NFL Draft Daily looks at top stories, historical trends, player performances and more all through the lens of the NFL Draft. After all, there are only 35 days until the 2022 NFL draft. Check back in tomorrow for another entry.
The past few weeks in the NFL are like nothing ever seen before. Massive trades with league-altering implications are occurring on a daily basis. Record deals are being signed at every step. Welcome to the league’s version of March Madness. One of the most interesting trends in all of these moves has to do with the wide receiver position.
Miami gave Hill $72 million in guaranteed money as part of his new deal. (Wikimedia Commons)
Tyreek Hill became the latest NFL superstar to be traded and the deal highlights the growing divide between two schools of thought as it pertains to the value of wide receivers. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest moves we’ve seen this offseason involving receivers.
Los Angeles made the move to keep Mike Williams in house. The Chargers offered him a three-year, $60-million deal to do so. That contract makes him the sixth highest paid receiver by annual average, tied with Chris Godwin and Amari Cooper. Los Angeles now has two of the top six highest paid receivers in the NFL. Keenan Allen makes just a shade over $20 million per year himself. Jacksonville shocked everyone the following week by splashing out $84 million to sign Christian Kirk. The deal included $37 million in guaranteed money and made Kirk the 10th-highest paid receiver in the league on average. He has yet to reach 1,000 yards receiving in one season in his career.
Shortly after Kirk signed with Jacksonville, Dallas shipped Amari Cooper to Cleveland in what mostly amounted to a salary dump. The Cowboys received a fifth-round pick and swapped sixth-round picks with the Browns to complete the deal. Say what you want about Cooper, but he is a four-time Pro Bowl with five 1,000-yard seasons in his career. He will carry a pretty sizable cap hit in 2023 and 2024, but teams typically have a way of restructuring those to minimize that cap hit.
Since entering the league in 2014, Adams has the second-most touchdown catches, trailing only Mike Evans. (Wikimedia Commons)
Then, a week ago, the Raiders reunited Davante Adams with his college quarterback Derek Carr. They sent a first- and second-round pick to Green Bay in order to land him. They promptly made him the highest-paid receiver in the league with a five-year $140-million pact. That benchmarked lasted less than a week.
Wednesday saw the Dolphins acquire Hill for five draft picks, including their first and second rounder for this year. Hill wanted to be the highest paid receiver in the league. He got the same amount of money as Adams, but he earns it in one year less. Hill’s new annual average is $30 million.
What I find really interesting is the two competing schools of thought on the wide receiver position right now. On one hand, you have a handful of teams that are willing to pay big money and premium draft capital to bring in proven veterans. On the other, you have teams willing to move on from proven receivers in an effort to save cap space and recoup draft picks. ESPN NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid recently said he could see the wide receiver position treated much like running backs are in the NFL: It is important to have a good one, but you don’t need to overpay to keep them. I think I might be coming around to this line of thinking.
We have seen some phenomenal receiver classes come out in the past few years. 2019 was thought to be a weaker group, but D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Diontae Johnson and Hunter Renfrow all went in the middle rounds. 2020 produced Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney. 2021 was not quite as prolific, but was headlined by Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith. If Amon-Ra St. Brown, Elijah Moore and Rashod Bateman take the next step this upcoming season, it could be another special draft class.
2022 is shaping up to be another impressive class. Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams and Treylon Burks are all widely considered first-round prospects. Christian Watson and George Pickens could crash the first-round party as well. There is depth beyond that top group as well, as has been the case with each of the previous three draft classes.
Chase accounted for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns in his rookie season. (Wikimedia Commons)
The point is, it seems like we are entering the golden age of young receivers. Jefferson, Chase, Metcalf, and Samuel are unquestionably among the top 10 in the game. Brown, Lamb, Waddle, Smith, McLaurin, Higgins and Johnson are all in the top 25 at the position. Every one of those guys is currently on their rookie contract.
You don’t necessarily have to spend big to have elite talent at the position. Look at Stefon Diggs and Cooper Kupp. They’ve been two of the best receivers in the NFL over the past two years. They make about half what Hill and Adams are set to make on an annual basis. They could also be due for big raises if this is how much elite receivers are making on the open market.
Let’s be clear, having and paying an elite receiver can be a winning strategy. The Chiefs won a Super Bowl with Hill. The Buccaneers won a Super Bowl with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. That being said, if we are going to start seeing teams paying quarterback-level money to wide receivers, it is hard to see that trend continuing.
It might work in Miami and Los Angeles, where they have quarterbacks on their rookie contracts. But for the Raiders, there is a good chance that having to pay both Derek Carr and Davante Adams is going to put a pretty big squeeze on where they can build the rest of their roster. Especially without a first or second-round pick this season.
There are exceptions to every rule though. Adams, Hill, Kupp, Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins are all game-changing players and likely worth the investment. The same is true for running backs with Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey (when healthy), Nick Chubb and Dalvin Cook.
What I think we are going to see is a decline in interest in the middle class of receivers. Paying for elite talent makes sense. Paying guys like Kenny Golladay, Christian Kirk, Robby Anderson, Corey Davis and Michael Gallup likely won’t be worth the investment when you can find replacement level players or better in the draft. That sentiment is true of every position, I just think we are going to start to see it applied more with receivers. It will be a very interesting trend to watch and one that will be greatly impacted by how well the Raiders, Dolphins, Packers, Chiefs and Chargers do in 2022.
Follow the Aftermath via email to get every article delivered right to your inbox. Enter your email in the text box to subscribe. You can also follow us on Facebook and Twitter. You can also check out our weekly podcast Draft Season Never Ends with new episodes every Friday, available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube.
NFL Draft Daily looks at top stories, historical trends, player performances and more all through the lens of the NFL Draft. After all, there are only 36 days until the 2022 NFL draft. Check back in tomorrow for another entry.
Ed Reed. Troy Polumalu. Ronnie Lott. Ken Houston. Paul Krause. In some order, those are arguably the five greatest safeties in NFL history. Maybe throw Steve Atwater in there, too. All of them are Hall of Famers. Sean Taylor probably would have gotten there if he had not been tragically killed only four years into his career. They were incredible, game-changing players in the league.
Why am I bringing up these legendary safeties? That’s because Kyle Hamilton is one of the top draft prospects in 2022, and based on the hype, it seems like he could be the next Hall of Fame-caliber safety in the NFL. At least, that is what I would expect for a player many are saying should be drafted as early as No. 2 overall by the Lions. This isn’t some random draft analyst either. Mel Kiper Jr. had him at No. 2 in his latest mock draft. The question is: is a safety worthy of such an early selection in the NFL draft?
The last time we had a safety drafted in the top five, it was Eric Berry back in 2010. Berry was a good player for a long time, but is debatable whether he was worth a top-five selection. That level of scrutiny is a very high bar to clear and puts a ton of expectation to put on Hamilton the moment he steps into the league.
There are certainly cautionary tales out there for not drafting a safety in the top 10. Jamal Adams went sixth overall in 2017. It wasn’t necessarily a bad pick, especially when you consider that the Jets netted two first-round picks and Bradley McDougald when they traded him to the Seahawks in 2020. That being said, I chalk that up to bad process on the side of Seattle, who mortgaged its future to acquire a player that was a total liability in pass coverage. Essentially, the Seahawks bailed the Jets out. I definitely believe that trade is a big part of the reason Russell Wilson is no longer with the team.
The difference with Hamilton is that he can cover. He plays fast, has good ball skills and a solid understanding over coverage responsibilities. Actually, just watch the play below to see what I’m talking about:
Hamilton is the complete package. At 6’4″, 220 pounds, he is built like a modern day linebacker, but he has better coverage skills than just about any linebacker in the game. There are some small concerns about his health after he missed a good chunk of his final season due to a knee injury. He also posted a less than stellar 4.59 40-yard dash time at the combine, which is below average for safeties.
There is no question Hamilton is a really good prospect. He is one of the best in this class and one of the best safety prospects ever. However, the positional value for a safety in the NFL right now simply is not high enough for me to feel comfortable taking him in the top five. I had the Jets selected him with the 10th in my most recent mock draft. I’m not the only one struggling with this. Daniel Jeremiah projected Hamilton to slide to 11th, landing with the Commanders, in his latest mock draft. While comparing Hamilton to other top safety prospects is a bit tricky given how different he is from Adams and how much the game has changed since Taylor played, let’s take a different approach.
Over the past few drafts, there have been a couple different highly-rated prospects at positions that the league does not value as highly (think running backs, interior offensive linemen). It’s a bit too early if Kyle Pitts was worth the fourth overall pick in 2021. He became the highest drafted tight end ever and the first to go in the top six picks since Vernon Davis in 2006. We will have to revisit that one in a few years.
Before that, we can go back to 2018. Saquon Barkley went second overall and without question that was a terrible pick. Even with how talented and game-changing he can be when healthy, there is simply not enough value in drafting a running back that early in the draft. New York passed on a number of quarterbacks, including Josh Allen, and a very talented edge rusher in Bradley Chubb. Needless to say, New York would have been much better off heading in a different direction and opting for a player that played at a more valuable position. Finding starting running backs rarely requires teams to spend a first round pick these days. Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon and Jonathan Taylor all went in the second round or later.
The 2018 draft provides us another interesting comparison point for Hamilton. That draft also produced Quenton Nelson, one of the best interior linemen prospects ever who faced many of the same questions Hamilton is facing now. He went sixth overall to the Colts and he has not disappointed. He has missed just three games across four seasons en route to four Pro Bowl selections and three first-team All-Pro honors. He is in line to become the highest paid interior lineman in NFL history whenever he signs his next contract. Without question, Indianapolis got more than enough value from drafting Nelson in that slot.
Once again though, that is an incredibly high bar to reach. Nelson essentially stepped into the NFL and was instantly one of the best guards in the league, if not the best. I don’t know if we will be able to say the same thing about Hamilton. He might get there in a few years. I also personally value interior offensive linemen over safeties, but the gap between them is not overly significant.
Bottom line, I think I would feel comfortable drafting Hamilton around sixth overall or later, but I can also understand if he does not come off the board until somewhere in the 10-to-12 range. I know my assessment does not really mean much, but I do think this will be a really interesting case study for future drafts. If Hamilton is not one of the best players at the position within his first three seasons, there will be a narrative about how you cannot draft safeties that early. Fair or not, that is the pressure and paradox facing teams right now when evaluating Hamilton in this draft class.
Follow the Aftermath via email to get every article delivered right to your inbox. Enter your email in the text box to subscribe. You can also follow us on Facebook and Twitter. You can also check out our weekly podcast Draft Season Never Ends with new episodes every Friday, available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube.
NFL Draft Daily looks at top stories, historical trends, player performances and more all through the lens of the NFL Draft. After all, there are only 37 days until the 2022 NFL draft. Check back in tomorrow for another entry.
We are drawing closer and closer to the 2022 NFL draft. The NFL offseason has given us plenty of clues as to what might happen come April 28th, especially in the past week as three different first-round selections were traded. Deshaun Watson is a Brown. Russell Wilson is a Bronco. Carson Wentz is a Commander. Tom Brady is back. Aaron Rodgers is staying with the Packers. Matt Ryan is a Colt. Yup. That has all happened since last Sunday, and those are just the quarterbacks.
With the combine and Senior Bowl in the books, we have a ton more information about these prospects than we did the last time I put together a mock draft. It is interesting to sort through the numbers that are significant and the ones that can be dismissed as nothing to worry about. Free agency has had a major impact on team needs across the league as well.
With all of that in mind, let’s dive into my latest mock as we approach the one month mark in the countdown to the 2022 NFL draft.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-14) – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan After franchise tagging Cam Robinson and signing Brandon Scherff, Jacksonville frees itself up to take the best player available. Pairing Hutchinson with Josh Allen would give the Jaguars a lethal pass rush off the edge and something to build their entire defense around. They can always grab a tackle at pick No. 33 as well to help bolster the offensive line.
2. Detroit Lions (3-13-1) – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon The Lions actually have a good problem here. They have two great tackles, so Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu aren’t really in play here. I think this is actually a good spot for the Lions to trade down from, maybe with the Giants or Panthers, who both have big needs at offensive tackle. I know that Thibodeaux’s draft stock has slipped a bit in recent weeks, but I still see a dynamic edge rusher with tons of potential. Detroit would get a player at a position of need and an incredibly valuable one.
3. Houston Texans (4-13) – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama Houston finally knows how it can move forward with the Deshaun Watson situation finally resolved. Well, at least it is as far as the Texans are concerned. With an extra first-round pick in the next three drafts, Houston can start to rebuild a roster in desperate need of more talent. With Laremy Tunsil already on one side, Neal would give the Texans two good bookends to work with. Whether Davis Mills is the answer or not, this sets up the offensive line for long-term success. Neal has experience playing on the right side as well, so this wouldn’t be a huge change for him.
4. New York Jets (4-13) – Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati Go ahead and grab the best lockdown corner your organization has had since Darelle Revis. I don’t know if Gardner will quite reach that level, but he does compare well to another former Jets corner in Antonio Cromartie. He is long and physical with more than enough speed to thrive in the NFL. He would give New York a really strong, and young, cornerback room.
5. New York Giants (4-13) – Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State Daniel Jones probably isn’t the answer long term, but the best way to find out is to protect him. Ekwonu is one of the best athletes in the draft, which is saying something. He still has more room to grow with his technique as a blocker and footwork, but the power he brings to the table is incredibly enticing. He and Andrew Thomas would certainly make life easier for Saquon Barkely, too.
6. Carolina Panthers (5-12) – Malik Willis, QB, Liberty With how the first-round has played out so far, this is a really tough spot for the Panthers. This is too early for Charles Cross in my eyes. They don’t need a cornerback right now after drafting Jaycee Horn last year and bringing back Donte Jackson. This is a bit earlier than I think a quarterback should probably go, but Carolina needs one badly. Sam Darnold is not the answer. Neither is Cam Newton. Willis is a project, no question about it. However, he has elite physical tools and by all accounts is an incredibly high character player. I can see him finding long-term success with this team. This will be a tough sell for Matt Rhule, who is unquestionably coaching for his job this season. Willis is definitely not a plug-and-play option.
7. New York Giants via Chicago Bears (6-11) – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU The buzz right now is that James Bradberry could be on his way out in New York. If the Giants do in fact trade or release their top corner, they will need someone to start across from Adoree’ Jackson on the outside. Stingley has some red flags given his medical past, but his top-end potential is the best player in this draft class. If he comes anywhere close to his 2019 form, this will be a slam dunk addition for the Giants.
8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) – Drake London, WR, USC Matt Ryan is gone, but there are no quarterbacks worth taking at this spot. Calvin Ridley also won’t be playing in 2022. Russell Gage is headed for Tampa Bay. Atlanta desperately needs an outside receiver. Drake London was putting up video game-like numbers before suffering an ankle injury. He is tall and has long arms to catch the ball away from his body. I think he can have a Mike Evans-type impact on an offense. Arthur Smith also has a good track record with big, physical receivers.
9. Seattle Seahawks via Denver Broncos (7-10) – Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia Seattle is in a very different spot than it was the last time I published a mock draft. Russell Wilson is gone, along with defensive stalwarts Bobby Wagner and Carlos Dunlap. Duane Brown is still a free-agent. There are a lot of directions the Seahawks could head with this pick. Landing an athletic pass rusher who can drop into coverage and play the run seems like a good place to start. Walker’s stock is on the rise. He had a phenomenal combine and some impressive tape. He won’t change Seattle’s fortunes immediately, but it is a good start.
10. New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks (7-10) – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame Jets fans might be skeptical of taking another safety with a premium draft pick, but Hamilton is not like Jamal Adams. Hamilton is big, fast and great in open space. His coverage ability is what sets him apart from Adams. With Marcus Maye now in New Orleans, New York desperately needs someone to step into that role. Adding Gardner and Hamilton would give the secondary a full makeover.
11. Washington Football Team (7-10) – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State With Carson Wentz now on board, Washington has to do everything it can to put him in a position to be successful. Adding a talented route runner with impressive speed would give the Commanders a fantastic duo to roll out. Wilson and Terry McLaruin would be an exciting one-two pairing, especially with Dyami Brown playing out of the slot and stretching the field.
12. Minnesota Vikings (8-9) – Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State The Vikings have already plugged a few holes on their defense this offseason, signing Jordan Hicks and Harrison Phillips. They still need a plan out on the edge across from Danielle Hunter. Minnesota already tried to move Hunter once, so it is no guarantee he will be there long term either. Jermaine Johnson is an incredible run defender with room to grow as a pass rusher. He tested well at the combine and cleaned up during Senior Bowl week. If he can develop as a pass rusher, this will be a steal. Editor’s note: the Vikings have since signed former Packers pass rusher Za’Darius Smith.
13. Houston Texans via Cleveland Browns (8-9) – Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia Building in the trenches. That seems to be the mantra echoing from the Texans front office this offseason. After taking a mountain of a man in Evan Neal with their first pick, Houston grabs another big body to transform their defensive line. Jordan Davis is an athletic monster with incredible speed for a man his size. He plugs up the middle against the run and is capable of collapsing the pocket on passing downs.
14. Baltimore Ravens (8-9) – Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa With Bradley Bozeman now in Carolina, the Ravens need to find a replacement, especially after Lamar Jackson spent much of 2022 scrambling from the pass rush. Linderbaum could be a perfect fit here. He is a bit undersized, but he has excellent movement skills and a bit of nastiness to him as a run blocker. With a mobile quarterback like Jackson, having someone to block in space could be very useful.
15. Philadelphia Eagles via Miami Dolphins (9-8) – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah With three first-round picks, this could finally be the year the Eagles draft a linebacker. I think it should be. Devin Lloyd is a versatile option who can blitz off the edge and plug up the middle. He has really good range and checks all the physical boxes you expect from a modern linebacker. He would be an improvement over basically everyone the Eagles currently have under contract.
16. Philadelphia Eagles via Indianapolis Colts (9-8) – David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan The Achilles injury for Ojabo is really unfortunate and of course concerning. He will likely be slow-played for much of his rookie season as a result. That being said, the Eagles have the benefit of multiple first-round selections. They can afford to take a chance on a player with tremendous upside and great physical traits. Philly also really needs an upgrade on the edge.
17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8) – DeVonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia Quickly becoming one of my favorite players in this draft class, Wyatt stands out whenever you watch the Georgia defense. When you consider that I have four other former Bulldogs in the first-round in this mock, that should let you know how special he is. He is relentless in his pursuit of the ball and he can get after it as a pass rusher. He lacks elite length, but his burst usually gives him an edge. He would create a scary setup alongside Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.
18. New Orleans Saints (9-8) – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State This is assuming that Terron Armstead does not return to the Saints this season. If he does, Cross won’t be the pick. With Armstead out, Cross would step in to protect Jameis Winston’s blindside. Cross has faced more pass rushing snaps in the past season than many tackle prospects do in their college careers. He will be ready to anchor in pass pro, even if he does over set on occasion. His lack of tape as a run blocker is a bit of a risk, but his body type makes me believe he develop in that space.
19. Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State Another year, another receiver for the Eagles. While they seem to have hit on last year’s pick in DeVonta Smith, the former Heisman winner could use some help. Olave can take the top off a defense. He is a smooth operator in open space as well. Philadelphia seems serious about giving Jalen Hurts a chance to succeed. Finding him as many weapons to grow with is the best way forward.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) – Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M It is unlikely Mitch Trubisky is the long-term answer at quarterback for the Steelers. However, reaching on a quarterback is a really good way to get fired. Instead, Pittsburgh continues to rebuild its offensive line with one of the best interior linemen in this draft class. Green even has some experience at tackle, only adding to his value. It feels like there are not enough resources for the Steelers to throw at their offensive line given how bad it was a year ago.
21. New England Patriots (10-7) – Quay Walker, LB, Georgia Yet another former Georgia player I am very high on. Walker is big and long and fast. Three things Bill Belichick covets in linebackers. He has true sideline-to-sideline range and can drop into coverage well. The Pats could head a different direction if they bring back Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins, but right now, linebacker is a clear need.
22. Green Bay Packers via Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama This move would help take some of the sting off no longer having Davante Adams. Green Bay has a wide receiver room full of complementary players. Williams has a chance to be the leader of the group if he can regain his pre-injury form. With impressive speed and agility, he can be a game-changer. He does have some drops on tape, which is a concern. If can minimize the negative plays, this has the potential to be a great new partnership for the Packers.
23. Arizona Cardinals (11-6) – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue Inside linebacker is set for Arizona. Outside linebacker is very fluid at the moment. At worst, Karlaftis would be a situational pass rusher on a team that just lost Chandler Jones in free agency. Ideally, the former Purdue star steps in and takes a starting role. He is very gifted, but has to improve when it comes to reading his keys.
24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) – Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson Wide receiver is certainly an option after sending Amari Cooper to Cleveland, but there is depth in this receiver class. Instead, Dallas opts for a bigger corner to start opposite Trevon Diggs. Booth unfortunately did not test at the combine, where I really think he could have boosted his stock. His film shows a player capable of making some important plays on balls down the field and enough speed to be a capable NFL starter.
25. Buffalo Bills (11-6) –Zion Johnson, G, Boston College Josh Allen has taken a beating in recent years mostly due to poor interior offensive line play. Zion Johnson has a chance to change all of that. He is a plug and play option with tons of experience. In this scenario, he would slot in at left guard and provide some stability at the position. His athleticism gives him a really high ceiling to reach in the NFL.
26. Tennessee Titans (12-5) – Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia The Titans took the edge of their need at wide receiver by trading for Robert Woods. That allows the address one of the biggest holes on their defense by tabbing Dean. Dean is an instinctive playmaker. He attacks downhill and is a great situation blitzer. He is definitely a bit undersized, but he has the speed to drop into coverage, making him a true three-down player. With Jayon Brown and Rashaan Evans both still unsigned, Dean would help soften the blow if neither of them return.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)– Bernhard Raimann, OL, Central Michigan Ali Marpet surprised a lot of people when he retired at the age of 28. Holding out hope that he pulls a Tom Brady and returns to the team is probably irresponsible team building. Raimann is a former tight end who has spent the past two seasons learning to play offensive line. He doesn’t have the measurables to continue playing tackle in the NFL, but he is stout and physical. He should be in contention to start at left guard from Day 1 in Tampa Bay.
28. Green Bay Packers (13-4) – Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa Green Bay’s offensive line has quietly deteriorated over the past few seasons. David Bakhtiari has struggled to stay healthy. Right tackle has been a revolving door. Adding Penning gives the Packers some insurance if Bakhtiari gets hurt again and a potential long-term answer at right tackle. He is a hulking figure at 6’7″, 325 pounds. He has good athleticism too for a man his size.
29. Miami Dolphins via San Francisco 49ers (10-7) – Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE, Penn State This pick is solely about projection. Ebiketie might seem a bit undersized, but he has long arms, big hands and good burst off the edge. The former Temple transfer built on his success in AAC by posting 9.5 sacks in 2021 while playing against Big Ten competition. He is still relatively new to football after discovering the game as a sophomore in high school. I believe he will take the next step in his development in the NFL and turn into a dynamic pass rusher.
30. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) –Darian Kinnard, OL, Kentucky The Chiefs found another weapon for Patrick Mahomes to work with when they signed JuJu Smith-Schuster. Now they need to make sure Mahomes is standing long enough to get him the ball. The Chargers have Bosa and Mack. The Raiders have Crosby and Chandler. The Broncos have Gregory and Chubb. Kansas City better have a plan for right tackle. Kinnard can step in and provide some nastiness on the right side of the line. He has tremendous length and heavy hands. He is not the most athletic prospect of all time, but he should help anchor down the right side of the line next to Trey Smith.
31. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) – Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington After bolstering their offensive line in free agency, Cincinnati can turn its attention to the defense. McDuffie is a bit undersized, but he has the closing speed and physicality you want to see from a starting corner. He notably did not allow a touchdown in 2021 and is credited for playing bigger than his size. Those are two good signs for him in the NFL. Even after hitting on Chidobe Awuzie, there is still room for some more talent in the Bengals cornerback room. After all, the AFC is loaded with talented quarterbacks.
32. Detroit Lions via Los Angeles (12-5) – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas I strongly considered a quarterback here, but I think Detroit is more interested in building the framework for Jared Goff and whoever succeeds him down the line. Treylon Burks is a physical playmaker who can stretch the field and make plays in the red zone. He has good initial burst, even if he lacks elite long speed. His three cone was a bit of a red flag, but his long arms should allow him to make contested catches even if he cannot generate a ton of separation. Look for him to form a solid young tandem with Amon-Ra St. Brown.
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NFL Draft Daily looks at top stories, historical trends, player performances and more all through the lens of the NFL Draft. After all, there are only 38 days until the 2022 NFL draft. Check back in tomorrow for another entry.
The Browns sent a seismic shock through the NFL as they sent three first-round picks to the Texans to acquire Deshaun Watson. Watson, who is facing civil lawsuits from 22 women alleging sexual assault and harassment, has not played since 2020. He demanded a trade from the Texans prior to the 2021 season. He sat out the entire season once the allegations about his misconduct surfaced. Now, he is poised to be the franchise quarterback in Cleveland for at least the next five years after signing a full-guaranteed, five-year, $230 million contract.
I wrote Friday about stunning this decision is given the pending lawsuits against Watson. For the sake of not repeating myself, I won’t completely rehash my feelings on this situation. In short, it is risky, despicable and disheartening that Cleveland was willing to overlook the allegations of 22 different women against Watson.
There are three clear messages the Browns sent by making this move. The first is that they simply do not view these allegations as serious and are much more infatuated with Watson’s ability on the football field. Quarterback is the most important position in football, particularly in the NFL. Cleveland already had Baker Mayfield, whom they drafted No. 1 overall one year after passing on Watson, twice. While Mayfield certainly has his drawbacks, he did lead the Browns to their first playoff victory since 1994. An injury-plagued season saw him fall out of favor with the front office. Cleveland viewed Watson as such an improvement over Mayfield, it was willing to tank Mayfield’s trade value by acquiring Watson before moving him. The Browns also paid a price rarely seen in terms of draft capital to acquire Watson. You can only imagine what the asking price for him might have been if he was not potentially a sexual predator. The bottom line: upgrading at the quarterback position is worth whatever price must be paid.
The second message is also pretty obvious: the Browns do not believe in Baker Mayfield long term. After four seasons, Cleveland was willing to move on from the former Heisman winner. Mayfield’s career numbers aren’t bad. He has averaged 23 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions and roughly 3,500 passing yards per season. Those are figures many NFL teams would be happy with, but pale in comparison to the league’s elite.
It is hard to argue if Mayfield is truly to blame. After all, he joined the Browns following an 0-16 season. He also played four four different head coaches, including one interim, in his four seasons. Not exactly the stability most teams desire when looking to develop a young quarterback. We’ve also seen that the latest iteration of the Browns offense might not be the most pass-friendly. Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry were both run out of town because they could not perform in it. At a certain point, you have to wonder about who really deserves the blame for Mayfield falling short of expectations. That being said, Mayfield will almost definitely have an opportunity to start somewhere this season.
Finally, this whole process speaks volumes about how the Browns viewed the other quarterbacks available this season, in free agency, on the trade market and, most importantly, in the NFL draft. How this Watson trade played out gives us a really interesting glimpse into how the Browns felt about Mayfield in comparison to other available quarterbacks. Mayfield requested a trade even after it initially looked like Cleveland’s pursuit of Watson did not pan out. Reports then surfaced that the Browns were not willing to grant that request in hopes of mending the relationship with Mayfield.
What this tells us is that the front office was comfortable sticking with Mayfield if it could not land Watson (or perhaps Aaron Rodgers, had he become available). They viewed him as a better option than Carson Wentz, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo or any of the prospects in this draft class. Whether or not the rest of the league agrees with that is unclear, but take a moment to think about the teams that have been linked to Watson or other quarterback moves made this offseason. Washington was in position to draft a quarterback, but opted for Wentz. Carolina could have its pick of the group, but wanted Watson, Russell Wilson or pretty much anyone else. Same can be said for Denver, who landed Wilson. New Orleans just re-signed Winston.
It seems like no teams are interested in this 2022 quarterback class. I have to imagine Seattle, Carolina and Indianapolis will be prime suitors for Mayfield and Garoppolo. That being said, one of them is going to be left without a clear starting option. At that point, the Seahawks might entertain signing Colin Kaepernick, who has not played in the league since 2016, over drafted a rookie to start this season.
Don’t get me wrong, some of these guys will get drafted early. Detroit is rumored to like Malik Willis a lot and has the perfect situation for him to essentially redshirt a year before taking over as the starter. The Steelers and Falcons will be searching for long-term solutions at the position. I don’t think Atlanta takes one at No. 8, but perhaps it could trade back into the end of the first round.
We’ve long known this is not a popular quarterback class in the league or in the media. I think we are now starting to understand just how little teams think of this crop of prospects. April is going to be very interesting.
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Wilson is 104-53-1 in his career as a starting quarterback. (Wikimedia Commons)
Talk about a blockbuster trade. Hours after Aaron Rodgers signed the richest contract in NFL history, at least on an annual salary basis, to stay in Green Bay, the Seahawks traded Russell Wilson to the Broncos. The man who once beat Denver in a Super Bowl will now be tasked with winning the franchise’s fourth title. It is a league-altering deal that turns the AFC West into the toughest division in football; maybe even one of the greatest divisions in NFL history. Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Derek Carr and Wilson will all now face off twice a year. In the era of a 14-team playoff, don’t be shocked if all four teams reach the postseason in 2022.
This move can be described as nothing other than shocking. Trading a franchise quarterback is a massive decision with endless implications and there is no guarantee that you will find another one. Yes, the Seahawks had a down year in 2021. That coincided with a serious injury to Wilson and a general drop off in defensive productivity. Prior to that, Seattle had been to the playoffs all but one season under Wilson and won a Super Bowl back in 2014. They should have won a second in 2015, but we all know what happened there.
Beyond that, finding a franchise quarterback can prove incredibly difficult. Ask the Dolphins. Or Jets. Or Lions. Or Jaguars. Or Giants. Or Browns. You get the point. Moving on from Wilson at 33 years old is a bold move. Perhaps this front office has confidence in itself to find “the next Russell Wilson” so to speak. Wilson was a third-round pick who developed into a star and could very well end his career with a gold jacket. Just a quick reminder though that in 2011, Tavaris Jackson was the Seahawks starting quarterback and the team signed Matt Flynn to start in 2012 before hitting on Wilson.
Lock struggled in his three years with Denver, throwing 25 touchdowns and 20 interceptions while completing fewer than 60% of his passes. (Wikimedia Commons)
So how does Seattle move forward without Russell Wilson? The Seahawks acquired Drew Lock as part of the trade with the Broncos. He will join Geno Smith in a very underwhelming quarterback room. As of now, you would expect those two to compete for the starting job in 2022. That being said, the team now has $46 million in cap space and a plethora of draft picks to work with to address the quarterback position.
The problem is, this is one of the worst quarterback classes in recent memory. On the heels of a quarterback class that produced five picks in the first 15 selections, 2022 pales in comparison. Malik Willis turned some heads at the combine, but is still largely a project. Kenny Pickett has the smallest hands of any draft prospect in decades. Matt Corral has some uneven tape and is coming off an ankle injury. Desmond Ridder, Carson Strong, Bailey Zappe and Sam Howell all have some question marks. That doesn’t mean that one of them won’t turn out to be a quality starter, but it’s hard to feel overly confident in the group as a whole.
Free agency also feels unlikely with Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota and Mitchell Trubisky among the top players on the market. It would probably be better to ride out 2022 with Smith and Lock. Maybe you roll the dice on Winston, but all of them feel like marginal upgrades.
Bottom line, Seattle is unlikely to find its quarterback of the future this year. Here’s the important part: that’s okay! The Seahawks are heading into a rebuild. It has the potential to be a short one, but it will be a rebuild. In a division that boasts the 49ers, Rams and Cardinals, it is hard to pencil Seattle anywhere other than fourth right now. They need to find a pass rusher, depth at receiver, stability on the offensive line and a true No. 1 corner. That’s a lot to do in one year.
However, this added draft capital allows them to restock their roster with young players on affordable contracts. They already landed two talented young players in Noah Fant and Shelby Harris as part of this deal as well. With the No. 9 pick in this draft, Seattle can target an offensive tackle or cornerback. Then, with two first round picks in 2023 (theirs and Denver’s), they can be aggressive in moving up to acquire one of the top prospects in the 2023 draft. Presumably, they will be picking between Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. As of now, they are one of three teams with multiple first-round selections in 2023, joining the Lions and Dolphins.
I know it is way too early to start projecting 2023 draft picks. The point is, there is a path back to relevancy in Seattle that may only take two to three years. It is still a major risk. Heading into this past college football season, Sam Howell, Spencer Rattler and Kedon Slovis all seemed like locks to go in the top 10. Now, one might go at the end of the first round and the other two are still in college after losing their starting jobs. Trying to predict the future can get you in trouble pretty quickly in the NFL. Let’s make it clear: Seattle has two years to find its new franchise quarterback, otherwise this trade is going to go down as a bust.
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