NFL Draft Daily looks at top stories, historical trends, player performances and more all through the lens of the NFL Draft. After all, there are only 36 days until the 2022 NFL draft. Check back in tomorrow for another entry.
Ed Reed. Troy Polumalu. Ronnie Lott. Ken Houston. Paul Krause. In some order, those are arguably the five greatest safeties in NFL history. Maybe throw Steve Atwater in there, too. All of them are Hall of Famers. Sean Taylor probably would have gotten there if he had not been tragically killed only four years into his career. They were incredible, game-changing players in the league.
Why am I bringing up these legendary safeties? That’s because Kyle Hamilton is one of the top draft prospects in 2022, and based on the hype, it seems like he could be the next Hall of Fame-caliber safety in the NFL. At least, that is what I would expect for a player many are saying should be drafted as early as No. 2 overall by the Lions. This isn’t some random draft analyst either. Mel Kiper Jr. had him at No. 2 in his latest mock draft. The question is: is a safety worthy of such an early selection in the NFL draft?
The last time we had a safety drafted in the top five, it was Eric Berry back in 2010. Berry was a good player for a long time, but is debatable whether he was worth a top-five selection. That level of scrutiny is a very high bar to clear and puts a ton of expectation to put on Hamilton the moment he steps into the league.
There are certainly cautionary tales out there for not drafting a safety in the top 10. Jamal Adams went sixth overall in 2017. It wasn’t necessarily a bad pick, especially when you consider that the Jets netted two first-round picks and Bradley McDougald when they traded him to the Seahawks in 2020. That being said, I chalk that up to bad process on the side of Seattle, who mortgaged its future to acquire a player that was a total liability in pass coverage. Essentially, the Seahawks bailed the Jets out. I definitely believe that trade is a big part of the reason Russell Wilson is no longer with the team.
The difference with Hamilton is that he can cover. He plays fast, has good ball skills and a solid understanding over coverage responsibilities. Actually, just watch the play below to see what I’m talking about:
Hamilton is the complete package. At 6’4″, 220 pounds, he is built like a modern day linebacker, but he has better coverage skills than just about any linebacker in the game. There are some small concerns about his health after he missed a good chunk of his final season due to a knee injury. He also posted a less than stellar 4.59 40-yard dash time at the combine, which is below average for safeties.
There is no question Hamilton is a really good prospect. He is one of the best in this class and one of the best safety prospects ever. However, the positional value for a safety in the NFL right now simply is not high enough for me to feel comfortable taking him in the top five. I had the Jets selected him with the 10th in my most recent mock draft. I’m not the only one struggling with this. Daniel Jeremiah projected Hamilton to slide to 11th, landing with the Commanders, in his latest mock draft. While comparing Hamilton to other top safety prospects is a bit tricky given how different he is from Adams and how much the game has changed since Taylor played, let’s take a different approach.
Over the past few drafts, there have been a couple different highly-rated prospects at positions that the league does not value as highly (think running backs, interior offensive linemen). It’s a bit too early if Kyle Pitts was worth the fourth overall pick in 2021. He became the highest drafted tight end ever and the first to go in the top six picks since Vernon Davis in 2006. We will have to revisit that one in a few years.
Before that, we can go back to 2018. Saquon Barkley went second overall and without question that was a terrible pick. Even with how talented and game-changing he can be when healthy, there is simply not enough value in drafting a running back that early in the draft. New York passed on a number of quarterbacks, including Josh Allen, and a very talented edge rusher in Bradley Chubb. Needless to say, New York would have been much better off heading in a different direction and opting for a player that played at a more valuable position. Finding starting running backs rarely requires teams to spend a first round pick these days. Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon and Jonathan Taylor all went in the second round or later.
The 2018 draft provides us another interesting comparison point for Hamilton. That draft also produced Quenton Nelson, one of the best interior linemen prospects ever who faced many of the same questions Hamilton is facing now. He went sixth overall to the Colts and he has not disappointed. He has missed just three games across four seasons en route to four Pro Bowl selections and three first-team All-Pro honors. He is in line to become the highest paid interior lineman in NFL history whenever he signs his next contract. Without question, Indianapolis got more than enough value from drafting Nelson in that slot.
Once again though, that is an incredibly high bar to reach. Nelson essentially stepped into the NFL and was instantly one of the best guards in the league, if not the best. I don’t know if we will be able to say the same thing about Hamilton. He might get there in a few years. I also personally value interior offensive linemen over safeties, but the gap between them is not overly significant.
Bottom line, I think I would feel comfortable drafting Hamilton around sixth overall or later, but I can also understand if he does not come off the board until somewhere in the 10-to-12 range. I know my assessment does not really mean much, but I do think this will be a really interesting case study for future drafts. If Hamilton is not one of the best players at the position within his first three seasons, there will be a narrative about how you cannot draft safeties that early. Fair or not, that is the pressure and paradox facing teams right now when evaluating Hamilton in this draft class.
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NFL Draft Daily looks at top stories, historical trends, player performances and more all through the lens of the NFL Draft. After all, there are only 37 days until the 2022 NFL draft. Check back in tomorrow for another entry.
We are drawing closer and closer to the 2022 NFL draft. The NFL offseason has given us plenty of clues as to what might happen come April 28th, especially in the past week as three different first-round selections were traded. Deshaun Watson is a Brown. Russell Wilson is a Bronco. Carson Wentz is a Commander. Tom Brady is back. Aaron Rodgers is staying with the Packers. Matt Ryan is a Colt. Yup. That has all happened since last Sunday, and those are just the quarterbacks.
With the combine and Senior Bowl in the books, we have a ton more information about these prospects than we did the last time I put together a mock draft. It is interesting to sort through the numbers that are significant and the ones that can be dismissed as nothing to worry about. Free agency has had a major impact on team needs across the league as well.
With all of that in mind, let’s dive into my latest mock as we approach the one month mark in the countdown to the 2022 NFL draft.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-14) – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan After franchise tagging Cam Robinson and signing Brandon Scherff, Jacksonville frees itself up to take the best player available. Pairing Hutchinson with Josh Allen would give the Jaguars a lethal pass rush off the edge and something to build their entire defense around. They can always grab a tackle at pick No. 33 as well to help bolster the offensive line.
2. Detroit Lions (3-13-1) – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon The Lions actually have a good problem here. They have two great tackles, so Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu aren’t really in play here. I think this is actually a good spot for the Lions to trade down from, maybe with the Giants or Panthers, who both have big needs at offensive tackle. I know that Thibodeaux’s draft stock has slipped a bit in recent weeks, but I still see a dynamic edge rusher with tons of potential. Detroit would get a player at a position of need and an incredibly valuable one.
3. Houston Texans (4-13) – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama Houston finally knows how it can move forward with the Deshaun Watson situation finally resolved. Well, at least it is as far as the Texans are concerned. With an extra first-round pick in the next three drafts, Houston can start to rebuild a roster in desperate need of more talent. With Laremy Tunsil already on one side, Neal would give the Texans two good bookends to work with. Whether Davis Mills is the answer or not, this sets up the offensive line for long-term success. Neal has experience playing on the right side as well, so this wouldn’t be a huge change for him.
4. New York Jets (4-13) – Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati Go ahead and grab the best lockdown corner your organization has had since Darelle Revis. I don’t know if Gardner will quite reach that level, but he does compare well to another former Jets corner in Antonio Cromartie. He is long and physical with more than enough speed to thrive in the NFL. He would give New York a really strong, and young, cornerback room.
5. New York Giants (4-13) – Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State Daniel Jones probably isn’t the answer long term, but the best way to find out is to protect him. Ekwonu is one of the best athletes in the draft, which is saying something. He still has more room to grow with his technique as a blocker and footwork, but the power he brings to the table is incredibly enticing. He and Andrew Thomas would certainly make life easier for Saquon Barkely, too.
6. Carolina Panthers (5-12) – Malik Willis, QB, Liberty With how the first-round has played out so far, this is a really tough spot for the Panthers. This is too early for Charles Cross in my eyes. They don’t need a cornerback right now after drafting Jaycee Horn last year and bringing back Donte Jackson. This is a bit earlier than I think a quarterback should probably go, but Carolina needs one badly. Sam Darnold is not the answer. Neither is Cam Newton. Willis is a project, no question about it. However, he has elite physical tools and by all accounts is an incredibly high character player. I can see him finding long-term success with this team. This will be a tough sell for Matt Rhule, who is unquestionably coaching for his job this season. Willis is definitely not a plug-and-play option.
7. New York Giants via Chicago Bears (6-11) – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU The buzz right now is that James Bradberry could be on his way out in New York. If the Giants do in fact trade or release their top corner, they will need someone to start across from Adoree’ Jackson on the outside. Stingley has some red flags given his medical past, but his top-end potential is the best player in this draft class. If he comes anywhere close to his 2019 form, this will be a slam dunk addition for the Giants.
8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) – Drake London, WR, USC Matt Ryan is gone, but there are no quarterbacks worth taking at this spot. Calvin Ridley also won’t be playing in 2022. Russell Gage is headed for Tampa Bay. Atlanta desperately needs an outside receiver. Drake London was putting up video game-like numbers before suffering an ankle injury. He is tall and has long arms to catch the ball away from his body. I think he can have a Mike Evans-type impact on an offense. Arthur Smith also has a good track record with big, physical receivers.
9. Seattle Seahawks via Denver Broncos (7-10) – Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia Seattle is in a very different spot than it was the last time I published a mock draft. Russell Wilson is gone, along with defensive stalwarts Bobby Wagner and Carlos Dunlap. Duane Brown is still a free-agent. There are a lot of directions the Seahawks could head with this pick. Landing an athletic pass rusher who can drop into coverage and play the run seems like a good place to start. Walker’s stock is on the rise. He had a phenomenal combine and some impressive tape. He won’t change Seattle’s fortunes immediately, but it is a good start.
10. New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks (7-10) – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame Jets fans might be skeptical of taking another safety with a premium draft pick, but Hamilton is not like Jamal Adams. Hamilton is big, fast and great in open space. His coverage ability is what sets him apart from Adams. With Marcus Maye now in New Orleans, New York desperately needs someone to step into that role. Adding Gardner and Hamilton would give the secondary a full makeover.
11. Washington Football Team (7-10) – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State With Carson Wentz now on board, Washington has to do everything it can to put him in a position to be successful. Adding a talented route runner with impressive speed would give the Commanders a fantastic duo to roll out. Wilson and Terry McLaruin would be an exciting one-two pairing, especially with Dyami Brown playing out of the slot and stretching the field.
12. Minnesota Vikings (8-9) – Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State The Vikings have already plugged a few holes on their defense this offseason, signing Jordan Hicks and Harrison Phillips. They still need a plan out on the edge across from Danielle Hunter. Minnesota already tried to move Hunter once, so it is no guarantee he will be there long term either. Jermaine Johnson is an incredible run defender with room to grow as a pass rusher. He tested well at the combine and cleaned up during Senior Bowl week. If he can develop as a pass rusher, this will be a steal. Editor’s note: the Vikings have since signed former Packers pass rusher Za’Darius Smith.
13. Houston Texans via Cleveland Browns (8-9) – Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia Building in the trenches. That seems to be the mantra echoing from the Texans front office this offseason. After taking a mountain of a man in Evan Neal with their first pick, Houston grabs another big body to transform their defensive line. Jordan Davis is an athletic monster with incredible speed for a man his size. He plugs up the middle against the run and is capable of collapsing the pocket on passing downs.
14. Baltimore Ravens (8-9) – Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa With Bradley Bozeman now in Carolina, the Ravens need to find a replacement, especially after Lamar Jackson spent much of 2022 scrambling from the pass rush. Linderbaum could be a perfect fit here. He is a bit undersized, but he has excellent movement skills and a bit of nastiness to him as a run blocker. With a mobile quarterback like Jackson, having someone to block in space could be very useful.
15. Philadelphia Eagles via Miami Dolphins (9-8) – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah With three first-round picks, this could finally be the year the Eagles draft a linebacker. I think it should be. Devin Lloyd is a versatile option who can blitz off the edge and plug up the middle. He has really good range and checks all the physical boxes you expect from a modern linebacker. He would be an improvement over basically everyone the Eagles currently have under contract.
16. Philadelphia Eagles via Indianapolis Colts (9-8) – David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan The Achilles injury for Ojabo is really unfortunate and of course concerning. He will likely be slow-played for much of his rookie season as a result. That being said, the Eagles have the benefit of multiple first-round selections. They can afford to take a chance on a player with tremendous upside and great physical traits. Philly also really needs an upgrade on the edge.
17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8) – DeVonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia Quickly becoming one of my favorite players in this draft class, Wyatt stands out whenever you watch the Georgia defense. When you consider that I have four other former Bulldogs in the first-round in this mock, that should let you know how special he is. He is relentless in his pursuit of the ball and he can get after it as a pass rusher. He lacks elite length, but his burst usually gives him an edge. He would create a scary setup alongside Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.
18. New Orleans Saints (9-8) – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State This is assuming that Terron Armstead does not return to the Saints this season. If he does, Cross won’t be the pick. With Armstead out, Cross would step in to protect Jameis Winston’s blindside. Cross has faced more pass rushing snaps in the past season than many tackle prospects do in their college careers. He will be ready to anchor in pass pro, even if he does over set on occasion. His lack of tape as a run blocker is a bit of a risk, but his body type makes me believe he develop in that space.
19. Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State Another year, another receiver for the Eagles. While they seem to have hit on last year’s pick in DeVonta Smith, the former Heisman winner could use some help. Olave can take the top off a defense. He is a smooth operator in open space as well. Philadelphia seems serious about giving Jalen Hurts a chance to succeed. Finding him as many weapons to grow with is the best way forward.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) – Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M It is unlikely Mitch Trubisky is the long-term answer at quarterback for the Steelers. However, reaching on a quarterback is a really good way to get fired. Instead, Pittsburgh continues to rebuild its offensive line with one of the best interior linemen in this draft class. Green even has some experience at tackle, only adding to his value. It feels like there are not enough resources for the Steelers to throw at their offensive line given how bad it was a year ago.
21. New England Patriots (10-7) – Quay Walker, LB, Georgia Yet another former Georgia player I am very high on. Walker is big and long and fast. Three things Bill Belichick covets in linebackers. He has true sideline-to-sideline range and can drop into coverage well. The Pats could head a different direction if they bring back Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins, but right now, linebacker is a clear need.
22. Green Bay Packers via Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama This move would help take some of the sting off no longer having Davante Adams. Green Bay has a wide receiver room full of complementary players. Williams has a chance to be the leader of the group if he can regain his pre-injury form. With impressive speed and agility, he can be a game-changer. He does have some drops on tape, which is a concern. If can minimize the negative plays, this has the potential to be a great new partnership for the Packers.
23. Arizona Cardinals (11-6) – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue Inside linebacker is set for Arizona. Outside linebacker is very fluid at the moment. At worst, Karlaftis would be a situational pass rusher on a team that just lost Chandler Jones in free agency. Ideally, the former Purdue star steps in and takes a starting role. He is very gifted, but has to improve when it comes to reading his keys.
24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) – Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson Wide receiver is certainly an option after sending Amari Cooper to Cleveland, but there is depth in this receiver class. Instead, Dallas opts for a bigger corner to start opposite Trevon Diggs. Booth unfortunately did not test at the combine, where I really think he could have boosted his stock. His film shows a player capable of making some important plays on balls down the field and enough speed to be a capable NFL starter.
25. Buffalo Bills (11-6) –Zion Johnson, G, Boston College Josh Allen has taken a beating in recent years mostly due to poor interior offensive line play. Zion Johnson has a chance to change all of that. He is a plug and play option with tons of experience. In this scenario, he would slot in at left guard and provide some stability at the position. His athleticism gives him a really high ceiling to reach in the NFL.
26. Tennessee Titans (12-5) – Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia The Titans took the edge of their need at wide receiver by trading for Robert Woods. That allows the address one of the biggest holes on their defense by tabbing Dean. Dean is an instinctive playmaker. He attacks downhill and is a great situation blitzer. He is definitely a bit undersized, but he has the speed to drop into coverage, making him a true three-down player. With Jayon Brown and Rashaan Evans both still unsigned, Dean would help soften the blow if neither of them return.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)– Bernhard Raimann, OL, Central Michigan Ali Marpet surprised a lot of people when he retired at the age of 28. Holding out hope that he pulls a Tom Brady and returns to the team is probably irresponsible team building. Raimann is a former tight end who has spent the past two seasons learning to play offensive line. He doesn’t have the measurables to continue playing tackle in the NFL, but he is stout and physical. He should be in contention to start at left guard from Day 1 in Tampa Bay.
28. Green Bay Packers (13-4) – Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa Green Bay’s offensive line has quietly deteriorated over the past few seasons. David Bakhtiari has struggled to stay healthy. Right tackle has been a revolving door. Adding Penning gives the Packers some insurance if Bakhtiari gets hurt again and a potential long-term answer at right tackle. He is a hulking figure at 6’7″, 325 pounds. He has good athleticism too for a man his size.
29. Miami Dolphins via San Francisco 49ers (10-7) – Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE, Penn State This pick is solely about projection. Ebiketie might seem a bit undersized, but he has long arms, big hands and good burst off the edge. The former Temple transfer built on his success in AAC by posting 9.5 sacks in 2021 while playing against Big Ten competition. He is still relatively new to football after discovering the game as a sophomore in high school. I believe he will take the next step in his development in the NFL and turn into a dynamic pass rusher.
30. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) –Darian Kinnard, OL, Kentucky The Chiefs found another weapon for Patrick Mahomes to work with when they signed JuJu Smith-Schuster. Now they need to make sure Mahomes is standing long enough to get him the ball. The Chargers have Bosa and Mack. The Raiders have Crosby and Chandler. The Broncos have Gregory and Chubb. Kansas City better have a plan for right tackle. Kinnard can step in and provide some nastiness on the right side of the line. He has tremendous length and heavy hands. He is not the most athletic prospect of all time, but he should help anchor down the right side of the line next to Trey Smith.
31. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) – Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington After bolstering their offensive line in free agency, Cincinnati can turn its attention to the defense. McDuffie is a bit undersized, but he has the closing speed and physicality you want to see from a starting corner. He notably did not allow a touchdown in 2021 and is credited for playing bigger than his size. Those are two good signs for him in the NFL. Even after hitting on Chidobe Awuzie, there is still room for some more talent in the Bengals cornerback room. After all, the AFC is loaded with talented quarterbacks.
32. Detroit Lions via Los Angeles (12-5) – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas I strongly considered a quarterback here, but I think Detroit is more interested in building the framework for Jared Goff and whoever succeeds him down the line. Treylon Burks is a physical playmaker who can stretch the field and make plays in the red zone. He has good initial burst, even if he lacks elite long speed. His three cone was a bit of a red flag, but his long arms should allow him to make contested catches even if he cannot generate a ton of separation. Look for him to form a solid young tandem with Amon-Ra St. Brown.
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What in the world??? There has never been a week in the NFL like this before and there might never be a week like it ever again. The greatest quarterback of all time unretired just 40 days after hanging up his cleats. Then, the Broncos sent a huge haul to Seattle to land Russell Wilson as their new quarterback. Aaron Rodgers then signed the richest contract in NFL history on an annual salary basis to stay with the Packers. A couple of blockbuster trades saw Khalil Mack join the Chargers and Davante Adams land in Las Vegas. Oh, and Carson Wentz is in Washington now. To cap off this whirlwind of a week, the Browns traded three first-round picks as part of a package to land Deshaun Watson. Simply stunning.
Watson now has the most guaranteed money in NFL history. (Wikimedia Commons)
The Watson sweepstakes have been long and complicated. Watson announced that he wanted to be traded last year, but the Texans showed no signs of agreeing. It appeared to set up a standoff between team and player until the news about Watson’s off-the-field actions broke. He sat out all of 2021 as the investigation into allegations of sexual assault took place. Interestingly, the NFL never put Watson on the commissioner’s exempt list despite the ongoing situation. On March 11, just one week before Watson was ultimately traded, a grand jury declined to indict the then Texans quarterback on charges stemming from lawsuits filed by 22 women alleging harassment and sexual assault. That opened the floodgates for a return to the field.
Now, Watson is still facing 22 civil lawsuits and will likely be disciplined by the league. This situation is far from being resolved. Clearly the Browns, whether right or wrong, felt comfortable bringing Watson into the fold. While there is a lot of football implications to discuss with this move, it is really important not to lose sight of the significance of these allegations and what it will mean if it comes out that Watson is in fact a sex offender. As of now, we don’t know if he is one way or the other. I hope the legal system leads to justice, but I also know that too often, that isn’t the case.
What’s more, this past week alone has been truly bizarre. From reports out of the Browns front office stating they want “an adult” at quarterback to reports that Watson had informed Cleveland he would not play for them, this saga is astounding. For the Browns, it is hard to imagine how acquiring a player in the midst of a sexual assault scandal gives you an adult at the position. For Watson, I can understand the about face when there is $230 million in GUARANTEED money on the table. Still, it is staggering that the Browns would be willing to do this given Watson’s deplorable off-the-field behavior and the pending consequences.
Every dollar of Deshaun Watson’s new five-year, $230 million deal is guaranteed, per sources, setting a new record for the highest guarantee given to an NFL player. @Browns and Watson’s agent @DavidMulugheta combine to make history.
There is no easy way to transition to the football side of things, but this does greatly impact the NFL as a whole. Baker Mayfield will now certainly be the subject of trade offers. I wrote about where he could land yesterday. Plus, the draft just became way more interesting.
It appears like the Texans will give Davis Mills the opportunity to start at quarterback this season. With two too-15 selections, Houston can now fill some of the major holes on its offense, namely on the offensive line and at receiver. This also gives the Texans all the draft capital needed in order to move up for the top prospect in next year’s draft or to acquire a veteran via trade if Mills does not look like the long-term answer. In short, Houston actually seems poised to properly rebuild.
On Cleveland’s side of things, they will hope to recoup a few draft picks in exchange for Mayfield. Even after acquiring Amari Cooper, the Browns need another receiver. Plus, they have an opening at center after releasing J.C. Tretter. They have way less premium draft capital to address those positions, but the Browns should be able to attract whatever remaining free agents they want after this move. That is, assuming players don’t have an issue with Watson.
From a football perspective, there is no doubt the Browns got better. Cleveland just better hope it is ready to handle the media firestorm that is bound to follow this decision. There will be intense scrutiny and criticism of the Browns and Watson each step of the way. Forget whatever media attention Mayfield drew, Cleveland now has a target on its back.
It is hard to believe that one year after Baker Mayfield led the Browns to their first playoff win since 1994 he will now be searching for a new home. Tom Pelissero reported Thursday that Mayfield has requested a trade following Cleveland’s pursuit of Deshaun Watson.
#Browns QB Baker Mayfield has requested a trade, per sources.
Cleveland has been hoping to move forward after its Deshaun Watson pursuit and offered to fly to Texas to meet with Mayfield. But from the QB’s perspective, the bridge is burned and it’s time to move on now.
An injury-riddled, disappointing 2021 season soured the relationship between the team and the former No. 1 pick. Cleveland had already opted against offering Mayfield an extension, instead allowing him to play out the final year of his rookie contract.
Mayfield posted a goodbye to Browns fans on social media earlier this week following the team’s interest in Texans quarterback Watson. The writing was on the wall then, but it is still a shocking development considering the Browns entered the season with legitimate title aspirations.
So what happens now for Mayfield? There is no shortage of suitors for the 26-year-old quarterback this offseason. Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans are all in on landing Watson, but two of those teams will still need a long-term answer at quarterback after a deal goes down. Beyond those three, the Colts, Giants and Seahawks are all kicking the tires on prospective quarterbacks. New York did just sign Tyrod Taylor to backup Daniel Jones, but if there is interest in Mayfield, I don’t think that will stop them from making a move. What makes this complicated is that the Browns do not seem inclined to trade Mayfield. Jake Trotter tweeted shortly after the news broke that Cleveland denied his request.
Browns have told Baker Mayfield’s camp they are "not accommodating his request,” per source.
The teams that stand out to me are Indianapolis, Carolina and Seattle. The latter two allow the Browns to move Mayfield out of the conference and both teams have major question marks at quarterback with hopes of being much more competitive in 2022. However, Cleveland might receive the best offer from Indy. After trading away Carson Wentz and without a first-round pick in 2022, it is hard to figure out who the Colts will start at quarterback this season. Let’s go team by team.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have several starting quarterback options, which is to say they have no idea who will start for them this season. Sam Darnold, who was selected two picks after Mayfield in 2018, is still under contract for 2022. He had an up-and-down year that ended prematurely due to an injury. Then there is Cam Newton. Super Cam arrived halfway through the 2021 season and immediately breathed some new life into the Panthers offense. The spark was short-lived though as Carolina went 0-5 in games Newton started. The former MVP also threw just four touchdowns and five interceptions in eight appearances. There is no question the Panthers need a long-term solution at quarterback.
Should they make the call?: Absolutely not. What is the point in adding a second quarterback from the 2018 draft coming off an injury. Mayfield would be an upgrade over both Darnold and Newton, but this does not provide the stability the Panthers need.
Seattle Seahawks
Now that Russell Wilson is donning Broncos orange, Seattle desperately needs to find its next quarterback. The combination of Drew Lock and Geno Smith does not inspire much confidence for long-term success. Lock is heading into his fourth season, but has struggled with consistency and health. Smith is a career backup who can step in for an injured starter. Neither is going to be the starting quarterback by the time 2023 rolls around. In fact, both could not be on the roster by that point. The question is not if Seattle needs help, it is if this is the right move.
Should they make the call?: I personally would love to see Colin Kaepernick get a second chance by landing with the Seahawks. Pete Carroll revealed this week that he has been in touch with the former 49ers quarterback. Kap is also working out with Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett after he posted a video lamenting his lack of throwing partners. That being said, Mayfield is a much safer bet than Kaepernick, who has not taken a snap in the NFL since 2016. If Cleveland is willing to move Mayfield for a Day 2 and a Day 3 pick, I would strongly consider it.
Indianapolis Colts
Once again, the Colts find themselves in desperate need of a quarterback. Last year, that led Indianapolis acquiring Carson Wentz from the Eagles. Colts general manager Chris Ballard already flipped Wentz to Washington for pennies on the dollar, so this team is short on draft capital and high on needing a solution. With the right quarterback, this team has the talent to make a real run at winning the AFC South and maybe winning a playoff game or two. Sam Ehlinger and James Morgan are the only quarterbacks on the Colts roster at the moment. Maybe Indy will give Ehlinger a chance to compete for the job, but it also needs to find a veteran to be in the mix.
Should they make the call?: I don’t think so. To be honest, I think the Colts have missed their Super Bowl window. They have holes at wide receiver, left tackle, left guard, cornerback and safety. They have big contracts on board already for players like DeForest Buckner, Darius Leonard, Braden Smith and now Yannick Ngakoue. They still need to pay Quenton Nelson as well. I just think Indianapolis has too many holes and not enough resources to fill them all and become a true contender with this current roster. This core could still win a title, but it looks like it will be a year or two before they are ready to compete. If I’m Ballard, I pass on Mayfield and go sign Jameis Winston while I retool the rest of my roster.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are clearly banking on landing Watson. After rolling with the combination of Winston, Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian and Ian Book in 2022, the Texans quarterback could offer some much needed stability. You know, as soon as he is done serving the suspension that is likely coming for his off-the-field behavior. Still, if Watson winds up in Carolina or Atlanta, New Orleans will still need a quarterback. Winston and Siemian are free agents, Hill is a gadget player and Book looks like an overmatched backup quarterback. With Michael Thomas hopefully coming back from injury and Alvin Kamara facing legal trouble himself, there are still a lot of question marks surrounding this Saints offense.
Should they make the call?: Assuming they don’t land Watson, I say yes. Contingent on the asking price of course. If the Saints can land Mayfield for a mid-round selection and a future Day 3 pick, I think that is worth doing in this case. Mayfield is still 26 and has shown the potential to be a solid starter in the NFL. He won’t be a superstar, but the Saints can work to build more around him. They already have some great playmakers and a solid offensive line in place. That sounds like a recipe for success for Mayfield.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
How about a wild card to throw into the mix? Tom Brady is returning for another season, but his contract is up following 2022. Not to mention that he could always retire again. Rumors put Brady in San Francisco for 2023 with a chance to finish his career in his hometown. Speculation about Brady aside, it feels like Tampa has one more year with the seven-time Super Bowl champion. What remains behind Brady is far from reassuring as Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask will compete to be his backup.
Should they make the call?: I say yes. I just don’t think Cleveland would do the deal. Tampa could probably offer some more draft capital if the Browns would be willing to eat at least part of Mayfield’s cap hit for 2022. It would give Bruce Arians a year to evaluate Mayfield and let him learn from the greatest to ever play the position. Mayfield will certainly have opportunities to start elsewhere, but that does not mean he should take them right away. If he has another tumultuous year, it is hard to envision him landing a starting job anywhere beyond 2022. He has to pick his next destination carefully.
College football is officially in offseason mode. While it is obviously sad we won’t have college football to fill up our Saturdays anymore, it was a thrilling season, capped off with an exciting championship game. Now, we shift our focus even more so to the upcoming NFL draft, as many players who featured in Monday’s game expect to hear their names called early on draft night.
One of the unfortunate storylines of the night though was the non-contact knee injury suffered by Jameson Williams. This came just about a month after his partner in crime, John Metchie III, tore his ACL in the SEC title game. Both were potential top-50 picks, with Williams rising into the top 10 for several draft experts. With such a serious injury this late in the season, I wonder if he might not be better off returning to school for his senior year. Williams would still likely garner significant draft interest, but this likely hurts his stock. With so much uncertainty surrounding the situation right now, I left him out of the first round until I know more.
Meanwhile, in the NFL, 18 teams are officially in offseason mode as well, with the remaining 14 gearing up for the postseason. There are definitely some changes since my last mock draft as I’ve continued to sift through film and the draft order has changed based on the final few results of the NFL regular season.
We still have a long way to go until we reach the draft in Las Vegas, but the pre draft process is just beginning to heat up. Players are accepting Senior Bowl invites, which is coming up at the beginning of February in Mobile, Alabama. Plus, the East-West Shrine Bowl and NFLPA Collegiate Bowl are also just weeks away.
With all of that in mind, let’s dive into my first mock of 2022. The draft order is according to Tankathon.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-14) – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan Jacksonville had a fun Week 18, stunning the Colts to keep them out of the playoffs and still holding onto the No. 1 pick. With that top selection, it is hard to overlook Aidan Hutchinson. This Jaguars defense, outside of a surprising six-sack showing to close the season, has struggled to generate pressure. Hutchinson will give the Jags a nightmarish duo with Josh Allen playing opposite him.
2. Detroit Lions (3-13-1) – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon This is a pretty great consolation prize for the Lions. While not quite on the same level of Chase Young, Thibodeaux is a dynamic pass rusher with an impressive array of pass-rush moves. He has disappeared at times and can struggle when put into conflict by RPOs and read options. Overall, he would be a great pairing with Romeo Okwara and hopefully help transform a Lions’ defense lacking talent.
3. Houston Texans (4-13) – Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati Houston could head a number of directions here. I personally love Ahmad Gardner, who has the makings of a lockdown corner. I’ve talked about it before, but it is impossible to be a true No. 1 corner in the NFL without length. The threshold seems to be right around 5’11”. Gardner is 6’3″ and moves exceptionally well for someone that size. He will need some coaching to improve his man coverage technique, but already dominates as a zone corner. He would give the Texans a talented defensive back to rebuild the defense around.
4. New York Jets (4-13) – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama While the Jets might have more pressing needs, Evan Neal is too big a talent to overlook. Literally. At 6’7″, 340 pounds, the Jets could potentially bookend their offensive line with massive tackles to protect Zach Wilson now and into the future. Neal played at right tackle prior to taking over at left tackle in 2021. With Morgan Moses and George Fant headed for free agency, this makes a ton of sense as well. If one or both of them is back, then that could reshuffle New York’s priorities in the draft.
5. New York Giants (4-13) – Ikem Ekwonu, OT, North Carolina State Dave Gettleman may have retired, but the Giants could take a page out of his book and do what he always promised: build an offensive line. Ikem Ekwonu is a nasty run blocker with impressive power. He has room for growth in pass protection, but all the physical tools to excel. Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones would both greatly benefit from his addition.
6. Carolina Panthers (5-12) – Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa Carolina needs a quarterback, but I don’t have a first-round grade on any of the passers in this class at the moment. Instead, the Panthers can rebuild an offensive line that was among the worst in the league in 2021. Tyler Linderbaum is an athletic center who can get out in space to lead the way on outside runs and screen plays. That bodes well for a team with Christian McCaffrey. Make no mistake though, Linderbaum is still capable of putting defenders on their back if they aren’t careful.
7. New York Giants via Chicago Bears (6-11) – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue New York continues to build in the trenches with their second pick in the top 10. George Karlaftis is not quite on the same level as the top two edge rushers in this class, but he has a great first step off the edge and some enticing physical tools. He has the versatility to play with his hand on the ground in a 4-3 alignment or stand up on the edge in sub packages. This would give the Giants an exciting pairing on the edge with Azeez Ojulari.
8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) – Drake London, WR, USC Will Calvin Ridley return to the Falcons? We’ve not seen the former first-round pick since October as he stepped away from his mental health. Now, there is buzz that he could be traded. That would leave Atlanta desperately needing a new No. 1 receiver. I know Kyle Pitts is already in place, but he cannot do it alone, nor has he shown an ability to produce in the red zone. Drake London should help with that. He plays a lot like Mike Evans, using his massive frame and athleticism to high point the ball and catch it away from his body. London led the nation in receptions prior to a season-ending ankle injury.
9. Denver Broncos (7-10) – Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia Denver traded away Von Miller this season and has two pending free agents for starting linebackers (when healthy). Nakobe Dean might actually find a way to fill all of those voids to a certain degree. He is an athletic linebacker with great range and some sneaky good pass rush ability. He will be a difference maker at the next level with his closing speed. He draws comparisons to Jonathan Vilma, which the Broncos could desperately use in the middle of their defense.
10. New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks (7-10) – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU New York’s secondary was bad in 2021. The Jets allowed the third most yards per attempt, yards per game and third-highest completion percentage in the league this season. Landing Derek Stingley Jr. here could be a coup. He was assumed to be CB1 heading into the season, but injuries and some inconsistent play since that dominant freshman year make his projection a bit more murky. I sincerely hope we get to see him at the combine.
11. Washington Football Team (7-10) – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame This is still too early for a quarterback if you ask me. Instead, Washington can attempt to address its very underwhelming defense. Supposedly the strength of this team, Washington allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game this season. Landon Collins had a rough season at safety, but seemed to excel when he moved into a hybrid linebacker role. He could be a post-June 1 cut to save cap space as though. Kyle Hamilton is essentially a better, more well-rounded version of Collins. Adding him to save money and upgrade at the same time makes a ton of sense.
12. Minnesota Vikings (8-9) – Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson Minnesota will be disappointed to see Hamilton off the board, but Andrew Booth Jr. is an excellent consolation prize. With Jeff Gladney gone and Patrick Peterson turning 32 in July, the Vikings need some new blood at corner. Yes, they have spent a number of premium draft picks at the position, but that doesn’t mean they should stop trying. Booth is a projectable starter in the NFL. I know it is important to scout the player, not the helmet, but the development of A.J. Terrell and Trayvon Mullen in the NFL makes optimistic there is still untapped potential for Clemson’s No. 1 corner.
13. Cleveland Browns (8-9) – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State There buzz continues that Baker Mayfield could be done in Cleveland, but this is not the draft to try to replace him. Instead, the Browns should put their former No. 1 pick in the best position to succeed. Adding Garrett Wilson would do just that. He is a proven playmaker with good hands, above average quickness and a nose for the end zone. Cleveland’s wide receiver room is fairly deep, but lacks a true No. 1 option. Wilson could develop into just that.
14. Baltimore Ravens (8-9) – Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia With the top three corners off the board and the Ravens set to get a number of key players back in the secondary from injury, I think they should target the defensive line. Jordan Davis is a disruptive people-mover and space eater. He is massive, listed at 6’6″, 340 pounds. Brandon Williams turns 33 in February and is a pending free agent. Davis would step into that run stuffing role with some added pass rushing ability.
15. Philadelphia Eagles via Miami Dolphins (9-8) – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah I know, the Eagles don’t prioritize linebackers, but maybe they should. Avery Genard and Alex Singleton are both replaceable. Devin Lloyd is a dynamic off-ball linebacker who can rush the passer. He has the range to make plays sideline-to-sideline and hang with backs and tight ends in coverage. After a slow start to the season, he finished the year strong. There is room to improve as a block shedder, but I really like what he brings to the table.
16. Philadelphia Eagles via Indianapolis Colts (9-8) – David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan Might as well continue to retool that front seven. David Ojabo has an underwhelming performance in the College Football Playoff semifinal, but the upside he brings is still apparent. His athleticism pops off the charts. Still relatively new to the sport, he is just scratching the surface. He could contribute early on as a third-down sub package player as he continues to develop his technique as a pass rusher.
17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8) – DeMarvin Leal, DL, Texas A&M The Chargers defensive line is in desperate need of a boost. DeMarvin Leal projects best as a three-technique tackle, but he has the versatility to kick outside as well. He flashes some exciting potential as a pass rusher, but disappeared at times as well. Playing alongside Joey Bosa should allow him to have a larger impact. He will be someone I am eager to see test in Indianapolis.
18. New Orleans Saints (9-8) – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State With Terron Armstead unlikely to be back in 2022, the Saints will have a huge hole at left tackle. Charles Cross is a good candidate to be a Day 1 starter in the NFL. There will be some growing pains with limit run snaps and some concerns about how grabby he is in pass protection. That being said, he is a fluid mover and anchors well against power rushers.
19. Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas After going defense with their first two picks, the Eagles turn to the offense to find another weapon for Jalen Hurts to work with. DeVonta Smith has proven himself thus far as a reliable target, but the rest of the receiving corps is a bit more suspect. Treylon Burks brings an exciting combination of size and speed. He was a bit inconsistent against some of the top teams he faced this year, but flashed the potential to be a quality receiver in the NFL.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) – Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh Finally, we have a quarterback come off the board. The likelihood is that one will go before this point, but I don’t think any should. Pittsburgh unquestionably needs to find its quarterback of the future with Ben Roethlisberger headed for retirement. Kenny Pickett obviously gets to stay home, but he also has the best resume of any of the draft eligible quarterbacks. He has a live arm with impressive accuracy. He has enough athleticism to compete in the modern NFL, extending plays with his legs. His ceiling might be a bit lower than others in this class, with Pickett set to turn 24 in June, but that works well for a Steelers team that is otherwise ready to contend now.
21. New England Patriots (10-7) – Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa If Trent Brown returns, then there is no reason to target a tackle here, but if Brown leaves, then New England will need someone to take over at right tackle. Trevor Penning could be the perfect candidate. He is a large human being, measuring in at 6’7″ and 320 pounds. He moves really well for a player that size and shows a lot of requisite skills to succeed in pass protection in the NFL. There will unquestionably be a learning curve coming from the FCS level, but we’ve seen plenty of players make the jump in recent years.
22. Miami Dolphins via San Francisco 49ers (10-7) – Nicolas Petit-Frère, OT Ohio State Miami’s offensive line is still a patchwork unit with a lot of holes. Maybe the Dolphins will give the young unit another year to gel, but they had the worst pass block win rate in the league this season. Reinforcements are likely needed. Perhaps a move in free agency will be required, but until then, Nicolas Petit-Frère seems like a worthy option at this spot. He looked strong against George Karlaftis this year, which underlines his talent. He also struggled mightily against Aidan Hutchinson, which highlights areas for growth. Either way, he likely won’t be much worse than Miami’s current tackles.
23. Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State Unfortunately, Henry Ruggs is done in the NFL. That means the Raiders once again have a need for a receiver. Chris Olave can help fill the void. While he is not quite the speedster that Ruggs was, he does have some wheels. He is capable of stretching the field, can work the middle of the field on crossing concepts as well. Adding him alongside Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow would give Derek Carr a solid complement of weapons.
24. Arizona Cardinals (11-6) – Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn The Cardinals’ defense has stepped up in the second half of the season while the offense has slumped a bit. However, the loss to Seattle points to Arizona’s clear offseason needs in the secondary. Roger McCreary would give the Cards a long, rangy corner with the ability to develop into a true No. 1 option. He put together an impressive season against good competition.
25. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) – Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M While the Bengals feel good about drafting Ja’Marr Chase, the pressing need for offensive line help has not disappeared, especially on the interior. Kenyon Green has experience all over the line and should be a plug-and-play option to help protect Joe Burrow. He has plenty of reps against elite defenders playing in the SEC. Cincinnati gave up the third-most sacks in the league this season.
26. Buffalo Bills (11-6) – Sean Rhyan, OL, UCLA As the season has worn on, it has become clear that Buffalo needs to revamp the interior of its offensive line. Sean Rhyan is your classic college tackle who might be better off playing guard in the NFL. He is a steady operator, but lacks the elite athleticism needed to contend on the outside with pro-caliber edge rushers. His history as a tackle likely boosts his value though because he could start there in a pinch.
27. Detroit Lions via Los Angeles (12-5) – Malik Willis, QB, Liberty While this is not a great quarterback class, the Lions can take a crack at the one with the highest upside. Malik Willis is cut from the same cloth as Lamar Jackson with his electric running ability in the open field and dazzling arm strength. However, Jackson was likely a bit further along in his development as a passer than Willis is at the moment. The Liberty star hangs onto the ball for way too long and tends to play hero ball. He struggles with accuracy. That being said, his upside is worth gambling on in this spot. If Detroit ends up with a top-five pick next season, they can always move Willis for additional draft capital and take a more proven prospect like Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud.
28. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) – Daxton Hill, S, Michigan Dallas’ defense has been one of the most surprising stories of the year, but it is unlikely to sustain this success without reinforcements. Daxton Hill is a versatile safety who can line up in the slot. He has the speed to track down players on the boundary and the physicality to make plays in space. Given the Cowboys’ salary cap constraints, there is a good chance Damontae Kazee will not be back and Donovan Wilson is heading into a contract year.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) – Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State Jahan Dotson has the explosive playmaking ability and proven production that puts him in the conversation to go in the first round. He has great hands and can separate from defenders. He is not the biggest receiver, but he is still capable of playing on the outside. While that might feel a bit redundant given Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman filling similar profiles, Dotson can operate as a bit more of a possession receiver than either of them.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4) – Devonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia Tampa continues to stay ahead of future needs by drafting for its front seven. While Vita Vea is locked in to a long-term deal, Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, William Gholston and Steve McClendon are all pending free agents. Devonte Wyatt cannot replace all of them, but he can soften the blow. Often overlooked, he has been one of the key contributors to this Georgia defense. He would help the Buccaneers continue to stay stout against the run and offer some interior pass rush ability as well.
31. Tennessee Titans (12-5) – Christian Harris, LB, Alabama With Jayon Brown and Rashaan Evans both headed for free agency, Tennessee has a need at linebacker. Christian Harris feels like great value to fill that need at the back end of the first round. Harris is a bit like an attack dog, when you let off the leash, he is capable of wreaking havoc. However, he also locks in sometimes and loses track of his assignment. There is also room for improvement when it comes to block shedding. That being said, his ability to shoot the gap and make a big play is enticing.
32. Green Bay Packers (13-4) – Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia Another Georgia defender in the first round. Travon Walker is built like Za’Darius and Preston Smith, Green Bay’s two current edge rushers who could both be cap casualties this offseason. Walker will help fill the void. He was a consistent performer on the Bulldogs’ championship-winning defense, producing six sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss in 2021. His versatility, lining up on the interior, on the edge or even as a stand up backer, would make him an intriguing chess piece for Joe Barry to deploy.
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