NBA

Why even bother?

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA , ,

I was looking through the list of NBA champions last week when writing my commemoration to Moses Malone. While I was looking over that list, I noticed an interesting trend among NBA champions, one that I thought was kind of troubling.

The_NBA_Finals_logoWhat I am going to tell you will significantly help you in determining who will be meeting in the NBA Finals after the playoff field is set.

The NBA seeds it’s playoff teams one through eight in each conference at the end of the season. Theoretically, everyone has a chance to win the championship but looking at NBA history, that doesn’t seem to be statistically true. The likelihood that an eighth-seeded team winning the championship based on NBA history is zero.

1995NBAFinalsThere has never been an eight seed to win the NBA Finals. In fact there has never been a seven, five or four seed to win the title either. Only one time in the last 65 years that a team not seeded one through three has taken home the trophy. That only time came 20 years ago when the Houston Rockets won the title as the sixth-seeded team in the West. That is even more impressive when you consider that back then, each conference only sent six teams from each conference.

Getting to the finals is almost impossible for teams outside of the top three as well. Granted the NBA has only sent eight teams from each conference starting in 1984 but over the last 31 years, only four times in that span has a team seeded outside of the top three even made it to the finals. Those same Rockets were the first and then four years later, the Knicks shocked everyone as the only eight seed to ever make it to the finals. The Mavericks in 2006 and the Celtics in 2010 remain the only teams not seeded in the top three to qualify for the playoffs in that time span.

Before that, the trend wasn’t much better despite having fewer teams. The Seattle Supersonics in 1978 made the Finals as a four seed. The Rockets preceded their eventual underdog win with a trip to the Finals in 1981. They round out the list of just six teams outside of the top three to make the finals.

NBA logoIt has gotten to a point where you have to wonder if teams should even bother trying. Obviously, everyone will because you never know what might happen but overall, the odds are so stacked against teams that haven’t locked up a top three seed. There have been 248 teams to enter the playoffs as the bottom four seeds over the past 31 years. Just one of those teams has made it to the Finals (the 1999 Knicks).

The best teams in the league are supposed to move on to the Finals but it is staggering how much the seeding plays a roll in who make it to the championship round. You have to wonder if the NBA could find a way to make the playoffs more level. There probably isn’t much and we still see teams that are the lower seeds upsetting higher seeds. They just never seem capable of doing anything past that.

Part of the problem is the tendency for NBA superstars to team up and create super teams. That means that these lower seeded teams are either very young or completely lack the talent to compete. It is a product of the NBA’s roster structure. It is not necessarily a bad thing, it is just how the league tends to run.

It is also a product of having seven game series. Just because a team has a bad night does not mean they are out of the postseason. They have a number of opportunities to regain their ground and aren’t like to have four bad games against a lower level team. That limits an underdogs chance to advance because they need to outplay what is considered a superior team four times, rather than just one.

There always has to be a time where the underdog wins. It just makes sense. However, until it finally happens, you have to wonder why even bother. The chance that these teams make it to the Finals is low. The chance that they win the NBA Title, close to impossible. Yet it is sports so the manta “any given Sunday” will continue to drive underdogs. That is the beauty of sports.

Just an interesting trend I noticed that definitely tell you a lot about the NBA.

Remembering Moses

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA , , , ,

Sad news reached those in the NBA community on Sunday. Hall of Famer Moses Malone passed away at the age of 60. Malone was one of the greatest basketball players of all time and became the first ever player to jump from high school to the pros. His passing inspired me to rank the five greatest centers the NBA has ever seen. Let’s see if you agree.

Honorable Mention: Bill Russell, Celtics

Hakeem Olajuwon5. Hakeem Olajuwon, Rockets
This man spent 17 dominant years in Houston, racking up boards and rejecting shots. Olajuwon won back to back titles with the Rockets in 1994 and 1995. He currently sits tenth all-time for point in a career and fifth among centers. The Houston legend also holds the record for most blocks in an NBA career by a considerable margin. He posted a stellar shooting percentage as well hitting 51.2 percent for his career. Olajuwon was at his peak from 1992 to 1996, when he averaged 27 points per game along with 11.7 rebounds and 3.6 blocks per game over a four-year period. Following the 1994 season, he was named the league MVP. That resume got him into the Hall of Fame as well. There is no doubt that Olajuwon deserves to be on this list.

Moses_Malone4. Moses Malone, 76ers
He was known for playing in a lot of different places but his time in Philadelphia was probably his most notable. His first year in Philly, Malone put up the ridiculous stat line of 24.5 points, 15.3 boards and 2 swats a night over the course of the 1982 season, ending in MVP honors. He and the Sixers went on to take home the NBA title that year. Before moving to Philly, Malone was like Olajuwon; Moses spent some time in Houston where he won his first two MVP awards. He still ranks fifth in history in rebounds. Malone retired in 1995 and was, at the time, the third best scorer of all-time. The two men he was still behind are further up on this list. Rest in peace, Chairman of the Boards.

Los Angeles Lakers Shaquille O'Neal 1999 (1999 - 2000 Season)3. Shaquille O’Neal, Lakers
Probably one of the most famous players in the last two decades, Shaq terrorized teams with his monster dunks and enormous size. He is obviously a bit of a goof in the media nowadays and is often remembered for the last few years he played where he didn’t do much. However, O’Neal dominated the NBA during his time in both Orlando and Los Angeles. From 1993 to 2003, Shaq averaged at least 26.2 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. He dominated the league for a decade, including 1999 in LA when he posted 29.7 points, 13.6 rebounds and three blocks a night resulting in him being named the MVP for that season. He won three straight titles with the Lakers and picked up a fourth in Miami a few years later. Shaq is currently the NBA’s sixth leading scorer all-time but probably ranks as the third best center to wear a Lakers’ uniform.

Kareem Abdul Jabbar2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
You could argue he should be number one. After all he played 20 seasons in the NBA and is the league’s all-time leading -scorer. He also has the third most rebounds and the third most blocks ever. “The Dream” as he was called, holds the record as well for the most MVP awards with six in his long career. He also won six league titles over the course of his two decades of play. However, Abdul-Jabbar also played alongside some of the other greatest players of all-time. He played for six years in Los Angeles before they finally won a title. They finally won when Magic Johnson showed up and later James Worthy joined them. He carried the Bucks to the title in ’71 but he had a lot of help winning the rest of the titles. Help was something the number one man on our list neither had nor needed.

Wilt Chamberlain1. Wilt Chamberlain, 76ers/Warriors
With Abdul-Jabbar’s resume, you have to wonder how he is not number one on this list. Let me tell you why. Wilt Chamberlain dominated basketball when he played. Between 1959 and 1966, Chamberlain scored less than 33.5 points per game once. He might only have four MVP awards to Abdul-Jabbar’s six but Chamberlain had a much more impressive career. He won MVP following his rookie campaign, which is unheard of. He then went on to score 50.4 points per game during the 1961 season. Later in his career, his scoring dropped down to much more reasonable numbers but that was more because he became an excellent passer. Chamberlain averaged 8.6 assists per game in 1967, while still scoring 24.1 points a night. That year, the 76ers won the championship and represented the middle of Wilt’s three straight years as the MVP. If that hasn’t sold you enough, compare their per game stats where Chamberlain averaged 6.5 more points and 11.7 more rebounds per game than Abdul-Jabbar. He remains the NBA’s all-time leader in rebounds and still holds the record for most points in a game. Without a doubt, I am picking Wilt “The Stilt” Chamberlain as the greatest center to ever take the floor in NBA history.

Note: Back in the time of Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain, blocks were not an official NBA stat, so their is no data on how well the two protecting the rim.

Is this the second coming of the Dream Team?

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA , , , , , ,

Dream Team JordanPretending that this team is as good as the “Dream Team” from 1992 is probably pushing it. However, if you can march out a starting lineup that consists of Chris Paul, James Harden, Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Anthony Davis, who are you going to lose to? Even if those guys need a rest, you can roll out a lineup of Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMarcus Cousins. Even that lineup isn’t getting beat by anyone else in the world.

This is the most talent in a US camp that we’ve seen in quite some time. We just watch Team USA lose to Canada in the Pan-American games. And it wasn’t even in the finals. That team consisted on many college players, led by Ron Baker and Melo Trimble. The players who were already pros on that squad were Anthony Randolph and Ryan Hollins from the NBA and a few others hailing from overseas leagues. It has been some time since we’ve seen a top flight USA team.

LeBron_James_Even in 2014, when the USA won the FIBA World Cup yet again, some of the top end talent was not there. James, Durant and Paul were all watching from home. That’s three fifths of a potential starting lineup. Like I said, the US still dominated the competition. They won their five group play games by an average of 33.2 points per game. Every other team in their group finished with a negative point differential as well due to the massive losses at the hands of the US. In bracket play, the US’ closest game came in the quarterfinals against Mexico, and the US won by 23. It was a landslide the whole way.

Chris PaulIt begs the question of does the US need to send an even more stacked team to the 2016 Olympics in Brazil next summer? Obviously, any team can lose on any day but sending in even more reinforcements seems like overkill. We all saw what can happen to stars trying to play at the international level when Paul George careened into the barrier and destroyed his knee. That could very well happen to any of the other superstars walking out on the court. They could suffer a serious injury in a game that really could be won without them.

Stephen_Curry2Now if everyone left it would be an issue but for guys like Durant and George who are coming off major injuries that prevented them from participating in most of the previous NBA season, is this worth the risk? Both of them are in camp with the team, which doesn’t guarantee they will be playing in Rio but the possibility is there. I’m sure Oklahoma City and Indiana would both prefer if their two star players rested up and trained on their own, preparing to be on the court in the NBA this season. (Side note: George has since left camp.)

Anthony_DavisI know I sound critical of the best players participating on Team USA. The truth is that not all of that star power is needed to win an Olympic Gold for the US. However, that doesn’t mean it won’t be a ton of fun to watch these guys play together. It will almost be like the NBA All Star game but this time the outcome has some consequence. It should be an offensive barrage as well making the game just that much more entertaining. Those five guys, Paul, Harden, Durant, James and Davis scored a combined 118 points per night in the NBA this season. They obviously all can’t hit those numbers now as their usage ratings combine to reach 144 percent.

Harden_DurantIt may be a risk but it is one that we as fans of basketball should hope they continue to take. There have been some new precautions taken to avoid repeats of George’s gruesome injury. And if we get to see the best US players on the court together dominating it will be a sight to behold, even if games are blowouts. It probably couldn’t touch the “Dream Team” from ’92 but there is a good chance this will be the most talented team Team USA assembles since that point. That final 12-man roster is going to be stacked.

Landing spots for top NBA free agents

Chris McGlynn Basketball, Free Agency, NBA , , , , ,

Just 24 hours. That’s all that remains between now and the start of NBA free agency. It seems that every year now serves up a bunch of all stars hitting the open market. Part of that is just how the NBA is structured. Here is where a number of this year’s top players should end up when free agency is all said and done.

Some thoughts before I begin. I really like Boston landing Tobias Harris. He would be a great young piece for the Celtics to include as they continue to rebuild. Paul Millsap, Kawhi Leonard and Enes Kanter should all stay with their current teams. As should DeAndre Jordan and Tyson Chandler. Now to the really big names.

Kevin_Love_CavsKevin Love
2014 team: Cleveland Cavaliers
2015 team: Indiana Pacers
I have talked about this before. Love did not f    it into the Cleveland offense. He struggled as he became solely a jump shooter. He still performed decently well given the circumstances. He opted out of his deal to give the Cavs some financial flexibility and I think he will return to Cleveland. However, I think he should head to Indiana. David West just opted out of his contract and the Pacers are looking to unload Roy Hibbert. Sounds like they are going to need a lot more rebounding going forward. Love provides that plus tons of scoring potential for a team that finished 24th in points per game a year ago. I like Love playing with a great setup man in George Hill and a guy who can thrive off the ball in Paul George. This could be a good step in Indiana returning to the playoffs.

Jimmy Butler
2014 team: Chicago BullsBulls during_a_timeout
2015 team: Dallas Mavericks
Butler is going to demand a max deal from whoever signs him, which makes a return to the Bulls difficult due to their financial constraints. He could go to Indiana if they don’t land Love and continue to thrive in a defensive system. The best place for him though would be Dallas. Butler would land with a contender out west in desperate need of a defensive injection. You can bet that Rajon Rondo and Monta Ellis are not coming back next season so that should provide the financial flexibility needed to sign him. Butler would add a lockdown defender to a team that allowed the sixth most point per game a season ago. The 25-year old would be a much needed piece to help Dallas push toward another title with Nowitzki still in town.

Dwyane_WadeDwyane Wade
2014 team: Miami Heat
2015 team: Anyone but Miami (Atlanta Hawks)
Team basketball has been what Dwayne has been about for the last dozen years and what Atlanta put into practice last season. Miami isn’t willing to pay Wade for his services but you can bet Atlanta would love to nab the aging superstar. Paying Wade shouldn’t be too much of a problem with Demarre Carroll and Elton Brand likely not coming back. The Hawks have a ton of depth meaning Wade could play only 28 minutes a game and the team would not tank. Keeping Wade healthy will be easy and Atlanta would have a proven scorer to turn to when at clutch time in the playoffs. The whole Cleveland series seemed to be the Hawks looking for someone to step up. Wade has no problem doing that and could make Atlanta the favorite in the east next season.

LaMarcus_AldridgeLaMarcus Aldridge
2014 team: Portland Trailblazers
2015 team: Portland Trailblazers
At 29-years old, Aldridge isn’t getting any younger. Obviously, he still has some good years left in him but the clock is ticking. That would make you think he would try to bolt to another team poised for a title run. The best thing though would be to stay in Portland. Damian Lillard is still improving and if Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews return on similar deals to last year this team could be in a good position to compete again in the west. Obviously, this isn’t as fun as seeing Aldridge go to the Lakers, the Knicks or even the Spurs but it makes a lot of sense for Aldridge and the Trailblazers. They just brought in some really good depth in Mason Plumlee and Pat Connaughton. Give this core a year or two and they could one of the top teams in the rugged west.

Marc GasolMarc_Gasol
2014 team: Memphis Grizzlies
2015 team: Milwaukee Bucks
Michael Carter-Williams, O.J. Mayo, Giannis Antetokoumpo, Jabari Parker and Marc Gasol. That would be quite the starting lineup. Gasol is one of, if not the best passing big in the game right now. He averages almost four assists per night and should ignite Milwaukee’s offense. This team made the playoffs as the sixth seed without Parker last season. Bring in Gasol to play with a healthy Parker and suddenly the frontcourt for the Bucks looks drastically better. This move makes a lot of sense too with Larry Sanders leaving in the middle of last season. Zaza Pachulia is nothing special, Gasol is. With a ton of depth on the roster already, the Bucks could become a contender in the east within a year or two with Gasol as the centerpiece.

NBA Draft Rapid Reactions

Chris McGlynn Basketball, Draft, NBA, NCAAM ,

The draft is barely in the books but it is time to react to all that happened tonight. There were plenty of winners and losers and even more head scratching selections. The implications going forward are huge as well. Let’s get started.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Selections: Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky, Tyus Jones, PG, Duke
Towns will be a superstar and compares well to another Timberwolf in Kevin Garnett. He, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine give the Wolves an exciting young core to build around. The Jones selection is a little troubling. He is unproven and Minnesota has a number of young guards.

Los Angeles Lakers
Selections: DeAngelo Russell, PG, Ohio State, Larry Nantes Jr., PF, Wyoming, Anthony Brown, SF, Stanford
The Lakers made the right choice in selecting Russell. He and Julius Randall certainly give the Lakers some hope for the future. Nantes and Brown infuse some youth and some potential into a team that desperately needs it.

Philadelphia 76ers
Selections: Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke, Richaun Holmes, PF, Bowling Green, Arturuas Gudaitas, C, Lithuania, J.P. Tokoto, SG, UNC, Luka Mitrovic, PF, Serbia
Philly had the most picks in the draft and still came away with more. Okafor will be a great player and his presence makes either Joel Embiid or Nerlens Noel expendable. If one of the second rounders can develop then this will be a success for the 76ers rebuilding project.

New York Knicks
Selection: Kristaps Portzingis, PF, Latvia, Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame, Willy Hernangómez, C, Spain
Knicks fans aren’t happy with Portzingis being selected at four and it might have been a bit of a reach. However, if they are patient he could be a steal. I love that they landed Grant though as he should be a playmaker on a team that lacks one.

Orlando Magic
Selections: Mario Herzonja, SG, Croatia, Tyler Harvey, SG, Eastern Washington
All signs say that Herzonja is a lights out shooter and with his size he could be a small forward. That might lessen the blow of Tobias Harris potentially leaving. Harvey needs some time but the Magic have to be happy with their draft.

Sacramento Kings
Selection: Willie Caulie-Stein, C, Kentucky
When your star player demands you take a certain prospect, you usually do it. DeMarcus Cousins and Caulie-Stein will be quite the frontcourt duo in Sacramento. Shame he is the only rookie they got.

Denver Nuggets
Selections: Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China, Nikola Radicevic, PG, Serbia
Apparently the Nuggets felt they needed a point guard. Mudiay is a huge question mark but oozes upside. Ty Lawson is likely on his way out though with Radicevic being selected as well.

Detroit Pistons
Selections: Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona, Darrun Hillard, SG, Villanova
Johnson may very well be great someday but with Justise Winslow still on the board I don’t fully understand this one. Darrun Hillard offers some playmaking ability but nothing eye-popping. Decent hall for Detroit but could have been better.

Charlotte Hornets
Selection: Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin
Only one pick means that Charlotte failed to do more. Kaminsky is a talented player though and should contribute immediately. Won’t make Charlotte a contender overnight but definitely a step in the right direction.

Miami Heat
Selections: Justise Winslow, SF, Duke, Josh Richardson, SG, Tennessee
Winslow at 10 might end up being a huge steal for the Heat. Richardson won’t contribute right away but he could be a key bench player in a year or two. Good draft for Miami. If only they could find a way to pay all their free agents now…

Indiana Pacers
Selections: Myles Turner, C, Texas, Joseph Young, SG, Oregon
The selection of Turner means that Roy Hibbert is moving. Plain and simple. The team has already begun shopping him. Young is a bit undersized for a shooting guard but he could still turn in a solid player to spell a starter down the line.

Utah Jazz
Selections: Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky, Olivier Hanlan, PG, Boston College
Lyles is without a doubt a talented player. He is very raw all the way around but he has a lot of potential. Pairing him with Rudy Gobert will be a lot of fun to watch. Hanlan is a good pick too and could be a future starter for the Jazz.

Phoenix Suns
Selection: Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky,
Only one pick but they made it count. Phoenix didn’t make themselves a contender in the draft but they took a valuable piece who should be a starter soon. His shooting alone with get him on the court this year.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Selections: Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State, Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky
Drafting a pro ready point guard to spell Russell Westbrook means the Thunder are realizing how small their championship window is at the moment. Selecting Johnson helps them prolong that potential window a little longer too.

Atlanta Hawks
Selections: Marcus Erikkson, SF, Spain, Dimitrios Agravanis, PF, Greece
Two second rounders don’t exactly scream championship builders. Neither does Tim Hardaway. No idea what the Hawks were thinking, especially when they had a talent like Kelly Oubre fall into their lap.

Boston Celtics
Selections: Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville, R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State, Jordan Mickey, PF, LSU, Marcus Thornton, SG, William & Mary
Rozier is good but a bit of a head scratcher with Jerian Grant still on the board. Mickey and Hunter are very solid picks though and should immediate contribute to this young Celtics team.

Milwaukee Bucks
Selection: Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV
He is a steal. Vaughn is a talented scorer coming from a good program. He will be a solid bench piece right away and help a woefully bad Bucks team on offense. Griveis Vasquez isn’t a bad add either, but it came at too steep a price.

Houston Rockets
Selections: Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin, Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville
Passing on Jerian Grant seems a little foolish but Dekker is a top talent. He showed he could do it all this year at Wisconsin. Harrell will be a good bench asset right away. If the Rockets find a point guard in free agency, they could very easily find themselves in the finals next year.

Washington Wizards
Selections: Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas, Aaron White, PF, Iowa
Landing Oubre for jump change was ingenious. He is in a spot too where he can develop for a year as well coming off the bench. Aaron White provides some depth, about what you would expect from a second round pick.

Toronto Raptors
Selections: Delon Wright, PG, Utah, Norman Powell, SG, UCLA
Wright landed in a good spot and now the Raptors have a contingency plan when Louis Williams or Kyle Lowry becomes too expensive. Powell won’t see much action to start but could be in the mix next season.

Dallas Mavericks
Selections: Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia, Satnam Singh, C, India
Anderson could one day be an All-Star if he reaches his full potential. Rick Carlisle will probably get it out of him too. Singh is another big body who can eventually rotate in and disrupt the paint when Tyson Chandler needs a breather.

Chicago Bulls
Selection: Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas,
The frontcourt is looking very crowded at the moment and with it likely that either Derrick Rose or Jimmy Butler will be gone next year getting a guard might have been good. However, Portis is a steal at 22 and will give the Bulls some depth, or a bargaining chip.

Portland Trailblazers
Selections: Pat Connaughton, SG, Notre Dame, Daniel Diez, SF, Spain
Add in Mason Plumlee as well. With LaMarcus Aldridge set to leave and Nicolaus Batum already gone this team is thinking youth movement. Portland certainly accomplished that.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Selections: Cedi Osman, SF, Macedonia, Rakeem Christmas, PF, Syracuse, Sir’Dominic Pointer, SF, St. John’s
Cleveland landed too high floor, low ceiling prospects in Christmas and Pointer as well as one for the future in Osman. This team is trying to win a title. They made some really good strides toward doing that.

Memphis Grizzlies
Selections: Jarell Martin, PF, LSU, Andrew Harrison, PG, Kentucky
Athleticism with lots of potential was the trend for Memphis. These two picks were definitely risky but they could pay off in the end. No short term help for the Griz though.

San Antonio Spurs
Selections: Nikola Milutinov, C, Serbia, Cady Lalanne, PF, UMass
Of course the Spurs took an international player that most of us had never heard of. I can’t fault them though cause that usually works out pretty well for them. Lalanne could be a role player as well as the Spurs make one last push for a title with their current core.

New Orleans Pelicans
Selection: Branden Dawson, SF, Michigan State
About all you can hope for when you are picking on in the second round. Dawson has some upside and had flashes of brilliance this season for Michigan State. It is doubtful but he could end up like another former Michigan State second-rounder (Draymond Green).

Los Angeles Clippers
Selections: None
Not much to say other than they better have a plan. The Clippers really could have used some new blood so this really hurts.

Brooklyn Nets
Selections: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona, Chris McCollough, PF, Syracuse, Juan Vaulet, SF, Argentina
Giving up Plumlee is no fun but Hollis-Jefferson could be a star one day. McCollough has a ton of potential as well as a highly recruited prospect before he tore his ACL. Vaulet is a prospect for down the road. Good draft for Brooklyn.

Golden State Warriors
Selection: Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA
Looney fits Golden State’s idea of small ball as a stretch 4. With all of Looney’s potential as well, this could be a great pick for the defending champs when we look back in about three years.