Year: 2015

Determining the NFL MVP

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , , , ,

Week 17 concludes the NFL season tomorrow and usually by this point, we all have a good sense of who the league MVP will be. For example, last year it was obvious that Peyton Manning would be named the most valuable player following his record-breaking performance where he topped the single season passing yards and passing touchdown records. Manning is still in the mix this year but it definitely not as clear-cut. I figured it would be fun to have a breakdown of some of the candidates for this year’s award.

We will stick with the reigning MVP from a year ago and start with Manning. The Broncos quarterback began the season right where he left off in the previous one (well minus the Super Bowl) and looked like he was on his way to his sixth MVP award. He averaged 305 yards and 3 touchdowns per game over the first seven he played. Then the Broncos visited New England and Peyton had his worst performance of the season at that time. In the seven games since the trip to Foxboro, Peyton has averaged only 269 yards and 2 touchdowns per game. Those are still good numbers, but they do not scream MVP either. Not to mention after throwing only three interceptions in the first seven games, he has thrown 12 in his last eight appearances. Sure Manning is still in the conversation but I do not think he is a legitimate contender this season. He does have a game against Oakland tomorrow, which he beat up to the tune of 340 yards and 5 touchdowns, but I do not think he will repeat the performance.

To another former league MVP, Aaron Rodgers might have the best chance to win this year’s trophy. He has been nothing but efficient so far this year, save two games in New Orleans and Buffalo. Rodgers got off to a “rocky start” or about as rocky as it ever gets for the Packers’ quarterback. Rodgers only has two games this year where he has thrown two interceptions. He has never thrown more than that all year and only has five in total on the season. Rodgers has also been the focal point of an offense that averages the second most points per game behind only the Patriots. The Packers’ game against Detroit tomorrow could be crucial to his MVP chances. He struggled the first time he played the Lions throwing for only 162 yards and 1 touchdown in a loss. Putting up a good performance against one of the best defenses in the league could cement Rodgers as the front-runner for the award.

It is time to look at the surprise of this year’s MVP race, Tony Romo. If I had told you this time last year that Romo would be a top candidate for this year’s award, you would have laughed at me. Romo has had a very good campaign though and has lead what many felt was a talent deprived Dallas Cowboys team to an 11-4 record so far this year. The things that stand out for Romo are his league leading completion percentage (70.3) his league leading yards per attempt (8.49) and his league leading quarterback rating (114.1). The things that hold Tony back are his yards per game average of 243, which ranks 18th in the league and the existence of Demarco Murray. Murray has rushed for the most yards in the league by over 400, which puts a bit of a damper on Romo’s campaign for most valuable player with teammate who has stolen a lot of the spotlight and offensive production. Still, Romo has a great touchdown to interception ratio (4:1) and has been stellar in the month of December. I think heading into the final week of the season, Romo is Rodgers’ greatest competition for the award.

We have a defensive player on this list as well. J.J Watt is having a season to remember, mainly due to the highlight reel has put on which includes two defensive scores and three offensive touchdown catches. Watt has been great though on the defensive side of the ball. He has recorded the most tackles by a defensive lineman this year, tied with Jason Pierre-Paul at 72. The Texans’ superstar also ranks second in sacks, just a half sack behind the league leader with 17.5 on the year. Watt also has the most pass deflections by a defensive lineman with ten. He has additionally racked up three forced fumbles and a league-high five fumble recoveries. The issue is that Watt has not done enough to even guarantee that his team will be in the playoffs. It is hard as a defensive player to make such a huge impact that you can carry your team. Watt definitely has my vote for defensive player of the year but I do not think he will be the league MVP.

I am including one darkhorse candidate as well who has not really garnered much media attention as an MVP option but I think he deserves to be in the conversation. LeVeon Bell has been the most complete back in the NFL this season. He rushed for over 1300 yards, caught 77 passes for 774 yards and scored 11 total touchdowns. His 1341 rushing yards rank second only behind Demarco Murray. His 77 receptions are tied for 21st among all players, not just running backs, and are the most by any back. His 774 receiving yards also rank second only behind Matt Forte among running backs. His 4.8 yards per carry land him third among players with more than 200 attempts. Bell also has not fumbled the ball this season. So, the guy never turns the ball over and he has generated more yards from scrimmage than any other player except Murray, by only 35 yards mind you. Bell racked up over 225 yards of offense and accounted for 3 total touchdowns the last time he met the Bengals. If he can even come close to reciprocating those numbers, he has a chance at being in the conversation for MVP.

There are other players you can make cases for in the MVP race, (most notably Tom Brady or Murray) but these are the ones I think have the best chance to win it. It will be interesting to see how Week 17 affects this tight race. I am curious to know who you think should be the MVP. Feel free to comment and tell me why. Enjoy watching on Sunday.

Is it time for Kobe to give it up?

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA ,

It’s no secret that the Los Angeles Lakers are bad this year. LA is tied with Utah as the second worst team in the Western Conference. The Lakers are 6.5 games out of a playoff spot already, missing its coveted rookie Julius Randle and allowing the most point per game by any team in the league. It has been a rough year. Through all of its previous struggles, LA still has had its Golden Boy, Kobe Bryant. But the Golden Boy is starting to fade.

Bryant’s scoring, rebounding and assist numbers are pretty much on par with his career averages but his shooting is worse than ever. Kobe has been accused of being a bit of a ball hog in his time in the NBA but now more than ever he is taking even more shots. Maybe that is a product of the mostly average, if not mediocre supporting cast Bryant has played with this season. It should not mean that Bryant needs to be taking 22 shots per game. That is three more than Kobe has average throughout his career up to this point. That is not a huge difference, but it hasn’t led to any more production from the Lakers’ guard. He is shooting at a miserable career low 37.2% from the field. Bryant is only one of two players in the league taking at least twenty shots a game. The other is LaMarcus Aldridge and he is shooting converting on 45.1% of his attempts, well above Kobe’s conversion rate. Kobe is making the same number of shots he always has on even more attempts. Maybe it’s time to start spreading the ball around a bit more.

Several of Bryant’s teammates have that idea themselves. Lakers’ point guard Jeremy Lin told the press after Kobe missed his second game winning shot in a week that he, Lin, would like to have the opportunity to take a buzzer beater. Another Laker, Nick Young actually has had some success taking crucial late-game shots and has expressed that he would like a couple more touches himself. Clearly, I am not the only who thinks taking the ball out of Kobe’s hands might be worth some consideration.

It’s not as if the 18-year veteran is the picture of perfect health either. The Lakers have begun sitting Bryant just to rest him and he is still not completely back to the form he had prior to tearing his Achilles tendon. Slowly but surely, Kobe is seeing his game decline. He might have finally topped Michael Jordan on the scoring list but that is not a testament to his current skill. He simply played long enough to hit that mark. It definitely underlines his longevity in the league but that tenure has to be reaching an end.

The Lakers have looked better without Bryant in some games this year, including a win this week over Golden State. Los Angeles showed the opposite though tonight in a twenty-point loss in Chicago. The truth is that having the third all-time scorer no longer makes a major difference. The Lakers are not any better with Bryant in the lineup than they are without him in the lineup. But at the same time, sitting Kobe does not benefit them either. Sure, he can score, but he cannot score as effectively anymore which, in many ways, mitigates the scoring capabilities Bryant brings. He could try becoming more of a distributor but that seems incredibly unlikely because of his confidence in his shot as well as the marginal talent around him. This year will be just a year for the Lakers to see if there is anyone on the current roster to keep past this season.

I think Kobe should just retire following the end of this season. He might be under contract for the following season as well but, his game is deteriorating and it does not seem too likely that the Lakers will be making any shocking turn around next season either. This team is going to need to build through the draft and hope it can land a big name star in the 2016 free agency class. I think Kobe should just go out before it gets even uglier than it already has become. It definitely will not be getting any better. I know this guy is an incredible competitor but even the best have to know when it is time to hang them up and step away for good. Kobe won’t be doing himself or his team any good coming back for another year. That’s my take on the aging Lakers’ star. Let me know if you share my opinion.

AFC playoff scenarios

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , , , , , ,

Week 17 in the NFL is approaching quickly and while the playoff picture is beginning to take shape, there is still a lot of shuffling around that can occur. I am going to take some time here to explain all of the scenarios and then tell you which I think is the most likely.

Here is what we already know: New England has secured the number one seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Even if they lose this weekend to Buffalo and Denver wins against Oakland, the Patriots have the advantage with a victory over Denver earlier this season. Outside of that, the Broncos, Steelers, Colts and Bengals have all also earned playoff berths. The only one cemented into a spot is Indianapolis who has grabbed the fourth seed.

Here is what is still undetermined, the seeding for numbers two, three, five and six, not to mention who will be the sixth seed. I will start from the top and work my way down. First, Denver can clinch a first round bye with either a win over the Raiders or a loss or tie by the Bengals against the Steelers. This is probably how things shake out. Oakland has played better recently but I don’t think the Broncos will lose to a division rival at home with so much on the line.

Cincinnati can nail down the third seed if they beat Pittsburgh on the road this Sunday. A Bengals loss would mean a drop to the fifth seed and a trip to Indianapolis rather than hosting the eventual sixth seed. I think it’s likely for Cincy to come up short based on the last match up between these two teams, where Pittsburgh ran away with it late. That being said, if the Steelers win as I think, Pittsburgh would be the third seed and play host to the eventual sixth seed. If the Black and Gold fall however, their fate is a road trip to play Andrew Luck. Neither Pittsburgh nor Cincinnati can be caught by another team and drop lower than the fifth seed.

The sixth seed is an absolute toss-up. There are four teams alive for the final spot including San Diego, Baltimore, Kansas City and Houston. For the Charges, a win means a playoff berth. It is as simple as that. If the Bolts can knock off the Chiefs in Kansas City than San Diego will be heading to either Pittsburgh or Cincinnati for a wild card match up. I think this is the most likely scenario to play out. The Chargers have been a good team down the stretch while the Chiefs have struggled to find an offense outside of Jamal Charles. The Chiefs could make it with a win over San Diego and losses by both the Ravens and Texans. Seeing as Kansas City needs the most outside help, I don’t see a playoff appearance happening.

Those Texans are still alive and have a tiebreaker over the Ravens after beating them this past weekend. But Houston needs help from Cleveland, who must defeat Baltimore for that tiebreaker to mean anything. The Texans also need to make sure not to slip up against division rival Jacksonville. Meanwhile, Ravens fans will be rooting for both their team and the Chiefs this weekend, as that is their team’s recipe for playoff life. I think the Ravens will win at home versus the Browns but I just don’t see the Chargers losing meaning Baltimore will be kept out of the playoffs for the second year running.

That’s all the possible scenarios here. So my wild card round matchups would be the Steelers hosting the Chargers and Cincinnati trekking out to Indianapolis to play. Keep an eye for first round predictions once the playoff field is set. To see the NFC playoff scenarios, click here. Hope you enjoy this final week of regular season football.

NFC Playoff Scenarios

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , , , ,

Week 17 in the NFL is approaching quickly and while the playoff picture is beginning to take shape, there is still a lot of shuffling around that can occur. I am going to take some time here to explain all of the scenarios and then tell you which I think is the most likely.

Here is what we already know: five of the six teams getting into the playoffs have been figured out. Seattle, Dallas, Arizona, Detroit and Green Bay have all earned playoff berths. That is about all that has been determined in the NFC. There is an incredible amount of moving around that can occur in the final week. Let’s start looking at some of the possibilities.

For Seattle, a win would mean home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Seahawks control their destiny and beating Saint Louis at home on Sunday would make Seattle a legitimate threat to return to the Super Bowl as long as the Packers and Lions do not tie this weekend and Dallas does not win. That is really specific but that would give the Cowboys a tiebreaker over Seattle. The Seahawks can still hang on to a home playoff game even with a loss to the Rams if the Cardinals lose as well but the Hawks would not have a first round bye. I think a Seahawks win is the most likely outcome. The Rams have been up and down all year and Seattle seems to be hitting its stride.

Dallas is in a weird spot between the first, second and third seed. Jerry Jones’ team can’t go any lower. A win over Washington is essential and the only way Dallas earns the first seed is if the Lions and Packers tie this weekend while Seattle wins or Arizona loses. It is an odd scenario that would trigger a tiebreaker over Seattle because Dallas beat them head to head but lost to Arizona. That means Dallas would need Seattle to win the division so that the tiebreaker with the Cardinals does not come into effect. The Cowboys need a lot of help too to get that second seed. With a Cardinals loss and a Seahawks loss on Sunday the Cowboys would lock up a first round bye, even if Washington beats them. Dallas could also end up second if the Lions and Packers tie, the Cardinals win and the Seahawks win. The Cowboys will more likely be playing as the third seed come wildcard weekend as I don’t see both Arizona and Seattle falling or a tie in the NFC North title game. I do think Dallas will trounce Washington though to gain momentum going into the playoffs.

The Lions have quietly lined themselves up for home field advantage this season. Detroit will finish as the first seed with a victory in Green Bay and a loss by the Seahawks. Most of what happens to the Lions depends on a win over the Packers. Even if Seattle wins, Detroit will still have a first round bye if it holds off Aaron Rodgers and company. A loss at Lambeau will set the Lions back to a wildcard spot as the sixth seed. Detroit cannot earn the fifth seed because of tiebreakers the Cardinals and Seahawks hold. A tie against Green Bay could make things weird. Detroit would win the division but would be stuck as the third seed if Dallas and Arizona or Seattle wins. That is extremely unlikely but it could happen. Unfortunately for Lions’ fans, sixth is where I think Detroit will finish. Winning at Lambeau field has been a tough thing to do for a very long time, especially against Aaron Rodgers.

The Cardinals will need a win over the 49ers but must rely on some outside help to get a first round bye. Assuming Arizona wins, then Seattle must fall in Saint Louis and the Lions must win in Lambeau for the Cards to clinch home field advantage. Bruce Arians’ squad has a tiebreaker over the Lions but not over the Packers, meaning a Detroit win is pivotal for the Cardinals chances. A loss against the 49ers would mean being the fifth seed or even the sixth seed if the Packers and Lions tie. Arizona will win the division with a win or tie and a Seattle loss. A tie against San Francisco plus a Dallas and a Detroit or Green Bay win would make the Cardinals the third seed. All these potential ties make the NFC a crazy place. I think Arizona finishes as the fifth seed based on a likely Seattle victory no ties between Detroit and Green Bay.

Speaking of the Packers, Green Bay has a lot of shuffling to do. A win over Detroit means a division title and a first round bye with a Seattle win. If Seattle loses, then Green Bay has home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Arizona’s result does not matter due to a Packers’ tiebreaker. With a loss or a tie though, Green Bay would be a wildcard. A loss will mean the Pack is the sixth seed. A tie and a loss by either Arizona or Seattle would give the Packers the fifth seed. I think the Packers will win but so will Seattle meaning Green Bay will finish as the second seed.

The fourth playoff seed is the easiest one to figure out. If the Panthers win or tie with Atlanta then Carolina wins the NFC South and plays as the fourth seed. If the Falcons win then Atlanta is the NFC South champion and fourth seed. Finally, something is simple. I think Atlanta wins this game. Matt Ryan has been on a bit of a tear recently and the defense looks solid.

That’s all the possible scenarios here. So my wild card round matchups would be the Cowboys hosting the Lions and Arizona visiting Atlanta to play. Keep an eye for first round predictions once the playoff field is set. To see the AFC playoff scenarios, click here. Hope you enjoy this final week of regular season football.

Nets looking to restart?

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA , , , , ,

The rumors have quieted a little bit but apparently, the Brooklyn Nets might be looking to hit the reset button. The Nets front office locked up what was occasionally referred to as “The Big 5.” It began years ago when the Nets picked Brook Lopez in the 2008 NBA Draft. Brooklyn traded with Utah back in 2011 to land Deron Williams. The front office stepped up and traded for Atlanta’s Joe Johnson in 2012. The Nets finished collecting superstars in 2013 when they made a draft night trade to acquire Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce from the Boston Celtics. This group has been together for less than two full years. That is a pretty small window of opportunity to prove that this group win a title, but it seems like they are running out of time fast.

Pierce already jumped ship and joined the Washington Wizards as a free agent this past off-season. Lopez has been injury prone playing only 33 games since the start of last season. Williams’ ankles have rendered him slow and unable to cope with the same number of minutes he once played. Garnett is starting to show his age. Not many players can still contribute at 38 years old. Johnson is the only one who has continued to perform in a Nets uniform into 2014. He is the only one of this starting five (well now four with Pierce gone) that I can see staying with the Nets past this years’ trade deadline. At least the only one the Nets might want to keep. Plus, his contract is difficult to move. Lopez might not be able to be moved because of his injury history. Brooklyn should find suitors for Garnett and Williams. Neither one of them can carry a team the NBA anymore but they can both contribute to a title contending team. Here is where I could see those two moving.

Williams could go to another team in the Eastern Conference such as Indiana who has been devastated by injuries at guard this year. Williams could also move to the other team from the Eastern Conference Finals last season in Miami. The Heat has been looking for an upgrade at point guard over Mario Chalmers for years. Shabazz Napier could become that player in a few seasons but he is not that player right now. Houston has been busy recently with trades but it could potentially be in play for a move for Williams. Having him setting James Harden and Dwight Howard is a scary thought. I think the most likely possibility here is Miami as they are the ones with the most tradable pieces.

For Lopez, if he is moved. I could see him landing in Golden State. The Warriors tried hard to land Kevin Love but instead they could land Lopez and make a title run if he can stay healthy. The Lakers have also been in the market for anyone who is not currently under contract. Getting a big man who can score in the paint won’t get the Lakers to the playoffs but it will get them on the right track and maybe help them acquire another big name player in the off season. The Suns could also be in play for Lopez. Phoenix could use an upgrade at center and could move Eric Bledsoe finally as has been rumored for about a year now.

Lastly, Garnett might find his way back to one of his former teams. I could see him playing for either Minnesota or Boston in his final few seasons as a way for the organizations draw fans while they rebuild. I could also see him joining Toronto if it chooses to add another frontcourt weapon before making a playoff run. The Raptors currently sit atop the Eastern Conference but a deeper team featuring Amir Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas and Garnett rotating in could be scary for teams to deal with.

I don’t know if the Nets organization will definitely hit the panic button and restart but I think it might be a wise move. The longer this team stays together, the more Brooklyn is putting off attempting to find young talent to replace this aging crew. I think the Nets need a fresh start. Building around Joe Johnson for the time being could be the plan. They might also hope that building around Lopez is still an option. Either way, this team needs to start moving in a different direction.