Mike Williams

NFL Draft Daily: Should you pay big money to wide receivers or keep drafting them instead?

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NFL , , , , , , , , , ,

NFL Draft Daily looks at top stories, historical trends, player performances and more all through the lens of the NFL Draft. After all, there are only 35 days until the 2022 NFL draft. Check back in tomorrow for another entry.

The past few weeks in the NFL are like nothing ever seen before. Massive trades with league-altering implications are occurring on a daily basis. Record deals are being signed at every step. Welcome to the league’s version of March Madness. One of the most interesting trends in all of these moves has to do with the wide receiver position.

Miami gave Hill $72 million in guaranteed money as part of his new deal. (Wikimedia Commons)

Tyreek Hill became the latest NFL superstar to be traded and the deal highlights the growing divide between two schools of thought as it pertains to the value of wide receivers. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest moves we’ve seen this offseason involving receivers.

Los Angeles made the move to keep Mike Williams in house. The Chargers offered him a three-year, $60-million deal to do so. That contract makes him the sixth highest paid receiver by annual average, tied with Chris Godwin and Amari Cooper. Los Angeles now has two of the top six highest paid receivers in the NFL. Keenan Allen makes just a shade over $20 million per year himself. Jacksonville shocked everyone the following week by splashing out $84 million to sign Christian Kirk. The deal included $37 million in guaranteed money and made Kirk the 10th-highest paid receiver in the league on average. He has yet to reach 1,000 yards receiving in one season in his career.

Shortly after Kirk signed with Jacksonville, Dallas shipped Amari Cooper to Cleveland in what mostly amounted to a salary dump. The Cowboys received a fifth-round pick and swapped sixth-round picks with the Browns to complete the deal. Say what you want about Cooper, but he is a four-time Pro Bowl with five 1,000-yard seasons in his career. He will carry a pretty sizable cap hit in 2023 and 2024, but teams typically have a way of restructuring those to minimize that cap hit.

Since entering the league in 2014, Adams has the second-most touchdown catches, trailing only Mike Evans. (Wikimedia Commons)

Then, a week ago, the Raiders reunited Davante Adams with his college quarterback Derek Carr. They sent a first- and second-round pick to Green Bay in order to land him. They promptly made him the highest-paid receiver in the league with a five-year $140-million pact. That benchmarked lasted less than a week.

Wednesday saw the Dolphins acquire Hill for five draft picks, including their first and second rounder for this year. Hill wanted to be the highest paid receiver in the league. He got the same amount of money as Adams, but he earns it in one year less. Hill’s new annual average is $30 million.

What I find really interesting is the two competing schools of thought on the wide receiver position right now. On one hand, you have a handful of teams that are willing to pay big money and premium draft capital to bring in proven veterans. On the other, you have teams willing to move on from proven receivers in an effort to save cap space and recoup draft picks. ESPN NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid recently said he could see the wide receiver position treated much like running backs are in the NFL: It is important to have a good one, but you don’t need to overpay to keep them. I think I might be coming around to this line of thinking.

We have seen some phenomenal receiver classes come out in the past few years. 2019 was thought to be a weaker group, but D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Diontae Johnson and Hunter Renfrow all went in the middle rounds. 2020 produced Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney. 2021 was not quite as prolific, but was headlined by Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith. If Amon-Ra St. Brown, Elijah Moore and Rashod Bateman take the next step this upcoming season, it could be another special draft class.

2022 is shaping up to be another impressive class. Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams and Treylon Burks are all widely considered first-round prospects. Christian Watson and George Pickens could crash the first-round party as well. There is depth beyond that top group as well, as has been the case with each of the previous three draft classes.

Chase accounted for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns in his rookie season. (Wikimedia Commons)

The point is, it seems like we are entering the golden age of young receivers. Jefferson, Chase, Metcalf, and Samuel are unquestionably among the top 10 in the game. Brown, Lamb, Waddle, Smith, McLaurin, Higgins and Johnson are all in the top 25 at the position. Every one of those guys is currently on their rookie contract.

You don’t necessarily have to spend big to have elite talent at the position. Look at Stefon Diggs and Cooper Kupp. They’ve been two of the best receivers in the NFL over the past two years. They make about half what Hill and Adams are set to make on an annual basis. They could also be due for big raises if this is how much elite receivers are making on the open market.

Let’s be clear, having and paying an elite receiver can be a winning strategy. The Chiefs won a Super Bowl with Hill. The Buccaneers won a Super Bowl with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. That being said, if we are going to start seeing teams paying quarterback-level money to wide receivers, it is hard to see that trend continuing.

It might work in Miami and Los Angeles, where they have quarterbacks on their rookie contracts. But for the Raiders, there is a good chance that having to pay both Derek Carr and Davante Adams is going to put a pretty big squeeze on where they can build the rest of their roster. Especially without a first or second-round pick this season.

There are exceptions to every rule though. Adams, Hill, Kupp, Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins are all game-changing players and likely worth the investment. The same is true for running backs with Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey (when healthy), Nick Chubb and Dalvin Cook.

What I think we are going to see is a decline in interest in the middle class of receivers. Paying for elite talent makes sense. Paying guys like Kenny Golladay, Christian Kirk, Robby Anderson, Corey Davis and Michael Gallup likely won’t be worth the investment when you can find replacement level players or better in the draft. That sentiment is true of every position, I just think we are going to start to see it applied more with receivers. It will be a very interesting trend to watch and one that will be greatly impacted by how well the Raiders, Dolphins, Packers, Chiefs and Chargers do in 2022.

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Fantasy Football 2020 Waiver Wire Pickups: Plenty of replacement options for Dak Prescott

Chris McGlynn Fantasy, Football, NFL , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I’m back with some fantasy content this week. I had to pass on writing my waiver wire column last week because life just got a bit too busy. I guess that’s what happens though when you are buying a house.

Now that I’ve got a bit more free time on my hands, I am able to dive deep into that available players tab and help you find the best players to add to your roster for this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, MIA
For the fourth straight week, Ryan Fitzpatrick put up 20-plus fantasy points. He trailed only Patrick Mahomes in Week 5 among fantasy quarterbacks. Somehow, he is available in 80% (!!!!!) of ESPN leagues. If you are refusing to pick him up because Tua Tagovailoa could take over, you are missing out. He continues to put up huge numbers and heads into a Week 6 matchup with the Jets of all teams. While New York has had some success against Philip Rivers, Nick Mullens and Brett Rypien, that defense has given up 27.2 points per game when facing Josh Allen and Kyler Murray. Expect Fitzmagic to be closer to those two.

Tannehill looked sharp in the Titans’ return from an unexpected bye week. (Wikimedia Commons)

Ryan Tannehill, QB, TEN
There are a lot of streaming options/potential Dak Prescott replacements for your lineup this week. Tannehill dazzled on Tuesday Night Football with three passing touchdowns and one more on the ground. It was against a Bills defense missing it’s best defensive player in Stephon Gilmore, but a good sign nonetheless. He faces a middle of the road Texans defense in Week 6 as well. I wouldn’t expect him to replicate his 29-point outing again, but should fill in nicely for the week if you are desperate for a new quarterback.

Justin Herbert, QB, LAC
This rookie came to play. Herbert put up big numbers again against the Saints, topping 22 points for the third time in his four career starts. Now his upside is capped a little bit by the Chargers tendency to run the ball a lot, but he also tends to take a few shots downfield every game. He is heading into a bye in Week 6, but has a ton of value when he returns to action. Herbert’s next five games after the break are against the Jaguars, Broncos, Raiders, Dolphins and Jets. That is about as favorable of a fantasy stretch as you can ask for. He is still available in about 65% of ESPN leagues, but after his showing on Monday Night, he won’t stick around long.

Andy Dalton, QB, DAL
There are a lot of quarterback options this week. Dalton stepped in for the injured Dak Prescott. He will be Dallas’ starter going forward. Even if he is not as talented as Prescott, Dalton has arguably the best receiving corps in the league to work with and a workhorse running back. Given that the Cowboys’ defense can’t stop anyone either, he is going to be throwing the ball a lot. He faces a tough Washington front seven behind a battered offensive line, but I still think Dalton will point up points right away.

Goff has been a bit inconsistent this season, but has three games with over 20 fantasy points. (Wikimedia Commons)

Jared Goff, QB, LAR
Turns out I recommended Goff a week too early. After a lackluster performance against the Giants, he tuned up Washington’s defense with 309 yards passing and three total touchdowns. It is hard to know which version of the Rams offense is going to show up at this point, but Goff faces a favorable matchup in Week 6 against the 49ers. Hard to imagine the 49ers being a team you want your fantasy quarterback to face, but their defense is ravaged by injuries. Ryan Fitzpatrick carved up the Niners’ secondary for the second-most points in fantasy this past week. If you are looking for a streaming option at quarterback, you could do much worse than Goff.

Alexander Mattison, RB, MIN
For those of you who drafted Mattison and hung onto him this long, your patience might be rewarded. Dalvin Cook went down with a groin injury early in the second half against Seattle. Mattison finished with a staggering 20 carries, most of which came in the second half. Minnesota ranks fourth in rushing yards and third in attempts under Gary Kubiak. If Cook misses any time at all, Mattison is a borderline RB1 for every week he does. He is probably best in standard scoring leagues, but he can catch a few passes out of the backfield as well. He faces the Falcons in Week 6, who are giving up the second-most points in the NFL. If he is available, go get him.

Damien Harris, RB, NE
Didn’t pick up Harris last week? It’s not too late, but you are running out of time. He had an expected bye week after his game against the Broncos was postponed, which means he will be playing the rest of the season. He has a chance to be the feature back, or as close as the Patriots will ever come to having one. He will now face the Broncos in Week 6. With Cam Newton likely to return, he could lose out on some carries, but Harris will still see enough attention to be fantasy relevant.

Chase Edmonds, RB, ARI
If you are in PPR leagues, Edmonds might already be off the waiver wire. If he is still there though, he could have some spot flex value for your team. He picked on a weak Jets defense in Week 5 and faces a below average Dolphins one in Week 6. Only earning eight total touches is a bit concerning, but he was definitely the more effective running back in the Cardinals’ backfield. I will be curious to see if his role continues to increase with Kenyan Drake struggling. He is worth stashing on your roster, just in case he claims lead back responsibilities.

Chase Claypool, WR, PIT
Where in the world did that come from? Destroyer of defenses Chase Claypool put up 11 more points than the next-highest scoring PPR receiver in Week 5. When Dionte Johnson went down with an injury, which has been a frequent occurrence this season, Claypool stepped up. Ben Roethlisberger seems to trust him already. While it is unlikely he will score four touchdowns again at any point this year, or maybe ever, Claypool carries value in fantasy. Even if Johnson does return for Week 6, Claypool is a big-play and red zone threat. He looks like a matchup-specific flex play at the very least.

Travis Fulgham, WR, PHI
Speaking of the next highest-scoring receiver in fantasy… Proceed with caution on this one. Travis Fulgham was on exactly 0.2 percent of rosters heading into Week 5. He had a monster week though against the Steelers. With 10 catches for 152 yard and a touchdown on 13 targets, Fulgham put up WR1 type production. But was it just a flash in the pan? Desean Jackson, Jalen Reagor and Alshon Jeffrey should eventually return to action. Until they do though, Fulgham should hold flex value, especially in PPR leagues. You might have to sit him against the Ravens, but you could consider starting him against the Giants and Cowboys after that.

Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, Jacksonville
It might be time to get to know Laviska Shenault Jr. The rookie from Colorado has earned at least six targets in three straight games. He racked up seven catches for 79 yards in Week 5 while facing the Texans. What makes Shenault appealing is his consistency. He has scored at least eight points in every contest under PPR scoring. D.J. Chark is battling an ankle injury, which should open up even more targets heading Shenault’s way. If he can start finding his way into the end zone, this will be a guy you want starting in your lineup every week.

Mecole Hardman, WR, KC
With Sammy Watkins set to miss some time due to injury, Hardman has an opportunity to step up. He is best-suited for standard leagues given his big-play nature. Few teams can take the top off a defense like the Chiefs can. However, he is definitely a boom-or-bust type play. He has not had more four targets in four of his five games this season. If you are willing to roll the dice on him in Week 6, he should have a slightly higher floor given that his targets should increase with less competition for Patrick Mahomes’ attention.

Mike Williams, WR, LAC
Williams got healthy and put up a huge statline against the Saints. He became the focus of the passing game when Keenan Allen exited with back spasms. Williams is always intriguing at his size from a fantasy perspective. He tends to draw a solid number of targets in the red zone, which creates a good floor for him. However, if Allen misses time, Williams becomes hugely valuable. However, with Los Angeles heading into a bye, Williams is nothing more than a roster stash that could help you when your other receivers are on a bye.

Eric Ebron, TE, PIT
If you are in a PPR league, Ebron does carry some solid value as a high-floor tight end. For the the third straight game, he earned at least five targets. Unfortunately, he has not picked up too many yards and only managed one touchdown. Ebron does get a favorable matchup with a Browns defense allowing the sixth most points to tight ends in PPR. What would really help Ebron’s fantasy prospects would be holding onto the football. He has fumbled twice in his past three games. As far as spot starters go, Ebron is a decent option.

Irv Smith Jr., TE, MIN
If you are in deeper league or look for a deep sleeper at tight end this week, Irv Smith Jr. could be a sneaky play. After back-to-back games without a catch, Smith had four for 64 yards on five targets against the Seahawks. Given how little he has produced up to this point, counting on him replicating those numbers is foolish, but he gets a great matchup with a Falcons defense allowing the second most points in fantasy to opposing tight ends. They are still 8.7 points worse than the average after allowing zero points to Panthers tight ends in Week 5 (because the Panthers don’t have a pass catching tight end they feature in this offense). He is my favorite boom-or-bust candidate of the week at the position.

Fantasy Football 2020 Waiver Wire Pickups: Nyheim Hines and Corey Davis highlight Week 2 options

Chris McGlynn Fantasy, Football, NFL , , , , , , , , , , ,

Football is back! I thoroughly enjoyed my Sunday of watching the NFL on my couch. If you are like me, you were also likely checking your fantasy team (or teams in my case) on your phone the whole afternoon. I have been a lover of fantasy football for a really long time. I participated in my first league as an overeager and very confused eight-year-old back in 2006. I have never looked back. This year, I wanted to start creating some fantasy football content. I’ve written some predraft rankings before, but I figured I would attempt to add a weekly column to my usual slate of content offering some fantasy advice. I don’t pretend to be an expert, but hopefully I can help some people win their matchups.

Finding the top free-agent adds early in the season is crucial to fantasy success. There are players that slip through the cracks of your fantasy draft that end up determining the outcome of the league. In recent years, Alvin Kamara (2017), James Conner (2018) and Mark Andrews (2019) all went largely undrafted. Each of them finished sixth or better at their position during those seasons in PPR scoring. Working the waiver wire is important. You cannot just rely on your draft. So let’s dive into my favorite fantasy pick ups of for Week 2.

Cousins finished 15th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring in 2019. (Wikimedia Commons)

Kirk Cousins, QB, MIN
He might not have been yelling his famous catch phrase after his Week 1 performance, but Cousins looked pretty sharp despite the loss. He completed 19 of his 25 passes for 271 yards and a pair of scores. He did toss an interception, but he made up for it with 34 yards rushing. His numbers have him as a fringe QB1 option against an underrated Packers defense. Cousins gets a much less impressive Colts defense next. That Indy defense just allowed Gardner Minshew to complete 19 of 20 passes and throw three touchdown passes. Cousins has better weapons to work with than Minshew and should be a solid starting option in Week 2.

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, SF
I am not convinced Garoppolo is a good quarterback, but fantasy success is not always linked to on-field success. Jameis Winston threw 30 interceptions in 2019 and was the fifth-best quarterback in fantasy. Garoppolo had a solid first week, posting 259 yards passing and two touchdowns with no turnovers. His receiving options are very limited at the moment with Deebo Samuel on IR and first-round pick Brandon Aiyuk dealing with a hamstring injury. He still has George Kittle and a solid group of running backs to lean on though. If you need are streaming quarterbacks, there are few better options heading into Week 2. Garoppolo faces a Jets defense that just gave up 27 fantasy points to Josh Allen. He might not reach those heights, but Garoppolo has a high floor heading into the matchup.

Nyheim Hines, RB, IND
This is definitely the first player I am putting a waiver claim on this week. Marlon Mack is going to miss the rest of the season with an Achilles injury. That opens up a ton of playing time for Hines. Yes, Jonathan Taylor is likely still the lead back in Indianapolis, but Hines evenly split the second half snaps at running back for the Colts on Sunday. He ended up with 15 touches (seven rushes, eight catches) and two touchdowns. He has more value in PPR leagues, but is still worth adding in standard scoring leagues. He faces a Vikings defense next that just gave up 158 yards rushing to the Packers.

Brown finds himself in a wide-open backfield after the Rams cut ties with Todd Gurley this offseason. (Wikimedia Commons)

Malcolm Brown, RB, LAR
Heading into Week 1, this backfield looked like a logjam with Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson Jr. joining Brown. The Rams also have a capable complement of pass catchers, so it felt like Brown might get crowded out. Instead, he racked up 78 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. He also added 31 yards on three catches. There is no guarantee he will be the lead back week to week, but Brown seems poised for a healthy workload. He has the feel of a solid flex option going up against a banged up Eagles defense in Week 2.

James Robinson, RB, JAX
If you didn’t hop on this one last week when he was announced as the starter, you aren’t too late. Robinson is still available in more than 70% of ESPN leagues. He did not put up gaudy numbers in the Jaguars win, but he had 17 touches and was the clear lead back for the team. He seems like a better option in standard leagues, only catching one pass in the contest. Jacksonville seems like they want to be a run-first team though, which bodes well for Robinson’s fantasy viability. He faces a tough Titans defense, but the long-term value here is good enough to go get him.

Benny Snell Jr., RB, PIT
James Conner fantasy managers should be all over this one. Snell stepped in for an injured Conner and rushed for 113 yards against the Giants. He joins Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Derrick Henry as the only running backs in the league to eclipse 100 yards rushing in Week 1. He definitely has more value in standard leagues than PPR ones with no catches despite his heavy usage. Snell faces a tough Broncos defense in Week 2, but will get the Houston defense that gave up those 100+ yards to Edwards-Helaire in Week 3. He should have some fantasy value if Conner returns, but maximize his window as the lead back with Conner banged up.

Russell Gage, WR, ATL
It is unlikely Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Gage will all go over 100 yards receiving again this season. However, nine catches on 12 targets gives me hope that Gage will carry fantasy value into the future. He earned at least six targets in five games last season, including Atlanta’s final three contests. This Falcons offense is going to throw the ball a lot. It seems like they might have to in order to win games given the inexperience of their secondary. Gage faces another middle-of-the-road secondary next week as Atlanta takes on Dallas. Consider him a potential flex option, with even more value in PPR leagues.

Corey Davis, TEN, WR
You don’t want to overreact to one game, but it seems like Ryan Tannehill and Davis have developed a lot of trust in the offseason. The fourth-year receiver caught seven of his eight targets for 101 yards against the Broncos. With A.J. Brown commanding a lot of attention and teams stacking the box to stop Derrick Henry, Davis could be a huge beneficiary. He will face stiffer tests eventually, but he gets a Jaguars secondary that lacks depth and a very inexperienced Vikings group in his next two games. He has fantasy value this week and going forward.

Paris Campbell, WR, IND
It was unclear how Indianapolis would use its receivers outside of T.Y. Hilton heading into Week 1. Between Campbell, Zach Pascal and Michael Pittman, it seemed like the Colts were almost approaching the WR2 spot by committee. Campbell emerged as the best of those options against a young Jaguars secondary. He posted solid numbers (six catches for 71 yards), and more importantly, tied Hilton with a team-leading nine targets. Clearly, Frank Reich intends to get the ball in Campbell’s hands. He was an intriguing fantasy option a year ago before injuries derailed his rookie season. Minnesota just got torched by Aaron Rodgers and company in Week 1 and that is who Campbell and Indy will face next. Consider him a low-end WR2 option for this week and a solid flex consideration in the future.

Mike Williams, WR, LAC
There were a lot of fantasy managers who dropped Williams after he suffered a preseason shoulder injury. He rewarded those who stuck with him with a solid performance in Week 1. Four catches for 69 yards is not spectacular, but the target share was very promising. He had nine targets from Tyrod Taylor against the Bengals. Williams is a major red zone option as well, so he carries additional upside. He faces the Chiefs next, who will likely be without top cornerback Charvarius Ward. Williams will get a young Panthers secondary the week after that. He has a few weeks of really good fantasy viability ahead of him.

Goedert was the No. 10 fantasy tight end in 2019. (Wikimedia Commons)

Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI
If Goedert is available in your league, go get him. He was the top scoring fantasy tight option in PPR formats in Week 1, but was on only 21.8 percent of rosters in ESPN leagues. You can’t count on him to replicate these numbers (eight catches, 101 yards and a TD) consistently, but even if Goedert puts up half as many points per week, he is a tight end worth having in fantasy. With Carson Wentz clearly still favoring his tight ends over wide receivers, Goedert has the potential to be a top-tier fantasy option. His upcoming matchups are not great, but he is still worth stashing on your roster.

Logan Thomas, TE, WAS
A tight end on the other side of this Week 1 matchup is my other top pickups for the week at the position. Thomas hauled in four passes for 37 yards and a touchdown. Now most of his scoring was dependent on that trip to the end zone, but he had a very healthy eight targets in Washington’s season opener. It is clear he has developed a good rapport with Dwayne Haskins. With few other reliable pass catching options outside of Terry McLaurin, Thomas could be a fringe TE1 and carries a ton of value in any league that places a premium on tight end scoring. I can almost guarantee you he is available, as he is currently rostered in just 0.4 percent of ESPN leagues. In Week 2, he faces a Cardinals defense that allowed the most points to opposing tight ends a year ago.