Free Agency

Landing spots for top NBA free agents

Chris McGlynn Basketball, Free Agency, NBA , , , , ,

Just 24 hours. That’s all that remains between now and the start of NBA free agency. It seems that every year now serves up a bunch of all stars hitting the open market. Part of that is just how the NBA is structured. Here is where a number of this year’s top players should end up when free agency is all said and done.

Some thoughts before I begin. I really like Boston landing Tobias Harris. He would be a great young piece for the Celtics to include as they continue to rebuild. Paul Millsap, Kawhi Leonard and Enes Kanter should all stay with their current teams. As should DeAndre Jordan and Tyson Chandler. Now to the really big names.

Kevin_Love_CavsKevin Love
2014 team: Cleveland Cavaliers
2015 team: Indiana Pacers
I have talked about this before. Love did not f    it into the Cleveland offense. He struggled as he became solely a jump shooter. He still performed decently well given the circumstances. He opted out of his deal to give the Cavs some financial flexibility and I think he will return to Cleveland. However, I think he should head to Indiana. David West just opted out of his contract and the Pacers are looking to unload Roy Hibbert. Sounds like they are going to need a lot more rebounding going forward. Love provides that plus tons of scoring potential for a team that finished 24th in points per game a year ago. I like Love playing with a great setup man in George Hill and a guy who can thrive off the ball in Paul George. This could be a good step in Indiana returning to the playoffs.

Jimmy Butler
2014 team: Chicago BullsBulls during_a_timeout
2015 team: Dallas Mavericks
Butler is going to demand a max deal from whoever signs him, which makes a return to the Bulls difficult due to their financial constraints. He could go to Indiana if they don’t land Love and continue to thrive in a defensive system. The best place for him though would be Dallas. Butler would land with a contender out west in desperate need of a defensive injection. You can bet that Rajon Rondo and Monta Ellis are not coming back next season so that should provide the financial flexibility needed to sign him. Butler would add a lockdown defender to a team that allowed the sixth most point per game a season ago. The 25-year old would be a much needed piece to help Dallas push toward another title with Nowitzki still in town.

Dwyane_WadeDwyane Wade
2014 team: Miami Heat
2015 team: Anyone but Miami (Atlanta Hawks)
Team basketball has been what Dwayne has been about for the last dozen years and what Atlanta put into practice last season. Miami isn’t willing to pay Wade for his services but you can bet Atlanta would love to nab the aging superstar. Paying Wade shouldn’t be too much of a problem with Demarre Carroll and Elton Brand likely not coming back. The Hawks have a ton of depth meaning Wade could play only 28 minutes a game and the team would not tank. Keeping Wade healthy will be easy and Atlanta would have a proven scorer to turn to when at clutch time in the playoffs. The whole Cleveland series seemed to be the Hawks looking for someone to step up. Wade has no problem doing that and could make Atlanta the favorite in the east next season.

LaMarcus_AldridgeLaMarcus Aldridge
2014 team: Portland Trailblazers
2015 team: Portland Trailblazers
At 29-years old, Aldridge isn’t getting any younger. Obviously, he still has some good years left in him but the clock is ticking. That would make you think he would try to bolt to another team poised for a title run. The best thing though would be to stay in Portland. Damian Lillard is still improving and if Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews return on similar deals to last year this team could be in a good position to compete again in the west. Obviously, this isn’t as fun as seeing Aldridge go to the Lakers, the Knicks or even the Spurs but it makes a lot of sense for Aldridge and the Trailblazers. They just brought in some really good depth in Mason Plumlee and Pat Connaughton. Give this core a year or two and they could one of the top teams in the rugged west.

Marc GasolMarc_Gasol
2014 team: Memphis Grizzlies
2015 team: Milwaukee Bucks
Michael Carter-Williams, O.J. Mayo, Giannis Antetokoumpo, Jabari Parker and Marc Gasol. That would be quite the starting lineup. Gasol is one of, if not the best passing big in the game right now. He averages almost four assists per night and should ignite Milwaukee’s offense. This team made the playoffs as the sixth seed without Parker last season. Bring in Gasol to play with a healthy Parker and suddenly the frontcourt for the Bucks looks drastically better. This move makes a lot of sense too with Larry Sanders leaving in the middle of last season. Zaza Pachulia is nothing special, Gasol is. With a ton of depth on the roster already, the Bucks could become a contender in the east within a year or two with Gasol as the centerpiece.

Salvaging the Wolves

Chris McGlynn Basketball, Draft, Free Agency, NBA , , ,

The Minnesota Timberwolves are bad. That’s it. Plain and simple. This team is currently tied with the hapless Knicks for the worst record in the NBA with just two games to go in the season. Obviously, the Timberwolves do not have much left to play for this season. That doesn’t mean that these games don’t mean something for the players. In a lot of ways, this is a tryout to see who might be on the team next year. It also could help the Minnesota front office figure out what to do with some of the veterans on the team. Guys like Ricky Rubio, Nikola Peckovic and Kevin Martin have all had good runs with the team but none of them have really lived up to the money they are paid. With some of the guys they have rising through the ranks, it might be time for the Wolves to start looking elsewhere.

Kevin_Martin

Kevin Martin, Shooting Guard
Age: 32
Decision: Sell
Kevin Martin has shown the ability to light up the scoreboard and be a great offensive piece for Minnesota. However, with his age and overall ineffectiveness shooting the basketball, his value significantly drops for this rebuilding team. Martin has shot only 42.3 percent from the field this season. He also provides little when it comes to assists and rebounds on a night-to-night basis. The other major concern for Martin is his health. He only has appeared in 38 games this year, marking the fifth time in his career that Martin has been unable to play in more than 51 games. He simply is not a player Minnesota can consistently rely on. He should be moved, maybe in a deal with the next player on this list.

Ricky_Rubio

Ricky Rubio, Point Guard
Age: 24
Decision: Sell
Despite being one of the most promising point guards when he entered the league four years ago, Ricky Rubio has never really been able to convert the potential into talent. Entering his fourth year in the NBA, Rubio showed signs of being ready to take a big step. Instead, he was injured once again and has spent another injury-riddled season mostly on the bench. The Timberwolves are running out of time to wait on him to develop as well. In his only season where he played a full slate of games, Rubio failed to average more than ten points per game and shot a mediocre 38 percent from the field. And then here’s a scary stat, that was a career-high for Rubio when it comes to shooting percentage. Meanwhile, rookie point guard Zach LaVine has caught fire recently. The athletic freak has averaged 19 points, 5 assists and 5 rebounds on 44.5 percent shooting over the past 10 games. It looks like Minnesota might already have Rubio’s replacement in house.

Nikola_Pekovic

Nikola Pekovic, Center
Age: 29
Decision: Sell
While he might be one of their best offensive assets but with one of the top picks in this year’s draft, the Timberwolves can replace Nikola Pekovic. Through five years in the NBA, Pekovic has never played more than 65 games in one season. He shot a career worst 42.4 percent from the field and his season ended very early due to an Achilles injury. The Wolves also owe Pekovic roughly $12 million each of the next three seasons. That’s a lot to be paying for a player who is not on the court very often. He also saw his scoring drop to the lowest since his rookie year and his rebounding totals dip to the lowest since 2011. Overall, Pek is not really improving at this point in his career. With either Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns likely set to wear a Timberwolves jersey next season, Pekovic could be expendable.

Kevin Garnett

Kevin Garnett, Power Forward
Age: 38
Decision: Keep
Even though he is going to be 39 years old next season, Kevin Garnett provides some value for this young Timberwolves team. He doesn’t do a ton on the court anymore when it comes to converting on the court but when he does play, Garnett has been fairly effective. He is more suited as a sixth man or role player next year but after shooting 58 percent from the floor and providing almost eight points per game in limited minutes since returning to Minnesota, he has made a difference. Plus, his veteran leadership and championship experience are invaluable. Garnett can bring a bit of fire to this team and improve them from a mental aspect. He might not be worth the $12 million price tag he has at the moment, but bringing him back would be a smart move.

The Timberwolves are going to look like a very different team next year pretty much no matter what. Gary Neal and Garnett are set to be free agents and if Chase Budinger opts out this club would have some holes to fix. With what is shaping up to be a fairly strong draft class, trading away some of the veterans for a couple of middle of the order draft picks could be a great way for Minnesota to restart and rebuild.

Some Love lost in Cleveland

Chris McGlynn Basketball, Free Agency, NBA , , , , ,

The Cleveland Cavaliers have returned to being one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this year with LeBron James’ return home. However, this team has its fair share of deficiencies, starting with how players fit together on the floor. It is no secret that Kevin Love has had a tough year. He has been a decent contributor but not at the level that the Cavs thought he would play when they acquired him last summer.

Love is posting career lows as a starter in attempts per game and makes per game this year. His shooting percentage is at its worst mark in a season where Love has started at least 20 games. His rebound average is the lowest it has been since his rookie year. On top of all of that, Love’s scoring has dipped by almost ten points this season. He clearly does not fit with the Cavaliers. Realistically, Love will likely leave Cleveland at the end of the season with his contract set to expire. Here are the best places that Love could land next offseason.

Minnesota Timberwolves: This would be the icing on the cake for the T-Wolves. Getting Love back and hanging on to Wiggins. Essentially, the Cavaliers would have traded for the 3-time All-star in exchange for clearing Anthony Bennett of the books. This is not the most likely scenario, as Minnesota will probably be looking elsewhere to spend their money. With a ton of youth, the Wolves could look to sign a veteran power forward instead. Either way, the Wolves have a need at the position and Love would certainly fit their system. However, Minnesota ranks as the worst defensive team in the league. Love, who is primarily an offense first player, would be benefit from playing elsewhere.

New Orleans Pelicans: With Omar Asik’s contract about to expire, he could become expendable. Enter Love and suddenly, the Pelicans have one of the best duos in basketball in their frontcourt. Anthony Davis and Love teamed up together could be scary. Love would also assuredly benefit from Davis’ shot blocking presence, negated much of his poor play defensively. Unfortunately, Love could run into the same problem that he has in Cleveland. There would be a lot of mouths to feed in New Orleans with Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, Jrue Holiday, Davis and Love all wanting high volume touches.

Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks are one of the best defensive squads in basketball and with Larry Sanders unlikely to return, the Bucks could use a new body in their frontcourt. Love’s addition to Milwaukee could pose some problems with Jabari Parker’s return next season and Giannis Antetokounmpo already stationed at small forward. Love would be able to take over as a lead scorer on this team though as the Bucks have zero front court players scoring more than ten points per game. Plus, with Milwaukee ranking at 25th in rebounds per night, adding Love would be a welcome addition.

Indiana Pacers: The odds that this one happens might be the highest of any team. It makes a lot of sense to me. Love is a great scorer and can play alongside one other top scorer in Paul George. He would join a team that is one of the best defensively in the league, which is a perfect fit for Love. On top of that, he would play alongside a great rim protector in Roy Hibbert and an excellent distributor in George Hill. And no one else on the Pacers requires a ton of touches except for George, which creates a nice opening for Love to come in and be an elite scorer. This moves when it is broken down makes a ton of sense and would propel Indiana into the conversation of best team in the East if George returns the same.

Love might return to Cleveland because he wants a shot at a championship but he would be smart to walk away. This is not the best spot for him and he would benefit tremendously playing elsewhere. It will be an interesting year in free agency and teams would likely be willing to spend a year in biting the bullet of the luxury tax knowing that the 2016 offseason will provide a massive boost to the cap. Getting a top offense weapon like Love in a weaker offseason will be a smart move for an offensive needy team. Now it just remains to be seen who will make a run for the former UCLA product.

Processing the NFL’s crazy 24 hours

Chris McGlynn Football, Free Agency, NFL , , , , ,

Everyone new that the start of the new league year was sure to bring some fireworks. I don’t think anyone saw that coming though. We are only a little over 24 hours into the 2015 NFL league year and the chaos is only now beginning to subside. We saw the Seahawks land the highest paid tight end in history. Darrelle Revis rejoined his old team for a small fortune. The Eagles continued to wheel and deal under Chip Kelly. Even Ryan Fitzpatrick changed teams (wait that happens pretty much every offseason). Time to take a second look at some of the teams involved in the fray after the dust has started to settle.

Winners:
This does not mean these teams won free agency, which, according to Michael Schottey of Bleacher Report, may not really matter. Either way, these are the teams who are in the best shape following the first day of signings.

Seattle Seahawks: No matter what you give up, getting arguably the best tight end in the NFL is a good deal. The Seahawks did give up All-Pro center Max Unger and their first round pick, but centers tend to be easier to replace than tight ends and with an historically week tight end class scheduled to hit the NFL next year, this was a good move. The Seahawks really need to work to rebuild that offensive line as both Unger and Carpenter are in new homes heading into next year. Still, for the defending NFC champions, this makes Russell Wilson even more deadly. Bringing in Cary Williams as a nickel corner doesn’t hurt either.

New York Jets: It is hard to look at the Jets and not think that this team looks infinitely better than it did on Sunday. The Jets have shelled out a lot of picks and money to do so but New York has made major strides in its rebuilding process. The secondary immediately becomes one of the best in the league signing Revis and Buster Skrine. The offense looks a lot better with the addition of Brandon Marshall. James Carpenter could prove to be an asset as well. The Jets were also smart to release Percy Harvin rather than give him the $10.5 million he was due. Bringing in Ryan Fitzpatrick is an upgrade over Geno Smith, especially under Chan Gailey. There is still more work to be done but the change is drastic.

St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford and his mega contract is gone. In return, the Rams now have Nick Foles suiting up. Both of these players are coming off of injuries but you would have to imagine that Foles is in much better shape. Bradford tore his ACL for the second straight season while Foles broke his collarbone. The Rams also managed to avoid giving up anything more than a fourth round pick this year. They might potentially lose a second rounder next year if Foles meets certain criteria but as a Rams fan, I am much happier having Foles as my prospective starter.

Losers

Philadelphia Eagles: On one hand, I look at the Eagles defense and I am impressed with how much better it looks now. Signing Byron Maxwell, Walter Thurmond and trading for Kiko Alonso will do that for you. However, I flip to the offensive side of the ball and I cringe. The Eagles are now without their starting quarterback, running back or leading receiver from a season ago. Pair that with Todd Herremanns leaving for Indianapolis and the Eagles have a lot of holes to fill. Signing Ryan Matthews could be the answer at running back but he is very injury prone, as is new quarterback Sam Bradford. Chip Kelly has taken the couple of questions surrounding Philadelphia and multiplied them ten-fold.

Denver Broncos: The Broncos did not make any splash signings and no one really expected them too. But the players they let walk away really hurt. Denver lost starting tackle Orlando Franklin to the division rival Chargers. Terrance Knighton also informed the Broncos that he would not be returning next year. Couple those two departures with Julius Thomas signing with Jacksonville and suddenly the Broncos are down three starters from 2014. With Nate Irving and Rahim Moore still unsigned, the Broncos could lose a few more starters before free agency is all said and done.

Indianapolis Colts: Indy has spent a combine total of $64.2 million on four players. The average age of those four players is roughly 32. These players all have big names but none of them are likely to make the impact the Colts are paying for. Andre Johnson is not going to return to Pro Bowl form any time soon. Neither is Frank Gore. Kendall Langford is a nice addition to the defensive line but pairing Trent Cole across from Rasheed Mathis give the Colts one of the oldest starting outside linebacker duos. With better players available, the Colts could have found a way to spend this money a little more wisely.

Free agency is far from over but after the first day or so of player signings, mixed with all of the crazy trades, this how the league appears to be trending. Some other things to note would if Oakland lands DeMarco Murray, the free agent class suddenly looks much better. New England will once again sit out on over spending for free agents, but don’t be surprised to see a trade involving the Patriots to surface. Lastly, the Saints have actually set themselves up fairly well for the coming future but their moves in the coming days will dictate whether or not this can continue to be a successful offseason. I will definitely be back with more in the coming days as more agents begin to sign.

Falling 49ers

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, Free Agency, NFL

San Francisco seemed to have a revelation on its hands two years ago. At this time in 2013, the 49ers were about a month removed from a Super Bowl loss to the Baltimore Ravens. However, it was the team’s first trip to the NFL Title game since Steve Young was under center back in 1994. The Niners seemed set for years to come with a young gunslinger with incredible speed running the show in Colin Kaepernick. He was supported by a dominant running game led by Frank Gore and had Pro Bowl caliber receivers in Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree. He had a top-tier offensive line in front of him as well. San Francisco’s defense ranked as the best in the business, with talent at all three levels. Fast forward these past two years to now and everything is falling apart. It is time for this Bay Area team to begin a rebuild.

The 49ers are seeing the foundation of the team crumble before their eyes. Aging running back Frank Gore is headed to Philadelphia. Michael Crabtree is searching for a new club to sign with. All-Pro guard Mike Iupati is entertaining other offers. Defensive stalwarts Justin Smith and Patrick Willis both announced their retirements. Oh and Jim Harbaugh is in Ann Arbor. This team is going through an extreme makeover right now and it will likely continue in the coming days as free agency opens. The 49ers have some major holes to fill and will not be able to in just one offseason.

Let’s start with Gore’s departure. The blow is lessened by his already declining play last year and the presence of Carlos Hyde but still this changes the dynamic of San Francisco’s running game. Neither Gore nor Hyde were transcendent in 2014 but together they formed a pretty good backfield tandem. Now Hyde is left to pick up the slack and it is unclear if he has what it takes to do that. Hyde is a downhill runner, much like Gore, who will drag a defender or two along with him but he is very limited as a pass catcher. Gore excelled in the pass game, meaning that the Niners will need to find a way to replace that element of their offense.

Crabtree’s imminent move out of San Francisco leaves the 49ers with very little talent at wideout. While he was not as productive this past seasons as he was in years past, Crabtree still provided Kaepernick with a big target. Boldin is still a good receiver, but as he will turn 35 this October, he is past his prime. The Niners have been searching for new talent at wide receiver for years now, adding players such as A.J. Jenkins, Brandon Lloyd and Quinton Patton in recent years, but none has turned into a solid contributor.

Iupati has been an integral part of San Francisco’s dominant ground attack in the past few seasons. If he leaves, the 49ers will be scrambling to find a replacement. Already, cracks have started to show in the offensive line, as they allowed the third highest number of sacks last season with 52. The two teams who allowed more are Jacksonville and Washington and the team that allowed the same amount was Tampa Bay. No, matter how you look at it, that is not good company to have.

For Smith and Willis, the impact will be felt fairly quickly but will not be as severe as many fear. This 49ers defense was outstanding last season ranking fifth overall in yards per game allowed and tenth in points conceded per game. Willis missed a lot of time last year due to injury and Smith saw his numbers slip. Their leadership will be sorely missed but San Francisco will recover well. Chris Borland is already in place to fill the void of Willis and with over $21 million in cap space, San Francisco could make a run at top defensive ends in free agency like Greg Hardy or B.J. Raji.

The 49ers have some work to do defensively but with most of the defense staying intact, offense will be the priority. The 49ers will still be competitive this year but look for the team to try to find new ways to utilize Kaepernick. They will also add a veteran running back, potentially C.J. Spiller or Ryan Matthews on short, “prove it” deals. The draft will be very important as the Niners are sure look to add a top end receiver and help along the offensive line. This team will still be competing for a playoff spot come December next season, but with how tough the NFC is, it will be a year or two before the cherry red and gold make it back to the postseason. Sure some rebuilding is needed, but much of the foundation can still stay the same.