NFL

NFL invents new way to discover talent

Chris McGlynn Football, Free Agency, NFL

Earlier this week the NFL announced a new addition to the offseason. The league has decided to add a combine that will evaluate veteran players who are free agents looking for a new team. The veteran combine would mirror that of the rookie one held for prospects entering the NFL draft. As far as I am aware, this was something the NFL had just decided to do on its own; there was not any outside pressure involved or fans calling for this to happen. I sincerely think this is an excellent idea that the NFL has proposed and I am looking forward to seeing how the whole process plays out.

This combine only makes too much sense. This gives the perfect opportunity for players aging player to show that they’ve still got it, injured stars to show that they have recovered or for younger, unheralded guys to demonstrate their new skill acquisition. For teams, it gives them some concrete numbers to work with, allowing them to make much better informed decisions. It is also a new negotiating tool for teams to look at when determining a player’s value. The NFL wins as well because not only is it giving its players a brand new opportunity, which should help with relations to the NFLPA. This will also become a largely commercial event where various companies will vie for the right to sponsor it and boost the popularity of the NFL Network, which is likely where this event will air on television. I see this being a great decision all the way around where it seems like everyone gets something out of it.

The structure of the event is not how you might expect it to be. The combine will not start until a week after free agency begins meaning that plenty of the top players will have already signed new contracts. That means the target group for this combine is the mid-level and low-level free agents who aren’t garnering tons of media attention. There are no invites to the combine either. Unlike, the rookie combine, you can simply sign up for the veteran one, for a $400 fee, but still anyone can theoretically sign up. This levels the playing field for a lot of unheard of free agents who might not be in line to receive an invite. It does not guarantee any of these players a contract but it could at least put them on teams’ radars. They could easily be cut only weeks later in favor of some young blood in the draft but at least they will have a chance to impress and stick. For some of these players, that is all they need.

I think this is a great innovation for the NFL. For crazed football fans, very much like myself, if becomes another event we can track and obsess over while we wait for football to return in August. It shows that the NFL is aware that it still has room to improve every aspect of the league. It does not solely focus on the gameplay. I am interested to see what players show up, dazzle the league on a new stage, and make a name for himself with blazing speed, unparalleled strength or freakish athleticism. All of those will be on display when the league brings together a collection of players who are being given another chance to prove themselves. These guys will not get too many chances after this one so be sure that they are going to everything they can to make this count. Now, we as the fans just get to sit back and wait for the sparks to fly and the fun to begin.

Championship Sunday picks

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , ,

The divisional round of the 2015 playoffs went just about according to plan. All of the top seeds coming off their byes won, except Denver. So now, we have a rematch of the first game of the season, this time with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. The other game features one quarterback trying to prove he is worth his high draft spot, the other is trying to cement his spot as the greatest quarterback in history. It is the final four in the NFL and now it is time to breakdown who is heading to Arizona and who is heading home.

Green Bay will travel to Seattle this weekend where Russell Wilson and the Seahawks will host Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in a grudge match. The Seahawks once again have home field advantage in this game as they did in Week 1 against the Pack. Seattle rolled through Green Bay that time around, thrashing the Packers 36-16. The Packs’ rushing attack sputtered against the Seahawks run defense back in September, managing a meager 80 yards on the ground on 21 attempts and Marshawn Lynch rumbled for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns in that match up. Seattle will once again look to win the battle in the trenches and force an apparently hobbled Aaron Rodgers to make all of the plays. One major hit to the Seahawks is the absence of Percy Harvin in this game. Seattle’s offense has adjusted and compensated since he has left but in that first meeting he accounted for 100 yards of offense and caught every pass thrown his way. He clearly gave the Packers some problems and he will not be able to pose any of those now from his couch in New Jersey. Another new factor is Packers’ rookie Devonte Adams arrival as a huge threat. His 7-catch 117-yard performance, which included a touchdown, will be something Pete Carroll and his staff factor into today’s game plan. This game also features likely the best passing offense in the league against arguably the best secondary in the NFL. The scary thing for the Packers is that the Seahawks’ defense has actually gotten better down the stretch of the season. Seattle hasn’t allowed more than 17 points to a team since Week 11 against Kansas City. When all is said and done though, I think the Packers will break that streak. Between Rodgers, Adams, Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, not to mention anyone of a number of role players, this offense can score. I would not be surprised to see Green Bay spread out the Seattle defense and then find their matchups to exploit. Wilson and Lynch will power this team for a while on the ground but in the end, a lack of a prominent passing game will be the Seahawks downfall. Packers hang on 27-24.

Meanwhile, Andrew Luck will be looking to show that last week was not a fluke and that he has officially arrived in the NFL if he can carry the Colts to their first Super Bowl appearance since 2009 against the future Hall of Famer in Tom Brady. If Brady wins, he will start the most Super Bowls by a player ever. Since 2004, this will mark the sixth time the Patriots meet the Colts in the playoffs. The rivalry is unparalleled to any other in the NFL as these two teams have so much hate for each other. Even if the Manning-Brady rivalry no longer exists between these two teams, Luck is more than up to the task of carrying on the legacy. You always think these games could go either way or that these two should be evenly matched but in reality, Brady has had Indy’s number. In his career, the former Michigan man is 12-4 against the Colts. These two teams played earlier this season and New England once again displayed their dominance over Indianapolis in a 42-20 romp. The key in that game was Jonas Gray’s 200 plus yards rushing and 4 touchdowns. Since that game, Gray has not carried the ball more than 12 carries or registered 65 yards in a game. Indianapolis was also unable to find any sort of ground game in that matchup. Indy struggled its way to 19 yards on 16 carries that night. However, the Colts managed 99 yards against a top-flight Denver defense last weekend. If Indy can find a way to get a rushing attack rolling, they could be scary and pose a real threat to New England. The reality is though that New England will not let that be possible. The strength of the Patriots defense is their secondary. Scoring early will mean that the option to run the ball will be almost out of the question for Indy. Luck is a great young quarterback but it is not enough to overcome New England’s multifaceted offense. Pats come away with a win in this one 34-24.

Those are my Super Bowl picks. Green Bay will clash with New England out in the desert two weeks from today in what should be an amazing battle of two great quarterbacks and offensive assets galore. Both of these games this weekend should be exciting but in the end, the two savvy, veteran signal callers will come out on top of the class of 2012’s finest. My players of the week: Randall Cobb for Green Bay and Brandon Browner for New England. Should be a great day of football. Let me know where I went wrong or if you think these games are going to end differently.

Is it time for Peyton to hang ’em up?

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL ,

He looked battered. He looked beaten. He looked broken. That is the best way to describe Peyton Manning as he departed from the field on Sunday night. The 38-year old veteran had lost for the thirteenth time in the playoffs, an NFL record. Every loss, especially a playoff loss, has to hurt, but this one stings just a little bit more. The defeat came at the hands of Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, the man who replaced Peyton as quarterback in Indy after Manning’s 13-year tenure with the team. Now, Peyton must enter the offseason with that sour taste in his mouth and wonder if it is worth coming back for the 2015 season.

It is hard to admit it, but it is time for Peyton Manning to call it quits on his playing career. I love watching Manning compete but saying he should stay would be selfish. We saw as the season progressed on that the Broncos quarterback began to struggle. Part of the reason was due to the torn quad Manning played with for the last month of the season. That aside, Manning threw for over 700 fewer yards, 16 fewer touchdowns and saw his completion percentage drop 2 percent. Sure, it might not be fair to compare him to the best statistical year ever produced by an NFL quarterback but the offense around him did not change. Nope, Manning actually had more support from the running game and even a better defense, yet his play declined. Manning was still playing at high level, just not the level he could have been.

The bigger issue though was the continual drop in zip Peyton had on his passes. His arm strength is clearly deteriorating and the offseason will only further that trend. Manning, unfortunately, is declining and the odds that he is going to turn around next season and play well enough to get this Denver team to a Super Bowl is highly unlikely. Peyton is not going to get any better before next season and I would really hate to see him come back for another year and put up a mediocre performance because his body was beginning to fail him. It is hard to say what you want the guy to do because he was so great this past season, putting up top-5 quarterback numbers. However, if Sunday’s game was a sign of what is to come, then maybe it is best that Peyton just rests on his laurels. Manning completed only 56.5% of his passes, averaged only a measly 4.6 yards per attempt, posted a meager 75.5 passer rating and finished with a lowly 27.7 total quarterback rating. Not to say that’s always how Manning would play, but if it’s any indicator, then Peyton should stay on his couch.

Another contributing factor would be the departure of Head Coach John Fox. This likely means that the team will undergo some pretty serious overhaul in the offseason as it attempts to find a new direction. There are also rumors that offensive and defensive coordinators Adam Gase and Jack Del Rio could be on the outs, which would mean an almost completely fresh start in Denver. All of the change likely wouldn’t suit Manning and if it turns out that General Manager John Elway is looking towards the future then it is likely that Manning would not even really be part of his plans. Manning after all does count for $21.5 million if he is on the roster at the beginning of the new league year. With Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, Orlando Franklin, Will Montgomery and Jacob Tamme’s contracts set to expire, that money could be crucial. It is still likely at least one of them will not be back meaning the offense will take a hit. Three defensive starters could also be missing next year. That is a decent amount of turnover for a professional team and I think the uncertainty could cause Manning to reconsider returning to Mile High for another year.

In all honesty, Manning does not have much left to play for. He holds the single season record for passing touchdown and passing yards. He set the career mark this season for passing touchdowns and ranks second for career passing yards. He is tied for the most passing touchdowns in a game. He surpassed Dan Marino this year for the most game-winning drives in NFL history and has the most fourth quarter comebacks of all time as well. Manning also ranks only behind Brett Favre for most career wins. There is no doubt that Peyton will be a Hall of Famer. At this point, I do not know what else he has to prove. I do not think that he can suffer through a whole season to lead Denver to another Super Bowl win. He could probably catch Favre in both career wins and career passing yards next season but outside of that, there is little left for Manning to accomplish.

As sad as it is to see a great player retire, I think now is the right time. It is certainly not how Peyton would have wanted it to go but if he tries to hang on too much longer, it is only going to hurt his legacy. I would think that Manning would want people to remember how dominant he was during his illustrious career and never leave a doubt in anyone’s mind that he was one of the best ever. If he comes back and struggles, it tarnishes that legacy with the last season fans have to look back on being one where number 18 showed his age and was clearly past his prime. I just do not think it will get any better for Peyton and with the way things are going this seems like the perfect time to get out. But I guess that is for him to decide. Manning is a competitor and this loss might have just lit a fire under him. We will have to see what his future holds.

Why choosing the Bills will be a mistake for Ryan

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , ,

Rumors are flying around right now that Rex Ryan could be on his way to coach in Buffalo next season to the tune of $27.5 million over the next five years. Ryan is an excellent coach and will make a stout Bills’ defense even better but going to Buffalo is a mistake for Ryan. He is being lured in by all of the money and apparently did not appreciate the Falcons lukewarm response to their first interview with the former Jets coach. Ryan should avoid coaching this northern New York team for a laundry list of reasons.

The Bills have a top shelf defense and some decent offensive weapons. The offensive line is a solid unit and this team can run the ball effectively. However, Buffalo is searching for an upgrade at quarterback due to the less than stellar play at the position holding back the team. Sound familiar? This is the exact same situation Rex Ryan walked away from in New York, just with a slightly improved defense. The gap is really not that much. The Bills finished with the fourth ranked defense allowing 312.2 yards per game. The Jets finished sixth with 327.2 yards per game allowed. That’s a difference of only 15 yards per game. New York even had a better run defense than Buffalo. Buffalo was no doubt better though allowing 7 points fewer per game and the Bills generated 17 more turnovers over the course of the season than its AFC East rival. Certainly, the Bills are a step up, but it is not a huge step.

The issue the two teams share is the mostly mediocre quarterback play. The Bills 2014 starter Kyle Orton just announced his retirement and I do not see him coming back. That leaves Buffalo with E.J. Manuel as the only quarterback on the roster going into the offseason. Manuel would be a reclamation project for Ryan and we saw in New York that he struggled to develop quarterbacks in both Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith. There is a very limited free agent pool of quarterbacks with starting experience in the 2015 class, the best options being either former Titan Jake Locker or Sanchez himself. The Bills are also without a first round pick following the trade last spring with Cleveland in order to pick Sammie Watkins, which means that drafting a quarterback of the future in the first round is out of the question. Buffalo could explore trading for a player like Kirk Cousins in Washington or Johnny Manziel in Cleveland but both of those would be shots in the dark. Ryan once again does not have a proven quarterback and will have his team struggle until he finds one.

I am still very surprised to see Buffalo leaning in the direction of selecting a defensive-minded coach when the offense has struggled so mightily. Ryan is a great coach but he is walking into the same mess that led to a disaster with the Jets. I think he could be viewing this as another opportunity to take a shot at Bill Belichick in New England. Ryan would once again have a chance to meet the Patriots coach twice a year in divisional games. Ryan would love nothing more than to best Belichick and while I am not saying it could be the only reason for Ryan’s decision, it could be a motivating factor. I think Ryan is making a mistake by walking into Buffalo. He has shown his impeccable ability to create defensive schemes that can stymie Hall of Fame caliber quarterbacks but he has struggled to generate an offense. Over Ryan’s six-year stint in New York, the Jets finished 20th, 11th, 25th, 30th, 25th and 22nd in total offense. They also finished 17th, 13th, 13th, 28th, 29th and 28th in scoring offense in that same time span. The Bills need a shot in the arm offensively and Ryan cannot provide it. Looking at it, it just seems like a mistake on paper. I guess now we have to see if what is on paper translates to the playing field.

NFL Divisional round predictions

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , , , , , ,

The Wildcard round featured storied rivalries and entertaining finishes. This weekend though gives us some of the best storylines of the season. We will see Tom Brady face off with the team that has given him so much trouble in the playoffs when Joe Flacco and the Ravens come to town. Two quarterbacks who have greatly changed how the position is viewed will share the field in Seattle when Russell Wilson’s Seahawks host Cam Newton’s Panthers. Two MVP candidates square off as a hobbled Aaron Rodgers takes on Tony Romo’s Cowboys at the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. The best though is the showdown in Denver between golden boy quarterbacks of present and future. Andrew Luck battles the man he replaced in Indianapolis, Peyton Manning, when the Broncos match up with the Colts. This is Manning’s first playoff game ever against the franchise that drafted him in 1998. Now it is time to break down these divisional round games and tell you who will be advancing to the conference championship.

I will start in New England with the Patriots and Ravens will play for the second time in three years in the playoffs. The last time these two teams met, the Pats lost in Foxboro as Baltimore continued its run to the Super Bowl. This time around will be very different though. This New England defense resembles nothing that it did two years ago. There are a couple of holdovers but the biggest additions include corners Brandon Browner and Darelle Revis. Those two alone allow Bill Belichick to pressure the quarterback without safety help for his corners. Joe Flacco has been on a quite a run of late in the playoffs but it will end in Foxboro. Belichick will be sending pressure Flacco’s way all game long and he will emphasize shutting down the Ravens rushing attack as Pittsburgh did a week ago. I think Brady will exorcise some demons and key on a Baltimore secondary that struggled throughout the regular season. Look for Tim Wright and Rob Gronkowski to have big games. The Ravens are a talented enough team to keep the game close but I think New England will pull away late and win 27-14.

Flipping to the NFC now, many are calling this a mirror image game. Seattle and Carolina play very similar styles of football relying heavily on the defense to make plays and the offense to kill the clock with an explosive running game. At the helm, both squads have talented, mobile quarterbacks, who can give defensive coordinators nightmares when trying to game plan against them. The Panthers have been on a hot streak entering the playoffs and continued it last week with a commanding win over Arizona. The score was closer than the game ever seemed. Seattle had the week off and should be ready for the former Heisman winner. Saturday’s game will be very scrappy and I expect some turnovers. Seattle had the best defense in the league and Carolina’s was no slouch either ranking tenth. The first half will be a lot shifting momentum with both teams exchanging field goals. The Panthers might be the underdog but this team came close to upending Seattle earlier this season. This game will go down to the wire and I think in the end Russell Wilson’s ability to make plays outside the pocket will be too much for Carolina to handle. In this defensive battle will be low scoring and finish 19-13, Seahawks on top. When all is said and done, Seattle should be set to host its second straight NFC Championship game.

Dallas will travel north to take on Green Bay in the other NFC divisional round game to travels to Seattle. This should be an exciting game to watch. The Cowboys will need to start fast in this one if they have any hopes of surviving until the next round. They fell behind early and were lucky to escape with a win over Detroit. This game could be much easier for Dallas though than was initially thought if Aaron Rodgers is truly not at 100% with a serious calf injury. However, Rodgers was clearly hobbled in his game against Detroit two weeks ago and still led the Packers to a victory. Yet, the key to this game will be the Packers’ defensive front. The Lions laid out the blueprint to beat the Cowboys last week getting after Tony Romo and limiting Demarco Murray’s ability to break long runs. Romo was sacked six times, Murray averaged less than four yards per carry and it was clear Dallas struggled. I think Green Bay will come out with a plan early to get after Romo. Meanwhile, Dallas’ defense ranked in the bottom quarter of the league for passing yards allowed. I think Rodgers gets the Packers out to an early lead that the Cowboys, as good as they can be, are unable to overcome. Green Bay wins 34-28.

The last game pits two quarterbacks desperate for a playoff win. Peyton Manning’s career is winding down and his critics have always pointed out Manning’s struggles in the playoffs. On the other hand, Andrew Luck has burst onto the scene and has be called a great quarterback but the doubters still have yet to see Luck take his team past the divisional round of the playoffs. When the Colts visit the Broncos, we should see two offenses heading in completely different directions. Indy has struggled running the ball all year and Denver’s defense ranked second during the regular season for rushing yards allowed. This game will fall squarely on the shoulders of the former Stanford quarterback if Indianapolis is going to stand a chance in this game. Luck has the ability to put up incredible numbers but he has also been turnover prone of late. He will need to play mistake free to give the Colts a chance. For Denver though, this game will be about running the football. Offensive coordinator Adam Gase completely restructured Denver’s offense down the stretch this season to rely heavily on the running game, taking the weight off Manning. The Broncos will want to keep the ball out of Luck’s hands as much as possible and simply wear the Colts defense out with C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. This approach should make also negate the Colts pass rush, which registered an impressive 41 sacks this season. This should be an interesting game but in the end, I think the quarterback of the present holds off the quarterback of the future. Broncos win 31-21.

So my prediction is that we will see the Packers travel to Seattle and another round of Brady versus Manning in the conference championship. Let me know if you think I completely overlooked something or you have a different idea of how next weekend will look. Keep an eye for next week’s predictions as well. Enjoy all of these great matchups this weekend.