NFL

2022 NFL Pro Potential Power Rankings: Alabama stay on top, Georgia makes huge jump

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NCAAF, NFL, Power Rankings , , , , , , , ,

Welcome to Year 7! This is one of my favorite exercises to conduct every year. It is always incredibly interesting to see which schools make the cut and if anyone can come close to catching Alabama (spoiler: hasn’t happened yet.)

Unsurprisingly, the SEC continues to dominate these rankings. Nine teams from the conference feature in the Top 25 this year. The Pac-12 is shockingly second with five. However, none of them are in the top 10 and that includes USC and UCLA, who are leaving to join the Big Ten in 2024.

For those wondering, this exercise was somewhat inspired by the Pro Potential rankings from the NCAA Football games in dynasty mode. This list is not meant to measure how successful any of these players were after reaching the NFL. It is a far better tool for high school recruits to see which schools are the best at getting players drafted.

Obviously, recruiting plays a huge role in all of this, but there is not a direct correlation between recruiting rankings and these rankings. Just ask Jimbo Fisher. Enough rambling. Let’s get to this year’s Top 25.

Previous rankings: 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016

As a reminder as to how these rankings are created, I look at all the players drafted over the past five years and then score their draft spot using the scoring system below. The draft classes included in this year’s rankings span from 2018 to 2022.

The scoring system is as follows:
1st round – 10 points
2nd round – 7 points
3rd round – 5 points
4th round – 4 points
5th round – 3 points
6th round – 2 points
7th round – 1 points

Alabama Logo

1. Alabama Crimson Tide – 316 points
Previous: 1 (343 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Quinnen Williams, 3rd Overall, 2019
This was a disappointing draft, by Alabama standards. And yet, they still lead these ranks by 76 points. Still, two first rounders was the fewest for the Tide since 2016. ‘Bama dropped points for the first time since I started these rankings. Keep in mind, for any other school, this would be a really good class. I fully expect Alabama to be back in the range of four or five first-rounders next year with Bryce Young, Eli Ricks, Will Anderson and a few others in the mix.

Georgia Logo

2. Georgia Bulldogs – 240 points
Previous: 7 (153 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Travon Walker, 1st Overall, 2022
Georgia’s dominant 2021 season led to a monster draft class. The Bulldogs set a modern NFL record with 15 players selected, including five first-rounders. They broke the record set by LSU in the 2020 draft. I don’t know that Georgia will come anywhere close to that again in the near future, but they should have more than enough NFL production to stay in the top five. Kirby Smart might be the best recruiter in the country and he and his staff have done an excellent job of developing talent along the way.

Ohio State Logo

3. Ohio State Buckeyes – 232 points
Previous: 2 (248 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Nick Bosa/Chase Young, 2nd Overall, 2019/2020
It was a bit of a quieter draft for the Buckeyes with six players selected, the fewest the school has had since 2015. However, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave gave Ohio State multiple first-round selections for the sixth time in the past seven years. Ryan Day has an unquestionable eye for talent at receiver and that room is still loaded. Hopes of catching Alabama seemed to have faded for now, but a spot in the top three feels pretty secure at this stage.

Louisiana State University logo

4. LSU Tigers – 207 points
Previous: 3 (215 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Joe Burrow, 1st Overall, 2020
Brian Kelly built Notre Dame into one of the better NFL pipelines in the country. Now, he will get to prove that he can do it in the Bayou with a huge recruiting hotbed to work with. Ed Orgeron had LSU among the nation’s elite producers in NFL talent already, so it shouldn’t be too hard to maintain that. The Tigers quietly had 10 players taken in this class. However, Derek Stingley Jr. was the lone first-round selection. Kelly will need to put a few more in the top 32 if LSU is going to keep up with Alabama, Georgia and LSU.

MichiganWolverines

5. Michigan Wolverines – 145 points
Previous: 4 (170 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Aidan Hutchinson, 2nd Overall, 2022
The drop off from the top four to everyone else is massive. Aidan Hutchinson became the Wolverines highest drafted player since 2008 when Jake Long went No. 1 overall. However, Michigan lost an 11-man class from 2017 that caused them to drop in the rankings. Still, after a run to the College Football Playoff, Jim Harbaugh seems to have things headed in the right direction. He has revolutionized Michigan football and turned them into a true NFL factory. When I started these rankings in 2016, following Harbaugh’s first year in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines were not ranked. The following year, they skyrocketed to No. 11 and they have been in the top 10 since 2019.

Oklahoma Logo

6. Oklahoma Sooners – 144 points
Previous: 8 (138 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Baker Mayfield/Kyler Murray, 1st Overall, 2018/2019
Things are going to change a lot for Oklahoma. The Sooners had a solid seven-player draft class, but none were selected in the first round. With Lincoln Riley gone, there is no guarantee that this team continues to produce NFL draft picks at the same level. Brent Venables arrives from Clemson as a first-time head coach. He has proven himself as a developer of defensive talent. The Tigers had a bevy of first-round selections on that side of the ball during his tenure. Oklahoma actually picked up a few points this year after losing a lackluster 2017 class. This will be one of the more interesting schools to watch in the coming years with a change of leadership.

Florida logo.jpg

7. Florida Gators – 143 points
Previous: 5 (167 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Kyle Pitts, 4th Overall, 2021
A lack of on the field success and another coaching change have finally started to catch up with Florida. That being said, the Gators are still firmly entrenched in the top 10 and only two points out of the top five. With just three players selected this past season, it seems like the program is headed in the wrong direction from an NFL production standpoint. Kaiir Elam was a first-round pick, but if I had to guess, I would say it is more likely Florida falls a little further than climbs back into the top five. Billy Napier has his work cut out for him.

Penn_State_text_logo

8. Penn State Nittany Lions – 138 points
Previous: 11 (109 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Saquon Barkley, 2nd Overall, 2018
Say what you will about James Franklin, but he has turned Happy Valley into a pro prospect goldmine once again. When I first started these rankings, Penn State was on the fringes and had not had a first-round pick since 2010. Now, they’ve had six straight draft classes with at least five players selected, including four first-rounders. There is still room for improvement when it comes to producing top-end talent, but make no mistake, the Nittany Lions are well entrenched in these rankings and have a very good base to build on.

Clemson Logo

9. Clemson Tigers – 137 points
Previous: 6 (165 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Trevor Lawrence, 1st Overall, 2021
A few years ago, I believed it was legitimately possible for Clemson to start challenging Ohio State and Alabama atop these rankings. Oh how times have changed. Now, Dabo Swinney’s program is on the verge of falling out of the top 10. Just two former Tigers heard their names called in the 2022 draft. Swinney’s defense is loaded with draft prospects this year though so, CLemson should stick in the top 10.

Notre Dame Logo

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish – 135 points
Previous: 10 (130 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Quenton Nelson, 6th Overall, 2018
Notre Dame continues its run in the upper echelon of NFL draft prospect production. However, Brian Kelly is now headed to Baton Rouge. Marcus Freeman will now have to prove he is just as capable of recruiting and developing top-tier talent. There is no question the Irish still offer the big stage needed to get noticed by scouts. It will be interesting to see which direction Freeman will lead this team in the coming seasons.

Washington Huskies logo.jpg

11. Washington Huskies – 123 points
Previous: 9 (132 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Vita Vea, 12th Overall, 2018
There is a bit of a gap between Notre Dame and Washington, but the Huskies are closer to the top programs on this list than they are the bottom of it. However, much like the Irish, they are undergoing a coaching change. Jimmy Lake is out and Kalen DeBoer is in. It is a rapid rise for DeBoer, who spent just two years leading Fresno State before taking the job with Washington. A total of four former Huskies were drafted in 2022, headlined by Trent McDuffie in the first round. Don’t expect Washington to go anywhere any time soon given their past draft success, but DeBoer has big shoes to fill.

USC logo

12. USC Trojans – 103 points
Previous: 12 (108 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Sam Darnold, 3rd Overall, 2018
Well hello there Big Ten-bound USC. The Trojans continue to hover outside the Top 10, but had a more transformational offseason than any program in college football. Southern Cal hired Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma, added his former quarterback Caleb Williams via the transfer portal and announced that it, along with UCLA, will be headed to the Big Ten. This is huge news for many of the Big Ten schools, but it is significant for USC’s to recruit the midwest. I think we could see the Trojans rise rapidly over the next few seasons as Riley takes over and the impact of the conference realignment takes hold.

iowa_wordmark

13. Iowa Hawkeyes – 97 points
Previous: 13 (98 points)
Highest Drafted Player – T.J. Hockenson, 8th Overall, 2019
Need an offensive lineman or a tight end? Iowa still remains the place to look. Tyler Linderbaum became the latest Hawkeyes lineman to go in Round 1. However, Only one other player from Iowa was selected this year. Producing first-round picks is always a good thing, but it would be good to see Kirk Ferentz’s program have more than two total prospects selected. I’m not too worried about their long-term prospects, but don’t expect the Hawkeyes to climb much higher than where they stand right now.

1000px-mississippi_state_bulldogs_logo.svg_

14. Mississippi State Bulldogs – 92 points
Previous: 20 (77 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Charles Cross, 9th Overall, 2022
I was a bit surprised to see Mississippi State climbing in these rankings after having just two players selected in the 2022 draft. Charles Cross going in the first round obviously made a big difference, but still. The reason for the jump is that the Bulldogs were getting very little value from the 2017 class no longer being included in the scoring. That class featured just one sixth-round selection. As long as Mississippi State’s 2019 class is still relevant, which included three first-round picks, they will be in the rankings. Things look rather murky beyond that point though.

Auburn_Tigers_logo

15. Auburn Tigers – 91 points
Previous: 15 (96 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Derrick Brown, 7th Overall, 2020
Auburn is widely being described as a dumpster fire with no direction forward. That might start to catch up with them soon. The Tigers had just one player selected over the course of draft weekend this year. It was the first time since 2013 Auburn failed to produce multiple draft selections. That being said, Auburn has solid classes in the previous four years included in the scoring, so they won’t drop off any time soon, but Bryan Harsin will need to turn things around if Auburn wants to maintain its spot in the top 15.

Texas A&M logo

16. Texas A&M Aggies – 88 points
Previous: 16 (90 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Kenyon Green, 15th Overall, 2022
Jimbo Fisher has yet to really deliver on the enormous expectations heaped on him when he arrived in College Station. That applies both on the field and on draft day. Fisher built Florida State into a draft juggernaut. The Seminoles were second when I debuted these rankings back in 2016. A&M has yet to crack the top 10. It was another solid draft class for the Aggies, featuring four players, including a first-round pick. For most other schools, this would be a really good place to be. I am just surprised they haven’t climbed higher.

17. Kentucky Wildcats – 83 points
Previous: Others Receiving Votes: (60 points)
Highest Drafted Player: Josh Allen, 7th overall, 2019
Well hello there Kentucky. The Wildcats were clawing at the door last year, but finally broke though. Four more draft picks, including three Day 2 selections, pushed them into the rankings. Don’t expect them to go anywhere either. Will Levis is drawing top-10 buzz in the 2023 class. What is even more important is that Kentucky did not have a single player selected in 2017 or 2018. The only way the Wildcats will be going is up.

1000px-north_carolina_state_university_athletic_logo.svg_

18. North Carolina State Wolfpack – 76 points
Previous: 23 (72 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Bradley Chubb, 5th Overall, 2018
NC State continues to be one of the most underrated producers of NFL talent. The Wolfpack produced another first-round selection with Ikem Ekwonu this year. However, things have slowed down a bit in Raleigh in recent years. NC State’s seven-player class from 2018 won’t be included in next year’s rankings. They have only had nine players taken over the past four drafts combined. Producing first-rounders will keep them in the mix, but they need a bit more volume to solidify their spot.

Ole_Miss_Rebels_logo

19. Ole Miss Rebels – 73 points
Previous: 25 (69 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Greg Little, 37th Overall, 2019
Lane Kiffin seems to have the Rebels headed in the right direction, but it has yet to result in a ton of draft success. Ole Miss has had a bunch of mid-round selections in recent years, including a healthy 6-player class in 2022. However, it has been six years since their last first-round pick. Given a bit more time, I think Kiffin will get them back into the top 15. At the very least, I don’t think there is any reason to expect them to drop out of the rankings at this point.

Miami logo

20. Miami Hurricanes – 71 points
Previous: 14 (97 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Jaelan Phillips, 18th Overall, 2021
Given how irrelevant the Canes have been on the national stage, it is a wonder they are still in the top 25. That being said, no one has risen up to knock them out yet. This was easily the worst year we have seen from Miami from a draft perspective possibly ever. It was the first time since 2009 that the Hurricanes accounted for just one NFL draft selection. Jonathan Ford was taken in the seventh round as well. However, the window to push them out might have already passed. Mario Cristobal returns to his alma mater with hopes of restoring the program’s former glory. If he can successfully recruit South Florida and replicate the player development he displayed at Oregon, Miami will be back in a big way.

Florida State Logo

20. Florida State Seminoles – 71 points
Previous: 19 (78 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Brian Burns, 16th Overall, 2019
Much like Miami, Florida State is still trying to pick up the pieces. As I mentioned when talking about Texas A&M, Jimbo Fisher had the Seminoles among the country’s elite when it came to draft prospects. They were in the top five from 2016 to 2018. Now, Florida State is clinging to its spot in the top 25. Unlike Miami, there is not quite as much hope on the horizon. Mike Norvell has yet to get the Seminoles back to .500 and Jermaine Johnson II was the lone player from his program who heard his name called during the draft. Don’t be shocked if FSU falls out next year.

UCLA logo.jpg

22. UCLA Bruins – 70 points
Previous: 21 (76 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Josh Rosen, 10th Overall, 2018
While there was a lot more made about USC joining the Big Ten than UCLA, the Bruins are a solid addition in the college football landscape. Chip Kelly has kept them in the mix. Unfortunately, UCLA finds itself in a precarious spot when it comes to these rankings. Its impressive 2018 draft class is in its final year of inclusion. While this was a solid class with six players taken, their earliest pick came at the end of the third round. Kelly will need another really good draft class in order to stick in the rankings.

1280px-TCU_Horned_Frogs_logo

23. TCU Horned Frogs – 69 points
Previous: 24 (70 points)
Highest Draft Player – Jalen Reagor, 21st Overall, 2020
Yup. The Horned Frogs are still here. Don’t ask me how. TCU did not have a single player drafted in 2022. However, its 2017 draft class featured just one seventh-round pick, so the needle barely moved. What I think this underlines is how steep the drop off is from the top programs and the lack of depth in these rankings. Looking at the scoring past about 17, we are splitting hairs. However, TCU will be an interesting team to watch with Sonny Dykes now taking over as head coach. The Horned Frogs won’t be shut out again either with Quentin Johnston looking like a potential first-round pick in 2023.

Stanford Cardinal

23. Stanford Cardinal – 69 points
Previous: 17 (88 points)
Highest Drafted Player – Walker Little, 45th overall, 2021
Somehow, some way, Stanford is still hanging on. It was a very quiet draft weekend for the Cardinal with just one fifth-round selection this year. The future outlook for David Shaw’s program is not great. That being said, Tanner McKee is drawing some NFL buzz and if Davis Mills has shown us anything so far in his very brief NFL career, it might be good to stop doubting Shaw’s ability to find and develop pro talent.

23. Oregon Ducks – 69 points
Previous: NR (59 points)
Highest Draft Player – Kayvon Thibodeaux, 5th Overall, 2022
The quack is back. Well in the rankings at least. Kayvon Thibodeaux became the Ducks’ highest drafted player since Marcus Mariota in 2015. However, Thibodeaux was also the only Oregon player selected. On top of that, Mario Cristobal just left for Miami. However, there is no reason to panic. The 2018 draft class from Oregon was nothing spectacular and Dan Lanning arrived from Georgia. There is no question that Kirby Smart deserves credit for building that team, but hopefully, Lanning learned a lot from his former boss.

Others Receiving Votes: Wisconsin (67 points), South Carolina (66 points), Utah (62 points)

Dropped out: Utah (previous: 18), Wisconsin (previous: 22) UNC (previous: 25)

Note: All images courtesy of Wikimedia Commons

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Draft Season Never Ends: Way-Too-Early Top 5 Quarterbacks for the 2023 NFL Draft

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NCAAF, NFL, Podcast , , , , , , , ,

New episodes dropping every Friday! Football is finally back. Well, kind of. The Raiders and Jaguars kicked off the preseason with the annual Hall of Fame game on Thursday. With the season fast approaching, Chris breaks down his way-too-early rankings for the top quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL draft class.

You can find every episode on Anchor, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube or wherever you find your podcasts. As always, I appreciate reviews, feedback and when you hit that subscribe button.

NFL Draft Daily: Wrapping up my early look at the 2023 quarterback class

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NCAAF , , , , , , , , , , , ,

NFL Draft Daily looks at top stories, historical trends, player performances and more all through the lens of the NFL Draft. After all, there are only 328 days until the 2023 NFL Draft. Check back in tomorrow for another entry.

I’m finally back to wrap up these quarterbacks. Turns out I needed a little break after the draft and sometimes life has its way of throwing other things your way.

It’s time for Part 3 of my watchlist, which includes 36 quarterbacks in total. Part 1 featured a lot of big names and Part 2 had a number of guys that could make things interesting with a big year. Part 3 of this loaded class has a couple of wild cards heading into this year that I think could make some noise. My final group also includes a few guys that have a lot to prove this year or likely candidates to return to school for another season. Let’s dive into these final 10 QBs.

Clayton Tune, Houston
I definitely did not pick the best game to watch for Tune. He threw four interceptions in the season opener against Texas Tech in 2021. As it turned out, it would be one of just two losses for Houston all season, in part due to Tune’s impressive play. He finished the year with over 3,500 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. He cannot afford to have meltdowns like he did against the Red Raiders, where he was way too careless with the ball. Decision making can be improved though.

Payton Thorne, Michigan State
This final group is definitely not among the favorites to be selected early in the draft. Thorne is no exception. Following an impressive 2021 season, he will be on the radar at least heading into the 2023 draft. He has good touch on his throws, but lacks elite arm strength. He is a solid athlete showing his ability to make plays on read options this past year. He definitely benefited from a lot of short passes and screens in the Michigan State offense. I would like to see him hit some more NFL throws more consistently this year across the middle and in rhythm with his receivers. Those throws are there on his 2021 film, but few and far between.

Hank Bachmeier, Boise State
There was a time that I was very excited for Bachmeier to be draft eligible. The excitement has dropped off some, but he put together a solid junior season and I think could be in the mix as a late-round selection. He has a strong arm and throws a nice deep ball. The ball placement is a bit spotty at times. He has struggled with injuries, but he finally put together a full season in 2021. He is a decent scrambler, but he doesn’t do it too often. A bit undersized as well, he has a lot of questions to answer, but I like what he could become.

Jaren Hall, BYU
Meet Hall, your typical fifth-year junior. COVID has really messed up eligibility for a long time to come. On first watch, my initial assessment of Hall is that he is incredibly mobile and can throw on the run, but he is much less effective playing from the pocket. His accuracy is inconsistent and he overthrew a number of receivers downfield in the game I watched. That being said, I could see him having a ton of success in an offense that moves the pocket and allows him to roll out. It plays to his strengths and helps minimize the impact of his smaller frame.

Dylan Hopkins, UAB
Here’s a name you probably haven’t heard too much. Hopkins led UAB to a strong season with 18 touchdowns in his first full season as the starter. We don’t have a huge sample size with him given that he only attempted 235 passes last year. For reference, that’s less than half the number of attempts Bryce Young had in 2021. What I have seen is a player with a solid arm and a pretty deep ball. He also uses his eyes well to freeze or hold defenders. My concerns with Hopkins come to his mobility. He is not very quick in escaping the pocket and does not look overly comfortable throwing on the run. Hopefully, UAB will let him cut it loose a bit more often in 2022.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA
From a name you don’t know to one you have likely heard of. Thompson-Robinson, aka DTR, arrived at UCLA with a ton of fanfare. He has not quite delivered on the hype, but he has developed into a solid player. A clear dual-threat option, he is a really fun player to watch in the open field. His accuracy is a bit inconsistent, with him missing high on a number of occasions down the field. The throwing motion is a bit elongated as well. The physical traits are enticing, but I think he would really need to work on his mechanics to have a shot at the next level. He will need to be a bit more polished to garner attention heading into his fifth season with the Bruins.

Jayden Daniels, LSU
One of the most interesting transfers of this entire offseason, Daniels leaves an Arizona State program under fire for an LSU program that has a bit of a checkered history in its own right. One thing is undeniable though, Daniels will have weapons to work with in Baton Rouge. Kayshon Boutte and Jaray Jenkins are proven commodities at the college level. The Tigers have a few up-and-comers as well. Daniels will need to bounce back after throwing as many touchdowns (10) as he did interceptions in 2021. He has a very compact and quick throwing motion, but his footwork is a mess. The accuracy is good, but not great. I think it could improve with better footwork actually. As a runner, he is one of the best, scrambling to pick up extra yards and very capable on designed runs. He will get a chance to prove himself in the SEC this season.

Cameron Ward, Washington State
Hat tip to my favorite subreddit NFL_Draft for putting this guy on my radar. A former FCS quarterback at Incarnate Word, Ward won the Jerry Rice award. He has a very quick release and looks very comfortable playing from the pocket. Now, he will have a chance to prove himself in a Power Five conference after transferring to Washington State. He will get some real tests at Camp Randall this September and then in Pac-12 play. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stayed another year, but he has the potential to be an NFL quarterback.

Cade McNamara, Michigan
I had an old friend from high school reach out to me to ask why McNamara wasn’t part of my first two entries. After all, McNamara became the first Michigan quarterback to beat Ohio State since Denard Robinson. Plus, the Wolverines did reach the College Football Playoffs. McNamara undoubtedly benefits from a run-heavy scheme, but he is still talented. He lacks elite arm strength, but he has a nice deep ball. His release is a bit of a concern. His side-arm style leads to a number of passes to be batted at the line of scrimmage. I don’t think he will be garnering first-round attention, but he could be a late-round draft pick come April.

D.J. Uiagalelei, Clemson
I’m going to be completely honest. I forgot about Uiagalelei when I first started putting together my watch list. He went from the dazzling replacement to Trevor Lawrence to an afterthought in just one season. I still don’t know what happened to the guy who racked up 439 yards passing and three total touchdowns against Notre Dame in 2020. Looking at his 2021 tape, his accuracy is all over the place. His throwing motion is a bit elongated. As a runner, he has a bit of wiggle, but he is not a burner by any means. He doesn’t have as much power as you would expect for a player listed at 250 pounds either. There are still some special moments on film and his physical traits are great, but none of that is going to matter if he continues to complete 55 percent of his passes and throw only nine touchdowns to 10 interceptions.

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NFL Draft Daily: How an injury helped Aidan Hutchinson make nearly $30 million

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NFL , , , ,

NFL Draft Daily looks at top stories, historical trends, player performances and more all through the lens of the NFL Draft. After all, there are only 351 days until the 2023 NFL Draft. Check back in tomorrow for another entry.

Aidan Hutchinson’s 2020 season had barely gotten started when it abruptly ended. The junior outside linebacker suffered a broken ankle against Indiana that required surgery. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Big Ten did not start its season until October after initially canceling it altogether. In the end, Hutchinson had appeared in just three games, recorded nine tackles, no sacks and no tackles for loss. For a player hoping to make the NFL leap, there was not much positive momentum.

Still, there was some draft buzz surrounding Hutchinson. If memory serves, he was projected to go somewhere in the mid-to-late second round. Perhaps if he hadn’t hurt his ankle, he would’ve finished a bit stronger. A chance to test at the combine could have secured himself in that middle part of the second round. Even with the injury, Jim Nagy thought he would have been a Day 2 pick in June of 2021.

At this point, we all know what happened instead. Hutchinson underwent surgery on his leg, returned to school and finished as the runner up for the Heisman as Michigan made its first ever appearance in the College Football Playoff. He posted 14 sacks, 16 tackles for loss and forced two fumbles. He wound up being the No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft and will suit up for his hometown team this season.

We’ve seen it happen so many times before where a player is on the cusp of reaching the league, but an injury sends them back to school and their draft stock drops significantly. Hutchinson clearly bucked that trend, and that was not lost on him.

“I did have an opportunity to leave my junior year,” Hutchinson said in an interview with ESPN Radio’s Spain & Fitz. “That injury was the greatest blessing that happened to me in my life.”

It turned out that the injury ended up making Hutchinson about $30 million dollars. That’s right, the injury made him money, not lost him. It’s hard to know exactly where he would have been selected in 2021 had he come out, but make some assumptions and take a look at the finances.

Hutchinson helped lead Michigan to its first College Football Playoff appearance. (Wikimedia Commons)

If we assume that Nagy was right with his projected draft range, which he often is, Hutchinson could have come off the board instead of Dayo Odeyingbo in the second round. The Colts took the Vanderbilt defensive end coming off a torn Achilles, so I can’t imagine that a broken ankle alone would have prevented the front office from taking Hutchinson.

Odeyingbo signed a four-year deal worth roughly $6.17 million. According to Spotrac, about $2.8 million of that was guaranteed. Under the assumption above, that’s approximately what Hutchinson was in line for as far as contract compensation goes had he come out in 2021.

Instead, Hutchinson’s stellar senior season propelled him to the second pick in the draft and he cashed in. Hutchinson signed his rookie deal with the Lions on Monday for $35.7 million, including a $23.1 million signing bonus. By the way, that deal is fully guaranteed. That’s a difference of $29.5 million. He will be paid $23.8 million in cash this year, which is the second most in the entire league among defensive ends, second only to Travon Walker, who went No. 1 overall. Danielle Hunter is third at $19.7 million. Odeyingbo ranked 53rd among defensive ends last year. He ranks 106th this year.

That’s a staggering difference. And that’s just a rough estimate of the difference because Hutchinson could have slid even further if he was unable to participate fully in the pre draft process, including the combine and his pro day. Maybe teams would have knocked him for a lack of production. He only had 4.5 sacks during his 2019 season and didn’t record one in 2020 before he got injured.

It was a miraculous year for Hutchinson and I have no doubt his talent would have eventually won out. That being said, this is a truly unusual situation and it is nice to see an injury lead to something positive for once. Way too often, we see injuries derail careers. Hopefully, we will get more stories like Hutchinson’s in the future.

Follow the Aftermath via email to get every article delivered right to your inbox. Enter your email in the text box to subscribe. You can also follow us on Facebook and Twitter. You can also check out our weekly podcast Draft Season Never Ends with new episodes every Friday, available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube.

NFL Draft Daily: Comparing my Way-Too-Early 2022 Mock Draft to the actual NFL Draft

Chris McGlynn Draft, Football, NFL , , , , ,

NFL Draft Daily looks at top stories, historical trends, player performances and more all through the lens of the NFL Draft. After all, there are only 353 days until the 2023 NFL Draft. Check back in tomorrow for another entry.

It’s that time of year where we start the very early look at next year’s draft class. We get caught up in the appeal and excitement of what could be. I’m guilty of it. I just published my Way-Too-Early 2023 Mock Draft this past Monday.

However, I wanted to do something a little different. I want to compare my Way-Too-Early mock from last year to the actual draft. I think it is really interesting to compare expectations for teams and players to what actually happened in the past year. Hopefully, there are a few lessons I can learn in the process as well that will help me better identify prospects that are true first-round players.

There are some major takeaways here for sure. One, I thought this quarterback class was going to be good a year ago. Meanwhile, Travon Walker was not even on my radar. Good reminder to everyone that so much can change over the next year as we start to look ahead to 2023.

As a reminder, I did not set the draft order last year. It was the reverse Super Bowl odds at the time from William Hill with strength of schedule used as a tiebreaker. You can check out the mock for reference, but I listed all of the projected picks here as well. Let’s go back in time and take a look at how I did with my projections.

1. Way-too-early prediction: Houston Texans – Spencer Rattler, QB, Oklahoma
What happened to the player: Transferred to South Carolina
Actual selection: Jacksonville Jaguars – Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
Ah yes. May 2021. Back when we thought this was going to be a good quarterback class. Rattler was a Heisman candidate at Oklahoma and seemed poised to become the latest quarterback under Lincoln Riley to go No. 1 overall. Instead, he lost his job midseason to Caleb Williams and ultimately transferred to USC. I did not include him in my way-too-early mock for 2023, so he definitely has a ways to go to rebuild his draft stock. As for the Texans, they ended up picking just a couple spots later, but seem to have their quarterback to develop in Davis Mills.

2. Way-too-early prediction: Detroit Lions – Sam Howell, QB, UNC
What happened to the player: Drafted 144th overall by the Commanders
Actual Selection: Detroit Lions – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
This didn’t pan out too well either. Howell entered the year as one of the top quarterback prospects, but uneven play and a drop in production without his top weapons caused him to tumble all the way to the fifth round. I still think he fell further than he should have, but there is no question he is a bit of a project. That being said, as I talked about on my podcast last week, I think Howell could wind up being the Commanders starter in 2023. Turns out that William Hill was spot on with their odds. Detroit did in fact pick second and they still need a quarterback. It will be a big focus in the 2023 draft for the Lions.

3. Way-too-early prediction: Cincinnati Bengals – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
What happened to the player: Drafted 3rd overall by the Texans
Actual selection: Houston Texans – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Hang on, I’m going to play the lottery real quick. I can’t pat myself on the back too much, but Stingley entered the year as likely the No. 1 overall prospect. At worst, he was No. 2 behind Kayvon Thibodeaux. He was an elite prospect, but injury struggles seemed to be pushing him down draft boards. A fantastic pro day somehow rebuilt his draft stock to the point where he went back to being a top-five pick. The fact that the Bengals were slated to take him third overall is laughable now. Cincinnati reached the Super Bowl behind stellar seasons from Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase and an underrated defense. Cincy could still use some corner help, but obviously was nowhere close to being able to snag Stingley.

4. Way too-early prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
What happened to the player: Drafted 7th overall by the Giants
Actual selection: New York Jets – Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Another one that I feel pretty good about, Neal wound up going just a few spots later to the Giants on draft day. I still maintain that the Jaguars would have done well to take Neal and move on from Cam Robinson, but I digress. Neal delivered on the hype in his 2021 season, making the move to left tackle look fairly easy. As it turns out, Jacksonville was even worse than this, with the Urban Meyer experiment failing miserably. Now we will have to wait and see if the Jags can avoid becoming the first team to ever draft No. 1 overall three years in a row.

5. Way-too-early prediction: New York Jets – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
What happened to the player: Drafted 5th overall by the Giants
Actual selection: New York Giants – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
Right city, right draft slot, just wrong team on this one. The Jets ended up picking one selection earlier, in the end passing on Thibodeaux in favor of Ahmad Gardner. The Giants seem pretty happy with that. Thibodeaux came into the year as one of the best prospects in the draft. In fact, he was the top player at that point. He didn’t quite live up to the expectation, but he put together more than enough good tape to justify going in the top five.

6. Way-too-early prediction: New York Giants – Kedon Slovis, QB, USC
What happened to the player: Transferred to Pittsburgh
Actual selection: Carolina Panthers – Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
To quote myself from 2021: “If the Giants are picking this high, Daniel Jones’ days in New York are likely numbered.” Well after the team declined his fifth-year option, it sure seems like that is the case. However, the Giants opted not to take a quarterback in this class. Slovis wasn’t available anyway, because he didn’t enter the draft. This is a good reminder to not always bet that a player that flashed as a freshman will be able to sustain that. Slovis has come nowhere close to matching his 2019 production. He threw 30 touchdowns that year. He threw 28 in the next two combined. His completion percentage has also dropped each of the past two seasons. He can still turn things around, especially moving to a Pittsburgh program that just lost Kenny Pickett, but he has an uphill climb.

7. Way-too-early prediction: Philadelphia Eagles – Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
What happened to the player: Drafted 23rd overall by the Bills
Actual selection: New York Giants via Chicago Bears – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Give the Eagles some credit for way outperforming this projected draft slot. Philly was one of the surprises of the season as Jalen Hurts and company ended up reaching the playoffs. As it turned out, the Eagles ended up passing on Elam twice in the first round, before he finally landed with Buffalo. I think Elam was a bit overhyped in the offseason, but he was clearly still talented enough to go in the first round.

8. Way-too-early prediction: Las Vegas Raiders – DeMarvin Leal, DL, Texas A&M
What happened to the player: Drafted 84th overall by the Steelers
Actual selection: Atlanta Falcons – Drake London, WR, USC
Reviewing this is I think a microcosm for Texas A&M this past year: they were good, but not as great as we expected. Leal fits that description. He had a solid season, but fell well short of the expectations I had for him entering the year. He ended up going in the third round to the Steelers, which feels like a really good spot for him to develop. Meanwhile, the Raiders, much like the Eagles, shocked everyone by making the playoffs. I still don’t really know how, given how much of a mess the organization was all season.

9. Way-too-early prediction: Carolina Panthers – Zion Nelson, OT, Miami
What happened to the player: Returned to school
Actual selection: Seattle Seahawks via Denver Broncos – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
As it turns out, I had the Panthers targeting the right position here, just the wrong player. Oh and they ended up picking even earlier than this. Zion Nelson’s draft hype never really materialized in high level play. He was forced into the starting lineup as a freshman in 2019 and struggled mightily. He has improved since then, but I am excited to see what Mario Cristobal and his staff can do to aid his development. He definitely made the right call in returning to school.

10. Way-too-early prediction: New York Giants via Chicago Bears – Christian Harris, LB, Alabama
What happened to the player: Drafted 75th overall by the Texans
Actual selection: New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
I remember watching Christian Harris in 2020 and thinking “that guy plays linebacker?” He was built like an early 2000s safety, flying around the field and making plays. Unfortunately, flying around the field is what he does best. Harris struggles reading his keys and positioning himself to make players. He is athletic enough to compensate for that sometimes, but it hinders his game. I had him as a late-second-round prospect by draft day, but he slid into the third. As for the Bears, they wasted most of Justin Fields’ rookie season and might end up wasting his second year as well if they cannot put more talent around him.

11. Way-too-early prediction: Atlanta Falcons – Zach Harrison, EDGE, Ohio State
What happened to the player: Returned to school
Actual selection: New Orleans Saints via Washington Commanders – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
This was an example of assuming that Ohio State’s next five-star edge rusher up was going to continue on the trend of dominating when it was their turn. Nick Bosa did it in 2018. Chase Young did it in 2019. Harrison didn’t quite match those guys. He only posted two sacks in his junior season, showing a lack of true pass rushing polish that his predecessors had. He will have a chance to rewrite the scouting report on him during his senior season, but he will need to step up big time if he hopes to crack the first round. This ended up being pretty close to where the Falcons picked as well and they could still use edge rushing help, along with a lot of other things.

12. Way-too-early prediction: Washington Commanders – Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
What happened to the player: Drafted 74th overall by the Falcons
Actual selection: Detroit Lions via Minnesota Vikings – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Desmond Ridder had some late first-round hype around him heading into the 2021 draft, but decided to return to school. It didn’t quite workout as he would’ve wanted. It wasn’t that Ridder didn’t play well, it’s that NFL teams had a chance to really pick apart his game. He was not accurate enough to warrant going in the first round. He is a bit of a project at this stage, but there is still plenty to like about his game. One pick off for Washington’s original draft slot is pretty impressive by the folks at William Hill. Trading for Carson Wentz meant they didn’t have to get overly aggressive in drafting a quarterback. They wound up taking Sam Howell on Day 3 as well to give them a player to develop.

13. Way-too-early prediction: Minnesota Vikings – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
What happened to the player: Drafted 14th overall by the Ravens
Actual selection: Philadelphia Eagles via Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns – Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia
I ended up being just one pick off from where Hamilton was ultimately drafted. The Notre Dame safety slid to the Ravens after not running well at the combine. I was probably a bit lower on him than most in the early stages last season just because I am skeptical of taking safeties too high. Still it was a bit of a surprise to see him fall to the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Vikings were also just one slot off from their original selection before trading out with the Lions.

14. Way-too-early prediction: Arizona Cardinals – Drake Jackson, EDGE, USC
What happened to the player: Drafted 61st overall by the 49ers
Actual selection: Baltimore Ravens – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Arizona still struggled down the stretch, but got over the hump and made it to the postseason. The Cardinals got bounced in the first round, but it was progress. On the other hand Jackson entered the year with the expectation that he would take the next step in his development during a full season. He posted 11.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks as a freshman, but never quite matched those numbers again. He projects well as a situational rusher for the 49ers.

15. Way-too-early prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
What happened to the player: Drafted 9th overall by the Seahawks
Actual selection: Houston Texans via Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins – Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M
I ended up being six spots off where Cross ended up being selected. I think this would’ve been better value for him, as I didn’t quite have him in my top 10. Still, Cross ended up being one of the most experienced pass blockers to ever come out of the college ranks. He still has some fine-tuning in that department and is a relative unknown as a run blocker, but he checks every box from a physical perspective. On the Steelers’ side of things, they probably could have used some reinforcements along the offensive line. They outperformed expectations and actually reached the postseason.

16. Way-too-early prediction: Los Angeles Chargers – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
What happened to the player: Drafted 11th overall by the Saints
Actual selection: Washington Commanders via New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts – Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Well a receiver did end up going with the 16th overall pick. I just chose the wrong Big Ten school. I also find it hard to believe that this is the first receiver I had projected to come off the board. Not because Olave was undeserving, but because this ended up being a really good receiver class. Anyway, Olave ended up going five picks earlier as the third receiver to be selected. I’m sure Chargers fans would have loved him, but they never got the chance.

17. Way-too-early prediction: Tennessee Titans – George Pickens, WR, Georgia
What happened to the player: Drafted 52nd overall by the Steelers
Actual selection: Los Angeles Chargers – Zion Johnson, OL, Boston College
This one was undoubtedly all about projection. Pickens had just undergone ACL surgery when I wrote my way-too-early predictions for 2022. I assumed that his upside and physical attributes would be enough to keep him in the first round. Not quite as he went 35 selections later, so I guess I was about a round off on him. The Titans did end up drafting a receiver, but it was to replace A.J. Brown, not add around him like I had anticipated.

18. Way-too-early prediction: New England Patriots – Josh Jobe, CB, Alabama
What happened to the player: Signed as an undrafted free agent with the Eagles
Actual selection: Tennessee Titans via Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Woof this one was bad. Jobe was expected to be the next great Alabama corner, but he ended up going undrafted. It’s hard for me to understand exactly why he fell that far. He has measurables to play outside corner in the NFL, even if he did struggle a bit during his senior year. Not running at the combine makes me believe that there were some concerns about his speed and quickness. Still, most expected him to go in the fourth round. It was definitely a bit of a shock no one took a chance on him. Looking at the Patriots, they did need cornerback help and they still could probably use a bit more.

19. Way-too-early prediction: Philadelphia Eagles via Miami Dolphins – Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia
What happened to the player: Drafted 13th overall by the Eagles
Actual selection: New Orleans Saints via Philadelphia Eagles – Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
I wish I could’ve bet on this one way back then. Not that I would have because why on Earth would I have ever believed I would get this right, but the odds for Jordan Davis being selected by the Eagles a year later likely would have been incredible, assuming any sportsbook would have been willing to give them to me. Philly traded up a couple spots on draft day to land him. He will be the long-term replacement for Fletcher Cox. The Eagles did originally own the 19th pick, but flipped it to the Saints as part of a pre draft trade. Meanwhile, the Dolphins, who were expected to make the playoffs this past year, struggled out of the gate and never fully recovered.

20. Way-too-early prediction: Dallas Cowboys – Sevyn Banks, CB, Ohio State
What happened to the player: Transferred to LSU
Actual selection: Pittsburgh Steelers – Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
This was a swing and a miss. I actually heard from a bunch of Buckeye fans immediately after publishing last year that Sevyn Banks was being overhyped. Once I dove a little deeper into the film, I realized they were right. I got caught up in scouting the helmet, not the player on this one. I wasn’t alone. Banks was a popular inclusion in way-too-early mocks this time last year. He only played four games in 2021 and will now attempt to rebuild his draft stock at LSU. For the Cowboys, this was not too far off from where they ended up finishing even playing in the weakest division in the league.

21. Way-too-early prediction: New Orleans Saints – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
What happened to the player: Drafted 10th overall by the Jets
Actual selection: Kansas City Chiefs via New England Patriots – Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
So the Saints did wind up selecting a first-round receiver from Ohio State. I just didn’t have them taking the right one. Not that Wilson was even on the board when New Orleans ultimately picked at No. 11. He put together a fantastic junior season and pushed himself into the top ten. Personally, I’m thrilled he landed with the Jets. As far as expectations for the Saints, this was not too far off. They came close to the playoffs despite dealing with major injuries across their roster.

22. Way-too-early prediction: Indianapolis Colts – Thayer Munford, OT, Ohio State
What happened to the player: Drafted 238th overall by the Raiders
Actual selection: Green Bay Packers via Las Vegas Raiders – Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
In retrospect, this pick should have belonged to the Eagles. I fully expected Carson Wentz to meet the requirements to convey the Colts’ first-round pick. Simply an oversight on my part. Let’s talk about Indy though, because it definitely needed a new left tackle. The Colts brought in Eric Fisher as a stop-gap solution, and more recently drafted Bernhard Raimann to compete for the starting spot. As it turns out, Munford was not a great choice to fill that void. He ended up kicking inside to play guard during his senior season and fell to the seventh round. His versatility is undervalued and I think he will stick around the league for a while.

23. Way-too-early prediction: New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks – Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M
What happened to the player: Drafted 15th overall by the Texans
Actual selection: Buffalo Bills via Baltimore Ravens and Arizona Cardinals – Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
What a fall for the Seahawks. Seattle suffered through a lost season with Russell Wilson missing time due to injury only to ultimately trade him to the Broncos. Their own first-round pick, which belonged to the Jets as part of the Jamal Adams trade, became the 10th selection. Let’s just say I’m not complaining as a Jets fan. New York could have used a player like Green, but it is hard to fault Joe Douglas for how he handled the draft. The offensive lineman from Texas A&M ended up being gone by this point anyway.

24. Way-too-early prediction: Denver Broncos – Perrion Winfrey, DL, Oklahoma
What happened to the player: Drafted 108th overall by the Browns
Actual selection: Dallas Cowboys – Tyler Smith, OL, Tulsa
I was shocked by this in 2021 and I still can’t believe it now. William Hill had the Broncos at 20-1 odds to win the Super Bowl this time last year. That makes more sense with Russell Wilson at quarterback, but Drew Lock? Not really sure what happened there. Either way, Denver did need some help along the front seven and Winfrey seemed to be an ascending player. He actually did put together a much more impressive senior campaign with 11 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks but ended up sliding all the way to the fourth round. He could wind up being a very productive player in Cleveland.

25. Way-too-early prediction: Cleveland Browns – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
What happened to the player: Drafted 2nd overall by the Lions
Actual selection: Baltimore Ravens via Buffalo Bills – Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Speaking of the Browns, this is where they were expected to pick after a sensational 2020 season. That fell apart quickly as Baker Mayfield got hurt and the team seemingly never recovered. Then there is Hutchinson, who ended up soaring up draft boards thanks to a phenomenal senior season. He finished as the runner up for the Heisman and will now get to play the role of hometown hero with the Lions.

26. Way-too-early prediction: Green Bay Packers – John Metchie, WR, Alabama
What happened to the player: Drafted 44th overall by the Texans
Actual selection: New York Jets via Tennessee Titans – Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State
I should really know better by now. The Packers don’t draft receivers in the first round! In their defense, I think that was the right call this year after six of them went in the top 18 picks. I wonder if John Metchie might have worked his way into the first round had he not torn his ACL in the SEC title game against Georgia. He became Bryce Young’s go-to receiver this past season, catching 96 passes for over 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns. His speed is legitimate as well. The Texans might end up with a steal in the second round.

27. Way-too-early prediction: Baltimore Ravens – Cade Mays, G, Tennessee
What happened to the player: Drafted 199th overall by the Panthers
Actual selection: Jacksonville Jaguars via Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Injuries derailed the Ravens season, which was actually my rationale for mocking them to take Mays before the year even happened. Keeping Lamar Jackson healthy will be priority number one for Baltimore and likely a large part of the thinking into drafting Tyler Linderbaum in the first round. Mays ended up sliding all the way to the sixth round. He is a former five star recruit with experience at just about every position on the offensive line. I was definitely a bit too high on him entering the year, but he should have gone earlier than the sixth round in my opinion.

28. Way-too-early prediction: Detroit Lions via Los Angeles Rams – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
What happened to the player: Drafted 18th overall by the Titans
Actual selection: Green Bay Packers – Devonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia
There have been a few prospects that I projected to make the jump in 2021 that fell short of expectations. That was not the case with Burks. He took a huge step forward with over 1,200 yards from scrimmage and 15 total touchdowns in a fantastic campaign. He was a bit inconsistent and posted some questionable times at the combine, but clearly the Titans felt like he was going to be a worthy replacement for A.J. Brown. Looking at who this pick originally belonged to, William Hill was pretty close with the Rams. Matt Stafford and Von Miller just pushed them over the top.

29. Way-too-early prediction: Miami Dolphins via San Francisco 49ers – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
What happened to the player: Drafted 27th overall by the Jaguars
Actual selection: New England Patriots via Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers – Cole Stange, G, Chattanooga
Well William Hill was spot on for this one. This ended up being the 49ers pick, even if it did change hands several times before the selection was ever made. Lloyd was one of my favorite prospects heading into the 2022 draft cycle. That didn’t change at all and it turns out I just missed out on where he would go in the first round. I think there are big things to come from him in Jacksonville.

30. Way-too-early prediction: Buffalo Bills – Jalen Wydermyer, TE, Texas A&M
What happened to the player: Signed as an undrafted free agent with the Bills
Actual selection: Kansas City Chiefs – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
My second prediction that went horribly wrong. Wydermyer joins Josh Jobe among my first-round hopefuls that went undrafted. Wydermyer looked like the latest athlete to learn how to play tight end. His tape showed quickness and burst that made him seem like a player just scratching the surface of his potential. Then he actually went on to put up worse numbers in 2021 despite having two more games. He skipped running at the combine and then posted some horrible times at his pro day. I don’t exactly know what to make of him at this point, but this was a huge miss for me. Ironically, he did sign with the Bills.

31. Way-too-early prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
What happened to the player: Drafted 30th overall by the Chiefs
Actual selection: Cincinnati Bengals – Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
Another one where I was off by just one pick. Karlaftis enters the draft much like he entered his final college season, a developing player who has been unable to replicate his freshman year success. He managed to stay healthy in 2021, but his production did not bounce back all the way to his 2019 campaign. Still, he is an enticing prospect with his burst off the line and ability to disrupt plays. He needs to become a bit more disciplined in the run game, but there is clear upside. Tampa always loves grabbing edge rushers to develop. I think Karlaftis would have been a good fit there, but the Bucs traded out of the first round and he was gone by the time they were up again.

32. Way-too-early prediction: Kansas City Chiefs – Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
What happened to the player: Drafted 42nd overall by the Vikings
Actual selection: Minnesota Vikings via Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams – Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
I still wonder if Booth had been healthy enough to run at the combine if he would have pushed his way into the first round. He had a strong career at Clemson and did not go much later than this when the draft actually rolled around. Minnesota will be hoping he can finally put an end to the revolving door they have had at cornerback. The Chiefs came up just short of a third straight trip to the Super Bowl, blowing a lead that prompted them to trade up for some cornerback help in Trent McDuffie.

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