The NFL is back! Before the season gets underway in full on Sunday, I wanted to go on record with my predictions for who will win the major awards handed out at the end of the regular season. I am so glad that football finally here again!
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Harris scored 30 touchdowns in his senior year at Alabama.
Winner: Najee Harris, RB, Steelers I am incredibly way of the Steelers’ offensive line, but this is going to be about volume. No one else in Pittsburgh’s running back room has proven themselves in the NFL. Harris is going to be in line for a 350-touch season. The team seems committed to running the ball and relying on its defense to win games. That sets up a great situation for the former Alabama star to shine and take home the award.
Runner Up: Mac Jones, QB, Patriots Some of this is about Jones’ situation and some of it is due to his talent. He might have been the most pro-ready quarterback in the 2021 draft class. Now, he will play with a revamped Patriots offense behind a good offensive line. He also feels like a great fit for Josh McDaniels’ offense. His ability to make plays from the pocket and take care of the football bodes well for him having an impressive 2021 season. I think there might be too many hiccups for him to win the award. Quarterbacks tend to be dissected more intensely than any other position. I think it is too much to expect him to match Justin Herbert’s numbers from a year ago. He will be in the conversation, but I believe he will ultimately come up short.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Winner: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Broncos It only took one preseason game for Surtain to flash the potential that made him the No. 9 pick in the 2021 draft. He raced back a 30-yard pick-six against the Vikings in the Broncos’ preseason opener. Now, it was just the preseason, but that is the type of playmaking ability that will win Rookie of the Year. Without an elite edge rusher in this draft class, at least right out of the gate, there is a good chance we see either a corner or linebacker take home the award this year. I’m backing Surtain, who was my top corner prospect in 2021.
Runner Up: Jamin Davis, LB, Washington Davis flew up draft boards with his speed and instinctive playmaking style. He has the intangibles to become a sideline-to-sideline linebacker at the next level. Washington also has arguably the best defensive line in the NFL, which means Davis should have plenty of clear sight lines to the quarterback and ballcarriers. That front four eating up blocks will free up Davis to diagnose and go make plays. There will be a decent amount of competition for the award this year with Jaelan Phillips and Zaven Collins poised for big roles early in their careers, but I like Davis to stand out.
Offensive Player of the Year
Jones ran for a career-high 1,104 yards in 14 games in 2020.
Winner: Aaron Jones, RB, Packers Jamal Williams and his 70 receptions over the past two season are in Detroit. A.J. Dillon might still be there, but he is definitely a change of pace back. He will get carries, but I think Jones is in for a monster season. This offensive line will get better when David Bahktiari returns. Until then, Jones can run behind Elgton Jenkins. He will also continue to be involved in the passing game, where he has seen 131 targets over the past two years. This is going to be one of the best offenses in the league again and I expect Jones to be a huge part of that.
Runner Up: Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs It helps to play with Patrick Mahomes, but Hill is a special talent. After a 1,400-yards-from-scrimmage, 17-total-touchdown season, Hill had a legitimate claim to win the award in 2020. Sammy Watkins is now in Baltimore, so there is potential for Hill’s target share to even increase in 2021. With an improved offensive line, Mahomes will have even more time to drop dimes to Hill deep downfield.
Defensive Player of the Year
Winner: T.J. Watt, LB, Steelers Well part of this was an assumption that Watt would ball out in a contract year, but I still think he is in line for a special season. He has had at least 13 sacks in each of the past three seasons, including his league-leading 15 a season ago. He plays in a dynamic defense with tons of talent around him. Opposing teams will not be able to zero in on him in pass protection, at least not on every down. In addition to leading the league in sacks, Watt also tallied a league-high 23 tackles for loss. He is a disruptive force on a team that will be led by its defense.
Runner Up: Aaron Donald, DL, Rams Six straight First-Team All-Pros, seven straight Pro Bowls, four straight seasons with at least 11 sacks. It would unwise to predict anything but another stellar season by Donald. He is the best interior pass rusher in the NFL and one of the best ever. He is going to have plenty of pass rushing opportunities as well with the Rams seemingly poised to score a decent number of points on offense. Opposing teams will definitely need to be playing catch up. I think he will come close to securing another Defensive Player of the Year award.
Coach of the Year
The Bills are 23-9 over the past two seasons.
Winner: Sean McDermott, Bills Expectations are understandably high for the Bills. Following a return to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 1993. Josh Allen led a high-powered Buffalo offense that won the AFC East, however, the defense took a major step back. The front office invested in some young defensive players over the past few drafts. If the Bills can become a more complete team and McDermott gets this defense back to its 2019 form en route to a 13- or 14-win season, I think he will be more than deserving of the award.
Runner Up: Brandon Staley, Chargers A rookie head coach winning Coach of the Year? I think it could happen. The Chargers retooled their offensive line, get back some major contributors from injury on defense and have a talented, young quarterback to lead the way. Los Angeles likely won’t win the AFC West, that’s the downside to playing in the same division as the Chiefs, but the Chargers are definitely in contention for a wild card spot. I think if L.A. gets to 11 wins this season, which feels attainable given their talent and schedule, Staley should be in consideration for the award.
Comeback Player of the Year
Winner: Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys I had Prescott picked well before I saw his season-opening performance against the Buccaneers. He plays in an offense loaded with weapons and was on a legitimate MVP pace in 2020 prior to his injury. I expect we will see a 5,000-yard season from him, especially with the extra regular season game. After coming off a serious ankle injury, it will be great to see Prescott get back to full strength.
Runner Up: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers| If his brief appearances in 2020 were any indication, McCaffrey is still the best running back in the NFL. He is such a difference-maker in Carolina’s offense with his ability as a runner and as a pass catcher. It will be interesting to see how he gels with new Panthers quarterback, but I think his usage and productivity sets him up well to be in the mix for Comeback Player of the Year.
MVP
Mahomes has thrown 114 touchdowns since taking over the starting job in 2018.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs What if I told you the most talented quarterback in the NFL is going to play behind the best offensive line he has ever had in 2021? Well that is exactly what is going to happen in Kansas City. Mahomes was in the mix for MVP in 2020, but his production slowed a little bit down the stretch. With more time to pick apart opposing defenses a bevy of talented weapons to throw to, I think 50 touchdowns is within reach for Mahomes again. If he plays in all 17 games, I could definitely see him averaging three scores per game.
Runner Up: Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks I’m not totally sold on the Seahawks in 2021, but I still believe in Wilson. He has two reliable receivers on the outside in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. I think new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron will help this offense avoid the second-half fallout it had in 2020. Through the first half of the year, no one could touch Wilson. He was tearing apart secondaries and toss touchdowns like it was no one’s business. Despite a major slowdown in his final eight games, Wilson still tossed 40 touchdowns. I think he can match that total while cutting down on the 13 interceptions he threw to truly challenge for MVP.
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College football is back! With the season getting underway in earnest, this is a great time to look at the top programs for sending players to the NFL. This is my sixth year running these rankings, and while there has been a lot that has changed, some things stay the same. Alabama is still on top and has a monster lead over Ohio State. Nick Saban is running a NFL factory down in Tuscaloosa.
I love doing these rankings every year because it shows you which schools are the best at preparing players for the NFL draft. Obviously, it should be taken into account that usually these schools are also the ones that excel in recruiting, but there is a lot more to it than that. Receiving the right exposure, playing in a specific system or especially competing against the best talent all play a role in shaping a prospects’ draft stock as well. This is not a predictive measurement of how well players from these schools will do in the pros. For high school prospects with dreams of playing on Sundays, these are the best programs to get you there.
For those wondering how these rankings are created, I look at all the players drafted over the past five years and then score their draft spot using the scoring system below. The draft classes included in this year’s rankings span from 2017 to 2021.
The scoring system is as follows: 1st round -10 points 2nd round – 7 points 3rd round – 5 points 4th round – 4 points 5th round – 3 points 6th round – 2 points 7th round – 1 points
1. Alabama Crimson Tide – 343 points Previous: 1 (315 points) Highest Drafted Player – Quinnen Williams, 3rd Overall, 2019 Alabama continues to raise the bar. After claiming his sixth national championship since taking over for the Tide in 2009, Nick Saban tied the 2004 Miami Hurricanes when six of his players were drafted in the first round of 2021. Somehow, the Tide keep increasing their point total. After Ohio State pulled within 30 points a year ago, Alabama has stretched their lead to nearly 100 points again. No one is touching them for a while.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes – 248 points Previous: 2 (285 points) Highest Drafted Player – Nick Bosa/Chase Young, 2nd Overall, 2019/2020 At first glance, it might seem like the Buckeyes had a rough 2021 draft. It was solid if unspectacular, but their massive drop in points is mostly due to losing out on a 2016 draft class that featured 12 players, including five first-rounders. Ohio State is not going anywhere, but after seeming like they were primed to challenge Alabama for the top spot a year ago, this was a disappointing follow up.
3. LSU Tigers – 215 points Previous: 3 (202 points) Highest Drafted Player – Joe Burrow, 1st Overall, 2020 The championship hangover hit the Bayou hard as LSU struggled to a 5-5 finish. Still, the Tigers had seven players drafted, highlighted by Ja’Marr Chase going in the top 5. There is already buzz about another potential top-five prospect in Derek Stingley Jr., so I think LSU is here to stay. They will need to pick it up in the first few rounders though if they want to stay in the top three.
4. Michigan Wolverines – 170 points Previous: 6 (144 points) Highest Drafted Player – Devin Bush, 10th Overall, 2019 I said it last year and I will say it again, Jim Harbaugh, despite all his flaws running this program, knows how to get players to the NFL. Michigan saw eight of its football alumni have their names called across the three days of the 2021 draft in April. Kwity Paye led the way going 21st overall. There are already a few players in the top 50 conversation heading into this season, so the Wolverines could climb even higher.
5. Florida Gators – 167 points Previous: 5 (161 points) Highest Drafted Player – Kyle Pitts, 4th Overall, 2021 Florida’s draft success took another step forward as Kyle Pitts became the Gators’ first top-five pick since Dante Fowler back in 2015. Pitts kicked off a good-sized draft class, with eight former Florida players coming off the board on draft day. With tons of NFL-caliber talent still on this roster and Dan Mullen still running the show, Florida is going to stick among college football elites in this category.
6. Clemson Tigers – 165 points Previous: 4 (171 points) Highest Drafted Player – Trevor Lawrence, 1st Overall, 2021 It feels weird that Clemson would have the No. 1 overall pick and somehow move down two spots after dropping a few points. The Tigers had a solid draft class of five players. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne were both first-round selections. This is not a huge blow for Clemson, but I think it underlines just how hard it is to produce top-end NFL prospects.
7. Georgia Bulldogs – 153 points Previous: 9 (131 points) Highest Drafted Player – Roquon Smith, 8th Overall, 2018 Kirby Smart feels like he is just getting started. Georgia had nine players drafted in 2021, including three in the top 50. With a loaded roster heading into 2021 with some big-name prospects already drawing national attention, the Bulldogs are primed for future success. J.T. Daniels, Adam Anderson, Nakobe Dean and Jordan Davis could all come off the board in the top 50 in 2022.
8. Oklahoma Sooners – 138 points Previous: 8 (133 points) Highest Drafted Player – Baker Mayfield/Kyler Murray, 1st Overall, 2018/2019 This was a quiet draft by Oklahoma standards. 2021 snapped a three-year streak of having a player selected in the first round and only two players went in the top 100. That should change in 2022, with Spencer Rattler in the Heisman conversation and some other prospects receiving first-round buzz. As long as Lincoln Riley is in Norman, the Sooners are going to be in the top 10.
9. Washington Huskies – 132 points Previous: 10 (110 points) Highest Drafted Player – John Ross, 9th Overall, 2017 If you are a high school prospect with NFL aspirations looking to play on the West Coast, Washington should probably be at the top of your wish list. It remains to be seen if Jimmy Lake can sustain the success Chris Pederson built. If 2021 was any indication, the program should be fine. Joe Tryon snuck into the first round and Levi Onwuzurike was not far behind him. Four former Huskies heard their names called and there should be a few more to follow in 2022.
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish – 130 points Previous: 7 (136 points) Highest Drafted Player – Quenton Nelson, 6th Overall, 2018 Hate on the Irish all you want, Brian Kelly is producing NFL prospects at a high level. It was the second year in a row that Notre Dame did not have a first-round pick, but they somewhat made up for that with three second-rounders. Kyle Hamilton will almost definitely snap that streak next year. With a very small draft class in 2017, the Irish should be in a good spot to add more points in 2022.
11. Penn State Nittany Lions – 109 points Previous: 13 (100 points) Highest Drafted Player – Saquon Barkley, 2nd Overall, 2018 The gap between the top 10 and everyone else is apparent. Penn State has steadily made progress in these rankings in recent years. When I first started recording this, the Nittany Lions were 23rd and had not had a first-round pick in the previous five years. Fast forward to 2021 and Penn State had multiple players taken in the first round for the first time since 2003. Yes, it certainly seems like Happy Valley is back to being a hot spot for NFL prospects.
12. USC Trojans – 108 points Previous: 11 (104 points) Highest Drafted Player – Sam Darnold, 3rd Overall, 2018 15 years ago, USC likely would have led these rankings. After a long lull, it seems like the Trojans are headed in the right direction. Alijah Vera-Tucker was the highest drafted player of a group of five former USC players. With Kedon Slovis and Drake London drawing first-round hype already, the Trojans could be in for an even bigger draft class in 2022.
13. Iowa Hawkeyes – 98 points Previous: 19 (86 points) Highest Drafted Player – T.J. Hockenson, 8th Overall, 2019 This was definitely a down year for the Hawkeyes, yet they take a big step forward in the rankings. That is primarily because Austin Blythe was the only former Iowa player drafted in 2016 and he went in the seventh round. Hard to do much worse than that from a draft perspective. Iowa has dominated the middle rounds and have hit some highs with first-round selections in 2019 and 2020. If they are serious about staying in the top 15, the Hawkeyes will likely need to start producing first-rounders more regularly.
14. Miami Hurricanes – 97 points Previous: 19 (86 points) Highest Drafted Player – Jaelan Phillips, 18th Overall, 2021 Miami is really close to rejoining the elite schools in the country when it comes to sending players to the NFL. No one came close to matching the Hurricanes in the early 2000s, but they have fallen on hard times. Jaelan Phillips and Gregory Rousseau were the first players from Miami drafted before the third round since 2017. That is a problem. There is more talent on the horizon, but as we have seen, it is far from a guarantee that those players will crack those first two rounds.
15. Auburn Tigers – 96 points Previous: 12 (101 points) Highest Drafted Player – Derrick Brown, 7th Overall, 2020 The Gus Malzahn era is officially over and the on-field results correspond with a dip in the pro potential power rankings. The Tigers dominated the 2020 draft, highlighted by two selections in the first 30 picks, but those were their only first round draftees since 2014. Anthony Schwartz was the first Auburn player off the board this year and he went 91st. It will be interesting to see if Bryan Harsin can turn things around and how long it will take before the program is back among the nation’s elite, if it ever returns.
16. Texas A&M Aggies – 90 points Previous: 17 (90 points) Highest Drafted Player – Myles Garrett, 1st Overall, 2017 Despite a great season on the field, narrowly missing the College Football Playoff, Texas A&M had a really quiet draft. Only four players came off the board. Kellen Mond was the first and he went in the third round. That was a bit underwhelming, but oh boy, the 2022 Aggies draft class will likely change all of that. DeMarvin Leal, Jaylen Wydermyer, Kenyon Green and Isaiah Spiller will all be in the first-round conversation. There is plenty of depth after that. Jimbo Fisher has a good track record with sending players to the league. There is a reason Florida State has fallen off a cliff in NFL prospect production since he left.
17. Stanford Cardinal – 88 points Previous: 21 (85 points) Highest Drafted Player – Solomon Thomas, 3rd Overall, 2017 Stanford continues to produce NFL talent every year. Five players heard their names called in 2021, with all of them coming between the second and fifth rounds. Unfortunately, the quality of play on the field continues to slide and there is a chance the number of Cardinal players heading to the NFL could follow. David Shaw is a fantastic coach, but he needs to do something to revive this program.
18. Utah Utes – 86 points Previous: 20 (90 points) Highest Drafted Player – Garrett Bolles, 20th Overall, 2017 It is not time to panic in Salt Lake City. Not having a single player drafted in 2021 is startling, but that comes on the heels of a strong seven-man draft class in 2020. There is hope on the horizon with Devin Lloyd likely to generate some first-round buzz. This past draft class is still incredibly disappointing, but I wouldn’t expect Utah to completely drop out of the rankings right away.
19. Florida State Seminoles – 78 points Previous: 23 (80 points) Highest Drafted Player – Brian Burns, 16th Overall, 2019 Florida State has struggled to keep up their NFL factory tag in the post Jimbo Fisher era. The Seminoles drop a couple points but move up because of other teams struggling around them. If the season opener against Notre Dame was any indication though, there is a chance there is some more NFL talent on the roster than initially thought. 2022 could be a huge inflection point one way or the other in determining which direction FSU is headed in these rankings.
20. Mississippi State Bulldogs – 77 points Previous: 16 (91 points) Highest Drafted Player – Jeffery Simmons, 19th Overall, 2019 This was not ideal. Only two Mississippi State players were drafted in 2021. Both were seventh rounders. That is not going to get it done in these rankings, at least not long term. The Bulldogs should hang around bolstered by a 2019 draft class that featured three first-round picks, but this is a red flag. There is a chance their days in the top 20 are coming to an end.
21. UCLA Bruins – 76 points Previous: 14 (98 points) Highest Drafted Player – Josh Rosen, 10th Overall, 2018 Another small draft class sees the Bruins take a major tumble down the rankings. Osa Odighizuwa and Demetric Felton were the only players drafted from UCLA this past year. Early signs point to Chip Kelly having this team headed in the right direction. In his fourth season in L.A., Kelly finally has his own recruits running the show. Zach Charbonnet is off to a hot start and there are a few other prospects already earning top 100 buzz. Perhaps the Bruins are primed for a bounce back and better days ahead now that Kelly is settling in.
22. Wisconsin Badgers – 74 points Previous: 25 (73 points) Highest Drafted Player – T.J. Watt, 30th Overall, 2017 It was another ho-hum draft class for the Badgers. Three former Wisconsin players were drafted, but none of them were selected prior to the fifth round. Another year like that could see Paul Chryst’s program slide out of the rankings. There are a number of teams all within 15 points of Wisconsin at this stage. Its 2017 draft class was also a strong one, so they will need to have a better 2022 to help replace it when next year rolls around.
23. North Carolina State Wolfpack – 72 points Previous: 22 (83 points) Highest Drafted Player – Bradley Chubb, 5th Overall, 2018 Alim McNeil was the lone North Carolina State player taken in 2021. He was a third-round pick, but one-man draft classes don’t really do much in these rankings. Considering the Wolfpack’s on-field success, it was a bit of surprise no one else joined McNeil. NC State has a good history of producing NFL talent, so they could be in line for a turnaround, but it will need to happen quickly.
24. TCU Horned Frogs – 70 points Previous: 24 (79 points) Highest Draft Player – Jalen Reagor, 21st Overall, 2020 TCU is lucky to stay in these rankings. The Horned Frogs only had two players taken in 2021. However, they could be in line for a resurgence in 2022. Their 2017 draft class consisted of just one seventh-round selection, so it will be hard for them to really drop more points in next year’s rankings. There are a few players on the 2021 roster that should come off the board in the top 100, so the top 20 is definitely within reach.
25. Ole Miss Rebels – 69 points Previous: 15 (93 points) Highest Drafted Player – Evan Engram, 23rd Overall, 2021 The biggest drop of any program in the 2021 rankings, Ole Miss is hanging on for dear life. Their two players selected were in the second and fourth rounds, which is solid. However, that was replacing a 2016 draft class that produced three first-rounders. Now Evan Engram is the only former Rebel taken in the first round in the past five years. Maybe Matt Corral could change that, but it would take a big season for him to break into the top 32 prospects come draft day.
25. North Carolina – 69 points Previous: NR (46 points) Highest Drafted Player – Mitchell Trubisky, QB, UNC 2021 was a solid year for UNC both on the field and in terms of draft production. Their five players selected replaced a 2016 draft class featuring zero NFL prospects. That is a big part of the reason for the Tar Heels’ surge. It also helps that Mack Brown is attracting big-time talent to Chapel Hill. Sam Howell will have to prove himself in 2021 to solidify his first-round draft stock. There could be a few other players that work their way into the top 100 when all is said and done.
Others Receiving Votes: Virginia Tech (66 points), South Carolina (60 points), Kentucky (60 points)
With one week until the start of the NFL season, fantasy football draft season is in full swing. I’ve already had two drafts with a few more on the way. I am excited to put together my top 125 rankings heading into the 2021 season. I am a fantasy football junkie and this felt like the perfect time to release how I think players stack up from a fantasy perspective.
You will notice a few things as you run through these rankings. I am very high on running backs. It is always the shallowest position in fantasy other than maybe tight end. I tend to stock up on three of them by the sixth round at the latest, so my rankings reflect that a bit. I’m also big on finding high upside players later in the draft. Finding a safe fifth wide receiver to roster is not as valuable to me as targeting a player who might breakout and become a starting caliber option. It will inevitably lead to a few busts as well, but in recent years I’ve hit on D.K. Metcalf, Justin Jefferson and James Robinson. I’ve also whiffed on Devin Singletary, David Njoku and Daniel Jones. I prefer to take those risks later in the draft once I’ve built a more reliable starting lineup.
Also, I don’t follow this to the letter. If I already drafted Travis Kelce, I’m not touching Darren Waller just because he somehow slipped to Round 5. It is important to find value, but I’m not going to start two tight ends under pretty much any circumstances. It’s about knowing your league and what your team needs to be successful.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR The clear cut option at the top of any draft. McCaffrey is a PPR dynamo. He missed a ton of time last year due to injury, but when he did play, he averaged over 30 points per game, by far the most of any running back in the league. With a full offseason to get healthy and a potentially improved offense, expect another monster year from Run CMC.
Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN The only player I think even warrants consideration at No. 1 outside of McCaffrey is Cook. He trailed only McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in points per game among running backs in 2020. Minnesota bolstered its offensive line by drafting Christian Darrisaw and Wyatt Davis. The Vikings are going to run the ball a ton and Cook has a solid role in the passing game. He is a great RB1 option.
Alvin Kamara, RB, NO Kamara is a tricky evaluation this year. He dominated in 2020, finishing as the top running back in fantasy. However, we got a glimpse of what his production looks like post Drew Brees, and it was a little scary. Kamara averaged 14.1 points per game without Brees. That puts him on par with Miles Sanders. Not someone you want to spend a top five pick on in fantasy. However, his true projection might not be clear until we know who the Saints starting quarterback is. I expect his touches to decrease if Taysom Hill wins the job given that Hill is a run-first quarterback. If Jameis Winston takes the reins, that should solidify Kamara as a top-five pick.
Derrick Henry, RB, TEN This might feel a bit high for Henry in PPR, but he is such a dominant runner that he bucks all convention here. He finished solidly behind CMC, Cook and Kamara in points per game, but Henry is going to get volume. It will be interesting to see if the offense changes at all with Julio Jones on the roster and Arthur Smith no longer calling the plays, but I expect him to be a top 5 running back for the third year in a row.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL 2020 was a rough season for Elliott. He finished as RB9 with 14.9 points per game. Those aren’t bad numbers, but also not what was expected of someone who was usually a top three pick before the season. However, Zeke scored 22.4 points per game before Dak Prescott got hurt. With Prescott back and his offensive line seemingly healthy again, he should be in line for another big season.
Aaron Jones, RB, GB For whatever reason, Jones seems to be getting slept on a little bit heading into the 2021 season. He finished as RB5 this past season and Jamaal Williams is now in Detroit. AJ Dillon figures to get some touches, but I think we can assume Jones will still be the bellcow. Aaron Rodgers is back as well. I can’t think of a reason why Jones would not be in the mix to be a top-five back again this year.
Davante Adams, WR, GB Everyone likes to talk about how dominant Travis Kelce is relative to the next best tight end in fantasy. How about some love for Adams? He outscored Tyreek Hill by 3.7 points per game. Only three receivers averaged at least 20 points per game last season. Adams averaged 25.6. Yes, the Packers did finally draft a receiver (Amari Rodgers went to Green Bay in the third round) and Randall Cobb is back, but there is no chance Aaron Rodgers just stops throwing to his favorite target.
Nick Chubb, RB, CLE On a points per game basis, Chubb finished as RB8 last season. He is limited as a pass catcher, which is why he shouldn’t go higher than this, but he will likely be a top-10 back again this season. He gets a chance to work behind arguably the best offensive line in the league in a run-heavy offense. Yes, Kareem Hunt will continue to get touches, but Cleveland is the one team in the league that runs the ball enough for two running backs to be fantasy starters.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND Taylor finally delivered on the preseason hype in the final six games of this past season. However, with Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines still on the roster and the offensive line already a bit banged up, I don’t think we will see Taylor get that kind of usage or level of productivity in his second season. He is still worthy of a top-10 pick. Just don’t expect him to get 20+ touches per game.
Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC I am still high on Ekeler, even after an injury-riddled 2020 season. He should be healthier in 2021 and he gets to work behind a better offensive line. Ekeler’s role as a pass catcher gives him a pretty solid floor in PPR formats. Even if he does lose some carries to the other backs on the Chargers’ roster, he should have enough volume to be a solid RB1.
Travis Kelce, TE, KC If the top five backs are off the board, it is time to find the top tight end in fantasy football. Usually, I’m wary of taking a tight end or quarterback this early, but Kelce is outperforming every other tight end in fantasy by a ridiculous margin. He outscored Darren Waller by 3.5 points per game, which is a ridiculous gap between the top two players at a position. Taking Kelce gives you a massive leg up on everyone else in your league at a position that typically lacks depth.
Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG The reports out of Giants’ camp are a little bit worrisome. Barkley is still not in contact drills and seems to be slowly ramping up for the season. The likelihood is that he will not be ready for Week 1. How long it takes him to get back on the field will greatly impact how much value you get out of drafting him around this spot. If he is healthy, he should see the volume and a pass catcher to be a true RB1. It is just hard to know when he is going to come back.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, KC CEH was unquestionably overhyped in 2020, but still had a solid rookie season. Now, he is healthy and working behind a much improved offensive line. I am still buying into Andy Reid’s track record at producing great fantasy football running backs. He feels like a great option if you opt for a receiver or tight end with your first pick. I like him even better as an RB2 alongside someone like Taylor or Ekeler.
Tyreek Hill, WR, KC Last time I checked, Patrick Mahomes is still the quarterback in Kansas City and after the Chiefs overhauled their offensive line this offseason, he should have even more time to drop back and drop dimes to Hill. The Cheetah finished as WR2 in 2020 and shows no signs of slowing down. Sammy Watkins is gone too, which means that Hill could have even less competition for targets.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, ARI With a truncated offseason in a new offense, Hopkins dazzled us with his playmaking ability. He and Kyler Murray had a clear connection from the start. Hopkins had at least seven targets in every game except one and nine games with double digit targets. With Larry Fitzgerald likely retiring and Dan Arnold now in Carolina, I think that target share is likely to stay the same. Even with the additions of Rondale Moore and AJ Green, Hopkins is going to be the go-to receiver in this pass-happy offense.
Antonio Gibson, RB, WAS It was a big debut season for Gibson. After coming into the year behind Peyton Barber and splitting time with J.D. McKissic. He only played 47 percent of snaps for Washington in 2020, but managed to finish as RB13. With an increase in snaps likely coming and hopefully some improved quarterback play, Gibson could be in for a breakout year. His offensive line is still a bit suspect, but the majority of his value comes as a pass catcher anyway. He is still learning how to be a running back.
Najee Harris, RB, PIT If there is a rookie running back to target in drafts this year, it is Harris. He is a well-rounded back with limited competition for touches. Pittsburgh is determined to run the ball more this year. While they waited a long time to address their offensive line in the draft and free agency, they did add Pat Freiermuth, who is a great run blocker. Given Harris’ ability as a pass catcher and route runner as well, he could finish as a top-10 running back.
Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL Julio Jones is in Tennessee and while people are really excited about Kyle Pitts, there is no question that Ridley is the No. 1 receiver in this offense. Matt Ryan needs to bounce back, but Ridley already finished as a top-five receiver last year with Jones still competing for targets. Now, he gets a chance to work in Arthur Smith’s offense. If Ryan sees a resurgence, it is likely Ridley will greatly benefit.
Chris Carson, RB, SEA Welcome to my annual people-sleeping-on-Chris-Carson rant. He finished as RB13 in points per game and scored at least 10 points in every game he played in from start to finish except one. There is very little competition for carries in Seattle and the new offensive coordinator still wants to run the ball. Carson also has at least a little bit of value as a pass catcher too. He won’t see a ton of targets, but he had at least three catches in eight of the 12 games he played last year. You could do much worse in searching for an RB2.
D.K. Metcalf, WR, SEA Carson’s Seattle teammate is sure to get a lot of love in fantasy drafts. Metcalf was a little bit boom or bust in 2020, but he still finished as WR7. However, he was the top receiver in fantasy through the first half of the season. The Seahawks offense fell apart down the stretch, but we’ve seen Metcalf’s ceiling is the best receiver in fantasy. That is more than worth grabbing at the end of the second round.
Stefon Diggs, WR, BUF No one outside of Buffalo likely expected the monster season Diggs put together in 2020. He finished 0.3 points behind Tyreek Hill, finishing as WR3. He led the league in receptions and helped Josh Allen put together an MVP caliber season. It is unlikely Diggs will get that type of volume again with Emmanuel Sanders on the roster and Gabriel Davis due for more snaps. Still, Diggs should be a lock as a top-10 receiver barring a massive regression from Allen.
James Robinson, RB, JAX While it is very unfortunate for Travis Etienne to be out for the season, anyone who drafted Robinson prior to the injury got themselves a steal. Expecting him to finish as RB6 like he did last season feels unrealistic. Carlos Hyde is still going to get carries and Trevor Lawrence can run the ball himself. Still, Robinson will get the volume and should have the general production to be a rock solid RB2 this season with some upside to crack the top 10 if Hyde falls off, as he tends to every year.
David Montgomery, RB, CHI He probably won’t match his RB4 finish from 2020, but Montgomery is still a solid option as a RB2. With Tarik Cohen returning, he will probably lose some targets in the passing game. The possibility of Justin Fields taking over at quarterback could jumpstart the offense, but it could also take a few carries from Montgomery. We are getting dangerously close to the running back cliff.
Amari Cooper, WR, DAL I’ve heard the buzz that CeeDee Lamb is the receiver you want from Dallas, but I’m not sure I buy it. Cooper averaged 20.3 points per game before Dak Prescott got hurt last year. That would’ve been the fourth most points per game of any receiver last season. Perhaps Cooper wouldn’t have maintained that over the full season, but I think it is safe to bet he will finish with more than 14.8 per game, which is what had over the course of 2020. I like him as a low-end WR1.
A.J. Brown, WR, TEN Brown had a strong rookie year, but he took it to a new level in 2020. From Week 5 on, Brown was WR6 on a points per game basis. He will likely cede some targets to Julio Jones, but Jones has struggled to stay healthy in recent years. Jonnu Smith is also gone. The biggest question mark will be what the offense looks like with the former playcaller now in Atlanta.
Keenan Allen, WR, LAC Justin Herbert had a monster rookie season and Allen was a huge beneficiary. He finished as WR7 on a points per game basis in 2020, only missing the final two weeks of the season. With Los Angeles opting to bolster its offensive line, Herbert should have even more time to carve up opposing defenses. Allen is clearly his favorite target, especially with Hunter Henry now in New England.
Joe Mixon, RB, CIN If he is healthy, this is good value for Mixon. But that is a pretty big if. Mixon played in just six games last season and it was assumed he would return, until he didn’t. He also had nearly half of his points from those games come in one game against the woeful Jaguars defense. His involvement in the passing game raises his floor, but there is still a decent amount of risk with Mixon.
Allen Robinson, WR, CHI Andy Dalton is going to start Week 1. He won’t start for long though. Justin Fields might be the best quarterback Robinson has ever caught passes from in his career. Part of that is because Fields is talented. The other part is because Robinson has never played with a good quarterback. He still finished as WR9 with Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles tossing passes. If Fields was starting Week 1, Robinson would be even higher.
George Kittle, TE, SF Injuries derailed Kittle’s 2020 season, but when he was healthy, he still had the third most points per game among all tight ends. It remains to be seen who will be throwing him passes this year, but even if it is Jimmy Garoppolo, Kittle matched Travis Kelce on a points per game basis in 2019. He should thrive again in Kyle Shanahan’s system.
Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN Jefferson had an unbelievable rookie season. I think he is in line for another big year, but the sophomore slump has gotten many receivers in recent years. His big hurdle to another top-10 season is consistency. While he had five games over 20 points in 2020, he also had six under 10 points. That boom-or-bust scoring drops him down a little bit for me, but he is still a fringe WR1.
Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS Scary Terry is due for some much improved quarterback play in 2021. Ryan Fitzpatrick might not be a Pro Bowler, but he will be a step up from some of the worst starting QBs in the league, which is what McLaurin had last year. He still finished in the top 20 among fantasy receivers. I’m bullish on him producing a lot more with Fitzpatrick under center.
Robert Woods, WR, LAR On one hand, Woods is due for some improved quarterback play, just like McLaurin. Matt Stafford is definitely an upgrade over Jared Goff. However, he will have some more competition for targets with DeSean Jackson and Tutu Atwell both arriving in the offseason. Still, I will be targeting Woods as a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 in drafts.
Darren Waller, TE, LV While Travis Kelce is a tier of his own, there is a steep drop off after Kittle and Waller. The Raiders tight end finished as TE2 this past season, outscoring Logan Thomas as TE3 by over 100 points. If you can snag an elite tight end, you might sacrifice elsewhere, but the gap is massive.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL Just because I like Amari Cooper a bit more, that doesn’t mean I don’t like Lamb. He will obviously get Prescott back and his role in the offense grew as the 2020 season rolled on. He has far surpassed Michael Gallup on the depth chart. He might get off to a bit of a slow start after spending the final weeks of the preseason on the COVID-reserve list, but it won’t take Lamb long to get going.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC This feels like the right spot for the top quarterback to come off the board. Mahomes gets to play behind a revamped offensive line with two of the best targets in the league running routes in Kelce and Hill. He offers a bit as a runner as well to bolster his value. I tend to be a “wait on quarterback” drafter. I’m not taking one without a couple of solid running backs and a receiver on my roster already.
Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR Kupp is a PPR dynamo. He racked up 92 receptions in 15 games this past year. He also only managed to score three touchdowns. With Matthew Stafford arriving, his volume should stay the same, if not increase. He will have a bit more competition for targets, but I expect him to be heavily involved in this offense.
Gus Edwards, RB, BAL With J.K. Dobbins done for the season after tearing his ACL, Edwards will step into a much larger role. He would have been a popular late-round flier even before Dobbins’ injury because of how much the Ravens run the ball. His floor is a lot lower due to the lack of involvement in the passing game, but he has RB1 upside given his likely usage as a runner.
DJ Moore, WR, CAR Every year, you hear about regression to the mean when it comes to fantasy scoring, particularly when it comes to touchdowns. That should work in Moore’s favor. He racked up 61 catches in 2020, but scored only four touchdowns. He gets a new quarterback in Sam Darnold, so it will be interesting to see if that boosts his production.
Mike Evans, WR, TB The best ability is availability. While his teammate Chris Godwin narrowly outscored Evans on a per game basis. Evans finished as WR11. Godwin finished as WR31. There is a lot of competition for targets, but Evans is still playing in a pass-first offense with the greatest quarterback of all time. That is worth drafting at this point.
Josh Allen, QB, BUF Out of nowhere, Allen elevated his game to MVP level. He drastically improved his accuracy and still showcased his penchant for big plays. With a solid receiving corps headlined by Stefon Diggs and offseason addition Emmanuel Sanders, expect more of the same from Allen. Even after getting paid, I expect him to stay hungry in pursuit of a Super Bowl.
Adam Theilen, WR, MIN He is definitely slowing down at this point in his career, but Theilen still seems to have a bit left in the tank. It is incredibly unlikely he replicates his 14-touchdown season from a year ago. He still feels like a solid WR2 as long as Kirk Cousins is still under center.
Miles Sanders, RB, PHI Sanders had a rough 2020 season. The Eagles offensive line could not stay healthy and Carson Wentz played horribly. Sanders also only played in 12 games. However, he still finished as RB19 on a points per game basis. That is not great for those who drafted him in the first round this past year, but it points to him providing some solid value in this spot. He will likely cede some carries to Jalen Hurts, but he will still be heavily involved in the offense.
Josh Jacobs, RB, LV The days of Jacobs earning 20+ carries are likely over. The addition of Kenyan Drake’s presence will undoubtedly cause Jacobs to lose a few touches and ends just about any hope of him getting more involved in the passing game. He has been a volume producer in recent years and the Raiders dismantled their offensive line this offseason. I wouldn’t touch Jacobs before the fifth round.
Chris Godwin, WR, TB As I mentioned when talking about Mike Evans, Godwin struggled to stay on the field. When he was playing though, he was a great fantasy option. He finished as WR15 on a per game basis in 2020. His upside might be a bit more limited with increased competition for targets. O.J. Howard is back and Antonio Brown will be available all season this time around. He is still a WR2 option.
Darryl Henderson, RB, LAR Henderson slides a little bit after the Rams acquired Sony Michel. However, he is still likely to see a large workload. Better quarterback play probably bodes well for his likelihood to score touchdowns this year. He is not very involved in the passing game though, which limits his upside. He is a decent RB2 option.
Tee Higgins, WR, CIN I was all over Tee Higgins in the 2020 draft. I had him ranked among my top 20 prospects. He had a strong rookie year and looks poised to improve in 2021. Ja’Marr Chase is getting plenty of love, but Higgins is the clear No. 1 receiver in this offense. Joe Burrow seems to be trending in the right direction as well.
D’Andre Swift, RB, DET I am much lower on Swift than most. He struggled mightily to stay healthy in rookie season. Then, the Lions went out and signed Jamaal Williams. They have been in the market for some veteran running backs as well. This team is also likely to be trailing a lot this year, which limits their likelihood to run the ball. This is the earliest I’m taking him.
Julio Jones, WR, TEN Which side of Julio Jones’ stat line from 2020 do you want to buy into? The angle that he finished as WR14 on a points per game basis, or the reality that he only played in nine games? If Jones is healthy, he is a great WR2 option even after moving to a run-first offense. His upside is incredible, but he has missed too many games in recent years for me to be confident about him being out there for all 17 contests.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, DET If there is anyone who could close the gap on the top three fantasy tight ends this year, it is Hockenson. There is not much competition for targets in Detroit. The team’s top receivers are Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman. Jared Goff also has a good track record of throwing to his tight ends as well.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF Aiyuk quietly had a really impressive rookie season. He had five games where he scored at least 20 points. However, he also missed four games and had a couple of duds in there as well. He could be a great flex option, especially if the 49es as a team can get healthier in 2021.
Mike Davis, RB, ATL Davis is one of the toughest players to project. He dominated after stepping in for Christian McCaffrey in Carolina. He will now get a chance to be the starting back with very little competition for touches. His pass-catching ability gives him a very high floor, but the uncertainty of him joining a new team with a very small sample size for success makes me a little wary. He could wind up being a steal or a bust.
Diontae Johnson, WR, PIT He had a rocky start to the season, but Johnson settled in nicely in the second half. From Week 9 on, he scored at least 12.6 points in all but one game. He also had seven games with at least 19.9 points. However, Pittsburgh has a terrible offensive line and a ton of mouths to feed. The upside is clear, but there are some major question marks.
Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL The 2019 MVP took a bit of a step back in 2020, at least from a fantasy perspective. The Ravens invested heavily at wide receiver this offseason, signing Sammy Watkins and drafting Rashod Bateman. Jackson’s running ability already gives him a rock solid floor. If his passing numbers get anywhere close to his 2019 production, he will be a star again.
Kareem Hunt, RB, CLE How is it possible that RB10 from 2020 is going outside the top 50 despite his role not changing? Well, Hunt is the clear second back in Cleveland, but he was a top-five option when Nick Chubb went down. His effectiveness as a runner was a little suspect, but the Browns ran the ball enough for that not to matter, at least from a fantasy perspective. He is an elite handcuff, with fringe RB2 value on a weekly basis.
Myles Gaskin, RB, MIA Gaskin came from way off the radar to finishing as a top 30 back despite only playing in 10 games. He was RB12 on a per game basis, but the injuries are worrisome. So is Miami signing Malcolm Brown in the offseason. If Gaskin is truly the starter, he should be in the RB2 conversation, but that is a big if at this stage.
Chase Edmonds, RB, ARI After a few years of being a solid handcuff, Edmonds is ready to be a fantasy starter. Well, maybe. James Conner could easily steal some carries and Kyler Murray does a lot of the running himself. However, Edmonds is a solid pass catcher, which should keep his value steady even if Conner does see significant volume. You could do much worse when searching for a flex running back.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, CIN There is a reason Chase was the first receiver drafted in April. He is uber talented. He also has a rapport with his new/old quarterback from their college days together. At some point, Chase is going to settle in and be a really good fantasy receiver. It just might not be right out of the gate as he adjusts to the NFL and gets back up to speed after sitting out the 2020 season.
Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN Just how good will the Broncos’ offense be with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm? The answer to that question will likely dictate Sutton’s fantasy value for 2021. He is also coming off a major knee injury that cost him the final 15 games of the year. Sutton feels like a bit of a sleeper in this spot, but there are some major questions surrounding him.
Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA It is hard to believe that Lockett finished as WR8 in 2020. He scored 46 percent of his points across three monster games. Otherwise? He was WR32 in his other 13 games. His inconsistency is not something I’m too interested in for a weekly format. It is great for best ball leagues, but I don’t see him as much more than a flex option in 2021.
Kyler Murray, QB, ARI Before he suffered an ankle injury in 2020, Murray was the best quarterback in fantasy. He had the most points per game through Week 11 with close to 30 per contest. He faded down the stretch as his mobility was limited. This is the trade off that comes with Murray, who offers tons of value with his legs, but has a slight frame and is definitely more susceptible to injury. He is still a great option at quarterback.
Will Fuller, WR, MIA He will miss Week 1 due to a suspension, but Fuller lit it up in 2020. He finished as WR8 on a points per game basis, missing the final five games of the year due to that same suspension. Tua Tagovailoa is a step down from Deshaun Watson at quarterback, but Fuller should still be in line for a solid season.
Michael Thomas, WR, NO This is about the time that taking the risk on Thomas could be worth it. He is likely out for the first six weeks of the season at minimum. However, with Jameis Winston winning the starting job, his fantasy value when he gets healthy will likely be in the fringe WR1 range. Keep in mind he is only one season removed from a dominant year where he finished as WR1 by nearly 100 fantasy points.
Russell Wilson, QB, SEA If you want a top-10 quarterback in fantasy, just draft Wilson. He has finished no worse than QB9 since 2017. He was cooking through the first half of the season, averaging over 30 points per game, but the offense collapsed in the back half of the year. Seattle wants to run the ball more, which could cap Wilson’s upside, but he will still find ways to produce at a high level.
Mark Andrews, TE, BAL Andrews’ ADP surged following a TE5 finish in 2019, but he failed to quite live up to the hype. He still finished as TE6, but he actually scored 1.2 fewer points per game in the process. He is a bit touchdown dependent, but he should still be one of the best tight ends in fantasy this year.
Chase Claypool, WR, PIT Claypool burst onto the scene with his monster 42.6-point performance against the Eagles in Week 5. He was a decent flex option for much of the year, but faded down the stretch. With the Steelers likely to throw the ball a lot less in 2021, I’m not so sure Claypool will be able to replicate his production. There is still plenty of competition for targets, too. I would temper your expectations for a sophomore surge.
Dak Prescott, QB, DAL Through the first five games of the season, Prescott was the clear No. 1 quarterback in fantasy. However, his ankle injury cost him the rest of the year. He still led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, but there is some concern over his durability, especially with a shoulder injury cropping up in the preseason. If he can get healthy, he has the weapons to be the top quarterback in fantasy this year. His injuries are what pushes him down to this point.
Javonte Williams, RB, DEN At this point, these running backs are taking shots in the dark and hoping something lands. Williams is an exciting prospect, but he is likely to be in a committee with Melvin Gordon. He did grow as a receiver in his time at UNC, so perhaps he will have a bit more value in the passing game. He is a potential flex option with upside if Gordon happens to get hurt.
Marvin Jones Jr., WR, JAX If you have watched any of the preseason, you have seen the rapport Jones and rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence have already developed. Jones seems set to be the team’s No. 1 receiver and could see a pretty robust target share given the injuries to D.J. Chark in the preseason. As Matthew Berry likes to point out, Jones is also the only receiver to score at least nine touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. He could be a solid flex option.
Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL I know Pitts is going waaaaaay earlier than this in fantasy drafts, but he shouldn’t be. Rookie tight ends almost never do well in fantasy. I know everyone says he is really a receiver, but I still wouldn’t trust his role in this offense. Arthur Smith likes to spread the ball around and run the ball. Pitts will likely be a solid option, but he is being overdrafted at the moment.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB Oh hey there QB2 from 2020. Rodgers returned to his MVP ways with a dominant season. A lot was made about his offseason, but it likely won’t impact his fantasy value much. He also gets one of his favorite targets back with Randall Cobb’s return. He won’t provide much value as a runner, which limits his upside, but he is such a talented thrower that he can obviously more than make up for it.
Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN Don’t sleep on Boyd. Even with Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase on board, Boyd figures to have a solid role in this offense. He actually narrowly outscored Higgins on a per game basis in 2020. Given Chase’s preseason struggles, I wouldn’t expect his role to disappear any time soon.
Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, JAX Injuries limited Shenault’s availability last season, but he showed flashes of being an exciting playmaker. He is incredible in run-after-catch situations and should see a pretty solid target share, especially if D.J. Chark is banged up. Shenault’s own injury history drops his stock a little bit, but he is definitely a breakout candidate in 2021.
Robby Anderson, WR, CAR Anderson has history with Sam Darnold and is playing in a much better offense than when he was in New York. After a blistering start to 2020, Anderson faded down the stretch. He could lose out on some targets with Terrace Marshall in town, but he definitely projects as a matchup-specific flex option.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, PIT It is hard to believe that JuJu Smith Schuster was a top-10 fantasy receiver in 2018. It has been a steep drop-off since then. He still finished as WR16 in 2020, but it was a boom-or-bust season. He was held under seven points four times last season, but eclipsed 20 points four times as well. I worry about his target share with more mouths to feed (Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth) and the Steelers likely to throw the ball less than they did a year ago.
James Conner, RB, ARI From a current Steeler to a former Steeler. Conner now has a chance to get carries in Arizona. Chase Edmonds is likely going to start as the lead back, but a healthy Conner has been the better option over the course of their NFL careers. This could be a major sleeper if he is able to win the backfield.
DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI I’m a little concerned about Smith’s ability to stay healthy in the pros, but there is no doubt that he is an electric playmaker. He will also have very little competition for targets with a ton of unproven receivers around him on the roster. If he can get out on the field and reconnect with his former college teammate Jalen Hurts, he could provide way more value than where he is being drafted.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, DEN It was not the rookie season many would’ve expected from Jeudy after being drafted in the top 15 of the 2020 NFL draft. Instead of lighting it up, he averaged fewer than 10 points per game. Now, he will have some steadier quarterback play and a full offseason to acclimate to the NFL. I don’t think he is going to be a star just yet, but he should take a pretty sizable step toward looking like the receiver we saw at Alabama.
Brandin Cooks, WR, HOU By virtue of being basically the only receiver left in Houston, Cooks should see a lot of action. Unfortunately, his quarterback situation takes a major step backward moving from Deshaun Watson to Tyrod Taylor. Still, in PPR, that type of volume is enticing by this stage in the draft. I don’t think he has a ton of upside, but he should have a high floor as well.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND It is hard to find a team’s No. 1 receiver this late in most drafts, but Pittman is exactly that in Indianapolis. With T.Y. Hilton slowing down and dealing with injuries and Paris Campbell unable to stay on the field so far, Pittman should see a sizable target share. Assuming Carson Wentz is going to be on the field a lot this season, Pittman should be going well ahead of where he is being drafted.
Kenny Golladay, WR, NYG Already, there are injury concerns for Golladay in New York. He is an incredibly talented receiver, but he has struggled to stay on the field. The Giants also have questions along the offensive line and a ton of receivers to throw to. I worry about Golladay seeing the target share that made him such a valuable fantasy commodity in the past. Plus, the injury history is very worrying.
D.J. Chark, WR, JAX There is no question that Chark will benefit from playing with Trevor Lawrence, but will he be on the field enough to matter? Is he even the No. 1 receiver in this offense with Marvin Jones Jr. and Laviska Shenault looking strong in the preseason? Those questions push him down my draft board, but the upside is undeniable. Chark finished as WR17 in 2019 and could do it again if he can stay on the field.
Deebo Samuel, WR, SF Can Samuel stay healthy? He only played in seven games in 2020, including one where he left after one carry. With better quarterback play and a very creative offensive coordinator, Samuel could be in for a major bounce back year, but I’m a bit wary of his injury history and consistency.
Raheem Mostert, RB, SF Same thing goes for Mostert. When healthy, he has been a great fantasy back. He had at least 10 touches in every game he played in 2020, but with the arrival of Trey Sermon and Wayne Gallman, there is a chance Mostert’s weekly usage declines. As good as Kyle Shanahan’s system is at producing fantasy stars, there is a lot of risk involved here.
Antonio Brown, WR, TB As much as I might not like Antonio Brown, he is a good fantasy option. He was on fire down the stretch last season, finishing in the top 25 on a points per game basis among all receivers. He could fall victim to the same issues facing Chris Godwin and Mike Evans where there are just too many mouths to feed on a weekly basis. There is tons of upside, but definitely some risk given his standing compared to the rest of the receivers in this offense.
Marquez Callaway, WR, NO If you have watched any of this preseason, you have seen Callaway light it up. He and Jameis Winston are locked in right now. Michael Thomas will miss at least the first six games of the season on the PUP list as well, and there really isn’t anyone else on this roster to command targets. Not downfield at least. Alvin Kamara is going to go to work. Until further notice, Callaway is going to be a flex option or better on a weekly basis.
Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI Zach Ertz is still on the roster, but Goedert is the clear go-to tight end now. Injuries definitely held him back as he learned to play with a new quarterback as well. I think we see a bounce back season from Goedert, especially after a full offseason to work with Jalen Hurts.
Damien Harris, RB, NE Can you ever trust the Patriots backfield? The answer is usually no, but with Sony Michel shipped out, Harris has a little competition for carries. James White and Rhammondre Stevenson will both be involved, but Harris will likely be the lead back. Against the right matchups, he could have RB2 upside. He just won’t be someone you can start every week.
Melvin Gordon, RB, DEN While Javonte Williams is the shiny new toy in Denver’s offense, Gordon will still have some say in who controls the backfield. He finished as RB14 and produced well despite the Broncos’ awful quarterback situation. He was a little streaky, scoring his nine touchdowns in just six games. If Teddy Bridgewater can provide some stability, Gordon could be in the flex conversation again.
Trey Sermon, RB, SF One of my favorite rookies to target this year is Sermon. He is a good runner who comes into a great situation. San Francisco’s running backs have struggled to stay healthy in recent years, which could present Sermon with the opportunity to be a bellcow back. Sermon has his own injury history to worry about, but this feels like a good spot to take that risk.
Jarvis Landry, WR, CLE Landry had a down year despite becoming the top receiver in Cleveland. He had six games with fewer than eight points and only topped 20 once. With Odell Beckham Jr. still working his way back from injury, Landry should still see a good number of targets, but in an offense that does not throw the ball much, I wouldn’t be counting on him as a reliable fantasy starter.
Justin Herbert, QB, LAC Expectations for Herbert are high after a monster rookie season. An improved offensive line could see him take the next step after a year where he already finished as QB9. With plenty of weapons and a new offensive coordinator who spent a long time working with Drew Brees, I think Herbert is a very solid starting QB option in fantasy.
Logan Thomas, TE, WAS Coming from way off the radar, Thomas surprised everyone with a TE3 finish in 2020. Why he is this low is because he probably won’t match his 110 targets. Ryan Fitzpatrick has never been one to rely on tight ends and the arrival of Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown will likely cost him a ton of opportunities in this offense. However, there is a good chance his yards per catch climbs close to the league average and we see him do a bit more work on fewer touches.
Elijah Moore, WR, NYJ Reports out of Jets camp are that Moore is the clear No. 1 receiver. He hasn’t had a chance to show it in the preseason because of a quadriceps injury, but he has flashed tons of playmaking ability. His versatility to line up outside and in the slot means he should be on the field a lot. I think he could turn out to be a solid flex option later in the season.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA While Waddle is undoubtedly more talented than Moore, Moore has way less competition for targets. DeVante Parker is still in Miami and Will Fuller figures to play a significant role after returning from suspension. Mike Gesicki will definitely see some targets from the tight end spot, too. Waddle has the potential to be a game-breaker, but I would target him more in non-PPR formats because I don’t think he will have a huge target share.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, CLE Will we ever see the Beckham we saw in New York? From 2014-2018, he was in the top 10 on a point-per-game basis every year. He missed some time in 2017, but otherwise, he was an explosive playmaker who put up great fantasy numbers. Beckham finished outside the top 30 in points per game each of the past two years since joining the Browns. That doesn’t bode well for his prospects in 2021.
Tom Brady, QB, TB The GOAT turned it around after a rocky start to the season. Brady finished as QB7 on a points per game basis over the final eight weeks of the season. It seems like he has figured out Bruce Arians’ offense and gotten on the same page with his receivers. With even more targets this year, including a full season of Antonio Brown and the return of O.J. Howard, Brady should be primed for another solid year.
Leonard Fournette, RB, TB Do we trust that Playoff Lenny is going to show up in the regular season? Tampa Bay, much like New England, has opted to rotate through a number of running backs with Fournette, Ronald Jones, Giovani Bernard and Ke’Shawn Vaughn all on the roster. Still, we saw Fournette take over in the postseason. If he gets the type of workload in September that he got in January, this would be a steal.
Zack Moss, RB, BUF It appears Moss is set to be the lead back in the Bills offense in 2021. That might not mean a ton. Neither Moss nor Devin Singletary managed to crack 150 fantasy points last season. With Josh Allen stealing goal line carries and the team solidly committed to a running back by committee approach, his upside is limited, but he could be a spot starter in the case of injury or a bye week.
Michael Gallup, WR, DAL If there is anyone that feels like a post-hype sleeper to me this year, it is Gallup. He is clearly the third receiver in Dallas’ offense, but he flashed a high-ceiling with three games over 20 points. Gallup will not be an every week starter, but with Dak Prescott back and a pass-happy offense, he could be a matchup-specific flex option.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, TEN One of the most frequently overlooked fantasy quarterbacks, Tannehill finished as QB7 and added Julio Jones to his offense. For as much as the Titans like to run the ball, Tannehill gets plenty of opportunity to make plays. Consistency is a huge factor here as well, with only three games under 16 points in 2020. He is a very solid weekly starter.
A.J. Dillon, RB, GB Welcome to handcuff running back territory. Dillon is in line for a larger role this year with Jamaal Williams in Detroit now. However, he is still clearly the backup to Aaron Jones and does not bring a ton to the table as a pass catcher. If Jones goes down though, Dillon enters RB1 territory.
Jamaal Williams, RB, DET Staying in the division, Williams does not project as the Day 1 starter right now, but it might not take long. D’Andre Swift is dealing with some nagging injuries and has a history of missing time. For as questionable as this Lions roster is, the offensive line looks really strong. If Swift misses time, Williams could be a solid RB2.
Noah Fant, TE, DEN Teddy Bridgewater taking over at quarterback does not do too much to boost Fant’s fantasy value. The return of Courtland Sutton definitely hurts it. Fant is due for a breakout, but there are a lot of receivers here to garner targets in what could end up being a run-first offense. He did finish as TE8 in 2020, but I don’t know that he will be able to climb any higher this year.
Corey Davis, WR, NYJ If you read my weekly waiver wire column this past year, you know I was pounding the table for Davis all year long. He missed a few games and had some duds, but overall, it was a solid season for him. Now, he could be in line to be the Jets No. 1 receiver. There will be some bumps in the road with Zach Wilson at quarterback, but Davis should seem a good target share in this offense.
Darnell Mooney, WR, CHI A nice surprise as a rookie, Mooney emerged as a complementary receiver to Allen Robinson in the Bears offense. Now, Mooney will get some better quarterback play, especially once Justin Fields takes over. With a full offseason under his belt, Mooney is an exciting breakout candidate.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Samuel is reunited with Ron Rivera in Washington, but that likely hurts his fantasy value. He broke out for a WR24 finish with 14.1 points per game in 2020. That was under Matt Rhule and Joe Brady though. The year before playing for Rivera and Scott Turner? He was WR36 and had 10.7 points per game. I think he falls somewhere in between, but don’t expect a repeat of last season.
Nyheim Hines, RB, IND Hines’ value skyrocketed when Marlon Mack went down with an injury in Week 1 of 2020. He made the most of the opportunity, finishing as RB15. He was heavily involved in the passing game and if Jonathan Taylor ever goes down, Hines enters the RB1 conversation.
Tyler Higbee, TE, LAR It is possible no player benefits more from the arrival of Matthew Stafford than Higbee. Stafford has a great track record of throwing to his tight ends. Higbee also is in line for even more targets with Gerald Everett now in Seattle. There are still plenty of receivers to choose from in Los Angeles, but I think Higbee should be involved more than enough to be relevant.
Henry Ruggs, WR, LV How is Ruggs going to fare in Year 2? He had an underwhelming rookie season, finishing as WR94 and scoring over 10 points just twice. With a full offseason to work with Derek Carr, Ruggs could be primed for a better sophomore campaign. He is in line to be his team’s No. 1 target. If you are in best ball leagues, Ruggs is a great player to snag. He is a big risk just about every other setting.
Robert Tonyan, TE, GB There is almost no chance Tonyan replicates his 2020 production. He had 11 touchdowns on just 52 catches. He is clearly a great red zone target, but it is unlikely he can continue to be that efficient. With Randall Cobb returning to the team, his target share is likely to decrease rather than increase. He still has value, but finishing as TE4 again feels like too much to ask for.
Joe Burrow, QB, CIN If the line can protect him, Burrow is going to have plenty of weapons to work with. Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Ja’Marr Chase are an exciting trio of receivers and the Bengals get C.J. Uzomah and Joe Mixon back from injury. He had an up and down rookie season, but there is no doubt he has the talent to thrive in the NFL.
Russell Gage, WR, ATL With Julio Jones in Tennessee, Gage seems primed for a larger role in the Falcons offense. He has shown plenty of promise and finished the season on a tear. From Week 13 to Week 17, Gage was the 10th best receiver in fantasy. I fully expect him to be in the flex conversation this season.
Ronald Jones II, RB, TB Welcome to New England south, at least when it comes to fantasy running backs. Jones was supposed to be the lead back in 2020, but saw his role shrink slowly as the year rolled on. Fournette is back and the team added Giovani Bernard. If Fournette goes down, Jones becomes way more valuable, but unless that happens, he will have a lot of competition for carries.
Jonnu Smith, TE, NE This Patriots offense is built for tight ends to have success. Smith is likely to go heavily featured, especially with Hunter Henry already injured. Mac Jones is a very good passer and Smith will likely benefit from his presence. It’s not ridiculous to think he will be the most targeted player in this offense this season. Then again, the Patriots might just use him as a decoy half the time, so who knows.
Tony Pollard, RB, DAL Pollard has been one of the top handcuffs in the league for a few years now. The one week that Ezekiel Elliott was out in 2020, Pollard went off for over 30 points. He does not offer a ton of value when Elliott is healthy, but he still gets to work behind a strong offensive line.
DeVante Parker, WR, MIA Lost a bit in the hype around adding Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller, Parker is still a viable option in Miami. He had some bright spots in 2020 and will get a chance to play a very young Jets secondary twice. He is not going to be a weekly starter, but there will be some opportunities for him to be in your lineup.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE With Sony Michel now in Los Angeles, short-yardage work and goal line carries will now fall to Stevenson. He is a physical runner and could end up scoring a decent number of touchdowns this season. His volume won’t be super high and he will not be a factor in the passing game, but there is still value here.
Kenyan Drake, RB, LV The outlook for Drake heading into 2021 is rather bleak. He had a strong 2020 season, clocking in at RB16. However, that was over 250 touches. He will not see that again with the Raiders while backing up Josh Jacobs. Drake will likely still be involved in the passing game, but he only had 25 receptions last year. He is going to need to see a much larger target share for him to be a factor in fantasy.
Matt Stafford, QB, LAR Stafford joins a much better situation in L.A. than the one he leaves behind. I wouldn’t expect him to climb into the top five, but the improved supporting cast could see him reach the top 10. For reference, he was QB16 in 2020. His lack of mobility limits his value in fantasy, but Stafford is a solid late-round flier.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET Someone has to catch Jared Goff’s passes, right? The Lions just released Breshad Perriman on cut down day. Their starters right now are Tyrell Williams and Khalif Raymond. I would expect St. Brown to get some run. He was great out of the slot in college. I like him as a late-round stash with hopes he grows into that role as the season rolls on.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX While his offensive line does seem a little suspect, Lawrence is in a good spot to have success early on, at least from a fantasy perspective. He brings some value as a runner and will likely be throwing a ton with his team trailing in the second half. Especially playing the Texans in Week 1, Lawrence could be an immediate starting option.
Mike Williams, WR, LAC Once again, there were some flashes, but not enough consistency from Mike Williams. He barely cracked the top 50 in 2020. Los Angeles also went out and brought in more competition for targets with Jared Cook and Josh Palmer. I’m fading Williams. He would need to take a big step forward or have an injury to Keenan Allen to see any significant movement in the rankings.
Devin Singletary, RB, BUF Hopes of Singletary winning the lead role in this backfield are long gone. He is in a pretty even time share with Zack Moss, but it likely tips in Moss’ favor. With Josh Allen running as much as he does, Singletary simply does not see enough value to be a weekly starter. He has his moments, he had seven games with at least 10 points in 2020, but he will likely spend much of the year on your bench.
David Johnson, RB, HOU In theory, Johnson should be the starter in Houston. However, Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram are both still on the roster, which points to a running back by committee situation. Johnson quietly finished as RB15 on a points per game basis in 2020, so the upside is there, but his situation has gotten much worse.
Justin Fields, QB, CHI Obviously, Fields is not starting in Week 1. However, I don’t think it will be long before he unseats Andy Dalton. He has shown flashes in the preseason to be excited about and has some good receivers to work with. If you are looking for a late flier with upside to stash, Fields is likely top of my list in that category.
It’s almost time for football! Training camp is getting underway and the NFL rumor mill is in full effect. Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson and even Chandler Jones could be on the move.
There will be plenty of time to get into all of the potential scenarios for the big names looking for a change of scenery. I wanted to take a look at where every coach in the NFL stands though as we approach the preseason. Every year, we see about seven or eight head coaching openings in the league. Those openings don’t happen without a coach losing his job. Here is an early look at which coaches could be sweating it out at the end of the season. My plan is to update this list at the midway point and again after the regular season.
New York Jets – Robert Saleh Heat Index: 🔥 A rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback. It’s the first time the Jets have ever had both heading into the same season in franchise history. That takes the pressure off everyone here. While seeing a massive turnaround from a 2-14 season would be great, it is not expected. As long as Saleh can show signs that he is putting the pieces in place for future success, that’s all that matters. Besides, after dealing with Adam Gase for two years, Saleh will be a breath of fresh air.
New England Patriots – Bill Belichick Heat Index: 🔥🔥 Could the Patriots really fire Bill Belichick? It feels unlikely. At this point, I think it is more likely Belichick retires or leaves on his own accord than being fired. Still, after a very rocky 2020 season, the Patriots spent a ton of money in the offseason to retool their roster. They also spent a first round pick on Mac Jones. If New England takes a step backward though and the offense flops again, maybe the team could think about making a change. Again, it feels incredibly unlikely, but the expectations are certainly higher for the Patriots in 2021.
Buffalo Bills – Sean McDermott Heat Index: 🔥🔥 The Bills are entering a clear championship window in the final two years of Josh Allen’s rookie deal. Allen took a massive step in 2020 and put together an MVP-caliber campaign. If he can come close to replicating that performance, Buffalo will be very capable of winning its first Super Bowl in franchise history. In order to get to that point, Sean McDermott needs to get the defense back to its 2019 form. With higher expectations comes increased pressure. It would take a truly miserable season for McDermott to lose his job, but he has to deliver.
Miami Dolphins – Brian Flores Heat Index: 🔥 Honestly, if the Dolphins went 0-17 and Tua Tagovailoa lost his starting job to Jacoby Brissett, I think Brian Flores might still keep his job. He is a ton setter and a great culture builder. Let’s be clear, I don’t expect the above scenario to come true. Miami came up one game short of reaching the playoffs in an incredibly competitive AFC. Even if Tagovailoa falters again, I think Flores would get a chance to pick another quarterback and continue building the framework of this team.
Indianapolis Colts – Frank Reich Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥 Which direction are the Colts headed? The team has a championship-caliber roster in a lot of areas. Their front seven is incredible. The secondary should be even better in 2021. The offensive line is definitely among the top five units in the league. They lack a true No. 1 receiver at this point, but they have depth at the skill positions. It now all falls on Frank Reich and Carson Wentz. Indianapolis acquired Wentz this offseason for a decent amount of draft capital, reuniting him with his offensive coordinator from his early days in Philadelphia. If the Colts struggle in what looks to be a fairly weak AFC South and miss the postseason, there could be some significant turnover in Indy.
Houston Texans – David Culley Heat Index: 🔥 If there was ever a team that could be accused of tanking in the NFL, it has to be the Houston Texans. After releasing franchise icon J.J. Watt amid a massive quarterback controversy on the heels of a 4-12 season, it seems like the Texans are entering a long rebuild. With limited draft capital in recent years, this roster has a massive talent deficit compared to the rest of the league. The roster building is confusing as well, as the team continues to target veteran running backs. Deshaun Watson was likely not going to play this season before his pending legal situation unfolded. Now it seems certain he will not see the field in 2021. All of this is to say, there is absolutely no pressure on David Culley to succeed this season.
Tennessee Titans – Mike Vrabel Heat Index: 🔥🔥 Mike Vrabel has the Titans playing at an extremely high level. They are tough, determined and disciplined, which is usually a product of good coaching. After making a splashy move to land Julio Jones, the pressure is on for Tennessee to make a deep postseason run. With Arthur Smith heading to Atlanta, it is going to be interesting to see if the Titans can maintain their offensive success. A major step backward could see Vrabel come under scrutiny. I think his job is safe, but stranger things have happened.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Urban Meyer Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥 It is very bizarre to say a first-year head coach is on the hot seat, but Urban Meyer is unlike most rookie coaches. Meyer comes with a ton of clout from his days at Ohio State and Florida. He also just drafted arguably the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. The heat here mostly stems from Meyer’s checked history with team culture. The league fined the Jaguars $200,000 for OTA violations and slapped Meyer with a $100,000 fine of his own. The fines stemmed from breaking the non-contact rules of OTAs. This comes on the heels of Meyer hiring former Iowa strength coach Chris Doyle. Doyle resigned one day after his hire following a chorus of former Hawkeyes saying he discriminated against them. The Jaguars have a chance to build something special around Trevor Lawrence. There have already been red flags. Jacksonville needs to be sure it has the best possible system in place for Lawrence to succeed.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Mike Tomlin Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥 With Ben Roethlisberger’s tenure in Pittsburgh seemingly at its end, could the Steelers opt for a fresh start and move on from Mike Tomlin as well? It certainly feels possible. Despite winning the AFC North and reaching the playoffs, Pittsburgh struggled mightily down the stretch, including a dismal playoff loss against the rival Browns. With no clear succession plan in place and a roster coming up against the cap, the Steelers could look to rebuild with a new coach and a new quarterback.
Baltimore Ravens– John Harbaugh Heat Index: 🔥🔥 A few years ago ago, it felt very possible the Ravens were set to move on from John Harbaugh. Baltimore missed the playoffs from 2015-2017. Joe Flacco was struggling. The defense was far from its championship-winning dominance in 2012. Lamar Jackson likely saved Harbaugh’s job. Baltimore is now among the top title contenders heading into 2021. Harbaugh feels very safe, but there is always a scenario where he could not be back. There have been concerns around the Ravens offense being too one dimensional with Jackson at the helm. Finally winning a playoff game took the edge off, but if Baltimore somehow misses the postseason in 2021, the heat will be turned up on Harbaugh.
Cleveland Browns – Kevin Stefanski Heat Index: 🔥 After reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2002 and winning the franchise’s first playoff game since 1994, Kevin Stefanski is among the safest coaches in the league. His run-heavy approach was incredibly successful, utilizing the two-headed attack of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to great effect. Stefanski also put Baker Mayfield’s career back on the right path. Now, there are still questions that persist around Mayfield, but after investing heavily in the defense, he might not need to do much for the Browns to be successful again.
Cincinnati Bengals – Zac Taylor Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 Through two years on the job, Zac Taylor owns an ugly 6-25-1 record as a head coach. Some of that is a product of joining a team in the midst of a rebuild, but this is the year to start seeing some progress. Joe Burrow is undoubtedly the quarterback of the future in Cincinnati. Coming off a gruesome knee injury, expectations will be tamped down some for Burrow, but another double-digit loss season could cost Taylor his job. The team needs to take advantage of Burrow being on his rookie contract and can’t afford to waste another year of his development and that salary cap window waiting to see if Taylor can put together a winning formula.
Kansas City Chiefs – Andy Reid Heat Index: 🔥 Unsurprisingly, the pressure seems to be fairly low on Andy Reid. He delivered the franchise its first Super Bowl victory since 1970 in 2019. He led the team back to the big game in 2020 despite having an offensive line decimated by injuries. It cost the Chiefs a chance at repeating, but Kansas City is expected to be among the top contenders to lift the Lombardi in 2021. As long as Reid and Patrick Mahomes are still clicking, the Chiefs are going to be among the best teams in the league.
Denver Broncos – Vic Fangio Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Maybe this is a bit warmer than Vic Fangio truly deserves, but the Broncos are heading into a pivotal season. The team put a lot of faith in Drew Lock by passing on Justin Fields and Mac Jones on draft night. Courtland Sutton is back after missing 2020 due to injury. So is Von Miller. Winning the division is an incredibly tall task at this point with the Chiefs leading the way, but it feels like the Broncos need to be in the playoff conversation for Fangio to keep his job. Another five-win season with suspect quarterback play and a subpar defense is going to trigger a rebuild.
Los Angeles Chargers – Brandon Staley Heat Index: 🔥 Brandon Staley walks into a fantastic situation. He has a talented defense with a number of proven playmakers. He inherits one of the most exciting quarterback prospects in the league in Justin Herbert. Los Angeles is also stocked with some reliable playmakers on offense with Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. The Chargers are simply looking to take a step in the right direction this year. Anthony Lynn was a good coach, but struggled with time management and maintaining leads. If Staley can show an ability to at least be average in those two areas, he will be a major improvement and the Chargers will be at least a league average team.
Las Vegas Raiders – Jon Gruden Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 At what point are the Raiders going to put it all together? Heading into his fourth year of his second stint with the franchise, Jon Gruden has yet to post a winning record or reach the postseason. Las Vegas had its moments in 2020, but on the whole it was a disappointing campaign. If the Raiders don’t show signs of progress, expect a rebuild to follow. Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock have had ample opportunity to shape this team how they want it to. Now it is time for the results to follow.
New York Giants– Joe Judge Heat Index: 🔥🔥 Only entering his second year, Joe Judge might be a victim of circumstance more than anything else if he were to lose his job after this season. New York had a rocky 2020 campaign, finishing 6-10 and struggling to figure out its direction offensively. The Giants are in for a much better season in 2021. Saquon Barkley should be healthy at some point early in the year. Dave Gettleman invested draft capital at wide receiver and edge rusher, two positions of need. However, if Daniel Jones struggles and New York suffers through another 6-10 season, Gettleman will almost definitely be gone and the Giants will be looking to find a new franchise quarterback. If there is already that much turnover, Judge could be gone as well.
Philadelphia Eagles – Nick Sirianni Heat Index: 🔥🔥 It is incredibly rare that coaches are fired after just one season. However, it has also happened twice in the past three years. Steve Wilks only got a single season in Arizona and was fired after 2018. Cleveland canned Freddie Kitchen after a disappointing 2019 campaign. It’s not out of the question for the 2021 season either. I already touched on Meyer. Nick Sirianni is not facing as much pressure as his Jacksonville counterpart, but Philadelphia has never been known for being patient. Sirianni inherits a team with more questions than answers at a number of key positions, namely quarterback. If Jalen Hurts flames out and Sirianni shows no signs of building a positive culture, I could see a scenario where ownership decides to clean house.
Dallas Cowboys– Mike McCarthy Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Speaking of coaches lasting one year with a team, there was some buzz that Mike McCarthy could be done after a single season in Dallas. Even before Dak Prescott went down for the season, the Cowboys looked outmatched. It got much worse after that. McCarthy did enough to somehow earn a second year, but now the pressure is on. Dallas needs to win the NFC East for McCarthy to keep his job. It is an incredibly weak division and the Cowboys have the most talented roster, at least on paper. McCarthy might even need to win a playoff game to truly secure his place in 2022.
Washington Football Team – Ron Rivera Heat Index: 🔥🔥 Ron Rivera seems to have endeared himself well to the fans and to the locker room in D.C. After scraping together a playoff appearance despite a losing record, Washington still has not addressed the quarterback position long term. If it takes a step back in 2021, I don’t think that will be enough to force Rivera out. It would take a truly terrible season to see him lose his job. However, there will be those who feel like Washington’s defense gives them a good chance to repeat as division champions. Expectations lead to increased pressure. Given what we’ve seen in recent years, nothing is out of the question.
Atlanta Falcons – Arthur Smith Heat Index: 🔥 After impressing as the offensive coordinator in Tennessee, Arthur Smith has earned the chance to lead a team of his own. The Falcons are coming off a tough season full of late-game collapses and bad injury luck. Atlanta is caught in limbo as well. They have some veteran players that would make you believe they want to contend, mainly Matt Ryan. The front office gave Ryan a vote of confidence, or realized they could not afford to move him, when it passed on Justin Fields in the 2021 draft. Instead, they grabbed an elite pass-catcher in Kyle Pitts for Ryan to work with. That feels like a move towards contending in the short term. Then, the Falcons traded Julio Jones to Smith’s former team. Like I said, the team is in limbo. I think that bodes well for Smith’s job security while Atlanta attempts to figure out its direction moving forward.
New Orleans Saints – Sean Payton Heat Index: 🔥🔥 It is the end of an era in the Bayou. Drew Brees’ retirement leaves the Saints with uncertainty at quarterback for the first time in a decade and a half. New Orleans is also in salary cap hell after loading up to contend in the future Hall of Famers’ final few years. Now, the Saints seem set for a step backward. Where does that leave Sean Payton? He has shown he can win games without Brees in recent years with Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill stepping in to lead the team when Brees went down with injury. I think the pressure is likely off for Payton in 2021. It is a year for the Saints to retool their roster and identify their new franchise quarterback. If New Orleans tanks, Payton’s seat could get warmer, but I expect him to be back in 2022.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Bruce Arians Heat Index: 🔥 The only way Bruce Arians is not the coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2022 is if he decides to retire after the season. Fresh off a Super Bowl victory, the Buccaneers brought back essentially their entire roster to make a run at a repeat. Even if Tampa suffers from a major Super Bowl hangover and misses the postseason, it would be a rash move to fire Arians. He has the trust of Tom Brady, which goes a really long way in securing his position on one of the best teams in the league.
Carolina Panthers – Matt Rhule Heat Index: 🔥 2020 was a rebuilding year for the Panthers. Carolina rebuilt its defense in the 2020 NFL draft, gave Teddy Bridgewater a try at quarterback and lost their best player for most of the season due to injury as Christian McCaffrey played in just three games. Honestly, going 5-11 was a decent feat given how young Carolina’s starters were on both sides of the ball. Matt Rhule has earned the title of one of the best teachers in the game. His coaching skills were showcased during the Senior Bowl this past January. Given that the Panthers made a move to acquire Sam Darnold, I think the expectations will be slightly higher, but I still don’t think Rhule has anything to worry about heading into 2021.
Detroit Lions – Dan Campbell Heat Index: 🔥 If Detroit goes 1-16 in 2021, that might just be mission accomplished for the Lions. Avoiding a winless season and setting the team up to find its quarterback of the future would be a solid start to what will likely be a long rebuild. Dan Campbell likely won’t let any of that happen. He is competitive as hell and I think we could see the Lions win a game or two that they probably shouldn’t simply by putting in a ton of effort. Campbell is going to have his team motivated to play every week. Unless his tough as nails persona rubs players the wrong way in the locker room, I think Campbell will be given a few more years to rebuild this team.
Chicago Bears – Matt Nagy Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 Drafting Justin Fields likely takes a little bit of heat off Matt Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace. However, I don’t think it changes a tremendous amount for how this duo needs to approach the 2021 season. It needs to be clear at the end of the year that Fields is on track to be a franchise quarterback and that Nagy is the right person to help him reach his potential. Nagy was lucky to keep his job following a 2020 season where Chicago’s offense was nothing short of anemic. The combination of Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky was tough to watch. David Montgomery having a breakout season made up for some of those deficits, but the Bears need to show major progress offensive. It does not mean they will suddenly become the Chiefs or the Buccaneers, but fewer turnovers and sharper play will go a long way.
Green Bay Packers– Matt LaFleur Heat Index: 🔥🔥 Much of how Matt LaFleur will be judged stems from what happens with Aaron Rodgers. Will management blame him for the fractured relationship with the 2020 MVP? Unlikely, seeing as Rodgers’ issues seem to stem more from how the front office operates. There are two ways to spin LaFleur’s tenure in Green Bay. The Packers have reached back-to-back NFC Championship games and dominated the NFC North. For reference, Seattle was the last NFC team to reach back-to-back conference title games in 2012 and 2013. However, unlike the Seahawks, the Packers have been unable to get over the hump. Could another year where the team comes up short in the postseason raise enough questions about LaFleur’s ability to win the biggest games of the year to cost him his job? That seems bold, but don’t rule it out.
Minnesota Vikings – Mike Zimmer Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥 Mike Zimmer said after the 2020 season that Minnesota’s defense was the worst he ever coached. Enter Patrick Peterson, Mackensie Alexander, Bashaud Breeland, Dalvin Tomlinson, Chazz Surratt and Patrick Jones II. Now, it falls on Zimmer to get the most out of this new talent. Kirk Cousins is locked in through 2022, but another lackluster season from the Vikings could get the wheels turning on a rebuild. Especially if Aaron Rodgers does not play this season, this is Minnesota’s division to lose. Failing to do so would be a major letdown that would likely cost Zimmer his job.
Seattle Seahawks – Pete Carroll Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥 An underperforming defense, inconsistent play and a disgruntled star quarterback are a recipe for losing your job as a head coach in the NFL. Pete Carroll has the Seahawks in the mix as a playoff regular, but they have not made it past the division round since their 2014 Super Bowl loss. With Russell Wilson complaining this offseason about his offensive line, it certainly will turn up the scrutiny on Seattle’s performance this season. Another early playoff exit highlighted by a team that can’t quite put it all together could spell the end of Carroll’s tenure.
Arizona Cardinals – Kliff Kingsbury Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥 Entering his third year in charge of the Cardinals, Kliff Kingsbury needs to start producing some results. Arizona came close to reaching the playoffs in 2020, losing the tiebreaker to Chicago for the final spot. However, after starting 5-2, the Cardinals limped to a 3-6 finish. I mean limped literally as well because the team started to struggle right around the time Kyler Murray suffered an ankle injury. Murray still has three years left on his rookie deal, which gives Arizona a fairly lengthy Super Bowl window, but this year feels like an important one to show some progress after signing veterans like J.J. Watt, Malcolm Butler and James Conner to an already talented roster.
Los Angeles Rams – Sean McVay Heat Index: 🔥🔥 While Cam Akers certainly strikes a blow to Los Angeles’ title hopes, it should not drastically change the team’s expectations for 2021. After making the bold move to acquire Matthew Stafford, the Rams are positioning themselves as championship contenders. Taking all of that into account, I still think Sean McVay is entrenched in the organization that he can weather an underwhelming season. Long praised as one of the great offensive minds in the sport, McVay has proven himself to be valuable to this franchise. After all, the team is only three years removed from a Super Bowl appearance. Not to mention, the Rams upset the Seahawks in Seattle with an injured Jared Goff at quarterback. I think McVay is likely safe, but expectations are high for this Rams team heading into 2021.
San Francisco 49ers – Kyle Shanahan Heat Index: 🔥 After slogging through a ridiculous season of injuries, the 49ers seem poised to bounce back in a big way in 2021. However, the team is also facing a changing of the guard at quarterback after selecting Trey Lance with the No. 3 pick in April. I think that actually increases the likelihood Kyle Shanahan keeps his job. He is praised as an offensive guru who has developed several quarterbacks in his coaching career. On top of that, he and general manager John Lynch signed six-year extensions following a Super Bowl appearance. Shanahan will be around for a while in San Francisco.
Even with 259 picks in the 2021 draft, there are still plenty of talented players that fall through the cracks. Recent undrafted free agents to go on and find immediate success, including James Robinson, Phillip Lindsay, Deonte Harris, Allen Lazard and Charvarius Ward. This class, more than most, had a number of players that did not hear their names called, but landed in a good position to succeed in the NFL. Here are my favorite candidates to breakout as undrafted free agents.
Javian Hawkins, RB, Falcons Atlanta’s running back room is pretty bare at this point. Mike Davis proved to be a solid starter in Carolina last year when Christian McCaffrey was injured. Qadree Ollison and Tony Brooks-James are the other veterans on the roster. Javian Hawkins is a speedster who can provide a nice change of pace in the backfield. He has limited experience as a receiver and small hands, but his speed brings a fun element to this offense. I expect he will have a chance to earn touches with a strong training camp.
Ar’Darius Washington, S, Ravens While undersized, Ar’Darius Washington is a playmaker. He had five interceptions in 2019 and four pass breakups in 2020. Chuck Clark and DeShon Elliott have the starting roles locked down, but depth in the secondary is important. Washington could be a good fit for five- and six-defensive back sets. His size and lack of elite speed likely means he won’t be a starter in the future. It is going to be tough for him to earn a spot though with 2020 draft pick Geno Stone still in the mix.
Quintin Morris, TE, Bills One of the biggest surprises of this draft was that Buffalo did not target the tight end position. The Bills finished fourth in tight end targets in 2020, with Dawson Knox and Tyler Kroft, who is no longer on the team, combining for 60 of the 66 passes thrown to the position. This is one of those chicken or the egg situations. Does Buffalo not utilize its tight ends in the passing game, so we don’t hold their tight ends in high regard, or are the Bills tight ends not all that good, so they don’t target them? Now that I’ve finished that thought exercise, I think Quintin Morris can work his way onto the roster and into a solid role. He caught a combined 97 passes in 2018 and 2019 at Bowling Green. He only had 20 receptions in 2020, but the Falcons only played in five games. He is a solid blocker and could work his way into a secondary tight end role.
Charles Snowden, EDGE, Bears As was the theme of this draft, Charles Snowden was a potential Day 3 selection that fell out of the draft entirely. He has really good length and solid college production. In his final two seasons at Virginia, Snowden recorded 11 sacks. He is a bit raw, but the physical tools make a great addition as an undrafted free agent. Chicago has two proven veteran pass rushers in Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn, but there could be some room for competition behind them. He has a hard road to making the roster with Trevis Gipson and Jeremiah Attachou ahead of him, not to mention Mack’s brother, Ledarius. With his big frame though, Snowden is 6’6″, he could challenge for snaps at defensive end if he manages to put on some weight.
Marvin Wilson, DL, Browns I’ve talked about it at length, but what a drop off for Marvin Wilson. He went from being a potential first-round pick in 2020 to undrafted in 2021. I think a change of scenery will serve the former Florida State defensive lineman well. It was a really rocky year for the Seminoles, both on and off the field. Cleveland has thrown a lot of darts at the defensive tackle position, signing Malik Jackson and Malik McDowell in addition to drafting Tommy Togiai. However, I don’t think Cleveland is totally set on its starters at the position, with only Andrew Billings (opted out in 2020) and Jordan Elliott (started one game in 2020) the two incumbent players at the position. There is buzz that Sheldon Richardson could return, but I think Wilson will have a chance to earn playing time very early if he has a good training camp and preseason.
Nolan Laufenberg, G, Broncos One of my favorite interior lineman in this past draft, Nolan Laufenberg stays close to his alma mater by signing with Denver. He featured in a very run-heavy offense at Air Force, helping lead one of the best rushing attacks in the country as a three-year starter. He lacks elite size, but he is an above average athlete and could be a good backup for this Broncos team right away. With the injury to Ja’Wuan James, Denver will need as much offensive line depth as it can afford. If they have to start moving players to different positions because they cannot find a veteran free agent to fill the void, like the Packers did last year with Elgton Jenkins, Laufenberg might even be in line for snaps this year.
Sage Surratt, WR, Lions Detroit’s wide receiver corps was torn down. Marvin Jones Jr., Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola and Marvin Hall are all gone. The Lions drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown and signed veterans Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams, but Quintez Cephus is the only real holdover from 2020. That definitely opens up an opportunity for Sage Surratt. Surratt took the ACC by storm in 2019, but opted out in 2020 and dealt with injuries that hampered him at the Senior Bowl and at his pro day. He does not have great speed, but he can make contested catches and stretch the field. If he can get healthy, I think he has a shot to make the roster.
Christian Uphoff, S, Packers Put in a really tough situation, it is not shocking to see Christian Uphoff go undrafted. Like many other FCS players, he lost his fall season when it was moved to the spring and knowing he wanted to play in the NFL, Uphoff did not get a chance to play football in 2020. Still, he looked solid at the Senior Bowl and could be a practice squad player for Green Bay this year with a shot to make the roster down the line. He has excellent size and good play strength. He is not the best athlete, but he has a ton of experience and could be a good special teams player if he can make the final cut.
Tyler Vaughns, WR, Colts Indianapolis needs help at wide receiver. T.Y. Hilton still has not been re-signed. Paris Campbell cannot stay healthy. Veterans Zach Pascal and JJ Nelson are far from long-term solutions. Michael Pittman had a solid rookie year and maybe he can help his former USC teammate get up to speed. Tyler Vaughns is not an especially gifted athlete, but he has good length and hands. He was a four-year contributor for the Trojans, filling an important role as a possession receiver. The Colts could use a flashy playmaker, but moving the sticks is an invaluable trait. Don’t be surprised if Vaughns makes the roster and even sees some playing time as a rookie.
Josh Imatorbhebhe, WR, Jaguars How in the world did Josh Imatorbhebhe go undrafted? He posted some eye-popping testing numbers at Illinois pro day. He recorded a 46.5-inch vertical, which would have beaten the NFL combine record of 45 inches. Imatorbhebhe also threw up 24 reps on the bench press, which is in the 97th percentile for receivers, and measured in with solid hand size and an impressive wingspan. I would’ve thought some team would take a chance on him on Day 3. Instead, he lands in Jacksonville, who already has a crowded receiver room, but also has a new coaching staff and not many proven playmakers. As a big-play threat with nine touchdowns in 2019, Imatorbhebhe could carve out a role with the Jaguars.
Dylan Moses, LB, Jaguars Unlike Imatorbhebe, I know exactly why Dylan Moses went undrafted. It still does not make it any easier to believe. A former All-American at Alabama, Moses suffered a torn ACL that cost him his 2019 season. He was still projected to be a late first-round or early second-round pick had he come out in 2020. Instead, he returned to school and showed what we all feared. He lost a lot of his change of direction ability and looked like a shadow of the dominant linebacker we had witnessed in 2018. He battled through a meniscus injury and is already on the non-football injury list for the Jaguars. There are starting spots to be had in Jacksonville at linebacker. Myles Jack and Joe Schobert presumably command two of them, but Leon Jacobs, Shaq Quarterman, Roy Robertson-Harris and Damien Wilson will likely be competing for that final spot. If Moses can get healthy, a really big if at this point, I think he could make a real run at being a starter.
Riley Cole, LB, Chiefs While Kansas City drafted Nick Bolton in the second round, I still like the decision to bring in Riley Cole. He is a sure tackler that showed he could hold his own at the Senior Bowl. He did not face the best competition at South Alabama, but he could work his way into a special teams role or situational linebacker role early in his career. I think he would be an upgrade over Darius Harris and Ben Niemann, both of whom started games for Kansas City last season. Bolton likely wins the starting job alongside Willie Gay Jr. and Anthony Hitchens, but Cole could be in line for snaps early in his career.
Darius Stills, DL, Raiders After making the curious move to cut Maurice Hurst and then neglect the defensive tackle position in the draft, Darius Stills is a critical signing for the Raiders. Jonathan Hankins and Quinton Jefferson are the projected starters, but neither is irreplaceable at this stage. Solomon Thomas is a capable veteran, but neither Niles Scott nor Darius Philon have played since 2018. Stills arrives after posting 10.5 sacks over his final two seasons at West Virginia. He is a bit undersized, but tested well at his pro day and could work his way into a rotational role very early on, given the Raiders lack of proven depth at the position.
Alaric Jackson, OT, Rams The Rams completely ignored their offensive line in the draft. Andrew Whitworth turns 40 this year and the team has very little depth on the interior. Alaric Jackson has the size and experience to be a solid swing tackle or maybe even interior lineman starting this year. He played tackle at Iowa, but his short arms (32.5 inches) might make him a better fit at guard instead. Either way, I think Jackson could have an easy path to making the roster with very little proven depth along this offensive front.
Hamilcar Rashed Jr., EDGE, Jets The Jets desperately need pass rushers. New York finished in the bottom third of the league in sacks for what feels like at least the 10th year in a row. It’s been a long time since this team has been capable of pressuring opposing quarterbacks on a consistent basis. I will be interested to see how Hamilcar Rashed Jr. fits in this defense. He is built like a 3-4 outside linebacker, but he could be a situational speed rusher on third down for New York. He put together a monster 2019 season with 14 sacks. His zero-sack 2020 season is likely what caused him to go undrafted, but he has flashed the potential to be incredibly disruptive. If Rashed gets anywhere near his 2019 form, not those sack numbers, but just consistently creating pressure, this will be a steal for the Jets.
Kenny Yeboah, TE, Jets In addition to pass rushers, the Jets definitely need some help at tight end as well. Chris Herndon is in a make or break year. Ryan Griffin is a solid veteran, but fits better as a No. 2 option. Trevon Wesco has not done much in his first two seasons and Tyler Kroft is a journeyman with a lengthy injury history. That opens the door for Kenny Yeboah to make some noise. He had a great pre-draft process, looking sharp at the Senior Bowl and tested decently well at Ole Miss’ pro day. After being buried on the depth chart and failing to stand out at Temple, Yeboah put up some strong numbers for the Rebels in Lane Kiffin’s offense. He is best used as a move tight end and could be an intriguing option in New York.
Jamie Newman, QB, Eagles I had projected a big 2020 season from Jamie Newman after he transferred to Georgia, putting him in the first round of my way-too-early 2021 mock draft. Needless to say, that didn’t happen. Newman lost the starting job and then opted out. He did not look good at the Senior Bowl and struggled at Georgia’s pro day. There are moments of his film at Wake Forest that are special. For the Eagles, who are clearly trusting Jalen Hurts to run the offense, this is a fun project with tons of upside. If Hurts struggles, Newman could be a potential future option. More likely, the team will target a quarterback with one of its likely three first-round picks in 2022, but this is a savvy move by Philadelphia.
Shakur Brown, CB, Steelers Pittsburgh’s secondary took a hit this offseason. The team cut Steven Nelson to save cap space and lost Mike Hilton in free agency. Joe Hayden is clearly the top option with Justin Layne and Cameron Sutton behind him. After that, there is very little depth. Shakur Brown could be in line for some snaps this season in that nickel corner role with Hilton gone. He is a bit undersized, but Brown was a playmaker at Michigan State. He had five interceptions this past season for the Spartans. He did not test well at his pro day, but I think his game speed might be slightly better than his 40-time would indicate. Brown will never be a fixture on the outside, but he could make the roster as a slot corner.
Tamorrion Terry, WR, Seahawks A rough 2020 season tanked Tamorrion Terry’s draft stock. Jordan Travis did not have a great year, which I think could be a big reason for his drop off in production. Terry had 700-plus yards and eight touchdowns in 2018. He followed that up with nearly 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns in 2019. For him to finish out his career with 289 yards and one touchdown in his final season is incredibly disappointing. That being said, I think he will bounce back in Seattle. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the clear starters and the Seahawks spent a second-round pick on D’Wayne Eskridge. Freddie Swain is probably locked in as the fourth receiver, but there is definitely room for a fifth or sixth receiver on this roster. Aaron Fuller and fellow undrafted free agent Cade Johnson will probably be Terry’s biggest competition, but his size, length and athleticism could give him the inside track to making the roster.
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