2023 Predictive NFL Mock Draft: Raiders, Seahawks trade up, Texans pass on QBs

It is officially draft week! There are rumors flying everywhere and no one knows what to believe. It is a wild, chaotic and exciting time of year.

Each year, I put together a predictive mock draft, outlining what I believe will happen on draft day. This is very different from what I would do if I were picking for these teams. Some of this is based on what I have read from league insiders and team reporters and some of it is my own prediction based on where it seems like players are ranked and how teams typically value certain positions.

I also decided to project a couple of trades.

Las Vegas trades 1.7, 4.144 and a 2024 1st to Arizona for 1.3

Seahawks trades 1.20, 3.83 to Washington for 1.16, 6.193

Reminder, the first round is only 31 picks this year because the Dolphins were penalized their first-round selection for tampering. With all of that in mind, let’s dive into my latest mock!

1. Carolina Panthers via Chicago Bears – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
This one feels like a foregone conclusion. Young is listed at -1000 or shorter odds at pretty much every sportsbook in the country. He also canceled his final few private workouts and visits. I think Frank Reich and Scott Fitterer will feel good about turning in the card.

2. Houston Texans – Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
Well if Bryce Young feels like an obvious choice, then the Texans’ pick is the exact opposite. At this point, we have seen four different players favored to go at the No. 2 spot. In the end, I think Houston recognizes this is a multi-year rebuild. Will Anderson is the best player available and will give new head coach DeMeco Ryans a major building block on defense.

3. Las Vegas Raiders via Arizona Cardinals – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
If Houston does go with anything other than quarterback, the phone lines will light up for the Cardinals. I think trading down with the Raiders is a great situation that allows Arizona to stay in the top 10 while picking up meaningful draft capital to rebuild. For Las Vegas, Stroud gives the team a long-term answer at quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo is an injury-prone stopgap, but he would allow Stroud to start when he is ready.

4. Indianapolis Colts – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The rumor mill continues to point to the Colts loving Levis. With Young and Stroud off the board, I think Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard are in love with Levis’ arm strength and mobility. This is not the move I would make, but I am buying the buzz around this fit.

5. Seattle Seahawks via Denver Broncos – Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
Despite the off-the-field concerns with Carter stemming from his arrest in March, I still expect him to be selected high in the 2023 draft. Seattle has a massive need at defensive tackle. If there is a team that I’m not worried about handling a player with some red flags, it would be the Seahawks with Pete Carroll at the helm.

6. Detroit Lions via Los Angeles Rams – Devon Weatherspoon, CB, Illinois
Another popular pick in most mock drafts, the Lions are in the midst of a massive overhaul of their secondary. Detroit signed a pair of veterans and traded away 2020 first-round pick Jeff Okudah. I think Weatherspoon would complete the make over. He is disciplined, dynamic and reliable, all things Dan Campbell will love right away.

7. Arizona Cardinals via Las Vegas Raiders – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
This is a nice scenario for the Cardinals. Moving down and adding additional draft capital while still landing one of the top edge rushers in the class feels like a big win. Wilson could end up going much higher than this, but it would not shock me to see him “slide” to the back half of the top 10. He has a lot of fans in NFL front offices.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
The Falcons should not look too far for this one. Smith missed the end of the 2022 season with a torn pectoral muscle, but dominated the combine. Atlanta desperately needs pass rushing help. He is a toolsy player with a ton of upside and I think Terry Fontenot will take the local product in hopes of developing him into a star.

9. Chicago Bears via Carolina Panthers – Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
Chicago could go a number of directions, but I think the offensive line is going to be the priority. Skoronski has position flexibility and is well-regarded in NFL circles. I don’t think Ryan Poles will be deterred by his shorter-than-average arms.

10. Philadelphia Eagles via New Orleans Saints – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Eagles are tough to pin down. I would not rule out Howie Roseman building in the trenches, but I think he understands that he is going to need to plan for the future at cornerback. Gonzalez is a talented cover man who needs to get a bit stronger, but much like Philly did with Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean a year ago, it could take Gonzalez a year before needing him to start.

11. Tennessee Titans – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Could a team trade up for Richardson? Absolutely, but I think there are plenty of question marks around the former Florida star. He is the most dynamic quarterback prospect since Lamar Jackson, but he is inexperienced and unpolished. Given the outlook for Ryan Tannehill past this season, I think the Titans will view this as a great opportunity to get their quarterback of the future. He could sit for a year, before taking over in 2024.

12. Houston Texans via Cleveland – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
The Texans could take Hendon Hooker here, but I think the front office realizes it needs someone capable of catching the ball. After trading away Brandin Cooks, there is very little proven pass-catching talent on the Texans roster. Smith-Njigba is coming off an injury-riddled season, but was arguably the best receiver on the 2021 Ohio State offense that featured Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. He would give the Texans a No. 1 target for whoever they eventually tab as their franchise quarterback.

13. New York Jets – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Assuming the Jets eventually end up with Aaron Rodgers, New York needs to protect him. As of now, left tackle is a huge question mark. It feels like a safe bet that the Jets will take the best offensive tackle on the board. In this case, it would be Johnson, who spent the year starting at left tackle after playing right guard in 2021.

14. New England Patriots – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Bill Belichick is never an easy general manager to pin down. The Patriots could go corner, wide receiver or offensive tackle. I think Jones will be the pick given how the board has fallen so far. Trent Brown is in the final year of his contract, so Jones could be the 2024 starter at left tackle and potentially compete for the starting right tackle spot in 2023.

15. Green Bay Packers – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
At long last, the Packers could draft a pass-catcher. Kincaid has shot up draft boards over the past few months. He is a polished prospect who can contribute from Day 1. With Robert Tonyan gone and Mercedes Lewis out of a contract, this would fill a huge need for Green Bay.

16. Seattle Seahawks via Washington Commanders – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
Seattle has a ton of draft capital from the Russell Wilson trade. I think they could cash in a couple of chips to move up for a player they really like. Rumor is that the Commanders are taking calls for the 16th pick. Feels like a good match. In this case, the Seahawks can leapfrog the Lions and Buccaneers to grab Van Ness. He is a bit unrefined, never starting for Iowa because Kirk Ferentz always starts seniors, but he is an athletic, ascending talent.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
ESPN Steelers Reporter Brooke Pryor recently said Porter reminds her of Najee Harris in 2021. Everyone knew Pittsburgh wanted Harris and he fell right into their laps. Porter could be in the same position. He is a long-arm corner who would fill a big need for the Steelers after losing Cameron Sutton.

18. Detroit Lions – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
I fully expect the Lions to double dip on defense in the first round. Murphy is an athletic edge rusher who could rotate into Detroit’s pass rushing sets. Adding him to a group that already includes Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston would be a dream scenario for defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Donovan Smith retired and now Tristan Wirfs is sliding over to left tackle, which means the Buccaneers have a clear need at right tackle. The buzz is that Wright has a ton of fans around the league and should go in the top 25. He could compete with Matt Feiler, who signed with Tampa in free agency, for the starting right tackle job from Day 1.

20. Washington Commanders via Seattle Seahawks – Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
The Commanders have repeatedly said they feel comfortable with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett. I’m not so sure I believe that. Especially if Hooker is on the board at this point. Trading down and landing Hooker would be a huge win for Washington. He won’t be ready to start right away as he continues to rehab from a torn ACL, but he could be the long-term answer at the position.

21. Los Angeles Chargers – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Someone has to stop the slide for Robinson. With Austin Ekeler likely on the move, Los Angeles will need a new starting option in the backfield. Robinson would take a ton of pressure off Justin Herbert while giving him another pass-catching option. He would also be much cheaper than paying Ekeler long term.

22. Baltimore Ravens – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Ravens are more than comfortable spending premium draft picks at cornerback. Banks has drawn comparisons to long-time Ravens corner Marlon Humphrey. In this scenario, Banks would start opposite Humphrey, giving Baltimore an exciting, young tandem on the outside.

23. Minnesota Vikings – Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Yes, the Vikings could draft another corner. Despite investing a ton of draft picks at the position in recent years, Minnesota is still unsettled at cornerback. Patrick Peterson and Cameron Dantzler both departed during the offseason. Forbes is a bit undersized, he weighed in at 166 pounds at the combine, but he is a playmaker. He had six defensive touchdowns and 14 interceptions in college career.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
With the top five corners off the board, Jacksonville will have to pivot. Evan Engram is back again, but he is on the franchise tag. There is also not much behind him that inspires confidence. Michael Mayer is a well-rounded prospect with good production. He and Engram would be an exciting tandem this season while providing Jacksonville with a long-term option if Engram is gone in 2024.

25. New York Giants – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Offensive playmakers have been the focus this offseason for the Giants. Adding Darren Waller was a good start. Drafting Flowers would go a long way as well. He is a bit undersized at 5’9″, 182 pounds, but he has good hands and a ton of collegiate production. I fully expect New York to go receiver in this spot, especially with so many cornerbacks already off the board.

26. Dallas Cowboys – Steve Avila, G, TCU
This is a move I have been hearing more and more in recent days. Avila is a battle-tested guard who has gone up against good competition. He more than held his own against Georgia in the national championship game. Connor McGovern signed with Buffalo this offseason. Adding Avila would allow Tyler Smith to play right tackle or even left tackle if Tyron Smith deals with any more injuries.

27. Buffalo Bills – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The Bills are going to load up for another deep playoff run. Gabe Davis will be in a contract year in 2023 as well. Bringing in Addison would give Buffalo an elite slot receiver with the ability to play on the outside as well. Josh Allen would be out of excuses with that trio to throw to.

28. Cincinnati Bengals – Brian Branch, S, Alabama
This is a good meeting of need and value for Cincinnati. Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates both departed in free agency this offseason. Daxton Hill can hold down one spot, but another safety is needed. Branch did not have a great combine, but he has some quality tape and offers nice versatility.

29. New Orleans Saints via San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos – Derick Hall, EDGE, Auburn
The Saints tend to have a slightly different draft board than most others. They also value pass rushers in a big way. I could see Mickey Loomis falling in love with Hall, who had 15.5 sacks and 24 tackles for loss in his final two seasons at Auburn. With Marcus Davenport leaving in free agency, this is where I see the Saints going.

30. Philadelphia Eagles – Calijah Kancey, DL, Pittsburgh
The Eagles love to build in the trenches. Even after selecting Jordan Davis last year, Kancey could be a good fit. Fletcher Cox signed a one-year deal to return to the team and Javon Hargrave left for San Francisco. Kancey is a bit undersized, but he brings a ton of pass-rush ability to the table. Philly has valued interior pass rush in the past. I could see them prioritizing that once again.

31. Kansas City Chiefs – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Chiefs showed last year that they were more than capable of replacing Tyreek Hill’s production. However, JuJu Smith-Schuster played a large role in that and he is now in New England. Once again Kansas City needs more options for Patrick Mahomes. Landing Johnston would be a huge help. He is a big-body target with good open-field speed. He would add another element to this Chiefs offense.

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2023 NFL Mock Draft: How does the Panthers moving up to No. 1 impact the first round?

We have a new team picking first overall! The Bears and Panthers finalized a trade on Friday that sent the No. 1 pick to Carolina. Now the Panthers are on the clock. The move has massive implications for the rest of the league as well.

There were a few other trades that I decided to make for this mock, including some big-name quarterbacks changing teams. The following trades were made in this mock:

Las Vegas trades 1.7 to Green Bay for Aaron Rodgers, 4.117

Jets trade 1.13, 2024 1st to Baltimore for Lamar Jackson

Baltimore trades 1.13, 1.22 and 2024 2nd to Arizona for 1.3

Giants trade 1.26, 3.89, 5.160 to Tampa Bay for 1.19, 6.194

So Aaron Rodgers is a Raider, Lamar Jackson is a Jet and Ravens now have a top 3 selection. Is all of this likely? No, not particularly. But there is a real possibility these teams are all facing the prospect of not having a plan at quarterback heading in 2023. That usually leads to some moves we might not have expected. Plus, it is fun to explore the domino effect of different offseason moves.

Reminder, the first round is only 31 picks this year because the Dolphins were penalized their first-round selection for tampering. With all of that in mind, let’s dive into my latest mock!

1. Carolina Panthers via Chicago Bears – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Carolina sold the farm to move up. You take the best quarterback on the board. That is Young for me. He has size limitations, but I love his game. I think he will translate very well to the NFL and benefit from playing under Frank Reich.

2. Houston Texans – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Nothing really changes for the Texans. They are still in position to land one of the top two quarterbacks in this draft class. I think there is a clear gap between Stroud and the other two QBs still on the board. He is accurate, precise and polished. Houston’s rebuild has to start somewhere. Might as well be with a potential franchise passer.

3. Baltimore Ravens via Arizona Cardinals – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Let’s get wild here. It is tough to figure out what the Ravens will do if Lamar Jackson does in fact leave. It feels unlikely, but in this mock, I have Jackson headed to the Jets. Baltimore has shown they can make it work with one project quarterback with elite running ability. Why not try that again? Richardson is very raw, but he could sit for a year behind Tyler Huntley before taking the reins in 2024.

4. Indianapolis Colts – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Colts get the short end of the stick in terms of quarterbacks available. Levis is my QB4, narrowly behind Richardson. I still maintain Indianapolis should have moved up to No. 1. I think Levis has the tools to be successful at the next level, but he is a project with a lower ceiling than Richardson. Indy would still be in a bit of a rebuild after adding him.

5. Seattle Seahawks via Denver Broncos – Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
This would be a potential dream scenario for the Seahawks. Anderson would give them a bonafide franchise player to build around. Seattle can afford to spend more draft capital at the position as well with that second first-round selection.

6. Detroit Lions via Los Angeles Rams – Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
Dan Campbell will be salivating if Carter is on the board at pick six. I think he could be the right type of coach to help Carter straighten out a bit following his legal troubles. On the football field, the former Georgia star would be an instant impact player for a team in desperate need of a defensive upgrade.

7. Green Bay Packers via Las Vegas Raiders – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Green Bay is in an interesting spot here. I think they would wind up going best player available trying to retool a defense that disappointed a year ago. Wilson is long and disruptive off the edge. Pairing him with Devonte Wyatt and Kenny Clark would give the Packers a fearsome defensive line.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Atlanta’s pursuit of a pass rusher should finally come to an end in the 2023 draft. With two already off the board, I have them choosing a local product coming off a serious injury. Smith was a dynamic team leader at Georgia prior to the torn pectoral muscle. He showed at the combine why he should be in Top 10 consideration.

9. Chicago Bears via Carolina Panthers – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
The Bears clearly committed to Justin Fields. Now they need to build around him. Adding my top offensive tackle is a good place to start. Chicago’s offensive line has been bad for years. Johnson is a fluid mover with great size and length. He has starting experience at multiple spots on the offensive line. I like the idea of reuniting him with his former college teammate.

10. Philadelphia Eagles via New Orleans Saints – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
The run on quarterbacks and edge rushers pushes the corners down the board, but the Eagles will not mind. Amidst reports of a Darius Slay trade demand and James Bradberry headed for free agency, Philadelphia needs help on the outside. Witherspoon is a downhill type of player capable of setting the tone for a defense.

11. Tennessee Titans – Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
Rumors of a fire sale in Tennessee could shift the trajectory of this pick, but with no quarterback on the board worth taking, the front office has to go offensive line here. Skoronski is a talented player, but lacks the ideal length to start in the NFL. We have seen plenty of players overcome that issue before, but it could mean he winds up kicking inside. Not the best outcome, but the Titans could use help at pretty much every offensive line spot.

12. Houston Texans via Cleveland – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
If the Texans believe C.J. Stroud is their franchise quarterback, they will need to get him some receiver to target. Brandin Cooks is still seeking a trade and Houston does not have a whole lot that inspires confidence when it comes to the remaining receivers on the roster. Smith-Njigba was a nightmare for opposing defenses and showed just how explosive he could be at the combine. Don’t overthink the injuries. Go get a game-changing playmaker.

13. Arizona Cardinals via Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
This pick ultimately lands with the Cardinals after being sent to the Ravens by the Jets. I am cramming a lot into his mock draft. Arizona simply needs to start over on defense. Murphy is a quick-twitch athlete with tons of potential.

14. New England Patriots – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
New England’s secondary is headed for a massive makeover. Porter would provide a nice base layer. He is uncommonly long for a cornerback and uses that length to frustrate opposing receivers. He needs a bit of refining, but I trust Bill Belichick will give him all the coaching he needs to be great.

15. Green Bay Packers – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Green Bay cannot make the same mistake it did with Aaron Rodgers this time around with Jordan Love. Adding Addison, who tore up college football over the past two seasons, to a young receiver corps containing Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs would be a great way to set Love up for success.

16. Washington Commanders – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Washington could go a number of directions here, but I think taking Gonzalez would be a perfect example of where value meets need. Washington’s secondary has been the only weak point on an otherwise impressive defense. Gonzalez’ size and improving ball skills make me believe he could be a No. 1 corner.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Pittsburgh needs to protect Kenny Pickett. Plain and simple. Finding someone to open holes for Najee Harris would be nice, too. Jones is coming off a fantastic season with Georgia in which he did not allow a sack. He is still a bit inexperienced, but has the traits and intangibles to grow into the role.

18. Detroit Lions – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
After nabbing a defensive lineman at No. 6, Detroit double dips on that side of the ball with Banks. The Lions desperately need improved cornerback play. Banks is an athletic phenom with all the tools to turn into a shutdown corner. It might not be immediate, but there is a lot to like down the line.

19. New York Giants via Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
New York paid big money to keep Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley. Now they need to make that investment worth it. Trading up a few picks to grab a potential crucial puzzle piece feels like a logical move. Flowers is a bit undersized, but could thrive playing in the slot. The Giants desperately need someone to turn to on third downs.

20. Seattle Seahawks – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
Much like the Lions, the Seahawks also have the opportunity to double up on defense. Anderson is a stand up edge rusher in Seattle’s defensive scheme. Van Ness would likely be playing with his hand in the dirt. He has the play strength to kick inside and be effective. I think Pete Carroll and John Schneider would be happy to continue building in the trenches.

21. Los Angeles Chargers – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Los Angeles needs to find more pass-catching options and improve their blocking ability. Mayer checks both boxes. He is a pro-ready prospect with good college production. Add in good size and above average athleticism and you have a player that should make Justin Herbert’s life much easier.

22. Arizona Cardinals via Baltimore Ravens – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
I felt a bit conflicted about this one, but the Cardinals desperately need help along the offensive line. Four of their five starters from 2022 are free agents. Wright would give Arizona solid bookends to the unit opposite D.J. Humphries. The former Tennessee tackle broke out in his senior season following a shift to the right side of the line.

23. Minnesota Vikings – Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
Turnover in Minnesota is coming. Adam Theilen is already gone. Dalvin Cook and Harrison Smith could potentially follow. There are a number of ways the Vikings could go, but improving a horrific defense should outweigh many other concerns. McDonald brings jobs of athleticism, good production and tons of experience to the table following five years with the Cyclones.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars – Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State
I know I am higher on Brents than the consensus, but I have been blown away by his performances over the past two months. After tearing up the Senior Bowl, he crushed the combine. Couple that with great measurables and you have a player who should go in the top 31 picks (that feels weird to write). For Jacksonville, finding a corner to pair with Tyson Campbell should be a priority this offseason.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers via New York Giants – Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
Tampa Bay’s draft approach will largely be shaped by what they do in free agency, with so many key starters set to test the open market. As of now, defensive tackle is a clear need. Bresee has yet to fully recapture the form he flashed as a true freshman at Clemson. However, he had a solid season and looked sharp at the combine. He could be a Day 1 starter for the Bucs.

26. Dallas Cowboys – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Cowboys’ offense will look very different in 2023. Mike McCarthy is taking over as the playcaller. Zeke Elliott will likely be gone. And Dallas will almost definitely have a different receiver to pair with CeeDee Lamb. My vote at this stage would be Johnston, who is a jump ball threat with impressive long speed. I think Dak Prescott would benefit greatly from adding a player of Johnston’s caliber to his group of pass catchers.

27. Buffalo Bills – O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida
Buffalo’s interior of the offensive line has slowly decayed over the past few seasons. Without many reliable in-house solutions, the draft would be a logical spot to rebuild the unit. Torrence balled out in his lone year at Florida after following Billy Napier over from Louisiana. I like him as an immediate starter at the next level.

28. Cincinnati Bengals – Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
With Hayden Hurst headed for free agency, the Bengals could be in the market for a new tight end. Washington is a unique prospect given his combination of size and athleticism. Putting him in place to protect Joe Burrow, open up lanes for Joe Mixon and offer an additional target alongside Cincy’s outstanding trio feels like a slam dunk pick.

29. New Orleans Saints via San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos – Josh Downs, WR, UNC
Derek Carr is the new leader of the offense in New Orleans. As of now, it is not overly clear who he will be throwing to other than Chris Olave. Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are free agents while Alvin Kamara is facing legal trouble. Downs is a silky smooth route runner with great hands. He looked fantastic at the combine and I think deserves to be in the Round 1 conversation.

30. Philadelphia Eagles – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Prepare to see this pick mocked a lot. There will certainly be a chance Robinson goes sooner given his talent, but the league has clearly devalued the position in a big way. For Philadelphia, Robinson would be a much cheaper and more talented option than bringing back Miles Sanders. Putting him and Jalen Hurts in the same backfield might be bordering on unfair for the rest of the league.

31. Kansas City Chiefs – Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
Kansas City is facing the possibility of needing to replace both offensive tackles this offseason. The Chiefs have learned from past mistakes and will certainly be spending draft capital and other resources to protect Patrick Mahomes. Jones could be part of that equation. He is a massive man with good functional athleticism for that size. I think he could be a quality starting right tackle down the line.

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NFL Mock Draft 2023: Rodgers to Las Vegas, Seahawks draft a QB and Giants trade up for a receiver

Time for a brand new mock draft! The NFL combine is officially in the books following a busy week in Indianapolis. There were a number of players who boosted their draft stocks with their work on the field. Several of them will show up in the first round of this mock. Reminder, the first round is only 31 picks this year because the Dolphins were penalized their first-round selection for tampering.

Before we get into the picks, I wanted to take a look at the quarterback that could be on the move in the NFL this offseason. For the purposes of this mock, I executed a blockbuster trade that sends Aaron Rodgers to Las Vegas. Meanwhile, Derek Carr is reportedly signing with the Saints and I’m predicting Jimmy Garoppolo heads to New York. Lamar Jackson on the other hand stays put in Baltimore, as does Daniel Jones in New York.

There were a few other trades that I decided made sense for this mock, including a massive move up by the Colts to No. 1. The following trades were made in this mock:

Las Vegas trades 1.7, 2.39, 2024 1st to Green Bay for Aaron Rodgers, 4.117, 2024 3rd

Indianapolis trades 1.4, 2.36, 7.224, 2024 1st to Chicago for 1.1, 4.103

Seattle trades 1.20, 2.38, 5.124 to Pittsburgh for 1.17, 2.50

New York Giants trade 1.26, 3.89, 5.160 to Tampa Bay for 1.19, 6.194

With all of that in mind, let’s dive into my latest mock!

1. Indianapolis Colts via Chicago Bears – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
He weighs enough and he is tall enough. Young did enough to quiet some critics, but there will still be those who question his ability to last in the NFL given his smaller frame. Put on the tape though and you will see a player who stood tough against the pass rushers of the SEC and delivered clutch performances. Indianapolis has had a revolving door at quarterback since Andrew Luck retired. Young gives them a potential franchise quarterback for the first time since they last made a selection at the top of the draft.

2. Houston Texans – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
While Young stole headlines with his measurables and Anthony Richardson turned heads with his workout, C.J. Stroud is still the only quarterback I would consider taking at No. 1. He is technically sound and checks all the physical boxes. While he does not have the strongest arm in the class, it looks effortless when he releases the ball. He showcased his mobility against Georgia. It will be up to DeMeco Ryans and this coaching staff to get that version of Stroud as often as possible. He will contend with Davis Mills for the starting job from Day 1, eventually taking over as the long-term starter.

3. Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
I think I likely would have picked Anderson over Carter prior to Carter’s legal troubles. The off-the-field issues could cement Anderson as the top non-QB selected. He is one of the most productive pass rushers we have ever seen. He constantly wreaks havoc as a pass rusher and plays the run well. Anderson has all the physical tools to be a Hall-of-Fame pass rusher.

4. Chicago Bears via Indianapolis Colts – Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
The reason the Bears will favor sticking in the top four is because it all but guarantees they end up with either Anderson or Carter. Despite Carter being charged with reckless driving and racing in connection with a crash that killed his teammate Devon Willock and Georgia recruiting staffer Chandler LeCroy. Carter returned to Georgia, was booked and released, and then returned to the combine to interview with teams. Off-the-field issues aside, he is my highest-rated player. His blend of size and athleticism makes him a nightmare for opposing offenses. The Bears are in desperate need of an upgrade on the defensive line. He will signal the start of a major rebuild on that side of the ball.

5. Seattle Seahawks via Denver Broncos – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
I actually have a higher grade on Will Levis than I do on Richardson, but I think this is such a good fit for the former Florida quarterback. He wowed at the combine, setting records in the vertical and broad jumps while posting a 4.40 40-time at 244 pounds. His mobility is elite, but he is raw and unrefined as a passer. He has major accuracy issues and was off the mark consistently. I believe Pete Carroll could get the best out of Richardson and the Seahawks would not need to start him assuming they bring back Geno Smith. His upside is incredible and I think this would be the perfect situation for him to be successful long term.

6. Detroit Lions via Los Angeles Rams – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
The Lions defense was much better down the stretch, but still needs an infusion of talent on the back end. Witherspoon is a dynamic playmaker at corner. He is strong in run support and looked very comfortable in coverage for Illinois this past season. He checked all the boxes from a size perspective measuring in at 5’11” with 31-inch arms. Detroit is in desperate need of a true No. 1 corner. Witherspoon should be that sooner rather than later in his NFL career.

7. Green Bay Packers via Las Vegas Raiders – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
It’s all about Jordan Love in this scenario for the Packers. Green Bay needs to bolster its offensive line after injuries have turned this unit into an annual issue. I love what Johnson brings to the table. He is an athletic blocker who can thrive in both the run and pass game. He has great size and length, measuring in at 6’6″ with 36-inch arms. Johnson could start at right tackle before ultimately taking over from David Bakhtiari down the line.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Wilson is drawing a lot of buzz around the league. Daniel Jeremiah had him going ahead of Will Anderson Jr. in his most recent mock draft. I really like what Wilson brings to the table, but not enough to put him above Anderson. The former Texas Tech edge rusher is an elite run defender with great length and untapped potential as a pass rusher. Atlanta has been searching for improved play on the outside of their defensive front for years.

9. Carolina Panthers – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
I won’t rule out the possibility of the Panthers landing a veteran quarterback, but in this scenario, the Panthers are without a clear long-term answer at the position. Levis is a tough evaluation. He has great physical tools and put together a really strong 2021 campaign. However, dealing with injuries, a new offensive scheme and a worse supporting cast, he had a troubling 2022 season. I think Levis has the potential to be a solid NFL quarterback, but there is a lot of risk given his struggles with accuracy and propensity for turning the ball over.

10. Philadelphia Eagles via New Orleans Saints – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, the Eagles need to quickly retool their defense. With a number of veterans heading to free agency, including James Bradberry, Philly will need to turn to the draft to find replacements. Porter is not the most polished cornerback prospect, but he brings rare length to the position. Average arm length for corner prospects is around 31.5 inches. Porter’s arms measured at 34 inches at the combine. Couple that with good athleticism and strong hands in coverage and you have a player who could turn into a shutdown corner.

11. Tennessee Titans – Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Tennessee has some questions to answer regarding the futures of Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry, but the offensive line remains the biggest concern for this team. Taylor Lewan is already out the door. More players could follow. Adding Skoronski would give them a player capable of starting at either tackle or guard at the next level. Skoronski has the athleticism and size to play tackle, the position he played in college, but his below average length (32.25-inch arms) will raise questions for some about his ability to excel on the outside. His technique is good enough that he should be able to compensate, but those questions will continue to pop up.

12. Houston Texans via Cleveland – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
I’m not saying it will yield the same results, but we have seen some success for teams pairing college quarterbacks and wide receivers together in the NFL. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are the prime example, but Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle as well as Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith all point to this being a reasonable strategy. After an injury-plagued season, Smith-Njigba answered a lot of questions by posting the best times of any player at the combine in the 20-yard shuttle and 3-cone drill. His film indicates he will be able to separate well at the next level and should be a reliable playmaker for the Texans to rebuild this offense around.

13. New York Jets – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Jimmy Garoppolo is only going to be successful in New York if the Jets can protect him. There is still a chance Mekhi Becton could be one of the team’s long-term starters at tackle, but after three injury-plagued seasons, Joe Douglas cannot rely on that. Jones is fresh off a dominant season at Georgia. He has good size and length. His athleticism is impressive as well, underscored by him posting the best 40-time of any offensive lineman at the combine. He would be a plug-and-play option for the Jets at left tackle.

14. New England Patriots – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
While receiver is certainly an option, the Patriots seem more likely to focus on the defensive side of the ball. Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Williams and Myles Bryant are all slated to be free agents this offseason. Cornerback is going to be a need for Bill Belichick. After a rocky start to the season, Gonzalez played well down the stretch for the Ducks. He had a really strong combine showing, checking every box from a measurement perspective and posting great numbers in the 40 and vertical jump. He has the physical tools to be a good player in the league for a long time.

15. Green Bay Packers – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Aaron Rodgers might throw something at his TV if this pick were to roll in. Green Bay did not select a pass-catcher in the first round for Rodgers’ entire tenure with the team. If the Packers are serious about putting Jordan Love in a position to succeed, they will need to give him playmakers. Addison is a bit undersized, but he has been one of the most productive receivers in the country over the past two seasons. He would be a really great complement to the receiver the Packers already have on the roster.

16. Washington Commanders – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
I will be honest, I don’t really know what the path forward for the Commanders is right now. They picked up some huge wins over the Eagles and Cowboys this season, but have question marks all over the offense. Unfortunately, there is not much value at quarterback or offensive tackle at this spot. However, Banks has been flying up draft boards. He played well in his redshirt junior season after dealing with injury in 2021. He dominated the combine and could very easily find himself in the top 20 come draft day.

17. Seattle Seahawks via Pittsburgh Steelers – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
Seattle has a ton of draft capital, so John Schneider moves up a few spots to grab an athletic edge rusher in Murphy. The former Clemson defender is more projection than he is production at this stage. However, he displayed a unique blend of size and speed. He was more of a disruptor than his stats would indicate. For the Seahawks, they address a big need along their front seven as they look to build upon a surprise wild card run.

18. Detroit Lions – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
I don’t know if there was a player who had a bigger impact on their draft stock than Smith. The former Georgia star suffered a season-ending pectoral injury at the end of October. In a deep edge rusher class, it seemed like Smith had gotten lost in the shuffle. He let everyone know that he is back to full strength at the combine, posting absolutely ridiculous numbers. He ran a 4.37-second 40 and jumped 41.5 inches in the vertical, both the best for his position. Detroit would just get deeper at edge rusher, adding Smith to a room that already includes Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston.

19. New York Giants via Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
The trades keep on coming. The Giants move up to get ahead of a few teams that could be interested in taking a receiver to grab the top one still on the board. Flowers eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving and scored 12 touchdowns despite playing for an abysmal Boston College offense. He put together a solid display at the combine as well to bolster his draft stock. He is a bit undersized, but Daniel Jones could use a go-to target on third down and in key situations. I think Flowers would be exactly that for him.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers via Seattle Seahawks – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
The Steelers slide down a few spots and still add some help along the offensive line. Wright had a breakout season at Tennessee after he switched from left tackle to right tackle. He had a great week at the Senior Bowl and did what was asked of him at the combine. Pittsburgh needs to protect Kenny Pickett and maximize the investment they made in Najee Harris. Adding a road grading right tackle feels like a good place to start.

21. Los Angeles Chargers – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Los Angeles needs to do whatever it can to put Justin Herbert in a position to succeed. It has two great receivers in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, but adding a player like Mayer at tight end could add a whole new element to this offense. Mayer is a well-rounded prospect who produced well at Notre Dame and had a decent showing at the combine. He would be a plus in the run game as well, which is an area the Chargers struggled in throughout the 2022 season.

22. Baltimore Ravens – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Give Lamar Jackson some receivers! In truth, the Ravens have actually tried to surround their franchise quarterback with more talent. Since 2019, Baltimore has drafted six receivers, including two in the first round. Unfortunately, they just haven’t hit on most of them. Johnston would hopefully make up for some past mistakes. He has rare long speed for a player his size and dominates in jump ball situations. He lacks elite quickness, but he would be a big target capable of stretching the defense. Johnston, Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay should give the Ravens a solid receiving corps.

23. Minnesota Vikings – Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
I might be low on McDonald compared to the consensus at this point after he showed out at both the Senior Bowl and the combine. He racked up 34 sacks in his five seasons with the Cyclones, including double-digit sack seasons in 2020 and 2021. He has long arms and tested well in the vertical and broad jumps. In fact, his 11-foot broad jump was tied for the best of any player at the position. For Minnesota, McDonald would be a welcome addition to one of the worst units in the league. The Vikings are facing serious turnover on that side of the ball. McDonald, Andrew Booth Jr. and Lewis Cine would give Brian Flores a decent starting point as he aims to reshape this defense.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars – Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State
Jacksonville is shaping up to be one of the most interesting teams to watch in 2023. Trevor Lawrence took a huge jump in his development as the front office put more talent around him and found him a real head coach in Doug Pederson. There are still some gaps to fill in though. Corner is probably the most glaring. It feels like a good landing spot for Brents, who has turned a lot of heads over the past six weeks. He had a strong week in Mobile and even better one in Indianapolis. Brents has great size, 6’3″, and length, 34-inch arms, to pair with incredible physical gifts. He posted a solid time in the 40 and then proceeded to crush the rest of the combine. He had the best broad jump and second-best three-cone time of any player at the combine. Couple that with a stellar 41.5-inch vertical and you have a massive riser up draft boards everywhere.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers via New York Giants – Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
Tampa Bay’s path forward is a bit unclear. As of now, only Kyle Trask is under contract at quarterback and the Buccaneers are nowhere near a position where they could land one of the top passers in this class. Perhaps they could target Hendon Hooker on Day 2. With QB not an option at this point, the Bucs could aim to bolster their defensive line. Akiem Hicks and Rakeem Nunez-Roches are both set to be free agents. Bresee could be an easy replacement. He looked sharp at the combine and moved really well for a player his size. His injury history and general lack of production at Clemson will push him down the board a bit, but he is a really talented player with loads of upside.

26. Dallas Cowboys – Josh Downs, WR, UNC
Dallas could go a number of directions here, but receiver feels like the biggest need for the Cowboys. CeeDee Lamb had another good year, but there is a reason Jerry Jones was asked about Odell Beckham Jr. for most of the regular season. Dak Prescott needs more receiving options. Enter Downs, who is a silky smooth operator with great hands. He is on the smaller side, but he has the potential to be a dynamic playmaker for Dallas. He was Drake Maye’s go-to target with the ability to line up outside or in the slot.

27. Buffalo Bills – O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida
While I did consider going with a running back here, I think the Bills should opt to bolster the interior of their offensive line and trust that James Cook will be better in Year 2. Roger Saffold is slated to be a free agent and Torrence could be a much cheaper option at left guard. He isn’t the greatest athlete of all time, but he has good power and massive hands that allow him to control opposing players. With tons of experience playing at Louisiana and later Florida, I see him as a pro-ready option that could help the Bills finally get over the hump in the postseason.

28. Cincinnati Bengals – Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
The Bengals have a fairly well-rounded roster without a ton of clear needs. Offensive line is arguably a bigger need, but Hayden Hurst is a free agent, so I think tight end moves to the forefront. Washington is not the most polished receiver in this tight end group, but he is a rare prospect with his size and speed. Running a 4.64-second 40 at 264 pounds is remarkable. At 6’7″ with long arms and massive hands, Washington will also be an asset in both run and pass protection.

29. New Orleans Saints via San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
With Derek Carr under contract in this scenario, New Orleans shifts its focus to defense. Van Ness is an ascending talent coming out of Iowa. He did not start for the Hawkeyes, but his athleticism and intangibles have teams believing in his upside. He is long and quick off the edge. His college production was solid as well with 13 sacks and 19 tackles for loss over the past two seasons. With Marcus Davenport headed for free agency, Van Ness could be in line for meaningful snaps as a rookie.

30. Philadelphia Eagles – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Finally, the first running back comes off the board. Robinson is a top-10 talent, but the lack of positional value and a strong free agent class means teams are more willing to wait at the position. It is also an incredible deep draft class at the position. Despite all of that, Robinson is worth the first-round pick. His contact balance is elite. He has a great ability to make players miss and get back up to full speed in a hurry. For an Eagles team that loves to run the football, this is a dream fit. He would take over the backfield role from Miles Sanders, who is a free agent.

31. Kansas City Chiefs – Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
There are large human beings and then there is Dawand Jones. The former Ohio State tackle is a behemoth, standing 6’8″ and weighing 374 pounds. He also has 36-inch arms and a nearly 88-inch wingspan! In short, Jones is huge and moves well for a player that size. He has work to do with his footwork and is definitely in need of some refining from a technique standpoint, but his sheer size makes up for a lot of that immediately. For a Chiefs team that is heading into free agency with both of its starting tackles out of a contract, Jones could be a potential long-term answer on the right side.

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Draft Season Never Ends: NFL Quarterback Carousel

There are at least a dozen NFL teams who have questions to answer about the future of the quarterback position this offseason. With so many teams needing new QBs, who might get left out and how will it impact this year’s NFL draft?

You can find every episode on Anchor, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube or wherever you find your podcasts. As always, I appreciate reviews, feedback and when you hit that subscribe button.

How the Raiders can replace Derek Carr and where Carr could land in 2023

Carr’s completion percentage dipped to 60.8 percent this year, down from 68.4 percent a year ago. (Wikimedia Commons)

The Raiders are not officially eliminated from playoff contention, but they are already preparing for 2023. To be fair, their playoff odds are long, needing wins over the 49ers and Chiefs to close the season along with a litany of other results to go their way. However, Las Vegas essentially waved the white flag on Wednesday, announcing that Jarrett Stidham will start the final two regular season games with Chase Garbers set to be his backup. This means Derek Carr’s season is done and along with it, potentially his career with the Raiders.

How did we get to this point? Well, it started with the contract extension Carr signed last offseason. It looked as though the Raiders had locked up their franchise quarterback for years to come. Instead, it was actually a one-year pact with the framework to keep him in house if the team desired. Carr can be released or traded this offseason for a dead cap hit of just $5.625 million while saving Las Vegas $29.25 million in cap space.

The door was cracked open to Carr’s exit this offseason at that point. It was blown wide open as the year rolled on and the Raiders continued to struggle. The team that thrived in close games a year ago suddenly could not close out contests. A pair of losses would send the Raiders to 6-11 on the season, nowhere near the lofty expectations that were set after acquiring Devante Adams this offseason.

So what’s next for Carr? It seems like he will be searching for a new team this offseason. He won’t be shopping long. There are so many QB needy teams in the league right now, he will have his fair share of suitors. Before we get to where he might land, we need to figure out what the Raiders’ plan might be.

There certainly seems to be a shortage of quality NFL quarterbacks at the moment. There are something like a dozen teams who could be in the market for a new signal caller this offseason. It is a bit surprising to see the Raiders opt to get into the mix despite having at least an average starting option. It begs the question: how can they upgrade at the position? Is it even possible to upgrade this offseason?

Brady reportedly nearly joined the Raiders in 2020 before signing with the Buccaneers. (Wikimedia Commons)

Well, let’s look at some veteran options first. The first name that comes to mind is Tom Brady. Yes, the GOAT could very well leave Tampa Bay this offseason and head for a new team with a familiar face. He and Raiders coach Josh McDaniels worked together for a long time in New England, so this seems like a logical reunion. Las Vegas would unquestionably need to upgrade his protection either through the draft or in free agency. However, I imagine the prospect of throwing to Adams, Hunter Renfroe and Darren Waller would be an appealing one.

Otherwise, Jimmy Garoppolo feels like the only other seasoned signal caller that would be a viable option. He, like Brady, has history with McDaniels and will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Outside of Garoppolo, there aren’t too many realistic targets. I don’t expect Lamar Jackson to leave the Ravens. Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater don’t feel like upgrades. Perhaps the Raiders would hope to ride the Geno Smith wave, but that also feels unlikely.

If not a veteran, the draft is always an option. The Raiders are on track to land a top-10 pick in the draft. However, they find themselves behind as many as six different teams that could draft a quarterback this year. The Texans, Seahawks, Colts, Falcons, Lions and Panthers will all at least consider selecting a rookie QB. Some of that could be impacted by the offseason carousel, but I doubt that all six of those clubs will pass on a quarterback. At best, the Raiders would likely be taking the third or fourth choice passer from this class. Sometimes, that works out really well. Just ask the Bills. However, taking that would be a bold risk to take.

While the Raiders work on finding his replacement, Carr will be looking to refresh his career. Let’s take a look at where he might land.

Indianapolis Colts
Indy has been searching for a long-term solution at quarterback since Andrew Luck retired. After one-year rentals of Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan, Carr could end the search, at least for a few years. Calling Carr a bridge quarterback feels disrespectful given his success in the league and the fact he is only 31 years old. He would likely offer a lot more stability at the position than the Colts have had in years. If Indianapolis is able to land one of its top targets on the draft board, it currently holds the 5th overall pick, this likely won’t make sense, but if they want a veteran option to compete a bit faster and use that premium pick to bolster the roster elsewhere, Carr would be a logical choice.

New York Jets
Zach Wilson does not feel long for New York and Mike White has yet to really earn enough trust to be considered a long-term solution. Jimmy Garoppolo has been heavily linked to Gang Green given his connection to Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur, but Carr could be another viable option for a team that feels like it is a quarterback away from at least being in the Super Bowl conversation. Joe Douglas will need to revamp the offensive line in order for Carr to succeed, but that is likely true of any quarterback New York brings in.

New Orleans Saints
This probably would not be a huge upgrade over the contingent of Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston, but progress is progress. New Orleans’ cap situation seems horrible, but they find ways to get around that pretty much annually. With a number of talented players already on the roster (think Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Tyrann Mathieu, Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis, etc.), finding some stability at quarterback could go a long way to getting the Saints back on track in a weak division. New Orleans is technically still in the playoff hunt right now despite a 6-9 record. Without a first-round pick, there aren’t a ton of other options, so Carr could be a target.

Washington Commanders
This feels like a sneaky good option for Carr. Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson would give him a solid supporting cast. This team has a good defense and could use a boost at quarterback. Carson Wentz is very expendable and would actually save the Commanders roughly $26.2 million in cap space with zero dead cap. I don’t know if this move would make Washington a real contender, but if this team can compete for a playoff spot with below average quarterback play, even getting average quarterback play could go a long way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I did say that Brady’s exit from Tampa Bay felt likely, didn’t I? Maybe, he and Carr could just trade places. The Buccaneers do not have a true succession plan on the roster right now and with them in line to win the NFC South, it is unlikely they will be in position to draft a quarterback in the first round. Carr could help this team stay in contention in the division. A healthy offensive line plus receivers like Chris Godwin and Mike Evans could lead to a very successful offense. Carr is still young enough to be considered the present and the short-term future at the position.

Follow the Aftermath via email to get every article delivered right to your inbox. Enter your email in the text box to subscribe. You can also follow us on Facebook and Twitter. You can also check out our podcast Draft Season Never Ends, available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube.