Indianapolis Colts

Projecting the postseason

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL ,

Football is back!!! It has been too long that we’ve had to wait to watch the best sport in America. Matt and myself continued our tradition by picking the winner of every NFL game. You can see those here and here. Now we move on to the playoffs.

For a refresher of who I had in the playoffs, here our how the conferences finished the year.

Playoffs
AFC

  1. Indianapolis
  2. Denver
  3. New England
  4. Pittsburgh
  5. Kansas City
  6. New York

NFC

  1. Arizona
  2. Green Bay
  3. Dallas
  4. Atlanta
  5. Seattle
  6. Minnesota

Wildcard
(3) New England over (6) New York
(4) Pittsburgh over (5) Kansas City
(3) Dallas over (6) Minnesota
(5) Seattle over (4) Atlanta

The Jets were lucky to make the playoffs thanks to a really easy schedule. Their luck completely runs out against division rival New England. The Pats may have lost a lot of their defensive talent but that doesn’t mean that they don’t have enough to handle the Jets. Pittsburgh’s ground game will rumble them through Chiefs defense. LeVeon Bell is a stud and Ben Roethlisberger will probably light it up versus a young KC secondary. Dallas proves to be too much for this young Minnesota team. The offensive line keeps Romo clean for way too long. Seattle might be a wildcard team but it doesn’t matter. They will run Atlanta out of their own building.

Divisional
(1) Indianapolis over (4) Pittsburgh
(2) Denver over (3) New England
(1) Arizona over (5) Seattle
(3) Dallas over (2) Green Bay

We get some absolutely fantastic matchups in the second round. Pittsburgh’s patchwork secondary folds under the wieght of Andrew Luck and company. Manning vs. Brady returns to the playoffs for another round. Manning gets the better of Brady in this one as that same Patriots defense fails to hold up against Denver’s diverse passing attack. The better matchups are actually in the NFC though. Arizona and Seattle face off as the two best teams in the conference. Arizona’s steady offensive play and smothering defense proves to be too much for a shaky Seattle o-line. Dallas finally gets its revenge at Lambeau and finally we can all put the Dez catch talk to bed.

Andrew LuckConference Championships
(1) Indianapolis over (2) Denver
(1) Arizona over (3) Dallas

Sure it is kinda lame to have the two number one seeds going on but they both deserve it. Peyton returns to where he began and falls against his replacement. Luck and his new veteran friends Frank Gore and Andre Johnson defeat the Broncos once again and Manning must once again consider retirement. People think I am too high on Arizona but the Cardinals were undefeated last year in games that Carson Palmer started. A revamped offensive line with Mike Iupati means that they keep him clean and defeat Dallas.

Colts logoSuper Bowl
Indianapolis over Arizona

This is probably Carson Palmer’s best shot at a ring. However, that isn’t enough for them to overcome Andre Luck and the Colts. Luck is primed for a huge season in a contract year and some new weapons. The Colts are crazy deep at wide receiver and the defense gets Robert Mathis back. Arizona will be tough to beat with a great defense. However, the running game just isn’t enough to keep that potent Colts offense off the field enough. Luck wins his first of what I’m sure will be many Super Bowl appearances.

So that’s it. The whole season predicted from start to finish. Check out Matt’s playoff picks here  and enjoy your season!

Predicting the playoffs

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , ,

by Matt Luppino
What are we talking about?!?!? Somewhere, Jim Mora is displeased, but I’m going to do it anyways. As a reminder, here are my playoff teams from each league based off of my predictions posted yesterday.

AFC

  • Denver
  • Indianapolis
  • New England
  • Pittsburgh
  • Kansas City
  • Buffalo

NFC

  • Green Bay
  • Seattle
  • New York
  • Atlanta
  • Arizona
  • Philadelphia

Wild Card
(3) New England over (6) Buffalo
(5) Kansas City over (4) Pittsburgh
(6) Philly over (3) NYG
(5) Arizona over (4) Atlanta

Rex Ryan will bring a tough defense to Foxborough, but pissed off Tom Brady should be able to easily dispatch of them. I like the potency of Kansas City’s offense against a weaker and less experienced Steelers defense, especially Jamaal Charles in the cold weather of Pittsburgh. If the Giants struggle to get a pass rush on Sam Bradford, I could see him picking apart that secondary with ease while being more successful in covering the Giants. The Cardinals defense will be tough on Matt Ryan, and if Carson can avoid mistakes, he should punish Atlanta, even at home.

Divisional
(1) Denver over (5) Kansas City
(2) Indianapolis over (3) New England
(1) Green Bay over (6) Philadelphia
(2) Seattle over (5) Arizona

I don’t like picking all of the bye week teams, but I feel good on most of these picks.  Once again assuming Peyton is still Peyton, I can see him performing well against the Chiefs at altitude to grind out a tough win.  In a rematch of the famous Deflategate game, we might see an even more pissed off Colts team than just simply pissed off Tom Brady, and I see Andrew Luck finally besting him to move on; should be a good game though.  Sam Bradford has little playoff experience, and most of that Packers team, especially Aaron Rodgers, has plenty; I see Green Bay, at Lambeau, outclassing the Eagles.  As for the NFC West matchup, it is also a toss-up, but I see the Seahawks defense as more dangerous against Carson Palmer than Atlanta, allowing them to move on at a raucous CenturyLink Field.

Andrew LuckConference
(2) Indianapolis over (1) Denver
(2) Seattle over (1) Green Bay

After Peyton bested Luck in Indianapolis during the regular season, I see Luck repaying the favor in Denver. The new experience on the Colts team will pay off, and (bonus prediction) Peyton Manning will retire without the elusive second ring he went to Denver for. In the NFC, this is a tight matchup in a rematch of last year’s NFC championship. In another close game, I see Seattle’s rushing attack being more explosive than Green Bay’s in a likely showdown on Lambeau’s frozen tundra, sending the Hawks to their third straight Super Bowl.

Colts logoSuper Bowl
Indianapolis over Seattle

My initial takeaways from this game being in San Francisco: 1) it should be warmer, which is better for passing than colder temperatures; 2) it is very close to Stanford, making a large pocket of the fans pro-Luck; and 3) San Francisco HATES Seattle with passion. So in a pro-Indy environment, where Luck has the ability to pass effectively, I see him besting the dreaded Legion of Boom, scoring enough to keep Russell Wilson and Beast Mode at bay, and winning his first Super Bowl ring, 31-23.

And with that, let’s welcome back football.  In the highly unlikely event that all of these predictions are right, I told you so. Check out Chris’ picks here, and have a great season everyone. Go Tampa!

Processing the NFL’s crazy 24 hours

Chris McGlynn Football, Free Agency, NFL , , , , ,

Everyone new that the start of the new league year was sure to bring some fireworks. I don’t think anyone saw that coming though. We are only a little over 24 hours into the 2015 NFL league year and the chaos is only now beginning to subside. We saw the Seahawks land the highest paid tight end in history. Darrelle Revis rejoined his old team for a small fortune. The Eagles continued to wheel and deal under Chip Kelly. Even Ryan Fitzpatrick changed teams (wait that happens pretty much every offseason). Time to take a second look at some of the teams involved in the fray after the dust has started to settle.

Winners:
This does not mean these teams won free agency, which, according to Michael Schottey of Bleacher Report, may not really matter. Either way, these are the teams who are in the best shape following the first day of signings.

Seattle Seahawks: No matter what you give up, getting arguably the best tight end in the NFL is a good deal. The Seahawks did give up All-Pro center Max Unger and their first round pick, but centers tend to be easier to replace than tight ends and with an historically week tight end class scheduled to hit the NFL next year, this was a good move. The Seahawks really need to work to rebuild that offensive line as both Unger and Carpenter are in new homes heading into next year. Still, for the defending NFC champions, this makes Russell Wilson even more deadly. Bringing in Cary Williams as a nickel corner doesn’t hurt either.

New York Jets: It is hard to look at the Jets and not think that this team looks infinitely better than it did on Sunday. The Jets have shelled out a lot of picks and money to do so but New York has made major strides in its rebuilding process. The secondary immediately becomes one of the best in the league signing Revis and Buster Skrine. The offense looks a lot better with the addition of Brandon Marshall. James Carpenter could prove to be an asset as well. The Jets were also smart to release Percy Harvin rather than give him the $10.5 million he was due. Bringing in Ryan Fitzpatrick is an upgrade over Geno Smith, especially under Chan Gailey. There is still more work to be done but the change is drastic.

St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford and his mega contract is gone. In return, the Rams now have Nick Foles suiting up. Both of these players are coming off of injuries but you would have to imagine that Foles is in much better shape. Bradford tore his ACL for the second straight season while Foles broke his collarbone. The Rams also managed to avoid giving up anything more than a fourth round pick this year. They might potentially lose a second rounder next year if Foles meets certain criteria but as a Rams fan, I am much happier having Foles as my prospective starter.

Losers

Philadelphia Eagles: On one hand, I look at the Eagles defense and I am impressed with how much better it looks now. Signing Byron Maxwell, Walter Thurmond and trading for Kiko Alonso will do that for you. However, I flip to the offensive side of the ball and I cringe. The Eagles are now without their starting quarterback, running back or leading receiver from a season ago. Pair that with Todd Herremanns leaving for Indianapolis and the Eagles have a lot of holes to fill. Signing Ryan Matthews could be the answer at running back but he is very injury prone, as is new quarterback Sam Bradford. Chip Kelly has taken the couple of questions surrounding Philadelphia and multiplied them ten-fold.

Denver Broncos: The Broncos did not make any splash signings and no one really expected them too. But the players they let walk away really hurt. Denver lost starting tackle Orlando Franklin to the division rival Chargers. Terrance Knighton also informed the Broncos that he would not be returning next year. Couple those two departures with Julius Thomas signing with Jacksonville and suddenly the Broncos are down three starters from 2014. With Nate Irving and Rahim Moore still unsigned, the Broncos could lose a few more starters before free agency is all said and done.

Indianapolis Colts: Indy has spent a combine total of $64.2 million on four players. The average age of those four players is roughly 32. These players all have big names but none of them are likely to make the impact the Colts are paying for. Andre Johnson is not going to return to Pro Bowl form any time soon. Neither is Frank Gore. Kendall Langford is a nice addition to the defensive line but pairing Trent Cole across from Rasheed Mathis give the Colts one of the oldest starting outside linebacker duos. With better players available, the Colts could have found a way to spend this money a little more wisely.

Free agency is far from over but after the first day or so of player signings, mixed with all of the crazy trades, this how the league appears to be trending. Some other things to note would if Oakland lands DeMarco Murray, the free agent class suddenly looks much better. New England will once again sit out on over spending for free agents, but don’t be surprised to see a trade involving the Patriots to surface. Lastly, the Saints have actually set themselves up fairly well for the coming future but their moves in the coming days will dictate whether or not this can continue to be a successful offseason. I will definitely be back with more in the coming days as more agents begin to sign.

Championship Sunday picks

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , ,

The divisional round of the 2015 playoffs went just about according to plan. All of the top seeds coming off their byes won, except Denver. So now, we have a rematch of the first game of the season, this time with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. The other game features one quarterback trying to prove he is worth his high draft spot, the other is trying to cement his spot as the greatest quarterback in history. It is the final four in the NFL and now it is time to breakdown who is heading to Arizona and who is heading home.

Green Bay will travel to Seattle this weekend where Russell Wilson and the Seahawks will host Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in a grudge match. The Seahawks once again have home field advantage in this game as they did in Week 1 against the Pack. Seattle rolled through Green Bay that time around, thrashing the Packers 36-16. The Packs’ rushing attack sputtered against the Seahawks run defense back in September, managing a meager 80 yards on the ground on 21 attempts and Marshawn Lynch rumbled for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns in that match up. Seattle will once again look to win the battle in the trenches and force an apparently hobbled Aaron Rodgers to make all of the plays. One major hit to the Seahawks is the absence of Percy Harvin in this game. Seattle’s offense has adjusted and compensated since he has left but in that first meeting he accounted for 100 yards of offense and caught every pass thrown his way. He clearly gave the Packers some problems and he will not be able to pose any of those now from his couch in New Jersey. Another new factor is Packers’ rookie Devonte Adams arrival as a huge threat. His 7-catch 117-yard performance, which included a touchdown, will be something Pete Carroll and his staff factor into today’s game plan. This game also features likely the best passing offense in the league against arguably the best secondary in the NFL. The scary thing for the Packers is that the Seahawks’ defense has actually gotten better down the stretch of the season. Seattle hasn’t allowed more than 17 points to a team since Week 11 against Kansas City. When all is said and done though, I think the Packers will break that streak. Between Rodgers, Adams, Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, not to mention anyone of a number of role players, this offense can score. I would not be surprised to see Green Bay spread out the Seattle defense and then find their matchups to exploit. Wilson and Lynch will power this team for a while on the ground but in the end, a lack of a prominent passing game will be the Seahawks downfall. Packers hang on 27-24.

Meanwhile, Andrew Luck will be looking to show that last week was not a fluke and that he has officially arrived in the NFL if he can carry the Colts to their first Super Bowl appearance since 2009 against the future Hall of Famer in Tom Brady. If Brady wins, he will start the most Super Bowls by a player ever. Since 2004, this will mark the sixth time the Patriots meet the Colts in the playoffs. The rivalry is unparalleled to any other in the NFL as these two teams have so much hate for each other. Even if the Manning-Brady rivalry no longer exists between these two teams, Luck is more than up to the task of carrying on the legacy. You always think these games could go either way or that these two should be evenly matched but in reality, Brady has had Indy’s number. In his career, the former Michigan man is 12-4 against the Colts. These two teams played earlier this season and New England once again displayed their dominance over Indianapolis in a 42-20 romp. The key in that game was Jonas Gray’s 200 plus yards rushing and 4 touchdowns. Since that game, Gray has not carried the ball more than 12 carries or registered 65 yards in a game. Indianapolis was also unable to find any sort of ground game in that matchup. Indy struggled its way to 19 yards on 16 carries that night. However, the Colts managed 99 yards against a top-flight Denver defense last weekend. If Indy can find a way to get a rushing attack rolling, they could be scary and pose a real threat to New England. The reality is though that New England will not let that be possible. The strength of the Patriots defense is their secondary. Scoring early will mean that the option to run the ball will be almost out of the question for Indy. Luck is a great young quarterback but it is not enough to overcome New England’s multifaceted offense. Pats come away with a win in this one 34-24.

Those are my Super Bowl picks. Green Bay will clash with New England out in the desert two weeks from today in what should be an amazing battle of two great quarterbacks and offensive assets galore. Both of these games this weekend should be exciting but in the end, the two savvy, veteran signal callers will come out on top of the class of 2012’s finest. My players of the week: Randall Cobb for Green Bay and Brandon Browner for New England. Should be a great day of football. Let me know where I went wrong or if you think these games are going to end differently.

NFL Divisional round predictions

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , , , , , ,

The Wildcard round featured storied rivalries and entertaining finishes. This weekend though gives us some of the best storylines of the season. We will see Tom Brady face off with the team that has given him so much trouble in the playoffs when Joe Flacco and the Ravens come to town. Two quarterbacks who have greatly changed how the position is viewed will share the field in Seattle when Russell Wilson’s Seahawks host Cam Newton’s Panthers. Two MVP candidates square off as a hobbled Aaron Rodgers takes on Tony Romo’s Cowboys at the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. The best though is the showdown in Denver between golden boy quarterbacks of present and future. Andrew Luck battles the man he replaced in Indianapolis, Peyton Manning, when the Broncos match up with the Colts. This is Manning’s first playoff game ever against the franchise that drafted him in 1998. Now it is time to break down these divisional round games and tell you who will be advancing to the conference championship.

I will start in New England with the Patriots and Ravens will play for the second time in three years in the playoffs. The last time these two teams met, the Pats lost in Foxboro as Baltimore continued its run to the Super Bowl. This time around will be very different though. This New England defense resembles nothing that it did two years ago. There are a couple of holdovers but the biggest additions include corners Brandon Browner and Darelle Revis. Those two alone allow Bill Belichick to pressure the quarterback without safety help for his corners. Joe Flacco has been on a quite a run of late in the playoffs but it will end in Foxboro. Belichick will be sending pressure Flacco’s way all game long and he will emphasize shutting down the Ravens rushing attack as Pittsburgh did a week ago. I think Brady will exorcise some demons and key on a Baltimore secondary that struggled throughout the regular season. Look for Tim Wright and Rob Gronkowski to have big games. The Ravens are a talented enough team to keep the game close but I think New England will pull away late and win 27-14.

Flipping to the NFC now, many are calling this a mirror image game. Seattle and Carolina play very similar styles of football relying heavily on the defense to make plays and the offense to kill the clock with an explosive running game. At the helm, both squads have talented, mobile quarterbacks, who can give defensive coordinators nightmares when trying to game plan against them. The Panthers have been on a hot streak entering the playoffs and continued it last week with a commanding win over Arizona. The score was closer than the game ever seemed. Seattle had the week off and should be ready for the former Heisman winner. Saturday’s game will be very scrappy and I expect some turnovers. Seattle had the best defense in the league and Carolina’s was no slouch either ranking tenth. The first half will be a lot shifting momentum with both teams exchanging field goals. The Panthers might be the underdog but this team came close to upending Seattle earlier this season. This game will go down to the wire and I think in the end Russell Wilson’s ability to make plays outside the pocket will be too much for Carolina to handle. In this defensive battle will be low scoring and finish 19-13, Seahawks on top. When all is said and done, Seattle should be set to host its second straight NFC Championship game.

Dallas will travel north to take on Green Bay in the other NFC divisional round game to travels to Seattle. This should be an exciting game to watch. The Cowboys will need to start fast in this one if they have any hopes of surviving until the next round. They fell behind early and were lucky to escape with a win over Detroit. This game could be much easier for Dallas though than was initially thought if Aaron Rodgers is truly not at 100% with a serious calf injury. However, Rodgers was clearly hobbled in his game against Detroit two weeks ago and still led the Packers to a victory. Yet, the key to this game will be the Packers’ defensive front. The Lions laid out the blueprint to beat the Cowboys last week getting after Tony Romo and limiting Demarco Murray’s ability to break long runs. Romo was sacked six times, Murray averaged less than four yards per carry and it was clear Dallas struggled. I think Green Bay will come out with a plan early to get after Romo. Meanwhile, Dallas’ defense ranked in the bottom quarter of the league for passing yards allowed. I think Rodgers gets the Packers out to an early lead that the Cowboys, as good as they can be, are unable to overcome. Green Bay wins 34-28.

The last game pits two quarterbacks desperate for a playoff win. Peyton Manning’s career is winding down and his critics have always pointed out Manning’s struggles in the playoffs. On the other hand, Andrew Luck has burst onto the scene and has be called a great quarterback but the doubters still have yet to see Luck take his team past the divisional round of the playoffs. When the Colts visit the Broncos, we should see two offenses heading in completely different directions. Indy has struggled running the ball all year and Denver’s defense ranked second during the regular season for rushing yards allowed. This game will fall squarely on the shoulders of the former Stanford quarterback if Indianapolis is going to stand a chance in this game. Luck has the ability to put up incredible numbers but he has also been turnover prone of late. He will need to play mistake free to give the Colts a chance. For Denver though, this game will be about running the football. Offensive coordinator Adam Gase completely restructured Denver’s offense down the stretch this season to rely heavily on the running game, taking the weight off Manning. The Broncos will want to keep the ball out of Luck’s hands as much as possible and simply wear the Colts defense out with C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. This approach should make also negate the Colts pass rush, which registered an impressive 41 sacks this season. This should be an interesting game but in the end, I think the quarterback of the present holds off the quarterback of the future. Broncos win 31-21.

So my prediction is that we will see the Packers travel to Seattle and another round of Brady versus Manning in the conference championship. Let me know if you think I completely overlooked something or you have a different idea of how next weekend will look. Keep an eye for next week’s predictions as well. Enjoy all of these great matchups this weekend.