized their first-round selection for tampering. With all of that in mind, let’s dive into my final mock for the 2023 draft!

1. Carolina Panthers via Chicago Bears – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
I know Young does not have the size of a prototypical quarterback, but he plays the position as a point guard. He describes it that way himself. You can see it in the way he approaches the position. He is a distributor with excellent leadership skills, great arm strength and impressive ball placement. He is exactly what the Panthers need to kickstart their rebuild.

2. Houston Texans – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
For all the waffling about what the Texans will or won’t do tonight, I think this should be a no-brainer. Stroud is an excellent passer with the athleticism to play the position in a modern NFL offense. He has excellent touch on his passes and more than enough zip to reach every part of the field. There is no doubt he will need to improve the mental side of his game, most notably reading defenses and post-snap progression, but I think he has the tools to be a franchise quarterback.

3. Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
There has been a lot of buzz about the Cardinals trading out of this spot. That would probably be the best move, but I wanted to avoid projecting trades in this mock. Plus, as I wrote in my final player rankings, Anderson is the player in this draft I feel most confident in reaching the Hall of Fame from this draft class. He is a great athlete with incredible collegiate production. He will need to introduce some more varied pass-rush moves to truly thrive in the NFL, but I really like his upside. He would be a great building block for Arizona’s defense.

4. Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Let’s make this clear, Richardson is one of the least pro-ready quarterbacks in this class. He is inconsistent and inaccurate, two traits no NFL quarterback should have. That being said, he also has the highest ceiling of arguably any player in this class. He has elite arm strength, good anticipation and unbelievable mobility. His ability as a runner will make him one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league. However, he needs a coaching staff that will be patient with him. I think a first-year coach like Shane Steichen gives Richardson the best chance to be successful long-term.

5. Seattle Seahawks via Denver Broncos – Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
The Seahawks have been burned by players with character concerns before, but I think Carter is worth the gamble. He is a dominant force on the interior and exactly the type of impact player the Seahawks need in their defense. His play strength is impressive and he is very capable of collapsing the pocket. The production has not quite been there to this point in college.

6. Detroit Lions via Los Angeles Rams – Devon Weatherspoon, CB, Illinois
The Lions have invested in their secondary this offseason, but there is still room to add. Especially, after trading away Jeff Okudah, taking Weatherspoon would give Detroit a true No. 1 corner to lead this group. He is an aggressive corner with decent size and length. I think Dan Campbell will really like what he brings to that table.

7. Las Vegas Raiders – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Corner could definitely be an option, but I think Wilson is the best defensive player on the board. He is long and dynamic off the edge. He will be an asset in the run game from Day 1 and has the skill set to develop into a really strong pass rusher. The Raiders would love to pair him with Maxx Crosby after the Chandler Jones experiment failed so miserably.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Atlanta has been searching for an edge rusher for years now. In this scenario, they wouldn’t have to look too far from their own backyard to find Smith. He absolutely flies off the edge, posting an absurd 4.39 40 time at the combine. He is coming off a torn pectoral muscle that ended his season, but should be ready to contribute right away in the NFL.

9. Chicago Bears via Carolina Panthers – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
If I am the Bears, I am doing everything I can to protect Justin Fields. That means taking the best offensive tackle on the board. Johnson is a former teammate of Fields as well. He is a smooth mover with good power and above average athleticism. I think he will be a Day 1 starter in Chicago.

10. Philadelphia Eagles via New Orleans Saints – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Yes, the Eagles brought back Darius Slay and James Bradberry for another run. However, they don’t really have the future at the position figured out. As we saw last year, Howie Roseman likes to plan ahead. Porter has incredibly long arms and a good awareness for the position. I think he could be a lockdown corner in a couple of years.

11. Tennessee Titans – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
I toyed with the idea of taking a quarterback here, but I think Tennessee needs to rebuild this roster in a big way. How much better would adding Hendon Hooker make them? I don’t think he would be in a position to impact much with a lackluster offensive line and few reliable playmakers on the offense. Adding Jones would give the Titans a long-term solution at left tackle with great length and athleticism.

12. Houston Texans via Cleveland – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
If you want to make your rookie quarterback comfortable, adding one of his college receivers seems like a good place to start. Smith-Njigba is coming off an injury-plagued season, but he is an incredible route runner with good quickness and versatility. He can line up outside or in the slot. With Houston trading away Brandin Cooks this offseason, adding more pass catcher should be high on the to-do list.

13. Green Bay Packers via New York Jets – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
The Packers are suddenly flush with draft capital. Good thing too, because they need to put weapons around Jordan Love. With Robert Tonyan gone, Mayer would be the top tight end on the roster from the moment he arrives in the facility. He is a proven receiver who should have no problem contributing to a running game that features two of the better backs in the league.

14. New England Patriots – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
As a Jets fan, I never want the Patriots to get better. This is especially hard here because I am a big fan of Banks. He is a sticky corner with great speed. His technique needs a bit of refining, but I believe he has all the tools to be a No. 1 corner. New England could use a boost in their secondary. Banks would pair nicely with Jack Jones and give this defense an exciting young cornerback tandem.

15. New York Jets via Green Bay Packers – Peter Skoronski, G, Northwestern
I would have preferred Paris Johnson Jr. or Broderick Jones be on the board in this spot. The Jets have a clear need at left tackle and I worry about Skoronski’s ability to handle long edge rushers given his short arms. That being said, I think he is going to be an All-Pro guard at the next level. New York’s offensive line was decimated by injuries last year. There are much worse things than adding a player capable of lining up at truly any position on the line. Skoronski was a high school center before moving to tackle at Northwestern.

16. Washington Commanders – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Kendall Fuller is in the final year of his contract and Benjamin St-Juste has still yet to truly prove himself as a starting corner. Gonzalez would be a Day 1 starter with good size, speed and positional awareness. His biggest knock is that he needs to get stronger. Too often, he was bullied by bigger receivers in college. If he can find a way to increase his play strength without compromising his movement skills too much, I think Gonzalez is going to be a hell of a player.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
With the top four corners off the board, offensive tackle makes so much sense for the Steelers. Wright has experience at both tackle positions, but seems best-suited to start on the right side. He is powerful and experienced. He will need some technical fine-tuning, specifically with hand placement and pad level, but he should wind up being a huge upgrade Pittsburgh.

18. Detroit Lions – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
In my opinion, the Lions should continue to invest in their defense. Adding Murphy opposite Aidan Hutchinson would give Detroit another athletic edge rusher capable of terrorizing opposing quarterbacks. Murphy is still a bit raw, but had good production at Clemson. His physical traits are fantastic and I fully expect him to be a three-down player in the future.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
Tampa seems to lack a true succession plan to Tom Brady. Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Bringing in Hooker would give them a potential long-term solution. He is coming off a torn ACL, but has told teams he will be ready for Week 1. Ironically, he is the same age as Trask, so the Bucs would not be getting younger at the position, but Hooker should be a much better pro than the former Florida quarterback. He has a great deep ball and is a better athlete than people give him credit for. He will need to show he can consistently hit the target every week to be a successful starter, but I like the idea of him competing with Mayfield for the starting job.

20. Seattle Seahawks – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
Seattle has shown they have no problem doubling down when they have a position that needs addressing. In 2022, they invested two top 50 selections at offensive tackle. This year, it should be on the defensive line. Adding Carter solves some problems on the interior. Van Ness can play on the edge and give the Seahawks a nightmarish front to deal with. I think he has the size and strength to play the LEO position in this defense. Van Ness is still a little bit green, but his power and drive are clear when you put on his tape. I think Pete Carroll will love getting him in the building.

21. Los Angeles Chargers – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
At long last, Robinson comes off the board. With Austin Ekeler rumored to be on the move, Robinson could be his successor and a potential upgrade. That is saying something when the player he would be replacing scored 38 touchdowns over the past two seasons. Robinson is an impressive runner with great elusiveness and power. He is a receiving threat out of the backfield as well. I don’t think Justin Herbert would mind having Robinson to shoulder some of the load on offense.

22. Baltimore Ravens – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Baltimore needs to find more playmakers. Flowers is about as reliable as they come. He produced solid numbers at BC despite mediocre quarterback play. His size will be a concern for some teams and could pose some problems, but I trust in his ability to separate and find space against zone defenses. If the Ravens are going to sell Lamar Jackson on returning to the team, finding him a new safety blanket would probably help the pitch.

23. Minnesota Vikings – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Should the Vikings be in the market for a quarterback? It seems like this new front office is laying the groundwork to find Kirk Cousins’ successor. The more I think about it too, the more I like the idea of Levis going to a situation where he would not have to start right away. He has a rocket for an arm, but lacks a lot of the refining that an NFL passer needs to be successful. He will also need to learn how to better protect his body because he is one of the most reckless runners I have ever seen at the quarterback position. I could see him having long-term success though playing in Kevin O’Connell’s offense.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars – Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State
One of my favorite players in this draft, Brents is a long corner with great fluidity. He dominated the combine and has some solid tape to back it up. I think he has the tools to develop into a high-level starter within his first few years in the league. For the Jaguars, finding another big body to start opposite Tyson Campbell would only make the talented front seven of this defense more lethal.

25. New York Giants – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
With many of the top corners off the board, I think the Giants have to pivot to receiver here. Addison is a polished route runner with elite college production. It helped that he played with Kenny Pickett and Caleb Williams, but there is a reason he was their go-to target. That is exactly what Daniel Jones needs. A player he can look to when it is third down and New York needs to convert. With his ability to line up inside or outside, I like Addison’s fit in Brian Daboll’s offense.

26. Dallas Cowboys – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
With Dalton Schultz leaving in free agency, the Cowboys have a pretty big hole at tight end. Kincaid is not a true like-for-like replacement, but he would be another receiving option in a Dallas offense that seemed to lack them at times in 2022. Kincaid is best-suited to be a slot or hybrid-type player, who is not asked to block much. I’m not quite sure that fits Mike McCarthy’s vision for the position, but Kincaid would definitely help Dak Prescott get back on track this season.

27. Buffalo Bills – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Buffalo has some good playmakers already in this offense. However, they don’t have a player with the size and speed of Johnston. He is a big play threat any time he touches the football and he has a great catch radius. With Stefon Diggs getting older and Gabe Davis in a contract year, adding Johnston gives the Bills a short-term boost with long-term value.

28. Cincinnati Bengals – Steve Avila, G, TCU
Back-to-back TCU players off the board is not something you see very often, especially in the first round. I am in the camp that believes Joe Burrow still needs more protection. Jonah Williams demanded a trade and seems to have no interest in playing guard. Avila could slot in at left guard from Day 1 and immediately improve this offensive line. He is a great pass blocker and would be playing in one of the best passing offenses in the league.

29. New Orleans Saints via San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos – Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
Marcus Davenport is gone. Cam Jordan turns 34 in July. The Saints need some help along the front seven. McDonald turned a lot of heads at the combine, but I feel like the buzz around him has cooled down a bit. He had great production at Iowa State, with 34 career sacks and 40.5 tackles for loss. He is also a great athlete. I think he would be a great fit as a defensive end for New Orleans.

30. Philadelphia Eagles – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Two running backs in the first round??? I know the Eagles typically don’t invest first-round picks at the position, but there is a ton of value in being able to exercise that fifth-year option. Plus, this is their second selection of the round. Gibbs is a home run hitter with great receiving skills. He would be a nightmare to deal with a zone-read scheme. If there is any hesitation from the defense about who to carry, Jalen Hurts or Gibbs, the latter can turn the corner and you will never catch him.

31. Kansas City Chiefs – Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Chiefs trade out of this spot if the board falls this way. With a run on receivers, corners and edge rushers, Kansas City can look to the future. Chris Jones is in the final year of his contract and Derrick Nnadi has yet to make much of an impact. The future at defensive tackle is murky at best. Adding Bresee would give the Chiefs an athletic prospect to develop.

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2023 Predictive NFL Mock Draft: Raiders, Seahawks trade up, Texans pass on QBs

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NFL , , , , , , , , , , , ,

It is officially draft week! There are rumors flying everywhere and no one knows what to believe. It is a wild, chaotic and exciting time of year.

Each year, I put together a predictive mock draft, outlining what I believe will happen on draft day. This is very different from what I would do if I were picking for these teams. Some of this is based on what I have read from league insiders and team reporters and some of it is my own prediction based on where it seems like players are ranked and how teams typically value certain positions.

I also decided to project a couple of trades.

Las Vegas trades 1.7, 4.144 and a 2024 1st to Arizona for 1.3

Seahawks trades 1.20, 3.83 to Washington for 1.16, 6.193

Reminder, the first round is only 31 picks this year because the Dolphins were penalized their first-round selection for tampering. With all of that in mind, let’s dive into my latest mock!

1. Carolina Panthers via Chicago Bears – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
This one feels like a foregone conclusion. Young is listed at -1000 or shorter odds at pretty much every sportsbook in the country. He also canceled his final few private workouts and visits. I think Frank Reich and Scott Fitterer will feel good about turning in the card.

2. Houston Texans – Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
Well if Bryce Young feels like an obvious choice, then the Texans’ pick is the exact opposite. At this point, we have seen four different players favored to go at the No. 2 spot. In the end, I think Houston recognizes this is a multi-year rebuild. Will Anderson is the best player available and will give new head coach DeMeco Ryans a major building block on defense.

3. Las Vegas Raiders via Arizona Cardinals – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
If Houston does go with anything other than quarterback, the phone lines will light up for the Cardinals. I think trading down with the Raiders is a great situation that allows Arizona to stay in the top 10 while picking up meaningful draft capital to rebuild. For Las Vegas, Stroud gives the team a long-term answer at quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo is an injury-prone stopgap, but he would allow Stroud to start when he is ready.

4. Indianapolis Colts – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The rumor mill continues to point to the Colts loving Levis. With Young and Stroud off the board, I think Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard are in love with Levis’ arm strength and mobility. This is not the move I would make, but I am buying the buzz around this fit.

5. Seattle Seahawks via Denver Broncos – Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
Despite the off-the-field concerns with Carter stemming from his arrest in March, I still expect him to be selected high in the 2023 draft. Seattle has a massive need at defensive tackle. If there is a team that I’m not worried about handling a player with some red flags, it would be the Seahawks with Pete Carroll at the helm.

6. Detroit Lions via Los Angeles Rams – Devon Weatherspoon, CB, Illinois
Another popular pick in most mock drafts, the Lions are in the midst of a massive overhaul of their secondary. Detroit signed a pair of veterans and traded away 2020 first-round pick Jeff Okudah. I think Weatherspoon would complete the make over. He is disciplined, dynamic and reliable, all things Dan Campbell will love right away.

7. Arizona Cardinals via Las Vegas Raiders – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
This is a nice scenario for the Cardinals. Moving down and adding additional draft capital while still landing one of the top edge rushers in the class feels like a big win. Wilson could end up going much higher than this, but it would not shock me to see him “slide” to the back half of the top 10. He has a lot of fans in NFL front offices.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
The Falcons should not look too far for this one. Smith missed the end of the 2022 season with a torn pectoral muscle, but dominated the combine. Atlanta desperately needs pass rushing help. He is a toolsy player with a ton of upside and I think Terry Fontenot will take the local product in hopes of developing him into a star.

9. Chicago Bears via Carolina Panthers – Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
Chicago could go a number of directions, but I think the offensive line is going to be the priority. Skoronski has position flexibility and is well-regarded in NFL circles. I don’t think Ryan Poles will be deterred by his shorter-than-average arms.

10. Philadelphia Eagles via New Orleans Saints – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Eagles are tough to pin down. I would not rule out Howie Roseman building in the trenches, but I think he understands that he is going to need to plan for the future at cornerback. Gonzalez is a talented cover man who needs to get a bit stronger, but much like Philly did with Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean a year ago, it could take Gonzalez a year before needing him to start.

11. Tennessee Titans – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Could a team trade up for Richardson? Absolutely, but I think there are plenty of question marks around the former Florida star. He is the most dynamic quarterback prospect since Lamar Jackson, but he is inexperienced and unpolished. Given the outlook for Ryan Tannehill past this season, I think the Titans will view this as a great opportunity to get their quarterback of the future. He could sit for a year, before taking over in 2024.

12. Houston Texans via Cleveland – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
The Texans could take Hendon Hooker here, but I think the front office realizes it needs someone capable of catching the ball. After trading away Brandin Cooks, there is very little proven pass-catching talent on the Texans roster. Smith-Njigba is coming off an injury-riddled season, but was arguably the best receiver on the 2021 Ohio State offense that featured Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. He would give the Texans a No. 1 target for whoever they eventually tab as their franchise quarterback.

13. New York Jets – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Assuming the Jets eventually end up with Aaron Rodgers, New York needs to protect him. As of now, left tackle is a huge question mark. It feels like a safe bet that the Jets will take the best offensive tackle on the board. In this case, it would be Johnson, who spent the year starting at left tackle after playing right guard in 2021.

14. New England Patriots – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Bill Belichick is never an easy general manager to pin down. The Patriots could go corner, wide receiver or offensive tackle. I think Jones will be the pick given how the board has fallen so far. Trent Brown is in the final year of his contract, so Jones could be the 2024 starter at left tackle and potentially compete for the starting right tackle spot in 2023.

15. Green Bay Packers – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
At long last, the Packers could draft a pass-catcher. Kincaid has shot up draft boards over the past few months. He is a polished prospect who can contribute from Day 1. With Robert Tonyan gone and Mercedes Lewis out of a contract, this would fill a huge need for Green Bay.

16. Seattle Seahawks via Washington Commanders – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
Seattle has a ton of draft capital from the Russell Wilson trade. I think they could cash in a couple of chips to move up for a player they really like. Rumor is that the Commanders are taking calls for the 16th pick. Feels like a good match. In this case, the Seahawks can leapfrog the Lions and Buccaneers to grab Van Ness. He is a bit unrefined, never starting for Iowa because Kirk Ferentz always starts seniors, but he is an athletic, ascending talent.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
ESPN Steelers Reporter Brooke Pryor recently said Porter reminds her of Najee Harris in 2021. Everyone knew Pittsburgh wanted Harris and he fell right into their laps. Porter could be in the same position. He is a long-arm corner who would fill a big need for the Steelers after losing Cameron Sutton.

18. Detroit Lions – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
I fully expect the Lions to double dip on defense in the first round. Murphy is an athletic edge rusher who could rotate into Detroit’s pass rushing sets. Adding him to a group that already includes Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston would be a dream scenario for defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Donovan Smith retired and now Tristan Wirfs is sliding over to left tackle, which means the Buccaneers have a clear need at right tackle. The buzz is that Wright has a ton of fans around the league and should go in the top 25. He could compete with Matt Feiler, who signed with Tampa in free agency, for the starting right tackle job from Day 1.

20. Washington Commanders via Seattle Seahawks – Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
The Commanders have repeatedly said they feel comfortable with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett. I’m not so sure I believe that. Especially if Hooker is on the board at this point. Trading down and landing Hooker would be a huge win for Washington. He won’t be ready to start right away as he continues to rehab from a torn ACL, but he could be the long-term answer at the position.

21. Los Angeles Chargers – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Someone has to stop the slide for Robinson. With Austin Ekeler likely on the move, Los Angeles will need a new starting option in the backfield. Robinson would take a ton of pressure off Justin Herbert while giving him another pass-catching option. He would also be much cheaper than paying Ekeler long term.

22. Baltimore Ravens – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Ravens are more than comfortable spending premium draft picks at cornerback. Banks has drawn comparisons to long-time Ravens corner Marlon Humphrey. In this scenario, Banks would start opposite Humphrey, giving Baltimore an exciting, young tandem on the outside.

23. Minnesota Vikings – Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Yes, the Vikings could draft another corner. Despite investing a ton of draft picks at the position in recent years, Minnesota is still unsettled at cornerback. Patrick Peterson and Cameron Dantzler both departed during the offseason. Forbes is a bit undersized, he weighed in at 166 pounds at the combine, but he is a playmaker. He had six defensive touchdowns and 14 interceptions in college career.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
With the top five corners off the board, Jacksonville will have to pivot. Evan Engram is back again, but he is on the franchise tag. There is also not much behind him that inspires confidence. Michael Mayer is a well-rounded prospect with good production. He and Engram would be an exciting tandem this season while providing Jacksonville with a long-term option if Engram is gone in 2024.

25. New York Giants – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Offensive playmakers have been the focus this offseason for the Giants. Adding Darren Waller was a good start. Drafting Flowers would go a long way as well. He is a bit undersized at 5’9″, 182 pounds, but he has good hands and a ton of collegiate production. I fully expect New York to go receiver in this spot, especially with so many cornerbacks already off the board.

26. Dallas Cowboys – Steve Avila, G, TCU
This is a move I have been hearing more and more in recent days. Avila is a battle-tested guard who has gone up against good competition. He more than held his own against Georgia in the national championship game. Connor McGovern signed with Buffalo this offseason. Adding Avila would allow Tyler Smith to play right tackle or even left tackle if Tyron Smith deals with any more injuries.

27. Buffalo Bills – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The Bills are going to load up for another deep playoff run. Gabe Davis will be in a contract year in 2023 as well. Bringing in Addison would give Buffalo an elite slot receiver with the ability to play on the outside as well. Josh Allen would be out of excuses with that trio to throw to.

28. Cincinnati Bengals – Brian Branch, S, Alabama
This is a good meeting of need and value for Cincinnati. Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates both departed in free agency this offseason. Daxton Hill can hold down one spot, but another safety is needed. Branch did not have a great combine, but he has some quality tape and offers nice versatility.

29. New Orleans Saints via San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos – Derick Hall, EDGE, Auburn
The Saints tend to have a slightly different draft board than most others. They also value pass rushers in a big way. I could see Mickey Loomis falling in love with Hall, who had 15.5 sacks and 24 tackles for loss in his final two seasons at Auburn. With Marcus Davenport leaving in free agency, this is where I see the Saints going.

30. Philadelphia Eagles – Calijah Kancey, DL, Pittsburgh
The Eagles love to build in the trenches. Even after selecting Jordan Davis last year, Kancey could be a good fit. Fletcher Cox signed a one-year deal to return to the team and Javon Hargrave left for San Francisco. Kancey is a bit undersized, but he brings a ton of pass-rush ability to the table. Philly has valued interior pass rush in the past. I could see them prioritizing that once again.

31. Kansas City Chiefs – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Chiefs showed last year that they were more than capable of replacing Tyreek Hill’s production. However, JuJu Smith-Schuster played a large role in that and he is now in New England. Once again Kansas City needs more options for Patrick Mahomes. Landing Johnston would be a huge help. He is a big-body target with good open-field speed. He would add another element to this Chiefs offense.

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2023 NFL Mock Draft: How does the Panthers moving up to No. 1 impact the first round?

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NFL , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

We have a new team picking first overall! The Bears and Panthers finalized a trade on Friday that sent the No. 1 pick to Carolina. Now the Panthers are on the clock. The move has massive implications for the rest of the league as well.

There were a few other trades that I decided to make for this mock, including some big-name quarterbacks changing teams. The following trades were made in this mock:

Las Vegas trades 1.7 to Green Bay for Aaron Rodgers, 4.117

Jets trade 1.13, 2024 1st to Baltimore for Lamar Jackson

Baltimore trades 1.13, 1.22 and 2024 2nd to Arizona for 1.3

Giants trade 1.26, 3.89, 5.160 to Tampa Bay for 1.19, 6.194

So Aaron Rodgers is a Raider, Lamar Jackson is a Jet and Ravens now have a top 3 selection. Is all of this likely? No, not particularly. But there is a real possibility these teams are all facing the prospect of not having a plan at quarterback heading in 2023. That usually leads to some moves we might not have expected. Plus, it is fun to explore the domino effect of different offseason moves.

Reminder, the first round is only 31 picks this year because the Dolphins were penalized their first-round selection for tampering. With all of that in mind, let’s dive into my latest mock!

1. Carolina Panthers via Chicago Bears – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Carolina sold the farm to move up. You take the best quarterback on the board. That is Young for me. He has size limitations, but I love his game. I think he will translate very well to the NFL and benefit from playing under Frank Reich.

2. Houston Texans – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Nothing really changes for the Texans. They are still in position to land one of the top two quarterbacks in this draft class. I think there is a clear gap between Stroud and the other two QBs still on the board. He is accurate, precise and polished. Houston’s rebuild has to start somewhere. Might as well be with a potential franchise passer.

3. Baltimore Ravens via Arizona Cardinals – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Let’s get wild here. It is tough to figure out what the Ravens will do if Lamar Jackson does in fact leave. It feels unlikely, but in this mock, I have Jackson headed to the Jets. Baltimore has shown they can make it work with one project quarterback with elite running ability. Why not try that again? Richardson is very raw, but he could sit for a year behind Tyler Huntley before taking the reins in 2024.

4. Indianapolis Colts – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Colts get the short end of the stick in terms of quarterbacks available. Levis is my QB4, narrowly behind Richardson. I still maintain Indianapolis should have moved up to No. 1. I think Levis has the tools to be successful at the next level, but he is a project with a lower ceiling than Richardson. Indy would still be in a bit of a rebuild after adding him.

5. Seattle Seahawks via Denver Broncos – Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
This would be a potential dream scenario for the Seahawks. Anderson would give them a bonafide franchise player to build around. Seattle can afford to spend more draft capital at the position as well with that second first-round selection.

6. Detroit Lions via Los Angeles Rams – Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
Dan Campbell will be salivating if Carter is on the board at pick six. I think he could be the right type of coach to help Carter straighten out a bit following his legal troubles. On the football field, the former Georgia star would be an instant impact player for a team in desperate need of a defensive upgrade.

7. Green Bay Packers via Las Vegas Raiders – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Green Bay is in an interesting spot here. I think they would wind up going best player available trying to retool a defense that disappointed a year ago. Wilson is long and disruptive off the edge. Pairing him with Devonte Wyatt and Kenny Clark would give the Packers a fearsome defensive line.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Atlanta’s pursuit of a pass rusher should finally come to an end in the 2023 draft. With two already off the board, I have them choosing a local product coming off a serious injury. Smith was a dynamic team leader at Georgia prior to the torn pectoral muscle. He showed at the combine why he should be in Top 10 consideration.

9. Chicago Bears via Carolina Panthers – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
The Bears clearly committed to Justin Fields. Now they need to build around him. Adding my top offensive tackle is a good place to start. Chicago’s offensive line has been bad for years. Johnson is a fluid mover with great size and length. He has starting experience at multiple spots on the offensive line. I like the idea of reuniting him with his former college teammate.

10. Philadelphia Eagles via New Orleans Saints – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
The run on quarterbacks and edge rushers pushes the corners down the board, but the Eagles will not mind. Amidst reports of a Darius Slay trade demand and James Bradberry headed for free agency, Philadelphia needs help on the outside. Witherspoon is a downhill type of player capable of setting the tone for a defense.

11. Tennessee Titans – Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
Rumors of a fire sale in Tennessee could shift the trajectory of this pick, but with no quarterback on the board worth taking, the front office has to go offensive line here. Skoronski is a talented player, but lacks the ideal length to start in the NFL. We have seen plenty of players overcome that issue before, but it could mean he winds up kicking inside. Not the best outcome, but the Titans could use help at pretty much every offensive line spot.

12. Houston Texans via Cleveland – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
If the Texans believe C.J. Stroud is their franchise quarterback, they will need to get him some receiver to target. Brandin Cooks is still seeking a trade and Houston does not have a whole lot that inspires confidence when it comes to the remaining receivers on the roster. Smith-Njigba was a nightmare for opposing defenses and showed just how explosive he could be at the combine. Don’t overthink the injuries. Go get a game-changing playmaker.

13. Arizona Cardinals via Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
This pick ultimately lands with the Cardinals after being sent to the Ravens by the Jets. I am cramming a lot into his mock draft. Arizona simply needs to start over on defense. Murphy is a quick-twitch athlete with tons of potential.

14. New England Patriots – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
New England’s secondary is headed for a massive makeover. Porter would provide a nice base layer. He is uncommonly long for a cornerback and uses that length to frustrate opposing receivers. He needs a bit of refining, but I trust Bill Belichick will give him all the coaching he needs to be great.

15. Green Bay Packers – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Green Bay cannot make the same mistake it did with Aaron Rodgers this time around with Jordan Love. Adding Addison, who tore up college football over the past two seasons, to a young receiver corps containing Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs would be a great way to set Love up for success.

16. Washington Commanders – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Washington could go a number of directions here, but I think taking Gonzalez would be a perfect example of where value meets need. Washington’s secondary has been the only weak point on an otherwise impressive defense. Gonzalez’ size and improving ball skills make me believe he could be a No. 1 corner.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Pittsburgh needs to protect Kenny Pickett. Plain and simple. Finding someone to open holes for Najee Harris would be nice, too. Jones is coming off a fantastic season with Georgia in which he did not allow a sack. He is still a bit inexperienced, but has the traits and intangibles to grow into the role.

18. Detroit Lions – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
After nabbing a defensive lineman at No. 6, Detroit double dips on that side of the ball with Banks. The Lions desperately need improved cornerback play. Banks is an athletic phenom with all the tools to turn into a shutdown corner. It might not be immediate, but there is a lot to like down the line.

19. New York Giants via Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
New York paid big money to keep Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley. Now they need to make that investment worth it. Trading up a few picks to grab a potential crucial puzzle piece feels like a logical move. Flowers is a bit undersized, but could thrive playing in the slot. The Giants desperately need someone to turn to on third downs.

20. Seattle Seahawks – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
Much like the Lions, the Seahawks also have the opportunity to double up on defense. Anderson is a stand up edge rusher in Seattle’s defensive scheme. Van Ness would likely be playing with his hand in the dirt. He has the play strength to kick inside and be effective. I think Pete Carroll and John Schneider would be happy to continue building in the trenches.

21. Los Angeles Chargers – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Los Angeles needs to find more pass-catching options and improve their blocking ability. Mayer checks both boxes. He is a pro-ready prospect with good college production. Add in good size and above average athleticism and you have a player that should make Justin Herbert’s life much easier.

22. Arizona Cardinals via Baltimore Ravens – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
I felt a bit conflicted about this one, but the Cardinals desperately need help along the offensive line. Four of their five starters from 2022 are free agents. Wright would give Arizona solid bookends to the unit opposite D.J. Humphries. The former Tennessee tackle broke out in his senior season following a shift to the right side of the line.

23. Minnesota Vikings – Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
Turnover in Minnesota is coming. Adam Theilen is already gone. Dalvin Cook and Harrison Smith could potentially follow. There are a number of ways the Vikings could go, but improving a horrific defense should outweigh many other concerns. McDonald brings jobs of athleticism, good production and tons of experience to the table following five years with the Cyclones.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars – Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State
I know I am higher on Brents than the consensus, but I have been blown away by his performances over the past two months. After tearing up the Senior Bowl, he crushed the combine. Couple that with great measurables and you have a player who should go in the top 31 picks (that feels weird to write). For Jacksonville, finding a corner to pair with Tyson Campbell should be a priority this offseason.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers via New York Giants – Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
Tampa Bay’s draft approach will largely be shaped by what they do in free agency, with so many key starters set to test the open market. As of now, defensive tackle is a clear need. Bresee has yet to fully recapture the form he flashed as a true freshman at Clemson. However, he had a solid season and looked sharp at the combine. He could be a Day 1 starter for the Bucs.

26. Dallas Cowboys – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Cowboys’ offense will look very different in 2023. Mike McCarthy is taking over as the playcaller. Zeke Elliott will likely be gone. And Dallas will almost definitely have a different receiver to pair with CeeDee Lamb. My vote at this stage would be Johnston, who is a jump ball threat with impressive long speed. I think Dak Prescott would benefit greatly from adding a player of Johnston’s caliber to his group of pass catchers.

27. Buffalo Bills – O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida
Buffalo’s interior of the offensive line has slowly decayed over the past few seasons. Without many reliable in-house solutions, the draft would be a logical spot to rebuild the unit. Torrence balled out in his lone year at Florida after following Billy Napier over from Louisiana. I like him as an immediate starter at the next level.

28. Cincinnati Bengals – Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
With Hayden Hurst headed for free agency, the Bengals could be in the market for a new tight end. Washington is a unique prospect given his combination of size and athleticism. Putting him in place to protect Joe Burrow, open up lanes for Joe Mixon and offer an additional target alongside Cincy’s outstanding trio feels like a slam dunk pick.

29. New Orleans Saints via San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos – Josh Downs, WR, UNC
Derek Carr is the new leader of the offense in New Orleans. As of now, it is not overly clear who he will be throwing to other than Chris Olave. Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are free agents while Alvin Kamara is facing legal trouble. Downs is a silky smooth route runner with great hands. He looked fantastic at the combine and I think deserves to be in the Round 1 conversation.

30. Philadelphia Eagles – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Prepare to see this pick mocked a lot. There will certainly be a chance Robinson goes sooner given his talent, but the league has clearly devalued the position in a big way. For Philadelphia, Robinson would be a much cheaper and more talented option than bringing back Miles Sanders. Putting him and Jalen Hurts in the same backfield might be bordering on unfair for the rest of the league.

31. Kansas City Chiefs – Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
Kansas City is facing the possibility of needing to replace both offensive tackles this offseason. The Chiefs have learned from past mistakes and will certainly be spending draft capital and other resources to protect Patrick Mahomes. Jones could be part of that equation. He is a massive man with good functional athleticism for that size. I think he could be a quality starting right tackle down the line.

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2023 NFL Mini Mock Draft: Bears trade down from No. 1

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NFL , , , , , , , , , , ,

It has been a long time since I have done a mock draft. With the first 18 picks of the draft officially set, I figured this would be a perfect time to dive back in. I will go through and project all 31 first-round selections soon, (remember the Dolphins forfeited their first round pick for tampering), but I wanted to run through all the picks we already know first. Let’s kick this off with a big trade.

Indianapolis trades 1.4, 2.36, 2024 1st to Chicago for 1.1, 4.103

It seems like a lot, but that’s the price you have to pay to land a franchise quarterback. It’s the only deal I’ve made in this mini mock, so let’s see how the first 18 picks could turn out.

1. Indianapolis Colts via Chicago Bears (3-14) – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The Bears earning the No. 1 pick opens the door for a really interesting offseason of wondering what they will do with the pick. Chicago could certainly stay put and take the top player on their board. However, this team is more than just one player away and this still puts them in a position to get a talented difference maker while adding more draft capital. For the Colts, they have had a revolving door at quarterback since Andrew Luck retired. Bryce Young would end that carousel. He is undersized, but there are few players who play with the poise the Alabama quarterback brings to the table. He is incredibly consistent and has a great arm. The Colts would finally get their franchise signal caller.

2. Houston Texans (3-13-1) – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
It is hard to fault the Texans for playing for the win, but it could cost them the top quarterback on the board. C.J. Stroud is a hell of a consolation prize. The Ohio State quarterback dominated in 2021 and followed it up with another strong campaign in 2022. He answered a ton of questions scouts had with his performance against Georgia, even in a loss. The question will be how he handles playing without a world class receiving corps. Or will he? Remember the Texans have another first-round pick courtesy of the Deshaun Watson trade.

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-13) – Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
Exit J.J. Watt. Enter Will Anderson Jr. Make no mistake, Anderson will not replace the void left by the future Hall of Famer, if for no other reason than Watt outweighs him by roughly 40 pounds. Anderson would be an outside linebacker in that Cardinals defense. And he has the potential to be a game-changing player. He is one of the most productive edge rushers we have seen in recent memory, racking up sacks and tackles for loss like it was nobody’s business for the Tide. Adding an elite pass rusher like Anderson would go a long way to turning around this Cardinals defense that ranked 24th in sacks this season.

4. Chicago Bears via Indianapolis Colts (4-13) – Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
This is a great scenario for the Bears. Jalen Carter would fill a massive need for Chicago’s defense and is arguably the most talented player in this draft. He is my No. 1 prospect right now, but the gap between him and Anderson is tiny. Putting Carter into a 4-3 scheme would be a great way to maximize his skill set. He does a great job collapsing the pocket and shedding blocks. With that Bears defense in for a major rebuild, Carter would be a fantastic player for Matt Eberflus to build around.

5. Seattle Seahawks via Denver Broncos (5-12) – Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
Through one year, Seattle seemingly crushed the 2022 NFL draft and won the Russell Wilson trade. The Seahawks rebuilt their offensive line and added a dynamic running back in Kenneth Walker III. However, Seattle still has some room for improvement on their defensive front seven. Bryan Bresee would be a great fit as a 3-tech defensive end for Pete Carroll and company. He has the size and strength to control the line of scrimmage and the speed to wreak havoc in opposing backfields. Putting him on a defensive line featuring Poona Ford and Shelby Harris, who could be a potential cap casualty, would create an exciting unit.

6. Detroit Lions via Los Angeles Rams (5-12) – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
It was a very successful season for the Lions, who wound up right on the cusp of their first playoff berth since 2016. With a pair of first-round picks this year, Detroit is in a real position to push themselves over the edge in 2023. Myles Murphy is a dynamic edge rusher who seems to just be scratching the surface of his potential as a pass rusher. His first step and power to battle with offensive tackles off the edge are impressive. He needs to improve his pass rush planning, but playing under Aaron Glenn and across from Aidan Hutchinson should help unlock his potential.

7. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11) – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
This is going to be a very interesting offseason for the Raiders. Derek Carr’s future is currently up in the air and whatever Las Vegas decides to do with their long-time quarterback will dictate every move they make after that. The likelihood is, Carr will be playing elsewhere next year, which opens up a clear need for a quarterback. There is a chance the Raiders would go after a veteran option, but being in a position to draft a young quarterback is not one I think this front office will pass up. Will Levis is a bit raw, but has some fantastic traits and tools for Josh McDaniels to work with. I think long term, he could be a really solid player for the Raiders and brings a ton of upside to the position.

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
The Falcons have been searching for pass rushing help for what feels like a decade. Atlanta finished the 2022 season ranked second to last in sacks, tallying just one more than Chicago. While the Falcons have invested in some young options like Arnold Ebeketie and DeAngelo Malone, they need to have someone lead the charge. That could be Tyree Wilson. He is a better run defender than pass rusher at this point, but he had solid production, posting seven sacks each of the past two seasons. I like him best as a 5-technique defensive end, but I think he has the range to be an outside linebacker, especially if he is allowed to play in a more attacking role.

9. Carolina Panthers (7-10) – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Carolina finds itself out of a position to draft a quarterback and perhaps willing to give Sam Darnold one more year to bridge the gap to whoever the long-term answer winds up being for this franchise. While the Panthers have some intriguing young talent on the roster, most of it is on the defensive side of the ball. They need another playmaker on offense, particularly after trading away Christian McCaffrey at the deadline this year. Enter Quentin Johnston, who is bound to make any quarterback better with his catch radius and yards after the catch ability. His 6’4″ frame and breakaway speed make him a matchup nightmare for opposing teams and a unique chess piece for whoever winds up running this Panthers offense next season.

10. Philadelphia Eagles via New Orleans Saints (7-10) – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
It is rare for a team to finish with the No. 1 seed in their conference and a top-10 pick, but that’s where the Eagles find themselves. I would consider selecting an offensive tackle here with Lane Johnson getting older, but Darius Slay is 32 and James Bradberry is a free agent after this season. Both could be back, but the Eagles need to address the position for the long term. Joey Porter Jr. has incredible length that allows him to disrupt passing lanes and break up throws all over the field. He had an impressive season for Penn State and is in the mix to be the first corner selected this year. I will be very interested to see how he runs at the combine, but I love his frame and length.

11. Tennessee Titans (7-10) – Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Seven straight losses saw the Titans go from a contender in the AFC to picking just outside the top 10. Tennessee fired Jon Robinson midseason and now will look to retool this roster for another run at winning the division. Adding Peter Skoronski feels like a good place to start. He turned a lot of heads with his play at Northwestern this season and will be right in the mix to be the first tackle selected come draft time. He would fill a major need for the Titans and hopefully allow the team to maximize whatever time they have left with Derrick Henry in his prime.

12. Houston Texans via Cleveland (7-10) – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
I teased this move during the first Texans pick, but pairing C.J. Stroud with one of his former targets in college feels like a really good way to get him acclimated to the NFL. Jaxon Smith-Njigba will have a number of injury questions to answer after missing pretty much the entire 2022 college season due to a hamstring issue. However, we saw him light it up a season ago when at full strength, leading a Buckeyes team that featured Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Marvin Harrison Jr. in receiving yards and touchdowns. He is a reliable playmaker who can line up in the slot or out wide. Houston desperately needs receiver help as well, so this feels like an obvious move.

13. New York Jets (7-10) – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
The Jets feel like they are a quarterback away from competing with the best in the AFC. They knocked off the Bills this season and seemed poised to snap their league-leading 12-season playoff drought. Instead, the offense went from average to anemic down the stretch and New York failed to score a touchdown in its final three games. Offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur’s future is uncertain at the moment as is the outlook for the Jets at quarterback. I imagine the team will opt for a veteran rather than rolling the dice on Anthony Richardson or Will Levis. If that is the case, Joe Douglas needs to ensure whoever is throwing passes has time to do so. Paris Johnson Jr. could step in at either tackle or guard from Day 1 and provide some much-needed stability. He has the experience and versatility to be invaluable to this New York offense.

14. New England Patriots (8-9) – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Mac Jones took a clear step backward this season. The blame for that could belong to a number of factors ranging from questionable coaching to a lack of weapons. Don’t overlook the impact of poor protection either. New England finished the season 17th in pass block win rate as Jones had the 12th-highest sack rate in the league. For a quarterback that struggles with mobility, pass protection is crucial. Broderick Jones should help resolve some of the protection issues. He is slated to suit up for Georgia again in the National Championship Game. He has started every game at left tackle for the Dawgs this year after starting the final four games of the regular season in 2021. He has faced elite competition and more than held his own. He could start at right tackle next season for New England or even left tackle if Trent Brown is a cap casualty.

15. Green Bay Packers (8-9) – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Aaron Rodgers needs more weapons. Plain and simple. They invested a good amount of draft capital at receiver this past year with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs and you could still argue for more. However, I think tight end is a clear spot to upgrade here, especially with the top one in this class on the board. Mayer is well-rounded and brings the prototypical size to the table at 6’4″, 250 lbs. His production was elite as far as college tight ends go. He topped 2,000 yards in his career and hauled in 18 touchdown catches. Adding him will improve the running game as well. I really like this move for Green Bay.

16. Washington Commanders (8-9) – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
What should the Commanders do at quarterback? Carson Wentz is as good as gone. Taylor Heinicke has not been consistent enough to win the job. Sam Howell showed a little something against the Cowboys, but not enough to dissuade the Commanders from selecting someone else. Especially if that someone else has the upside of Anthony Richardson. The former Florida quarterback has absurd athleticism and one of the strongest arms we have seen recently. However, he is very raw and will need to improve his passing mechanics and footwork if he is going to succeed at the next level. Washington can rely on Heinicke to bridge the gap until Richardson is ready.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8) – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Mike Tomlin very nearly dragged this team into the playoffs. While he came up short, he showed that the Steelers are closer to competing than we originally thought. Pittsburgh has some clear holes though and with the top three tackles off the board, I think corner is a good move. Christian Gonzalez is a long, rangy corner who bounced back after a rough start to the year and impressed scouts with his play in the Pac-12. They won’t need him to cover for too long either, just long enough for T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith or Cam Heyward to get home.

18. Detroit Lions (9-8) – Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
The Lions defensive makeover continues, this time on the backend with a tall corner. Smith measures at 6’0″ and is coming off a 2nd-team All-SEC season with South Carolina. He has some solid numbers in his career with 6 interceptions and 18 pass breakups. I’m excited to watch more of him in this draft cycle. He could create a very fun tandem with Jeff Okudah in that Detroit secondary. The Lions defense played better down the stretch, but this team would have been in the postseason if it was not giving up 30 or more points per game to open the season.

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NFL Draft Daily: Comparing my Way-Too-Early 2022 Mock Draft to the actual NFL Draft

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NFL , , , , ,

NFL Draft Daily looks at top stories, historical trends, player performances and more all through the lens of the NFL Draft. After all, there are only 353 days until the 2023 NFL Draft. Check back in tomorrow for another entry.

It’s that time of year where we start the very early look at next year’s draft class. We get caught up in the appeal and excitement of what could be. I’m guilty of it. I just published my Way-Too-Early 2023 Mock Draft this past Monday.

However, I wanted to do something a little different. I want to compare my Way-Too-Early mock from last year to the actual draft. I think it is really interesting to compare expectations for teams and players to what actually happened in the past year. Hopefully, there are a few lessons I can learn in the process as well that will help me better identify prospects that are true first-round players.

There are some major takeaways here for sure. One, I thought this quarterback class was going to be good a year ago. Meanwhile, Travon Walker was not even on my radar. Good reminder to everyone that so much can change over the next year as we start to look ahead to 2023.

As a reminder, I did not set the draft order last year. It was the reverse Super Bowl odds at the time from William Hill with strength of schedule used as a tiebreaker. You can check out the mock for reference, but I listed all of the projected picks here as well. Let’s go back in time and take a look at how I did with my projections.

1. Way-too-early prediction: Houston Texans – Spencer Rattler, QB, Oklahoma
What happened to the player: Transferred to South Carolina
Actual selection: Jacksonville Jaguars – Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
Ah yes. May 2021. Back when we thought this was going to be a good quarterback class. Rattler was a Heisman candidate at Oklahoma and seemed poised to become the latest quarterback under Lincoln Riley to go No. 1 overall. Instead, he lost his job midseason to Caleb Williams and ultimately transferred to USC. I did not include him in my way-too-early mock for 2023, so he definitely has a ways to go to rebuild his draft stock. As for the Texans, they ended up picking just a couple spots later, but seem to have their quarterback to develop in Davis Mills.

2. Way-too-early prediction: Detroit Lions – Sam Howell, QB, UNC
What happened to the player: Drafted 144th overall by the Commanders
Actual Selection: Detroit Lions – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
This didn’t pan out too well either. Howell entered the year as one of the top quarterback prospects, but uneven play and a drop in production without his top weapons caused him to tumble all the way to the fifth round. I still think he fell further than he should have, but there is no question he is a bit of a project. That being said, as I talked about on my podcast last week, I think Howell could wind up being the Commanders starter in 2023. Turns out that William Hill was spot on with their odds. Detroit did in fact pick second and they still need a quarterback. It will be a big focus in the 2023 draft for the Lions.

3. Way-too-early prediction: Cincinnati Bengals – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
What happened to the player: Drafted 3rd overall by the Texans
Actual selection: Houston Texans – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Hang on, I’m going to play the lottery real quick. I can’t pat myself on the back too much, but Stingley entered the year as likely the No. 1 overall prospect. At worst, he was No. 2 behind Kayvon Thibodeaux. He was an elite prospect, but injury struggles seemed to be pushing him down draft boards. A fantastic pro day somehow rebuilt his draft stock to the point where he went back to being a top-five pick. The fact that the Bengals were slated to take him third overall is laughable now. Cincinnati reached the Super Bowl behind stellar seasons from Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase and an underrated defense. Cincy could still use some corner help, but obviously was nowhere close to being able to snag Stingley.

4. Way too-early prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
What happened to the player: Drafted 7th overall by the Giants
Actual selection: New York Jets – Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Another one that I feel pretty good about, Neal wound up going just a few spots later to the Giants on draft day. I still maintain that the Jaguars would have done well to take Neal and move on from Cam Robinson, but I digress. Neal delivered on the hype in his 2021 season, making the move to left tackle look fairly easy. As it turns out, Jacksonville was even worse than this, with the Urban Meyer experiment failing miserably. Now we will have to wait and see if the Jags can avoid becoming the first team to ever draft No. 1 overall three years in a row.

5. Way-too-early prediction: New York Jets – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
What happened to the player: Drafted 5th overall by the Giants
Actual selection: New York Giants – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
Right city, right draft slot, just wrong team on this one. The Jets ended up picking one selection earlier, in the end passing on Thibodeaux in favor of Ahmad Gardner. The Giants seem pretty happy with that. Thibodeaux came into the year as one of the best prospects in the draft. In fact, he was the top player at that point. He didn’t quite live up to the expectation, but he put together more than enough good tape to justify going in the top five.

6. Way-too-early prediction: New York Giants – Kedon Slovis, QB, USC
What happened to the player: Transferred to Pittsburgh
Actual selection: Carolina Panthers – Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
To quote myself from 2021: “If the Giants are picking this high, Daniel Jones’ days in New York are likely numbered.” Well after the team declined his fifth-year option, it sure seems like that is the case. However, the Giants opted not to take a quarterback in this class. Slovis wasn’t available anyway, because he didn’t enter the draft. This is a good reminder to not always bet that a player that flashed as a freshman will be able to sustain that. Slovis has come nowhere close to matching his 2019 production. He threw 30 touchdowns that year. He threw 28 in the next two combined. His completion percentage has also dropped each of the past two seasons. He can still turn things around, especially moving to a Pittsburgh program that just lost Kenny Pickett, but he has an uphill climb.

7. Way-too-early prediction: Philadelphia Eagles – Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
What happened to the player: Drafted 23rd overall by the Bills
Actual selection: New York Giants via Chicago Bears – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Give the Eagles some credit for way outperforming this projected draft slot. Philly was one of the surprises of the season as Jalen Hurts and company ended up reaching the playoffs. As it turned out, the Eagles ended up passing on Elam twice in the first round, before he finally landed with Buffalo. I think Elam was a bit overhyped in the offseason, but he was clearly still talented enough to go in the first round.

8. Way-too-early prediction: Las Vegas Raiders – DeMarvin Leal, DL, Texas A&M
What happened to the player: Drafted 84th overall by the Steelers
Actual selection: Atlanta Falcons – Drake London, WR, USC
Reviewing this is I think a microcosm for Texas A&M this past year: they were good, but not as great as we expected. Leal fits that description. He had a solid season, but fell well short of the expectations I had for him entering the year. He ended up going in the third round to the Steelers, which feels like a really good spot for him to develop. Meanwhile, the Raiders, much like the Eagles, shocked everyone by making the playoffs. I still don’t really know how, given how much of a mess the organization was all season.

9. Way-too-early prediction: Carolina Panthers – Zion Nelson, OT, Miami
What happened to the player: Returned to school
Actual selection: Seattle Seahawks via Denver Broncos – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
As it turns out, I had the Panthers targeting the right position here, just the wrong player. Oh and they ended up picking even earlier than this. Zion Nelson’s draft hype never really materialized in high level play. He was forced into the starting lineup as a freshman in 2019 and struggled mightily. He has improved since then, but I am excited to see what Mario Cristobal and his staff can do to aid his development. He definitely made the right call in returning to school.

10. Way-too-early prediction: New York Giants via Chicago Bears – Christian Harris, LB, Alabama
What happened to the player: Drafted 75th overall by the Texans
Actual selection: New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
I remember watching Christian Harris in 2020 and thinking “that guy plays linebacker?” He was built like an early 2000s safety, flying around the field and making plays. Unfortunately, flying around the field is what he does best. Harris struggles reading his keys and positioning himself to make players. He is athletic enough to compensate for that sometimes, but it hinders his game. I had him as a late-second-round prospect by draft day, but he slid into the third. As for the Bears, they wasted most of Justin Fields’ rookie season and might end up wasting his second year as well if they cannot put more talent around him.

11. Way-too-early prediction: Atlanta Falcons – Zach Harrison, EDGE, Ohio State
What happened to the player: Returned to school
Actual selection: New Orleans Saints via Washington Commanders – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
This was an example of assuming that Ohio State’s next five-star edge rusher up was going to continue on the trend of dominating when it was their turn. Nick Bosa did it in 2018. Chase Young did it in 2019. Harrison didn’t quite match those guys. He only posted two sacks in his junior season, showing a lack of true pass rushing polish that his predecessors had. He will have a chance to rewrite the scouting report on him during his senior season, but he will need to step up big time if he hopes to crack the first round. This ended up being pretty close to where the Falcons picked as well and they could still use edge rushing help, along with a lot of other things.

12. Way-too-early prediction: Washington Commanders – Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
What happened to the player: Drafted 74th overall by the Falcons
Actual selection: Detroit Lions via Minnesota Vikings – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Desmond Ridder had some late first-round hype around him heading into the 2021 draft, but decided to return to school. It didn’t quite workout as he would’ve wanted. It wasn’t that Ridder didn’t play well, it’s that NFL teams had a chance to really pick apart his game. He was not accurate enough to warrant going in the first round. He is a bit of a project at this stage, but there is still plenty to like about his game. One pick off for Washington’s original draft slot is pretty impressive by the folks at William Hill. Trading for Carson Wentz meant they didn’t have to get overly aggressive in drafting a quarterback. They wound up taking Sam Howell on Day 3 as well to give them a player to develop.

13. Way-too-early prediction: Minnesota Vikings – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
What happened to the player: Drafted 14th overall by the Ravens
Actual selection: Philadelphia Eagles via Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns – Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia
I ended up being just one pick off from where Hamilton was ultimately drafted. The Notre Dame safety slid to the Ravens after not running well at the combine. I was probably a bit lower on him than most in the early stages last season just because I am skeptical of taking safeties too high. Still it was a bit of a surprise to see him fall to the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Vikings were also just one slot off from their original selection before trading out with the Lions.

14. Way-too-early prediction: Arizona Cardinals – Drake Jackson, EDGE, USC
What happened to the player: Drafted 61st overall by the 49ers
Actual selection: Baltimore Ravens – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Arizona still struggled down the stretch, but got over the hump and made it to the postseason. The Cardinals got bounced in the first round, but it was progress. On the other hand Jackson entered the year with the expectation that he would take the next step in his development during a full season. He posted 11.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks as a freshman, but never quite matched those numbers again. He projects well as a situational rusher for the 49ers.

15. Way-too-early prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
What happened to the player: Drafted 9th overall by the Seahawks
Actual selection: Houston Texans via Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins – Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M
I ended up being six spots off where Cross ended up being selected. I think this would’ve been better value for him, as I didn’t quite have him in my top 10. Still, Cross ended up being one of the most experienced pass blockers to ever come out of the college ranks. He still has some fine-tuning in that department and is a relative unknown as a run blocker, but he checks every box from a physical perspective. On the Steelers’ side of things, they probably could have used some reinforcements along the offensive line. They outperformed expectations and actually reached the postseason.

16. Way-too-early prediction: Los Angeles Chargers – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
What happened to the player: Drafted 11th overall by the Saints
Actual selection: Washington Commanders via New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts – Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Well a receiver did end up going with the 16th overall pick. I just chose the wrong Big Ten school. I also find it hard to believe that this is the first receiver I had projected to come off the board. Not because Olave was undeserving, but because this ended up being a really good receiver class. Anyway, Olave ended up going five picks earlier as the third receiver to be selected. I’m sure Chargers fans would have loved him, but they never got the chance.

17. Way-too-early prediction: Tennessee Titans – George Pickens, WR, Georgia
What happened to the player: Drafted 52nd overall by the Steelers
Actual selection: Los Angeles Chargers – Zion Johnson, OL, Boston College
This one was undoubtedly all about projection. Pickens had just undergone ACL surgery when I wrote my way-too-early predictions for 2022. I assumed that his upside and physical attributes would be enough to keep him in the first round. Not quite as he went 35 selections later, so I guess I was about a round off on him. The Titans did end up drafting a receiver, but it was to replace A.J. Brown, not add around him like I had anticipated.

18. Way-too-early prediction: New England Patriots – Josh Jobe, CB, Alabama
What happened to the player: Signed as an undrafted free agent with the Eagles
Actual selection: Tennessee Titans via Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Woof this one was bad. Jobe was expected to be the next great Alabama corner, but he ended up going undrafted. It’s hard for me to understand exactly why he fell that far. He has measurables to play outside corner in the NFL, even if he did struggle a bit during his senior year. Not running at the combine makes me believe that there were some concerns about his speed and quickness. Still, most expected him to go in the fourth round. It was definitely a bit of a shock no one took a chance on him. Looking at the Patriots, they did need cornerback help and they still could probably use a bit more.

19. Way-too-early prediction: Philadelphia Eagles via Miami Dolphins – Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia
What happened to the player: Drafted 13th overall by the Eagles
Actual selection: New Orleans Saints via Philadelphia Eagles – Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
I wish I could’ve bet on this one way back then. Not that I would have because why on Earth would I have ever believed I would get this right, but the odds for Jordan Davis being selected by the Eagles a year later likely would have been incredible, assuming any sportsbook would have been willing to give them to me. Philly traded up a couple spots on draft day to land him. He will be the long-term replacement for Fletcher Cox. The Eagles did originally own the 19th pick, but flipped it to the Saints as part of a pre draft trade. Meanwhile, the Dolphins, who were expected to make the playoffs this past year, struggled out of the gate and never fully recovered.

20. Way-too-early prediction: Dallas Cowboys – Sevyn Banks, CB, Ohio State
What happened to the player: Transferred to LSU
Actual selection: Pittsburgh Steelers – Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
This was a swing and a miss. I actually heard from a bunch of Buckeye fans immediately after publishing last year that Sevyn Banks was being overhyped. Once I dove a little deeper into the film, I realized they were right. I got caught up in scouting the helmet, not the player on this one. I wasn’t alone. Banks was a popular inclusion in way-too-early mocks this time last year. He only played four games in 2021 and will now attempt to rebuild his draft stock at LSU. For the Cowboys, this was not too far off from where they ended up finishing even playing in the weakest division in the league.

21. Way-too-early prediction: New Orleans Saints – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
What happened to the player: Drafted 10th overall by the Jets
Actual selection: Kansas City Chiefs via New England Patriots – Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
So the Saints did wind up selecting a first-round receiver from Ohio State. I just didn’t have them taking the right one. Not that Wilson was even on the board when New Orleans ultimately picked at No. 11. He put together a fantastic junior season and pushed himself into the top ten. Personally, I’m thrilled he landed with the Jets. As far as expectations for the Saints, this was not too far off. They came close to the playoffs despite dealing with major injuries across their roster.

22. Way-too-early prediction: Indianapolis Colts – Thayer Munford, OT, Ohio State
What happened to the player: Drafted 238th overall by the Raiders
Actual selection: Green Bay Packers via Las Vegas Raiders – Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
In retrospect, this pick should have belonged to the Eagles. I fully expected Carson Wentz to meet the requirements to convey the Colts’ first-round pick. Simply an oversight on my part. Let’s talk about Indy though, because it definitely needed a new left tackle. The Colts brought in Eric Fisher as a stop-gap solution, and more recently drafted Bernhard Raimann to compete for the starting spot. As it turns out, Munford was not a great choice to fill that void. He ended up kicking inside to play guard during his senior season and fell to the seventh round. His versatility is undervalued and I think he will stick around the league for a while.

23. Way-too-early prediction: New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks – Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M
What happened to the player: Drafted 15th overall by the Texans
Actual selection: Buffalo Bills via Baltimore Ravens and Arizona Cardinals – Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
What a fall for the Seahawks. Seattle suffered through a lost season with Russell Wilson missing time due to injury only to ultimately trade him to the Broncos. Their own first-round pick, which belonged to the Jets as part of the Jamal Adams trade, became the 10th selection. Let’s just say I’m not complaining as a Jets fan. New York could have used a player like Green, but it is hard to fault Joe Douglas for how he handled the draft. The offensive lineman from Texas A&M ended up being gone by this point anyway.

24. Way-too-early prediction: Denver Broncos – Perrion Winfrey, DL, Oklahoma
What happened to the player: Drafted 108th overall by the Browns
Actual selection: Dallas Cowboys – Tyler Smith, OL, Tulsa
I was shocked by this in 2021 and I still can’t believe it now. William Hill had the Broncos at 20-1 odds to win the Super Bowl this time last year. That makes more sense with Russell Wilson at quarterback, but Drew Lock? Not really sure what happened there. Either way, Denver did need some help along the front seven and Winfrey seemed to be an ascending player. He actually did put together a much more impressive senior campaign with 11 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks but ended up sliding all the way to the fourth round. He could wind up being a very productive player in Cleveland.

25. Way-too-early prediction: Cleveland Browns – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
What happened to the player: Drafted 2nd overall by the Lions
Actual selection: Baltimore Ravens via Buffalo Bills – Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Speaking of the Browns, this is where they were expected to pick after a sensational 2020 season. That fell apart quickly as Baker Mayfield got hurt and the team seemingly never recovered. Then there is Hutchinson, who ended up soaring up draft boards thanks to a phenomenal senior season. He finished as the runner up for the Heisman and will now get to play the role of hometown hero with the Lions.

26. Way-too-early prediction: Green Bay Packers – John Metchie, WR, Alabama
What happened to the player: Drafted 44th overall by the Texans
Actual selection: New York Jets via Tennessee Titans – Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State
I should really know better by now. The Packers don’t draft receivers in the first round! In their defense, I think that was the right call this year after six of them went in the top 18 picks. I wonder if John Metchie might have worked his way into the first round had he not torn his ACL in the SEC title game against Georgia. He became Bryce Young’s go-to receiver this past season, catching 96 passes for over 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns. His speed is legitimate as well. The Texans might end up with a steal in the second round.

27. Way-too-early prediction: Baltimore Ravens – Cade Mays, G, Tennessee
What happened to the player: Drafted 199th overall by the Panthers
Actual selection: Jacksonville Jaguars via Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Injuries derailed the Ravens season, which was actually my rationale for mocking them to take Mays before the year even happened. Keeping Lamar Jackson healthy will be priority number one for Baltimore and likely a large part of the thinking into drafting Tyler Linderbaum in the first round. Mays ended up sliding all the way to the sixth round. He is a former five star recruit with experience at just about every position on the offensive line. I was definitely a bit too high on him entering the year, but he should have gone earlier than the sixth round in my opinion.

28. Way-too-early prediction: Detroit Lions via Los Angeles Rams – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
What happened to the player: Drafted 18th overall by the Titans
Actual selection: Green Bay Packers – Devonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia
There have been a few prospects that I projected to make the jump in 2021 that fell short of expectations. That was not the case with Burks. He took a huge step forward with over 1,200 yards from scrimmage and 15 total touchdowns in a fantastic campaign. He was a bit inconsistent and posted some questionable times at the combine, but clearly the Titans felt like he was going to be a worthy replacement for A.J. Brown. Looking at who this pick originally belonged to, William Hill was pretty close with the Rams. Matt Stafford and Von Miller just pushed them over the top.

29. Way-too-early prediction: Miami Dolphins via San Francisco 49ers – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
What happened to the player: Drafted 27th overall by the Jaguars
Actual selection: New England Patriots via Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers – Cole Stange, G, Chattanooga
Well William Hill was spot on for this one. This ended up being the 49ers pick, even if it did change hands several times before the selection was ever made. Lloyd was one of my favorite prospects heading into the 2022 draft cycle. That didn’t change at all and it turns out I just missed out on where he would go in the first round. I think there are big things to come from him in Jacksonville.

30. Way-too-early prediction: Buffalo Bills – Jalen Wydermyer, TE, Texas A&M
What happened to the player: Signed as an undrafted free agent with the Bills
Actual selection: Kansas City Chiefs – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
My second prediction that went horribly wrong. Wydermyer joins Josh Jobe among my first-round hopefuls that went undrafted. Wydermyer looked like the latest athlete to learn how to play tight end. His tape showed quickness and burst that made him seem like a player just scratching the surface of his potential. Then he actually went on to put up worse numbers in 2021 despite having two more games. He skipped running at the combine and then posted some horrible times at his pro day. I don’t exactly know what to make of him at this point, but this was a huge miss for me. Ironically, he did sign with the Bills.

31. Way-too-early prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
What happened to the player: Drafted 30th overall by the Chiefs
Actual selection: Cincinnati Bengals – Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
Another one where I was off by just one pick. Karlaftis enters the draft much like he entered his final college season, a developing player who has been unable to replicate his freshman year success. He managed to stay healthy in 2021, but his production did not bounce back all the way to his 2019 campaign. Still, he is an enticing prospect with his burst off the line and ability to disrupt plays. He needs to become a bit more disciplined in the run game, but there is clear upside. Tampa always loves grabbing edge rushers to develop. I think Karlaftis would have been a good fit there, but the Bucs traded out of the first round and he was gone by the time they were up again.

32. Way-too-early prediction: Kansas City Chiefs – Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
What happened to the player: Drafted 42nd overall by the Vikings
Actual selection: Minnesota Vikings via Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams – Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
I still wonder if Booth had been healthy enough to run at the combine if he would have pushed his way into the first round. He had a strong career at Clemson and did not go much later than this when the draft actually rolled around. Minnesota will be hoping he can finally put an end to the revolving door they have had at cornerback. The Chiefs came up just short of a third straight trip to the Super Bowl, blowing a lead that prompted them to trade up for some cornerback help in Trent McDuffie.

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