Author: Chris McGlynn

Why even bother?

Chris McGlynn Basketball, NBA , ,

I was looking through the list of NBA champions last week when writing my commemoration to Moses Malone. While I was looking over that list, I noticed an interesting trend among NBA champions, one that I thought was kind of troubling.

The_NBA_Finals_logoWhat I am going to tell you will significantly help you in determining who will be meeting in the NBA Finals after the playoff field is set.

The NBA seeds it’s playoff teams one through eight in each conference at the end of the season. Theoretically, everyone has a chance to win the championship but looking at NBA history, that doesn’t seem to be statistically true. The likelihood that an eighth-seeded team winning the championship based on NBA history is zero.

1995NBAFinalsThere has never been an eight seed to win the NBA Finals. In fact there has never been a seven, five or four seed to win the title either. Only one time in the last 65 years that a team not seeded one through three has taken home the trophy. That only time came 20 years ago when the Houston Rockets won the title as the sixth-seeded team in the West. That is even more impressive when you consider that back then, each conference only sent six teams from each conference.

Getting to the finals is almost impossible for teams outside of the top three as well. Granted the NBA has only sent eight teams from each conference starting in 1984 but over the last 31 years, only four times in that span has a team seeded outside of the top three even made it to the finals. Those same Rockets were the first and then four years later, the Knicks shocked everyone as the only eight seed to ever make it to the finals. The Mavericks in 2006 and the Celtics in 2010 remain the only teams not seeded in the top three to qualify for the playoffs in that time span.

Before that, the trend wasn’t much better despite having fewer teams. The Seattle Supersonics in 1978 made the Finals as a four seed. The Rockets preceded their eventual underdog win with a trip to the Finals in 1981. They round out the list of just six teams outside of the top three to make the finals.

NBA logoIt has gotten to a point where you have to wonder if teams should even bother trying. Obviously, everyone will because you never know what might happen but overall, the odds are so stacked against teams that haven’t locked up a top three seed. There have been 248 teams to enter the playoffs as the bottom four seeds over the past 31 years. Just one of those teams has made it to the Finals (the 1999 Knicks).

The best teams in the league are supposed to move on to the Finals but it is staggering how much the seeding plays a roll in who make it to the championship round. You have to wonder if the NBA could find a way to make the playoffs more level. There probably isn’t much and we still see teams that are the lower seeds upsetting higher seeds. They just never seem capable of doing anything past that.

Part of the problem is the tendency for NBA superstars to team up and create super teams. That means that these lower seeded teams are either very young or completely lack the talent to compete. It is a product of the NBA’s roster structure. It is not necessarily a bad thing, it is just how the league tends to run.

It is also a product of having seven game series. Just because a team has a bad night does not mean they are out of the postseason. They have a number of opportunities to regain their ground and aren’t like to have four bad games against a lower level team. That limits an underdogs chance to advance because they need to outplay what is considered a superior team four times, rather than just one.

There always has to be a time where the underdog wins. It just makes sense. However, until it finally happens, you have to wonder why even bother. The chance that these teams make it to the Finals is low. The chance that they win the NBA Title, close to impossible. Yet it is sports so the manta “any given Sunday” will continue to drive underdogs. That is the beauty of sports.

Just an interesting trend I noticed that definitely tell you a lot about the NBA.

NFL Power Rankings: Week 3

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL, Power Rankings ,

Patriots Logo

1. New England Patriots (Last week: 1)
The Bills’ defense was supposed to thwart Brady. Instead, he was only sacked once, a testament to the play of the offensive line, and threw for 466 yards, a testament to how good Brady is. The defense didn’t seal the deal quite as convincingly as you would like but the defending champs are 2-0.

Packers logo2. Green Bay Packers (Last week: 2)
No Eddie Lacy, no Jordy Nelson? No problem for the league’s best quarterback. Aaron Rogers might not have had the best statistical night but he took it to the Seahawks. He exorcised some demons as well for the Fail Mary game and last year’s NFC championship game. Still a lot more to do but the Pack are in good shape right now.

Denver_Broncos3. Denver Broncos (Last week: 3)
The Broncos are beyond lucky to walk away with a win at Arrowhead. Two touchdowns in nine seconds completely flipped the script. The offense did just enough to keep Denver in it and the defense won the game for them. Peyton Manning needs to start handing out gift baskets full of Papa John’s pizza to thank the defense for carrying him to two wins so far.

Arizona_Cardnals_logo_(1994-2004)4. Arizona Cardinals (Last week: 5)
Dominating the Bears is always a good stat padder. Now the Cardinals have to take on division rival San Francisco. If the 49ers show up like they did in their season opener, Arizona will have their hands full.

Bengals Logo5. Cincinnati Bengals (Last week: 9)
Still no completely sold on Cincinnati as a title contender but they are starting to look a little more legitimate. The Bengals are very fortunate Giovani Bernard was there to pick up Jeremy Hill’s slack against San Diego. Next on the schedule, a chance to put the Ravens out of reach after just three games.

Chiefs Logo6. Kansas City Chiefs (Last week: 8)
That has to sting some. Kansas City outplayed Denver for a majority of the game on Thursday night. Unfortunately, Jamaal Charles had a very off night, fumbling twice and cost the team the game. They still move up a spot because of the issues Seattle, Dallas and Indy are facing.

Cowboys logo7. Dallas Cowboys (Last week: 6)
Well that was ugly. The Cowboys remain perfect on the season and sent home DeMarco Murray looking foolish. They also lost Tony Romo for the next eight weeks. This offense has a lot of reinventing to do with him and Bryant out for significant time.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers (Last week: 13)Pittsburgh_Steelers logo
Pittsburgh get LeVeon Bell back this week which means that the explosive offense we saw on Sunday is going to be even better. The defense is still a work in progress but it took a small step forward. San Francisco wasn’t much of a test though.

Seahawks logo9. Seattle Seahawks (Last week: 7)
Well they looked better against the Packers…kind of. Seattle has no identity on offense, a product of the front office trying to do too much. Jimmy Graham is no so silently fuming at his role with the team. Seattle desperately needs a win against the Bears to get back on track.

Colts logo10. Indianapolis Colts (Last week: 4)
Missing: Andrew Luck. Last seen dominating the NFL in 2014. Missing since the AFC Championship game. The Colts need to do something differently on offense to get the team moving in the right direction. Right now they have no direction or cohesion.

Falcons logo11. Atlanta Falcons (Last week: 18)
Two game winning drive in two weeks. Matty Ice is living up to his name. Atlanta now face the Romoless Cowboys and if they can walk away with a win this team will be in business.

Bills logo12. Buffalo Bills (Last week: 10)
Well so much for all of the hype. The defense had it’s hinges blown off and got to Brady just once the entire game. Buffalo made a late push but it was too little too late. That being said, they had a chance to tie it on that last drive. The Bills are still dangerous but have a little more developing to do first.

Jets logo13. New York Jets (Last week: 20)
Turnovers the Jets defense forced in 2014: 13. Turnovers the Jets defense forced through the first two weeks of 2015: 10. This defense is scary good and the offense is just good enough for them to win some games this year.

Vikings logo14. Minnesota Vikings (Last week: 15)
Minnesota finally remember that they had Adrian Peterson on the roster and fed him 29 times this weekend. That seems a little excess and the Vikings have to find a good balance between rushing and passing. Good win against a division rival though.

Dolphins logo15. Miami Dolphins (Last week: 11)
You got the sense that Miami wasn’t firing on all cylinders when they played Washington. Now we saw that on display with a loss to the in-state rival Jaguars. Ndamukong Suh apparently isn’t listening to the coaching staff and the ground game seems non-existent. Not good signs for the Dolphins.

Chargers logo16. San Diego Chargers (Last week: 14)
The come back proved to be too little too late. There were some positives from this performance though, including a much better outing by rookie running back Melvin Gordon.

Eagles Logo17. Philadelphia Eagles (Last week: 12)
The defense showed up in Week 2 but forgot to bring the offense with it. Holding Dallas to only 20 points was a pretty good showing, considering how frequently they were on the field and how many times Dallas had a short field. Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray have not been the explosive pairing the Eagles hoped for though.

Panthers logo18. Carolina Panthers (Last week: 23)
Don’t look now but the Panthers are 2-0. The wins were against the middling Jaguars and mediocre Texans but they are wins nonetheless. A win against the rival Saints would Carolina in a really good spot to contend for the NFC South crown.

Lions Logo19. Detroit Lions (Last week: 17)
Ill-timed penalties and poor offensive line play killed the Lions this week. Detroit had nothing going for them on the ground whatsoever. Finishing with 16 carries for 38 yards won’t win many football games.

Ravens logo20. Baltimore Ravens (Last week: 16)
The offense came to life, the defense disappeared. Losing to the Raiders is not something many playoff bound teams do during the course of the season. A loss to the Bengals this weekend would drop the Ravens to 0-3 for the first time in franchise history.

Rams logo21. St. Louis Rams (Last week: 23)
There are highs and lows to every NFL season. The Rams were coming off a high and crashed to a very uninviting low. Washington simply outplayed St. Louis and bullied them at the point of attack. The running game needs to get going again so they can take some pressure off of Nick Foles.

Raiders logo22. Oakland Raiders (Last week: 27)
Oakland earned a huge win this weekend over the Ravens. Now with a winnable game against Cleveland on the horizon, Oakland could end up with winning record for the first time since December of 2011.

49ers Logo23. San Francisco 49ers (Last week: 21)
Unfortunately, that was the 49ers team most of us assumed we would see during the season opener. The offense was outmatched and the defense looked helpless. Full scale collapse after a strong start.

Texans logo24. Houston Texans (Last week: 22)
I get that Arian Foster cannot play at the moment but there is still no reason the Texans should be throwing the ball 52 times in one game with Ryan Mallett at quarterback. Mallett isn’t that type of player. Bill O’Brien has to be smarter than that next week.

Browns logo25. Cleveland Browns (Last week: 26)
Johnny Manziel has played well in his first two games. There is significant room for improvement. However, it seems the Browns are going to roll with Josh McCown now that he is healthy. I can’t really understand why but it seems our time of watching Manziel scramble has come to an end. At least for now.

Giants Logo26. New York Giants (Last week: 25)
The Giants just became the first team ever to lose their first two games after leading by 10 points in the fourth quarter. Yes ever. These late game collapses are going to cost Tom Coughlin his job at year’s end if he cannot turn the team around.

Saints logo27. New Orleans Saints (Last week: 21)
Losing to the Cardinals is one thing. Losing to the Bucs is humiliating. The Saints are heading for another lost season right now and if Drew Brees cannot go against Carolina on Sunday, this team is as good as defeated.

Jaguars logo28. Jacksonville Jaguars (Last week: 29)
That win against Miami looked convincing. The ground game is still a long way from proven but Allen Robinson is starting to look like a real #1 receiver. If Jacksonville can weather the storm that will be the Patriots this week, they get Julius Thomas back in Week 4 and then this offense will hopefully take the next step.

Washington made up logo29. Washington (Last week: 31)
After losing DeSean Jackson, I did not expect Washington to get their first win any time soon. Washington dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, which got them the win. That one-two punch of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones could be something special.

Titans logo30. Tennessee Titans (Last week: 27)
Well the Titans returned to reality this weekend in a humbling loss to Cleveland. This is still a team with a rookie quarterback, a suspect receiving core and a defense that lacks playmakers. Tennessee still has a long way to go before they start challenging any one sincerely.

Buccaneers logo31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last week: 32)
Week 2 was truly crazy as even the Bucs got a W. Beating the Saints does not mean that we are going to see Tampa completely turn the season around but it shows that they can be competitive right now rather than in the future.

Bears logo32. Chicago Bears (Last week: 28)
Pitiful is probably the easiest way to describe how the Bears have played so far. Things probably will get worse before they get better too with Jay Cutler set to miss at least two weeks. The Bears have earned their spot in the basement, especially with so many teams around them winning this weekend.

Quarterback Carousel Continues to Spin

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , , , , , ,

What a whirl it has been already on the quarterback carousel in the NFL. We got a really early taste this year before the season even began when Geno Smith had his jaw broken by a teammate in the locker room. That thrust Ryan Fitzpatrick into the starting role and the Jets have opened their season 2-0.

Drew_BreesWeek 2 dealt some serious blows to the stability of the quarterback position across the league. Drew Brees played all of Sunday’s game against the Bucs but he may miss next week with a bruised rotator cuff. That would place journeyman Luke McCown into game action for the first time since November of 2011. That isn’t exactly reassuring for the Saints but Verizon has to be thrilled. Believe it or not this actually affects Mark Ingram more than anyone else. The former Heisman winner has never had the chance to be a feature back in an offense but if Brees cannot play or is limited, the focus quickly shift to him to deliver. And he will need to deliver fast because the Saints are 0-2. Panic Level: Moderate

Jay_CutlerIn the Windy City, the Bears are already in free fall and Jimmy Clausen is set to retake the starting role, if only temporarily. Jay Cutler has a hamstring injury that Chicago has said will keep him out at least two weeks. Clausen filled in for Cutler last year after the latter got benched. He was passable, tossing two touchdowns but also throwing a pick. The more concerning thing is that he actually sustained an injury in that game last year, forcing Cutler back into the lineup. If Clausen were to go down, Chicago would really be in trouble then. The last quarterback on the roster is youngster David Fales from San Jose State. If he has to start for the Bears, this team will be in full scale crisis mode. Panic Level: Low (they can’t be much worse).

Tony_RomoDallas ended up taking the brunt of the pain from the losses this week. Tony Romo fractured his left collarbone, which will keep him out for the next eight weeks. The Cowboys have already begun handling his loss. They placed Romo on the short-term IR and traded for veteran Matt Cassell as a reserve option if now-starter Branden Weeden struggles or suffers an injury himself. Neither quarterback is much good but they are both serviceable, which is the best Dallas could hope for as they try to ride out the storm. Despite losing Romo, the Cowboys could still hold the division lead when he comes back based on how poorly the rest of the division has played. However, with Dez Bryant also out for probably a similar time frame, things in Big D are shaky. Everything is bigger in Texas, including the panic that should be surrounding this team. Panic Level: High

Johnny Manziel

I am starting to wonder if the Browns are afraid of success. After nearly reaching .500 last season, Cleveland made a number of questionable veteran acquisitions, including Josh McCown. They needed a quarterback for sure but not many pegged McCown as their savior. McCown entered the season as the starter but a nasty hit in the season opener left him with a concussion. In stepped the polarizing Johnny Manziel. He was far from perfect or even polished but he was productive. Posting to three touchdowns to just one interception in roughly seven quarters of relief work isn’t bad. The four fumbles are definitely concerning but Manziel has regularly kept plays alive and made something out of nothing. He isn’t throwing for a ton of yards but his is picking up a lot of yards when he does throw. He has been electric and exciting, something Cleveland has not had in a while, but the Browns maintain that once McCown is healthy, he will get his job back. I know I initially advocated against it, but after two weeks, I would like to see some more Johnny Football. They won too in Week 2, which is definitely a positive. A game against the Raiders could be winnable as well and would be a really good test for the young Manziel. Cleveland fans should actually start to panic if their original starter is in fact healthy, oddly enough. Panic Level: Moderate

Who does Dallas turn to now?

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , ,
Dez_Bryant
The Cowboys have not announced a return date for Bryant and have said that it is a week-to-week evaluation.

When things go bad, you hope they just don’t get worse. Well things just got a lot worse for the Cowboys. Dallas just entered crisis mode.

Week one saw Dallas’ leading receiver Dez Bryant suffer a major foot injury that required surgery. Bryant, who just signed a five-year $70 million contract this offseason, is rumored to miss anywhere from 6 to 12 weeks with the injury. The number seems to be up in the air.

That was catastrophic for the Cowboys. Bryant accounted for 1,320 yards and 16 touchdowns a season ago. That loss was not ideal but then the unthinkable happened.

Tony_Romo
Romo’s timetable for return has not been established yet.

He dropped back, he turned to scramble and he lost the ball. He then received a crushing hit that drove his left shoulder into the ground. Tony Romo didn’t get up for a while after that. The Dallas medical staff charged onto the field. Romo eventually walked off under his own power, holding his arm gingerly.

It looked bad and it is no doubt that Romo will miss some extended time. He has been officially diagnosed with a broken left clavicle. No timeline has been set yet but when Romo broke his right clavicle a couple of years back, he missed 10 weeks of the season.

Dallas cannot afford to lose Romo for 10 weeks this year. That paired with the injury to Bryant is going to cripple this offense for the most part. The offensive line is still great and the combo of Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar can lead the running game but the passing game is as good as dead. Brandon Weeden is the only other quarterback the Cowboys have on the roster at the moment. That is far from a reassuring thing.

Brandon Weeden
Weeden (left) is a veteran who could bridge the gap until Romo’s return but has been uneven in his appearances.

Weeden in his career has been mediocre at best. He started his career in Cleveland, but that was short-lived as his reputation for committing turnovers lost him the job. In 28 career games, Weeden has 28 interceptions and 12 fumbles. That is not exactly reassuring for your starting quarterback. It is hard to say those days are behind him either. He played great in relief of Romo but in the only game he started last season, Weeden threw two interceptions, fumbled once and completed only 55 percent of his passes.

Even if Jerry Jones and the Dallas coaching staff thinks Weeden is the man for them to start next week against Atlanta, they are going to need to sign another quarterback. Someone needs to back up Weeden next weekend.

Matt Flynn is among the names that will float out. He has had some success as a starter in Green Bay and could be a good back up. Kyle Orton is officially retired but Dallas could coax him off his couch. He has a lot of experience as a spot starter all over the league and actually played for the Cowboys as recently as 2013. One last option that might appeal to Dallas would be bringing Dustin Vaughn back. He was signed by the Cowboys in 2014 as an undrafted free agent so he has some familiarity with the team already and looked good at times in the preseason.

The Cowboys brought in Brice Butler already from the Raiders at receiver and will continue to rely even more heavily on Terrance Williams. I already mentioned the running backs. Dallas will need to work hard to establish the run early and often going forward. With all of the options they have at running back, which will eventually include Christine Michael, Dallas should be able to alternate them to keep everyone fresh and have a solid ground game.

Despite being 2-0, Dallas has to feel like it is in a major rut at the moment. Losing your top receiver and starting quarterback in a two-week span is not something many teams are able to overcome. Looking past the Atlanta game, the Cowboys have a winnable game against the Saints before hosting the defending Patriots. Following its bye, Dallas heads to New York for a rematch with the Giants. Then the Seahawks visit Big D. That is a very tough slate for the Cowboys.

Dallas could find a way to weather the storm but that is unlikely. With the Cowboys sliding, and both Philly and New York sitting at 0-2, Washington suddenly seems to be in a good spot. This division is an absolute toss-up the rest of the way.

If Dallas has any hopes of finishing on top of the pile, it needs to find a couple of new offensive weapons. Bryant and Romo will eventually be back but until then, Dallas will have a tough time making ends meet.

Seattle tried to fix what wasn’t broken

Chris McGlynn Football, NFL , , ,
Jimmy_Graham
Graham joined the Seahawks this offseason after five years in New Orleans.

On paper, it seemed like it would boost them to another level. No one would be able to touch the Seahawks after adding Jimmy Graham.

Fast forward a few months and Seattle finds themselves on the losing end of a game with the Rams in which the defending NFC champions they allowed Russell Wilson to be sacked six times. On a critical fourth and one, the offensive line got absolutely no push and Marshawn Lynch was stopped in the backfield. In the process of trying to elevate their offense to another level, the Seahawks created a whole new issue.

Max_Unger
Unger was elected to the Pro Bowl twice in his five years with the Seahawks.

Landing Graham was a big addition but it completely gutted the offensive line. As part of the deal, Seattle had to send All-Pro center Max Unger and a first round pick to the Saints. Remember also that left guard James Carpenter left this offseason in free agency and right tackle Breno Giacomini hit the road a year earlier. Suddenly, Seattle only has two of its offensive linemen that won the Super Bowl in 2014.

These problems should not come as a surprise to the Seattle front office either. The Seahawks have been great at finding the next man up to fill the void but that can only work so often. They rolled out a very inexperienced line. Center Drew Nowak made his first career start. Right tackle Gary Gillman made his second. Justin Britt entered only his second season as the starter. Everyone has to get their first start at some point but usually you don’t throw that many inexperienced players out to play at once and expect a good result.

Now, they look like a team without an identity on offense, stuck between wanting to join the vertical passing trend and sticking to their hard-nose grind it out approach they’ve had for the last five years. It has created a difficult situation for Seattle’s offense.

Between all four preseason games and the season opener, the Seahawks’ offensive line has allowed 20 sacks. That’s an average of four sacks a game and that doesn’t even take into account how many other times Wilson gets hit. Sure, the preseason does not count but more often than not, those tendencies you see in the preseason can continue to persist come the regular season.

Graham, over the course of the season, should prove to do well over the course of the season but not enough to justify dismantling the offensive line. I also don’t think Graham will ever be as effective as he was in a Saints uniform.

In addition to trading away Unger, Seattle could have spent that pick to improve their line even further with players like Nick Morse, Donovan Smith and Jake Fischer still on the board at number 31. Even if they weren’t starters, they could end up with some good line depth. Especially with Gillman listed as questionable heading into the season. The only depth they have is the inconsistent Alvin Bailey. Had they gone that route, we would be looking at the Seahawks offensive line as a strength rather than a weakness.

Russell_Wilson
Wilson signed a four-year $87.6 million contract this offseason.

Over time, this offensive line can develop some chemistry and gain confidence. This was not the start they needed or one that should have happened. Seattle did not have a proper contingency plan in place to deal with these major losses. Instead, they brought in Graham, who does not fit the system at all. On top of that, the Seahawks just invested a ton of money in Wilson, but what good is that if he consistently finds himself on his back. Wilson is definitely mobile enough to avoid the pressure but he cannot be counted to do that on every play.

The Seahawks panicked after the Super Bowl and tried to make a major change. If you ask me, Seattle just greatly shortened their championship window. Marshawn Lynch probably won’t play more than another two years in the league and now Seattle is trying to recreate their offensive line rather than making that push to win another title.

The saying goes though, if it ain’t broke, then don’t fix it. Clearly that wasn’t something John Schneider heard enough in Seattle.